Summary that I took away from this video: 1. Due to surplus of inventories, big companies such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are going to try to get rid of their inventories by adjusting their prices (e.g. sales). So we can expect this to contribute to deflationary in the near future. 2. USD has strengthen by 15%, which is a big inflation protector. 3. Used cars values are going to come down as mentioned several times in the previous weeks videos as well. 4. Bonds market interest rate are going down (prediction with R2 score of 95%), but the stock market hasn't understood that or realized that yet. So we can expect the equity market coming back up in the near future. 5. Cathie is expecting that the equity that are going back up will be the growth stocks, instead of the value stocks like back in 2020-2021. 6. Both of the speakers think that the Feds are making a mistake by tightening up the market too much, because the economics outlook isn't doing so well (high energy prices, low spending, and low consumer confidence) 7. Cathies thinks automation is going to play a big part of bringing manufacturing back to USA, it's going to benefit the USA greatly but will hurt the other countries greatly as well. 8. As mentioned in most of the ITK videos with Cathie, Cathie still stands firm on ARK's point of view on the disruptive technology and innovation.
And, yet, further to your point #7, the shipping ports of California have been ranked among the lowest in the world. That's according to an article by FrieghtWaves just days ago. Biden's Build-Back-Better plan is a failure. They are light years away from getting any automation. I'm sorry, but I'm afraid she's talking out of her butt.
I got from it that WMT will have to protect their margins, and raise prices more. After a horrific year+ Cathie is talking up her book. And the market.
Cathie and her team are special. It’s sad that their optimism and belief in a disruptive future is being crushed by this economic collapse. Will be hard times for awhile but 2-3 years from now she will be respected again.
Brilliant, as usual. When I heard about the Target and Walmart inventories, I immediately thought of you, Cathie. Thank you for these highly informative updates, keeping us one step ahead.
Although I disagree with many of your positions, I do greatly admire your ongoing communication efforts and your thoughts. If only our country had a long-term plan and leaders had such a great style. IMO, asset bubbles need to be deflated. Remember, when Obama took office in 2009, the S&P was at 1000 and the Dow 8750, as a reference as we wonder how deep a correction could be at bottom. Massive debts will be the global trigger to defaults and deflation. China, Russia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Argentina, are collapsing already. Increasing US Fed rates equates to zombie companies failing, highly leveraged companies hurting, profits being squeezed, stalled projects/growth, and slowing of sales. Food, energy, Rents, and labor Inflation will be sticky. Real estate (regional) takes time to correct but will with rate hikes. I think 'low leveraged' profitable Cannabis companies may recover in stock price (like YOURF), since they represent cash transaction based high sales growth in comparison to technology growth that has a long waiting timeline that depresses PEs as rates increase. I disagree on CISCO, ... Edge computing is forecasted to grow big time as IOTs grow and data needs to be closer to decentralized applications and sensors. The trend is from all public cloud to Hybrid clouds (mix of public and on-prem clouds & edge). Remember, the cloud isn't magic, it's enabled by CISCO products primarily (hardware/software). The reduced forecast for CISCO could be based on chip shortages and their forecast of a recession.
I am literally typing this in a mall parking lot. EVERY business has signs asking for help. We couldn't get food at Panda Express or a sandwich shop because they closed early. Both restaurants had signs on their doors saying they closed early because of lack of supplies! This is insane!
Thank you, Cathie. I didn’t expect this information but it was very useful. It would also be good to invite someone with an opposite view about inflation to understand why they think differently.
Innovation may solve a lot of problems. But most Arkk investors would just like the problem of how they have lost 75% of their money solved. I had a fund like hers in the 1990 s. It was run by Garrett Von Wagner. It was super in the 1990's. Then it sank like a rock in the 2000's. You can't manage money like this for long-term shareholder success.
Just like in 2000. 2008. Commodity prices rose before the collapse , we have had divergence on weekly time frames in almost all sectors and now also in commodoties / oil. The deflationary collapse wont help ARKK , new leaders of course will arise, ARKK is history accept it
@@gocatapultar when this happens people will say "look ark is best invest now!!!" Then she goes down and they say "haha, what a garbage I bought, sell now" Then ppl wonder why 90% of ppl lose money. And YET retailer does the same thing over and over again
Jan 1, 2021: $ARKK 137.44, May 19, 2022: $ARKK 42.41. (1-42.41/137.44) x 100 = 69.14%. Same period: NASDAQ is down about 20.26%. Yeah, I am stupid and don't understand innovation, dear dream sellers. Maybe reality is just a myth.
She talks about research a lot. She could have done a simple research that 9 out 10 ipos and spacs are much lower a year later from the price they ipo at. She was buying them at ridiculous high prices in market exuberance.
Cathie talked about too much inventory many months ago and how it was going to be a problem for companies. Now it is happening on a large scale with Walmart and Target and soon to be more companies most likely. I love Cathie’s conviction. She does not sway from what her research tells her and her knowledge of economics and it’s inner workings is quite fascinating. I love all her videos but this one with Nancy Lazar was especially informative and hopeful. Thank you ARK.
Do you understand that companies increase their inventories when they expect prices to continue to increase creating an inflationary spiral? ARK are trapped in their confirmation bias bubble, they only consider what supports their initial assumption and discard the rest.
In regards to inventories, I would suggest another explanation…prior to COVID, companies such as Target, WalMart, and HomeDepot would operate their supply chains in just in time inventories. Because of the lack of reliability of shipping through the ports, whether is was getting the space on the ships, or getting their product through the port operations, the big box retailers have basically changed their policy to get it on the ships as soon as you can and dealing with it once it arrives. Many companies were burned last fall finding their Halloween goods still on ships or on the dock by Oct 31st. Hence, inventories have increase, whether it’s on the water, on the docks, versus getting it through their distribution channels. If you check with the ports, you’ll find the biggest perpetrators of idle cargo on the docks have been big box retailers. So it’s not so much they have too much of a product, they have a great deal of the products earlier than then need to bring the products through their networks.
My argument in regards to government spending is are we talking about discretionary spending or mandatory spending? Discretionary spending has decreased with a Biden failing to pass BBB and for ending the war in the Middle East. Is Cathy and her interviewee taking into account mandatory spending as in Medicare, social security, Medicaid and social welfare programs which account for the majority of government spending. Are we taking into account the largest generation in American history move to these mandatory spending sectors of government deficit with a much smaller working class paying enough taxes to cover the baby boomers. I would argue the mandatory spending aspect will not allow for deflation even with temporary decrease discretionary spending. We are seeing subprime auto loan and personal credit card defaults which will be the next banking crisis of small cap financial institutions. One last point the decrease in discretionary spending has more to do with government grid lock not policy.
Inflation is causing a lot of issue in the world ranging from food shortages, diesel fuel and heating fuel shortages, baby formula shortage, shortage of and price of available cars, the price of housing. It's all coming together and could lead to real disaster toward the end of this year.(or sooner)
Cathie. Your core premise - invest in exponential disruption is spot on. The problem with disruptive technology is quite often the final dominant players in any market have not been formed yet. Running an ETF consisting of a portfolio of these stocks implies by design that each stock will be extremely volatile and 90% of the stocks you can invest in today are not going to be there when the market matures. By nature, technological disruption breakthroughs are unpredictable so you can't reliably pick winners. The potential for reward is still exponential but you have to be able to actively trade those positions on the short and long side using options to enhance return. I've been test running a portfolio based loosely on your portfolio. I've been short since November and played strategic options and gone briefly long on technical indicators. Since November it went from 100k to 340K. I would offer a humble recommendation that you introduce an actively traded element to the portfolio not just to hedge but to enhance the return. Of course there's a limit of scale but as it stands your ETF is hobbled by being a one way street committed to long term holdings of companies, 90% of which are going to blow up. I would love to discuss it more with you. You have the power and potential to make ARKK's performance increase exponentially with the right active management strategy.
yes, the deflationary pressures will be on Household goods and consumer products. Televisions, cars, furniture, household goods, ect. However, the inflation pressures will continue with food, gas, travel and other areas of the economy. We are living in a very fascinating, concerning and interesting times.
It's interesting to listen to Cathy. Her view on inflation is baffling in the sense that it disregards the money supply issues through asset purchases by the FED. And as we know inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
You address the demand side but not the supply side. There will still be strong supply side inflationary pressure that the Fed will have to tighten into.
Tony Seba, in his talk to the council of state governments east Aug 17th, under-spoke of what he called "turmoil" and "swirling turmoil" in economies resultant from the economic transformation. Better characterizations are volatility, economic and social violence - as old. stranded industries grasp to hold on. Second, Peter Zeihan's talks and books are very helpful as he looks at demographics and geography to lead economic trends. It's unfortunate that ARK closed the comments on their recent interview with Zeihan.
The problem with the thesis that excess inventories will lead to lower prices is the following.......increased fuel prices might induce companies to keep prices high.....fuel costs are enormous for Walmart and target....
Companies can’t just hoard inventory forever, and they’ll need to show cash flow on their quarterly earnings regardless of the profitability of said goods. Also, Walmart and Target may on be two companies out of thousands, but they’re two of the largest. Every average consumer shops at Walmart - if their earnings are slowing, then the economy is slowing.
We have a Eropean war and are coming out of a global pandemic. Take a look at 1917 - 1918, the last time the world had a European war & was coming out of a global pandemic. Inflation rocketed for two years and then crashed.
What a great surprise to wake up to a special video of you Cathie and an another expert subject matter discussing economic activities, inflation and deflation. In times of turbulence and many" experts" out there pushing the wrong rhetoric, this is reassuring for sure. Thank you!
Such a great video! Two incredibly intelligent women. I could listen to you both discuss anything and everything all day long. I love this point of view, I agree with this outlook and I can’t wait until it all comes to fruition. I know you’ll stay humble when it’s proven you were right the entire time.😍
As TSLA shareholder: Covid, lockdowns, parts shortages, and the macro environment conspiring together has been the black swan event. Perhaps, now, the stock has priced it in and has bottomed.
You say that tangible assets will excel, yet the Fed has been talking tough about real estate and it appears they will be focusing their policy changes in order to reduce costs-of-living. It seems like the environment will support the tangible assets you mention until the Federal Reserve gets up and starts front-running rate hikes until they see the edge of a recession, which will *also* naturally clear away some of the inflation.
Thank you Cathie and Nancy. I really appreciate the insights you shared in this video. I'm going to watch a second time to make sure I didn't miss anything!
It is interesting that the more you talk about deflation, the higher the inflation rate becomes. I think innovation does bring a deflationary effect but not sufficient cause a deflation.
If only the government stopped spending money created out of nothing by the FED... We need this inflationary bubble to be brutal, it is the only way people will learn
With Cathie Wood and the great US economists Who can answer my following questions? 1. Is the Deflation the best way/weapon to deal with the Inflation? If the answer is not, why the FED is doing so right now? 2. Generally, Inflation and Deflation, which one is more harmful to the economy? 3. Throughout the history, the Inflation is everlasting. How much the health inflation rate should be? 4. Inflation is not just a national phenomena, but also a international phenomena. So, dealing with inflation, we should not just have a national view but also an international view. My questions is, if in a quite long period of time(let's say 10 years or 20 years), A country keeps having higher inflation rate than B country, and meanwhile the currency exchange rate between A and B was almost a constant , does that mean as the time goes, the people in A country will be much more richer than the people in B country? That's what happened between the US and China in last 20 years. That's why we see everything is more and more expensive , because we are more and more poor than the Chinese.
From another article, the inflation rate is much higher for goods, services are only 3.5% which says it is still a supply shock issue. I'm in the print business for over 35 yrs. It is actually quite busy right now, the problem is getting supplies, paper (I have orders where I have to wait weeks for carbonless stock) and months for thing like toner for my digital press. It is literally unprecedented. But as another person pointed out below, many stores are having difficulty getting staff.
a Question for Cathy & ARK: IF the Fed just doesn't change its current relatively Hawkish stance, will 'Value Stocks' be the better bet for the average investor moving forward? i know ARK tends to focus on 'Growth Stocks' but maybe, with this current Fed policy, we really are in a new Paradigm that has to be adjusted for? maybe an 'ARKV' (V for 'Value') can be offered, i'd be interested in it!
Short-term draw downs from everywhere: crypto, stocks, real estate, and labour market with pull back in both monetary and fiscal globally is bound to lower demand. Large inventory supplies would combine to lower prices. What puzzles me is the long-term secular trends. I wonder if it is possible to quantify deglobalization, demographics and innovation against increasing labour costs, geo-political conflict and the energy transition costs. Would the sum of structural forces be net inflationary or net deflationary? Cathie and econ geeks watch a video series on INET (institute for new economic thinking) called [eco]nomics. Ecology, and thermodynamics are data points that will be structural features of macro perspectives sooner than anyone realizes. GDP surely doesn’t measure the digital sphere, but neither does it show decommodification dynamics, or entropy.
Very interesting contrarian view backed up with data facts. Keep your powder dry, because if Wood is right, it's going to be like removing a weight from a coiled spring. Everyone is now talking about how we're in the 70's all over again, how we're looking at years of stagflation, with the fed having no choice but to crank rates up to 7, 8, 9%. When "everyone knows," it's usually wrong. If this plays out, we could have one of the most dramatic V reversals as everyone rushes back into the deep end of the pool. The last quarter could be VERY good for the market. I'd love to see the market sell off between now and the end of September.
Everyone doesn't know this. Stagflation is unavoidable. Either that or hyperinflation. The bubbles must pop eventually, and this looks to be in process now.
this is kind of crazy to see. The vast majority of comments on this video are positive and thankful. I have not seen that on hardly any channels at all.
Maybe this little fact will help you. The Black Swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
I hope Nancy and Cathie are right, but I worry that they find what they want to find. It can happen to anyone including people at the top of their field. I have no idea what will happen, but I do enjoy getting this point of view to counter the doom and gloom crowd.
Thank you for the clear analyses. Our situation is quite historically unique, and it’s difficult for even experienced professionals to understand the dynamics.
"Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard." - Edgar Fielder Hyperinflation is coming, and will completely destroy America. America: 1776 - 2020 🇺🇲
I think you are right, but it’s a tough sell right now. Lots of new investors have not been through rough times - I deal with it by focusing on other things in my life. Good luck with your investments.
Many thanks for this Cathie and Nancy. We only get to hear such valuable insights only because of disruptive innovations like the internet and UA-cam. in the past, people would have to fork out thousands for professional consultations.
Prices are crazy, thank goodness I have a little bit of savings but if this goes on for several years my savings will be gone. I hope prices drop very soon. This is terrible for so many!
Thank you for the great insight i.e. elaborating on factors contributing to deflationary pressure, two big question marks remain: 1. high energy prices? (slow pace of transformation to renewables, Ukraine conflict, lower domestic oil & gas output) 2. do you see re-shoring of supply chains really happen that quickly?
Where are you seeing Target 'marking down prices?' I watch it closely and my stores are all still increasing prices. And many shelves are still not well stocked.
Yeah but if there is high demand a businessman will respond by buying a larger inventory (at a lower price). So maybe the large inventories reflect the expectation of high demand in future duh. If the inventory purchases are larger on companies side, the individual unit value of the inventory is less, which means the profit margin should remain more or less the same even if they reduce price for consumer, and voila, in a deflating economy companies profit and consumers get lower prices! Unless you are overleveraged of course, in which case this doesn't really apply. Principle may also vary depending on product type and industry.
Summary that I took away from this video:
1. Due to surplus of inventories, big companies such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are going to try to get rid of their inventories by adjusting their prices (e.g. sales). So we can expect this to contribute to deflationary in the near future.
2. USD has strengthen by 15%, which is a big inflation protector.
3. Used cars values are going to come down as mentioned several times in the previous weeks videos as well.
4. Bonds market interest rate are going down (prediction with R2 score of 95%), but the stock market hasn't understood that or realized that yet. So we can expect the equity market coming back up in the near future.
5. Cathie is expecting that the equity that are going back up will be the growth stocks, instead of the value stocks like back in 2020-2021.
6. Both of the speakers think that the Feds are making a mistake by tightening up the market too much, because the economics outlook isn't doing so well (high energy prices, low spending, and low consumer confidence)
7. Cathies thinks automation is going to play a big part of bringing manufacturing back to USA, it's going to benefit the USA greatly but will hurt the other countries greatly as well.
8. As mentioned in most of the ITK videos with Cathie, Cathie still stands firm on ARK's point of view on the disruptive technology and innovation.
And, yet, further to your point #7, the shipping ports of California have been ranked among the lowest in the world. That's according to an article by FrieghtWaves just days ago. Biden's Build-Back-Better plan is a failure. They are light years away from getting any automation. I'm sorry, but I'm afraid she's talking out of her butt.
Thanks. You saved thirty minutes of my life.
I got from it that WMT will have to protect their margins, and raise prices more. After a horrific year+ Cathie is talking up her book. And the market.
And WMT has been claiming "new lower prices since the beginning of time. Like TGT, etc.
Thanks for the concise summary!
Cathie and her team are special. It’s sad that their optimism and belief in a disruptive future is being crushed by this economic collapse. Will be hard times for awhile but 2-3 years from now she will be respected again.
this isn't a economic collapse yet. She lost 75% in a finanace bubble. sounds like you did yoo
Quite the opposite. Exactly the opposite, actually. Prepare accordingly. 🇺🇲
The pain is yet to come.
Decade of inflation, or collapse the economy.
Lol optimism more like blockchain euphoria
I find it fascinating there are only 3 comments!!
I for one really, really appreciate these kinds of talks getting put up on UA-cam. Thank you Cathie.
are they worth 75% of your investment portfolio?
@@davidanalyst671 yes
@@davidanalyst671 What?
@@davidanalyst671 stop buying high.
What is Roku disrupting?
Isn’t this the same lady who thought Bitcoin was going to a million dollars and Tesla to 5,000 😂😂😂
good luck to anyone still following this strategy
Brilliant, as usual. When I heard about the Target and Walmart inventories, I immediately thought of you, Cathie. Thank you for these highly informative updates, keeping us one step ahead.
Yeah
Terrific advice! Thank you
Lmfao ARK is Sinking due to incompetence of Over rated Leader
Although I disagree with many of your positions, I do greatly admire your ongoing communication efforts and your thoughts. If only our country had a long-term plan and leaders had such a great style. IMO, asset bubbles need to be deflated. Remember, when Obama took office in 2009, the S&P was at 1000 and the Dow 8750, as a reference as we wonder how deep a correction could be at bottom. Massive debts will be the global trigger to defaults and deflation. China, Russia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Argentina, are collapsing already. Increasing US Fed rates equates to zombie companies failing, highly leveraged companies hurting, profits being squeezed, stalled projects/growth, and slowing of sales. Food, energy, Rents, and labor Inflation will be sticky. Real estate (regional) takes time to correct but will with rate hikes. I think 'low leveraged' profitable Cannabis companies may recover in stock price (like YOURF), since they represent cash transaction based high sales growth in comparison to technology growth that has a long waiting timeline that depresses PEs as rates increase. I disagree on CISCO, ... Edge computing is forecasted to grow big time as IOTs grow and data needs to be closer to decentralized applications and sensors. The trend is from all public cloud to Hybrid clouds (mix of public and on-prem clouds & edge). Remember, the cloud isn't magic, it's enabled by CISCO products primarily (hardware/software). The reduced forecast for CISCO could be based on chip shortages and their forecast of a recession.
I am literally typing this in a mall parking lot. EVERY business has signs asking for help. We couldn't get food at Panda Express or a sandwich shop because they closed early. Both restaurants had signs on their doors saying they closed early because of lack of supplies! This is insane!
what part of the US are you?
I LOVE this woman. She’s not an innovator herself like Elon, but she’s a shepherd for the sheeple and I put her on a similar pedestal.
I am so glad you posted a second video this month!!
Thank you, Cathie. I didn’t expect this information but it was very useful. It would also be good to invite someone with an opposite view about inflation to understand why they think differently.
Peter Schiff vs. Cathie wood. Thing is, she would never do that. She only goes on CNBC and gets soft ball questions
Well said! I am also here to learn more genuine ways on short term investment, any idea here?
Innovation may solve a lot of problems. But most Arkk investors would just like the problem of how they have lost 75% of their money solved. I had a fund like hers in the 1990
s. It was run by Garrett Von Wagner. It was super in the 1990's. Then it sank like a rock in the 2000's. You can't manage money like this for long-term shareholder success.
I get the inventories. But what about the oil, wheat and other rising comomodeties prices? Wouldnˋt the keep the pressure on inflation high?
Just like in 2000. 2008. Commodity prices rose before the collapse , we have had divergence on weekly time frames in almost all sectors and now also in commodoties / oil. The deflationary collapse wont help ARKK , new leaders of course will arise, ARKK is history accept it
@@opa1966saa Wrong. I guarantee a few years from now, ARK will be back putting up strong returns.
@@gocatapultar when this happens people will say "look ark is best invest now!!!"
Then she goes down and they say "haha, what a garbage I bought, sell now"
Then ppl wonder why 90% of ppl lose money. And YET retailer does the same thing over and over again
This extra update is much appreciated considering the difficult environment we go through these days
Jan 1, 2021: $ARKK 137.44, May 19, 2022: $ARKK 42.41. (1-42.41/137.44) x 100 = 69.14%.
Same period: NASDAQ is down about 20.26%. Yeah, I am stupid and don't understand innovation, dear dream sellers. Maybe reality is just a myth.
This strategy was great in the past. In this environment of stagflation? Not so much...
She talks about research a lot. She could have done a simple research that 9 out 10 ipos and spacs are much lower a year later from the price they ipo at. She was buying them at ridiculous high prices in market exuberance.
Sven Carling, PhD, recently called her research high school level :)
So, which stock should we buy and hold for the next 3 years?
Yep. And Warren Buffett says that’s about all you need.
Cathie talked about too much inventory many months ago and how it was going to be a problem for companies. Now it is happening on a large scale with Walmart and Target and soon to be more companies most likely. I love Cathie’s conviction. She does not sway from what her research tells her and her knowledge of economics and it’s inner workings is quite fascinating. I love all her videos but this one with Nancy Lazar was especially informative and hopeful. Thank you ARK.
Do you understand that companies increase their inventories when they expect prices to continue to increase creating an inflationary spiral? ARK are trapped in their confirmation bias bubble, they only consider what supports their initial assumption and discard the rest.
In regards to inventories, I would suggest another explanation…prior to COVID, companies such as Target, WalMart, and HomeDepot would operate their supply chains in just in time inventories. Because of the lack of reliability of shipping through the ports, whether is was getting the space on the ships, or getting their product through the port operations, the big box retailers have basically changed their policy to get it on the ships as soon as you can and dealing with it once it arrives. Many companies were burned last fall finding their Halloween goods still on ships or on the dock by Oct 31st. Hence, inventories have increase, whether it’s on the water, on the docks, versus getting it through their distribution channels. If you check with the ports, you’ll find the biggest perpetrators of idle cargo on the docks have been big box retailers. So it’s not so much they have too much of a product, they have a great deal of the products earlier than then need to bring the products through their networks.
She is right, Inflation has caused her market cap to deflate. Agreed.
Cathie Woods is the best!!! Love listening to her speak!
Best at losing money
Thanks Cathy for the taking the time as always
This is the best time to research the potential for exponential growth companies because the market is selling them for cheap
My argument in regards to government spending is are we talking about discretionary spending or mandatory spending? Discretionary spending has decreased with a Biden failing to pass BBB and for ending the war in the Middle East. Is Cathy and her interviewee taking into account mandatory spending as in Medicare, social security, Medicaid and social welfare programs which account for the majority of government spending. Are we taking into account the largest generation in American history move to these mandatory spending sectors of government deficit with a much smaller working class paying enough taxes to cover the baby boomers. I would argue the mandatory spending aspect will not allow for deflation even with temporary decrease discretionary spending. We are seeing subprime auto loan and personal credit card defaults which will be the next banking crisis of small cap financial institutions. One last point the decrease in discretionary spending has more to do with government grid lock not policy.
Nailed it!! Look for stagflation.
So happy you are making videos!
Inflation is causing a lot of issue in the world ranging from food shortages, diesel fuel and heating fuel shortages, baby formula shortage, shortage of and price of available cars, the price of housing. It's all coming together and could lead to real disaster toward the end of this year.(or sooner)
Cathie. Your core premise - invest in exponential disruption is spot on. The problem with disruptive technology is quite often the final dominant players in any market have not been formed yet. Running an ETF consisting of a portfolio of these stocks implies by design that each stock will be extremely volatile and 90% of the stocks you can invest in today are not going to be there when the market matures. By nature, technological disruption breakthroughs are unpredictable so you can't reliably pick winners. The potential for reward is still exponential but you have to be able to actively trade those positions on the short and long side using options to enhance return. I've been test running a portfolio based loosely on your portfolio. I've been short since November and played strategic options and gone briefly long on technical indicators. Since November it went from 100k to 340K. I would offer a humble recommendation that you introduce an actively traded element to the portfolio not just to hedge but to enhance the return. Of course there's a limit of scale but as it stands your ETF is hobbled by being a one way street committed to long term holdings of companies, 90% of which are going to blow up. I would love to discuss it more with you. You have the power and potential to make ARKK's performance increase exponentially with the right active management strategy.
yes, the deflationary pressures will be on Household goods and consumer products. Televisions, cars, furniture, household goods, ect. However, the inflation pressures will continue with food, gas, travel and other areas of the economy. We are living in a very fascinating, concerning and interesting times.
So you predict recession on the one hand and equity bull market on the other? Someone square that circle for me please?
It's interesting to listen to Cathy. Her view on inflation is baffling in the sense that it disregards the money supply issues through asset purchases by the FED. And as we know inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
She's a good example of a finance person who doesn't understand monetary policy.
You address the demand side but not the supply side. There will still be strong supply side inflationary pressure that the Fed will have to tighten into.
Hi Katy! I would love to hear from you guys your reasoning of having as Roku as top holding compared to Tesla. Thanks!
Affordability
Tony Seba, in his talk to the council of state governments east Aug 17th, under-spoke of what he called "turmoil" and "swirling turmoil" in economies resultant from the economic transformation. Better characterizations are volatility, economic and social violence - as old. stranded industries grasp to hold on. Second, Peter Zeihan's talks and books are very helpful as he looks at demographics and geography to lead economic trends. It's unfortunate that ARK closed the comments on their recent interview with Zeihan.
The problem with the thesis that excess inventories will lead to lower prices is the following.......increased fuel prices might induce companies to keep prices high.....fuel costs are enormous for Walmart and target....
At last, someone who's not a sycophant.
Not only that, they are only 3 examples in an economy of 1000s.
Companies can’t just hoard inventory forever, and they’ll need to show cash flow on their quarterly earnings regardless of the profitability of said goods.
Also, Walmart and Target may on be two companies out of thousands, but they’re two of the largest. Every average consumer shops at Walmart - if their earnings are slowing, then the economy is slowing.
Thank you. You have been consistent about inventories for the past year and this week proved it.
We have a Eropean war and are coming out of a global pandemic. Take a look at 1917 - 1918, the last time the world had a European war & was coming out of a global pandemic. Inflation rocketed for two years and then crashed.
1 Inventory build up
2 supply > demand
3 prices drop
4 consumer can hence afford more
5 company beats guidance
6 equity bull market
The biggest inflationary item you were completely wrong on and keep ignoring is energy prices. High energy prices trickle down too all other products.
The democrats like high energy prices the average person will use less fuel can't let a crisis without taking advantage of it.
@@miltonbassett1303 I'd reather vote for cheap gas and no democracy. 😂
down 50% in my purchased ARKK ARKG ARKF... still hold and see how the things going on...
Cathie Wood is a definition of confirmation bias.
When ARKK is up ' We were right'
When ARKK is down 'The market got it wrong'
🤣🤣🤣
Nailed it! She has not adjusted to this obvious stagflation environment.
What options Fed has besides raising rates to curb inflation? Give real solutions pls
What a great surprise to wake up to a special video of you Cathie and an another expert subject matter discussing economic activities, inflation and deflation. In times of turbulence and many" experts" out there pushing the wrong rhetoric, this is reassuring for sure. Thank you!
You are right ... in long term the deflation is knocking on the door ... while shortly most/all countries have to fight against inflation.
Solid analysis. Doesn’t change the fact most of your holdings are not disruptive. Poor choices overall. ARKK SOS!
Such a great video! Two incredibly intelligent women. I could listen to you both discuss anything and everything all day long. I love this point of view, I agree with this outlook and I can’t wait until it all comes to fruition. I know you’ll stay humble when it’s proven you were right the entire time.😍
Great but when is ARKK funds going back up? its down like 75% and a lot of ppl lost so much money.
My most looked forward to podcast!
As TSLA shareholder: Covid, lockdowns, parts shortages, and the macro environment conspiring together has been the black swan event. Perhaps, now, the stock has priced it in and has bottomed.
No where near.
Um, no. Buckle up. The everything bubble, mixed with NWO implementation, is not a joke nor something to be taken lightly.
🇺🇲
Nope that things going to maybe 300 maybe less
@@wolfiestreet6899 where do you think the bottom is?
Looks like that bear market rally might be over. SARK still looks great into the foreseeable future!
You say that tangible assets will excel, yet the Fed has been talking tough about real estate and it appears they will be focusing their policy changes in order to reduce costs-of-living.
It seems like the environment will support the tangible assets you mention until the Federal Reserve gets up and starts front-running rate hikes until they see the edge of a recession, which will *also* naturally clear away some of the inflation.
Excellent content. Thank you
The video cuts prematurely towards the end at 37min
Thank you for showing me how to lose money more efficiently. That is very very innovative!
Thank you, you made it simple, plan, and, even common people could understand
Thank you Cathie and Nancy. I really appreciate the insights you shared in this video. I'm going to watch a second time to make sure I didn't miss anything!
It is interesting that the more you talk about deflation, the higher the inflation rate becomes. I think innovation does bring a deflationary effect but not sufficient cause a deflation.
It won't be close to being sufficient. Even with current technologies, true inflation is over 20 percent.
If only the government stopped spending money created out of nothing by the FED... We need this inflationary bubble to be brutal, it is the only way people will learn
With Cathie Wood and the great US economists
Who can answer my following questions?
1. Is the Deflation the best way/weapon to deal with the Inflation? If the answer is not, why the FED is doing so right now?
2. Generally, Inflation and Deflation, which one is more harmful to the economy?
3. Throughout the history, the Inflation is everlasting. How much the health inflation rate should be?
4. Inflation is not just a national phenomena, but also a international phenomena. So, dealing with inflation, we should not just have a national view but also an international view.
My questions is, if in a quite long period of time(let's say 10 years or 20 years), A country keeps having higher inflation rate than B country, and meanwhile the currency exchange rate between A and B was almost a constant , does that mean as the time goes, the people in A country will be much more richer than the people in B country?
That's what happened between the US and China in last 20 years. That's why we see everything is more and more expensive , because we are more and more poor than the Chinese.
From another article, the inflation rate is much higher for goods, services are only 3.5% which says it is still a supply shock issue.
I'm in the print business for over 35 yrs. It is actually quite busy right now, the problem is getting supplies, paper (I have orders where I have to wait weeks for carbonless stock) and months for thing like toner for my digital press. It is literally unprecedented. But as another person pointed out below, many stores are having difficulty getting staff.
Probably deflation talk is annoying to anyone experiencing high food and gas prices
Excellent! Love hearing Nancy!!
a Question for Cathy & ARK: IF the Fed just doesn't change its current relatively Hawkish stance, will 'Value Stocks' be the better bet for the average investor moving forward? i know ARK tends to focus on 'Growth Stocks' but maybe, with this current Fed policy, we really are in a new Paradigm that has to be adjusted for?
maybe an 'ARKV' (V for 'Value') can be offered, i'd be interested in it!
Growth and especially tech stocks will continue to be in a bear market for the foreseeable future.
Value historically outperforms growth, in the last 14 years growth has outperformed, a reversion to the historical trend is only natural
There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.
the only thing disruptive i see is my money getting cut in half. i'll see yall in the breadlines
No comments yet? I guess people had it with Cathie saying that her stock picks were in "deep value territory" when arkk stock was at $120.00+
its obviously both, inflation in commodities (food ,energy) and deflation in financial assets (stocks, bonds)
Great guest. Thanks Cathie!
Short-term draw downs from everywhere: crypto, stocks, real estate, and labour market with pull back in both monetary and fiscal globally is bound to lower demand. Large inventory supplies would combine to lower prices. What puzzles me is the long-term secular trends. I wonder if it is possible to quantify deglobalization, demographics and innovation against increasing labour costs, geo-political conflict and the energy transition costs. Would the sum of structural forces be net inflationary or net deflationary? Cathie and econ geeks watch a video series on INET (institute for new economic thinking) called [eco]nomics. Ecology, and thermodynamics are data points that will be structural features of macro perspectives sooner than anyone realizes. GDP surely doesn’t measure the digital sphere, but neither does it show decommodification dynamics, or entropy.
Very interesting contrarian view backed up with data facts. Keep your powder dry, because if Wood is right, it's going to be like removing a weight from a coiled spring. Everyone is now talking about how we're in the 70's all over again, how we're looking at years of stagflation, with the fed having no choice but to crank rates up to 7, 8, 9%. When "everyone knows," it's usually wrong. If this plays out, we could have one of the most dramatic V reversals as everyone rushes back into the deep end of the pool. The last quarter could be VERY good for the market. I'd love to see the market sell off between now and the end of September.
Everyone doesn't know this. Stagflation is unavoidable. Either that or hyperinflation. The bubbles must pop eventually, and this looks to be in process now.
this is kind of crazy to see.
The vast majority of comments on this video are positive and thankful.
I have not seen that on hardly any channels at all.
Strength in the dollar disinflationary…really? Where is the playing out?
Quality content.. Thanks Mrs. Woods and ark..
Inflation right now is obvious. Stagflation is likely the current state. Deflation is in the future, just not sure how quick it will arrive?
Maybe this little fact will help you. The Black Swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
I hope Nancy and Cathie are right, but I worry that they find what they want to find. It can happen to anyone including people at the top of their field. I have no idea what will happen, but I do enjoy getting this point of view to counter the doom and gloom crowd.
Thank you for the clear analyses. Our situation is quite historically unique, and it’s difficult for even experienced professionals to understand the dynamics.
"Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard."
- Edgar Fielder
Hyperinflation is coming, and will completely destroy America.
America: 1776 - 2020 🇺🇲
So that will take a year or two to work through the system and balance out ....?
Thank you for taking the time to make this video. Much appreciated. Love your work.
Waiting for the blessings to manifest in the presence of the Ark
Would you mind adding links for things like Nancy's charts?
That's also a really awkward slide to shove in at 37:00.
Best discussion on macro trends! Thank you for sharing! 😊
I think you are right, but it’s a tough sell right now. Lots of new investors have not been through rough times - I deal with it by focusing on other things in my life. Good luck with your investments.
Many thanks for this Cathie and Nancy. We only get to hear such valuable insights only because of disruptive innovations like the internet and UA-cam. in the past, people would have to fork out thousands for professional consultations.
Wonderful points. Thank you Cathie 😊
Kathie made gains in a market where it was impossible not to make gains. And now, the world is revealing that the Emperor has no clothes.
Prices are crazy, thank goodness I have a little bit of savings but if this goes on for several years my savings will be gone. I hope prices drop very soon. This is terrible for so many!
Check minute 37:10 if you didn't notice.
And thanks for the update :)!
Shelves are bare everywhere, you two have this stuff backwards.
Thank you for sharing. Thank you for your work. I know that these are turbulent times but I truly think that on the long run you will be Wright
Even if inflation tops out and moves back down, prices will stay elevated indefinitely
Thank you Cathie and Nancy! Real women are full of surprises!! 😎🤙
Great points!! We including you and us, have been penalized so much. Let's see who is the final winner!!
Just gonna keep saying "dIsRuPtIVe" until all her cash's gone... and yours.
I admire the conviction.
Thank you for the great insight i.e. elaborating on factors contributing to deflationary pressure, two big question marks remain:
1. high energy prices? (slow pace of transformation to renewables, Ukraine conflict, lower domestic oil & gas output)
2. do you see re-shoring of supply chains really happen that quickly?
Where are you seeing Target 'marking down prices?' I watch it closely and my stores are all still increasing prices. And many shelves are still not well stocked.
Cathy last comments about inflation before Nancy spoke were edited by u tube.I did not hear them
Cathy What about inflation expectations fueling more inflation?
Great call on inventories going back to last year!
The video has a problem in 37m ... returns to the beginning ... tks for the insite
Always, a pleasure to listen to Cathie. Thank you!!!
Great video! Thanks Cathie & Nancy. From a manufacturing disruption point of view, which companies will likely disrupt Cisco in the long run?
Yeah but if there is high demand a businessman will respond by buying a larger inventory (at a lower price). So maybe the large inventories reflect the expectation of high demand in future duh. If the inventory purchases are larger on companies side, the individual unit value of the inventory is less, which means the profit margin should remain more or less the same even if they reduce price for consumer, and voila, in a deflating economy companies profit and consumers get lower prices! Unless you are overleveraged of course, in which case this doesn't really apply. Principle may also vary depending on product type and industry.
Thanks for the insights Cathie and Nancy!