Maybe I'm just in a maudlin mood but something about this draft was extremely nostalgic for me - watching LSV draft UB 3-drops reminded me of watching your M10 drafts more than 15 years ago. Thank you so much for the incredible entertainment over the years!
Your math for Tidebinder was way off. If I understood what you were saying, you said there was a 40% chance that you would play against someone with at least one of the two colors it targets, assuming colors are chosen (independently) at random and each deck plays two. However, if that's the case then when a deck chooses its first color it has a 3/5 chance of choosing a color that Tidebinder doesn't target, and then it has a 2/4 chance of choosing a second (different) color that Tidebinder doesn't target. So the chance that decks constructed this way are playing colors that Tidebinder doesn't target is 2/4 * 3/5 = 6/20 = 3/10 = 30%. That means that Tidebinder will have targets 70% of the time, significantly more than 40%.
An alternative way of thinking about this is... Assume that there is an equal distribution of all two colour combinations. If so, there are 3 combinations out of 10 that contain neither red nor green {W/U, W/B, U/B}. Therefore, the odds are 70%
You know they say that all cards are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Merfolk Tidebinder and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another creature, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Cloudfin Raptor to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Cloudfin Raptor KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Merfolk Tidebinder you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Tidebinder, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice
The play at 43:00 was the loosest i‘ve ever seen you make xD He had 2 mana up, you SAID YOURSELF that he probably had a pump-spell and you opted to not ob nixilis the lethal double-striker and countering the pump :D
The math on tidebinder mage I think is a bit rudimentary. Assuming a generally two colour format for simplicity, there are 10 pairs. 4 of those contain red. Three more contain green. So you'll have hits in 7/10 matchups. Obviously 6 of those are partial colour so for those the likelihood you run this out on an early turn to good effect is basically halved (which is where the 40% number comes in). But if you treat it more like a surge card for the lategame then it becomes much more likely you'll get to an advantage from the effect in those cases. It's kind of like the lower bound for chance of hitting is 40% and the upper bound is 70%.
Hey Streamer: you did in the fly statistics while also trying to be entertaining and engaging with an active gameplay scenario. How dare you get it wrong?!? Love this stuff. Love your stream. Love what you have happening.
LSV thank you from saving us from angry Paul (he is kinda angry, Magic owes nobody nothing, listening to Paul tells you otherwise) welcome back I hope the family is well. I love your open observations and just honest information....that's why I watch you're videos
Kind of weird and awful to come into someone's comment section to bash on a different MTG content creator who happens to be one of their friends. If you don't like Paul's content, don't watch it, but there was no reason to bring it up here.
@@4rt240 Wow everyone card games are fun! I love how Luis always asks the universe to drop him power first pick in Vintage. Trust me Paul is a legend in his own right and stands on his own merits, however I just love how Luis engages with his audience. English humour I was just laughing at "angry Paul" Paul is a top man it's just about the serendipity and RNG of the Magic life......nothing bad intended, I wish everyone all the best energy in life. We live in an oversensitive generation for sure.
@@marknellist2598 if we live in an overly sensitive generation, YOU are proof of that. Nothing in your original comment looked like a joke, and you just melted from people telling you not to be an asshole.
Maybe I'm just in a maudlin mood but something about this draft was extremely nostalgic for me - watching LSV draft UB 3-drops reminded me of watching your M10 drafts more than 15 years ago. Thank you so much for the incredible entertainment over the years!
holy crap! I only started playing a couple years ago, wild that LSV has been doing this for so long
Ceph plays Brotato, BG3, and MTG?? You’ve got some good taste!
Seeing one subscribes channel watching another subscribed channel. #channelsallthewaydown
Perhaps it's nostalgic because it's all reprints
I didn’t hear him say splashiok:(
This set just has the vibe of 2010s limited, right down to the unbeatable PW experience.
Fun minigame to track ashiok’s loyalty without being able to see it
Your math for Tidebinder was way off. If I understood what you were saying, you said there was a 40% chance that you would play against someone with at least one of the two colors it targets, assuming colors are chosen (independently) at random and each deck plays two. However, if that's the case then when a deck chooses its first color it has a 3/5 chance of choosing a color that Tidebinder doesn't target, and then it has a 2/4 chance of choosing a second (different) color that Tidebinder doesn't target. So the chance that decks constructed this way are playing colors that Tidebinder doesn't target is 2/4 * 3/5 = 6/20 = 3/10 = 30%. That means that Tidebinder will have targets 70% of the time, significantly more than 40%.
An alternative way of thinking about this is...
Assume that there is an equal distribution of all two colour combinations. If so, there are 3 combinations out of 10 that contain neither red nor green {W/U, W/B, U/B}. Therefore, the odds are 70%
NEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRD
@@ryanbrewes to bad match making fucks these odds up significantly.
You know they say that all cards are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Merfolk Tidebinder and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another creature, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Cloudfin Raptor to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Cloudfin Raptor KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So Merfolk Tidebinder you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Tidebinder, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice
The play at 43:00 was the loosest i‘ve ever seen you make xD
He had 2 mana up, you SAID YOURSELF that he probably had a pump-spell and you opted to not ob nixilis the lethal double-striker and countering the pump :D
I'm a simple man. I see Ashiok I click
Easily my favorite planeswalker ever, so sad that it’s not in vintage cube anymore
@PeteDoesGames I think Teferi HoD, Time Raveler, and Liliana Dreadhorde General are my top 3 but Ashiok Nightmare Muse is a very close 4th
Nightmare Weaver is disgusting. No offense, I absolutely hate playing against that bloody card.
I like to imagine LSV saying "aaaand heeere..." between the births of the first and second twin.
This reminds of of good old days when standard was so much fun diverse and had a lot of replay ability
I am _very_ interested in some more Pioneer Masters as well as Powermax. It's been great to see so much variety as of late, really nice.
This set looks really cool. Very Cube-ey.
Not taking Dreadhound twice made me cry.
Love your videos, just a note.. we can’t quite see the planeswalker loyalty under your camera. Congrats on the twins 🎉
Good ol Joe Gurmaggio!
I feel like this would make a pretty good basis for a cube. It's not quite as big as modern, but it's better then standard. It's peak 2010's Magic!
It feels a lot like one of my paper cubes.
@concertautist4474 do you got a list? Ive been trying to build a cube that i like for years but ive never found a configuration i really gel with
Fun fun
The math on tidebinder mage I think is a bit rudimentary.
Assuming a generally two colour format for simplicity, there are 10 pairs. 4 of those contain red. Three more contain green. So you'll have hits in 7/10 matchups.
Obviously 6 of those are partial colour so for those the likelihood you run this out on an early turn to good effect is basically halved (which is where the 40% number comes in).
But if you treat it more like a surge card for the lategame then it becomes much more likely you'll get to an advantage from the effect in those cases.
It's kind of like the lower bound for chance of hitting is 40% and the upper bound is 70%.
Hey Luis, I love your videos. Can you please play Duel Commander again? It is really interesting to see you play commander.
I will get to it for sure
Hey Streamer: you did in the fly statistics while also trying to be entertaining and engaging with an active gameplay scenario. How dare you get it wrong?!?
Love this stuff. Love your stream. Love what you have happening.
Honestly this draft format just feels… bad watching all these early access videos
The ASMR is killing me plz turn down the mic sensitivity a bit, thanks!
first
fart
LSV thank you from saving us from angry Paul (he is kinda angry, Magic owes nobody nothing, listening to Paul tells you otherwise) welcome back I hope the family is well. I love your open observations and just honest information....that's why I watch you're videos
Yeah I tried to watch Paul but he keeps complaining, meanwhile Luis is calm and collected
Kind of weird and awful to come into someone's comment section to bash on a different MTG content creator who happens to be one of their friends. If you don't like Paul's content, don't watch it, but there was no reason to bring it up here.
@@4rt240 Wow everyone card games are fun! I love how Luis always asks the universe to drop him power first pick in Vintage. Trust me Paul is a legend in his own right and stands on his own merits, however I just love how Luis engages with his audience. English humour I was just laughing at "angry Paul" Paul is a top man it's just about the serendipity and RNG of the Magic life......nothing bad intended, I wish everyone all the best energy in life. We live in an oversensitive generation for sure.
Coming in to the comments and talking shit on one of LSV's oldest friends is super weird of you
@@marknellist2598 if we live in an overly sensitive generation, YOU are proof of that. Nothing in your original comment looked like a joke, and you just melted from people telling you not to be an asshole.