The Rate Cutting Cycle Has Begun - The Loonie Hour Episode 139
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- Bank of Canada slashes interest rates, suggests more to come. The ECB also cuts rates, is the Fed next? Economic data is now softening in the US. Why this probably won't save the Canadian housing market. Private debt fund in Canada halts redemptions in a sign of things to come. Foreign interference corruption in Ottawa.
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@ Keith. It's not alleged. It's a statement of fact in the report that those MPs worked for a foreign state.
A couple things. First: if the Currency devalues wouldn’t that make things more expensive leading to more inflation and I’m currently watching from Tunisia 🇹🇳
hello Tunisia 🤝
Yes is the answer
Keith knows the canary in the Caribbean hedge flow mind...a wise man leads others to the truth instead of bluntly saying it......this is hard to do !!....You have my salute, Sir !!
$20.00 Big Macs coming to a tent city near you!
lol
Too expensive for a tent city 😅
That's my bet..... inflation will re-accelerate very simply on supply side constraints/higer costs even as GDP contracts under higher Debt servicing/payments...... the coming stagflation could be a real piss-cutter for the BoC !
Happy Friday boys!
Guys its better then going up rate wise
Haven’t missed an episode since day 1
From Sao Jorge, Azores - Portugal 🇵🇹
Pretty sure WestJet gives celebrations out as a snack on the plane......
Without guests, the channel is reduced to the "babbling turds"
I prefer just listening to the babbling turds
Jughead Singh is waiting for a seat while trudeau
rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.
While freeland charts a course directly into the iceberg.
Awesome way to start the day!
Boesers clots we speak of not.....the truth will rock pro sports soon
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Annie Brooks has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm a long term investor, I withdrew my profits of over £61,000 during the covid-19 pandemic.
This sounds so good and I would like to be a party to it, is there any way I can speak with her?
Her good reputation already speaks for her .I’m also one of the beneficiary of Annie Brooks. So happy I gave it a trial after being skeptic of the process.
Finally the rate cuts are here my mortgage is down $23 a month golden arches here I come
Hang tough bro more Tiff helicopter rate cuts and helicopter immigrants are on the way. I recommend buying the condo dip in Toronto moon soon.
@@segasys1339everyone will be lining up to buy 400 square foot shoebox for 800k or move to the US buy a nice family home for half the price
@@segasys1339what if this does not happen your just left riding the dip
@@Matt.k864 Canadian real estate is too big to fail helicopters are airborne moon soon
you know, a simple Medium Fries for my kid now costs $4.19 +hst in Barrie anyway
The CAD is getting hosed on Friday. Looks like the interest rate divergence could get wider
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 what Keith? I don't follow!
Richs comment at min 29:30 about the banana republic shit is spot on. These politicians are gross, weak, and corrupt.
CSIS and the RCMP are just as
@@donm2067 All Mafia's have henchmen.
I really love how disillusioned Rich is with the system. That's very rare in leftists. Modern leftists tend to support the system without question.
Its official! The Great Canadian peso is coming to a city near you folks.
Not really. There is a limit.
@@ethimself5064
Highly unlikely any 'floor' well into the low .60 cent range(obvious inflation resurgence) isn't achievable under even a 100 Bps BoC divergence from US Fed rate policy concurrent to any significant Mortgage Loan Loss attenuations emergent into declining consumer spending, as GDI is reallocated to higher Debt servicing ?.... remember, significant percentages of Canada's consumer spending reliant already stagnant 10+ years barely ~$2 Trillion GDP is already DEBT expansion reliant..... and even 100 Bps lower does little into 4 Million Mortgage renewals(1 Million NEGAMS) here through Q4/2026 ALL renewing at higher rates/payments than initiation with prior inflation already entrenched.
I for one believe Real Estate 'sentiment' has now rolled over..... capitulation phase unfolding which will prove problematic into completely inadequate Big Bank Loan Loss provisioning.
@@ethimself5064Have fun saving a worthless currency.
@@sherdonforbes3480 It's been int range of about $0.72 to about $0.80 on the US $ for a very long time. Plus the US dollar is overvalued these days and fully expected to come down next year. Virtually every other currency in the planet is down to the US dollar also. My friends amd son regularly receive a net return of between 7% and 15%, so who cares.
Canada runs a trade surplus with the US, thus, any FX pressure by interest rate divergence is offset by a widening surplus, although not entirely.
This means we are less likely to have a vicious cycle of currency devaluation -> lower reserves -> further devaluation.
This is not a permanent phenomena though, a combination of oil glut and interest rate divergence is enough to upset this balance and put the loonie at risk. However, I think the BOC is aware of this and would unlikely continue to diverge should oil prices crash.
29:07 Tiff just meant don’t worry about July let’s just be happy about June for a sec. Basically - F off about next month since he always gets asked about future cuts non stop. Pretty understandable I thought
1:06:51 Tons of Oilers fans in Calgary. They move here because there’s no jobs in Deadmonton 😂
At least they have water
😂😂 u must be unemployable
Sorry Rich! You better eat that Twinkie. Ps. I'm pretty frustrated that the Bank of Canada chose the route of morale hazard bailout over common sense for savers.
The coming CAD debasement is great for our oil producers. Nice little margin expansion for those guys.
@@SzymonStasI think all resources will benefit. Eventually we will have dig like no tomorrow to pay for our debt. Resource development will be the only way.
@@SzymonStas time to load up on Suncor, Imperial, Cenovus, etc??
Montpellier is a very nice town. I have seen a lot of France it stands out. If you get a chance to visit the Pyrenees you should take it.
Canadian living in Switzerland here and a regular viewer. You guys help me keep the finger on the pulse of Canadian/World finance.
Jagmeet Singh has build entire political capital by campaigning aganist India bcus India denied his visa. Trudeau has to include India in every inquiry to appease Jagmeet.
Pops listens to a lot of threads and after Justin won last election he told me election interference from China, I told him he’s nuts. I may have been wrong. 😳😳😳
As a "conspiracy theorist", I will say we are generally ahead of the curve.
No the queen is not a lizard, no the world isn't flat, but yes the Chinese/Indians are running Canada.
You can’t compare data directly from time periods that use different matrixes to compile the numbers 🤷🏻♂️ all part of the Keynesian Con 😉 If you’re using the matrix from the 90’s today’s inflation number is substantially higher than how calculations are made today 🤷🏻♂️ compare apples to apples, not apples to oranges 🤦♂️
They won't even use John Williams from Shadow stats, they use another guy.
It's like comparing Canada dry to 7Up, yeah they're kinda similar, but only one of them is delicious ginger ale.
Who hoo my mortgage dropped 30.00😂down form the 600.00 it went up😂 I’m going to use the savings for the taxes on netflix😂thanks Justin
Chrystia Freeland cut that out of her own tight home budget man!
Or you could splurge and get two BigMacs!
We love French Canadians in France! Fun people to be around!
Hey! Can you guys come to Victoria next time? There are plenty of boomers here to laugh at Keith's old-timey jokes and Rich can tour our extensive road network with his fancy-ass bike.
As a fellow Victoria resident, I support this
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 Beauty! I'll let Pamela Anderson and Nelly Furtado know ;)
Another vote for Victoria!
Same here! Join us on the island!
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 Yes!!! You are the turd that we want to see the most out of the 3 lol.
Nice Canadian show! I like it. J is not pronounced in Spanish like a j but rather an h.. so junta is pronounced 'hunta'.
Jajajaja
Jalisco
We're just levered to the gills huh? Oh thank you for the bone, BOC.
yeah... wow. 25 bases points... not like that means anything really. But when drowning in debt... every little bit helps. Yikes
Hyperinflation for years to come.
The timing is perfectly in line with the beginning of the seasonal Canadian harvest season. Inflation will not be noticed in the fresh fruit and vegtable section untill the fall.
By then we will have had another 25bsp cut and we will be back to importing most products and the poo will hit the fan by christmas.
Favorite game of politicians?
Answer:
kick the can.
Are we really believing Tiff this time that interest rates are not going to covid lows, Rich? Tiff is doing his job if we start believing what he says. They will flip on a dime. keep up the great work boys!
Rug pull king!
not holding CAD anymore lol. Everything is invested and the rest is in USD.
It would be incredible if you could bring on Nicholas Eberstadt to discuss unemployment and labour data (primarily from the US but also probably relevant for Canada)
I wish we would stop laughing about these major issues. It's treason. Canadians need to take it seriously.
haha now u can grab 2 happy meals ... Wow big deal
makes no fukin diference
Would have loved to meet you guys, in Calgary on the 12th but Edmonton on the 13th. Go Oilers!
I want a future video where you clearly eat Twinkie’s. Give the people what they want?
Rich got it wrong and Boomer Icecap got it right. Same old, same old.
I love the content you guys discuss and welcome your perspective, but again as I've commented before I think its really critical that you display your sources or provide screenshots or at a minimum includes links in the show notes. This is particularly valuable if you're commentating on the current state of the economy and country. It adds credibility and also would allow your followers and listeners to do their own validation and investigation. Thanks! Really appreciate the work you do put in to the show!
Keith looks 15 years younger with his glasses off
Go Oilers Go!
Bond yields are rising today, back to the same level it was before the rate cut. Sellers are jumping in from the sidelines, active listings are shooting up. Sellers are not gonna get what they want.
When are you coming to Toronto?
Does anyone have a link to the 2 page gag order Rich reference's?
Probably made up. After all, he didn't even know what wittingly meant and can't figure out how to buy a twinkie
Got my ticket. See you next week!
As a saver, I’m personally disgusted. Levered to the gills and need cuts to survive? Maybe delever … absolute clown world.
Go Panthers Go!
First comment!
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 🤣🤣🤣 196th
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 Kool eh
These Twinkies must be eaten on air!
Ridiculous that they can't even figure out how to get and eat twinkies
London ON meetup ever??????????
No, but go buy Mark Mitchell a beer
Rich lost totalt weong
How you guys got the interest rate cut wrong, excluding Steve. Is this chanell just for jokes. If you missed the most obvious one, how can we count on anything else you say. It's still fun to listen to you guys but come on
Dude it's a crap shoot, nothing in life is guaranteed, especially from a banker.
Tbh, Steve need to reshuffle and bring new Hosts to the show. These ones aren't good enough
Agreed
In the next 5 yrs the loonie will be @ $.50 cents
Canadazuelan Bolivar status confirmed ✅️
French here listening from Montreal every week, grew up in the south of France. Have fun Richard it's beautiful there !
My CAD😢
You guys better eat at least 2 twinkies! consider it the inflation charge on the bet.
I've always wondered what would happens when negative interest rates would happen. Best I could ever come up with is a total disaster
6:04 - 😱No cookies in the UK? This will not make the Cookie Monster happy at all.
TWINKIE!!!!!!
51:20 Rich:Low real interest rates promote “whacko” businesses😁; Keith
I doubt this
One and done
US treasury actions are week and China is selling US treasuries
Pushing up yield curve
I see the stag, and I see the flation!
Poor MacKlem..... him and Rogers put on a very brave face capitulating to the cut pressures(ENJOY the Moment !), and I especially enjoyed the part about Canada having it's own Currency and ability to 'set' it's own Monetary Policy ?????
Yeah OK there bub....
the elephant in the room for me is now Real Estate "sentiment' has clearly rolled over.... and unfortunately the BoC(and the Banks/OSFI etc) know what's coming .... a high potential into a dangerous capitulation phase as "nothing to lose by playing wait and see" entrenches in any potential Real Estate Buyer's mind ?
Sad statement when one of the best floors under any Canadian 'peso' valuation may indeed be the rest of the room(Globally) is also full of other blind people same as us ?
I LOVE IT.... gonna be some great opportunities coming up !
Keith with the SK shoutout in the first 5 mins. :D
Condo is really cheap in relation to townhouse and detached. U can buy a 2 or 3 bed room condo 1000 sq ft in the 600k to 700k range compare to a 1200 ft townhomes almost a mil.
Enjoy your vacation Rich!
Awesome show, keep it up.
Great Job!!! Thank You… :-)
Hundreds of thousands of ultra high paying tech jobs have already been lost in the USA.
From emerging startups to well-established firms, tech layoffs are an inevitable aspect of the corporate landscape. However, over the past few years, the tech industry has seen a surge in layoffs, affecting employees across various sectors and geographic locations. In 2023, over 260,000 tech professionals were displaced from their jobs, with an additional 80,000 layoffs recorded in 2024.
Zerohedge just reported all the job gains in the past couple years were almost exclusively through illegal immigrants
Statehood is their future
Rich sounds like he's managing inflation just fine...
Inflation has felt like 0% as a single guy myself. Don't know what to tell you.
Do an event in the Okanagan! Would love to see you all while doing a wine biking tour!
Any vineyards actually left?
@@steveshideler1333Yeah for sure.
@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 happy to help organize it. Could be a multi day tour! Rich could even bring his fancy bike!
Thank God, they’ve over tightened
I can't tell if this is sarcasm