Population decline accelerates in China, worsening outlook for economic growth
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- Опубліковано 16 січ 2024
- More cracks are emerging in the path to recovery for China's economy, as it logs one of its slowest growth rates in more than three decades. Asia's largest economy also saw another year of population decline, despite government efforts to boost a flagging birth rate and stave off a demographic crisis. Low Minmin reports from Shanghai.
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5.2% growth despite all that...i wonder how the CCP manipulated the numbers to get that figure
Dude if they said %20 growth, would you believe that too?
Been to shanghai early this year. Airport was quiet. Only a few stores open. This doesnt look like a 5% GDP growth economy
CCP can put 5.2% or 10% for all they want. The actual on the ground feel tells me it is more negative growth.
*-5.2%
this year just began
With population of 1.4B decline by 10% still having a substantial number.
So 10% less workers to care for 10% more elderly
They don't have 1.4B. Japan is saying that they may not even have 900 million. And their decline will accelerate at an unprecedented rate because there aren't many women.
See that's the problem, you only think about the size of the population, not the demographic percentages of the population. If this trend of decline in birth rate continues, China will soon have hundreds of millions of retired old people with a lot less young workers to pay for their pensions and the inevitable decline of their economy due to such a small percentage of young people supporting a huge population.
Never put all the apples in one basket. We all have awake 😅
This is the job of the population policy officials.
Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment is falling over 90% compared to 2018.
- Foreign visitors are down 94% compared to 2019.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?
yea.... from a hat.. with a white rabbit.. well, where else..😇
There were 2 Chinese leaders that have done good for the development of China, Deng Xiaoping and the later Hu Jintao. In his first few years Xi had greatly benefitted from their policies. But now he on his own, and the results are clear to me. Aggressive foreign policies, pushing more and more important trade partners out, territorial conflicts with 17 nations in Asia, the wrong allies ... and what's more? What do people expect from this to happen?
You implement your stuff, it takes years to come into full effect. This is how politics work. Chinese people like Xi Jinping. They think he's one of the greatest leaders. The truth is he's bogging China down. After Xi it will take a long time to recover China.
@@krollpeter Xi did good job to eliminate the extreme poverty and dramatically reduce the corruption at all levels of government so that Chinese people love him. Chinese economy is transitioning from low tech to high tech development so that Chinese government is deliberately slow down the economy. In FDI area, China is also deliberately push out foreign investment because there are not many areas China is not leading anymore. China may want more bio-tech and chip investment, other than that, I don't think China want other FDI projects.
I just came back from china after a 3 months trip. When to guangzhou , foshan , Sichuan and shanghai hk and macau and never notice any negative affect as the west been saying. Western media keeps saying china going down down down, but in reality china is going up up up.
There are a lot of misconception about china and for people to think China will just collapse in simply naive. Our world can not afford china or US or any superpower to collapse.
BBC said 6 million people were affected by housing crisis, but that is not even 0.5% population. 99.5% wouldn't notice a thing. 6 million people is still a lot, and I hope CCP is going to help them out, but for the young people that couldn't afford a house this might be their chance. Honestly, housing price in guangzhou is still expensive after the crash.
More and more countries are using yuan. So these countries will have to sell USD or their own currency to buy Yuan. The more money russia/saudi/ asean use yuan, the more money china can print.
Even with china declining population, they still have over a billion people. More than US, the whole Europe, asean. Even if china population cuts in half , they still have over 500 million . More than any other country other than india.
Don't worry about china, worry about yourself
Well, for starters, the property sector isn't "crashing" and has been back to profitability for months. Notice how no news says anything other than it being in "trouble"...whatever that means. Foreign investment, exports, and visitors is a factor of the global economy doing horribly everywhere, and China cannot control that. Youth unemployment was calculated to be much higher than the same calculations done in other countries (i.e. Japan, where Youth Employment takes 15 to 34 years olds and lumps them all together, creating an artificially higher figure). China has growth from increasing trade with BRICS+ nations, BRI nations, and increasing urbanization of its rural population as they migrate into cities.
*China🇨🇳 have border/maritime disputes with Taiwan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines.*
make border/maritime agreement & peace.
They also have 1.4 billion disputes within their own boarder.
Don't worry about the reports by.....
more interested in US UK and european countries growth rates.
Shouldn't GDP calculation base on a fix formula? If it calculation can exclude the negative element it value will be always up ... even it econ drop ... if happen in business we call it scam. Right?
China growth concerns
yes, they are concerned because it is too high at 5.2%, they want China to grow slower
All figures quoted by the #ccp on #china are false and fudged. The #chinese economy is doomed under the #communist party
😂😂
Population is an interesting issue but a lot of economists have simplified it. First of all increased young population can be an asset, and can also be a liability if it is not productive. We should also not look at the population issue with a pair of historic eyes. Technologies have enhanced productivity. Imagine how much labour have been deployed in driving vehicles, if we can release that using autonomous driving, the volume of labour available for other productive work is tremendous. This is only the tip of iceberg, AI, automation will have great impact in the world of work!
Population reduction can be the most viable green initiative and source of individual wealth yes.
A.I automation has been around for a long time e.g auto pilot in air crafts, so don’t we see pilots getting laid off
The population of the world is seen in capitalist's eyes-- the people are commodities.
A.I does not pay income tax
You are rationalizing. No developing country has ever achieved developed status with a rapidly aging population. Fact. By 2050 the mean age will be 50 years in China. China is in decline and will not be able to challenge the West for global leadership.
Reality hits..😊😊
The future is blur for china..😅😂
5.2% growth, future is blur. Ya. She does not hv US dollars hegemony to robe the world
@stormtrooper2170 Jokers living in dreamland indeed. Hahaha....
If the population of China is lessen,its because of the migration of better off who in my opinion is to live a peaceful and harmonious life.
With 20% unemployment for college grads. Laying Flat with no kids is the best choice.
We are in a bit of bother, let's focus on China's problems so our people in Singapore feel better.
Right!
Indeed it does make us feel better that you are incapable of taking over Taiwan 😂😂
Let's talk about Singapore's problems all day and disregard the rest of the world 😂
Oh yeah Singapore the isolated hermit kingdom with 0 trade relations and $0 food imports from china.
Let’s ignore the massive time bomb up north 🤡🤡🤡🤡.
u go watch weixin, they i mean the chinese 100% focus on overseas problems.
It's okay. Can raise GDP per Capita in china
1. Worsening outlook for 5% China but very positive outlook for 2% US or even minus 2% Germany. CNA pro angmoh ah ? Speaking English and shouting democracy suddenly sets CNA in a trance ?
2. In the 60s and 70s, population was a factor for economic growth. Not the case in 2024.
1. China has not transitioned to a service based economy. 5% growth for a production based economy is mediocre. Service based economy usually hovers around 2-3% on a good year. Also, China is known for lying about economic numbers.
2. The working population is still a factor in 2024. Labor force translates to productivity and consumption.
Thanks god make the no.2 economy the no.20 economy
Population decrease for China is a good thing. 1.4billion is too much !!!
I wants china to be 0000000000million dollar economy
No concern for worry. China is not like the red dot.
Ya trying to tell the peasants importation of FT is good and locals should adjust to accommodate them
Someone started this story and now it is in all the media? Why are they all so worried? Or, have they nothing better to report.
China has more than 14 Tri population in the world, second .
Why you complaining about China birth rate.
That's very stupid about birth rate.
😢 Ukraine got the negative pop grown 😢😢
Actually anyone with basic knowledge , knew that you can't compare Apple to Orange.
U$A and China GDP measurements are opposite for the majority data.
U$A = Finance service/Banks/Wx11$treet (virtual)
China = Factory /manufacturing (Physical) .
Look at the US trade balance with China in 2023 as a guide.
Results should be out withn the next few months.
Don't you think it's contradictory? On the one hand, high unemployment rates affect the economy; on the other hand, low birth rates affect the economy.
On January 12, 2024, China announced that its total export value in 2023 would be 41.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Among them, exports were 23.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; imports were 17.99 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%.
Cna tells u what the govt wants them to, pls welcome more FT😂
Cina problem is better thab Singapura problem.brith rate
Bury the statistics and its purveyors.
Frightening rumours by Siong.
Please, China has 1.4 billion people!
Now it has dropped below 1.4 billion it's now 1.3 billion in 2024. Still second largest for next 20 years until Nigeria surpass China
Good joke😂
And dropping steadily for the next 50 years lol
US trolls to come out in droves here screaming & shrieking China is collapsing 😂
Same applies to CCP trolls 😂
@@Kilimanjaro5896 oops I'm so wrong after checking the comments here no US trolls screaming China is collapsing, these shameless trolls can feel shameful ones meh strange specie 🤣
Not really . This means you are assuming in future the economy and labour needs will be the same in the age of AI, robotics, IT , Internet etc.
In fact in future, there is no need for a great deal of normal manual labour.
Productivity per capita will be multiple times more than present.
In fact it will be a blessing with less population .
India in fact will be facing disasters as its economy in decades ahead will still be very labour intensive where such jobs disappears.
It is very good that China's population decreases otherwise there will be massive unemployment.
If only you know the impact of AI ...
Yea, but AI can’t but buy a house, go to a doctor, watch Netflix etc, you’re only focused on labor but ignoring consumption, without demand for products and services, then AI will also be useless 😂
@@wamnicho you don't comprehend the number of jobs lost from this labour part alone.
No one is saying AI will take over everything.
Just the loss of the obvious jobs where even doctors can be redundant not to say call centres, programmers , office workers etc.
Sure AI cannot cut wood for fire ... but the above alone will be more than enough to destroy the country.
@@hkfoo3333 How can programmers become redundant as a result of AI, without programmers and scientists, you can’t create and maintain AI systems, as a matter of fact, programmers will be in higher demand
@@wamnicho Do you know that AI eg. ChatGpt right can write very good programs without programmers?
Go check it out.
Yes. it already can write lots of good programs much better than even programmers.
Little Singapore is worried for 1.4 bn China?
China's population is declining, but it will stabilize eventually.
The outcome will be very different for little Singapore.
Ha ha ha!
No, it won't stabilize, troll. In fact, no Asian country has been able reduce declining fertility rates. Same in Western countries.
Why have more population when everyone fighting foe everything worst it will create more social issues, even if animals are not taken care of not to mention human that need education work n many many things to get things going,
Things happen for a reason. It may good.
Prehaps in time it will be proven correct.
1) Lesser job available for people.
2) Having children doesn't gurantee investment return.
3) Children are born with a lot defects physically or mentally.
4) More people rather keep animals. Cheaper to maintain.
5) Decline in traditional value and ethical value.
6) Resources reduced.
7) Environment threat and diaster increased.
No worries let nature take its course don't interfere into citizen bed affair.
By the time come the current political leaders were be dead who is going to answer you for promised dream.
Take one step at a time, just be happy for today.
But don't do things that affect your tommorow.
Be at peace always.
Typical report from CNN. I mean er CNA.
The chinese is migrating to australia, singapore, malaysia, uk, and they are shouting usa usa usa........ not population declining just migrating to usa
Migration is normal. The super rich wanted to spread it risk and the poorer one wanted more money that’s is the most common reasons of migration. Of course there are those need to get out with their paper money before it turn into digital currency. My friend migrated to Australia although he didn’t say much but I knew he had regretted it because every month he flew back to China. Many of my friends who have migrated to overseas purely for economical reason or wanted to owned a big house with garden costing a fraction of what it cost back in China told me they will return to fight for China if China is attack.
Perhaps, China’s ‘One Child Policy’ saved the world from a far greater tragedy. Just imagine, had not Deng Shio Ping had not come out with the ‘One Child Policy’ Chinese population would have increased exponentially to unbearable levels. It would have at this point reached about 2.5 billion. Obviously, China cannot support such a cohort of raw humanity. In such a situation the food problem would have become acute, where to find land for such a big population in China where most of the land is unsuitable for human habitation.
Obviously, CCP would have to find other solutions and will be forced to invade their neighbors, Taiwan would have been invaded with no questions asked. Even India would not be spared. These activities would have the Western powers opting for a ‘nuclear war’ and fighting regional wars. The world must thank Deng Shio Ping and the CCP cadres who followed the ‘One Child Policy’ stringently. Had China’s runaway population scenario materialized there will be no question about population decreasing but increasing by leaps and bounds. The world was saved due to this historic folly of ‘social engineering’ by the CCP of China !
They also created the problem under Mao in the first place.
Mao did not initiate the One Child Only policy ! What Mao did was to formulate a policy called the 'Great Leap Forward' which was as much a hare brained project similar to OCO ! They constructed make shift iron ore melting units rural area in the thousands which produced most sub par junk that was not steel at all ! There was also a man made shortage of food which resulted in famine killing off thousands of peasants. Perhaps, Mao also deserves some credit for saving the world of a far greater calamity: Genghis Khan like Armageddon ! @@alanbudde8560
falling for a 14th straight year ...
The current population of Japan in 2024 is 122,631,432, a 0.54% decline from 2023.
The population of Japan in 2023 was 123,294,513, a 0.53% decline from 2022.
The population of Japan in 2022 was 123,951,692, a 0.53% decline from 2021.
The population of Japan in 2021 was 124,612,530, a 0.5% decline from 2020.
Whataboutism at its finest
18-1-2023 Japan’s Fukuoka Miyaka Mayor was involved in bullying: “You need to have three children to be called a woman.” More than 100 people complained.
@@happymelon7129 did more than 100 people then get locked up?
We talk about China they lose to India 😂😂😂😂😂
Singapore foreign population increases drastically
Efforts are having an impact, the rate of decline in births was narrower than last year. We were expecting a catastrophe with less than 8 million births. Unfortunately covid related deaths and the impact of lockdowns led to a rise in deaths last year which provoked this population decline. The aging is an irreversible trend now in any case, they understand that they have to adapt to it
5.2% growth is consider slow. CNA Olivia, need to go back to school.
Which western countries has more than 3% growth.
5.2% compared to almost 2 decades of almost 10% growth. Western countries growth always 2 or 3 % growth for over 2 decades
thats why sgeans and global south need to boycott and ban CNA.... CNA shames sg
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if
China..
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft
Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China
avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from
China: A Hard Landing
2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing..
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than You Think
2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is
Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is
Here.
@@happymelon7129 epic 😂😂😂
@@kca955 better goes back to school. Which country can have constant 10% growth forever.
China gave birth to 2 Singapore a year and we are worried about China? You all must be professional worrier.
professional news and being paid for it. 😭
India gives birth to 1 Korea each year 😛 or 6 Singapores
Can you show the population rates across Americas, Europe, Africa, Asia and Americas?
Is it all relative?
Might be worth showing the big picture otherwise it may highlight bias.
😂😂没想到西方竟然还是有讲究客观事实的比较研究的，可以
It’s actually very well documented. A quick google search will do the trick (or Baidu providing it’s not censored info there). A lot of information about demographics struggles in Japan, Korea, Germany, Russia.
The US, France, Britain are quite healthy still.
The difference is the aforementioned struggling countries are mostly high income whereas China population fell off a cliff at mid income level.
@@Jacksonlgf As opposed to China’s? Censored but Objective? What a contradiction.
The US is positive including immigration. Europe is about flat overall. S America is slowing but stable. China has the 2nd lowest birth rate in the world after S Korea
@@alanbudde8560 The only thing keeping the US and Canada propped up is immigration. The problem that is the new reality. There are no more viable countries to poach immigrants from.
WHAT IS CHINAS CRIME? WHY ALL THE HATE? ARE THE CHINES PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO BE POOR? EVERY NATION HAS THE RIGHT TO BE SUCCESSFUL? WHY IS CHINAS SUCCESS SUCH A PROBLEM FOR THE WEST? SUCCESS IS NOT A CRIME.
Success is not the crime. It’s s what you do with your success that makes the difference.
👏👏👏👏👏
Since CNA is worried about the 5.2% GDP growth for China, the analysts there must be shivering on the 1% growth for USA and near 0% for Europe. Is there any commentary on these?
You believe chinese numbers when they even stopped reporting the youth unemployment rate😂
@Admiral-General_Aladeen but you believe US data, including their GDP growth and calculation?
Same narrative when come to China... what a brainwashed by western media
@@Admiral-General_Aladeen Look at the US and it's allies, anyone sane and smart wouldn't trust and follow them blindly. Pro US and western media are sugar coating them to make it looks good while bad mouthing everything about China although almost everyone knows their real true situations and credibility. Hollywood movie tactics are good for short term tricks in dreamland but it won't work well in the real true world.
That's the difference between a developed nation and an undeveloped one. The per Capita GDP says everything. China will be stuck in middle income before they get rich. Unlike Japan.
😂😅😂
😅If you even worry about China Population decline , you must be freaking out about Japan Population decline.
😅 Japanese Avg age 48.6 years old.
July 26, 2023 Japan’s population drops by nearly 800,000 with falls in every prefecture for the first time
The population of Japanese nationals fell by about 800,000 people, or 0.65%, to 122.4 million in 2022 from the previous year, falling for a 14th straight year
Comparing yourself to a weaker nation again wumao? Have you tried the USA? This is why china can never be a super global power.
Dr David Goldman said : the whole west suffers from the same demographic disaster.
@@ClaraFlater_than_surface_board
The increases in population in the USA are due mainly to immigration rather than natural growth and as populations decline worldwide this will be a problem for them as there will be less immigration, even more so if general standards of living continue to increase in the countries of the so‐called Global South due to direct foreign investment by a Chinese-led Asia leading to fewer people wanting to emigrate.
👮👮 👀😡
Singapore had the same problem, and so it started a program of welcoming immigration, especially qualified professionals. China could consider the same. But it got to a point where locals felt sidelined. But that was a necessity.
Why would you migrate to a communist country and the same country with appalling human rights abuses?
China is not really a very livable country, with the air pollution and warriness towards foreigner attitude, a difficult language on top of censorship Not really a top choice for skilled professionals that can be anywhere in the world. There's a reason foreigners have been leaving China even in Hong kong foreigners have been leaving
😂 you don't know China.. the government is racist to start with. It is near impossible to become a citizen without Chinese ancestry.
Lots of other issues which means this will never happen.
@@hannesRSA Don’t foreigners have their own country to develop, their countries need those so called skilled professionals.
Very few skilled workers if any will move to china? Even unskilled immigrants from say SE Asia will they move for $5000 a year salary? I doubt it. Manufactuers are moving to their countries anyway and they dont have to learn a new language and culture. Japan and S Korea are struggling to get immigrants. Who would move to China?
Is it? 2023 China GDP is 5 and 2024 projection is 4.5 to 5. What about the rest of the world would be from 1 to minus. Yes China shrinking population decline is a concern. There are a few things China could do to increase it population grown. One of them is by open up its door to overseas Chinese. 2nd provide Taiwanese to convert to China national by providing them attractive incentives and finally after reclaiming Taiwan it will add another 20 millions. All this are only temporary measure believe China authority will comes out with attractive program to encourage it people to have more children.
There is no way a government can encourage women or men for that matter to have more children. No matter how strict the control is. It is not something a government can change or impact. Governments do not have the solution for everything.
@@flaviodrusovalerio2825 no solution then resign lor. Money spend to buy more weapons lor than import more Indian problem resolve, right. Maybe you should name your child as Davidia. France took 10 years to overcome it short coming.
Read more books , speed is relative.
Here are the GDP growths from the major economies
US 2.4%
UK 0.5%
France 1%
Germany -0.3%
Canada 0%
Japan 1.6%
Australia 1.6%
--------------------------
China 5.6%
It’s sad that CNA always want to paint a bad picture of China. The analysis is superficial -aiming to justify the title. There is no attempt to speak of China transitioning economy to be less dependent demographic dividend. The correction of the property sector is also something that the Central government deliberately let happen. This kind of effort is something necessary but many other countries do not have the means or resilience to act on. Xi - property is to live in and not for financial gains. The so called experts interviewed cited that aging population is an issue, and again cited that Covid death of the sick and elderly is a cause to be concerned with as it accelerate the population decline. There is no doubt that China’s economy has many challenges; especially in the era of geo-political priorities to contain the growth of China by the west which just cannot compete with China in the current global trade framework and technological advancement of China in all major key 4th Industrial Revolution dimensions. China is a big ship to steer; but at least the China government is attempting to steer it; as against most other major economies merely kicking the can down the road.
CNA and other Singapore med!a = U.S. med!a. Singapore is a vassal of U.S.
CNA = CIA-controlled media...
Precisely my sentiments. Only those who had lived and worked in China and/or still working there will understand the internal dynamics in play. Indeed, cna is biased in most of their reportings for reasons only they and their handlers know.
Gxxg1e "The US-funded ‘think tank’ pushing Australia towards war
By Bruce Haigh - an Australian political commentator and former diplomat.
Jan 27, 2022"
Most CNA "expert" are from AUS think tank ...now you know why..
Sad for Singapore tax payer
It's the reality in China you wumao. Besides who said you can use UA-cam In china? Did Winnie approve this?
The CCP "stopped publishing the unemployment figures," LOL
4:22 talking about people retiring to "make space" for young people seeking jobs. In the United States at least, this expectation has been a disaster. In the majority of jobs, a 22 year old is 1/10 or less as valuable as a 60 year old, to the employer. Be careful what you wish for. This new generation of young Chinese had better get started early though. The average adult in this generation (Gen Z equivalent) is going to need to support two parents and two children, if the population demographics are ever going to get healthy again. Talk about a bad roll of the dice.
A Chinese free world is a brighter world.
You mean a - COMMUNIST-FREE world?
Population 📉 Environment 🌳📈
Whahahh soon only bitterness in china will remain
Which is worse ?
Singapore population decline or China's
Obviously a country with a smaller population will be more impacted than a country with a huge population.