The Dark Forest Theory’s Influence On Sci-Fi... And Beyond
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- Опубліковано 9 лип 2024
- Today we’re diving into the implications of the Dark Forest Theory on sci-fi and beyond.
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#scifi #thedarkforest #aliens
0:00 - intro
1:16 - What is The Dark Forest Theory?
2:40 - Origins of the Dark Forest Theory in Sci-Fi
4:27 - Reception and Influence of the Dark Forest Theory
7:29 - Literature and Cosmic Mistrust
10:26 - Movies & TV series
12:20 - My thoughts on the Dark Forest Theory
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After her family is killed and her homeworld occupied, young Kathreen Martin is sent to the distant world of Furoris for re-education. She will live the rest of her life as a serf - to be bought and sold as a commodity of the Imperial Network.
When her only chance of escape is ruined, a chance mistaken identity offers her a new life as the orphaned daughter of a First-Citizen Senator and heiress to a vast fortune.
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Five lives separated by aeons are inextricably linked by Prometheus’s actions:
Ystil.3 is an AI unit sent back in time from the distant future to investigate Prometheus’s discovery...
The mysterious Lydia has devoted her life to finding a planet that the last remaining humans can call home…
Tom Jones (he’s a HUGE fan!) is an AI trapped inside a digital subspace, lost and desperate to find his way back to his beloved in real-time…
Dr Norma Stanwyck is a neuroscientist from 24th Century Earth whose personal choices ripple throughout time...
Prometheus must learn the necessity of death or the entire universe will be swallowed by his grief.
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The popularity of the dark forest theory is a reflection of our times, much as Star Trek was of the 60s. We're facing potentially catastrophic environmental change amidst the rather late recognition that our corporate dystopia will let it happen. Star Trek was created in the aftermath of a World War, and for a brief period there was a communal understanding of a common good (albeit for whites only) with genuine optimism about the future.
We would like to see your library. Please do a library tour.
Yeah, he should certainly go for it. 👍
Once more, thanks a LOT, Darrel, for all these videos. They are amazing.
Fascinating!
The unknown elicits both curiosity and terror.
I think I first heard this idea in the '70s, possibly from Analog Science Fiction/Science Fact or maybe Omni Magazine, asking the question, "Why are we trying so hard to find extraterresrtrial life?" Suggesting that it may well be a scary universe out there. This was also about the time the movie "Alien" came out.
It's a neat answer to the Fermi paradox.
One of the key ideas in the Dark Forest hypothesis as discussed in the books, is that it's not that ALL civilisations are aggressors that will preemptively attack anyone they discover - it's just that you only need a handful of them to make everyone else shut up and hide. If only 0.01% of civilisations act that way, that is still an awful lot if there are billions of civilisations in each galaxy.
And it still doesn't make much sense.
Two things I feel are a problem with Dark Forest Theory.
1. If you fire a gun in a dark forest, everyone is going to hear you. Between Light Lag and general cosmic forensics, if you attack another civilization, there is a very good chance other civilizations can or will see what you did, and they will have confirmation that you are indeed a hostile force.
2. This presumption of extreme paranoia driving this aggression is stipulated on the premise that these civilization producing species have some entirely different form of socialization and thus morality. Our ability to discern right from wrong and have compassion isn't just a unique quirk of ours, it is a pre-requisite of us not merely being pack animals but being able to come together and execute the complicated plans that facilitate the rise of civilization. It's not just our opposable thumbs, it's out ability to not fly into murderous rages that kept the cold war, cold. Just as one can presume aliens would act to their saftey beyond all moral and logical qualms, why then is it hard to imagine they would have moral and logical qualms about just genociding another species on a hunch?
Yes, I will admit it is very possible for these potential other civilizations to have philosophical or ideological reasons for being so aggressive to potential unkowns. Or maybe they didn't develop with divided city states or nations.
My point is instead of cautious behavior, this scenario is paranoied and predicated on only the worst possible outcome as a forgone conclusion. Fact is we don't know. People need to calm down.
You're not appreciating the bright side of the Dark Forest in terms of cosmic ecology.
A microbe that divides indefinitely could fill the ocean, turn it into a toxic pond, which is kept at bay on Earth by the food chain. There isn't a equivalent to the food chain among space worthy civilizations in the cosmos, and the Dark Forest filles the same role.
In the third book of the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy, the author introduced a character called Singer, a member of a class three civilization. Singer's perspective is that creatures that doesn't hide would expand and attack without fear (and thereby could potentially grow exponentially and consume the universe).
In other words, to hide is the moral of cosmic society, to cleanse those who wouldn't hide is justice, cosmic environmental justice.
The most elegant part of the Dark Forest theory in the novels is that whatever morals or aggressivity levels any given civilisation has, the end result of a first contact will systematically be annihilation. Even the most benevolent species will understand they have no choice other than death or genocide.
Even when a bunch of human space ships become disconnected from Earth and isolated in space, the Dark Forest process triggers and we see it develop at lightning speed. Each ship's commander calculates all possible options and attemps to guess at the actions of the other ships. They all love and respect each others. But the calculations always end up exactly the same for everyone. It takes less than 5 minutes for all ships to open fire and annihilate each others. In the end only one survives. It's a truly terrifying passage.
I'm not convinced it's the case in real life, but the way the author presents it feels very convincing within the story!
Did songbirds forever stop singing once they realized the hawks above could hear them? Did militaries forever abandon radio communications when they realized opposition forces may be listening in? That's the logic of the Dark Forest Theory. It fails to account for adaptability or derive real logical conclusions. It requires the aggressors must be completely devoted zealots, or programmed machines, to seek out any potential opposition, and that these aggressors be extremely advanced to the point of tracking down, reaching, and taking care of those civilisations it encounters. It requires these aggressors be unstoppable. If such an unstoppable force existed, and was devoted to eliminating rival civilisations, then why does it too remain silent? If they have nothing to fear from being heard, why wouldn't they be broadcasting a lure, or bait others to come to it? Any such force would undoubtedly require resources to hold its territory. It obviously seeks to expand its territory if it seeks out and hunts down all others it see as a risk. If it's already that expansive and hungry for resources it would still find any emerging civilisations in the explored territory if they remained silent or not. Why would those other civilisations not cry out in warning once they became hunted? If they had the technology which made them visible to the hunters, they had the same tech to send out warnings to all others. What about speed of light in this whole thing? How long would it take the aggressors to detect and subsequently respond to an emerging civilisation given the limitations of speed of light?
It's both a simple but complicated question, as there is no clear answer, but only discussion as to which way we want to go. I can imagine a scenario that the Wow Signal was an enthusiastic response to us by an alien amateur astronomer, then quickly silenced by the powers that be because they want their world to remain a secret, lol. Great video, Darrell, and an excellent topic. :)
My favorite Fermi Paradox answer is the *GRABBY ALIENS* hypothesis! But it was published not long ago, I haven't seen it used in fiction. It would be incredible if you made a video on the hypothesis' potential application to science fiction!!! 😊
Love your work Darrel!
The dark forest idea is very fascinating and I would argue, extremely plausible
If I recall correctly (and I'm sure I'll be put right if I don't) the main premise for the Dark Forest Theory was that every civilization would realise that the universe was not infinite, but finite, and so the resources available to all civilizations would also be finite. Therefore, to ensure that your civilization would prosper over all the others, you would need to annihilate the competition., whilst at the same time not falling foul of another civilization doing that to you.
Whilst this seems like a very logical argument, it precludes any advanced civilization discovering new ways of creating resources from nothing and that is a topic that has also been explored in SF.
What I'm trying to say here is that the Dark Forest Hypothesis is a very crude way to view the universe. It leaves no scope for optimism, it is a death sentence. If the human race is to continue for any meaningful era of time it stands to reason it will need to expand outwards, into space. If the Dark Forest viewpoint were to be adopted by everyone then it leaves no hope at all and this is something that I find insidious.
You're misinterpreting. It's not "to ensure your civilization to prosper OVER all others". It's "To ensure your civilization survive at all".
The key idea is that intelligent life could expand and consume the whole universe, like a micro divide indefinitely would fill the ocean.
There lacks a food chain in the cosmos that keep life at bay.
A civilization that doesn't feel the need to hide would "expand and attack without fear".
To hide well is simply the law of cosmic society, because it entails being careful with cosmic environmental footprint. Any civilization that doesn't hide well is EVIL and must be eliminated before they kill off everybody else.
@@TheChappaai Well, I did say someone would put me right and I can't fault your point. Bravo 🙂 and thank you.
I'm in book 3 of The Sun Eater series at the moment. There are several alien species but the main enemy, the Cielcin, is sufficiently hostile and bloodthirsty to make anybody pause before hitting the send button to let others know we are here. On the other hand the series is about one man's effort to take the war to the enemy.
This is not technically the Dark Forest. I didn't read The Sun Eater, but from your description, the Cielcin is not in hiding. In the Dark Forest, ALL civilizations must be in hiding and be careful of their environmental footprints.
Another precursor novel of the universe as a hostile place is The Killing Star by Charles Pellegrino written back in 1995.
I feel that star trek touched on the well with the klingons and romulans and latter thr cyborg. They had pointed out that it may not all be sunshine and rainbows, so l really don't know how new this idea is, but certainly not the first.
6:45 - Ha - berserkers! The concept almost as old as SciFi itself.
It is said the very first science fiction authors were all devoured by Berserkers... 😂
Another work of great sci-fi also masterfully depicts a power dynamics of conflicting superpowers in a newly discovered alien race in the context of first contact with human civilization. But unlike the other similar stories of the genre human civilization plays a role of a superior race, making it a great POV take on theme of first encounter with a more powerful civilization.
It's a great work of Polish author Stanisław Lem (mostly know for authoring "Solaris"), "Fiasco".
I love everything about the three body problem series... EXCEPT the ending where they had powers beyond multiple dimensions. Then it got too unbelievable.
It got too convenient to backwards justify the dark forrest policy.
I remember watching Carl Sagan as a child, and his optimistic views of the wider universe. Over the years, I came to find this approach more and more unrealistic, and viewing the wider cosmos with a more pessimistic approach. I always viewed human propensity towards violence and warring over resources as a microcosm of cosmic civilization as a whole. Some theorize the entire purpose of the universe and everything in it is to expel the finite and constant energy to maximum entropy through pockets of low-entropy structures that exist to add to the universal high-entropy surplus. Conflict and the exponential growth of civilizations at any scale helps to dispel energy to that end, if in fact, the most basic universal directive to expel energy reigns supreme at the most fundamental level, from the smallest microbes to vast intelligent societies.
Did the military ever abandon radio communication whenever there was a conflict? Like one day realize the other side might be able to determine the positions of their forces so completely abandoned all radio communications for eternity? Did songbirds entirely stop singing, never once began singing again, when they realized the hawks above could hear them? That's Dark Forest Theory.
Do you watch Hammer film by Wal Gust Abominable snowman in the Himalayans? This film is talking about contacts between lifes outspace.
The child calling out in the forest would say you're being negative.
We like to think positively.
Thanks for the video! Maybe even conflict is a human concept which alien beings might not have. After all there's easily that much difference between different earth species. Lichen is a symbiont of algae and fungi. Both want the position but by cooperating they become much more successful creatures.
❤
In the very probable case that the speed of light will forever stay insurmountable obstacle to practical interstellar travel, the only thing one civilization can "take" from others is information. Not resources, not _lebensraum._ Even if it turns out to be somehow possible to cheat this limit (insert your favourite SciFi trope - wormholes, stargates, hyperspace...), the cost in terms of effort and sheer energy will always outweigh any potential benefit of conquest, resource plundering, even colonization.
OTOH, if there happens to be some evil expansionist Idiran empire. I bet it will encounter some version of Culture to keep them in check.
Dark Forest attack doesn't come from predators. There are no predators in the Dark Forest, non that can survive. The hunters are enforcers, they hunt greedy predators. The only reason to not hide is greed.
Dark Forest Theory falls apart quickly with the slightest bit of scrutiny.. Animals still make sound despite other animals capable of hunting them can still hear them. In modern times it's not as if nations in conflict completely abstained from using radio communications so as to not let the other side know where its forces are gathered. Expending resources to patrol the galaxy to find intelligent life (the rarest of all life forms) and wipe them out for sonething that *_might_* be a problem some undeterminate amount of time in the future, limited by speed of light, doesn't make logistic or logical sense either.
First 👍🏼
Hypothesis at best, certainly not a theory. Let's stick to "Sci" in "SciFi" - the evidence threshold for a concept to qualify as theory is much higher.