July 9, 2024 | Driving It Home with ABoR's Housing Economist

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert delve into the upcoming June housing statistics. They highlight a significant expected decline in home sales by 15-20% year-over-year, while median sales prices have remained relatively stable, only dropping about 5%. This discrepancy raises questions about whether this sales drop is an anomaly or a trend for the rest of the year, especially given the increased interest rates and their impact on buying power.
Dr. Knapp explains that despite more consistent mortgage rates in 2024, there was a noticeable rise in April from 6.8% to 7.2%, which deterred some buyers. This has resulted in an unusual market situation where sales are down, but prices are not falling significantly. One contributing factor is that more inventory is available, with listings increasing by 30-40% year-over-year, yet demand is lower due to higher mortgage rates. The inventory that does sell is highly desirable, indicating that buyers are becoming more selective.
The conversation also touches on sellers' motivations, particularly those with low-interest mortgages from previous years, who may be less inclined to sell. Additionally, the market is seeing an increase in leases as an alternative to buying, driven by affordability issues and sellers who prefer to lease their properties rather than reduce their asking prices. This trend is particularly evident in central and south Austin, where leases are becoming a more common option for would-be buyers. The discussion underscores the current disconnect between buyers' and sellers' expectations and the evolving dynamics of the housing market in Austin.
Download an episode transcript here: www.abor.com/content/uploads/...
Links Mentioned:
June 2024 Housing Market Report - Coming Soon! www.abor.com/marketstatistics
Market Data Lab - July 23 - www.abor.com/class/market-dat...
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