The Superforecast revolution has been transformed by AI. The new book, The Bubble That Broke the Bank, reviews how AI Real Estate Almanac, 2026 changes the prediction landscape.
I predicted the US would become more nationalistic and protectionist, and would begin to reject globalization. Which wasn't a hard thing to do. A clear look at history demonstrates following a serious recession, powerful countries err toward nationalism and war. And this wasn't just Trump, Clinton and Obama set the ball rolling with their clear intervention against Russian interests in Ukraine. Trump just changed the emphasis of the anti-globalization - from Russia to China. I also predict that the current populism/ nationalism will also fail, with a return to globalization inevitable, given ultimately cultural concerns will give way to economic interests. How long this takes is the question, but it's an inevitable process, The shelf life for Rightist conservatism is around 40 years. As in Spain, Portugal. Greece, in the mid seventies, the forces of Liberalism will inevitably regroup, given the Right has little or nothing economic to offer the middle classes. The opiates of Religion and National renewal, soon grow stale. And my guess is, in a global interconnected world rightist populism will grow stale much quicker. maybe a shelf life of ten years. In fact backlashes against Putin, Erdogan, Trump, Orban, Johnson - could happen much sooner than that
GJOpen is the place to try it for yourself. Several Challenges currently in process :) with ongoing scoring as questions close.
+Elaine Rich gjopen.com
My life finally makes sense.
For those interested you can follow me and Elaine on Twitter: @weltonchang and @allmyalibis
The Superforecast revolution has been transformed by AI. The new book, The Bubble That Broke the Bank, reviews how AI Real Estate Almanac, 2026 changes the prediction landscape.
27:03 Mulder's dad. Real life.
just awesome... is there any possibility to join? :) In case you need a consult on Ukraine and post-Soviet space and Kremlin
I predicted the US would become more nationalistic and protectionist, and would begin to reject globalization.
Which wasn't a hard thing to do. A clear look at history demonstrates following a serious recession, powerful countries err toward nationalism and war.
And this wasn't just Trump, Clinton and Obama set the ball rolling with their clear intervention against Russian interests in Ukraine.
Trump just changed the emphasis of the anti-globalization - from Russia to China.
I also predict that the current populism/ nationalism will also fail, with a return to globalization inevitable, given ultimately cultural concerns will give way to economic interests.
How long this takes is the question, but it's an inevitable process,
The shelf life for Rightist conservatism is around 40 years. As in Spain, Portugal. Greece, in the mid seventies, the forces of Liberalism will inevitably regroup, given the Right has little or nothing economic to offer the middle classes.
The opiates of Religion and National renewal, soon grow stale.
And my guess is, in a global interconnected world rightist populism will grow stale much quicker. maybe a shelf life of ten years. In fact backlashes against Putin, Erdogan, Trump, Orban, Johnson - could happen much sooner than that