How Ukrainian F-16s could unravel Russia - Western jets, strategy & the air war | Defence in Depth
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
- Since the start of the full-scale invasion last year, neither side has been able to dominate the sky, which says as much about the weakness of the Russian air force as it does about the tenacity of Ukraine’s.
Although that is unlikely to change any time soon, Kyiv would have been delighted last weekend when, after a whirlwind tour of European capitals, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, secured promises of dozens of modern fighter jets for his air force.
#ukrainewar #ukraine #russia #jets
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Dominic Nicholls will be away from Defence in Depth next week, however keen-eared listeners to Ukraine: The Latest, The Telegraph's podcast, may just recognise the presenter stepping in to fill his shoes. Think you know who they could be? Let us know in a comment down below, along with your own suggestion for a future topic for us to cover.
I hope it's not Mr Bean again. He's funny like Dom but his analysis was not as strong.
Just hope it's not BoJo.
The ghost of Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Perun
I reckon Hamish D. B. Gordon would do magnificently. I would like to hear Gordon's take on the scope of the dilemmas Uk creates for Ru commanders. Long range aerial drones: Closing airspace, closing airports. Quad copters: Forcing Ru to move a TU-22M bomb group, obliging Ru to fly their attack missions from the Arctic circle. Marine drones: Forcing Ru to Evacuate capital ships from Sevastopol to Novorossisk. Blasting logistics and transport. Forcing Ru assets nearly everywhere to wonder if they might be next. Nibble, nibble, nibble. I hear about Uk slow progress. My opinion? Not so much. They're learning how to mess up the Ru OODA loop in multiple ways, some of them innovative; some of them hard for Ru to counter. Visualize having to post sentries to guard the beach on Crimea. Where exactly does Ru get these sentries? Uk does pretty well creating dilemmas. Interested to know what Gordon ... or another host ... thinks about that.
Many thanks, Dom, I really appreciate your insightful comments and always appreciate your humour as well!
He is so very good.
It is so interesting to watch how the US first organized a coup d'état in Ukraine. Then for 8 years they secretly supported the civil war in the Donbass. Not showing all those thousands of deaths that led to the war with Russia. And now they are openly leading the poor Ukrainians and sponsoring the war.
Best joke - is f16 will help. Russia is winning
Great supplement to Ukraine the Latest. Must admit Dom is my fav on the show.
A great breakdown of modern combined arms warfare! Aircraft, are crucial to forces on the ground!
It is so interesting to watch how the US first organized a coup d'état in Ukraine. Then for 8 years they secretly supported the civil war in the Donbass. Not showing all those thousands of deaths that led to the war with Russia. And now they are openly leading the poor Ukrainians and sponsoring the war.
What about attack helicopters! The Western commentators criticizing Ukraines slow progress, forget that ANY Western militaries combined arms operations would rely very heavily on Air Superiority/Support and attack helicopters. Ukraine is doing magnificent job with the limited arms and extremely limited air support with 1970’s Soviet aircraft.
Ukraine are usjng their Hinds & armed Hips. The issue as Russia has discovered is the huge numbers of Manpads/Sams.
The US has hundreds of old Cobras & indeed 1st gen Apaches in storage. The issue again is restoration, spare parts & finally training
Ukraine should be given scythes,forks,and axes .With these tools they killeg over 200.000 Poles!
Another fascinating and brilliant episode
Defence in Depth videos by Dominic are great, precise and very informative
Most have now heard that Denmark and Netherlands will supply F-16´s and training of pilots/staff. TODAY Norway also promised to donate some F-16´s, number yet unspecified but proably a smaller number since they sold a large part of theirs to Romania but more are more and it are a great addition. (Edit) Greece also announced they would participate in training at least one batch of pilots (Edit end) FURTHERMORE Pentagon an hour ago announced they will join in on the training part with English lessons in a few weeks and actual pilottraining around a month later. Hopefully others will be able to spare more F-16 here and there and we will pass the 100 mark or beyond. First batch of planes and staff from at least Denmark are scheduled to arrive around new year. Ukrainan advantage really are about F-16´s are fast mobile advanced weapon platforms.
Norway had 57 planes for sale and sold 32 to Romania, so that is 25 planes possibly.
Unless Romania go for new planes all things considered.
We have not heard from Belgium yet.
@@Jakob_DK True but just like Denmark I do not think they have gotten all their F-35´s yet so maybe will be in batches. Lets hope Belgium and others chips in as well. Seems the balloon now finally have popped on this.
UK has proposed that Dutch and Danish instructors do their teaching in the UK so the pilots can combine language studies with flying training. Alternatively we could send language instructors to Netherlands and Denmark.
Like with Leopards? ;)
@@piotrd.4850 yes link the leopards in Tusla. Like the 100+ leopards om their way.
Nice work Dom 👍 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Awesome content again!
Australia is also considering sending the 41 F-18's it has in mothballs to Ukraine. The F-18 is somewhere in between the Gripen and F-16 in its ability to operate from unimproved runways. The F-16 can operate from unimproved runways but it has several issues including landing gear that make it far from ideal in that situation. The Gripen is the perfect fighter for Ukraine in their situation but at most Sweden could give up 6-12 aircraft, the rest would have to built and thus be a year away while the F-16's should start to arrive by December or January with the pilots currently being trained finishing up training in November and December. Sweden and Ukraine just signed a deal for the CV-90 IFV (infantry fighting vehicle) to be built under license in Ukraine, this is arguably the worlds best IFV, Ukraine has been using several international models of IFV and chose the CV-90 over the others which says a lot about its capability in combat. Perhaps Ukraine could sign a contract as well with Sweden to build the Gripen under license in Ukraine or Poland which could drastically speed up production of the Gripen for Ukraine, Sweden has offered such a license to other countries like India for the Gripen. Rheinmattel of Germany has also discussed building a tank plant in Ukraine that would potentially be underground to keep it safe from Russian attacks.
As an Aussie I think this would be great. I have no idea how little overlap between the F16 and F18 maintenance and logistics but the Ukrainian airforce tooth to tail ratio looks set to grow a very big tail.
Hope they are able to keep that underground tank factory construction secret, maybe put the planning permission in as a nightclub!
As both an Australian and American, I do not support the escalation of war between two nuclear powers. Nor do I support funding American nuclear powered attack submarines (useless for the defense of costal Australia) with Australian tax money. This is not in the interests of the Australian or American people, and is profoundly reckless. Ukranian refugees to Australia are given very very little assistance - how about concentrating on that.
Yep, those retired f18 hornets are available to Ukraine from Australia... only if the US says so!! we don't have a choice in the matter.
@@MrZakatista I mean it's too late now, Australians are already in the training pipeline in the naval nuclear program as it is and by the 2030s the Australian navy will have nuclear subs of its own. just the ever forward march of time
This Brit knows his subject matter and is a veteran i wish him all my best.
I see the F-16’s as payback for Malaysian flight shot down.
Absolutely fascinating! No one tells it quite like Dominic Nichols, and always with such enthusiasm, passion and a pop of humour at just the right moments. Ukraine: The Latest is a brilliant podcast too.
It is so interesting to watch how the US first organized a coup d'état in Ukraine. Then for 8 years they secretly supported the civil war in the Donbass. Not showing all those thousands of deaths that led to the war with Russia. And now they are openly leading the poor Ukrainians and sponsoring the war.
It's a tragi-comedy
As a big fan of Boyd, thanks for highlighting his fantastic talents.
The JAS Gripen would be an excellent airframe for the future Ukrainian Air Force. But there aren't many of them around, and it would take years to build the factories to supply them at scale. Short term, the F16 is more reasonable due to its massive availability.
The swedish social democrats just held a press conference about sending our jets, they pointed out that we are upgrading our fleet anyway and will have planes to hand over.
And we could send a few more since we already ordered new ones.
They do want us to be in nato before tho, cause it would mean that we would have fewer planes for a cpl of years.
They are the first party to state it but it seems like theres parties on both sides of the isles that are for it.
To me it seems like its just a matter of time
Nearly perfect timing as well since countries have started to transition to the F-35.
Украина погибнет быстрее чем они получат истребители
Who will pay for any of those?
@@fingerprint8479the western taxpayers, to be absolutely demolished in the skies over Ukraine.
Love your videos. Keep them coming.
Yep F-16s are going to require some logistics. They can carry 15200 pounds of weapons in addition to their standard defensive weapons load . And that is one plane,one flight. The equivalent of say 152 155 shells for example.
Always informative with a subtle sense of humour occasionally thrown in. 😊Not to be missed!
Respected and known by millions!
Brilliant. Been a long term fan of Boyd's efforts at Boeing and in the principles of the OODA loop
Thanks for the video Dom. Its always great content.
Honestly Dominics takes alone are worth the sub
I look forward to these each week. Well done. As always.
Love your updates - great work.
19 F16 from Denmark,42 from Holland, begunstiget to look like something. 🇩🇰🇩🇰👍🏻
As a German I want to thank our neighbours for their help, and wished Scholz wouldnt delay the Taurus rockets any longer
An interesting and informative video Dominic coupled with your insightful comments and your humour. 👍
Air support, has always been a game changer! 🤞
Another fascinating and brilliant episode. Nice work Dom Slava Ukraini .
nonsense
I think a very basic reason for providing Western planes (and other equipment) is that allies in Eastern Europe have already provided a lot of their old Soviet stuff. Sooner or later, it just runs out. It makes sense for Ukraine to gradually transition to NATO artillery just for logistic reasons. It's the same for aircraft. By the end of the war, Ukraine will have a NATO equipped army. I think in many cases the equipment will be qualitatively better but, perhaps at least as important, it will be compatible with its allies' armies.
It's actually because the plan is to get Ukraine, its military, all its soldiers and its culture destroyed and gradually replaced by NATO, so it can be bought cheap and rebuilt in Europe's image and be NATO in every way but a seat at the table. Theres a word for that...
The question is, will it get here fast enough to save a lot of lives? The jets can also be used to shoot down missiles which will also save lives
@@TKUA11
No. They cant. Thats cartoon fantasy.
@@springbloom5940that cartoon fantasy happened in 2019. Cope harder
@@displaychicken
🤦🏽♀️
I worked on the stand for Saab at the Farnborough Air show when Gripen launched. Lovely aircraft and can’t wait to see them helping liberate Ukraine if Russia doesn’t pack up and head home before they enter theatre.
I hope people can learn to pronounce the name properly though. It's not pronounced Grippen, like he does here, but more like Greepen.
@@Leadfoot_P71 Just be glad they don't say Griffon 🙂
It’s more about the weapons systems and pods (SEAD) the F-16’s carry.
Exactly. The MiG-29 and Su-27 are comparable to or better than the contemporary F-16 and F-15 in terms of their airframe capabilities. It’s the avionics that give Western aircraft an edge.
Excellent content as always
I would think that the F16 could be really effective at SEAD/Wild Weasal missions with the HARMs we have in Ukraine. If the Russian AAD assets along the front could be cracked and burned down...that could allow for more CAS and tactical strikes along the Front and crack open the defense line and dominate the battlespace...imagine what could have been achieved if we hadn't dallied and given 4th Gen fighters to Ukraine sooner. A lot of lives would have been saved.
Ukraine should be given scythes,forks,and axes .With these tools they killeg over 200.000 Poles!
He is truly a comedian. Destroyed people's lives
By listening to his people and not surrendering to a genocidal fascist dictator?
This is so well done
There are nothing to smile about people continue to suffer because of this man
Great stuff!
The highlight of my week! Thanks so much!!
Wasnt the leopard meant to do the same thing? And it failed.
Bloody love these episodes
Good piece.
Wonderfully presented. 5 STARS.
Excellent vid!
Very well-explained and glad to see journalists getting it very right!
Boyd had nothing to do with the F16.
He had some input on the F15, but only in that he wanted to strip out everything that made the F15 so crazy effective.
The dogfight died in 1980
Good analysis on how exactly Western Jets can influence/ contribute to the outcome of the Russia- Ukraine conflict.
Dom is great talent one who is in complete command of military technical detail as well as a n excellent communicator, he and the other people on the Telegraph present an excellent discussion on the war in Ukraine. Superb.
👍🏽 Good job mate
When will everyone understand its not the platform (F16) it the payload it can carry and deliver, e.g. missiles that take out SU fighter at range
The "blast" was impeccably timed 8:07
Slava Ukraini!
Byraktar--javelin--himars--shadow storm--leapord--cluster munitions--F16. Another miracle weapon.And the circus goes on.
The immediate gains are a bit minor:
1- parts. Pretty hard to get old mig parts for maintenance
2- integration with western weapons. Won't have to MacGyver solutions
3- marginal improvement in tech
That was a very interesting and impressive analysis.
Love this
Good explanation Dom.
Somehow a cup of tea is like a tonic to English people 🙏
Good job on this one John Boyd was a maverick!!!!
So many game changers already provided to Ukraine and yet NATO still talking about F-16 as game changer.
Most info available anywhere!
Excellent discussion of the OODA Loop with examples of how to use it in everyday life.
These jets should have been supplied immediately. It would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives and the destruction of such a historic nation.
Everything is happening at the right pace. The Patriot systems needed to be installed and tested first or else Russia could have just blown the jets up on the ground with long range missiles. Ukraine was always going to get pulverized, Russia has more artillery shells than people and their air defense is too strong for even the USAF to penetrate reliably. The F-16s can turn the tide in the offensive though.
It takes training, logistics, airfields, support facilities and maintenance. Not an “immediate” thing - even with pilots trained in Soviet era planes.
Yep, blame the Biden Administration, they blocked this for over a year, they still will not even give Ukraine the 21 old Mig-29's the US oddly owns to Ukraine nor a single helicopter despite thousands in mothballs not being used. The US has hundreds of F-16's and F-18's also in mothballs and 3450 Abrams tanks in mothballs yet could only spare 31 of them which STILL have not arrived.
I completely agree.
Agreed. They were asked for last year and training could have begun last summer. Losing time means losing lives
grippers containerized maintenance set is a big step up.
Would be interesting to know what the plan is in terms of pilot training, support training and maintenance for these non ukrainian aircraft. It's all well and good supplying the jets but the training takes a crazy long time to roll out, especially when dealing with specialised technical terms in a different language.
I believe pilots started training months ago. For the average American, it's 1.5 years to be able to fly a real mission, but they are streamlining the process for Ukrainians to 6 months. The real bottle neck is training the maintenance crews for obvious reasons: these war machine are endlessly complicated, and their engineers are starting from scratch. In terms of budget, US already budgeted money for training programs a year ago, August 2022.
@@headoverheels88So 6 months for them to get airborne, should be able to maintain and service them a few years later then, all going well.
It’s not as if Ukraine doesn’t have trained pilots or has been at war since 2014. Sure, the system needs to be tuned but I think these decisions are being slow walked for political reasons. They could have started training last year and would have been helping in the offensive
@@headoverheels88 Poland has had F-16s for a long time and has offered to provide maintenance training *and* support.
@@TKUA11 There is reason to believe that many of the actions of the USA government are motivated by commercial considerations.
Really like this guy. Last of the few remaining intelligent synopsis
Boyd - what a fascinating individual
Himars were the game changers, Leopards and Bradley's were the game changers.............
Himars largely stopped the Russian offensive in its tracks last year.
Nato has no chance against Russia in this proxy war
Sad Ukraine lost those 3 pilots
oh so finally. Only that was the missing part in this whole conflict
F-in A damn right! good vid!
Good
Suggested topic: Is it possible for the navies of Nato to escort and defend cargo grain ships in the Black Sea? Are they allowed through the Bosphorus at all? I haven't seen any mention of this at all through the whole war. And I do like the white dog at the end of your videos.
no. they cannot get into the black sea when a war is going on.. turkey has the bosphorus closed to military traffic
They could easily sink Russia's entire black sea fleet as already proved by the Ukraine which has caused the black sea fleet that isn't on the bottom of the black sea already to scatter and hide.
cant wait for this gamechanger!
I love this podcast! Incredibly informative, and well presented. Being a Canadian, living in Toronto, its hard for me to "Buy a Paper" but keep up the good work!
It is so interesting to watch how the US first organized a coup d'état in Ukraine. Then for 8 years they secretly supported the civil war in the Donbass. Not showing all those thousands of deaths that led to the war with Russia. And now they are openly leading the poor Ukrainians and sponsoring the war.
Every time Ukraine gets a new weapon it's called a "game changer", and yet here we are with the Russians holding out against all these game-changing new weapons.
Why couldn’t they have started training last year? It’s not like we didn’t know they would need these
Because Biden and his generals are playing their own game, whatever that is, and because the two largest Western nations (France and Germany) are still stupid enough to think that Putin can be tamed by buying his oil and gas.
Advent in technology makes portable anti aircraft weapons more lethal. Plus guided missiles fired simultaneously with the manpads makes any aircraft go to it's doom!
After a thorough explanation of the capabilities and limitations of jets like the F-16, Mr Nicholls brings it all together with a quick explanation of combined (coordinated) attack, using a variety of air and ground resources. Arguments now float about the A-10, with discussions seemingly dismissing the jet out of hand because of vulnerabilities from surface-to-air missiles. Well, of course an A-10 Warthog would be vulnerable to attack if it were to just fly willy-nilly into the range of an enemy's weapon systems. But I think that's not how they would be used. With a similar level of analysis, please give your opinions of how this particular aircraft might fit into the mix. It could be that inventory of the weapon is simply too old and poorly maintained but otherwise, could be a good fit for a combined attack in the near future.
Hopefully they use CAP to take out the KiA 52's that will help loads.
Funny and interesting. Thanks
Let's hope they allow air dominance and the ravaging of their artillery.
I remember the same lie about HIMARS , M777 and Leopard. All those are scraps now
Yet since those arrived, Russia has been forced to retreat on most fronts, and still hasn’t even hit a single Himars. Meanwhile, Ukraine has destroyed more than 11,000 pieces of Russian military equipment and likely killed or wounded a quarter of a million Russian soldiers, from an army which numbered perhaps half a million two years ago. Russia’s hanging on grimly, but this war has been a disaster for Russian power.
Wondering how he is going to spin the headlines...."Ukrainian F16 fight back immediately dedtroyed".... should be interesting😁
The F16 is probably the highest value fighter in terms of capability and cost. But the Gripen, I think, is the better fighter for Ukraine. Good news.
Target practice for the S-400
Thanks again. Love your work.
Dom always does a good job.AFU is going to at a terrible disadvantage not being able to use US jets to attack Russian air bases. Where to hide F 16's?
Another game changer
could hovercraft provide passage over minefields for infantry squads?
I’ve been wondering about this for months. They’d seem the obvious choice for assaulting across floodwaters and minefields, though I don’t know whether the ground pressure of a hovercraft would be enough to trigger at least AP mines.
Anything new will offer Ukraine new tactics, and maybe even new strategies...
Not when theres no army left to protect they wont...
@@operator9858 look everyone. Another Cope Troll. Please don't laugh. They are sensitive little (buttsore) critters.
@@operator9858 who's gonna wipe out their army - a zerg rush of mobiks?
i really like this guy (the editor) he's got the military background to support his reports and comments on how military kit should be used. he is the only one that makes sense!
I think almost everyone has lost faith that these will actually be delivered....Way too late.....
Too many Ukrainians have been killed....
Lets hope they actually get delivered sooner than later....lets hope the US does not hold up the delivery anymore than they already have..
Thanks Dom another great one.
it will get destroyed By Russia
This war is far from over. The jets are just the next step. Wait until Ukraine has ballistic missile capability and nukes. ;-)
Emphasis on could*
It's all about tactics and employing them properly. We saw that the tanks and APCs, while more survivable, have only had a marginal impact at least as far as we can find (though it does seem that the Bradley is proving very useful) and the HIMARS is undeniably a game changer in the artillery war.
What would the Ukrainians be wanting next after they get the F-16s??
Their goal has always been NATO ground troops. In an attritional war, the one thing that the west cannot give Ukraine is more Ukrainians.
@@williammorris584And the difference?
Next week they'll ask for nuclear weapons
Slav Ukraine 🇺🇦
The Right Honorable Ben Wallace
Nice coverage period but on a deeper level it is not quite that simple. Norway according to someone in the comments is also planning on giving them F-16's but the airspace though is another question as they don't have a lot of airspace to maneuver in which complicates it (especially if Belarus has military jets?)
America is sending more weapons of war to Ukraine. 100 million worth....