The New Optimism, with Matt Ridley, Johan Norberg, David Runciman and Laura Kuenssberg
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- Опубліковано 19 лют 2017
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Are you an optimist or a pessimist? And why should it matter? After what for many of us has been an annus horribilis in 2016, pessimists seem to have all the best tunes. Terror attacks, horror headlines from Syria, a tide of hatred and resentment poisoning our politics: the world looks increasingly grim. But what about the actual facts? If you step back and examine the data, it’s clear that life is better today for the majority of people than at any previous time in history. And we’re not just talking about the developing world, where progress has been remarkable. Here in the West, most of us have never had it so good. Just look at the improvements in health and longevity, the breadth of entertainment available, and the opportunities to travel that we blithely take for granted.
In this special Intelligence Squared event, we examined two fundamentally opposing worldviews. In the optimists’ corner were Matt Ridley, author of the prize-winning The Rational Optimist, and Johan Norberg, whose latest book is Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future. They argued that the progress that has been made over the past centuries - whether in education, child labour, poverty or violent deaths - is now running at an unprecedented pace and that there is every reason to think that it will continue for decades to come.
But is their essentially rationalist approach one that can really explain what appears to be the conflict-ridden world we live in? After all, many of us have never felt so gloomy and perplexed. This tension is not new. It has run through mainstream political thought since the Enlightenment. It set rationalists such as Adam Smith and J. S. Mill against those who sought to interpret the darker side of human nature such as Rousseau and Dostoevsky. They have been joined more recently by behavioural economists such as Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler. For these latter thinkers, rationalism will always fail to give a full account of human behaviour. Exploring this line of thought in our event was the acclaimed political scientist David Runciman. And steering the discussion was the BBC’s star political editor Laura Kuenssberg.
Optimist or pessimist? Some say that pessimism is dangerous, as it’s the emotions of fear and nostalgia that are fertile breeding grounds for populist demagogues. Others argue that too optimistic a view can blind us to the real threats facing our freedoms and democracy.
All panelists were so wrong about Trump and so ignorant of the woeful alternative Hillary Clinton, that it makes what ever else they say hard to take seriously.
In 1968 I got married as a junior in college. Wife and I worked on campus - zero aid. We paid two tuition bills, had our own apartment ($75 a month in St. Paul: $150 in Berkeley), and bought a new car in 1969. So if you wanted to go to college, afford housing and buy a car on $2 an hour, you were way better off in 1968 Minneapolis. But TV and long distance telephone were both expensive and no computers. Had to do with movies and books. And the Rolling Stones instead of Beonce.
The Lady is the only one that actually got why we voted for Trump. Enough of them Elitists telling us what is good or bad for US!
What's that then? The preponderance of thick morons willing to chant U-S-A, U-S-A.
Great talk.
The future's so bright, ya gotta where shades!
Yes, playing hide and seek with your sunglasses is always fun.
"the chances of war on the continent of Europe is very, very remote."
Norberg points out the 1960s as a particularly bad time in US political history which is strange given this was the decade that saw African Americans agitating for-- and finally securing-- the rights they had been denied for centuries and what Chomsky has described as a period of 'civilizing' for the American people. Additionally, pointing towards Trump as a particularly malignant breach in the historical pattern is problematic given how many nations (almost exclusively Muslim) were bombed under Bush and Obama.
Meditate and every moment becomes fresh anew and full of possibility. Those who want to build empire hell with them because empire builders are amoral people they cause huge pains to the natives.
42:18 sike
''In the 21st century, everything that did go wrong politically, did go wrong!'' perfectly sums up Norberg's myopic worldview in a single sentence. All the independence movements in the global South that finally broke the spell of rapacious Western imperialism were a hugely positive political development, but of course his Euro-centric vision does not allow for such an acknowledgment. Furthermore, the moral egregiousness of abject poverty in an era where it could be easily eradicated with trivial costs - but yet isn't - is a much more damning indictment of the prevailing economic system than either Ridley or Norberg would admit.
At another point, Norberg talks about how certain parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are a snapshot of Britain in the 1700s-- while conveniently skipping over the part where Britain's enrichment from this point onwards was largely predicated on the immiseration of the African, American and Indian Sub-Continent. Of course, with such an insular, West-centric worldview, things might look exceedingly optimistic but it's a luxury afforded by the bubble he inhabits.
The question is, is innovation the most important aspect of life?
Well, when you woke up today what did you do, think about it of all the innovation is been done just for your morning.
Lots of people who think innovation, machine and robotics are taking jobs away, well NO.
Just think how many people is needed to, think, concept, fisability study, financing, engineering, designing, modeling, testing, fabricating, marketing, selling.
So,,,,,where're you going to find those people? Oh the one unemployed? NO.
Because of the schooling infrastructure is completely wrong.
And you all know.
So again, innovation is what humans have as a tools to pursue freedom and oh yes happiness too.
I'm curious if they still think the same about Trump. Back then you really couldn't know, if he does what he says. Now we got a lot of things that seem to be better than we might have expected.
Yeah... and half a million dead from a virus that would disappear "like a miracle". I'm sure history will remember Trump really well...
@@MultiWalrus1 If Biden were president would the numbers be different? What would his number be?
I don't want to claim that Trump is doing better or worse on the Virus. It is really difficult to say. But what I'm aware of is that each person and especially the media is putting their own spin on it. Just compare how people talk when Trump walks down a ramp slowly and when Biden stumbles up a stair. Or when people die in a BLM protest and when people die in a rightwing protest. Completely different coverage with comparable circumstances.
@@benrex7775 That footage of Biden falling up the stairs has been played and replayed everywhere on all news channels. You seem to be suffering from “Trump Victim Syndrome”... a nasty alternative to TDS 😄 as for Trump’s COVID response, it was a disaster, and it’s not hard to imagine Biden (or anyone) doing better than he did. Just believing the epidemiologists would have been a start.
@@MultiWalrus1 No, I suffer from the barely listening to the media Syndrome. Also I'm not American. As long as they don't get replaced by China or Russia as the world power I don't really care what happens over there. As long as the voters get what they voted for. And since Biden is in power now you are probably happy with the result. Which is fine by me.
Also there are 12 countries which did worse when it comes to death per 100'000 people. Apparently he is not the worst in the world. (according to Wikipedia) And the list is probably not entirely accurate. Because there is no way that China only had 100k sick and 5k death from Covid.
Why does the one guy keep mentioning 50 years as if things have been getting better for 50 years. Poverty and undernourishment is a few hundred year story. Child mortality is a 200 year story. Homicide has been getting better for centuries and likely millennia. Judicial torture and human sacrifice and slavery and many things from the past have been getting better. And not just for 50 years. Homicide is a way bigger thing than war deaths but I think this guy only can focus on war perhaps. I have no idea why he keeps suggesting things have only been getting better for 50 years. Infectious diseases, not a 50 year story. Many of these things go back much farther than 50 years.
H keeps calling it a “50 year story”. Why is no one asking him why he has labelled it that.
Poverty and undernourishment go back to the Stone Age.
1:00:58
Prediction 1, that uk would not leave: Bit vague what it means exactly or how to define it, and he should have mentioned the time limit, but i think that his prediction were wrong
prediction 2, that donald trump wouldnt serve a full presidency has been proven wrong
To the Italian woman who asks the question at the end regarding her twelve year old son’s concern .. I would have brought up the destructive force of fear mongering being used as a political weapon... and to blame Italy’s woes on Berlusconi is far too simplistic.. most present day Italians are blaming Mafia, corruption, EU policies and overloaded bureaucracy. Berlusconi didn’t do anything positive but nor did he do any long term damage.. in my opinion. Similarly the Trump bashing continues .. Trump may be using trade as a weapon but as yet he has not forceable gone into a Middle Eastern country and bombed the hell out of it or removed a dictator leaving a void for god knows what to fill it.. yes, he may sell weapons to the Saudis but then so do the U.K. and many other countries.. he’s not ideal .. but then was Hillary? Between optimism and pessimism there’s fifty shades of middle road and therein lies the beautiful balance.. What we should be showing our children is how to seize the moment, keep most things in the day and possibly a trust in divine goodness otherwise known as God. I loved the Swedish guy’s comment on Brexit... a very enjoyable and interesting debate.
min 12, .... and 3 years after he was saying these.....
Mr pessimist hasn't looked at the US economy lately. That's why we voted for him.
This is exactly what I was wondering. What are Norberg and Riley going to say about the Trump presidency after the fact? With all the talk about actual vs. superstitious, it seems to me they should be able to at least separate the chaff from the wheat with regards to Trump. It seems like a fairly simple task. He says alot of stupid things that don't bear much resemblance to what he's direction he's going. Besides, it's not like Trump has a monopoly on stupidspeak - it's pretty well distributed all around us.
Here is my prediction for the future, next 100 years. In Indonesia they are developing a new type of nuclear power right now. (Thorcon Power) the first commercial reactor will be on-line in about 5 years. They will start out slowly powering Indonesia, but that will spread fast. Clean, safe, cheap reliable electricity and industrial heat will spread all across Asia. Then I will spread globally. Energy will no longer be a problem, not free by any means, just affordable, cheaper than coal. This will be the catalyst for bringing billions of people out of poverty. population growth will slow with this progress. The future's so bright, ya gotta where shades!
Just looked up Thorcon. Interesting.
A strangely Trump obsessed conversation
Which is more threatening, global warming or the Trump presidency?
Trump’s presidency was arguably the best in decades and your global warming alarmism is getting a bit old
Elephant in the room: climate change.
Not really mate. It’s a nothing burger, even if IPCC worst case scenario happens.
@@NoRegertsHere phew, that’s a relief! 😅 for a moment there I was really worried 😂
@@MultiWalrus1 🖖🏿👌🏿
The swedish guy just repeats all the modern superficial cliches, typical CATO guy. David Runciman is the only one saying something interesting.
Norberg's whole point is that the vast majority of people are remarkably ignorant about what is going on on the ground (vs. in their head). Runciman has absolutely nothing to say about the future except an unsubstantiated pessimism based on utterly arbitrary starting point - the two world wars.
what a load of bullshit