Thomas Fingar: Understanding China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative
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- Опубліковано 5 сер 2024
- China is heavily investing in two infrastructure routes: a “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” stretching from Southern China across the Indian Ocean to connect Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa to the Mediterranean; and a land-based Silk Road Economic Belt connecting Western China to Europe via Central Asia. Establishing these transcontinental trade routes will likely cost over one trillion dollars and will cover 65% of the world's population. This investment could help fill a wide “infrastructure investment gap” in China and the 68 other Asian, African, and European countries it passes through, however, traditional international development actors such as multilateral investment banks and developed nations are concerned about the outcomes, terms, and process that come with this massive investment. There are still a number of questions surrounding how China might protect the route after it's built and if the benefits will outweigh the risk. Should recipient countries be worried about political strings that might come attached to OBOR projects? What impact does this different unilateral, loan-based model have on the recipient countries? How likely is China to succeed in achieving these grand investment goals and how will a project of this scale continue to contribute to China’s own growth? What type of impact does this project have on global trade in general?
Join us and Dr. Thomas Fingar, a Shorenstein APARC fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, to discuss these and other questions surrounding China’s massive undertaking.
SPEAKER:
Thomas Fingar
Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University
MODERATOR:
Markos Kounalakis
Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution
For more information about this event please visit: worldaffairs.org/event-calenda...
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it's not expensive at all, it's equal to 2 years USA spending for only the army. That army investment is a waist of money but that belt will earn china plenty money and political friends...stupid talk about corruption as if america isn't corrupt
every dollar USA spends on military, the world suffers; please BUILD
it wasnt about the cost, but the nation security. Back then Silk Road actually worked because the system is run by only the Mongol, which mean the military is involved to protected the transportation. Now is it safe for China to have foreign military in another nation, thats the big issue.
Yeah, we are democrats; we get to elect OUR OWN DICTATORS!
@Don ta china does a LOT of bad things but its nowhere near as bad as the U.S.
Bullying is nowhere near as bad as carpet bombing civilians.
I wish to add on to Mr Fingar's speech because he had left out some key points (probably because he didn't read Chinese news directly):
1. Premier Li had already mentioned back in 2014/15 that one of China's economic objective is to reduce over-production, hence the Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) aims to use the excess supply of, say iron and steel, into infrastructure projects for developing countries. BRI is not a surprise in this case, just a matter of whether you had listened carefully and from the correct news.
2. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was set up to support BRI because under existing framework, the World Bank, which is dominated by Western countries, is unable to provide the loans to developing countries because they can never meet the minimum requirements (ie environmental protection and regulation). In short, China is complementing the West by helping poorer countries.
3. The use of Sri Lanka as an example to put down BRI as a bad deal is inappropriate because China don't decide how Sri Lanka finance the various projects but China does offer loans at lower rates compared to the West.
4. If not for China, who else ? The West ?
Exactly. China has no ambitions to conquer others. World hegemony must be earned, not won with bombs and noisy machine gun fire. (Maybe if you crush their hands with rifle butts and then just let the rats eat them at night, no one will notice the death).
Would love to know some good news sources for China news, please
@@ErnestOfGaia I like Six tones, its mainly focusing on social issues from an individual event, but it's not widely recognized. for official news, in terms of macroeconomic policy and foreign policy, CCTV and Xinhua News are the Chinese equivalents of BBC
" It took China from 1978 to 2001 and beyond to enter the world trade when the U.S. was doing all the blocking until it was not possible any more. Mr. Fingar."
Even if only half of all the belt and road projects succeed, it will still be a huge success for humanity as a whole.
Absolutely agree. Any road or rail is useful as long as it is used. Bombs and bullets are not.
Yeah, America cannot command others to boycott Chinese goods. How ungrateful some people can be!
@@patrickkoh1056 Money is their bomb and bullet.
😂 😂 china 🇨🇳 is smart and meticulous with people like you on its rolls .. the problem is it is good for mankind if you consider the Chinese communist party as all of mankind
✓
'Those who control EURASIA control the World'
-
*John*Halford*Mackinder*
This is the base of everything
So what ?
So Its imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America
-
Zbignew Brzezinski
I just love China, helping many countries 👍👍
Never send a bomb 💣🤣
China is investing heavily in the one belt,one road for two way trade.China is building bases and the PLAN to protect this trade.
Every words that came out of his mouth, there is smell of vinegar in the air. I wonder why???
that's show of angered , jealous, racist in the heart.
Dr. Fingar had a lot of trouble to express the belt as one around the world, not just Kazakhstan or Indonesia. While the road stretches not just to Europe, Africa but through out Asia. Even Trump's trade war have different effect on China and US (completely missed by US), that China learns to depend on its talent, developing technology to a higher level (like 'made in China' by 2025), while the US fail to bring back industries out of China and into USA, cannot increase manufacturing (designed to dominate/bully not trade) and thus is stuck with a SMI still hovering where Obama left it.
China is well under way to establish a new world order and into the mythical thousand years of prosperity.
The moderator said China is a monster, what is USA then ? The "Dark lord"? :)
(If what they do on 5th Avenue were visible, why --- the police would've stopped them long ago).
US is the principal Satan on earth
Till 2008 China was very comfortable with parking its Trade surplus in American treasuries. But after the busting of housing boon in USA. America started paying back its Debit by printing Dollars ( Quantum Easing) this got Chinese worried about the value of its treasuries so it came up with a project called OBOR which is essentially lending money to 65 countries to build infrastructure. This infrastructure is build by Chinese companies and opens up new markets for it products. This investment in 65 countries hedges its risk and it gets better interest rate than it is getting for its USA BONDS. The Trillion dollar investment is less than 2 years of its trade surplus, so it can afford it. The political influence it will get is a bonus.
Yes. China realized she was being paid back with INFLATED DOLLARS and so she has been buying up GOLD and also GOLD MINES. For the amount of gold on this planet is LIMITED, and if China can get enough, she will be sitting on the egg LAID BY THE GOLDEN GOOSE (Amelika).
Really intelligent, wise interviewee. He makes real sense of China. (I have been watching mainland china from Taiwan for nearly 40 years). He also makes sense of what is happening in Turkey. Really nice to hear someone you can actually pronounced Beijing properly.
If more countries with rich financial resources other than China join the BRI club, it could be a big headache for the US, as it will find it difficult to borrow cheap money from other countries to support their economy, maybe that's the top reason why US is against the BRI plan.
The one belt one road program is only the result of the US Naval pressure on China. It's not ambitious and it's too hard to succeed. China's objective is simply expand its market as much as possible when the coastline has been pushed, i.e., the east of China has not much to work on. Japan and Korean and even Taiwan have been closely linked with the US, and Australia, etc. , what else can China expect to do in terms of markets?
At 6:15........Yeah, the ports and railroads "funded" by the Japanese were taxes extracted from areas where they occupied during the Japanese from late 19th century through WWII. At that time Japan itself did not produce enough GDP to fund its war machine and had to steal from the Chinese and Koreans. The term "funded by the Japanese" sounded like the Japanese were doing the Chinese and Koreans a big favor.
They are not trying to force it on anyone...
Why do Americans and Europeans always talk about bribes and corruption, when they talk about China and other countries? Every big company and certainly a transnational company cannot exist without corruption and bribes. Big business and high politics are both very corrupt!
However, it is a very interesting interview and shows viewpoints you do not often hear. Well done! Very wise remarks about the relationship between Turkey and the EU. Indeed, the arrogant EU-leaders treated the Turcs as a backward people.
Yes, the WEST is full of HYPOCRITES quick to judge and condemn others --- while doing the same things themselves. Take that loud mouthed leader in D.C. for example. Psalm 73:6-12 described this blood sucker to a "T". (Such men ALWAYS increase in wealth --- and they never afflict the WEALTHY, who can afford to pass bribes under the table of KANGAROO COURTS.
That is called
OLIGARCHS owned brainwashing machine
CNN CNBC MSNBC NBC Fox etc.
Very grounded, balanced and realistic discussion about Chinas BRI and its role in the world. Excellent!
It is an excellent program, very informative. I have learned a lot about China. I like to have opportunities to listen to similar programs in the future. Thank you.
There is one major problem with the Belt and Road Initiative. It is not led by America or the EU. That is the most serious problem.
BRI is one of the transportation, you already have Air and Sea. Imagine one day you would get congested sea lane and air space, by then it would be too late to transport goods let alone the people.
Simple ideas always work. The countries take the credit loans and China builds it. No cost for China. China doesn’t need the Belt for exports as they are enough already and working fine. The idea is to control the credit and you control the countries. Much like the USA is doing today.
Really nice interview. As always, the "one child policy" comes up as the big impediment to Chinese future growth.
Any recommendations on literature depicting the negotiations of that rule?
The building of infrastructure in less developed countries actually seems like a pragmatic move. Chinese companies need it, the Sovereign Countries need it too. The US has the same goal for the developing countries, hopes that US economic help will enable those countries to develop BUT actually the money is wasted or stolen. The Chinese understand this and just go in and do what must be done. Self-serving? Yes. But their development does indeed bypass the local graft. China understands this. The US is too moral in its expectations. (Naive)
but having a high-speed railroad or modern ports helps the isolated or less affulent areas nations to expirt their goods to maje money and import useful stuff or take transactional fees. There are a very few wrong choice of locations etc, like in Siri Lanca, way off mainatrean area; it shouldn't be used to paint the whole project dark.
Belt and Road is to benefit the humankind, at least 65% of the world population. It’s a giant win-win project. It’s about humankind, friendship, civilized development. It’s also a commitment and faith humanity.
yes you are right. Its just another type of transportation like road and air, But the western countries want to have so many strings attached, Just a rail track only ! what the hack !
Good analysis
not sure I remember in anerica the transcontinental railway to build the railways across the United States. --Dodge city Sierra Nevada and how The Western United States became connected. I thing the One Belt One Road is the same as the Trans continental railway. to build commerce.
. THe problem is some groups do not want this, . They think they should be the ones to build the railway. AKA USA British
✓
'Those who control EURASIA control the World'
-
*John*Halford*Mackinder*
This is the base of everything
So what ?
So Its imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America
-
Zbignew Brzezinski
There is a Vice News production "China's One Belt One Road Could Make Or Break This Poor European Country" where I pointed out, that the 3.2-B-$-Highway has a fine print saying 70% has to be contracted to Chinese firms. That means 100% of the 3.2b-loan flows in, and 2,24b flows right back to China. The 30% stays there, going through spending and saving, to become industrial investment, which should produce the revenue to repay the 100%. They would need additional foreign investment, which they hope (I doubt) will come.
Long Live China
you are doing great
i have some questions
good
politically modern, political western, same or not? That is the question.
The Belt and Road Initiative is actually bypassing the maritime trade channel controlled by the United States, and Americans are certainly afraid! Just like the oil China renminbi, China's global industrial division of labor competitiveness is gradually approaching the United States! Therefore, the United States began to comprehensively curb China’s development. US hegemony does not allow any country to compete with the United States! Look at the war launched by the United States. You will understand the reasons for all this! Although the United States is a highly democratized country, behind the democratic government are controlled by large interest groups, such as arms and oil finance. This will inevitably drive the United States to use war and other means to maintain its dominance. This is why U.S. spending has not been used to build the United States. After all, China has experienced a history of 5,000 years of civilization. Looking back at the history of China, the dynasty that used force to dominate was often dying, and the history of the world was also reviewed. Therefore, China will not take the old road of the United States. China's One Belt and One Road is to link the Eurasian African continent with railways, so that it can form the world's largest trade market. The advantage is that it can be separated from the US sea route control. Once the largest world trade market is formed, the United States will be marginalized. The United States will no longer be the central force of the world, and the center of the world will return to Europe, Asia and Africa! This is why the United States is so afraid of the Belt and Road. And China has begun to compete with the United States in high-end manufacturing, so the United States has to do everything to kill China! Including political diplomacy, financial warfare, media public opinion warfare, biological weapons warfare, arms competition, and finally military warfare.
American Empire was built on three prongs: diplomacy, finance, and military. Belt and Road allows countries in the Global South to participate in trade without the yoke of American hegemony.
First of all, for China ,Belt and Road Initiative is business,profitable business to sustain the growth of its economy without the need to do thing like “ghost cities” anymore.Do we know how important is economic growth for China? The CCP knows after 40 years and got so addicted that it will do anything to maintain it as much as possible.There is no way the POTUS can come close to understanding the weight of responsibility of the CCP to give its people a good life to prove its legitimacy to its dictatorship. This internal reason is far important that all the external reasons like extending political influence, existentially for the CCP.
Economy run, means given opportunities for peoples activities. Bread for peoples in the world and not weapons for the world. Contradiction with sanctions here and there, which make buying power decresed, resulted tension here and there, and demolizing economy growth for free trade between growth population. Trade Growth make less budget for sophiscated weapons, Bread for the peolpes. the monetary system should be changed . Poor countries are not able to solve existing fluctuatd currencies exchanged rate and emerging market system. Huge expertise teach at reputated Universities for creating poverty or type group as Cash of King.
*It is irresponsible and dishonest to suggest unfounded bribery and in the same breath confessed “I don’t know”. For goodness sake, if you don’t know, then don’t put it out there! What if somebody did the same to you or your govt?*
just wanted to discredit China,
It is a great thing that the traditional trading routes, the Silk Roads, are being revitalized! These trading routes have been the corridors of Human Civilization for thousands of years! It is a brilliant idea for the Chinese leader in initiating this trading model to expand the Eurasian-Afrian trades to boost the world economy in this stagnate era, and to promote Chinese influence! Kudos to the Chinese leader Xi Jinping!
Trading is the best human exchange in-between nations , comparing with War which the Americans have been embarked on for too long!!!! War is an absolute destructive action benefits nobody and it wastes resources which are otherwise can be used to benefit human beings in general. Imagining if the Americans could put the 30 trillion dollars they wasted in the 30-year wars as trading investment to all the nations, what the world will become today???!!! But in stead, the Americans took the wrong route by embracing the wars and made itself an evil empire!
Now, the Americans started another war - trading war with the World: Iran, India, China, Europeans .... even its neighbors Canada and Mexico!
Building trading routes is a very Smart Strategy for the Chinese to counter the American Trading War. China will win this trading war against the America by one simple factor: the geographic proximity to the population centers on the massive Eurasian Land Mass and the emerging African marketplace! It is a simple math and this strategy will win!
indepth discussion on china by experienced scholars
Land belt, Sea Road.
Hambontota is not going to be a Naval Base. Modi Govt made that sure. As an analyst you should know .
OKAY
No one likes a sore loser. If the worst crime u can pin on China IS to build stuff and give out loans, then i d say China must be a saint in reality.
After the British left India divided geographically and socially (retaining the caste system for Hindus and separating the Muslims geographically) pitched one country against the other and stalled all development. The problem was Gandhi-ism and the attitude of Gandhi to be a cult figure, favored caste system (implanted into Krishna's India by the Kuru, who came from central Asia and replaced Sanatan religion with Semitic religion of Hinduism [and replacing Vishnu with Semitic god Rama] after they destroyed the Yadav tribe in the battle of Kurukhetra [1500-1200 bc]) supported by Gandhi as a gift of evolution and therefore retain able (thereby giving more importance to ideology than being a patriot (in contrast to Shubash Bose, who gave more importance to nationalism than ideology). India remained divided within and without, while Gandhi took the path of appeasing the British, by adapting democracy (which failed to provide human rights to the majority) and did not ban the caste system. Gandhi proved to be a traitor (Gandhi and the British originally agreed to an undivided India, but the British tricked and pressed Gandhi to division, although Gandhi did not have the mandate to division), like the founding fathers of USA embraced Zionism, which has brought its downfall.
Who can do better job besides China? USA?
✓
'Those who control EURASIA control the World'
-
*John*Halford*Mackinder*
This is the base of everything
So what ?
So Its imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America
-
Zbignew Brzezinski
Whatever the cost, it pales to USA trillions x years = ? Of military spending.
54:00 I don't care what they did for my grandmother, but what have they done during the past twenty years is very impressive. And I believe that democracy will only dividend my country, weakening economic growth. Hongkong and Taiwan enjoy the so-called democracy but did not work very well. I'd like to give CCP a chance to illustrate their model. If it turns out wrong, then let's embrace democracy later.
Strange way of looking at things-----
Facebook- George Wu -container housing for OBOR. 2019-3-10
Am I literally the first comment?
China's One Belt One Road initiative is as much about the ability to move troops as it is to move goods. The French lent money to the Russians to build railroads to speed mobilization in case of war with Germany. The Nazis built the Autobahn to move troops across Germany. The Chinese are investing in infrastructure in specific countries in order to facilitate the movement of troops and equipment into the Middle East and Europe because they understand that in the event of war with the West, a land based war that plays to the size of their army is their best strategy.
The Belt and Road Initiative has hit a massive roadblock couple of days back by 27 out of 28 European union envoys in Beijing raising questions and condemning the B & R Initiative.They are of the opinion that this initiative will work counter to liberalising trade and it is biased in favour of highly subsidised Chinese companies.This B & R initiative is by the Chinese, for the Chinese which is lacking transparency, sustainability and social standards. In the language of diplomacy this is a very serious condemnation by member countries.
However the B & R initiative may be a boon for landlocked countries of Central Asia, with the role of Pakistan to provide R & R (rest and recreation) to Chinese transporters.
They are there to criticised and give negative feedback.
These gays dose not know what is belt and what road
Funny
The world forgot to think that there are big differences between policies of any things created by Democracy nations compared to Communist nations. Pls. Talk about this for further discussion.
The difference is too obvious to talk about, White democracy nations did genocide, raped, robbed, colonized...... And something like that.
He knows nothing about BRI.
Morrons talking.....
well, useful to hear his views .. he is not the average American ... he is not all wrong
Sorry Sir. Road and belt happend first to Tibet. Later trucks came, tanks came and guns came and occupied Tibet. Our parents were paid silver coins to help the roads. The Chinese are using the same template now to the world. Warning to you all from us Tibetans.
Like your words about being modernized in economy without the modernized in political should not work out. Great Words
For example Thailand where I am, we welcome investment from any democratic nations because with them is the support of Freedom and market-driven economy. When communist china starts its steps into Thailand, I noticed the changes in Thai policies to the point that our latest constitution changes reflect Control, High Central Government, and not-all from Thai people votes.
the host is so annoying and bad at forming a sentence. he seems totally unprepared.
It is trick of China. As China has overproduced building materials, cement, steel China wants to dump these to other countries along with unemployed Chinese workers. It is giving loans in Yuan, which actually means no cash, but materials. The payments it will demand is either US$ or Gold or the country needs to buy an equivalent amount of goods from China. Thus, China gains in both ways, but the borrowing country will be ruined in the process. It will have to sell its port, or roads to China, destroying its domestic industry in exchange for unused houses, roads, bridges.
Dipak Basu, unused? The infrastructure china builds is highly used.
Brilliant, so many countries asking for much needed loans, infrastructure, development, GDP, jobs, why? wanting and waiting to be tricked? So many govts are stupid??? must be countries with extremely low IQ. Hope your country is not one of them. Brilliant analysis. When West went places before, they dont wait for invitation, did India or Africa? At least you got to invite CHINA this time, and sign contract with legal DD.
I am a believer in Power Trap. Communist party has been in their seats far too long to be able to let go unless the people do something for themselves.