Strategist Richard Bernstein on Successful Investment Themes of The Past and His Favorite One Now
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- Опубліковано 15 вер 2024
- Influential strategist Richard Bernstein reflects on the most successful investment themes of the last twenty years and explains why deglobalization and the concomitant reindustrialization of America are his number one themes now.
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Bookshelf: Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype
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Richard is very articulate and thoughtful, always listen to him whether he is on Wealthtrack, CNBC, Blommberg etc. Next guest- Strategas-Jason Tennert.
I so disagree with your guest at time 6:31. No actively managed fund has outperformed low cost passive index fund (e.g. VOO or VGT) over the long run. The seesaw analogy sounds clever, but it’s salesman nonsense. Certainly if the gentleman had beaten VOO over the long run, he would have mentioned it. In fact the gentleman’s ETF, AIRR, since its inception, has underperformed relative to VGT. VGT has outperformed AIRR by over 300%!
Active management is a waste of time. Rotating in and out of stocks or sectors is mere busy work. The 5 year performance of AIRR=156.80% versus QQQ=157.02%, VGT=174.72%, VOO=84.99%. AIRR matched the QQQ and beat VOO, but VGT was the clear winner.
I GOT INTO VGT BECAUSE OF MY DISDAIN FOR FB. THEY DON'T OWN FB. VGT LESS fees then QQQ.
@@sunrizen GOOD INFO SUN
I think long run is subjective. The fact is most active mangers do not but some very talented ones have and do/did. The catch is do you think you can identify and pick the few relative to the universe of active managers. The answer is most likely not. Even if the funds managers do extraordinarily well like Peter Lynch did with Magellan fund (29.2% average over 13 years) . After he left the fund never regained it's market beating performance
@@sunrizen recency bias here. While I don't disagree with the facts you stated. The time frame matters. From 2000 to 2014 qqq was negative returns compared to small cap stocks that returned a postive 136% give or take. Now if you could bear to keep dollar cost averaging over thos 14 plus years eventually you were handsomely rewarded. The fact is most investors tapped out after just a few years of negative returns when they saw others making money. It's easy to see in hindsight but very different when you are watching hundreds of thousands of your dollars disappear and keep going nowhere for over a decade.
Wonderful discussion with Mr. Bernstein. Almost everyone I speak too can not see any outperformance from anything except large cap growth US stocks.
l finally had to cave and enter The monopoly Ai Stocks like NVDA MU msft. I can no longer wait for small caps to recover. America has allowed 7 companies to put all others out of business. Not much I can do to end the monopoly ,since I can't beat em I had to join them. Politicians are too addicted to 100 million donations to stop this. A $2000 limit per donor is what we need.
Interesting active vs passive ,but the fact is most indexes outperform active managed funds. After chasing hot stocks and funds for decades with low returns 3% in stocks I have learned to buy and hold for life is best. When I need to withdraw 3% a year I will keep 9 to 15% of my money in cash in case of recessions or a Depression. 3 years after the Dows 90% drop 1929 to 1932 stocks were only down 50% off the 1929 high
Congratulations Consuelo Mack and WealthTrack team. Great content & insights over 20 years enlightened people like me and helped to take right decisions whether markets in boom, bust, recession or panic. I first came to know about the show from Jason Zweig’s Money Magazine article in 2006, since then i watched every single episodes. Also, my portfolio grew more than 20x during this time.. My long term focused (plus low expense and diversified) investment decisions positively influenced by the great leaders appeared in the show.. Thank you and wish you all the best for next 20 years ❤ 🎉
Congrats on your 20th anniversary, Consuelo and Crew. I've been watching the show for 16 of the 20 years. I'd really like to see more academics rather than analyst. A return of Niall Ferguson would be great OR a first-time appearance of the best academic in finance right now Campbell Harvey. Thanks!
Great guest and interview as always.
I want to hear Ai plays, in index funds, mostly. I rarely buy stocks. When you buy Dividend paying funds you make the same returns a aa BRKB WITH NO DIVIDENDS, Example BRKB expect a return of 10.7% ,Div funds expect 6.4% growth 4.3% dividends total 10.7% (this was the DJIA returns last century). We all know BRKB made 24% for 25 years last century ,but now returns are close to SP 500.
Great! Very interesting strategy! Congratulations!
I’d like to see Guy Adami on your show. He brings new ideas. Tom Lee is another.
l bet Consuelo is not fond of CNBC, who pushed out senior hosts often.
Guy had a podcast and still might.
What a terrific guest.
Agreed if you are looking for a smooth talk. I am interested in good market returns, this is where the guest is missing the mark.
How about having the OTHER Bernstein on, sometime soon..William Bernstien! That guy always makes ear-splitting common sense to me, unlike few others on the scene, today!
I enjoy listening to Mr. Bernstein but never follow his advice. He’s been screaming on top of his lungs that the energy sector is the obvious winner that everybody is missing. Seems to be moving now to “de-globalization” theme while an average Joe is enjoying outsized returns. This market made many highly paid analysts and advisors look like fools.
Great presentation enjoyable to listen to thanks
Thank You, Richard Bernstein,....for saying ''you don't need a PhD in economics'' at 16:32. If I hear one more time ''it doesn't take a rocket scientist '' I may lose my mind.
@Tonymanero1960
Warren Buffet said you don't need a high IQ to be a good investor, you just need 2 qualities a lot of patience & self discipline
I hate the rocket term too. If True Elon would have Buffet returns.
@@fredatlas4396 Warren has become too big to outperform like he once did 24% a year for 25 years. He said this himself "If I didn't have so much money I could make a killing now'' .in a down market
He “thinks that right.” He isn’t sure?!
A balanced fund is a ballast
Interview Bob Robotti.
Why emerging markets? Explain.
I avoid Eem
Thanks!
Best bet is staples tech and dividend funds and total stock market fund and diversified equities
Why would anyone want a dividend and pay tax annually the return on div funds same as brkb and i have no taxes due. Only retired people might need a dividend if withdrawals on divs are a lower tax rate then cap gains.
Energy commodities too risky communication funds and tech funds are risky enough for me
Last time he said commodities I lost 30000 vanguard commodity fund ill hold it but Jesus he was wrong energy too wrong
Thes consensus players act like they are the Director in Fellini's 8 1/2. They never provide for a Black Swan Event.
Finally yes
I’m sure he made a fortune underperforming
❤❤❤
Morningstar 5 star funds are a sell. They historically do not continue to outperform. Deglobalization part interesting, but no sector advise.
Oh boy. He is probably under performing. Value investing has not done well last year
Active managers can slant the returns by choosing a period that favors them. Everytime I see a guest say we outperform last 5 yrs. I bring up a chart they did outperform in 5 yrs and the under perform all other periods.
Buy Berkshire Hathaway Class A and Class B shares and forget about it. Have Warren Buffet manage your money.
Since 2009 the S&P 500 index has beaten Berkshire Hathaway by some margin. I'm no expert, but I think the shear size of Berkshire Hathaway's funds under management may be impacting upon it's performance
Yep! And what stock has Berkshire been consistently buying? Their own stock, Berkshire Hathaway.
@@fredatlas4396 Buffet admitted BRK is too big to outperform ,he told his wife better to "go into in SP 500. Your better off"
@@oppenheim2 I am puzzled at BRK website it must be old news the stocks he own like Coke. Sees candies, Rail lines, private jets co. Clothing makers. No way these make 24% a year ,window dressing. I bet he leverages.
@@oppenheim2 And Berkshire Hathaway does have some money invested in the S&P 500 index, Voo & Spy etfs
Thomas Kessler