What Will Happen When the Fed Finally Cuts Rates

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  • Опубліковано 15 жов 2024
  • All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition.
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    PBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certain
    www.pbs.org/ne...
    Morningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates
    www.morningsta...
    FOMC Transcript March 1991
    www.federalres...
    Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
    Rules vs. discretionary monetary policy
    At the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, California
    September 5, 1997
    www.federalres...
    www.eurodollar...
    Twitter: / jeffsnider_edu

КОМЕНТАРІ • 246

  • @Kin-28-8
    @Kin-28-8 2 місяці тому +209

    Fed drops rates, we will see a massive depression. Inflation will skyrocket. Lets hope for a good news , how can one diversify $80k portfolio in this current state of the market

    • @Theodorebarba
      @Theodorebarba 2 місяці тому +5

      The Fed is already lowering the rates by buying all the debt in the market. so i suggest you get a financial expert for your portfolio in this state of time , for a successful trading .

    • @Michaelparker12
      @Michaelparker12 2 місяці тому +4

      Agreed, I’ve been investing in the market for 11 years now, last 4 years with the help of a fiduciary advisor apparently due to the covid-19 pandemic crash. Throughout these years of guidance, I've been fortunate enough to 10x my return as a DIY investor, summing up nearly $1m ROI as of today.

    • @Agatha.wayne0
      @Agatha.wayne0 2 місяці тому +3

      I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advisor? I'll be happy to use some help

    • @Michaelparker12
      @Michaelparker12 2 місяці тому +3

      Jessica Lee Horst is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

    • @DhanaPayar
      @DhanaPayar 2 місяці тому +2

      I just looked up your coach and she seems very rich. Need to change the trajectory of my finances, will definitely work with her

  • @tatianastarcic
    @tatianastarcic 2 місяці тому +246

    Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.

    • @berniceburgos-
      @berniceburgos- 2 місяці тому +4

      The financial market is a reliable choice. Diversify your portfolio with I-bonds, stocks (ETFs, REITs, dividend-paying stocks), and bitcoin. Given your budget, I recommend hiring a fiduciary to ensure you receive professional insights for a fee.

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 2 місяці тому +4

      It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

    • @BridgetMiller-
      @BridgetMiller- 2 місяці тому +4

      Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 2 місяці тому +3

      My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

    • @Michaelparker12
      @Michaelparker12 2 місяці тому +2

      Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.

  • @kortyEdna825
    @kortyEdna825 2 місяці тому +254

    The belief that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates was the driving force behind the entire economic chaos. What should we do now that we have a situation where interest rates are crashing? At this point, how would you suggest that I safely allocate $300k?

    • @PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io
      @PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io 2 місяці тому +4

      Although the market is currently volatile, aren't the current valuations a result of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and low interest rates? Therefore, my recommendation is that you consult a financial advisor who can give you entry and exit points for the shares that you are interested in.

    • @Justinmeyer1000
      @Justinmeyer1000 2 місяці тому +2

      I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.

    • @Justinmeyer1000
      @Justinmeyer1000 2 місяці тому +2

      There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @KaurKhangura
      @KaurKhangura 2 місяці тому +1

      Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

  • @cowymtber
    @cowymtber 2 місяці тому +9

    Great presentation Jeff! Your best I have seen to date.

  • @johncolombo3283
    @johncolombo3283 2 місяці тому +25

    Most have damaged their credit completely just to get through this

    • @markmencer9244
      @markmencer9244 2 місяці тому +2

      Yep. Record late Cc payments across all types of loans- 30, 60, 90 and 120 days ..One third of CC users are maxed out on their cards...Long term unemployment up and growing so they aren't counted in the unemployment rate that's published, which is up to 4.4% from 3.4% in about a year's time.

    • @donotreportmebro
      @donotreportmebro 2 місяці тому

      it's only the case for the poor, everybody else keeps getting 5% balance transfers with 0% intro apr for 1.5 years, rates increases only hurt poor and the lower half of the middle class

    • @clipperMG
      @clipperMG 2 місяці тому +1

      Yeah, but we have to remember to think about what can be when we cut rates- unburdened by what has been. Or some other nonsense Kamala Harris word saladed at the American people in response to something important.

    • @JohnShalamskas
      @JohnShalamskas Місяць тому

      @@clipperMG That "unburdened" quote Kamala keeps repeating is about communism wiping the slate clean to make fresh new mistakes.

  • @selenajack2036
    @selenajack2036 2 місяці тому +120

    Considering the shaky economy, I'm keen to know best, how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and sometimes earn up to $160K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.

    • @kaylawood9053
      @kaylawood9053 2 місяці тому +2

      thats personal, you should connect with an advisor for proper financial/investment planning, never can tell what the future holds

    • @hushbash2989
      @hushbash2989 2 місяці тому +1

      No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

    • @bsetdays6784
      @bsetdays6784 2 місяці тому +3

      That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advsors.

    • @hushbash2989
      @hushbash2989 2 місяці тому +2

      Lauren Marie Ehlers is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

    • @roddywoods8130
      @roddywoods8130 2 місяці тому +1

      Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

  • @MrCapitalizer
    @MrCapitalizer 2 місяці тому +11

    So cuts are much more a signal that things are going to fall off a cliff than a remedy for the disaster.

  • @swedo12
    @swedo12 2 місяці тому +6

    might be the most succinct Ive heard you describe the creation of money and the myth of fed control. good work.

  • @MrCapitalizer
    @MrCapitalizer 2 місяці тому +4

    Wow, thanks Jeff. Mind blowing stuff here. After the cuts the economic pain just ramps up and the stock market is known to start crashing when the labor market breaks.

  • @vgernyc
    @vgernyc 2 місяці тому +14

    I would argue it is working as designed. We're the ones duped into thinking this is not what to expect.

  • @blahblahuserrandomnameblahb
    @blahblahuserrandomnameblahb 2 місяці тому +7

    The fact the Fed hasn't cut rates yet, to me it's already too late for a recession because the real economy is already in dire straits so you know like if so many businesses and companies have already gone bankrupt and then you say 'oh we're cutting rates to 0% now', how does that benefit the companies that are now in liquidation? it doesn't because they've already fired everyone and already have administrators selling the kitchen cupboards. There's no-one left to borrow so the 0% rate has no effect. Only a new company or new business would benefit from it and that takes years starting over.

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      Yeap. Fed can do nothing about it but pretend. The little big difference now is probably the dollar will loose it!s status and make in it much much worse. Feel bad for my friends there.
      Best wishes.
      As raun Paul said: the market always wins.
      Or Wall Street movie: no one beats the market.

    • @NORMIES_GET_OUT
      @NORMIES_GET_OUT 2 місяці тому +1

      Yes, that's how the cycle works. Think of it like the economy pruning the unsustainable businesses and making room for new ones to have their opportunity. Businesses with sound financials will survive the recession, though their growth will shrink and many will even downsize their operations. That's what leads to the high unemployment rates.
      As the economy recovers, new businesses will form and the ones that cut costs and survived will move back into a growth cycle, and unemployment will recover.
      The only problem is the, "too big to fail" businesses that will inevitably get bailed out at a huge cost to taxpayers, making the pain worse before it gets better.

  • @joycekoch5746
    @joycekoch5746 2 місяці тому +7

    I'm raising cash to look for opportunities in 2026.

  • @SuperTheLycan
    @SuperTheLycan 2 місяці тому +6

    Nice story, but very simplistic. Rate cuts influence treasuries/govt bonds and encourage investment and consumption. You have nowhere to get 5% safe interest anymore so you're forced to spend. Withdrawal from govt bonds is done within months/years as they expire, so you cannot assume that if the fed rate goes down, then the next month everything goes back to as before.

    • @canadianrepublican1185
      @canadianrepublican1185 2 місяці тому

      That being said, the rates are actually in order to get people to but government debt, which then fund the government. This is why south american countries will be up to 12% for their bonds, they need to compete to get people to buy, which causes demand. Who wants to buy a US bond with a debt to GDP of 120%, or with the knowledge that there is no way to pay the debt off without inflating it away.

    • @darbycorphealth1577
      @darbycorphealth1577 2 місяці тому

      I am still learning, but looking at those graphs it occurred to me that changing the rate produces a lagging effect. Or it could. There seems to be a correlation, if not immediate positive causation.

    • @darbycorphealth1577
      @darbycorphealth1577 2 місяці тому

      Essentially, I would need to see a control example where unemployment rises and no rate cuts occur to see whether they have any effect whatsoever. Someone who believes in the power of rates cuts might very well say, “unemployment would have been much worse had we not cut rates.” I lean philosophically speaking towards doing nothing at all because it seems like intervention in the form of rate cuts distorts market signals preventing a real correction. At the very least, doing nothing would let us find bottom, a true correction, but if values are completely distorted every time a correction presents itself and creative destruction that would otherwise offer clarity and help us discover what’s real and what’s fugazi never occurs.

  • @wagashiohagi
    @wagashiohagi 2 місяці тому +17

    I want to ask Steve how his SEC Compliance Request investigation is going. I want to ask George if he's still running his "act/the" con. I want to thank Jeff for being on the other side of the Short TLT/Long TBT trade for the past four years.

    • @silkysixx
      @silkysixx 2 місяці тому +1

      What is god “act/the” con?

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi 2 місяці тому

      @@silkysixx Type his name and "act/the" con and you shall see...

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi 2 місяці тому

      Type his name and "act/the" con and you shall see...

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi 2 місяці тому

      @@silkysixx Let me know what you find!

    • @silkysixx
      @silkysixx 2 місяці тому

      @@wagashiohagi I find literally nothing.

  • @pcpholt2012
    @pcpholt2012 2 місяці тому +2

    The rates need to go higher.

  • @Gattberserk
    @Gattberserk 2 місяці тому +2

    FED in 2008 cut rate when sahm recession indicator was only at 0.17. Now it is already 0.43 haha, and rate cute is still 2 months away.

  • @KierzolSLU
    @KierzolSLU 2 місяці тому +10

    Waiting for black swan it's gonna be like christmas time but only for few, 90% of people again going to loose a lot of money. I'm with you Jeff and can't wait for first rate cut to short crypto market 🥰

    • @jonEmontana
      @jonEmontana 2 місяці тому

      Same. Been a while to wait ....but because this admin has been off the rails reckless on so much policy .....I've felt that t he swan will come and stay patient like many. I still feel I made big mistake xferring most of my 401k to money market while i wait.....I figure waiting to redeploy will make me more $ in the long run vs staying invested and gambling on reckless

    • @murdochz
      @murdochz 2 місяці тому

      Short crypto? Won’t crypto pump with rate cuts news?

    • @Seany06
      @Seany06 2 місяці тому

      ​@@murdochzthe prevailing mantra is that markets dump when rates are cut at least at first

    • @nesq4104
      @nesq4104 2 місяці тому +1

      The black swan is definitely coming because the Kabal is really active the last week

    • @ronaldl9085
      @ronaldl9085 2 місяці тому +1

      @@murdochz My thoughts too. With lower rates and a devaluation of the US dollar (Trump's plan) investors will look for a new safe haven ... e.g. gold/ silver/ BTC etc.

  • @jeffnelson4489
    @jeffnelson4489 2 місяці тому +5

    Since 87 the 90% went from 40% of total wealth to 30% due to fed loose rates.

    • @DaveDDD
      @DaveDDD 2 місяці тому

      And gov policies that benefit the wealthy. More the top 1% rather than the top 10% though.

    • @FeelingPeculiar
      @FeelingPeculiar 2 місяці тому +2

      Huh?

    • @jeffnelson4489
      @jeffnelson4489 2 місяці тому

      @@FeelingPeculiar can you understand the words coming out of my mouth?

  • @Gary-vo9rm
    @Gary-vo9rm 2 місяці тому +2

    It IS good to hear channels not devoted to finance, discuss ending the _"fed."_ This mentality seems more common these days. Maybe the web IS good for more than just humiliating others :-)

    • @wojak86
      @wojak86 2 місяці тому +1

      H.R. 8421 Abolish the federal reserve

  • @tradermunky1998
    @tradermunky1998 2 місяці тому +1

    Great stuff tonight Jeff! But certainly this time is different. The Fed now knows EXACTLY what to do, nail it, and we soft land. Maybe no land! 🎉 😂

  • @MrDayinthepark
    @MrDayinthepark 2 місяці тому +1

    The "duel mandate" has changed, and this is something even the Fed won't admit, but their new mandates are three: 1) price stability, 2) full employment, and now 3) protect the dollar in absence of the Petrodollar agreement. If you're wondering why they aren't lowering rates, this is it!

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому +1

      BINGO, give this person a gold star. The flow of money internationally is changing. The domestic money supply of dollars vs the world supply of dollars is changing its equilibrium. The FED is going to be fighting an inflationary fear of hyperinflation domestically for the foreseeable future. buy gold

  • @displayname7t4
    @displayname7t4 2 місяці тому +1

    A question concerning the GFC around 17:00, you say none of what the FED does works. Then why did the economy eventually start recovering around 2012? Could it be that there was a lag to the 0 interest rates and 2 QE or was it rather something else entirely that has nothing to do with what the FED did?

  • @Car-guy307
    @Car-guy307 2 місяці тому +2

    They can’t cut over the long term, rising debt means treasury yields will be going up over the next 5 years 😮😮😮

  • @robfrmny21
    @robfrmny21 2 місяці тому +1

    Maybe credit card companies shouldn’t be allowed to charge anything north of 15% interest.

  • @Gary-vo9rm
    @Gary-vo9rm 2 місяці тому +1

    Great graphics. Besides the *_"Great Oz"_* one, the pointer on your charts aren't teeny weeny girly pointers, but manly, *bold* ones we can see - I feel like eating some beef and pumping some iron :-)

  • @megowopwop8545
    @megowopwop8545 2 місяці тому +11

    how does Jeff continue to say this shit with a straight face. he has been wrong for 3 years now. even if he is right in the long run, anyoke listening to him in last 3 years would be so wrecked

    • @genestone4951
      @genestone4951 2 місяці тому

      There's no trading advice in these videos. If you think there is, that's on you. The problem comes from making some incorrect assumptions about what wins in trading. Ppl assume that you have to accurately predict the future in order to succeed. That is incorrect.

    • @Micfri300
      @Micfri300 2 місяці тому +1

      On the Chinese economy he is right.
      And who imports and exports the most from China?
      New zealand..
      Look at how weak their currency is.

    • @eTriumph0719
      @eTriumph0719 2 місяці тому

      We been in a recession for awhile so he has been right

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      Jeff's analysis is more academic than practical. Most of the time. In some ways more suited for micro than macro. The world behaves differently with corruption. The way markets should work and the way they do work is two different things with two different outcomes.

  • @sebastiancioek5970
    @sebastiancioek5970 2 місяці тому +3

    The next unemployment wave will be different than before - build due the AI replace employees

  • @darthstarone3532
    @darthstarone3532 2 місяці тому +5

    Too late the yield curve is starting to uninvert 🤬

    • @FeelingPeculiar
      @FeelingPeculiar 2 місяці тому

      Why

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      @@FeelingPeculiarbecause short term rates increasing means the value of the short term debt is going down.
      Which by the way U.S obligation are mostly short term, and what they did before 2020 was selling long term deber and buy short term debet but theycan no longer do it.
      Imaginen billions selling at once.
      Right : CRASH

  • @who2u333
    @who2u333 2 місяці тому +5

    Rate cuts can't save us from what we are already in right? We have been told repeatedly that we are already in a recession.

    • @DonalldArmentor
      @DonalldArmentor 2 місяці тому

      Since last October at least. But they will wait for Trump to be inaugurated, then they correct all their past economic lies and blame it all on him. WEF Democrat minions will go back to obstruction like his last term.

  • @gbracht3746
    @gbracht3746 2 місяці тому

    So I see the dynamic between fed rates and unemployment. However, what happens to inflation? Further what happens to growth as depicted by market indices? Perhaps adding these two measures to your charts would strengthen your arguments.

  • @leebeidelman
    @leebeidelman 2 місяці тому +1

    Wow. If you just look at the charts, the Fed cutting rates means that unemployment will go up! Now I know correlation doesn’t prove causation, but still! But the long term trends are still the same. The value of the dollar has been going down for more than 50 years. And the wealth of the top 10 percent has been going up, while the wealth of the bottom 90 percent has been declining. End the Fed!

  • @i6power30
    @i6power30 2 місяці тому +1

    Unemployment is just a delayed function of recession. Economy has to go bad first, before companies start laying people off. Rate cut will not fix economy overnight, hence you see the unemployment rate continues to climb after some time rate cuts.

  • @allsportsexpert
    @allsportsexpert 2 місяці тому +11

    The Fed was cutting rates too late in all his examples. There is always a lag of 12 to 24 months in cutting rates to improvement of the economy. Cutting rates definitely improves the economy, with a large lag.

    • @boot-strapper
      @boot-strapper 2 місяці тому +3

      "improves". No, it inflates.

    • @DonalldArmentor
      @DonalldArmentor 2 місяці тому

      They cut rates after recession has already started. Basically out of panic

    • @allsportsexpert
      @allsportsexpert 2 місяці тому

      @boot-strapper The Fed had cut rates many many times between 1982 to 2018, where was the rising inflation each time? There hadn't any rising inflation between those years.

    • @boot-strapper
      @boot-strapper 2 місяці тому +1

      @@allsportsexpert is that why things that used to cost 1 buck went to 5 bucks? Pretty much any item

    • @allsportsexpert
      @allsportsexpert 2 місяці тому

      @boot-strapper please learn about macroeconomics before we talk more. Hint: it is not good if prices stay the same for 40+ years. It is not good with Biden's high inflation either.

  • @bpb5541
    @bpb5541 2 місяці тому

    No once can be 100 percent sure what happens when they cut... but if history has anything to say about it we have a pretty good idea. And most folks think a cut is a bullish event... when it is not if we look back in history. So for me... a cut is the time to get out of the longs and short. Simple as that.

  • @jeremylongstreet7613
    @jeremylongstreet7613 2 місяці тому +1

    But isn't the FED Funds rate what is the cornerstone behind the Commercial real estate bubble and bust?

  • @iancormie9916
    @iancormie9916 2 місяці тому +4

    The unemployment rate continued to go up. Where did the jobs go? - Congress exported them to China, and the Profits went to Wall Street.
    Main street has been taken to the cleaners ever since Reagan started trickle down economics

    • @mostsacredstories
      @mostsacredstories 2 місяці тому

      Good news is China isn't getting any of those jobs anymore. Mexico on the other hand...

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      Trickle down golden showers.

  • @Joshuatree7746
    @Joshuatree7746 2 місяці тому +6

    Most ppl don’t have an answer to how to stimulate the economy but plenty of opinions on how bad the economy. So we get nothing practical or insightful from anyone, including Jeff.

    • @genestone4951
      @genestone4951 2 місяці тому

      Read my comment above about what Trump plans to do to the American economy. If you go down that rabbit hole, you will have PLENTY of new investment ideas. But this is stuff that requires thinking like a hedge fund manager, not like somebody looking to be fed by a youtube channel,

    • @motrock93b
      @motrock93b 2 місяці тому

      There are plenty of people with plenty of ideas on how to stimulate the economy. Jeff is pointing out how the Fed hasn't been effective in their strategies, which is a reasonable evaluation. Do you expect him to outline an economic plan for recovery? His videos would get a lot longer.

  • @rupertsmith6097
    @rupertsmith6097 2 місяці тому

    This presentation does not seem to take the lag effect into account. Should look at fed funds rate effect on what happens 18 months later, to see the correlation?

  • @canadianrepublican1185
    @canadianrepublican1185 2 місяці тому

    I think when talking about the Federal Funds rate and employment you need to also show the stock market graph over that same period, and also the housing cost over that same period.

  • @mathewhunt6365
    @mathewhunt6365 2 місяці тому +2

    Ok, if it's the Not Great Recession and the Global Not Financial Crisis, then what was it?? 🤔

  • @jcisme
    @jcisme 2 місяці тому +2

    This time will be different..

  • @johnryskamp2943
    @johnryskamp2943 2 місяці тому +2

    To be specific, low rates do not increase economic activity. What will increase U.S. economic activity?
    Note that NO ONE ever responds to this question. Not Jeff, not any commenter.

    • @waltertodd4479
      @waltertodd4479 2 місяці тому

      Lower taxes? 😂

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      To be specific, low rates do not always increase economic activity.
      To be specific, lower taxes do not always increase economic activity.
      Don't even get me started on Laffer's slight of hand nonsense.
      What will increase US economic activity?
      You could try competition vs oligopoly pricing with Sherman anti trust. Creative destruction.

  • @IKTGWIW
    @IKTGWIW 2 місяці тому +2

    If the Fed had not cut rate, the economy would have gotten even worse. For example, let's try the opposite: raise rate while the economy is going down. What do you think will happen? It's like stopping the Titanic. It takes time to reverse the course.

    • @SuperTheLycan
      @SuperTheLycan 2 місяці тому

      he just wants views, this is what I notice occasionally.

  • @davidbakara5044
    @davidbakara5044 2 місяці тому

    Waiting to deploy some dry powder, but stocks just keep climbing, and real estate is still stupid high. Will pick up some Au till something breaks. May be a little longer than we think.

  • @mohlini1
    @mohlini1 2 місяці тому

    Thanks Jeff

  • @mathewhunt6365
    @mathewhunt6365 2 місяці тому +1

    Can you imagine a world where the Politburo doesn't set interest rates? 🤔

  • @ronaldl9085
    @ronaldl9085 2 місяці тому

    Could you do a video on Trumponomics ( no taxes in the USA, high import taxes on all goods, devaluation of the USA dollar)?
    Would these plans actually work out for the better for the USA?
    Or would it start massive inflation and the US dollar losing its reserve currency status?

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      The dollar is finished, they will launch the digital. Probably will not remain reserve, they relied on a recession hitting when rates were near 0 so they could drop to -.
      The thing now is damage control.
      Trump plans will be a total collapse, think they want a controled implosion.

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      The US dollar is already losing its reserve currency exclusivity.
      Trump's vision of Trumponomics is allusive. The signaling criteria and action criteria is so often out of wack that it is hard to ascertain what Trumponomics even is?????

  • @larslarsheim1741
    @larslarsheim1741 2 місяці тому +3

    Powell will not cut in September..he's gonna bust out the moneychangers

  • @jcgoogle1808
    @jcgoogle1808 2 місяці тому +2

    I always thought rate policy was to fight inflation,.. not unemployment.
    That the pattern has generally always been that the Fed funds rate is high while inflation is high and unemployment low,... and that once inflation is at or nearing target and unemployment ticks up that's when the Fed cuts rates.
    The unemployment continuing to rise is just the lag effect or momentum at best and a recession at worst resulting from rates being too high for too long.
    In other words it's not surprising to see rates and unemployment 180 degree out of phase with each other.
    Kind of gives merit to the Phillips Curve.
    We're more used to seeing fed rates plotted with inflation.
    And in the 80's, 90's and '00's,.. full employment was considered to be at or below 5%.

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      I always thought that the fed fund rate policy was to promote a stable currency and full employment. Full employment is a euphemism for suppressing wages as a means to fight inflation.
      The Phillips Curve has proven to be inconsistent and therefore inconclusive. Correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation.
      As for the FED, monetarism is junk science better suited for wage suppression than economic stability. An empire of lies.
      The FED has never "controlled" the interest rate. The best it can do is influence them with the fed fund rate.

  • @danstreazy8026
    @danstreazy8026 2 місяці тому +2

    20-30% reset on correction/recession to open up buying opportunities if not welcome to Japan and economic malaise for a decade or three.

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому +1

      Yep, economic malaise for a decade or three with sticky pricing locking the Home market prices up higher than they should be.

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому +1

      stagflation

  • @timothylarson4587
    @timothylarson4587 2 місяці тому

    Who's threatening the Fed do not cut the rates, yeah let's put that guy in office he knows so much.

  • @maryluw9915
    @maryluw9915 2 місяці тому

    Excellent video!!

  • @JackHawkinswrites
    @JackHawkinswrites 2 місяці тому

    No border security package, no rate cuts, the felon is wrecking the future.

  • @blackstarmaster
    @blackstarmaster 2 місяці тому +1

    Surferboy with truckercap is missing at the live stream? 😢

    • @JSniderDebunkedgoldspansubstak
      @JSniderDebunkedgoldspansubstak 2 місяці тому +2

      You mean the guy that blew up his hedge fund?

    • @blackstarmaster
      @blackstarmaster 2 місяці тому +1

      @@JSniderDebunkedgoldspansubstak better going out there push forward and fail, than only standing at the cheap places in the second raw of the audiece and point finegers at the the others.

    • @JSniderDebunkedgoldspansubstak
      @JSniderDebunkedgoldspansubstak 2 місяці тому +1

      @@blackstarmaster LoL first of all, your grammar is abhorrent. Second, Hendry lost billions of other people's money.

  • @hb490
    @hb490 2 місяці тому

    We need sound money, period!

  • @tboughnou
    @tboughnou Місяць тому

    in my experience the FED is like a bad party guest... they come late, stay too long, and won't leave

  • @alangivre2474
    @alangivre2474 2 місяці тому +3

    Rate cuts do work, but it takes around 18 months to work.

  • @jameslee-dp6cb
    @jameslee-dp6cb 2 місяці тому

    You ignore the known lag effect of the FEDs efforts. It has been determined that there is an 18 month to24 month lag effect to what the FED does. Its well known to company CEOs and economist. I personally think the interest rate hikes are overused at time. But inflaion is difficut to manage in any scenario. I was a young boy when the FED first introduced rate hikes. It was 1972, and the economy's inflation jumped extremely high. The FED responded with double digit interest rates. So you cant tell me kid that interest rate hikes dont work, but the over use of rate hikes can basically destroy the economy. It worked fine until NAFTA was introduced. Then, companies started setting up shop in other cuntries where labor was cheap. It made everything worse for the nation. It really helped the corporations, but it really took its toll on the labor force. Less factory workers in the US borders meant less consumers. In the 1960s, we built almost everything we needed as a nation, but now, we import almost everything we need. This has really destroyed our nations wealth. And it all began to really deteriate after NAFTA was introduced. Soon, NAFTA will either be repealed or the largest consumer economy on the globe will suddenly disappear. And when thats gone, so are the companies that lobbied Congress for NAFTA in the first place. A nation cant send jobs overseas and expect that sooner or later, the lack of jobs in the nation wont affect consumerism since the employees were the consumers paying their high prices for goods. Now, its just about played out. Consumers in the US are pretty tapped out and price ajustments are going to have to take place from these companies or they will go out of business. You can blame the FED all you want, but without the FED intervention, you would be paying much higher prices for everything right now. Its that simple. Are they holding for too long this time? Maybe. Its new territory. We shall see.

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      Well nafta is gone now is USMCA and your idol did it.
      The inflation of the 70’s was due speculators betting the U.S will go broke due Vietnam, actually NIXON states on he’s speech taking the dollar out of gold standard was to prove them the U.S is # 1.
      Now they bet need of financing will surpass buyers, and they are correct.
      With out nafta The dollar would have become toilet paper long time ago.
      Hope you have your own house really.
      Best wishes.

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      And as you said by jenuary 2025 will be like 22 months they started rising and like 15 months above 4% almost so don’t get anxious you will get you crisis but much much worse since the dollar will not bee Seen safeheaven by markets anymore.

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      Unemployment is 4% already by the time the fed stop cuttin( they have not even STARTED) you will see 2 digits unemployment, cre speculators going broke, beg actually is a deflationary crisis and not weigmar 2.0, again best wishes.

    • @eljefe5858
      @eljefe5858 2 місяці тому

      Everything you said and don’t worry we on MX specially have lived like you said due NAFTA I agree with you, but as you can see the bank and big companies always have profits YES OR YES. Think about a “controlled depression” they are no going to cut prices sorry.

  • @reddysushil
    @reddysushil 2 місяці тому

    Cheaper money would help businesses, which inturn would help employment, but this process is slow….so we see a lag between when rates are reduced vs when we see unemployment go down
    Imagine yourself as an employer: you layoff bunch of people and learn how to manage without them (more efficient, better margins once market is back), unless business grows more than what it was before the recession hits you would not see employment numbers. Thats where time lag comes into picture.
    I may be totally wrong here, do let me know your thoughts.

  • @petergeddesrensen6567
    @petergeddesrensen6567 2 місяці тому +6

    Rate cuts will accelerate rate of indebtedness

  • @fedefedediego3266
    @fedefedediego3266 2 місяці тому

    If your cycle is correct,the unemployment grow and the fed need to cut rate but still that all economy going down....and the question is you think Stock Market and Bitcoin going down too? So...all red? Because i think here if red for economy can be green for the market and btc.

  • @helenkessler6012
    @helenkessler6012 2 місяці тому +20

    Yall heard Trump tell Powell he can stay IF he behaves. No cutting b4 nov.

    • @donotreportmebro
      @donotreportmebro 2 місяці тому +2

      It takes a year for any rate cuts to make impact

    • @F_C...
      @F_C... 2 місяці тому +3

      The market is already climbing from speculation that Trump is going to win. If Powell cuts now it won't make a difference between now and November, it'll just cause the market to surge more which trump will claim is due to his own election likeliness. Powell might decide not to cut precisely because of market speculation of a trump victory. But overall I think he will try to ignore the political noise and act based on employment data.

    • @sturmherooflance
      @sturmherooflance 2 місяці тому +1

      ​@@F_C... Is this because of his proposal to cut corporate tax another 10 percent?

    • @Mr_Hundredaire
      @Mr_Hundredaire 2 місяці тому

      Then 100bps per meeting afterwards

    • @jcgoogle1808
      @jcgoogle1808 2 місяці тому

      @@F_C...
      In the meantime senileolejoe is in a fog wondering why all the demcorats are telling him he should get out when he's done such a good job and has such a high approval rating,.. or so Jill and the interns that make up his staff tell him.
      "Joe you answered all of the questions (CNN gave you ahead of time) and you knew all of the facts."
      "Who's a good boy?"

  • @smileyspoon1
    @smileyspoon1 2 місяці тому

    Yeah. Cutting rates does stimulate the economy but it's a freaking blunt instrument. It's slow to take effect and always has unforseen consequences. It's not that it does not do anything but it's not precise and it's not enough. Also you are asking the fed to basically to predict the market and that's impossible to begin with. 😅

  • @boudivv
    @boudivv 2 місяці тому

    Central banks interest rates only influence government spending. Or better over spending.

  • @geraldsmith7240
    @geraldsmith7240 2 місяці тому +1

    Recessions Are Like Sleep.
    We Can’t Work Without Sleeping. We’d Be Blathering Idiots, In Less Than A Week.
    The Same Way The Markets Can’t Rally Forever.
    We Sleep, Then We Wake. Balance. Same With The Market.
    Sorry To Say, The Markets Need Sleep, Recessions.

  • @daniell.dingeldein9717
    @daniell.dingeldein9717 2 місяці тому +2

    rates are the boot on our necks

  • @Thenineoh
    @Thenineoh 2 місяці тому

    Cutting rates might not work to help unemployment, but I can't wait till rates are slashed. If my mortgage goes down from 6.75% to 3% or less, I'll pay a lot less of a mortgage payment every month lol.

    • @donklee3514
      @donklee3514 2 місяці тому

      I want rates to go up. Calculating the solvency of social security at 4.24% vs 15.82% produces two different outcomes. Maybe we could even get a higher cost of living increases?? And the standard of living.

  • @rujotheone
    @rujotheone 2 місяці тому

    What of the lag theory?

  • @geofractal
    @geofractal 2 місяці тому +1

    If thenliars would quit lying, we could start to trust the effers. Trust goes a long way but that ideas is lost on that lot.

  • @tyramiajones7964
    @tyramiajones7964 2 місяці тому

    The US Dollar Standard is going to be one of the greatest jokes in economic history lol
    One of the shortest lived empires ever hahaha 🤣😂🤣😂
    We must demand a gold and silver economy when the inexorable excrement hits the (first time in history) global fan
    And if they resist, we must homogenise and force their resignation as they will have proven themselves to be in a redundant position lol
    💖💖💖💖💖😊💖💖💖💖💖

  • @helenkessler6012
    @helenkessler6012 2 місяці тому +1

    My comment hasnt shown up? What?

  • @darklighter131
    @darklighter131 2 місяці тому

    I find it interesting that he has no background in economics nor an degree in the field. Also There is no advisory waring as well. This cold end baddly for him if someone took him to court.

  • @Hotshot24-7
    @Hotshot24-7 2 місяці тому +2

    When can I buy my house 😢

  • @hymansahak181
    @hymansahak181 2 місяці тому

    The Fed is always late - Donald J Trump

  • @martinhogrefe
    @martinhogrefe 2 місяці тому +2

    Rates cuts do nothing

  • @johnryskamp2943
    @johnryskamp2943 2 місяці тому +4

    Don't give up on countering, "It would have been worse." Tell them to prove it. They can't. There are NO facts in support. Reader, do you have any facts?

    • @SuperTheLycan
      @SuperTheLycan 2 місяці тому +2

      Its like, you see a turn, but keep accelerating until very late and then start braking. So you have a small crash.
      Then what you say here: braking does not work, there is no evidence. Do not trust them when they say that without braking it would be even worse.
      Got it?

  • @carefulconsumer8682
    @carefulconsumer8682 2 місяці тому +1

    Excellent. Maybe a jobs creation act like they did in 1933 (Civil Works Administration) is a better idea then cutting rates?

    • @DonalldArmentor
      @DonalldArmentor 2 місяці тому

      More Socialism, that's what they have been giving us while breaking the Constitution to allow the government illegal powers, a central bank to borrow and spend in the name of taxpayers, takes money spending to graft over. The feds true purpose is to extract wealth from the working class and transfer it to the wealthy.

    • @waltertodd4479
      @waltertodd4479 2 місяці тому +1

      Bigger government (socialism)

    • @DonalldArmentor
      @DonalldArmentor 2 місяці тому

      @@carefulconsumer8682 where my comment? I get the response notice but MY comment was deleted

  • @shakeyspizza01
    @shakeyspizza01 2 місяці тому +1

    Panic 1913.0 on the way

  • @cucuserpent4
    @cucuserpent4 2 місяці тому +2

    Hopening.

  • @waltertodd4479
    @waltertodd4479 2 місяці тому

    Hahahahaha dont bet on stupidstition!

  • @togoni
    @togoni 2 місяці тому +6

    Jeff has just another doomsday. 🤑🤪🤦🏻‍♂️

  • @Katarzyna-x4j
    @Katarzyna-x4j 2 місяці тому +8

    This is my favorite channel. Despite the dip in crypto. I still thank you for the level headed financial advice I started crypto investment with $7,500 and since following you for few weeks now, l've got 25k In my portfolio. Thank you so much mrs Elizabeth Slone

    • @Emilyegan-j9k
      @Emilyegan-j9k 2 місяці тому

      Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

    • @SorezPatrick
      @SorezPatrick 2 місяці тому

      The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.

    • @SgtAlexis-m6h
      @SgtAlexis-m6h 2 місяці тому

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @dr-jamesthomas4716
      @dr-jamesthomas4716 2 місяці тому

      I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

    • @Amanda-p2n
      @Amanda-p2n 2 місяці тому

      Isn't that the same Mrs Elizabeth Slone that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well

  • @NA-su3jk
    @NA-su3jk 2 місяці тому

    Yet again... rehash but nothing new

  • @rickyspeakman4445
    @rickyspeakman4445 2 місяці тому

    I wished they would have cut this month! Why wait? That way the depression would start by September

  • @will.davlin
    @will.davlin 2 місяці тому +3

    wool socks to bed could improve your sleep quality a lot ⬜🟥

    • @Cos_Why_Not
      @Cos_Why_Not 2 місяці тому

      Seems like superstition to me!

    • @Cos_Why_Not
      @Cos_Why_Not 2 місяці тому

      Seems like superstition to me!