Residential Property Declines - The Lessons of History (an update)
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
- Dr Philipp Hofflin was a late starter when it comes to investing. That’s because he dedicated years of his life to academic study, ultimately earning a PhD in magnetohydrodynamics. By his own admission this deep knowledge on a single topic offered very little practical application, which lead him to pursue a career in funds management.
Earlier this year Philipp published in-depth analysis on the economic implications of declining residential property prices in Australia. The research was well presented, topical and is one of the most widely read articles on our website. I recently sat down with Philipp to get an update on his views around falling property prices, learn more about his ‘value’ approach to investing and uncover a few of the opportunities and threats he sees for Australian investors.
Here is the link to the research on residential property prices: www.livewirema...
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Every day that passes makes me more confident that we are following Ireland's example. It's going to get worse before it gets worse.
Great information and interview. Any chance to get Martin North on for his insight as well?
Martin North runs a very active UA-cam channel with regular updates. Do you think he has anything additional to add that hasn't been said via his blog/videos?
@Rory The Red all good points Rory, I'll do some more digging into topics of interest with Martin and see where we go.
The downturn will continue. We are living on unsustainable debt.
Agreed - it's a downturn on a downhill path!
@@stchew49 an easy does it DOWN TURN so far!!
@@zarkoristov5585,
Yes, but the worst may happen suddenly and/or without warning and so catches many by surprise! Best wishes and take care.
One of the best livewire interviews. Thanks.
Property buyers are the lowest informed class of investor.
I'd argue that people who buy crypto altcoins are.
History has always had the average suburban home on the out skirts of city's as being always 4 or 5 times the average wage... and not this insane and crazy 12 or 14 times ... the market will only correct itself as it always has, over the next 24 to 36 months a guaranteed 40% to 60% falls from their 2017 peaks in and around Melbourne and Sydney and around 25% to 40% for the rest of the country ... 35% real estate price falls will simply wipe away our 4 major banks and most peoples superannuation policy's...
also, the only safe investment now is previous metals like gold or silver
Great summary. Aussies way over confident about property prices. Huge leverage in households.
Could we get both, a Sharp shock into recession AND a long slow grind?
Bro science tells me its a good time to buy. My head tells me 'get to tha chopper!'
I'd prefer to amputate my good leg than buy right now.
Many many year of Ponzi finance has gone into a *fake* speculative property bubble. This is the *true* market correcting itself. I wholeheartedly disagree with the gentlemen thinking corrections are a bad thing.
Disagree only that you cannot forecast the market, in many cases in established markets you can years in advance by looking at previous cycles. The UK's Fred Harrison for example correctly predicted a 2008 crash back in 1997, as well as the early 90's busts back in the mid 80's.
Japan's long drawn out decline following the bust is largely a result of very slow demographics (which is similar to China's current dilemma), as well as some liberalisation of zoning. Oz is far more likely to see the more typical shorter but deep recession 3-5 year decline, trouble for Oz is any recover is likely to be curtailed if/when the US leads the world economy into the next GFC (going on Harrison's model of previous cycles, around 2026), as it is not really plausible that China can create another credit/construction boom on the same level as it did post 08.
Very reasonable analysis and logic thinking.
The biggest problem with economist is that they think market condition will stay the same but you have to remember that the what if the rental fee is reduced and what if the interest rates goes up.. what if the real unemployment rate is 9%? in fact we are in 9% unemployment rates... what about the serviceability of average loan?.. tell him to buy a contact lenses... he needs to read the whole thing again...
Interested only loan, negative Gear bring Oz to long term slow dead.
apologies, someone pranked me while we were watching
happens to me all the time!
Lolol
Great
Take off your reading glasses...
I hope for your sake this comment was an accident
@@Livewiremarkets it always is mate