Something Has Changed With Elon Musk
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- Опубліковано 19 кві 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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#Tesla #elonmusk #twitter #tsla #TeslaNews #TeslaFSD #TeslaFSDBeta #teslastockanalysis #TeslaUpdate #investing #ElonMuskNews #teslanews #EV #FSD #investing - Наука та технологія
Check out Nico's channel at this link: www.youtube.com/@investingagainstthegrain7343
Honestly I think the camera issue if it's even an issue can either be solved by software like he said or you can have two cameras together in one unit to help with triangulation... our human nose helps us have a stationary common reference point for both of our eyes which helps us scale the size of everything around us... same thing can be set up in a micro camera array with two frontal facing cameras in one spot with a common reference point like a nose... these cameras could be dropping Replacements wouldn't take 10 minutes to install aftermarket
I think it's pretty obvious so sometimes the most best answer is extremely obvious in foresight and when someone presents a simple obvious answer it gets implemented and that's probably what happened here with that other camera they put in a system with basically a nose for a common reference point for both cameras just like our eyes... more importantly is not another camera but following the ways of Nature and how Nature has designed things to work...
Try driving with one eye for an extended period of time and you will start seeing skips in the positioning of the vehicles... Your brain has the ability to smooth this better than computer systems currently can. Without triangulation you have no depth perception and you cannot drive as good... the nose helps accurately map the size of objects and it is a common reference point it's quite simple... sometimes it's just a simple solution and you just had to face it
Congratulations! Being a parent is the best. The first few months are really rough though. You will be a great dad!
Farzad…..many bar owners would be willing to own that cab for a ride home for patrons! Small bars are hurting largely because they are easy targets for police.
Brilliant.
Offer to pick them up with FSD and return them home for free with a minimum prepaid bar tab.
@@lym3204 Happy days
Why would a bar owner volunteerely do that? IMO I don't think any bar owners would add that level of complexity to their business for no reason.
One Tesla? Gonna need more than one to transport people at closing time. And now that the bar owner has assumed that responsibility he opens himself up for liability if the robotaxi is not available and a patron that was drunk drives himself home and gets in an accident.
i don't think people are analyzing the camera placement correctly. what makes those turns dangerous is that, you can't see both directions at the same time. you constantly are turning your head back and forth. that delay in turning from left to right, and refocusing your eyes, then back again, doesn't exist for the cameras. even if the cameras have a slightly worse angle than a human, the fact that the car sees both ways at once, could make up for the difference.
FSD drove my skeptic friend/neighbor and I home after dropping off his Tundra for repair. He had no idea the car was driving us. Unprotected turns, pedestrians, bicycles, traffic. Short drive, but effectively passed the Turing test or something like it.
I have had the Cybertruck for about three weeks now. It is the best thing I have ever driven. Haven't driven an X but you can't get much better than the Cybertruck.
This has to be a joke. My BF has one and it's the biggest peice of useless vehicle ever. He loves it because he gets attention but even he admits it's crap.
I wish FSD had personalities. I personally don't like the driving style of FSD. Examples:
1.) There is a red light .3 miles away. FSD will maintain speed limit speeds until shortly before the light and then using real breaks to break. My preference is to coast to the red light using regenerative breaking and hope it turns green before.
2.) There are 2 consecutive red lights 0.2 miles distance apart. When the 1st light turns green, FSD will assertively accelerate and then break right away at the next light. I would slowly accelerate because there is no point in doing it faster.
That's just my preference. I tend to look further ahead. I feel like FSD drives with a much shorter window of attention - maybe more like the average US driver 😂 but more correct.
That's where different driver profiles would come in handy. I would put myself in the category of hypermiler.
brakes, to brake
But if the brakes break, how to brake without breaking something? 😊
@@rctezluh42069, I prefer using regenerative breaking to minimize the use of break pads. But that's just me.
I agree with all this Thalanor poster says is my experience . FSD is quite reliable and predictable in city driving because I think the speed of the car the computer can handle how to predict /see what other cars are doing . I have many more takeovers on highways at 70 mph mostly because it doesn’t foresee early enough where the car is from on off ramp or highway fork and if in an inner lane waits to the last minute to change lanes and if the outside lane is occupied by multiple cars it doesn’t slow down or speed up to get into the outside lane and misses the off ramp unless I take over in time to do what is needed.
thats why people say FSD drives like someone unfamiliar with the area who is still learning to drive. Sadly this will never change because they do not intend to ever use mapping. This means these cars will only ever work with what they can see from their cameras. they will never know how the traffic lights are going to work or if there are certain shortcuts when you have heavy traffic on the main road and so on. I think it is a great tool and robotaxis would be really cool, but personally I would still prefer to drive by myself in those areas.
In 2022, 13,524 people died in alcohol-impaired driving traffic deaths (USA). FSD sends that number to zero. Everyone should be behind Tesla. When I'm driving, I would feel so much more comfortable, if I knew the cars around me were FSD.
That doesn’t account for Under -The -Influence of Stress, SSRIs, Pharmaceuticals, Sleep Deprivation….
My anger?!😡👊🏾
All affect cognitive functions for human safety? 👀😬🧟♀️
FSD to be fully effective needs to be in every single vehicle on the road. It needs to be connected and aware of all other vehicles position and route. Once that happens there will be perfect driving, traffic jams will be a thing of the past, and at that point manual driving will most likely be illegal unless in an emergency situation.
Exactly.
@@mmmyeahh I could see a judge in the future "sentencing" a DUI offender to a self-driving Tesla.
@@Zman1080 Eventually this will be the goal
Was driving on busy 4 lane street in West LA yesterday. I looked up to my right and in one of the center lanes, in the middle of heavy traffic, was a car w no driver. I looked closer and it was a Waymo vehicle w the spinning gadgets on top and on all sides...otherwise, it was just driverless car blending in w heavy traffic in West LA...seems like this was a glimpse into the future…gives me a bit more faith in Elon
So Waymo and Hyundai already have robotaxis. Yes, lot of lidars/radars, but seems it works.
@@rastislavvarga9908 whats hyundai got to do with this?
@@natpainter8185 they have robotaxi as well, built based on ioniq 5.
Exactly, except with Elon/Tesla's FSD it will be able to go anywhere in the world, forget Waymo it could never map trails and off beat roads, this is the same dilemma that Hydrogen has the cost to implement is too expensive, it's like replacing every existing gas station with a Hydrogen station at the cost of 2.5 mil compared to Tesla's 250k this was 7-8 years ago, but I'm sure the spread in cost is still the same today in other words 10X more expensive than the cost of EV's and super chargers
Waymobenogo
Driving around town all day without a disengagement on FSD v12 is like having insider information
There's two pieces of investment advice which Warren Buffet is known for, one being about investing in companies with strong fundamentals and the other being "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". Looking at the current position tesla is in after considering those advices, i can't help but think of that one meme.. "it's free real state".
22:40 the moment a camera fails, the system still haves POV (persistence of vision) AKA it has a model of the last thing it has seen. It still has cameras. So it can (limited) still keep track of most objects in view. And initiate an emergency stop/pull to the side of the road.
Exactly. With all these kinds of arguments, we can go back to how humans deal with similar situations.
When I was a kid, a large stone hitting the front windscreen in cars could make them shatter in such a way that caused them to be impossible to see through, especially at night with rain. This happened to my dad on a busy 3-lane motorway in the outside lane at 70 mph, and after the initial shock and worry for the safety of his family, he simply put on the blinker, slowed down steadily and pulled over into gaps in the traffic until he was in the hard shoulder lane. He still had side visibility towards slower lanes and that's all he really needed.
This was basically a complete loss of forward visibility, and yet by slowing and making steady progress towards the slower lanes he was able to get to safety. We got a police escort for the few miles until the next off ramp, and to safe parking for the emergency windscreen replacement van to arrive.
Tesla cars have dual side vision and wide angle rear vision cameras, so ample backup visibility should the front cameras be obscured or fail.
@@nettlesoup still have rear camera, so even if there were cars immediately to the side car can judge gap in traffic to rear and move over accordingly. Solvable with a bit of digital brain power
I recommend everyone try renting or driving other EVs. My Tesla M3 was in an accident and bing repaired. I rented a Model Y loved it, Polestar2 (it was so-so ok) not great, Ford lightning (felt like an EV in fossil clothing - ok, not great). I appreciate self driving, helps me tremendously and makes driving much less laborious. FSD still needs to grow, pet peeve is the camera warnings at night. I appreciate it does not disengage. Wish there was more feedback when it will not engage. Tesla is 100s of miles ahead of competitors.
Tesla is billions of miles of data ahead.
@@cathyk9197 Agreed! I would bet they have Petabytes of compressed and optimized data.
Correct ✅
I rented a bolt and it was such a generic economy car.
I like the way this guest thinks. Not just about Tesla but about the World. You should put guest names in the description.
Yes. Who is this lol
Nick Gibbs.
This is the last year to get TSLA stock prices at these levels in my opinion. When the next wave of growth starts its going to be a tsunami.
You funny
Why are you here on YT telling everyone? You should work 24/7 to earn money to investment everything in Tesla stock.
If they all drove like my dad(80), I wouldn’t have any safety concerns. That being said, FSD will progressively get better and better, until we question whether humans should even drive at all.
when I google the amount of car deaths per day and remember all the people i knew that are gone from car accidents, i think the verdict has been out for a long long long time, this is the barrier that alot of people can't think past, humans suck at driving!! and if they don't suck at driving, others do!!!
Dream on. Why do youngsters find driving so frightening and beyond their capabilities?
The point that Chuck Cook brings up about the B pillar that it is still in the approximate same location as a normal car for the drivers eye. This is because of the cab forward design on every Tesla except model S. The entire cabin is literally about 8 inches further forward than a normal car. No one has pointed this out yet
The car sees like a bee. You cannot comprehend how it views the world.
Great conversation guys. Much appreciated. My 2 cents on FSD:Incredible. It does what I would have done 99% of the time today!
So much valuable info in this, very smart guest right there. Thanks FarDad (congrats on the coming baby)!
Voting no after all the work has been done would be morally repugnant.
Or don't buy twittwr and ruin his and teslas reputation... he's already worth billions😊😊
Has not ruined it. Has improved it
@@macaulay425 He bought Twitter for the massive data advantage. This is such an obvious reason. X needed unique huge dataset. Only place for this was Twitter as Google/search tapped out. Long term genius move.
"Morally repugnant" but also 'financially naive" if those truly invested believe a "No" vote won't be used as an opportunity to bomb the stock by those who want Tesla gone.
.
If you vote that way expecting a bounce to 400, you have a *HUGE* surprise coming.
.
No vote.
1) Immediate stock dump by those working both sides, short term trading.
.
2) "24 hour Gordon", with media outlets instructed to flood the FUD by their masters.
Etc, etc, etc.
.
*BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR*
@@macaulay425 "elon how dare you do something unrelated to tesla, years after a contract is completed, and not expect me to take this contract away from you because i dont like you anymore, due to mostly twitter and other things unrelated to tesla."
worm like mindset
I hope the stock crushes after earnings.. this is the last time I feel Tesla stock will be at this price 😁
Well…it’s going to crash…so
Why do you think it will go up?
in that case, here's hoping it crashes after you buy
That makes so much sense especially after the cybertruck launch and how more and more people are getting to know Musk.
Well... iirc, this would be the first time it happens. Previous ones seem to defy logic by going up on the rumors, then going down after the good news.
“She’s quite sizable now…” 😂 Dude, you’re going to pay for that one!!! Jajaja
That was hilarious, as was the reply.
Husbands! 😳🤨👊🏾💀
“We’re going to cut that out”
*proceeds not to and uploads anyways*
In the next video, that keyboard we see in the background will have been replaced by a couch.
@@eyesuckle Surprise. Surprise! 😁🧟♀️
Tesla is the best car company ever! No gas stations, No oil changes, No smog check, No corrupt dealership, No catalytic converter and as fast as a $550,000 Lamborghini…
@FrankGallagherr
Imo, Tesla is technology company that specialises in robotics. Cars are just platform for the technology.
🙂
Lots of good view points from Nick... and of course Farzad contributes "a bit" to the convo :) It is a pleasure to listen while cooking the dinner
Definitely agree that redundancy of cameras shouldn't be an issue. I put bike racks on my model y all the time obscuring probably 80% of the rear cameras view leaving a Patchwork quilt FSD does just fine it pieces together what it can see from all of the cameras and does what it can. I'm astonished at its tenacity
That's a compliment for FSD but what does it say about you? :-)
@@sohailhines I'm sorry I don't understand your question could you rephrase it please?:-)
@@coreycoddington8132 what I meant to say is why make it hard on the car or FSD intentionally?
I also believe FSD makes me a safer driver and More alert as I watch how our model Y navigates situations…. but then I’m 78 years old and much wiser than my younger self 😉how much More might it help young whipper-snappers!!🤔mind boggling!
The biggest TELL that robo-taxi is coming and it's real is Elon is no longer making promises.... instead he has gone into action mode.
The 2nd biggest indicator is Drew leaving. I don't think he would leave until he had finished the engineering on the gen3 vehicle and knows that Tesla now has the major engineering of all its current and future platforms done. The rest is just tweaks and incremental improvements along the way. He probably realized that he would no longer be making something new and would have to focus on things he finds less interesting.... so he resigned.
The other reason someone might leave is when your boss is getting bat shit insane... Elon has changed, and not for the better... And this is coming from a fan. We have to be realistic. Look at his actions recently. He's gone full conspiracy nut
@@gordon1201how has he gone insane
@@epigeneticnerd4244 A good example would be complaining about Australia & NZ requiring X to remove graphic footage of a stabbing & attempted murder in a church, days after a mass murderer stabbed 6 people to death, including a baby, in broad daylight in a public place
Best Tesla conversation I’ve heard in months! This was very high-quality stuff! Thank you!
This was a great conversation between you guys. Thoroughly enjoyed watching this. Thanks for the keeping things real and fresh.
Great video, great conversation 👍🏻
You guys touched so many interesting points!
Useful and enjoyable
Great conversation guys. Nick nailed the camera placement and redundancy discussion. Still listening to the rest … well done 👍🏼
Happy to hear farzad and wife have a kid on the way. We were exactly on the same schedule. Supposed to give birth in 2 weeks. Sadly we lost the baby...Passed away inside the womb. Cherish every happy moment 💔
Even if Tesla robotaxi offer FREE rides, I would still want to take my own car most of the time.
Fascinating discussion but sadly as a MY owner in the UK I fear that authorities outside of North America will stop FSD by burying it in burocracy!
If FSD system is done, no normal jurisdiction will block it, purely because of economic reasons. Sure, some will need more months, but no western democratic country will be more then couple months behind
@@gorazdefe9130 how do you know if it's "done". There will always be a threshold (visibility, weather, etc.) where it cannot operate as effectively. Same goes for its response to road conditions and situations. Everyone has a different way of measuring how effective any autonomous driving system is - FSD or otherwise. Regulators won't want to take the risk of approving a technology that carries the risk of casualties even if it's relatively small.
Today I witnessed a good example of how FSD would be safer than human drivers. On a roundabout, a driver on my left suddenly sped up and ran into the car in front of it. Looks like she pressed the accelerator pedal instead of a break. Half an hour later, on my way back from a store, they were still there on the island going through the steps. Bumping into a car in front is a very common occurrence. With FSD it would never happen
Update: I was thinking about it a little more: it happened to me 4 times, that I remember and I did it once in my early days as a driver. We are talking about 40 years of driving experience.
That would save a million lives a year. Smart on you.
My elderly professor drove and hit the curb and broke the car’s axle. If she was in a Tesla with FSD, the car would not have had that accident.
Hardware 3 is very powerful. It is only now that Tesla is fully using the NN chip in HDW3.
Aren't you mixing Hardware with software, and HW3 with HW4?
(4 is emulating 3)
@@rogerstarkey5390 nope. HW3 is a computer composed of an MPC, GPC and Tesla's own inference chip.
The old FSD V10 and V11 C+ AI software ran on the non-inference chip parts of HW3.
Now with V12 and above they will run entirely or a vast majority of it will run on the inference chip ( which is optimised) since it is a NN accelerator chip.
HW4 has a lot more 🐴 power and thus can emmulate HW3 to provide a stop gap in data quantity since HW4 uses high-res camers and maybe the AI model that uses this improved res video is not fully trained yet. So cars with HW4 are using the AI model trained using the HDW3 lower res cameras. Thus HDW4 cars habe to use their HDW4 computer in emulation mode since it has to pretend to be HDW3 computure to run the AI model developed for HDW3.
I hope the above is now clarified. 😊
Soon the AI model for HDW4 will be fully trained to be as good and then better than HDW3 since the video image is higher-res and thus the AI should be more accurate is estimating 3D space and also motion since resolution will be higher.
Also the hardware should be able to run bigger models and more models than HDW3 if needed. In my view it will be needed as FSD moves to L4 and L5.
HDW 5 maybe more of a power thing since with smaller procrss nodes there should be less power consumed for the same performance. Possible for more redundancy to meet posdible tough regulations since HDW5 will be on smaller process node (@3nm next gen TSMC process instead of their older 7nm which I think HDW4 is on )
I didn't think 2 hours of chatting would be this interesting, great job guys!
Great discussion guys, thank you.
Great convo.
Have to say, this format of casual, two friends talking was extremely enjoyable to watch. I watch most all anyway, but super fun.
FSD Level 5 should still be $99. So many people wont be able to afford $199, but $99 will be the mass market accepted price.
Always enjoy your posts Farzad and uptown speed om Tesla news. The race is on against BYD As they have state backing.
Not horribly relevant since they aren't coming to US
Being a Tesla fan feels so similar to being a Grateful Dead fan. It's this community of people who are really in to this very creative, innovative and unique thing, which somehow also has a touch of grace. For me, to experience and be a fan of two such interesting communities in one lifetime is very lucky.
To be honest. I hate to drive. You can imagine getting up at 5am, and sometimes coming home at midnight. Its really mental exhaustion. But i can also imagine the space you would save. All that parking space could be used to house a person or optimized for something else
My take is that Robotaxi and FSD are two different things. What will be unveiled Aug 8 is the next gen platform prototype. It will be a pure Robotaxi without pedals and a steering wheel, or a car that can become one.
FSD is on its own track. All current cars can become Robotaxis by default. By August given the rapid improvements it may be a done deal. In any case it will be substantially better than it already is.
I think you might have a surprise coming.
No FSD, no Robotaxi.
.
FSD is the "ROBO" control method.
Best explanations I’ve seen Nick make. 👍
Can’t thank you guys enough for your insights and commitment to the community. There is so much negativity out there. It’s good to be aware, but stay focused on the positive and the mission.
Thanks again🙂👍
Quality time, quality message. Thanks guys!!
We went into Tesla deep after autonomy day. Still holding for FSD and Optimus. FSD drives 95%+ of our miles. Yes, after FSD my driving habits are not adequate because I am used to just supervising. That is why I get Turo teslas on travel.
One of the best talks about FSD! My compliments to Farzad and Nick.
You can look at the photo and video predictive models and see how they have advanced exponentially to give some parallel to what we could expect with FSD.
I think that’s the most reassuring element.
As long as the data is stored with its integrity, the architecture can always be adjusted or changed.
Spot on! If people invest based on Elon's timeline they aren't long term investors.
very good conversation!
FSD makes my car more safe. It drives much better than I do. It pays attention to way more than i can. This is a huge break through for the world
Missing the point on A camera failure. The car can still drive, it is still operable. Ive had a camera become occluded. FSD will disengage and tell me to take over.
You nailed it! It is the consistency that’s going to matter. I had a best drive from Providence to Costco in Avon MA and then on to downtown Boston with a couple of interventions because my nerves than anything else.
A riveting conversation. I wish I could make time to watch it end to end.
With the aging population across the globe it makes sense for more older individuals to transition to a robotaxi and those that are disabled. There is always going to be a percentage of the population that wants to drive themselves just for the pleasure of driving. The everyday commuter would also benefit from robotaxis. The problem is regulators move at a snail's pace to approve new technology and once approved they set the bar so low for them to recall the technology if an incident occurs. So for many investors they believe in the robo fleet, but they doubt the speed of regulators to approve it or if they do they will drastically limit the abilities of the technology for "fear" of incidents.
there are half a dozen cities already running autonomous taxis
Great discussion.
For safety and redundancy there is ISO26262 which determines how critical each module in the car is and analyzes what level of redundancy each module should have.
I just paralized V12 yesterday. The navigation was going to turn left and I put on the right turn indicator to see if it would override the navigation. The car expressed its internal conflict by moving the car, left, right, left right into the intersection until I took control.
Great discussion, but Farzad is going to need to sleep on the couch for the next few nights. "Sizable"😂
Great podcast, thank you 🙏
Right the the backup camera needs to be in an identical position for this to work.
Simply love listening to you two talk for hours while coding 😁
😄Farzad, Good day from Lismore, NSW. 🌏
Regarding B pillar camera placement, I also wonder how much advantage its height on the pillar gives it. If it were moved to the front bumper, it would be approximately two feet lower.
My experience with 12 has been disappointing, my family gets annoyed when I use it because of the jerky movements, slams on the brakes for a yellow, accelerates too fast. Also its style is hard on the vehicle, uses the breaker too much and accelerates like crazy for no reason.
The doctor, not knowing the actual day of birth example was fabulous.
I am a little worried about current hardware 4 cameras, the vision is less human like as the dynamic range has been reduced, which does happen when pixel size goes down and pixel number goes up. Yes it can resolve higher quality image in good light, but not in poor light.
Camera placement is solved by car movement for parallax distance/speed calculations using the baseline between the camera positions.
I really liked this episode of the two of you exploring, experiment, with comments good bad. Just thinking out loud came through in the video and that why I watch. I want to see Tesla from every angle and I liked this episode, thanks guys!!
Redundancy? What happens when a human driver suffers a heart attack, falls asleep, gets drunk, blinded by oncoming traffic at night, and on and on? The chances of a Tesla AI coping with a camera failure is far greater to be successful than the human. If, for some reason a camera failure impedes the ability of FSD to pull over the car to the side of the road safely, it can still turn on emergency flashers and slow down safely to a stop. I've lived in So. California for over 50 years as an adult and seen so many vehicles stopped in the middle of the freeway for various reasons...including a couple out of the car screaming and yelling at each other. Who knows, maybe cars will become so intelligent and learn to engage in road rage that they'll stop and argue with other in the middle of the highway about human psychological aberrations.
I don't think you guy's have ever used FSD in places with lots of blind corners. You just aren't realistic about the current capabilities. Fazad you are from the North East.. .come home and try FSD here. Blind corners are the norm around Boston and 10-15 second turns are unacceptable. Stoping 10 feet before you can even see around the corner and then creeping creeping creeping...slowly...slowly...go no wait...no go..no wait.. OK it's OK lets go... That is simply NOT acceptable and it's the norm for me. I use FSD every single day.
Full stop the cars needs front bumper cameras when there are blind corners. I have had to intervene several times to avoid an accident and I rarely make even the shortest of drives without intervention. This is the Boston suburbs of Framingham MA.
This is my problem in LA suburbs.
Making an unprotected turn onto a road where oncoming traffic is curved away from vision, bc FSD is so hesitant, it gives time for speeding vehicles to come dangerously close to the Tesla by the time the car starts to turn onto the road.
Same with highway lane changes where it doesn't mark and avoid speeding cars behind you that will try to pass you, and you know it, but the car starts to lane change in front of a oncoming speeding car
I have the same experience in Boston
@@PizzaMan5000 "but the car starts to lane change in front of an oncoming speeding car" OMG. Good to know! Thanks.
Could you please provide the street names for the intersections of at least the two worst examples in your area you've discovered? I'd like to research this problem to see if it's worse than the two worst examples I can find in my local area.
Also the posted speed of traffic in the main road, and the actual speed most traffic flows at. Then I can run some maths to see how bad the issue is. Thanks.
Ditto for the Seattle
Area. I’d love to see natural language input or at least something better than “Auto pilot disconnected, what happened?” to get my model Y through the many new non critical navigation errors version 12.x has.
The slow creeping at stop signs is a NATSA over regulation problem that hopefully go
away in future updates. Overall version 12.4 is safer and much less robotic than 11.4.9-
but please bring back the better navigation the old version had!
Love the long form..worked well!
Farzad, thanks for the discussion. I think you forgot the fail-safe condition.. The reason FSD could drive with only the front camera, because the car reverts to base Auto Pilot. Only the point of camera placement...I look at the dash/center screen and note what the car sees, and how far away. I don't understand how, but realize the car can see more than I can, with FSD V12.3.4 it sees more than I.
Anyone know the state of the Tesla insurance rollout?
Will Robo Taxi rollout be faster or slower?
Insurance is mature v. RT new
Insurance is at the state level v. RT city by city
Insurance does not get slowed by local push back v. RT will face pushback. Plymouth UK, I visited, does not allow Uber.
Will a robotaxi be able to take you long distances instead of driving your own vehicle? For example from Houston to Dallas. Will the ride cost less that the cost per mile of driving your personal vehicle. If it can do that, then we would be using robotaxis for everything.
Nico is spot-on in his assessments. Right thinking. A world full of couch quarterbacks who have never driven a Tesla. Great conversation.
FSD needs a front bumper tri-camera for difficult corners and pothole/debris avoidance.
I've tried the no side camera scenario unintentionally. I've lost my right mirror on the highway, and my Tesla only has HW1.0.
There are a few tricks that can be used:
- If you overtake someone on the right, you know it's safe to change lane for a few seconds.
- At night you can see the headlights far ahead of the car
- If you just drive as fast as the fastest drivers, there's little chance that anyone would catch up from the right.
- Put on your blinkers and start inching over, and listen to honks. Most likely other drivers will solve the situation out of self-preservation.
That said, the chance of a modern camera failing is close zero. Especially when it's designed for this use case specifically. By far the most likely failures will be mechanical.
Blind spots on unprotected lefts can be easily avoided by turning the car slightly left to aim the blindspot between the opposite road and right road to gain full visibility of moving traffic.
FSD is definitely a better driver than me in San Francisco.
Are you masculine?
@@James-hd4ms lemme check...
Can it drive the car unsupervised? I assume that you can :) If so, not sure if it's better just yet.
@@sohailhines I'm so distracted driving in that town that disaster is always moments away. I routinely end up in lanes reserved for muni or needing to quickly swerve back across many lanes because I'm about to get forced into an exit. I think FSD would fare better unsupervised.
Love the commentary and sharing of informed opinions. I will add most humans love to believe they can get precise estimates for software projects, having worked in the software industry for over 25-years, it never cease to amaze me, that most don't understand that complex projects, particularly ones that are one of a kind, what Tesla is solving with FSD, nobody can ping and exact date for the initial release. However, as mentioned in the video the pattern is that progress in AI is made in large jumps, which are hard to predict when they come (how many predicted ChatGPT, AlexNet, Alpha Go ?); the only ones that probably knew it was coming were the ones close to it. The best way to judge progress is as alluded in the video, drive for yourself a Tesla, and make your own determination of how fast the changes are evolving towards the goal, and make your own estimate of completion based on how fast it is evolving. Sure, there is the regulatory side, which I find way more un-predictable, only referring to the technology end.
In upstate NY we have a highway overpass that shuts down your FSD computer and forces a reboot. It’s a catastrophic failure of FSD and would a horrible situation for an unsupervised version. My confidence is medium at best until this is resolved.
17:20 - it can’t see far down to the left or right because of the camera placement and resolution.
It’s essentially driving blind in these cases which is the concern.
Ty for your discussion. Yes, it helps to add information, for 🇺🇸 to make wise decisions! 😊
If multiple cameras go out there are options. A rider could vocally tell the vehicle when it's safe to change lanes and/or an on screen steering controller could appear in emergency situations; think standard phone racing controls. Other vehicles could eventually assist by communicating through a service or directly.
I live in San Francisco I swear I think I just saw a Tesla driving all by itself on the road today. I was at a red light and it drove by me with no one in the car.
Sam Francisco is weird tho because I saw a double parked van and a dog was driving. 😂
Literally double-parked but dog all hands on the wheel…😂
SF is the place to see such tests…. 🎬🧠🧟♀️
FSD 13.0 no doubt :)
one of my favorite farzad pods
Appreciate your point about camera redundancy, but really how many cameras fail. Also don't underestimate the occupancy network for filling in the gaps.
A lot of meat drivers loose an eyeball.
@@James-hd4ms Not really.
@@chimp3376 I think it’s like at least 10%.
The car knows where all the cars around it are for some distance. If a side camera should fail we know if there was a car(s) there. We can manage w/o that camera by keeping track of cars entering and leaving the blind area. Long enough to pull over. Maybe you pull off on the shoulder on the side where the camera has not failed. Don't post about having a camera out on a six lane freeway because one would have to test if this works over multiple lanes. I like the idea of replacing the camera with a 2 camera module. But his could be trained for (or coded) as a backup.
FSD is an amazing advance for sure. For the most part it is super safe. But, it is not ready for Houston traffic if you care about not pissing other drivers off or continuously getting cut off in traffic. And speaking of your comment about respecting the law, FSD 12 stays in the left lane on highways and freeways too much which is illegal in some states. There is still a ways to go to be a robotaxi for sure.
Fsd definitely makes me a better and more alert driver. It's like having a child and making sure they are doing everything right.
We excuse the weatherman on a regular basis because he has to rely on so many variables for predictions. Tesla is in new territory.
Why cant i chart the route myself tesla keeps taking hard to drive routes.
My experience is that Tesla's routes are much more efficient than when i choose one bcause i know the area. I was always wrong.
When you say "hard to drive" what do you mean by that? Is it not as fast or less "fuel" efficient? What is more efficient about your preferred route?
There are routes that avoid busy intersections and left turns which, depending on timing and traffic conditions, can add a couple of minutes. In my commute, the last mile can be routed using a smaller street next to the main boulevard to save about 1-2 minutes. But, FSD insists on using the main boulevard that takes me to a very busy intersection with bus stops and pedestrians, then after the right turn, I have to make a left turn on another busy Boulevard which, in the morning, is congested and makes turning left both challenging and time consuming. I always have to disengage early to get the car to the smaller street, then turn FSD back on so it will re-route based on my intervention.
@@steelcommoditiesjust enter the small street as your destination, when you get there enter your next destination. Might take 30 seconds to enter.
@@paulmcgreevy3011 Yes, I can do that, but the OP was hoping that we could just input our choice of route from the beginning rather than come up with a work-around.
"I can drive with one eye". 😂😂
He can also view his rear and side mirrors with one eye and swivel his head. A fixed camera can’t, his comment was idiotic.
My experience with the FSD trial and my '22 Model 3 LR has not made me think it will be ready for robotaxi duty anytime soon, certainly not this year.
*Florida Man **_vs._** Electric Jellyfish!*
FSD 12.x is great, and for sure is a vast improvement over 11 and it will continue to improve at a rapid pace, but the world is still not ready for autonomy. Most people are fearful or at best skeptical and it will take several years at least for that to soften, along with a s*** ton of data showing that not only is it safer than the average driver but it's safer than the 99th percentile driver. Or even better than that.
Even then it will take a long time for the skepticism and cynicism to say nothing of the kind of antipathy that Elon has inspired to abate in order for it to gain widespread acceptance as the autonomous driving standard. Not sure that people see that the obstacles include more than the technological and computational challenges of autonomy but also a massive change in public consciousness. Then it will become a disruptor.
But the fact that a whole lot of techies and Tesla fans like it and have high regard for it is not an indication that it's ready for prime time either from a technological or performance standpoint or from a public acceptance and Regulatory standpoint.
And of course millions of people can drive.