Aggressively Neutral | TCAF 147
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- Опубліковано 4 лип 2024
- On episode 147 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss: small cap stocks, Nvidia's valuation, waning short interest, potential upside surprises, mortgage rates, and much more!
This episode is brought to you by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Learn more about Goldman Sachs Asset Management Premium Income ETFs at: www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/...
More from Lori:
/ lori-calvasina
►00:00 - Cold Open
►04:42 - Intro
►05:36 - Lori's Research
►10:36 - What's in your toolbox?
►16:01 - The Biggest Story of this Year
►22:01 - Outperformance and Higher Highs
►30:39 - Heavyweight Champions
►38:02 - Small Caps
►54:35 - Aggressively Neutral?
►01:02:11 - iPhone Ownership
►01:03:09 - Upside Surprises
►01:04:17 - Mortgage Rates
►01:06:48 - The Fisher Investments Deal and RIA's
►01:11:21 - Favorites
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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This episode is brought to you by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Learn more about Goldman Sachs Asset Management Premium Income ETFs at: www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/advisors/resources/investment-ideas/etfs-goldman-sachs.html?sc_cid=global~ppdast~thecmpnd~etf~etf~pdcast~nasdaq-0621~na&ls=paid-podcast&
BKLC and BKAG are BNY Mellon ETFs with zero expense ratio.
Decades ago, I used to watch Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. In my late 20s, I knew nothing about markets and investing. Today, I'm a bit more experienced and know something of value when I see it. The Compound And Friends is an excellent value to me and is my go-to Friday night financial show. Bravo, Josh and Michael. I feel more informed and mildly entertained every episode. Keep making me money!
,
Thank you! - JB
My Dad did not miss Louis Rukeyser WSW when I was in grade school. Love the reference and comparison to TCAF!
Shout-out to Uncle Lou! Liz Ann Sonders was on his show too I recall.
WSW with Louis me too without fail….
@@russellmaniamusic Why hasn't one of the financial channels copied the format of WSW with Uncle Lou? He was such a low-keyed guy.
Excellent episode as usual. Lori was great. For some reason I’m always surprised at how smart and interesting the guests are on the Compound. It just opens up a whole new world of people to listen to and follow. The breadth of people, topics, etc. is pretty amazing. I mentioned a couple of names last comment regarding truth tellers and quality people. Too many to name all but Ives, Belski and Dutta are way up there. Great entertainment value as well!
This was fire. I always pay attention when Lori is on CNBC, but wow this longer format provided her room to breathe and expand on her analysis. Definitely have her back, would love to hear her mid- and new year thoughts.
TCAF Fri yay! Always love hearing from people in the trenches.
Thanks for watching, Jeff!
Man compared to this crew I’m riding a tricycle with streamers. They’re running the goddamned Tour de France.
Another great episode. I am based in Europe. Having a career here and now a happy pensioner, I was not at all interested in the stock markets. My father passed late 2018, leaving 3 stock portfolios. The estate took time to divide up. I ended up with my share March 2020. So, as you have pointed out, Covid time made the stock market a major pass time. You and your Compound team have turned me into a somewhat savvy investor. (One of the first things I did was sell Cisco as soon as I was using Zoom like everyone else...) As my husband is very numerate, he has caught the bug also and has used his relatively small SS for options trading which is has done very well with. While I combined 2 accounts into one at MS to keep for my son and follow mainly their advice. Meanwhile I keep the Vanguard for myself and self manage. I has been great and I owe a lot to you all and always give you a thumbs up.
Thank you Josh for these great videos and interviews. Can you invite Dan Nathan from Risk Reversal and hold him accountable to his 10 year bearish views 😂
Fabulous conversation so much to think about here
god damn lori is the single best analyst on the street, maybe the only
Anyone who has the iPhone 13 mini is holding on for dear life
I miss the smaller iPhones
FanTASTIC detailed conversation!!! Awesome! Much Thanks, all.
Lori was fantastic. I know there are extremely smart and passionate and talented people across the many investment firms but it’s still slightly surprising to me how many there are and how you all get them on the show to do what they do best - shine with their knowledge. Loved this episode. Keep more like it coming.
I totally agree about using trailing PE. Forecast earnings are incredibly inaccurate and trailing shows what they’ve actually done, which is more aligned with what they will do-*especially* for higher quality companies with a track record for success.
this is nothing novel..... look up cape ratio. well known and it's like the one of the oldest methodologies (graham, shiller, buffett etc).
but it only explains like 45% of future movements with a 5-10 year delay so...... not meant for yearly targets like this lmao..
She’s like a songwriter who became an artist. Top of class!!
Amazing episode, must listen/watch twice.
Instead of getting a new iPhone just replaced the battery. $80 vs $1200.
The younger woman on Hacks is Hanna Einbinder and she also has a standup special on HBO/MAX "Everything must go!"
Thank you for these look under the hood of the real market drive …i mean again level up the bar…RBC strategist….now Josh listen….fucking good stuff…best show ever …THE COMPOuND unmatch quality content ! Thank you for your work
Great episode.
The Croquet Balls Collectible Index is up 15% in the last week, no doubt in response to Nicole's placement on the conference table.
That was an awesome show and I leaned a lot, thanks!
Awesome show. Would love to see how many passive investors are there today compared to 10-20-30 years ago? With 401k and other retirement assets, I’d imagine all the employed people who saw their wages grow just dumping all their excess income into them.
Lori is very smart, great show
These guys really hit on something very key in rationalizing a generally higher P/E amongst large caps although attribution of it to "smarter management" hmmmm, maybe but more critical are the orders of magnitude of improvements in systematic business controls that have been implemented by both regulation (like Dodd Frank) as well as much more internal rigor that is enabled by having operational data easily accessible by the complete overhaul of enterprise and operations IT enabled by innovation and investment since the late 1990's.
Best unnecessarily long sentence ever. ; )
great podcasrt as always
Imagine the income Ken Fisher could get if he buys an annuity with his $7 billion😀.
I remember Ken in the third grade, sitting in the back of class, smoking and reading Mad magazine. I'm glad he proved the teaches wrong who said he was a loser.
This episode felt like a lot of talk without saying very much? But it's probably b/c there's not much to say in such an aggressively mid economic/market environment. Maybe we're just in a slow, boring drift up. All-in UPRO and TQQQ just to feel something.
Love this 🔥
The problem with Josh's argument against small caps is the premium is in small cap value, not small cap growth. The premium is in valuation errors on companies and which companies are value changes frequently. The premium has never been in the best company is because you can't reliably pick them, So if you buy a basket you get let down and actually there is no premium.
You can see that here with how the Russell 2000 is being beaten by the s&p 600, but AVUV Which is small cap value is crushing both of them.
$13 billion RIA CEO would be an interesting guest. His books are interesting, too (Fisher's).
57:30 LOL Analysts shouldn’t forget that there’s actual work being done in these companies.
The ability to execute through all these uncertainties is why some companies exists and some don’t.
I said Spencer's, too, Duncan
Michael Lokey always have a nice watch on.
I love great wolf. Going next week. While working.. sort of lol
Re: Bridgerton. I believe this is what Michael was thinking. Corset-an old timey undergarment you wear to make you look thin. Sonnet -a particular poem structure like Shakespeare has used.
Party On my Friends! 🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️
🥳
Doing My best!!
@@KL-sm4bm yea buddy! 🥳
Woo-hoo
Can you guys also do 3 stock picks from each host and guest
Dig the technicals and personal. Gets at, "... How i simulate/understand the market."
Lori is the BEST!
46:30 peak Batnick right there....
And then the stare down right after 💀💀💀
I don’t mind a lil more vol , so I just buy the nasdaq
Used to work at Fisher….it sucks 😂
Absolutely ratio charts delineating between sectors than equities..
Is Josh serious about the Crockett balls? Are they really from the set of Curb?
Great show as usual, and Laurie was awesome.
So her tool is just using CAPE ratio to predict the future. This is indeed the best predictor of future returns but hardly novel and only useful for longer terms like the next 5-10 years...
According to Copilot:
Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, has made several predictions about the S&P 500 in the past. Here are some of her notable predictions and the actual S&P 500 closing prices:
In 2024, Lori Calvasina predicted that the S&P 500 would rally to 5,000 points. However, the S&P 500 closed at 5,487.03 on June 18, 2024.
In 2023, she predicted that the S&P 500 would rally and reach 5,000 points. The S&P 500 closed at 4,769.83 at the end of 2023.
Turn off the lights and talk to me about PE ratios 😍
Don’t front run small caps…. Good advice 🤔
She is no 1❤
Would loooooovvveee a segment on cybersecurity...with AI could people be underestimating the impacts of the dark world....Could this be the major pushback for major consumer adoption?
Lori is one of the few macro people I pay attention to because she doesn't come across as everything is always bad all of the time.
I think Michael is talking about Lush
great interview!
Great show!
The store in the mall is called Brookstone....& it is all ridiculousness...over priced ridiculousness. Anyway, great interview today.... absolutely resonate with the data-driven analysis of the market's condition.
SHOUT OUT TO AMERICAN DREAM MALL
AI is a 2030s story. Still so much that needs to be figured out.
Loris CisTHE BEST love her in BloombergCNBC.... intellectual and modest melding... it SELLS to highly credentialed folks like myself;
Was this in English? 🤣 this is why I just buy VOO
VOO is what most people who try to actively manage their own portfolio should buy and fuggeddabouddit.
Can't go wrong just buying the haystack.
If you don’t have any genius plan in mind, that’s exactly the right thing to do. (And even then, it might still be a good choice.)
I feel this. This was above my pay grade also lol
99% of traders would be better off just buying VOO! We trade for the love of the game! 😂
Lori is the best!
She's is a pros pro!
Josh keeps trying to bait her into saying NVDA is too expensive. 😂
Bro she said she couldn't talk about individual stocks and they proceed to probe her about her NVDA outlook every few mins 😂
Can she beat sp500 in the long run ?
There was a joke their but out of respect I will not post it. I must be getting old
First
❤
Does she beat the market?
She helps others try and beat the mkt lol
Great title
Croquet balls again. Batnick as Donny from Big Lebowski. Can we rotate Callie Cox in here every second week and see what folks think.
Small caps need big growth and lower rates. Not going to happen.
😄😄
last
fortuitous, not gratuitous
Pier1 lol
To the host with the white short: please STOP completing the guest's sentsnces! Let her talk!
Michael deservervs a clown of bravery award for recommending the new dragon series season 2. wow, what a stinker!
I hate when they bring on strategist and they can’t talk about stocks. Gentlemen, this is a show about stocks, we want predictions on stocks.
Regulations (gov’t) prevent them.
I know enough to know I can’t claim to know anything.