Vancouver & Toronto Real Estate Market Update December 2023
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- Опубліковано 30 чер 2024
- The Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets remain sluggish in December. Sales are below long term trends and pre-sale condos are still catching fire in Toronto. The government has proposed sweeping housing policies to try and turn the tides. Mortgage remains are coming down, although still very high.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:40 Toronto Market Update
04:40 Vancouver Market Update
07:00 Will a Rate Peak Revive Market?
17:49 More High Rate Fallout to Come?
22:07 Poilievre Housing Video Analysis
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Investors should be willing to take risks with their exposure when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields
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That's a risky attitude, My friend. You might be missing out on some valuable opportunities and strategies that a finance advisor can offer. A finance advisor can help you plan for your short-term and long-term goals, optimize your tax situation, diversify your portfolio, and avoid costly mistakes.
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People downplay planner’s role, until they are burnt by their mistakes. That’s why I’ve been working with expert planners like CHRIS RYAN STEWART
They're calling for wartime homes to be built. What does that tell you about how bad things are. 😮
If only we had a crown corporation with a mandate to build social housing using federal money that could work in concert with the central bank to manage interest rates for these projects... Oh wait we had that and both Conservative and Liberal governments took it away.
@@deltadovertime you don’t need federal money. Just scrap the outrageous $185 per sq foot development fee for rental towers.
Great content. Much appreciated.
The main issue with the idea that prices will just rip if rates cut is that they can't lower rates unless there is a big economic issue that causes increases in unemployment OR wages don't keep up for employees. Both of those will reduce the pool of buyers. If they cut rates and that results in increased prices that will require them to quickly react and increase rates further or inflation will come roaring back.
Great show!
Hey Steve , really nice video! I was wondering if I could help you enhance Editing in your videos and also make highly engaging Short Videos for you ?
Wondering if you ever speak with realtor experts from other provinces, outside BC/Ontario. Feels like BC & Ontario are just always unaffordable but curious how others who escaped these provinces are getting by.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Why is this video a repost from yesterday and with a different title?
going after more ad revenue
Not a word about land value speculation as a cause of unaffordability.
The idea that the Feds have to sit on their hands and watch other levels of government stimulate housing growth is a fiction. The feds hold all the important levers that could control investment in housing. Monetary policy, regulation of lending, direct mortgage financing, tax law/policy, fiscal stimulus and mortgage insurance are all primarily, if not fully controlled by the Federal government. Once upon a time we had a strong federal government that actually cared about housing. The Mulroney government along with the Campbell government took away public housing investment and subsequent Liberal governments did nothing to change it.
It is truly sad to see such incompetence in the federal government over decades to a problem they could do significant work to begin fixing.
Sounds like you want the federal government to print and borrow more money and keep interest rates down. That's what caused the problems we are experiencing now.
I do agree with you though about both the conservatives and the liberals removing federal government involvement in housing. They should, indeed must, get back into directly building housing.
I do not agree with John's take on giving municipalities fund on approvals nor Pollievre's plan on funds on completion.
I think a low-interest loan to municipalities that is forgivable on certain milestones would be the most appropriate.
Don’t think BOC will cut before the summer. They don’t want another Fomo market, like last spring.
Drastic times call for drastic measures. Government should remove the $185 per sq ft development fee for rental towers. Government needs to take one step back for the developers to build rental towers like weeds. Unfortunately the government always sticks to something that doesn’t work.
$185 per sq ft government development fee for condos is outrageous!
Steve is the only honest RE agent. John is trying to mask the truth like most REA's. Friends of mine that are REA in TO will tell you things right now are TERRIBLE. My accountsnt who is a partner at one of the top firms in Canada says his high end clients are prepping their portfolio's for a crash.
I agree with John, Pierre maybe better than Trudeau but him demonizing the municipalities and his inability to explain the actual problem and share a decent solutions makes me less optimistic.
Municipalities should be demonized.
Come election day in 90% of the areas they know that if u run on a platform that is pro densification u will not win.
They win by putting roadblocks in front of any project.
This protects there voter base, which in almost every community in this country from busier neighborhoods and potential decreased property values.
The "Not in my backyard" mentality" for decades is 100% the root of this housing problem.
I married into a construction family 25 years ago and have listened to the frustration over the dinner table for half my life.
2 years to get a building permit in Langley.
Gimme a break.
Home owners all love Trudeau was their houses all doubled in price the last 8 years.
“SOLD UNDER ASKING” “NOT COMING SOON” along with bidding wars and all the shady tactics, snooty attitudes realtors used is a nice sign.
I went StatsCAN and shelter costs are based on shelter cost not house prices. Add house prices and rates to your graph and then extrapolate 10 years. House prices will only increase from the 2021 highs based on wages and not ever lower rates. Rates cannot go below zero. The immigration card? The last 2 years have seen immigration increase by the fastest amount ever at one million and house prices dropped by the most ever. Rates and unemployment have determined house prices for the last 40 yrs. Rates are not going back to zero anytime soon. Unemployment is increasing. So what is going to drive prices higher than 2021 levels? It’s all about affordability. If you can’t afford the down payment or the monthly mortgage you can’t buy a house. Plain and simple. Also all those one or two house landlords made their wealth not on rent but ever increasing house prices. If houses now increase as wages increase they will sell those properties. Simply plot interest rates vs house prices and extrapolate. Housing in Canada is in big big trouble. And those immigrants won’t help but in fact make it worse as they replace those higher income homeowners.
Only makes sense.
When your selling anything the price is always based on what the market will bear.
If all the people looking for housing are at a lower income, then prices will have to adjust accordingly, or real estate will not sell and spaces will not rent.
Simple economics.
The investor class created a false market rate which has no choice but to correct.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b that’s the point isn’t it? In the next couple of years do you believe houses will double in price like they have being doing from the highs of 2021. If you believe that just do the down payment and mortgage math for a house worth 1.2 million in 2021 in Toronto? Let’s use an average funds rate of 3% or even 0%. What down payment do you require and what would be the annual salary for a bank to qualify. If people can’t afford those house prices no matter how few homes are for sale compared to no matter how many buyers there are they can’t buy. Unless you start putting 2 or 3 families in a 3 bedroom house. I bought my first house in 1979. It was 50K. We earned about 25K. The down payment of 5K took less than a year to save and the mortgage was less than twice our annual income. And that was for a 4 bedroom house. Do the math today. Average wage about100K. Average home in Toronto is about 1.2M. The 110K down payment will take a life time to save and your mortgage would be 10X your annual income. Do that for the house in 5 years which you think will at least double. You now earn 120K. The down payment of 220K can never be saved and if you had rich parents your mortgage would now be 20X your annual income. At even Covid rates that mortgage would be still double what it was then.
@@John-bq9jh I personally think that housing has to be looked at like the stock market now, since it has become so investor driven..
The govt is at war with STRs, so those investors are out.
Presale condos are 80% bought by investors and purchases are based on real estate going up, so there out.
What u can charge a reg working person for rent is becoming less than total property expenses as the renewals play out over the next 2 or 3 years, so at least half of those investors will be out.
Higher interest rates will keep any speculators looking for a 4 to 5 year return out.
All that will be left is end users and long term landlords who tend to have equity..
Long story short.
Real estate will come back down to 4 to 5 times income over the next 5 years.
I googled my address and checked on Zillow.
Sold in 1981 for 105k
Sold in 1996 for 126k.
We're heading into the same kind of recession as the 80s.
@@John-bq9jh in my opnion
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b I agree. That’s totally wrong if Canada wants to attract immigrants and keep them here.
from my experience, density is not a positive indicator for birth rate. Stucking in a train or bus is not how you encourage people to bring another human being on earth.
Too much DEBT.
need lower rates as a consequence. #ratecuts
Lol rates drop a tiny bit Steve thinks buyers will just appear. Theres mortgage holders out there who cant even handle a 1% increase in boc rate. The only reason sales picked up in spring was because many believed boc would save re and crash rates again. Core inflation is in the 4% range. Rates wont be coming down significantly. These "experts" are praying they do since their incomes rely on it, and im sure they see how in debt their clients are
it's irrational, but there is likely enough held up demand by people that can afford to buy at 5% who will lift up the market in specific in demand segments (SFH/attached in 416/604 cores). Condos probably screwed, as they should be at current valuations.
The ones still buying are either millionaire immigrants, millionaire students, millionaire investors or people with rich parents because everyone else is totally priced out.
@@Observer168 well why aren't they buying now? They should be buying now and interest rates should be irrelevant to them.
@@adrianasher1457 many sitting on the sidelines waiting for deals but some are still buying
We saw it happen in the spring. A small price reduction by the bank and there was a bull market. Then inflation numbers came in, rates went back up, and people got spooked.
There’s demand out there. People just want to get a deal.
The winners are buying now and home owners who are not selling now. The losers are sidelined thinking 2025 maybe I'll buy bc boc is at 3.5 rate.
Someone has heavy bags
@@heathmckenzie6875 if I sold my home I'd have a heavy 7 figure bag.
Realtor
lol, truth@@baseline6786
heavy bags of equity for at least 90% of owners@@heathmckenzie6875
Things are going to get way worse... 🤷♂️
Sorry why do you say real estate is very very local? What if the BOC put the interst close to zero for a long time which they did and boosted the property prices? So you think this is local?!!
we need low rates to be able to afford all our debt.
@DummMoney-rr1fi YA and you need to deal with inflation, society full of debt, assests in bubble and devaluation of currency, .....
@@mahanrazagh low rates did nothing to prices in 95% of Canada (aka not Vancouver/Toronto)....Alberta and the prairies went down in value during the low rate environment and in fact for the last 10 years. Demand is what moves prices....aka places where people want to go. Hawaii is always gonna be expensive.... Period.
Calgary sat flat under low interest rates for a decade while Vancouver and Toronto skyrocketed.
There goes down this UA-cam podcast too. Instead of December real estate market updates, just Urmi politics which it's not the case here. Boring and most importantly not to the December 2023 updates. Let John and Steve come with their knowledge and experience about the subject: December 2023 real estate. That's a big minus getting involved the politics way toooo much. A little bit makes sense. To talk over 30 minutes about politics it's ridiculous, as this is not a 100% politics show. It's part of the real estate business, but you can't talk from 47 minutes podcast in total 30 minutes about politics. Really bad 👎 😕 😪
rate cut in March ? hahaha this guy will never get it.
Just zoning makes all the difference. Montreal with a lot more loose zoning is so much cheaper than Toronto and Vancouver which interestingly is ignored in all the discussion. There is a small mention about low interest rate and things go mum. Full of snotty comments by Desi Karen throughout the time.
For the life of me I don't know why anyone would move to Vancouver or Toronto at this moment in history. Both of those cities are grotesquely over-priced and expensive. Why they continue to grow is something I don't understand.
Generally it seems that Canada has maneuvered itself so far behind the 8 ball now, that I don't think general prosperity will ever return to the masses of people here. Canada is letting in way too many newcomers of all kinds, and every party wants that to continue. Why? because the government is a ponzi scheme and they cannot let it collapse. It's very depressing what Canadians have done to themselves.