Next 6 months - BIG RALLY in the market [Interest Rate Cuts Explained]| Akshat Shrivastava
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- Опубліковано 12 лют 2024
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Stock Market is rallying upwards. What does the future look like?
I explain in detail in this video. do watch it till the end :)
P.S: NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please do your own due diligence.
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Logos: Wikipedia Commons
Video and TN editor: Ayushman Khare
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Also where's that Hindi channel link man!!
Just doesnt make sence. Interest rates were high in the last 1- 1 and half year. Then how come small caps have given great rally?
@AkshatZayn Your comment section is filled with spam. Please inform your viewers to be aware of them and not fall into their trap. We should be reporting these spammers.
Mutual funds …why not go thru them . That’s what I do for 50 per cent of my investments
Where might I find the link to industry specific outlook video ?
I bought SBI cards and HDFC bank and CUB. Based on his recommendation and now i am sitting on a loss of almost 20 percent
And I bought HDFC amc and sitting with 60% profit....😊😊😊😊
I also bought CUB since his recommendation and since then I bought and sold 2 times and availed about 20% profit each time
I still bought CUB yesterday....❤❤❤
Yes me too SBI cards, kotak & cub in loss as of now
SBI cards is a government company, lot of government intervention, they have excess cash reserves. You should book profits after elections and not buy it again.
I was bought n sold with good profit and now looking to buy again kotak, HDFC 😊
Hold it guys
Your macroeconomics are correct. But in India stocks rallies with sentiment. The stocks you recommended 1 month back, like Clean Energy, HDFC and PVR corrected more than 20% now.
also the SBI card
Check HDFC price after 2 years.... Stay Invested
Abe he is talking macroeconomics not microeconomics
ITS MACROECO NOT MICRO
@@drnitinkavede5759 I'm also buying heavily private banks. these people are greedy af bro, they want to double their money in a month. stock market doesn't work like that.
Thanks Akshat. 2 things i have been benefitted by your videos.
1. I do exactly the opposite to your opine and am benefitted every time.
2. I have also started gaining mastery over manipulative english.
Thanks again 😊
Nicely summarized 😁
Lol
correct 😂
😂 Good one
Akshat keep changing the sides.... extremely manipulative in nature.... play fear and greed to make ppl join member community....
Akshat while I appreciate your opinion about the stocks which have gone up in a short time, I don't agree that the govt, if voted to power will reduce capital expenditure. While it has planned to reduce the deficit, it's basically because it has got bumper revenues from both direct and indirect taxes! From a macro point, Thermax , Siemens etc... will also do well... I also have SW solar in my portfolio. However I sold IRFC after getting it in IPO based on your appreciation last year (Don't worry, not blaming you- decision to sell was mine even if you advised)!
Mind blowing explanation of Macro Economics..🎉❤
suzlon stock analysis does not add up . 2008 interest rate cut happened - Many stocks rallied post this but suzlon never recovered. It's stock specific . Nothing to do with Interest Rate.
It feels so honest when you say please subscribe... aisi knowledge koi nahi deta... Bahot mehnat lagti hai... Really appreciate the hard work you put in, especially on macros...
Thank you Akshat for the update. The market has been going up when interest rates were going up as well. Dhanyavaad Ji
A few days back this same guy was saying that the market is going to do a massive correction.
Now either way he's right😂
BHAI DONO BOL DENA CHAHIYE.... I AM BULLISH AUR FIR I AM SLIGHTLY BEARISH IN SHORT TERM
KUCH TOH SAHI HOGA... LOL
BASS DUKAN CHALU RAHNA CHAHIYE GYAN DENE KA
haha exactly 😅
yes 😂
😅😅😅 correct
20K to 30k is not a range. 30K from current levels is a huge gain from the index perspective
24:18 I have reduced some of my Energy, Infra, Auto and IT stocks in the last two months and invested more into BFSI stocks.
This table also shows which sectors have been pushing up the indices. I had this question because all the reputed large caps have underperformed - Asian paints, Dmart, Divis, Page. If these are going to rise up to their fair value, then will they push the indices further up, or will they go up at the cost of other stocks?
8:08 Bro Akshat, govt spending can also be reduced by import bill, for which crude is biggest contributor, how?
Crude and LNG deals with various different economies, recently India got LNG deal with Qatar at cheap rate, ONGC has found both gas and oil reserves in India and extraction started as well, ethnol blending, renewable push
Hi Akshat, thanks for the great content. Your interpretation of a reduction in the fiscal deficit translating into a slowdown in the Government's Capex is a bit confusing.
The Government's estimated Capex for FY25 will be approximately 11% higher than the revised estimate for FY24. Instead of cutting down on Capex, the Government estimates higher tax collection, which will be used to ease the fiscal deficit. In other words, there is no slowdown in Capex.
A fall in interest rates may further fuel private spending, which means a double benefit for GDP growth.
Let me know your thoughts.
You cannot be sure of interest rate cuts especially in India in the next 6-12 months given the fact that a weak monsoon is predictable this year because of the El-Nino phenomenon. In this case your whole hypothesis falls flat. Also, the inflation in India right now is near the upper side of the targeted band.
I really felt and subscribed this channel based on his great explanation of economics, does he really know why the interest rate is kept high in US ? its due to severe inflation and FED is targeting 2% and target is still far so they can't cut the rate as there will be severe inflation back in economy.
Reduction in fiscal deficit may also mean that govt may be eyeing money from other sources. Increase in tax collection, dividend payout to Govt, etc may close the gap. That way there will be increased spent on infra dev but low fiscal deficit. Correct me if I am wrong.
Thank you for this detailed explanation. really appreciate. Just wondering if the disinterest in PSU stocks include BEL and BHEL and some high priority sectors like Energy.
Thank you Sir. Very knowledgeable information. Follow & invest recommended.
Thank you very much for very good information👌
Nice video, great insights gained good knowledge.
Hi Akshat, in the fiscal deficit spreadsheet that you displayed, although the Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP was projected to reduce from 6.4% to 5.1%, the absolute expenditures amounts were shown to increase. Doesn't that mean that the Govt spending on infrastructure would increase in absolute terms and might not impact the stocks that you discussed? Or will the correction be more sentiment-driven rather than supported by projections?
Hi Akshat,
Can you give your opinion on Olctra for longterm?
actually akshat at 9:00 in case of all the railway stocks the euphoria was mainly due to a massive budget increase in last year's budget and on top of that all these companies have really low free float, so this was a sone pe suhaga kind of situation when there is euphoria also and free float is low too.
Kya?
Thank You Sir! V V interesting. Will there be any impact on the Sovriegn Gold Bonds?
In 2022-23 PE ratio of IRFC was ~ 4 to 5 but very few expert invested at that time as all expecting rally will come after Gov will reduce stake . But that reasoning gone wrong .
Now many other psu like banks , oil company are with PE - 5 to 10 , these may give 3 to 4 times return in 2-3 years due to PE expansion and Growth . Let’s see !!
Good information. Thank you
HDFC, kotak, cub, SBI cards, aavas and Bajaj finance...... All of them have fallen and the market is at a high. Suppose there is a correction there will be an even bigger fall, but will they move up in a sideways market?
Except Aavas I have all of them in my portfolio. 🙌
HDFC PROMOTION WAS AT PEAK IN LAST 1 YEAR BY HIM AND MANY OTHERS HOPE U UNDERSTAND
Except HDFC Bank, all other performed fairly well in their times, Bajaj finance and finserv both are really good stocks and have a lots of potential to grow 10x more because of the people's buying mentality nowadays, same for SBI card and kotak bank. If you can hold for next 5 years then expect atleast 50-100% from all of this stocks
@@arghyadeep5738 HAVE PATIENCE HDFC NAHI CHALEGA THO COUNTRY KYSE CHALEGA ?
@@jkj1459 HDFC Bank itself is running fine, but the stock market runs of emotions man, atleast for this hyped stocks. That's the real issue
Should keep investing
- Market in bull run
- Interest rates to be cut this year, expectation to start cutting from 2nd half of 2024, would go on till 2026
- When money moves from equity market to bond market, equity falls, and vice versa. 2 years bond mkt giving returns, now when interest rates will cut, money will flow from bonds to equity, and equity mkt will go up.
- Consumer demand will rise in next 2 years.
- Govt has decided to bring down fiscal deficit, therefore, govt spending will be lesser. Govt stocks like RVNL and IRFC PE ratio too high, and discord from fundamentals, stocks like these shouldn't be built positions in.
- Private stocks (Fmcg/consumer durables) would likely revive.
- Micro cap likely to grow for 2-3 years, can be multi-baggers.
- High volatility in market for next 2 years, but world rebuilding.
- MLDs for hedging
- Banks are somewhat undervalued, all other sectors other sectors overvalued
- IT looks weak, Akshat has started to exit IT, not buying midcap IT
- Avoid PSU
- Dangerous time for commodities
Good stocks
- SW Solar (Reliance investor)
Can you trust me ?
Outstanding and very depth analysis of market. Your investment strategy is very practical. Thankyou very much for your work.
A great video. Thanks a lot🙏🙏🙏
love u akshat sharing good knowledge well done keep it up
THANK YOU 👍
People with this kind of knowledge usually withhold it in the interest of safeguarding their secrets. Thanks for not being one of them. I'm not your community member but i thank you for your free educational videos. Really appreciate for what you are doing for us middle class folk.
@akshat , do you see FED delaying rate cuts than expected earlier due to the latest high inflation data that came today ?
Invested in HUL after listening to his analysis 2 years back ... No profit since 2 years...
Akshat what about to buy tata tech stocks??
Great video and got a clarity for my investment portfolio
Love your way of teaching akshat❤
Nice presentation sir👍👍👍
When do you think they will start cutting rates?
Thank You
IT , renewable also ab Kum hey toh buy kar sakte hai kya ?? Intent is long term investment
Sir stocks to consider please?
GREAT WORK AND THANK YOU SOO MUCH SIR
Great content and effort 👌 I appreciate ❤
He is very good to analyse the economy of US and India. This you can use to analyse the share market move for the future. Stocks to be selected only after your own study based on other you tubers stocks analytics. Always keep 50 persotage in midcap stock with the theme of the present time like Railway, green energy, Defence,finance , Hotels.Buying such stock on a fair value .eg: Rvnl available at 125 range for month after OFS.SJVN available at 70 after OFS. Tata motors share available in cheap rate even when it started profit making from losses. So one should study and make investment.
@akshatzyan not for all companies ..but selected stocks ..all depends on election ...what aboout solar
Good information. But more confusing than convincing !
The stock market rally still appears to be in the midst of a normal pullback. I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market for the bull run, is this a good time to buy or no? my reserve of $450K is laying waste and I don't know what to do at this point tbh.
Find stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market long term. For a successful long-term strategy you have to seek guidance from a financial advisor.
I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
*Natalie Marie Gentry* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you Sir
Nicely explained
Thanks a lot😊
IRFC will correct small, but it will groww bcz govt is increasing the vande Bharat production and also more money is getting into setting up the mall gadi track. So anyone can go for when PE becomes slightly better but surely it will go up in upcoming time
He plz give ur insights on lastest Morgan Stanley report. They are predicting fall of 20-30% this ur
Nobody can predict a fall that big. So relax. I'm hearing negative news since the covid rally. People waiting for a fall are still waiting.
In short, all the news is BS.
To get true insights kindly enroll to his paid club and sessions 😂
Hi Akshat,thanks for all that you are doing to educate investors like me. Pls make some content on ETF investing incl in etf' listed abroad.Thanks.
Rgds
I agree with your opinion but i still think there is last chance for railway stocks before election
Hi Akshat,
How to be community member and how much it will cost?
How to invest in MLDs?
Hospital sector is the safest option now. In that most of the stocks are overvalued with high PE but narayana hrudalaya have lower PE.
Thanks for the video Akshat. Along with the Fed interest rate trends, it will be more relevant to include RBI interest rates also
If feds change the interest rate and according to past history RBI also cuts the interest rates
@@20yashgandhi73 US interest rate can be an influence, but RBI mainly focuses on several domestic factors to set interest rates
I was about to take completely opposite view 😂 well I still bet that market will not rally in atleast next 6th month, till FIIs will not stop selling due to SEBI rule, it’s not easy to consume their selling so quickly!!
One request sir, Please use those world maps in which India's map is correct.
The truth is that "POK" is in Pakistan and "COK" is in China. Using a map which shows these parts in India won't change this fact.
It is a question of INDIA'S territorial claims , this should be corrected , had it been such a blunt claim and doesn't really make a difference what are those innocent soldiers on our borders doing , its for the integrity of these so called lines only .
The least we can do is to be considerate about their efforts than blabbering around on some media platforms trying to be the MR NONSENSE PRACTICAL .
Is this Desh Bhakhti channel?.
It is an offence to show such maps...
It does matter, this is how one loses psychological warfare. It passively distorts your ideology. An example of it is already here in comments. People are considering it as "the truth " denying the fact that j&k is an integral and inalienable part of India. One should avoid using terms such as COK if they are not aware of Aksai chin.
If one is benefiting from India and the Indian economy then Deshbakati is everywhere. One more interesting fact Akshat sir is also deshbhakt that's why he has chosen to stay in India despite being a millionaire.
IRFC’s business model thrives when the government cuts spending. Higher govt. spend on Railways means Railways doesn’t need its financing arm (irfc) to raise additional money from the market.
This vedio was excellent and views expressed are supported by facts, quite logical too. Views specially on the PSUs which includes railways does make sense. Most of my investments are diversified to hedge the risk. However, I am invested in railways, defence stocks, power and renewable energy and I T. After listening to you, I feel I shd book profits and exit from railway and IT stocks at the earliest. Thanks for your impartial views 👍
I want to buy healthcare index fund. Which one I should buy @akshat
@Akshat Shrivastava Where to buy MLD?
What is your opinion on PSU stocks like REC & PFC whose valuation is still reasonable as compared to their earnings and revenue growth
Good content. However, do note that government is not going to reduce the infrastructure expenditure. You can clearly see it in the estimated budget for 24 and 25. Capital expenditure will increase by 24% and 17% in 24 and 25 respectively. Government is expecting revenue receipts to increase considerably, leading to reduction in deficit as % of GDP
Good point.
If bjp govt returns spending on infrastructure railways roads shopping etc will increase I think
Sir please make a video on bandhan Bank....
Need your expert advice on HDFC, Paytm and delta corp share - shall we buy it ?
Again man thanks for the video
I like his vedios before watching then I start watching 😊
Akshat Bhai please make a video on how Sterling Wilson solar can give stellar returns
Already intrest rate cut factored in when jerom paul given statement on intrest cut. But how much rate cut will happen ? It should come near to zero then only it will affect share market.
How do we know if the consumer or government spending has increased or decreased?
Hey you are amazing yaar
..you made me understand about mld in simple language...now I use grow ...how can I buy MLD in grow...
Hi Akshat. Very well explained video. May i know what is your take on Jindal Stainless steel and SAIL kind of stocks? I have made quite a good profit on it. Should i be holding or selling it?
Superrrrbbbb AnalysiS
😊😊😊
Please answer
If interest rate goes down what will happen to gold price and SGB bonds will it have any effect.
Pharma is a sector you have been speaking about recently but from this chart it also looks pretty over valued. Thoughts??
What will happen to my vauld deposit. I bought btc and etherium and now can't withdraw my money
Akshat, please make a video on ASM / GSM, why is it being put on companies and where to get more info about these.
I am trying to join your member community but not able to make payment......help me out
You are a confused guy, everyday change your version about the market. Few weeks back you said the bull market has just started so you are heavily investing now. After a couple of weeks, you started saying that the bull market is almost over. Now a sharp correction is coming, maintaining some emergency funds will be a good idea. Now you are saying it's time to invest. Man you have gone crazy to increase views. Learn from Basant Maheswari.
This guy is a fraud
Sovereign Gold Bonds, more 'bout them. Please enlighten us!
Best way of investing in gold. But buy from secondary market
I have invested in bandhan Bank now something bad news coming on that now what your thoughts on that
is it a good idea to invest in microcap index funds
Thanks
Fantastic content
Hi Akshat, I respect your videos and have learned a lot from them. Off late you are pushing very hard on the member community than you should do. The community is quite costly and not everyone could afford it. So better if you stick to advertising once in the video and not to push this hard.
Portfolio size vs MLD - kese decide kre kitna amount ka MLD buy kre ?
Based on your analysis I invested in a pnb a small amount and now its three times. Didn't applied any other analytics.
Campus activewear, vedant fashion par detail analysis kijiye
Interesting perspective on Railway stocks.. bought them last year and biggest position was IRFC at 27 levels... Banked my investment along the way and held for the upside. Halved my position at 125 only to see it go to 175 in a few days... Reason this stock is running is because holders like me get hammered when we take profits... Now brokerages recommendations suddenly coming up at 150... Unfair to compare it to 2019 valuation as then it was trading 50% of book...
Hi akshat i have rvnl shares at a rate of 117 should I book profits and move away or should I continue to hold the stock
As a subscriber i would request akshat to increase the analysis part about stocks more.macro is fine you have taught a lot but these points are getting very repitative about interest rate cut bond market to equity market and all .. please do some indept analysis about new stocks may be about more microcaps( i.e. in detail analysis not like reliance bought share so we can consider buying it by that logic we can buy n number of shares).. future and options etc etc
11.1 lakh crore Capex announced in Budget, so how come govt spending will be reduced in infra ?
I would rather short IT stocks than buying Private Sector Banks at this point of time. for eg. OFSS is highly over valued. and we can buy PE trade for next 3 months (DYOR - not a trade advise)
Ghana samajhdaar ban raha hai chomu
@@chetanshukla768 It is not nice to call your father 'Chomu' in a public forum.
@@aakasharora12 Apne dada ke baare mein aise bolte hain? Yahi sikhaya hai maine tujhe badtameez
Hi Akshat i was really great Insights on micro pointers kindly also guide with few great websites where these data can collated like next year forward earnings and stock or sector is over valued or under valued ... kindly guide with website or links in description that will be great help..