This is Getting Worse than the 1929 and 2008 Yield Curve Inversions…
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
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In this video, we analyze the recent uninversion of the U.S. yield curve, a signal historically linked to upcoming recessions and market downturns. We explore past instances, including 2007, 2000, and even the Great Depression, and discuss the potential implications for today's economy and stock market. With insights into how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affects the yield curve, we assess whether the current signal is a warning of a looming recession or a whipsaw event, and share our strategic approach to navigating these uncertain times.
DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!
After the curve uninverts and hits positive .5, is when, historically, all hell breaks loose.
Once I enter _any_ market, it immediately collapses!
So, until I buy some S&P500 stocks, the market will _never_ collapse!
I’ve been waiting for market to drop for 3 years and have totally missed the best of times in market. SMH 😢
keep waiting!!. no such events will happen in near term!
Is there an online free chart that tracks this yield curve on a daily basis? I can't find one.
If it’s of any consolation, I’ve been the same way. The inversion of the yield curve sent me into hiding when it comes to investing. I think the psychology of having no trust in the US government also contributed to this sense of pending financial doom.
Yeah, you still have a couple of months of growth though. Before the big crash that is.
I don't agree that the 2000's tech bubble bursting triggered the recession. Rather, I would argue that the tightening financial conditions ultimately lead to the bursting of the tech bubble. Therefore, the tech bubble bursting was at best coincident to the recession, and possibly even should be considered a consequence of the tightening financial conditions that set the stage for the recession. I don't agree that a "catalyst" is needed to "trigger" a recession. There are always catalysts all around, but we're not seeing a recession resulting from the war in Ukraine, or the war in Gaza, or etc. What will happen is that, where the next recession occurs, pundits and analysts will be reaching for some superficial narrative to blame as a catalyst for the recession. And, as always, there'll be plenty of things that the blame could be pinned on. Ultimately, the real explanation will be boring old monetary policy and financial conditions, with some lag effects delaying the onset of an official recession.
August correction was due to the Yen carry over, the bond market reacted. The bond market didn't cause the August dip.
10Y/3mo yield curve is still massively inverted (130bps). The 10Y/2Y briefly un-inverted on 8/28 (by 1bp) which is probably what this is referring to. The 10Y and 2Y are now both at 3.91%. Please get the basic facts straight before publishing.
The reason why the yield curve has remained inverted much longer than normal WITHOUT seeing a "technical" recession is simple. The Government is deficit spending as if the economy is already in a recession. Actual deficit spending according to DEBTCLOCK is now over $2T this year. That means deficit spending is at 7% of GDP this year, which only happens during recessions. Therefore we are avoiding the "technical" definition of recession the yield curve inversion predicts... because government deficit spending has filled in the gap of decreased corporate and personal spending. LAST GDP print was for 3% annualized growth. That's 3% of 28T roughly, which is real GDP growth of $840B... but government is borrowing and spending $2T this year. IF the government had a balanced budget the US would already be in a very severe recession. The questions are... will this deficit spending cause a rebound in inflation... and what happens if the massive US government debt reaches the point where the buyers of bonds demand a higher rate than the FED wants. That's when it gets interesting! AS long as these 2 events don't occur, you are most likely to see a "melt up" in the stock markets that will be quite impressive as so many are now predicting a serious correction or crash... thats not when they happen... thus the melt up in markets will be impressive until all the bears have been forced to cover and cash on the sidelines has been dumped into the markets... then we can see a serious correction like in 2008, IMHO.
1:01 this is not the 10y - 3 months, but the 10y-2y yield curve
so, now we are at about 700 days of inverted yield curve...
Is there an online free chart that tracks this yield curve on a daily basis? I can't find one.
Yup. It's hard to find good timeseries of 2yr and 10yr yields in 1928-29, but I believe this has been the longest 10/2 inversion on record. Seems reasonable to expect the downturn will not be a mild one.
the first time that it is soooo long , only printing money , thats way in 2000 and 2007 not so long
As soon as there is a shred of doubt that the central banks won’t bail the markets out, that will be the tipping point.
Buy gold. Pray. Hug your family. Wait. Buy the dip. 🎉
Wow, amazing comment
I agree with this guy. Buy digital gold
Good time to prospect if in a rare metals bearing region. If the dollar collapse and gold is valued at 50k/oz, the flour gold from moss could feed a family
What dip?
In a massive upcoming market carnage?
Foolish to catch that kind of knife.
Yep depression coming, with the massive debt bubble we have to we’re in trouble. I honesty think our government will start a major war so we don’t have a civil war at home.
My thoughts exactly, the military bases they're building all around China will start heating up😂😂😂
The Pacific will burn again, just like it did 100 years ago
“But this time is different”
Monty Python endless running gag… seems so far away then BAM
Savings rate is already as bad as 2008 so if we cant admit were in recession now then how bad will this be when we actually fall into one
It’s not a whipsaw moment. The federal reserve is getting ready to lower the fed funds rate and that will affect the short end the curve more than the long end. After September 18th the steepening will be even faster.
we had a gold reserve waaay back. 2008 we had the equity of lands
2024 we have the equity of debt, and debt alone.
Excellent as usual. I'm a happy subscriber ... I like all your videos and explanations. Great. 👍
so how much longer is a guess for this rally to continue based on past examples?
dont buy overbought equities. everything feels overbought which is why i have hedged many of my positions. im mostly selling very out of the money put options these days. like 100$ nvidia puts and 167$ amazon puts. the premiums arent impressive but a small profit is better than no profit
Along with the AI bubble and rising unemployment, there are many other signals for a recession. And I would like a recession now rather than later because the impact could be much greater than the 1929 crash by postponing.
What you showed is when the recession occurs, where you have 2 negative quarters of GDP, the TOP occurs 6-8 months BEFORE the recession.
so should I sell all my stocks / etfs? I've been passively putting money into stocks / etfs for the past 2 years and I'm up 12% overall. Maybe best to sell and wait?
Can someone explain the different types of yield curves?
10 year minus 2 year
10 year minus 2 months
10 year minus fed rates
Is there an online free chart that tracks this yield curve on a daily basis? I can't find one.
How do i get the data for that chart going back to 1921?
Don’t know if anyone cares; we’ll base range in the next 2-4%.. then 75% drop around Dec ‘25-Jan ‘26. I said good day, sir!
So after the fed rate cut on September 18 I’m going long on SQQQ, SPXU, QQQD, and TLT.
So how many more months we have of good times? I'm thinking July next year
Can you give us a cause of this comming recession not just inflation like the 70s , what is the actuall caue like Sub-Prime etc, not just technical analysis?
This time it’s the China housing market which is sending deflationary pressures around the globe.
I tend to agree, especially when other recession indicators also present, even the transition sector declining etc
Great analysis, thank you! Just a quick off-topic question: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (air carpet target dish off jeans toilet sweet piano spoil fruit essay). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
US03MY contains more whipsaw signals. Very short, lower accuracy
Great video! Hoping for the covid 2020 lows! Then I'm grabbing what I can with both hands...
Question, shouldnt we use the 3 month treasury bill yield in our comparison?
I dobut there would be a inversion anymore when dollar collaspe. No one want to touch the bond
I see the US dollar exchange rate is appreciating again. So it is probably that the yield curve will re-inverting for a while, and stock market will reach its new high. Then, when the yield curve rising again, the recession is there.
Great analysis!!!!!
Is the money in treasuries safe?
Keep out of anything risky like bitcoin and crypto
Is this time different?
The Yen carry trade still has (by some estimates), many trillions left to unwind. Is this the catalyst black swan?
On Quawk Box CNBC August 5 2024, Chicago FED President A. Goolsbee publicly confessed 10/2 Spread briefly Un-Invert during his Tv interview for the first time after a long 2 year Inversion
10Y/2Y is still inverted. Being non-inverted for one hour doesn't count.
Why is the screen only part of the video?
Great Strategy. Long but fully hedged...hahaha
Basically, like everyone else, you have no clue of what will happen other "right now it goes up or down" and one day there will be a recession. For trading, that is useless.
So you can either sit it out, waiting for a crash, or you can hold as a long-term investment. Indeed you sold out in July so looks like you are sitting it out, waiting for a crash.
Great video thanks for all the info
Horde cash, enjoy the free 5% return and be in a great position to buy across the board at rock bottom prices.
Any data from before 1921?
Are you saying get out meow?
Can you do some charts showing how real estate volume plays into all this?
Is there an online free chart that tracks this yield curve on a daily basis? I can't find one.
Less jobs = less people buying homes
What do you mean by real estate volume? Permits? New listings? contracts closed? what would you put on the X and Y axis?
Where do you get all knowledge from
It happens when it happens. If you look at the broader global markets, every major economy is struggling. At some point it will break. Be ready. Best of luck.
Very interesting content🔥👍
Dump it
This is 10-2 year, not 10y - 3m
I'm inverted 😑
This is Bidenomics, and it's working.
Sell everything and put it under your mattress. And live poor for the rest of your life
!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.
still remained room to 1 last rally up .....but @ elections shit will hit the fan !
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?
IT IS COMING!
reversion
😮😮😮😮 the callapse of AI is incoming!!!!
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio?, I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
🎉
Robinson Christopher Lewis Nancy Williams Joseph
We must do whatever it takes to keep the stock market going up.
😮
Up
OMG
AI Bubble Bust?
😮😮😮😮
Day 632 of calling for a crash
First
Sqqq/vixy for the win
I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls! I lost so much money on stook market but now making around $18k to $21k every week trading different stocks and cryptos