Recession 2024 (Part II): Buy Treasuries Now | Bond Investing 2024
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- Опубліковано 21 тра 2024
- Are you foolish for buying US Treasuries? Or should you KEEP buying US Treasuries? Is $34 trillion of US debt really a problem? Plus what are we doing with our money based on our findings from this Recession 2024 mini-series? Watch on & find out!
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*Sources can be found in first pinned comment
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Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
1. Bond Basics
What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
Inflation Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
Wrap-Up
3. US Treasuries Overview
What Are US Treasuries
Why Invest In Treasuries
Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
Wrap-Up
4. Treasury Bills
What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
Where Should You Buy At Auction
Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
Where To Find Recent Auction Results
High Rate vs Investment Rate
Reopening Auctions
Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
Wrap-Up
5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
When Do Auctions Happen
Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
Wrap-Up
6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
What Are TIPS
When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
Nominal vs Real Yields
Negative Yields
How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
Taxes On Phantom Income
Secondary Market Liquidity
Wrap-Up
7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
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Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
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SOURCES FOR TODAY'S VIDEO:
www.wsj.com/economy/global/us-economy-strongest-world-imf-projections-8e707514
www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/10/28/241295755/a-churchill-quote-that-u-s-politicians-will-never-surrender
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
www.wsj.com/economy/global/us-economy-strongest-world-imf-projections-8e707514
companiesmarketcap.com/
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN
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The federal debt is a huge concern. Great video
Treasuries are yielding well over 5% at the short end. Where else will you find that return if you are retired and dont want to be 100% in equities. Its as guaranteed a return as you can get. Yes, there are stocks that have appreciated and stocks with higher dividends but they are far riskier ( i do hold 30 % or so in stocks, mainly dividend yielding blue chips). Plus T bills better than a bond fund ( go look at the total return of those, ugh) and the yields better than just about any investment grade corporate or municipal individual bonds. CD's are ok but no tax breaks for those. Treasuries would need to fall a lot before i stop buying them.
Very nice breakdown of how you go about things -- thank you
Retired and done watching the market.Tbill interest pays all my bills.At these rates, I don’t touch my savings. The longer the better
Agree. We are investing in T-Bills. Buy from Treasury Direct and pay no state tax on gains. We have ours on auto re-invest, but we can cancel that if the rates drop.
@@JBoy340aTreasury Direct is fine as long as you don’t need to call for any reason. Be prepared to be on hold for very long time before anyone answers your call ( government! ) . Or, get up to call in the wee morning hours to beat the crowd. Brokerages answer phone calls promptly. At Fidelity or Vanguard, your cash payout at maturation is parked in your core account till you reinvest it, The government money market core account offers almost 5% interest now. If you have a margin account, you can place a new order before the old bonds’ maturation date. It is not considered a margin purchase as long as the new purchase’s settlement date is the same or later than the old bonds’ maturation date . You also have the option for auto renewal.
@@JBoy340aOne more advantage I found in my personal experience in buying T bills from brokerage companies vs from Treasury Direct is that the cash from selling T Bills parked in the core account is immediately accessible, convenient to use for many other purposes or investments.
I pay them 22%, may as well get back 5% of it
lol
Cash back rewards! 😂
yea really
5% return minus 3% inflation: You get back 2%. Also, you probably forgot the cost of inflation on your other assets.
Excellent post. Thank you.
Appreciate your optimism!
Thank you , Terrific Video Series !.... I think now is a good time to stay in short term Treasuries , until I can determine a Long term View . ....An Economic storm lies ahead of us., now is the Time to observe and be nimble......Thank you....
Agree!
Great info. Great video. Thank you.
Tbills from money market to 6months are fine beyond that you are penalized.severly for taking on any sigificant duration risk.
The one year is 5.15. I don’t think that’s too penalizing.
At the 10 month duration you can move over to Gov’t Agencies and the yields are higher than treasuries. There are 3 types of agencies that are still STATE tax exempt just like treasuries.
Another great video. I am dollar cost averaging into QQQM and SCHB weekly for long term growth (10-20 years out),, I am buying and rolling over three month T-bills for the medium term (3-7 years). I have cash sitting in high yield saving accounts and CD for short term (6m to 3 years). I'm retiring at the end of the year. Will start collecting social security in three years, wife will collect in four). Will begin MRD from retirement accts. in 6 years. We have sold the house and are moving to France January 2025, no matter who wins in November!
Sounds lovely Kel - all the best for your move!
WOW, your videos are always very useful, this one may be one of your best ever.
Well, I guess I'll hold with 5+% 30 days Treasuries, GLD and a few Blue Chip stocks. I'm not counting on the FED dropping rates this year.
Superlative video series! Perhaps you can do a series on how to access primary/private government data and how to analyze results. Thank you! ❤
Excellent video!!!
4:04 Sure, but the Treasury is borrowing from the Federal Reserve. It's like making money from air.
Thanks!
Everyone has to decide what is best for their own situation.
Thank you
Churchill was right. Thank you for this show...
Good stuff
We asked ourself the same question. Market has increased far more than tbills/tbonds for last 9 months. But now fear that if we shift then equities will drop once we do shift into equities. Lol
Yeah, they are up... until they aren't. If you're smart enough to get out before it implodes, it works wonderful. I'm not that smart, so I will take the 5% for no risk.
Most Equities are too “too expensive” and interest rates are still high ….I think that people are waiting for the 10% stock market correction or 20% bear market before jumping fully into equities.
@@daw777310% would bring us VOO 440ish and is still well above what it was even last fall.
I am having that problem for years and the market will probably be 60k and still asking myself that question. LOL
@@daw7773 It will have to go down way more than that until I get in.
older,retired and riding the short term T-Bill wave, Oh, Drunken Sailor ,there, I said it.
liked you cute picture, way to go! you came a long way.
Maybe perhaps all time high Stock and home values are reflecting forward real inflation from printing 40-100% more dollars in 4 short years
Very good mini series. I am diversified and asset allocated in stocks, bonds, real estate and cash. I still don’t fully understand TIPS or I Bonds though.
You are full of amazing quotes today👌🤣👌🤣
The 3 "Ds" of Doom have been around for quite a while, IMHO.
I am a Churchill fan. Great video
Overall the US is in better shape currently compared to many other economies. The disfunctional government and debt is a huge concern.
One issue I have seen is Americans earn a lot more than other countries however the amount of individual savings is a lot less than other countries. This is double trouble in bad times.
saving isn't profitable or productive right now. savings accounts are abysmal. it's best to spend before pricing increases even higher. my home has almost doubled in value. my car brand new was under 30k. everything goes up.
Ima_Hoot, each U.S. State is like a miniature country. You can't compare a State to another because each has its own State Government, not just Federal Government. So, living costs, etc. vary across the States. 05jun24
Everything will be fine... until it isn't
Exactly. That's why I invest in everything: US, International, and Total Bond
Your camp, Jen. Winst on Churchill goodd company.
You're brilliant. Growth in equities and high yield treasuries is hard to go wing with. I'm somewhat between Churchill and US pessimism.
Have you thought about the US decoupling from China and moving investments to Japan(since they are our ally) additionally Japan Nikkei has hit a new high(not sure if that was due to the yen weakness or stock strength)?
very thorough and articulate.
Thank you for this video but you did not mention 10, 20 or 30 years bonds just T-bills and I-Bonds. Do you invest and would you continue to invest in these long term bonds?
Hi Jen, I am hoping to retire in 17 years, but it could take as long as 22. What’s the Diamond Nest Egg position on international exposure in total asset allocation? From this video I’d venture to guess you’re in the camp of no more than 20% allocated to international or do you think there’s no reason to bother with it at all?
this level headed information on the economy should replace the polarizing ones on msm
Second to none, first to run!!!
Can u make a video about bull vs bear steepener
I've been buying long term corporate bonds that have call dates 20yrs+ from now and also NVIDIA stock (buy and hold only).
10 year TIPS breakeven is currently at 2.33%. At this rate TIPS is definitely a better buy than nominal treasury. Fed's inflation target is 2% so assuming it manages to hit the target, TIPS would only lose 0.33% vs nominal. It's very likely that the fed may move its inflation target to 3% or higher.
Inflation averages 2.8%. The Fed basically never hits that target, it’s total fiction.
@@rockycodyjesse You can look at what the TIPS breakeven rate is online. What the breakeven rate is is just the difference between the TIPS yield and the nominal yield. That difference is the expected inflation rate. Of course this breakeven rate changes daily based on yields of the TIPS and the nominal treasury.
At what point will the government be issuing so much that it needs to increase yields to attract buyers?
GSE bonds yielding 6 to 6.25% for 7 to 10 year duration seem hard to beat right now. Slowly moving some tbills into GSE bonds as they mature.
hmm - don't see any actual return of those "6.x% GSE's at more than 5.5 and of cource not call-protected with workout dates usually 3-6 month untill callable by schedule. very similar to treasuries - not sure a .3% delta for less than a year is realy worth the beta risk.
I have GSEs. I love GSEs, but they are short-term, not 7-10 year durations @ 6+%.
I'm foolish, but I have big time insurance.
T bill’s and we’ll see what rates are coming.
I feel I seriously missed out on returns in the account that has treasuries. Half treasuries, and half index ETFS. Less than 5 percent returns so far as we are at all time highs.
I'm with Churchill
Bought 4 week 5.26 somewhere in their no State tax on t bills
I think Warren Buffett's solutions to fix the debt is the one that should be implemented - congress shall fix the budget deficit, or render yourself ineligible for re-election for any public office ever again, along with immediate termination of lifetime benefits such as healthcare, private security, etc.
I bought some long term. When everyone is afraid, that’s the time to buy. Will be too late once the rate drops.
20 year agency bond?
@@Trust_but_Verify yes
Are they call protected?
@@lovehusky02I have both long term agency bonds and treasury bonds. Agency bonds are usually not call protected, but 6% is a good place to park money and exempted from state taxes for a year or two as some call schedule starts May 2025.
@@lovehusky02 They are not call protected, but when they get recalled it's like you made high interest for a short term.
I’m in the accumulation phase so I have a well diversified portfolio with mostly stocks for my retirement money. I also have some alternative investments: precious metals, commodities and even a teeny tiny bit of Bitcoin ETF. My emergency funds and money I’ll need in the next few years is in short term treasuries and CDs. When the stock market goes down think of it as stocks on sale. Dollar cost averaging is your friend if you have a long time horizon
smart and well
thought plan
well except for the bitcoin part.
@@dave9917 My wife has been buying bitcoin for a few year now and I've stopped arguing with her
Treasury bills do seem interesting. I've got 17 stocks right now and I may be able to bring that number down (depending on some things). Might get rid of HPK and KHC and Boeing and then save until things go down. I'd love to see all those aforementioned stocks go up near 52 wk highs before I do that though...
well done video btw. Robc8468 said Tbills up to 6 months are good. maybe I look into that range, thanks rob
I'll buy your Boeing shares after the Machinist go on strike in September.
why not lock 10yr treasuries instead of TIPS?
Pessimistic ,we have too much of GDP based on government spending at all levels
What are you doing? 60/40, 40/60 or something else?
I'm young (35) so I'm basically 100% stocks. Predominately SP500 so I have seen some significant growth recently because of it. I definitely agree on the international investments though, they havent been great and have no real reason to become great in the near future.
Yeah being that young I would do the same.
I don't know why everyone thinks that emerging markets shouldn't be part of a diversified portfolio. Sure they haven't done much lately but demographics are still destiny. Many foreign countries are younger and growing faster than the US. Even countries like Japan that aren't younger or growing faster still have large economies and stable governments (and currency). There are opportunites all over the world.
@@charlespeters1480 agree I’m 63 , semi retired
SP 500 20%
International 10%
Mid 10%
Small 10%
Misc RE/preferred/high div etf 15%
Junk bond 10%
Investment grade 10%
Short term/cds 15% (for now)
@charlespeters1480 they've done a great job losing me money over the years whether by actual losses or lost gains by not being in something like the SP500 or total stock market index.
@@charlespeters1480 i used emerging when i was 100% stocks and they provided some nice quarters of returns but i have always weighted toward US equities w/ a tech sector bias - no real reason even now to do more than 10 (-15?) % non-US, as host-country-biased as it is.
Still buying Treasuries and Stocks, but also Gold to help offset some risk. As for a dysfunctional government, we're in a real pickle on that one. Our top 2 Presidential picks are unappealing and 3rd party candidates are meh. None of the Above 2024, please.
VT247
IMO 2 pres picks are 2 wings from the same bird. If our vote counted, do you think they'd really let us vote?
"Dial D for Disaster".
The way you said "laissez-faire"... apparently you can speak French?
Others in the family speak/study French, so I hear it often. I only speak English, German & Cantonese :-)
Only. Yer a badass
@@DiamondNestEgg Mon Dieu!
Also a 4th D risk is demographics. We are an aging population. Immigration is the only thing keeping our economy going - and it is becoming less welcome to many people in the country.
Demographics will cause pain that we cannot begin to fathom.
I have no problem with immigration. It just needs to be done in an orderly and LEGAL manner!!
@@azgardenlover370 absolutely! Just like it should be with guns! All the immigrants and guns in this country should be legally registered with paperwork that shows they're authorized to be out there.
Don’t forget there is GOOD INFLATION. Besides be debt being invested, a weakened dollar reduces the impact of the debt, plus increases exports. I worry most about geopolitical events and most of the world hating the US success. Also, the FBI worries most about domestic terror. The only healthy way to live is being optimistic. The CA dream still exists, OpenAI and Nvidia being the latest. I wish CA and Washington ste and Oregon secede. Red states would love that.
Japan's debt to GDP is almost 250%, whereas America's is just under 100% ... and Japan has lower inflation, at 2.5%. I think that demographic change very much affects inflation. America has an open border with immigration accounting for a large share of the recent population increase, whereas Japan has limited immigration (smart) and a much lower inflation rate. Everyone has to live somewhere and everyone has to eat, so America's immigration policy is very inflationary, despite the "low wage" argument. That just makes many of us more poor.
More pessimistic.
Ukraine war is another support to our economy. High price oil sold to them and that pushes European companies move their companies to the US and the investors move the money to us as well.