Predicting The Stock Market's Next Move - Technical Analysis
Вставка
- Опубліковано 4 тра 2016
- Most new (and experienced traders) try to incorrectly use technical analysis for predicting the stock market's next move. The trouble with most technical analysis indicators is that they just aren't profitable or predictive. In fact, we've backtested more than 1,400 technical indicator variations over 20 years to see what works and published the results in our research report called "SIGNALS" which is only available right here at Option Alpha.
Click here to Subscribe - ua-cam.com/users/OptionAlpha?s...
Interested in learning more about technical analysis? Check out our Technical Analysis Playlist for dozens of in depth videos that will show you everything you've ever wanted to know and more - • Technical Analysis
Looking for more? Check out our Top 10 Most Watched Videos! Whether you are only familiar with stock trading and the stock market and want to learn how to trade options, or are already an advanced trader, there is something in this list for you - • Top 10 Most Watched Vi...
Welcome to the Option Alpha UA-cam Channel! Our mission is to provide traders like you with the most comprehensive options trading and investing education available anywhere, free of charge. We're here to help you take your trading and financial education to the next level! For more, visit our website at www.optionalpha.com - Навчання та стиль
Hi Kirk, if we have the probability of 0.7 to win $ 26, and the risk is $ 74. This means that the probability of loosing $ 74 is 0.3 right? Now, if we make large number of trades then on average we would loose $4. (0.7*26-0.3*74=-4) how is that profitable? Also returns are not exactly normally distributed. The distribution has "fat tails", meaning that extreme values are more frequent than in normal distribution.
That's because you don't account for IV's over expectation in pricing and when you close early you dramatically increase your win rate. See the podcast we just released on this here: optionalpha.com/exiting-option-trades-22693.html
0.33 odd with 70% chances to success is _very_ close to a negative zone! You must either to increase the chances to 80% or to wait for odd at least 0.5
That's because you don't account for IV's over expectation in pricing and when you close early you dramatically increase your win rate. See the podcast we just released on this here: optionalpha.com/exiting-option-trades-22693.html
are there stratiegies that allow you to put an ATM trade where you risk as much as you could possibly make that have a 70% winnong ratio?
Not really no - that'd be insane arbitrage.
You are the man, kirk! More power!
Glad it helped!
what platform do you use?
thinkorswim: optionalpha.com/tos