Stock Market To Drop 30%; Why Bullish Economist Turns Bearish | Peter Berezin

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  • Опубліковано 26 лип 2024
  • Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist of BCA Research, gives his outlook for U.S. stock markets, economic growth, and the future of China.
    Watch Peter's last interview with me: • Is China Collapsing? W...
    *This video was recorded on July 2, 2024
    Subscribe to TDLR newsletter: davidlinreport.substack.com/
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    FOLLOW PETER BEREZIN:
    Twitter (@PeterBerezinBCA): / peterberezinbca
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    *This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
    0:00 - Intro
    1:15 - Bullish to bearish
    3:00 - Stocks vs. real economy
    4:05 - Consumer spending
    6:13 - Small businesses
    7:26 - Unemployment rate
    9:38 - The Fed and inflation
    13:35 - S&P 500 target
    16:21 - Tech stocks
    20:30 - Defensive sectors
    21:30 - Election and assets
    24:42 - China’s economy
    27:46 - Chinese gold demand
    29:22 - Geopolitics
    30:13 - Base metals
    32:20 - Chinese stocks
    33:00 - China’s impact on the U.S.
    34:13 - Treasury yields
    #economy #stocks #investing

КОМЕНТАРІ • 356

  • @TheDavidLinReport
    @TheDavidLinReport  22 дні тому +15

    Is now the peak for U.S. equities? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
    FOLLOW PETER BEREZIN:
    Twitter (@PeterBerezinBCA): twitter.com/PeterBerezinBCA
    BCA Research: www.bcaresearch.com/
    BCA Research Twitter (@bcaresearch): twitter.com/bcaresearch

    • @jcgoogle1808
      @jcgoogle1808 21 день тому

      33:55 says he's going into long duration bonds. I agree. Been trading them.
      Ho ho ho,... Merry Independence Day and Happy New Year,.. and stay warm out there,.. when your decking your balls and roasting your chestnuts.
      Uhm,,.. wait,... anyway,.. I'm in it.
      I'm Joe Brandon and I approve this message.

    • @NghiaTran-kb6yk
      @NghiaTran-kb6yk 21 день тому

      😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

    • @ST-mh7tb
      @ST-mh7tb 21 день тому

      p? 5 r=assseee33s3³433334 4#=@a rfQ-?-3z

    • @justincrane5821
      @justincrane5821 21 день тому

      I think we are very close to an equity markets top

    • @takethat941
      @takethat941 21 день тому

      30% decline? about 60% give or take 10% - hold on even gold is screwed. tide has gone out your already high and dry.

  • @Aarrenrhonda3
    @Aarrenrhonda3 21 день тому +320

    In both the short and long run, a bear and bullish market provides equal avenue to amass good gains I've seen people make 6figures profit as high as $200k in a bear market and I've seen them pull it off much easily in a bull market, it all comes down to having the right information and applying it.

    • @Peterl4290
      @Peterl4290 21 день тому +2

      well politicians for certain are gaining off the crash, and true the average individual could profit off a crash but such high-grade investing come with equal risk which can only be managed by a proper pro or expert.

    • @larrypaul-cw9nk
      @larrypaul-cw9nk 21 день тому +1

      No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 21 день тому

      bravo! the whole markt has gone berserk now, almost not possible to outperform without expert guidance.. think your adviser would get on the phone with a newcomer? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation ?

    • @larrypaul-cw9nk
      @larrypaul-cw9nk 21 день тому +1

      Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 21 день тому

      I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.

  • @JefferyDuns
    @JefferyDuns 13 днів тому +67

    Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- 13 днів тому

      This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk 13 днів тому

      Diversification is essential while investing. Because of this, I have focused my interests on a few major areas based on their performance and anticipated growth. They include coins, gold, the EV industry, renewable energy, and IT and health (AMD). Together with my financial advisor, I'm developing an AI-based investing strategy and researching stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet, among others. A year and a half of consistent growth has passed.

    • @mikeroper353
      @mikeroper353 13 днів тому

      Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk 13 днів тому

      Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @mikeroper353
      @mikeroper353 13 днів тому

      I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip

  • @buttrflyns
    @buttrflyns 9 днів тому +300

    Honestly, this situation makes me uneasy, especially with the potential depression, not just a recession. I'm not sure about my $130K investment strategy given the economic uncertainty.

    • @JilldaBaby
      @JilldaBaby 9 днів тому

      If you're not familiar with market investing tactics, you should get advice from a financial counselor.

    • @GraceKauffman
      @GraceKauffman 9 днів тому

      I agree! That's why I work with one. My $520K portfolio is well-prepared for all market conditions, having grown 85% since early last year. My advisor and I are planning for this year too. In my opinion, financial advisors are among the most important professionals, just like doctors.

    • @centollero
      @centollero 9 днів тому

      I could really use the expertise of an advisor like that.

    • @GraceKauffman
      @GraceKauffman 9 днів тому

      Her name is BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ. Just look her up

    • @centollero
      @centollero 9 днів тому

      Thanks for sharing. I searched for her name and found her website. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before contacting her. Thanks again.

  • @Millerj2450
    @Millerj2450 14 днів тому +11

    Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and low a strategy with a long term edge.

    • @campelm
      @campelm 14 днів тому +1

      Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

    • @Pat_laura22
      @Pat_laura22 14 днів тому +2

      Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what about to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

    • @lunaezj-e9b
      @lunaezj-e9b 14 днів тому +3

      Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor background and qualifications?

    • @Pat_laura22
      @Pat_laura22 14 днів тому

      “Iynne Marie Stella” is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @Daniel_12_3
      @Daniel_12_3 14 днів тому

      I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

  • @CHANCEY-h4d
    @CHANCEY-h4d 15 днів тому +623

    How do i make money from the stock market, i've invested roughly 80K into stocks but my portfolio is not even making up to 5% increase yearly. what strategy should I use to maximize gains.

    • @Pickerell
      @Pickerell 15 днів тому +1

      I was having similar experienced until I started using a broker to redistribute stocks in my portfolio. since then i've seen a lot of improvements.

    • @PapiChulo-t1s
      @PapiChulo-t1s 15 днів тому +1

      @@Pickerell True, my portfolio had a massive crash in 2022, I nearly sold everything and put into cash savings, but i was advised to contact a broker. I followed the brokers instructions closely and my portfolio started to increase by 10% monthly.

    • @AGNESCHANG-u9h
      @AGNESCHANG-u9h 15 днів тому

      @Papichulo-t1s pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio

    • @SlowrideHome91
      @SlowrideHome91 15 днів тому

      @PapiChulo-t1s pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio

    • @AGNESCHANG-u9h
      @AGNESCHANG-u9h 15 днів тому

      @Papchulo-t1s this is all new to me, How do I find a suitable fiduciary advisor, can you recommend any?

  • @benjaminsmith3469
    @benjaminsmith3469 16 днів тому +239

    I came across some statements from big investors expressing concerns that the stock market rally could be short-lived. My concern is my $600K stock portfolio is still recovering from a dip of almost 40%, how do I navigate these complex situations?

    • @ConradGosling
      @ConradGosling 16 днів тому +4

      Diversification and understanding market dynamics are crucial, especially during uncertainty. Monitor both positive and cautionary signals, or consult a professional expert.

    • @alicegomez7232
      @alicegomez7232 16 днів тому +4

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burned by their own emotions. Early last year after my lengthy divorce I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

    • @billybrannon6394
      @billybrannon6394 16 днів тому +3

      Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need for one.

    • @alicegomez7232
      @alicegomez7232 16 днів тому +3

      Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @Emily-le2op
      @Emily-le2op 16 днів тому +2

      Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online. I'll take a chance and see how it goes. Thanks for the info

  • @rickpearl1529
    @rickpearl1529 21 день тому +14

    I've been hearing this same forecast forever. The insiders have figured out how to kick the can down the road indefinitely.

    • @ChineseRatfaceCHANG
      @ChineseRatfaceCHANG 19 днів тому

      Its an election year, theyll make sure to delay things until trump gets in and is forced to call a recession. Noone wants to take the blame

    • @Grybyx
      @Grybyx 10 днів тому

      Agree to some extent but I think the big boys probably want a 2-5% drop every now and again so they can buy back in at the low after selling at the highs

  • @kangamagic1206
    @kangamagic1206 21 день тому +6

    Peter is insightful, good at articulating difficult concepts, and a fun listen. Please have him back.

  • @mjbucar
    @mjbucar 21 день тому +21

    Peter Berezin's perspectives are refreshingly interesting and most realistic. He is an excellent guest speaker - thank you.

    • @bigo8738
      @bigo8738 21 день тому

      his statements may not be groundbreaking,HOWEVERRR His vocabulary is truly astounding and a testament to his high level of intelligence. His choice of words not only enriches his communication but also highlights his erudition. This makes him both sagacious and lexically adept, setting him apart in any professional discourse. *I am currently striving to become more lexically adept but believe my sagaciousness is at lowest, subpar 😉😊🤭🏌‍♂️

  • @nitemoves3157
    @nitemoves3157 21 день тому +6

    It’s a good conversation. I just will believe it when I see it.

  • @yodurk21
    @yodurk21 21 день тому +4

    There's still over $1T in RRP and TGA combined. Plenty of liquidity and govt spending to keep stock prices propped up. I'm not sure much else matters anymore .

  • @markphillips2648
    @markphillips2648 21 день тому +5

    Over 40 years of investing in healthy and not so healthy markets and just today I had a conversation with a good friend after he said ,”have you been watching the market I’m kicking ass !”My answer, “When others get greedy I get going,” “I have been selling every high for the last two weeks and will continue this until the bust.” I explained in my bond portfolio that you do not hold this for the yield but for the convexity and the blank stare back was troubling. He said I’m ok,I’m invested in the total stock market and when I asked if he was worried about concentration risk he said, “what’s that.” I explained concentration risk to him and he said that he was frozen and that we will just have to see . Scary

  • @ersvale1986
    @ersvale1986 21 день тому

    13:08 «It’s that golden shower» 😂 But seriously: great interview, great insights.

  • @luisbarragan9555
    @luisbarragan9555 21 день тому +11

    I'm running out of money to keep buying calls 😂 all your guests are amazing contras. Thank you for your service.

    • @spatialmemory5040
      @spatialmemory5040 19 днів тому +1

      Don't stress it. The fewer you buy the less you'll lose.😂

  • @leonlei5102
    @leonlei5102 20 днів тому +1

    Among all of the interview, HeiThe only person who actually knows China and understand the relationship between base metal and China, bring him back David

  • @cjb8993
    @cjb8993 21 день тому +7

    He's right, the economy is hitting a wall on many different metrics however, the SPX is also exhausting and will top in a week or so, if not sooner. See you at 35-3800 SPX later this year.

    • @Fearzero
      @Fearzero 21 день тому +2

      Definitely not. The printer must go BRRRR. Deflation risk is far worse than inflation. Japan went deflationary and never recovered.

    • @cjb8993
      @cjb8993 21 день тому +2

      @@Fearzero Doesn't matter, the charts don't lie. We called the covid crash 6 months ahead of time, we called the ensuing recovery from that period and even called this top in SPX, using EW. It's not that hard, the fundies come out in the technicals, not the other way around. Now we'll see 3*** SPX this year, and then a lower high in 18-30 months after we bottom...
      Second Great Depression is coming soon.

    • @Fearzero
      @Fearzero 21 день тому +1

      @@cjb8993 Nope but have fun being 2 years early. You're still wrong. Short away and we'll see what happens.

    • @cjb8993
      @cjb8993 21 день тому +1

      @@Fearzero your thesis? Right, you don’t have one, just emotion steeped in confidence. What could go wrong? 😂

    • @billadama
      @billadama 21 день тому +1

      The problem with printing money is that it doesn't work when there's weak demand. What is money printing really? It's mainly banks lending money into existence. The thinking is that if rates are low, banks will lend more of it. But if the economy is slowing lending becomes much riskier, and banks will want a higher interest rate to compensate their increased risk, which works against the Fed's stimulus efforts. The situation is much more complicated than lower rates = more money in the economy.

  • @jhull5870
    @jhull5870 21 день тому +2

    The only thing that matters to the S&P 500 or one should say the S&P Mag 7 is interest rates going lower or as we have seen these past 8 months is the assumption. And the reality is that the Mag 7 do not reflect the true economy.

  • @Resmith18SR
    @Resmith18SR 21 день тому +2

    Sam Altman speaking to the Vulture, I mean Venture Capitalists is hilarious. 😂

  • @Jamesjerome0
    @Jamesjerome0 2 дні тому +3

    1 dont even know where the stock -market is headed to right now. my portfolio of around 200k is not in-creasing more than 5% and people are predicting a crash .

    • @GaryNicka
      @GaryNicka 2 дні тому +3

      i'd advise you re.distribute assets in your port-folio with the help of a pro- so you don't get burnt in the market,.

  • @BruceWayne-sh4nb
    @BruceWayne-sh4nb 21 день тому +1

    That wrestling reference about becoming a heel made my night lol

  • @s0.0s
    @s0.0s 20 днів тому +2

    "All you have to do is make a few assumptions" 🤣

  • @bbustin1747
    @bbustin1747 20 днів тому

    Great guest and great thorough analysis !

  • @bpb5541
    @bpb5541 21 день тому +1

    Finally someone talked about why the FED funds rate doesn't really matter. It's the 10 year yield that does. If it just stays here lots of buisnesses are in trouble. What happens when it surges up past 5% again and keeps going. It will be mass distruction. The FED has no control of the 10 year yield. When the FED comes in and buys up those failed auctions as a buyer of last resort... hyperinflation or said better stagflation is about to hit us like a train.

    • @ryandeleon222
      @ryandeleon222 18 днів тому

      I don't think so. 10 year is going DOWN before it would do what you're saying.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 18 днів тому

      @@ryandeleon222 what if the FED slams the short end to zero really fast and folks realize that the US is in way worse shape then they have been reporting for the last year and will need to double the debt because that is what happens during a recession they need money to stimulate, and the debt goest to 70 trillion. Then what. Who is going to lend to the teenage girl that has all of her credit cards maxed out without requiring more money to assume the risk of her possibly never being able to pay it back... which means the 10 year is going higher not lower. It has. Broken out of the its 10 year weekly down trend and is now up trending. Money is no longer free and this is the real risk I think most are missing. What if I am correct? It's end game stuff and the US Government does not control the long end. They don't really even control the short end they really just follow the 2 year with a lag but hey what the hell do I know. Should I be correct and we will no soon enough just be ready because a 10 year going up not down would cause massive distruction and if you have read some books you know exactly how to take advantage of it. Should it not go up... we go into hyperinatation or worse stagflation. Pick one. A soft / no l landing was last year.

  • @brynduffy
    @brynduffy 21 день тому +7

    You don't need copper in a recession.

    • @illusions46n2
      @illusions46n2 21 день тому +3

      The demand for copper is only going to rise.

    • @s0.0s
      @s0.0s 20 днів тому

      ​@@illusions46n2Not in a recession.

  • @ktanrko
    @ktanrko 21 день тому

    Had a chance to meet Peter in person. Just amazing!

  • @andreab.8523
    @andreab.8523 20 днів тому

    I really enjoyed this video, thank you.

  • @Xdami87
    @Xdami87 21 день тому +4

    I heard about market crash 2 ywars ago , 3 . Recently in october and since then almost everzz week or two. And its slways opposite.wjat everybody expects csn simply not happen.

    • @Bizzyphazilly
      @Bizzyphazilly 21 день тому +1

      So your saying that the stock market CANNOT crash??
      Is that definitely??

  • @ChrisSwaenepoel
    @ChrisSwaenepoel 21 день тому +5

    Still no time frame on the 3750 lol😂

  • @Tnks4cmin
    @Tnks4cmin 15 днів тому +5

    I knew at some point the bull market will end and a bear begins, it goes on and on... I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?

    • @Marquez919
      @Marquez919 15 днів тому +2

      many investors make common mistakes like not researching enough, and not having a clear plan. in my opinion, some financial situations can be handled on your own, while others are best navigated in consultation with an advisor.

    • @ScottStraw
      @ScottStraw 15 днів тому +1

      Agreed, partnering with the right planner is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market, and recently hit 140% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7-figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year.

    • @livia-s6t
      @livia-s6t 15 днів тому +1

      truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @ScottStraw
      @ScottStraw 15 днів тому

      “Sharon Lynne Hart” is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @BevanBraselton
      @BevanBraselton 15 днів тому

      I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

  • @JMRBR
    @JMRBR 21 день тому +9

    For institutions to make money, they need to force price to extremes so that retail traders are convinced that price will keep going. Only then there will be enough retail liquidity that institutions will use to close out their positions with hefty profits. Otherwise they couldn't make a buck. Hence, when most retail thinks this market CAN'T go down, is when the market WILL go down. It's close now. A little more patience if you're a bear.

    • @LadyOrion2012
      @LadyOrion2012 21 день тому

      Just waiting until it crashes. I am waiting for a 25% or more drop.

    • @RichardArthur-jh1ph
      @RichardArthur-jh1ph 21 день тому +1

      It's mostly passive investing through 401Ks that's been driving up the price of a few stocks. Meanwhile, there are great companies that are values now that may fair better when the bubble bursts.

    • @Bizzyphazilly
      @Bizzyphazilly 21 день тому

      I’m just waking up and beginning to stretch.. 🥱

  • @joepappas4968
    @joepappas4968 21 день тому +6

    His speech is similar to Doomberg.

  • @kulvantsingh571
    @kulvantsingh571 21 день тому +1

    Why didn't you ask any questions about de-dollarization, BRICS being able to bypass US Senctions and BRICS currency?

    • @filippxx
      @filippxx 21 день тому

      Because it's irelevant to anyone else besides Russian bots. China doesn't need this, and the rest are irelevant.

  • @omartalamantes8398
    @omartalamantes8398 21 день тому

    Great interview.

  • @brynduffy
    @brynduffy 21 день тому +3

    This didn't make any sense:
    Regarding Chinese individual savings, it goes into households but even though the housing in China is a complete potemkin village, "The assets still exist"?
    This is the lie in this interview. I believe we're talking about $20 trillion dollars representing the Chinese housing market and at least half of that is 100% fiction. Maybe 9/10ths.
    This is a massive failure in this interview.

    • @jimscherer8072
      @jimscherer8072 18 днів тому

      You have a main line to PBOC ? No one does. Put you head back up your butt hole.

  • @mirov77
    @mirov77 20 днів тому +1

    no peak or top especially when we have more bears coming out.

  • @Psychetwo
    @Psychetwo 20 днів тому

    That was a good question from David. With ecb, boe, boc, cutting, why is the fed keeping higher for longer. For me, I feel like partly it is because the US is exporting inflation throughout the world. We have printed money non stop in response to covid shut down. Somehow we are not expecting inflation? Or are somehow shocked by how much inflation we are getting?

  • @jerryphillips6809
    @jerryphillips6809 21 день тому +1

    Sam nailed it... AI "generally intelligent."

  • @thomasallen1951
    @thomasallen1951 21 день тому +4

    Are people using their credit cards to buy Bitcoin?

    • @Hass-lz2tw
      @Hass-lz2tw 21 день тому +1

      Hahaha

    • @Fearzero
      @Fearzero 21 день тому

      I have gotten loans to buy it. 68 percent CAGR for bitcoin. No brainer.

    • @jasoncortez1238
      @jasoncortez1238 21 день тому

      @@Fearzeroit’s down almost 20% from the high 3 years ago. How is it a no brainwr investment? meanwhile SPY just hit another ATH and gold flirting with its ath set not too long ago

  • @abrahamisabella8513
    @abrahamisabella8513 17 днів тому

    Great interview 👍

  • @annasad
    @annasad 7 днів тому

    One of the mistake analyst make is to compare the markets 6 years ago or 10 years ago. Due to population boom. There will always be more money than in the past and hence Co-relation with the past PE is incorrect.

  • @Resmith18SR
    @Resmith18SR 21 день тому

    Can I borrow the Frozen Glass analogy or do I have to pay a fee? 😂😂😂

  • @vincentmurphy9252
    @vincentmurphy9252 20 днів тому

    Guy makes sense more then most on

  • @orvinstrickler2130
    @orvinstrickler2130 21 день тому +2

    The economy was hot two years ago? Where did you get that from?

    • @PCGamer77
      @PCGamer77 21 день тому +4

      Biden.

    • @jimscherer8072
      @jimscherer8072 18 днів тому

      COVID stimulus

    • @orvinstrickler2130
      @orvinstrickler2130 18 днів тому

      @jimscherer8072 Well if you were investing in Trump stocks with the Stimi checks, that's gonna pay off big in just a few months.

  • @mertcamlibel4661
    @mertcamlibel4661 18 днів тому

    This channel is hilarious. Bears stroking eachother

  • @HH-bc2bv
    @HH-bc2bv 21 день тому

    Very interesting 👏👏👏

  • @joeblow4499
    @joeblow4499 20 днів тому

    Globalist investors always consider how politics affect current investments. Encouraging corporate growth through tariffs have an immediate effect, but like growing date palms(long term growth benefit), it will return industry to the USA. What is unknown is if common sense economic policy will turn our economy around before debt sinks the nation.

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 16 днів тому

    Cutting funds rate does not amount to easing, QE is easing!

  • @whdndrn
    @whdndrn 21 день тому +1

    Will any youtuber point out all those who make horrendous false calls about bull run or crashes?

    • @JulioFastcruise
      @JulioFastcruise 21 день тому

      Lazy people get what they deserve. Doesn't take much effort to search what someone has predicted before and if they were correct

  • @bibibachmd9995
    @bibibachmd9995 21 день тому +2

    We shall see about TLT longterm. Robert Prechter, Charles Nenner, and other market cycle analysts are forecasting a longterm bear market in bonds.

    • @billadama
      @billadama 21 день тому

      When countries like Japan dump US debt (the largest holder btw), it will drive interest rates higher. The bullish calls on long bonds are not without risk.

    • @bibibachmd9995
      @bibibachmd9995 21 день тому

      @@billadama Agree.

    • @billybudapest3129
      @billybudapest3129 21 день тому +1

      I’m skeptical on a long term basis, but I think there is a strong case for a short to intermediate term rally in U.S. bonds. I definitely would approach it as a trade not a long term investment.

    • @billadama
      @billadama 21 день тому

      @@billybudapest3129 Yes, they could rally early into rate cuts, as could the stock market for that matter.

    • @RichardArthur-jh1ph
      @RichardArthur-jh1ph 21 день тому

      TLT during the crash only.

  • @marcobiagioni
    @marcobiagioni 21 день тому +3

    Love the frozen glass analogy

  • @silviofontana5144
    @silviofontana5144 21 день тому

    The Australian Reserve Bank also is playing with the people of Australia and not telling the truth. Like a rubber band, the RB keeps stretching out the inflation issue and now considering rising interest rates.

  • @Nathan-om8es
    @Nathan-om8es 21 день тому +8

    I'm new to trading, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.

    • @Stefanie-qj7lw
      @Stefanie-qj7lw 21 день тому

      I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached

    • @Stefanie-qj7lw
      @Stefanie-qj7lw 21 день тому

      Evelyn Turner is the professional that guides me and her optimal returns are really impressive

    • @Gilmore-ho8rz
      @Gilmore-ho8rz 21 день тому

      Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.

    • @Oprah34
      @Oprah34 21 день тому

      Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a UA-cam referral like this

    • @melissaziglar6620
      @melissaziglar6620 21 день тому

      Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!

  • @umbytrader8933
    @umbytrader8933 20 днів тому

    Improbable!

  • @RajuCherry-rw3ie
    @RajuCherry-rw3ie 21 день тому

    thanks for bringing up XAI80K pair - Watching all your videos when I get notified

  • @yupingsun40
    @yupingsun40 21 день тому

    he wants or predicts, but it is risky. You are reactive which is the right approach.

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 16 днів тому

    But w/ treasury yields falling, gold will go up, right?

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 16 днів тому

    Hanke said China was bottoming, though, right?

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 16 днів тому

    How would gold miners perform in that environment?

  • @YS-ys1us
    @YS-ys1us 21 день тому +6

    An economist predicts stock market like a scientist treats patients. Noah, you need a physician. 😂

  • @ryandeleon222
    @ryandeleon222 18 днів тому

    See I don't think 150 BP cut is going to help much. For companies refinancing it's going to be way higher than when they financed with rates 0 in 2020-2021. CRE values are way underwater and vacancies are worse than the GFC so prices won't go higher. Housing prices are at 126 year high adjusted for inflation, so those can't go higher, and the consumer is... toast. The Fed hikes lag and so do the cuts. The last hike from July 2023 will still affect the economy 18 months down the line, as will the FFR every month since then affect the economy 18 months in the future. There's much more, I'm not even being creative.

  • @Solis-u8r
    @Solis-u8r 21 день тому +10

    Thanks for your continuous update!!! I am super excited about how my stock investment is going so far , making over 28k weekly is an amazing gain.

    • @Lucia-f9j
      @Lucia-f9j 21 день тому

      I would really like to know how much work you put in to get to this point.

    • @Gill-m6v
      @Gill-m6v 21 день тому

      That's huge!! Been trying to trade on my own for a while now it isn't going well .few weeks ago I lost like $7000 in a particular trade . Can you please help me out or at least advise me on what to do?

    • @Meise-t5j
      @Meise-t5j 21 день тому

      I will always suggest Sarah Alinaza,💯💯 , she is extremely good on that.

    • @Natalie-y8t
      @Natalie-y8t 21 день тому

      She is really good in studying market and making a strategic and am learning so much from her

    • @Benjamin-o1t
      @Benjamin-o1t 21 день тому

      The internet is filled with so many useful information about my manager Sarah Alinaza.

  • @rocketman99
    @rocketman99 21 день тому

    There might be a consumer recession but this wont effect rhe fact that megacaps will massively increase capex for genAI as they are doing now most tech smh companies are sold out for 2025 too those earnings will come insane

  • @PCGamer77
    @PCGamer77 21 день тому

    22:59
    U.S. Total Capital Expenditures
    2010-2016: +47%
    2017-2023: +52%
    Home construction went up and other cap ex held steady. Housing demand went up. The counterfactual is home construction going up and other cap ex *going* *down*.
    I want to be reincarnated as an economic commentator. You can just be wrong about everything all the time.

  • @ampiciline
    @ampiciline 21 день тому +1

    YOUR GUEST = MR ANALOGY

  • @Ap_gmaing_yt
    @Ap_gmaing_yt 21 день тому

    I'm staying in XAI80K till after ETFs being approved and will move into alts after that...

  • @davidlanham99
    @davidlanham99 20 днів тому

    US inflation isn’t 3% or 3.5%, it’s 11% the way they used to count it, so I’m ignoring all of this and buying more gold and silver. Have fun everyone.

  • @sokratzmmf
    @sokratzmmf 21 день тому

    The problem is the easy times are over for the American empire. Now inflation is a major risk since the world will no longer subsidize American consumption at the same levels through the dollar’s world reserve currency status. The Fed has 2 options: let a recession cure inflation or give up and let stagflation take over. No easy solution for decades of American overconsumption.

  • @Steve-mc9rk
    @Steve-mc9rk 19 днів тому

    One important aspect of Trump returning to office would be the U.S. returning to energy independence. This would lower costs across many sectors.

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 16 днів тому

    He talks about Friedman but not about the money supply!

  • @veeruavamish8245
    @veeruavamish8245 19 днів тому +1

    Every market expert says...means it wont happen😀😀

  • @francoperrotta4968
    @francoperrotta4968 19 днів тому

    That mean it goin to run up more and more ..I don’t see any bearish stock anytime soon ..don’t listen to anyone juts watch the number ..number don’t lie people do

  • @thestreetPOD
    @thestreetPOD 3 дні тому

    nobody uses copper in construction anymore...wtf bro lol it's 2024 we use PEX piping....the guy making predictions but is completely out of this world...

  • @benjaminbai2192
    @benjaminbai2192 20 днів тому

    A somber warning of what the market could do. Clearly the guest does not understand AI. I bet he does not invest in Bitcoin.

  • @Scarborough-c26
    @Scarborough-c26 21 день тому +2

    I am at the beginning of my "investment journey" I plan to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice for stocks that can outperform the S&P500 this 2024?

    • @cortez9978
      @cortez9978 21 день тому +1

      the ones you dont buy

    • @RayWalker-mo
      @RayWalker-mo 21 день тому

      I’m not well vast with the conditions of the marketplace, the avenue flow of transactions, not equipped enough with information. My best guess as to what outperforms the S&P is BRK or perhaps NVDA

    • @Lindsay-jy
      @Lindsay-jy 21 день тому

      The issue is most folks have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not skilled enough during crash, apparently they get burnt. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 350%, since the covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.

    • @CaroLewis-j8k
      @CaroLewis-j8k 21 день тому

      @@Lindsay-jy truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @Lindsay-jy
      @Lindsay-jy 21 день тому

      Katherine Nance Dietz is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

  • @jaynawilliams8923
    @jaynawilliams8923 21 день тому

    And...In the meantime....price go up.

  • @lucanidae100
    @lucanidae100 21 день тому

    Dow Jones will hit 50,000 then comes the big crash. Food prices will go much higher as commoidity futures skyrocket and force all the prices up. Food prices are more like oil prices. Generalities with a hundred variables. 25%+ of consumers will have to stop spending. New comers will be spending more as they have never had it so good.

  • @yashrabarirajodaoffice
    @yashrabarirajodaoffice 21 день тому

    Good news XAI80K will be added to Binance 🚀🚀

  • @boglehead5822
    @boglehead5822 21 день тому +1

    Which stocks will cause this crash?? The S&P 500 has 500 stocks, its impossible to predict what it will do.

  • @gianfrancobergagna4024
    @gianfrancobergagna4024 21 день тому

    Nvidia is a factoryless and use industry like Intel tmsc to produce!

  • @dwaynediesel6079
    @dwaynediesel6079 21 день тому

    Goolsbe said they should cut soon. Jp Morgan just fired top guy for advice like this

  • @bobbray9666
    @bobbray9666 10 днів тому

    All these clowns claim the market is going to crash. Well it might but if you sit on the sidelines as the market doubles then gets cut by 50%, you lost a 50% gain.

  • @hemayadav5678
    @hemayadav5678 21 день тому

    Why is XAI80K doing so well? That is concerning to me.

  • @jimscherer8072
    @jimscherer8072 18 днів тому

    The Fourth Turning is Now.

  • @FranklinCheng
    @FranklinCheng 21 день тому +1

    do you only interview with permabear guest? cause the market is going up for a while

    • @and1play5
      @and1play5 21 день тому

      they make more money on bear content

  • @alantan79
    @alantan79 18 днів тому +1

    shorts are rekt again

  • @gianfrancobergagna4024
    @gianfrancobergagna4024 21 день тому

    Each time this guy comes out markets outperform 10/15% up😂

  • @0monroy
    @0monroy 21 день тому

    Tech stocks will plunder for at least 8 months. A correction of the current improvements with AI 86% failure in projects in the corporate world.

    • @Fearzero
      @Fearzero 21 день тому +2

      Nope. AI isn't like the dot com bubble at all. It has real world use case and will continue higher, particularly because the money printer must also go BRRR as deflation is a risk at this point.

    • @celcorsystems1890
      @celcorsystems1890 21 день тому

      @@Fearzero exactly, i have been using AI a lot for the past 1 year

    • @billadama
      @billadama 21 день тому +1

      @@Fearzero Yeah it was pretty disappointing when no one ended up using the internet.

  • @maxangeles6279
    @maxangeles6279 21 день тому

    so what american companies are still in china????????????????????? he's wrong about that fact.

  • @TomHawk640
    @TomHawk640 21 день тому

    Very interesting, transformation to “pessimism.”

  • @larrysmith2608
    @larrysmith2608 20 днів тому

    By Aug 2025. The floor by Oct 2024 is 46xx

  • @Fifamud2023
    @Fifamud2023 21 день тому +1

    no one wants to hear the truth; nothing keeps going up for ever

  • @PatamaGomutbutra
    @PatamaGomutbutra 21 день тому

    I do not care about stock. The face reality make me tight belt and reduce spending as much as I can.

    • @Mrtrancefreak50
      @Mrtrancefreak50 19 днів тому

      Dividends in the right stock keep up with inflation, do yourself a favor

  • @annihilationHaven
    @annihilationHaven 20 днів тому

    I think it will be imperative to almost completely isolate most people before they start using AI as a human friend replacement. To achieve that, I believe they are starting with their "new normal" strategy, and soon they will literally give everyone Chinese style shoebox housing with free connection to AI. Average incomes will be too low to afford anything, so city owned bikes and scooters will be rented out to everyone to enjoy their economic 15- min city. Now THAT is control.

  • @Mark-ez2vw
    @Mark-ez2vw 20 днів тому

    Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. Scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.

  • @amirfromisrael5662
    @amirfromisrael5662 21 день тому +3

    Great interview!

  • @dianamsw245
    @dianamsw245 21 день тому

    Time for shopping

  • @Bigredbulldog401
    @Bigredbulldog401 21 день тому +1

    Trump said multiple times he’s gonna negotiate better Trade agreements because we get tariffs That means he’s gonna try to work out a deal for free trade if not I want tariffs because other countries do the same to us

    • @originalfred66
      @originalfred66 21 день тому

      Fake news says Trump just wants to increase tariffs. You are right that the real story is that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get better trade deals, especially with China. The irony is that better trade deals would actually help China as well as the U.S. in the long term.

    • @ericsmoove2165
      @ericsmoove2165 21 день тому

      Tariffs is going raise interest rates. Trump had good economy because Obama. 4 yrs in office he made ecomomy bad because he didnt take covid serious 400k people die over his watch.

    • @CreativeBotSam
      @CreativeBotSam 21 день тому

      Tariffs increase the price that you the consumer pays for a product. They are actually a terrible policy.

    • @Bigredbulldog401
      @Bigredbulldog401 21 день тому

      @@CreativeBotSam guess u don’t know what a negotiation is? So you’re ok with them giving us tariffs but we shouldn’t? Idc if it is more I rather not put money in our enemies pockets either way

  • @adsf255
    @adsf255 21 день тому

    😂 you are going against the mega 6

  • @Fearzero
    @Fearzero 21 день тому +3

    Being early is still being wrong.

    • @billadama
      @billadama 21 день тому

      Only if your horizon is 3-6 months out. If you're willing to wait a few years it's a different story.

    • @RichardArthur-jh1ph
      @RichardArthur-jh1ph 21 день тому

      Being early is getting out the exit door before you're trampled. Avoiding the big loss is far better than missing the last 15-20% of the melt up.

    • @Fearzero
      @Fearzero 21 день тому

      @@RichardArthur-jh1ph Stop losses exist for a reason.