Antarctica might raise sea levels more than we thought
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- Опубліковано 21 лип 2024
- The West Antarctic is currently chucking a load of ice into the ocean, adding rapidly to sea levels.
And now, three new scientific studies have shown that the ice sheets may be more sensitive to warming than previously thought. These new findings could revise our sea level rise estimates upwards.
I spoke to Dr Alex Bradley, who was involved in two of these new studies, about what this means, and why it doesn’t mean we should give up on climate action. Speaking of which...
*What can I do?*
Here are some ideas:
www.theguardian.com/environme...
www.imperial.ac.uk/stories/cl...
climate.leeds.ac.uk/here-are-...
www.bbc.com/future/article/20...
www.ucl.ac.uk/climate-action-...
Watch the full interview with Dr Bradley here: / 107468701
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Contents:
00:00 - Intro
00:32 - Sea level rise
01:51 - West Antarctica
03:09 - Processes
05:39 - Ice sheet models
06:33 - Thwaites
08:50 - Tipping points
10:31 - Our actions still matter
#Antarctic #ClimateChange
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Thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell, Gary Stark, Sergiu Coroi & Lucien Mansell. Join them here: / dr_gilbz
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References
Rignot et al. (2024) www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073...
Bett et al. (2024) tc.copernicus.org/articles/18...
Bradley & Hewitt (2024) www.nature.com/articles/s4156...
Slater et al. (2020) www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Siegert et al. (2020) www.sciencedirect.com/science...
science.feedback.org/sea-leve...
www.science.org/content/artic...
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Contains AI generated audio - Наука та технологія
If you want to hear more from Dr Alex Bradley, head on over to my patreon, where you can watch the full interview for free: www.patreon.com/posts/107468701
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You must make sure no one is violating The ENMOD Treaty.
@DrGilbz Stop already!!!! Lies! Biggest scam ever perpetrated on humans!!!!@
Glad people are looking at the WAIS. Just looking at past interglacials, I'd say odds are good that it will collapse...eventually. But blaming it on "emissions" when it's collapsed in the past without "emissions" is absurd.
Having researched this issue for a number of years while researching gas physics, let me throw this at you.
Our solar system has a couple of excellent planet-sized gas physics experiments floating around we can refer to. One of them is called Venus.
Now Earth has a 1bar surface pressure and an atmosphere with .04% CO2. Venus has an atmosphere with 96.5% CO2 and at 49.5km in altitude, it has an atmospheric pressure of 1bar. The temperature you find there is 151F or 66C.
If we moved Earth .72 AU from the sun, what would its temperature be where air pressure is 1bar?
There is a nice Planetary Temperature Calculator at the Indiana University website. Just move the default Earth-like planet to .72 AU and calculate. Let me know what you find out.
If ice sits in a basin and melts, how much more water will the basin hold?
@@therealdesidaru If ice sits on a ledge above a basin and drains into it as it melts, by how much will the water level in the basin rise?
9am and 80F in Rome GA. Vegetable crops temporarily shut down (stomata close) when temps reach about 85…this used to be in afternoon even late afternoon…now it’s at 9am. That is 6+ hours/day of lost production time.
It is already happening but no one is calling it…all we hear about from every climate scientist is SLR and glacier melt
Our crops will stop growing enough to feed us before we notice that inch of rise
Yes, fellow athiest, sea level rise is the least of our worries!
Alumimet partial shades should be tried as a small scale experiment to lower temperatures and provide some light at noon but much more early and later if designed so
I’ve noticed the declining quality of store bought fruit and vegetables over the past few years. Quite often, the produce is already beginning to rot on the store shelves and if not, it spoils within a day of purchasing it.
I agree that the negative consequences of a warming world is already having on agriculture is not getting the attention it deserves.
35 C in north Atlanta 😊
I'm outside of Augusta and we have had catastrophic crop losses, field after field of dead plants 😢
Sadly, no matter what warnings are issued, how dire the science or whether it is just sane/ethical to protect the environment (for its own sake), I see little to no progress being made. For decades some people have been trying to create a more sustainable society, but political/corporate forces have undermined most of these efforts.
@truthisfree7297 The problem is that when the standard CC models are projected in the future, they don't always predict well what is going to happen. Perhaps one of the most (in)famous cases is the amount of ice in the Arctic.
A scientific model that doesn't make right predictions is not a scientific model. It has simply been "falsified " and needs to be revised or dismissed.
When high-profile scientists appear in the media announcing dramatic predictions that don't happen, it , naturally, causes a discredit for that science branch. This excessive love for making dramatic public announcements is an error committed by a number of scientists in CC. They are guilty of the skepticism of many people, it is not the people's culprit.
And politicians have avoided helpful discussions. Turned it into a cult.
@@RichardHardy-ce1sw Denial is the only "cult" here.
So called progress is what got us in this mess in the first place! Mother Earth was never meant to sustain 8 + billion apex predators!!!!
Who gave you the entitlement of survival? Clearly, we have arrived in a cul de sac...
Thanks for the update. We're very lucky to have more researchers than ever committed to understanding all the changes that are coming.
@@ts-900 Leonard Nimoy and Ronald Reagan?
@@ts-900 Leonard Nimoy and Ronald Reagan were actors in science fiction stories. Most adults understand how to distinguish fiction from fact.
However, you are echoing an idea at the heart of Science: "Nullius in verba." (Take no one's word for anything.)
See, we don't trust the people. We examine the facts. Like that Beryl is chewing up lives and property a month earlier than comparable hurricanes through history, because the seas are so warm, because there's so much CO2 in the air, because of fossil trade activities.
@@ts-900 Actors deal in fiction, though. In 1965, Revelle, Keeling, Broeckner and Smagorinsky had warned of global warming from CO2, and by 1972 scientists overwhelmingly were convinced by the mountains of evidence. Nullius in verba. Check the math.
@@bartroberts1514 Lord Monckton did check the math, and found it to be quite innacurate.
@@nicholasbarchak6860 Lord Monckton, Knight of Malta, got censured by the Pope for defying Laudate I & II. Monckton's patron, Archbishop Vigano, has been excommunicated.
When the AMOC further weakens or even stops, more energy (heat) will resides in the southern hemisphere and the melting we see at the moment is just a child’s party to what will happen then. That the AMOC will stop is almost a given.
well said.
Ughhhhh...yeah.....ummmmm....we are kind of gonna need you to move all your stuff to higher land, if you want to keep it. Ya see... we miscalculated how much the ice would melt...yea....so...better pack up and uproot everything in your life and expect to live a little less large...maybe, probably, ...... a lot less large.
Actually, the politicians miscalculated. Many of us knew this would happen. No one listened to us. This goes all the way back to G.W.Bush's first year in the Whitehouse. NOAA told them all about it, but Big Oil prevailed.
me? - I just want a large house that FLOATS!!!
Two stats to remember:
1). We burn 100,000,000+ barrels of oil each day.
2). If all the ice melts, 66 metres sea level rise.
@@user-hq2wy1mt3k that's the US, how about China?
@@JSJS-vi5fs You think China doesn't have a coast?
China's solar installations tower over US solar by a dozen times.
@@JSJS-vi5fs Same. But China's doing more about it, faster.
@@JSJS-vi5fs 66 meters equals 216 ft
It's meteric, not china.
@@bartroberts1514 by opening 2 coal mines a week?
No matter what the prognosis, the Northern Hemisphere continues to devastate the world’s environment.
Sure.
But the world seeks the Norths inventions.
Seems pretty hypocritical to me
Climate change has progressed faster than expected so far, and I'm operating on the assumption that that pattern will continue.
@@beth8775 agree. Change is slow. Political will is limited. Progress to act is stunted by denial and disinformation.
We are moving to the south of Chile to avoid climate change in South Florida where we are only 16 ft above sea level. It has been said that only a few more feet of sea level rise and the water sources will be inundated with saltwater.
GOOD FOR FL.
i wonder how they managed to make a model that says that it will not tip. we know it is melting faster every year and we have no realistic way to stop that. so for all intents and purposes it can be considered tipped today. they must have gone pretty insane into the carbon-removal dial and cranked it up to 11. rofl
That's just one tip. The human race already tipped past stopping global warming a long time ago.
Exactly. Which is why the IPCC’s RCP projections aren’t worth the paper they’re written on (aside from RCP 8.5). All of the lower pathways incorporate staggering amounts of negative emissions technology that is nowhere near the scale it would need to be to have any difference - especially since emissions are still rising globally.
Wasn't it rather that they concluded it hasn't tipped yet? While the other paper says it has?
@@tvuser9529 There are something like 20 tipping points, and a positive feedback relationship between them, along the thermal gradient.
Because they are paid to create the report that facilitates the narcissistic sociopathic social engineering networking networks manipulation of perceptions.
Our education systems are routinely systematically infiltrated and compromised by narcissistic sociopathic social engineering networks facilitating narcissistic sociopathic sociopolitical and economic exploitation agendas and purposes related to facilitating hierarchical social structures facilitating hegemonic control systems.
Our education systems are paper pedigree systems based upon social connections and economic influence agendas...
The so called modern education systems are typically based upon the Prussian education model which was designed to create obedient soldiers and workers.
Corruption culture practices cronyism and nepotism in order to maintain the status quo.
Corruption facilitates Cronyism and Nepotism.
Nepotism and Cronyism increases Incompetence.
Facilitating more Corruption and Incompetence.
There are competent people who honesty seek the truth and attempt to speak the truth...
But there are also narcissistic sociopathic social engineering networking networks that seek to gaslight everyone in order to facilitate getting anything and everything that they can.
ive been following all the research and rapid sea level rise seems to be right around the corner with very few of the ruling class taking it seriously.
It's already under way.
I believe 12 to 20 inches within 20 years.
Rapid sea level rise has been right around the corner for all of my adult life I'm pushing 53.
And statistics Joe that we average 1 ft per 100 years of sea level rise!
One must not forget that we are still currently in an ice age it will eventually know whether humans are here or not!!!!
Great content! Thanks for also giving a stage to fellow scientists; I really appreciate the visuals!🐧
Of course things are accelerating.
The future has to be a vacuum
The more it goes, the more everything sux 😁
Gee!…..never saw that coming!🤔I live near the coast in Orange County, CA. My girlfriend and I walk the stretch in Capistrano Beach almost daily. It’s a war of attrition but the sea will most certainly win. I’ve seen parks and parking lots succumb to the tides.
My point is: this has been happening for a long time.
And here in america we could very well be stuck with the "Drill, Baby, Drill!" president... Arctic Wildlife Refuge gone, all along the Pacific and Atlantic oceans littered with oil derricks... and imagine the fossil fuels in our precious air! Yikes!
@@ts-900 I bought a used Tesla! Every little bit helps....
Not if we all vote. VOTE 2024!
Don't worry. The heat will kill everybody, or starve everyone, well before we have to live in that mess you're talking about. We're good!
There in America you already have the DrillBabyDrill president. No one has expanded fossil extraction in the US faster than the current administration, which exceeded both the previous administrations, which three combined far exceeded all other administrations combined cumulatively.
None of your politicians is doing what's needed. None are even on the Roadmap of Project Drawdown's Climate Solutions 101. None are cutting 2% of today's level of fossil trade licenses per month down toward zero by 2030, the minimum action needed.
And Sea Level Rise, flagship though it is, is like 40th from the top of the outcomes that will hurt you, hurt your economy, crush your options and inflame your miseries. Storm surge is worse. Beryl is the flagship of the direction of hurricanes, which will become year-round on every coast every two years by 2080 at latest. Heat will exceed habitable level in a third of populated areas by 2060 for days at a time annually. Crops won't tolerate the climate by 2040, with 1000% food price inflation above 2020 levels by then, for $36/loaf bread if you can get it.
I don’t mean to rain on your parade however, the USA has produced a record amount of fossil energy under the Biden Administration.
I’m not condoning the Orange 🤡, just stating that we are already the leading producer of carbon energy globally.
I have no idea how you ended up on my Recommended page, but I'm glad you did. This is a great piece of content.
Ahhh, sometimes the algorithm delivers eh. Thanks for being here :)
The models don't incorporate these under ice effects, they also don't include increasing methane levels and methane releases due to tundra melting. Given the models are conservative to begin with - getting funding requires not being "too radical" - we are finding the models used by the IPCC all fall short of predicting the actual changes we have been experiencing. Look up "Atmospheric Energy Imbalance: Global Warming in the Pipeline" Oxford University Press: Only half the heat entering is escaping. The amount retained is increasing exponentially. The amount retained doubled in the 18 years of direct measurement via satellite. Follow what Dr. James Hansen, one of the authors, is saying about this. Our situation is worse than most policy makers and many scientists realize. Much worse. To paraphrase Hansen, "It's hot. It will be hotter. Not everyone sees this yet. They will."
Thanks for this report. I think we all continue to underestimate the changes happening due to climate change. I’m glad so many climate scientists are doing this important work.
Ciao, Doc! Interesting and informative without your customary positivism...! We are hilariously going to pretty much carry on as usual with our lives, then act all surprised when it's too obvious to ignore. An intelligent six year old, given these facts would conclude we're done for. Still.... Sayonara...! ; )
According to ex President Donald J. Trump , the increase in the water levels will result in more beachfront property 🤭.
But, if sea level rises, ships will sink dear Donald
That's OK, the oil will float to the top, and we can pay big coorporations to salvage it.
Always looking at the bright orange side in the mirror.
& more instantaneous house boats! What a genius!
@@Robert-ts5ze but the sharks...
Thanks for another interesting update. Frightening to hear and to see our ignorance
Our 'planned" ignorance
I realized that in 2012. And #ExxonKnew in the 1970's
I've been saying this for over ten years now. Even then, there was so much uncertainty in the models. Where we are, we can see it all going down, and it is happening very fast. People have been raising docks and piers out of necessity, and many are starting to see depreciation on waterfront homes below a certain height and distance from the water. Last winter, we had 3 one hundred year storms within 2 months of each other. This is the beginning? I think we might be in trouble.
NOAA has for decades had this information in charts going hundreds of thousands of years. There are warming trends to compare this to that prove we did it.
All these discussions of how bad is it, are being used to say we don't know it is bad.
@nat9909 the world has yet to realize that banks have many of their loans secured with property as collateral. Whether that property is beach front property, the collateral is worthless.
Please don't say that we have a problem. What we have is a cataclysm. There's a difference.
And I haven't justified that statement in any way, I realize. But take my word for it. I've been studying this issue full time for months while writing a chapter for a book on tipping points... it's a different order of bad news than most anyone realizes... and for reasons that people have never yet even considered...
Hi, nice explanation. That periodic motion due to tides makes me think of of fatigue stress in the ice... It's very difficult to explain to people that, when a glacier is resting on the seafloor, you don't need all the ice to melt to get the final effect, it's enough that it starts to float instead of being in contact with the seafloor. Archimedes' principle takes care of the rest.
Minor suggestion for improvement: at 3:23 the lighting is very harsh. Either try to avoid shooting in the mid hours of the day, or use a reflector on the opposite side of the sun, so that shadows are brightened up and then all the scene can be dimmed a bit down. Also, I don't know if the lens was dirty or not well focused, it seems to me there is a lack of microcontrast.
Well, try shooting on an ice sheet.
Tidal movement of the shelf looks like a sverdrup scale pump. Maddening that our climate models are so uneven - sophisticated models of the atmosphere, almost simplistic models of the cryosphere, oceans, biosphere.
At least we yeeted the Tories., eh kids ?
Yeah, Starmer is going to rescue the world… 🎉
@@achenarmyst2156 French too booted the rrrriiight!!!
shared on my facebook wall, thanks for what you do
Awesome, thanks for sharing!
As the grounding line retreats it allows more surface area of grounding line to open up. Like a single stream that is blocked and behind that blockage the stream branches off in several directions that remain dry until the blockage is removed. Similarly works like that under Thwaites glacier. It's fascinating.
Like ice in a drink glass, it melts from the bottom and the sides as well as the top.
Oh, it's worse than that. Ice, except very close to its triple point, expands when warmed just like every material. That warming scaled over the size of an ice sheet makes it ripple and crack like popcorn, expanding crevasses. While that pushes about 0.04% of Arctic ice outward from the centroid on land, it also weakens the ice so gravity pushes many times as much mass out onto the sea, like a slow motion splatter. These processes interact with the ones in the video (and other mechanisms), so Physics hates us.
@@bartroberts1514 Imagine what it sounds like if you lay on top of an expanding glacier and close your eyes. It would be horrifying.
I look at Antarctica all the time and it is melting faster and faster. I can't believe what it looked like today! The difference between today and 2 months ago is dramatic. I've been looking for years and the changes aren't usually this noticeable.
We are shopping ourselves to death.
I got a coupon.
I so appreciate your videos. Please keep it up.
Thanks for an important update Presented in a suitable envelope
Straight and honest🤔
Maybe making the central valley of California an inland sea would make for a nice Mediterranean climate.
Treat your life support system as an open sewer & reap what you sow!!!
Physics question: the last great melt took ~8,000 years to raise sea levels 120m, between 19,000-11,000 years ago.
We're warming twenty times faster now than then due to fossil emissions.
Do you agree that means:
a) the 66m-80m of potential SLR this time
b) will happen in about 400 years,
c) at a pace of about 20 cm per year on average,
d) at a cost of ~$1 Trillion USD per cm?
Great video, very timely too with the BAS et al study published today on the evolution of the WAIS. That taken with the biological evidence that suggests it melted away in the Eemian show there is a lot of melting to come, but as you rightly say, we can control the pace, every tonne of CO2 counts.
It doesn’t appear there’s anything we can do to stop 3 degree rise in temperature, Chinese government has accepted that already.
@@raybod1775Yep. Sadly, I’d agree. Considering how we keep finding that warming is happening faster than expected, and still no action to reduce the rate, 3 °C might be a very conservative estimate for 2100.
We don't have the political leaders or governmental systems capable of coping with this problem. They are already paralysed by denial. The worse things get, the more ineffectual they will become. This analysis is not plucked out of the air but is based on numerous historical precedents.
Political leaders just reflect their societies. Ignorant and selfish politicians lead ignorant and selfish people.
@@achenarmyst2156 That being the case, nature may have decided that we don't deserve to survive
The worse it gets the more likely the leaders will be forcefully replaced by more effectual leadership.
By the time sea rise becomes of real concern our habitats will be destroyed by extreme heat.
I read that West Antarctica ice sheet collapsed 10-12,000 years ago (Nat Geo. 2017 - "West Antarctic Ice Sheet Seems Good at Collapsing".) Is there any current research about the mechanics of that collapse that will help us understand what may happen in the future?
It's really the worst case scenario.
Look up Marine Ice Cliff Instability. Now that's worst case!
One additional point I don’t see addressed too often; when a point force load is removed from one part of the planet’s surface ( eg. lots of ice) , then the land under it rises, which also will other land masses around the world. So, even though I’ve read the calculation that if/when all the Antarctic ice melts, sea level will rise approx 200’ (+/- 60m) it may actually seem higher as the land beneath us sinks. Einstein expressed some concern that the ice might not be evenly distributed on the South Pole, which might also cause some planetary “wobble” to its rotation. Minor on a planetary scale, but perhaps major on a human scale. Fault lines could be more active and dormant volcanoes might erupt. Hard to know without better models.
Merci.
Any news of the bedrock uplift ?
I wonder how this isostatic rebound of the mantle beneath unloading glaciers is now closely tracked and included in the models.
There are already estimates and numbers out there. I just did a quickie Brave search.
Don't say Volcano! Read, "Red Mars."
So, not more than is possible in unchecked warming, but faster? Is it about 60m sea level rise left to rise in a glacial minimum (~180m in between min and max)?
I can barely recall any new scientific finding that says polar ice loss is not as bad as we thought, and more than I can remember that says it is worse. Cry for the cryosphere!
I have a question (or two).
Are the ice sheets melting from above (due to warmer air temperatures) or below, due to warmer sea temperatures.
I guess the answer is both, but what is the relationship. Knowing that helps decide what to do next ( do we focus on cooling air, water or both).
Should have waited longer, much of this was answered later in the video. 😊
Also depends on where - west Antarctica is mainly melting from below, but Antarctic peninsula (and Greenland) are mostly melting from above
A superb presentation that I will now share.
i feel like most tipping points have been reached in the sense that we can't stop them from being reached. for example, does it matter if the glacier is currently tipped, if it will inevitably do so? does it matter if we have now passed 1.5, if we are expecting 2, 3 or 4 degrees of warming? the tipping points for the tipping points have been reached.
Even 4 degrees is better than 7. Every bit matters.
@@alanj9978 it doesn't matter if we can't stop it from going to 7 once it hits 4. or if we're already dead. the warming is still getting faster and faster and we are on track for the worst case scenarios on every climate model. the fires and hurricanes, the floods, the hunger, the thirst; it's all just getting started dear. "some of us will probably survive" is a more accurate statement than every bit matters.
The manner in how it's tipped is tremendously important. It's not a simple binary of tipped/not. The more violently these thresholds are surpassed, the more chaos will ensue.
@@philipm3173 maybe, they seem to imply it is more of a domino effect with the other glaciers: once the tipping happens the whole thing goes.
@@meurtri9312 the "whole thing" would be a sizable amount of a portion of the west Antarctic ice sheet, by no means is the entirety of the icecap in imminent danger of keeling into the sea.
What about subduction of sea floors due to extra weight, it happens with glaciation on land.
Earthquake frequency is said to potentially increase due to it. Not sure what the data suggests yet. But this is due to decreased ice weight, not subduction per se.
THANKS ,great info / keep it up - things are changing🌐🏞🌏🗺
thank you for the update, great content
Thank you.
A great deal of the ice shelf isn't floating. It's cantilevered by the grounded ice. That's why they find wide cracks on the bottom of the ice sheets a long way from the grounded ice. Thus, when this part of the ice sheet melts, it does add to the sea level
@@nobody687 That’s a really good point. Only ice that has completely detached should be considered as floating. While still attached, of course it has an ability to resist floating. Also, many people don’t even consider that calving of icebergs just makes way for more ice to flow faster into the sea, and that definitely adds to sea level rise.
@@simontillson482 your right
@@nobody687 Correct! And when grounded ice breaks off or suddenly slides into the water, the water level rises.
@brianferguson7840 gravitational pull. has a lot to do with such things. Plus subsidence of the sea floor due to added weight. As well as increased intrusion into the water table and plate boundaries. If you go to islands like the Maldives and soma , the sea level has risen significantly. It doesn't cause a rise everywhere. It takes time . There are many factors that cause the difference . Of course, I'm only making educated quesses. I think the greatest danger is an increase in volcanic and earthquake activity due to the added pressure from the melt water. Billions of tons have to have an effect on something. It's a balance thing right ?,
Have conversation with Geologist about tectonic plates and ice melt. Vey interstation conversation. The Geologist also knew about the Ice tectonic plate energy release from land uplift and the feal world wide changes and the dangers coming.
yeah could be bad
Thanks Gilbz!
always good idea to slow down the warming, but also remember to not move around. we can not keep millions of people fed when they move inland or the food production disappear.
there is going to be a lot of sacrificed coming in out future. if we make them ourselves is is better. survival instinct and selfishness is our worst enemy.
When I was a child I was told about the concept of sea-level and that the city where I live is 1100 feet or so above sea level. Do we go forward with the number when I was a child or is there an updating of that measurement? Seems like it would have to be. 😮😮😮😮😮😮
First time I've seen a video if this kind where the presenter points out at the end, "sea level rise is not the most immediate threat to most communities; it's the deadly floods, heatwaves, droughts, storms, and wildfires that will kill people." Oh so true. The deadly impacts of climate change are already unfolding here and now.
isostatic rebounding and subduction might mean it may not as extreme as people think but would trigger earthquakes and volcanic activity which could be worse maybe this is what has caused cycling in the past from volcanic activity
Atmospheric rivers...
Heat domes...
Wet bulb conditions...
Tectonic uplifting effects due to the ice mass in Antarctica and Greenland facilitating increasing volcanic activities as well as tsunamis, earthquakes, rifting events, landslides and other instabilities...
The atmosphere is holding far more moisture with each fraction of a degree of temperature than most people recognize.
It is now capable of dropping three feet or one meter of rain in relatively short period time in places where 1/3 of that was previously a rare once in long time event.
The climate instabilities are not likely to remain in a linear pattern based upon our past understanding of the past conditions.
But rather leap into a nonlinear progression of energy transfers and new cycles which we can’t imagine basing the outcomes on linear patterns of the past stable conditions.
Once the methane release from the taiga and permafrost regions becomes a exponential release pattern of causality... the methane hiccups are going to create whole new systems.
The geological records show strange patterns such as the Caribbean storms if i recall correctly approximately 40,000 years ago that rolled house sized boulders about in huge storms and tsunami sized waves...
Curiously perhaps totally unrelated or perhaps related...
Wooly mammoths have been discovered that where eating spring flowers and they were “flash frozen”... so that the flowers scents were experienced by the researchers who dissected the mammoth...
Unfortunately as far as I know... there is not enough information to facilitate understanding what was happening....
Those events could be separated by a thousand years or more...
Or they could be within a unrecognized mega methane hiccup period of twenty eight to say a hundred twelve year period...
But super storms similar to the “Red Spot” on Jupiter might be a thing...
With a atmospheric thermal inversion event that creates a edge of space to the surface of the northern and southern poles and latitudes... inducing a Ice Age as a result of the warming... probably after the methane hiccups create a hot house swampy environment event...
With the 28 year cycle of methane to carbon dioxide creating a triggering event of some kind.
The increases in volcanic activity might provide some cooling effects giving us more time...
But might create a different environment entirely opening the door to something totally unexpected.
Even the tilt and rotation of the Earth could be affected... as the spinning ball is destabilized by the changing positions of masses that have been stable for millennia.
Thank you for your work
I know a lot about this -
It’s been hard living knowing that I couldn’t change anyone’s and corporations any governments to care
1 cm SLR = 7 m land loss on sandy shores via coastal erosion (depending on slope) excluding storm surge.
Already reports of large-scale coastal erosion in France & UK amounting to billions in property damage & loss. It's estimated that the UK could lose millions of houses along its vast coastline. The UK (like many other countries) already has a housing crisis - it won't be able to afford to keep up with new demand, let alone replace homes lost due to coastal erosion (it's a complex issue oversimplified in this example). Much critical infrastructure is also located along coastlines - it will cost billions to defend, move or replace!
Another impact of SLR never discussed is rising water tables near the coast - not good for various infrastructure. MORE cost to tax payers already experiencing cost of living challenges.
Also, if there's an overuse of ground water extraction in coastal areas (eg due to drought) then salt water intrusion of aquifers occurs - this has very serious health impacts especially for women & children. Eventually these water sources can no longer by used. Loss of agri farmland also occurs (or salt water tolerant crops have to be planted).
SLR is a perfect example of enviro change resulting in biodiversity loss, economic loss & damage, awa social impacts & distress (eg many people becoming homeless, community fragmentation, poverty (if uninsured) & decreasing quality of life etc).
Climate change isn't just about extreme weather. Climate change not only causes enviro damage (very few people care about this), but it impacts the economy in many subtle & not so subtle ways awa social cohesion & quality of life, and will require billions in defence & adaptation (if still possible) that would otherwise be allocated to critical social support services (such as food security, cities, health, education & infrastructure etc).
Nature is forgiving up to a point and then it collapses - "fixing" it becomes extremely difficult & expensive and can take decades even centuries (there's no CTRL-Z for the enviro).
Thank you for your wise and true comment.
Be safe.
We will witness some terrible things very soon and these events that seek separate will converge in what I call " the worst times ever in the history of the world or ever"
The thing that struck me as really important was the bit about tides lifting the ice sheets and letting warmer water get further under them. I seems to me that if you take a tide now, and it lets warm water in to what ever distance it does at the moment and this causes melting you are also seeing the next tide becoming that much higher and then lifting the ice even more.
The more water you have the larger the tides right? So a larger tide causes deeper intrusion of warm water leading to more melting which leads to more water causing bigger tidal range and so on, over and over until there's no more ice to lift...
Does that make sense? Because it seems to me that this process would just accelerate itself.
no mention of crop failures or wars?
It will all converge soon.
Then, the people responsible for the catastrophic events will step away.
Thanks for the factual informations.
Besides the effect of the tide going up and down twice each day, pumping the deep salty water in and blowing water out of the cavity under the ice, there is possibly another effect. As this slightly warmer, salty water melts the fresh water ice, the mix is lighter than the circumpolar deep salty water. It would be expected to flow upward along the ice ceiling. The only way this could happen if if it caused more salty water to flow under the ice.
My weekly dose of climate "optimism". Thnx for great content, it is wonderful how you present most recent climate science!
So the situation is much worse than that outlined by Kaitlin Norton's findings as discussed in a previous video in December (ish)
I started learning about this in the late 1990’s -
We are at Tipping Points -
Thanks for the update on this. Lots of denial out there that still hasn't woken up yet.
I’m selling g a home on the Texas Gulf Coast. A tiny town in the Corpus Christi Bay. Now moving back to my hometown San Antonio. It’s gonna be hot but at least I won’t be under water.
So it is like breathing, the water under the floating ice is changed partially and sure also not refilled with colder water also.
I didn't think about that yet also, as I have to much access to tiding water,
but so also the rising sea level might speed up loosing grounded ice from contact the ground.
Do we have centuries under our current socioeconomic system? I wonder how many centuries our circumstances will persist.
There is another very important paper titled "Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial".
It is saying that current warming will with certainty melt the wais.
Sea level rise is the last thing to worry about.
I think we are going to have to start looking a the water aspect more since all the effects are going to be related to water either to little or to much. The biggest problem I see is with the AMOC and water evaporation trapping heat as well as the South American Anomaly parked over the southern region and its ability to create El Nino or La Niña patterns. I've been wondering if something similar to a dehumidifier technology might pull heat and carbon out of the atmosphere? I pull a cup of water out of my living room with a cheap model.
But at the point where the ice starts floating, it stops to be relevant for sealevel rise? Only the part that melts as long as the ice sits on the sea bed matters, the floating ice doesn’t increase the sea level when it melts?
If it breaks away then it can float to warmer areas and melt.
@@NoidoDev Yes, but if floating ice melts, the water level doesn’t change. Just throw some ice into a glass with water and see for Yourself. As soon as ice starts floating, melting it stops being relevant for the sea level.
This is an alarming increase in predicted sea level rise. But, I would need to see which computer model the THIRD paper is using as if it is the same software there may be a bias. Biases have been seen in the past, first with one satellites output, then another. Because of that, I would like to see a paper written by an entirely new team, using different software.
@DrGilbz, not bad at all... however I still maintain that you haven't *begun* this conversation unless you state the following: the transient response of a positive feedback cycle (aka tipped tipping point) in feedback control theory is an *exponential function of time*. It's an avalanche. An arbitrarily small perturbation that triggers such an avalanche can lead to an arbitrarily large change in the state of the system in question. The gain in some sense in terms of d[momentum]/d[energy expended] trends towards oo...
That's for starters. The second thing I would add is that "the conversation about climate change begins and ends with feedback cycles. Nothing else is even relevant in comparison". If people understand feedback cycles, they understand the implications of climate change and vice-versa. It's the side-effects of our actions that trigger other side effects that trigger yet more side-effects that will rule our destiny, so to speak.
I'm writing a chapter for a book right now (with professors from the U.K. as a matter of fact...). I've done quite a lot of reading on these topics by now, and many other topics that 99% of humans would fail to associate with climate change... Stuff like pollution, biodiversity loss, changes to the Surface Micro Layer, coral health, forest fires, ground water extraction, invasive insects, the urban heat island affect, changes that we're having on the water cycle, the AMOC of course, and many other kinds of feedbacks that cross between the human sphere and the physical one. People, including many an IPCC scientist are still looking at the world through a straw. And that is why decade upon decade upon decade our best-case scenario now looks worse than the worst case scenario that was being predicted 10 years ago. We're utterly failing to generate 0 mean error estimates. Our innovations sequence is pink. We have failed to generate a minimum variance unbiased estimator. Our error residuals are correlated. I can say it in 10 different ways... but seeing as few people have ever studied stochastics, that probably won't mean much to many of the readers.
"Agriculture is the Achilles Heel of Humanity" says Naomi Klein. Smart woman. Sea level rise is going to wipe out most of the world's rice production which supplies 20% of our calories. Salt water intrusion is having a serious impact on coastal farmland. The wet bulb effect. Extreme precipitation, the insects, ground water depletion... a loss of pollinators... All of these things are going to be impacting our society in serious ways within 20 years. There are currently 634 million people who will be directly impacted by sea level rise... and I am not estimating that'll be come 2100, but more like 2045-2050. I listened to a NASA Goddard scientist say "the sea level rise I began my career thinking would happen by 2100 I now estimate will happen by 2050". We continue to underestimate many, many different factors on all sides... let alone the covariance between these factors. And that'll be devastating.
Sea level rise is going to kill more people than many other factors you mentioned... because it's going to lead people to fight with other people. Scarcity breeds aggression, yeah? Between the wet bulb effect and sea level rise I anticipate ~2 billion people in flight by 2040. And there are more feedback cycles in play than I can possibly write about here. I was invited to give a talk at Sunrun, an American residential solar installation company... and I talked for an hour and didn't finish. I would need many hours even to cover the surface level content. People are *radically* underestimating how bad things can get and how fast. We are linear minded beings that deal incredibly poorly with exponential time phenomena. That goes for the Japanese at the end of WWII who said "we're not afraid of any new fangled bomb, it's an empty threat". It goes for president Trump when he eliminated the pandemic response dept of the US government. It goes for how we content with forest fires. It applies to all the spenders out there who rack up debts on credit cards they can't pay off, and therefore take out a 2nd credit card to try to pay off the first, which just compounds the problem. And it goes for people's inability to anticipate the massive effects technology has had... everything from trains, combustion engines, microchips, lasers, digital cameras, the internet, AI technology, etc... People don't understand that when you use technological outputs as inputs to make more technology (e.g. CAD software, programming languages, wikipedia, continuous integration tools, etc...) that is an exponential growth process. It's a process that has 'babies' in some sense where those babies grow up to have more babies... and things keep replicating from there.
Which reminds me of how serious it is that we have 8 billion people. According to the environmentalist Bill McKibben, if we all want to live the kind of lifestyles that people live in the U.K., let alone the U.S., then there are resources for 680 million people to live on this planet in that fashion. We currently have 12x more people than that, and we're going to have 9.7 billion people by 2080 a recent student suggested (except that study is making the same massive extrapolation errors that everyone else is. Our society is going to come flying off its rocker by 2045... because there are more feedback effects in play here than 99.99999% of the world has thought about before).
I should mention that McKibben said "if we lose the U.S. wheat crop for 1 year from freak weather events (or nasty bacteria, or whatever...), that's a national disaster. If we lose it for 2 years in a row, that's a recipe for WW3".
I'll conclude this comment with the following observation: forget about what happens when there's no more food on the shelves. That's not actually the weak link. Even if the prices of food merely triple, that in and of itself will end our civilization. Because the have nots will go to war with the haves. In the US 20% of the population spends > 33% of their income on food. In Kenya it's like 56% of the population that spends more than 33% of its income on food. If food prices triple, we're talking about 20% or 30% of 8 billion people who are going hungry, and they won't be happy about it. Meanwhile, we live in a world where thousands of farmers feed billions of people. A single farmer can feed 10 million people/year. And that's why we have so many people living in cities. So guess what happens if riots break out and everyone is fighting over food? It means people aren't working and society breaks down. And it means supply lines fail and replacement parts aren't being made and there's no ability to keep our technological base well oiled and maintained. We live in a world where it takes the concerted efforts of many millions of people to e.g. create microchips that go in the computers that run tractors... If you think about the rubber, steel, oil, aluminum, phosphorous, urea, the battery technology, the GPS technology, materials for sensors and displays, etc, etc... there's a pyramid there of millions of people who must *collaborate* in order for these machines to keep running. We can't be collaborating if we're busy fighting... or if there are hordes of 100 million refugees on every side of every border.
And btw, if terrorists are occupying the Suez canal, and drought is impacting the Panama canal... we are getting pushed higher and higher up a ladder of technological and fossil fueled dependence from which there's no easy way down. If supply lines aren't running, we have issues. If people aren't being fed, we have something far worse than WWIII. We have complete mayhem 28 days later style.
The roman empire lasted for 500 years. How long did it take to tear down the city of Rome in the end? 5 days. That's nonlinearity for you. And it's time that the world population learns to adopt mental models that are appropriate for our times.
I might also throw in a little tidbit of information such as e.g. we have sunk 500e21 joules in the world's oceans... This comes directly from an IPCC report. If that number doesn't mean anything to you, you can put it in terms of e.g. 119 million 1 megaton hydrogen bombs of heat. And the 100 million barrels of oil we burn per day have the energy equivalent of 15 Hiroshima sized nuclear bombs exploding every second of every day, year in ... year out. 91% of that energy goes into the ocean, 4% into ice, 4% into the land and just 1% into the atmosphere.
So once again, if you're trying to assess how much global warming there has been by how our air temperature feels, you're missing 99% of the story! Literally!
P.S. If anyone is wondering, I have a ph.d. in feedback control theory, statistical inference and the estimation of stochastic processes... as well as operations research, aka combinatorial optimization problems. And I've been studying this topic intensively this year in particular... full-time.
Dr. When changes are occurring in one direction, it should be taken as a rule that there will always be unknown unknowns that also operate in that direction. So i expected you video and expect more like these.
Every scientist knows "unknown unknowns" in such a context.
Science has therefore behaved quite **strangely** -
They have never announced that they calculate the _outermost edge of the risk !!_
"Well below 2.0K" has been understood in the world as 'safe' - what in common sense surely means -> with a safety *margin*
You understand - the statistical result for safety ("Well below 2.0K") should have been provided with an error bar of 0.5K
- in the name of CUDOS and the "unknown unknowns"
Imagine Paris 2015: "Well below 1.5K..."
"....would be safe, folks. But frankly that's not achievable anymore. Fasten seat belts and stay together"
unknowable: might have caused ww3 in 2016
Thanks!
Thank you!
@@DrGilbz You betcha! Thanks for the work you do! It's important.
Well, I know I'm getting out of Florida soon!
I already left Tampa.
I live in N Carolina and can't believe how much I saved since being here.
When looking at real estate try to purchase that which is above 60 meters. Even that might be beach front or flooded at high tide.
It's not rising fast enough... 🤨
Record temps IN areas in BC Canada today
People need to start talking about permafrost thawing. Were screwed even if we stopped fossil fuels today. Photosynthesis stops happening at 47°C/116° F.
@@stephenconsalvo Fuel does not come from dinosaur bones.....
I thing it might well be likely that in 500-1000 years time, the UK will be more of archipelago than one contiguous island with islands around it. 20 metres sea level rise should do that and the last time (geologically 2 million years ago) when temperatures were this high, it was 20 metres or more higher.
Ridiculous, Ice takes up more volume than water. If anything happens, Ocean water levels would go down .
sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/thermal-expansion/
Not how ice works, my dude.
Take a bag of ice cubes, melt it, and then tip it into an ice cream container about three quarters full.
@@DrGilbz Sea level is mean
@@audreydoyle5268 yes it is how it works. I am not your dude , dud.
@@DrGilbz They also said Florida would be 200 feet under water by 2000. I wouldn't put much faith in that,"Data".
the idea that 'climate action' is a possibility is arguably reassuring; - another idea that it is too late is not so reassuring ...I have seen various places at high tide in my dreamscape (a very real place) they are all constantly pounded beyond recognition by each passing high tide........
I think Sea level rise is the absolutely smallest of our climate change problems. Doesn’t affect me at all I think 😛
So what's yours, beef? 🥩
If it affects many of the worlds cities, all of the worlds ports, much of the agricultural land, causes mass migration and vast costs to the economy then I think it will affect you!
@@petewright4640 Cities can build some walls. Besides, it raises slowly.
I don’t understand what the ports will have for an effect. Boats will drift onto land and get stuck?
Agriculture should not be close to the oceans.
@@Campaigner82
A huge amount of agriculture is in river deltas. Especially rice fields seem to be affected. Higher ocean levels might also taint the groundwater in some areas.
Climate restoration aka geoengineering Research ASAP as a backup plan and implementation of low risk safe solutions
There are no safe solutions all reactions have an opposite reaction you put up cooling sulphur you can't stop see ocean shipping emissions they create shade and effect clouds even create clouds.
If you stop the oceans heat up from lack of shade and lack of artificial clouds it's called the aerosol masking effect same heating happened during 911 when we grounded planes. There's something called the meer reflection frame work won't work not enough of the right kind of sand to make the amount of mirrors needed.
So many cities just dropping in the ocean how many more do we need to lose before we do something! lol
It's all lol.
But everyone will not be lol when it happens.
It's coming.
Everything is a joke until its not.
Here in America, geopolitical belief of global warming will reject this study. Investors in insurance markets are listening to these studies and are cancelling policies in areas that are projected to be impacted.
Doesn't matter, the systems of power about power can't change itself.
The planet will fix this without us - literally.
@@phil20_20 Yeah, the planet will be fine, but it is likely we won't.
Sadly it’s probably going to take the full 3 metre rise plus other disasters before we start trying to do anything serious about it 😐
It is alarming but "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!"
We will have more Venice which is a good news, considering that the original one is heavly overcrowded.
Technically, we'll have less Venice, as it is inundated, probably just after it's too hot to live in.
Climate change=pandemics...Less ice on West-Antarctica may tip/tilt the Antarctica landmass? Less pressure on the west side means all of it getting a bit out of balance ???
You've misunderstood.
Much rather have the Antarctic glaciers break off and melt than grow northwards and convert the planet into a snowball.
So?
Project Drawdown's Climate Solutions 101 Roadmap is the best comprehensive response to this crisis, so far; we can do more, faster.
Talk to those people who hire the few dozen people in the few dozen countries who issue licenses for fossil trade; get them to stop by 2030, the first step to solutions.
What do you mean by “talk to them”? Like talking to Putin “please don’t attack Ukraine anymore, it causes a lot of harm”. 🤔
@@achenarmyst2156 Wow. What does "talk" mean?
Do you mind if I lament how lost your generation is, that doesn't have the guts to talk harder?
5 meters (16.4 feet) is enough for most of the world's port cities to have significant problems.
I'd suggest only 1 metre (3.3 feet) of global mean sea level rise is more than enough to disrupt coastal infrastructure and low-lying lands (e.g. Bangladesh & Mekong River delta) around the world.
@@GeoffMiell I'm afraid you're right