According to UNICEF an additional 7,000,000 children are now suffering acute malnutrition … 168,000,000 children have missed an entire year of school … An additional 140,000,000 children are now living below the poverty line … All directly attributed to covid measures. (UNICEF data).
The graph is a little deceptive: the "Deadliness" axis starts logarithmic up to 10%, and then is linear. It is common to signify this by a break in the axis if there's a scale change.
I think that there is an important information that is missing here. The deadliness of the Covid virus is especially high for the over 70s, relatively moderate for 50s-70s. Yes, I know that there are younger people that die of Covid, but it is very very rare, while flu deaths distribution is different. Also polio and measles deaths are very high among children.
For those infected but have recovered, I think lingering symptoms - "long covid" - are a differentiator too. And that is spread over several age ranges.
@@lgrinaker If we discuss the entire disease not just the deaths, yes it would be relevant. But considering the long term effects of Polio and Measles survivors, Covid long term would go to the bottom.
That's a fair point. I also wonder how we can confidently compare Flu to Covid 19, when to the best of my understanding we have never analysed flu anything remotely like Covid. Along with questionable tests, and death numbers attributed to it.
@@shepchester3567 We know (for example) a bad flu year would cause around 650,000 global deaths. Covid, even with restrictions and social distancing is more than double.
1% infection fatality? that doesn't add up, it may be about right for those who develop a degree of disease but once we take into account asymptomatic or very mild disease I'm not convinced.
Next time make sure to rate flu/unvaccinated vs. flu vaccinated vs covid unvaccinated and covid vaccinated. This would be important for vaccinated hesitant. Or is the reason we don't have that information on a chart because there is little difference ?
Regarding the flu vaccine, if you have the jab and then get the flu anyway then you’re told it’s a different strain and that the jab only covers one predicted strain none of the others implying that there is 100% protection against the one strain they decided was going to be the most prevalent. 🤷🏽♀️
@@travelwell6049 I think you’ll find that the annual.’flu jab is based on the four previous worst strains. It’s not a one shot fixes all, but at the end of the day no vaccine is 💯 % effective. What works for some doesn’t work for all. That said I’ve had ‘flu jabs for almost a decade and touch wood 🪵, I haven’t caught it once.
Dr Moran has done a video containing a prepress study on transmission loads and duration of infectiousness which found levels were equal in vaccinated and unvaccinated inmates.
Tim - The death rate was shown at 1% right at the beginning yet now the variants are less deadly plus our treatments are also better so how come you still show it at 1%?
Exactly Tim, also Dr. John Ioannidis from Stanford has a much lower infection fatality rate. Which is much less than 1% and has not radically changed since the data from the Petri dish ship that was the ‘Diamond Princess’.
Have co morbidities been taken into consideration with all these illnesses? If you are on deaths door, a cold will kill you. If you catch rabies, it would just come quicker
There's something odd about Tim's chart and where Rabies is on it. Tim has it as very infectious and very deadly - much more so than Covid yet there's no panic about it?
I think this data is for pre-vaccination. We were seeing that sort of proportion a year ago but of course that has changed drastically now most people are vaccinated.
@@jareth0205 So with the vax giving >90% protection against death, that brings the fatality rate down to 0.1%, rather like flu - or am I missing something?
It's known that _at least_ 50% of the UK population have contracted Covid. So that's _at least_ 35 million people. If deaths are 1% then we would be seeing 350,000 deaths due to Covid. Where did you get this 1% figure?
The graph gives IFR = 1%, but that is with a completely naive population. Taking figures from our world in data the 7 - day rolling average for daily cases is 46k and deaths 120, so the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 0.26% with the the protection from vaccines and mitigation measures. The number of infections is underestimated when compare with the number of cases by a factor of 2 - 3, the IFR = 0.1%, with about 120,000 infections per day.
Perhaps another big difference is your funding source. Let's show that graph!!!! 5x and 10x could also be stated .5% or 1% different. Keep the fear alive TIM, keep your funding alive Tim. Oh, you forgot to include age and comorbidities in this 10X statement!!! Is that Untreated COVID? What happened to "GET HEALTHY" as the first line of defense!!!. BTW I have had covid, been vaxed and I am proactively healthy.
I'm on Day 7 since testing positive. Started with scratchy throat and blocked nose. Didn't change much until the weekend when I lost my sense of taste and smell. (Autocorrect tried to say humour, which is also fairly accurate 🤣). Today (Day 7) I'm starting to feel feverish. Thought by now I'd be over the worst of this. Double vaccinated (AZ) and probable Covid in Jan 2019 so am hoping there's still some memory cells floating around. Lesson is: if you think it's "just a cold" get tested as other symptoms may not appear for several days. I only took the PCR because I was a contact of a positive case.
@@hayleyward9332 Seriously you gotta have algorithm bots giving thumbs up for that comment because it's completely untrue. Yes the literally said for almost a year that getting these stopped you catching it or did you live on another planet?
@@wynbrown7321 do you not listen to the thousands of news reports and this channel that explicitly explain that vaccinations help reduce risk of contracting but don’t eliminate possibility altogether what they have been good at as you can see from daily death figures and high infection rate compared to last year is reducing deaths
@@wynbrown7321 In the same way wearing a seatbelt 100% prevents you being injured in a car crash? This is about hazard mitigation - not necessarily elimination. It's a much better idea to wear a seatbelt because it dramatically lowers your chances of hospitalization and death. Better vaccines will come out - the nasal spray vaccines will probably be very effective at preventing infection. Do you think the vaccine being 100% effective would change vaccine hesitant people's minds? The science is being honest about their efficacy, which is being used as a negative. The best vaccine in history could come out tomorrow - and it would change NOTHING. As it stands, the vaccines are awesome at mitigating the most serious aspects of the disease, unfortunately they aren't great(but still quite good) at long term permanent protection from infection.
@Tom That's not the point as some people will die 28 days after catching a cold even if it was not the cold that killed them so the stats would be skewed just as the current stats are !!
Tom - your missing the point! Die from (quote) "ANY REASON.... within 28 days of a positive test" Remember that catch phrase from the Covid death count? Usually followed by: (Quote) "With one or more serious underlying health conditions".... (I.e. More than one actual CAUSE) And / Or (Quote) "Where Covid....was MENTIONED on the death certificate." Remember those legal caveats on the BBC? So back to the OP's original question..... what if we did EXACTLY the same for a Cold?
I have not heard very much talk about health during this "health crisis". If the Western world wasn't so greedy and fat then there would have been much fewer deaths and we wouldn't be even thinking about vaccinating younger people. I'm tired of reading headlines about "20-something year old with no co morbidities on a ventilator" only to discover that they are 22 stone. What did the Government do? Close the parks and open McDonalds! it's YOUR body and YOUR responsibility.
COVID is nowhere near 10 times as deadly, based on various numbers it is 2 or three times as deadly if that, check the WHO and CDC estimates which put it between 0.1 and 0.5%. In the u.s. the numbers indicate about 0.3% using the estimates of actual infections rather than confirmed cases. There maybe other reasons to worry about covid but it is not the fatality rate. And the fatality rate with each variant appears to be reducing.
It depends if Zoe is using Case Fatality Rate or Infection Fatality Rates, as I have seen statisticians, politicians and media swap between them as if they are the same in order to create more fear. You may also note my comments above that the Covid stat is unvaccinated whereas the flu stat includes vaccinated, so it is not a true comparison.
@@adestegreenhalgh1180 hi Ade, I posted a reply to your request with links and it was deleted even though the links are cdc and who. The way the algorithms work for UA-cam are bizarre. I will post again today in separate posts.
Dr. Tim: Has the prescription of Medazolam, sometimes accompanied with Morphine, in nursing homes in the U.K. had any effect on the death rate from this virus? Could it have raised the 'deadliness' rating of this virus?
Apparently the government allegedly got the drug Medazolam from France, also I read it's one of the 3 drugs given to prisoners on death row in America. How bizarre and sinister
I may be wrong, but surely modern treatments medicine etc, make the comparison between Spanish flu and covid flawed ? If all covid patients were not treated then the death rate must increase a lot?
We didn't have that excuse in the Flu pandemics of 1957 and '68 which both still killed more then Covid in a shorter timeframe and had a median death age of under 40 as opposed to Covid which has a median death age well over 80.
There is another super important factor to compare, how much life-time, on average, does the illness take away. Spanish flew is estimated to have been 45 years. Covid, I'd bet, is closer to 1 year. In Canada, the average age of covid death is higher than the average life expectancy.
A far more useful statistic would be the expected years lost for each disease by age band. This would also show why polio and measles are such disasters as they affect the young disproportionately.
I usually respect what Tim has to say but he's talking nonsense here, we're in a Coronavirus "PANDEMIC" so yes of course more people will die then an endemic virus like the predominantly winter based Flu but what he failed to take into account is that we have advanced vaccines and better therapeutics to treat and manage Flu viruses every year to help keep the death rates down, if we took those pharmaceutical measures away the death tolls would be colossal and it wouldn't necessarily be a predominantly elderly demographic succumbing to it either. Now that we have supposedly efficacious vaccinations and oral drugs to suppress Covid's impacts healthcare systems should be able to manage it much better and refocus their attention on the huge backlog of other health conditions, anymore Government restrictions on society and people's livelihoods will be devastating for both people's mental wellbeing aswell as the economy and nobody's health benefited from becoming poorer.
@@adamknight7041 3000 people died of flu in 2 years, 3819 died of covid in the last 28 days. Yes, we do have ways to mitigate its effects. Yes, it's still not the flu.
I find the graph very surprising. I always thought that the common cold was highly infectious, whereas HIV was not that infectious (0.1% per sex act, more or less). The graph shows the common cold not that infectious at all, and HIV very infectious. Is that graph really that accurate?
I agree, I must be misunderstanding the term "infectiousness" as I understood HIV and Rabies are not usualy transmitted via aerosols (its possible but according to CDC would only really occur in labworkers).
20% of people in South Africa are HIV positive, with probably a 2x unidentified ratio. If people ignore HIV in their sex life then yes, then it is this contagious. R0 is the number of people an infected person infects - in its entire life it remains ill … btw, b/c there are so many HIV hosts in SA, it is actually plausible that the Omicron variant may have come from such a host.
It is very infectious but evidently not as infectious as covid19 and chicken pox. Oddly I don’t believe I’ve had symptoms of chicken pox. My son had it at 21 when he went to uni and was very green for 10 days. All the advice that reduces spread of colds and flu also work with covid19 Primary problem with Christmas parties is that once we have a few drinks we naturally get closer to people and forget to distance etc best solution is to all do lateral flow tests which free from chemists and your local library 😊 Happy Christmas
The problem with Covid is not so much the 1% death rate but the possability of everybody getting it at once. If 30m people got it in the UK this winter then you can see that things could get very difficult. It really is just a numbers game...
What would life be like if we spent the money that went on track and trace on state of the art hospitals and nurses and training . Bet your life it would save more lives than some phone call telling you to stay home for 10 days
According to seroprevelace studies by the WHO on the average amount of antibodies within the global population the actual estimated median IFR for Covid is only around 0.2% not "1%" which is actually nearer the CFR. Approximately 90% of all infections for a virus of this type will go undiagnosed, so in reality approximately 5 million global deaths as a result of 3 to 4 billion infections as opposed to the much lower confirmed "case's" , when you put it like that it sounds alot less scary.
deadliness of 1% is pre-vaccine though, flu deadliness is post vaccination for many years, i would suspect the 1% for SARS-cov-2 will drop dramatically as immuno-familiarity increases
I thought the 1% figure was a bit odd as well. I thought we started off at around 1% but since then we've had vaccines and all these new treatments and better management of the illness, all of which reduce the death rate. I suspect that figure must be a little out of date - it would be good to know the current percentage
@@jasonandlynnechambers3420 read the data supplied by the World Health Organisation and CDC who have downgraded the IFR of this virus several times since the start of the pandemic.
It would be interesting to see that same graph in the Spring if the new OmiCON variant takes off in the way everyone's saying, wipes out all other variants, and continues to fail to kill a single person....
It would be interesting to see 1,2 and boosted vaccinations plotted on the graph alongside flue and other diseases as well as age profiles - extra work but useful in assessing personal risk profiles.
Are these figures based on data of people that have died with 28 days of testing +, I would really like to know how many people have died from covid alone, without poor immune systems, obesity problems or any other life threatening illnesses, It may encourage people to reevaluate their lifestyles,diet etc, rather than relying on experimental vaccines which I worry will leave us in a similar situation we are in with antibiotics,
The graph is deliberately misleading … the scale changes from log to linear at 10%. And the data points are spurious … If you catch Covid .… and it turns to pneumonia and your kidneys fail. The death cert’ says Covid. If you catch a cold …. and it turns to pneumonia and your kidneys fail. The death cert’ says pneumonia/kidney failure. They are very clever people at Zoe … They know exactly what they are doing … I don’t know how they sleep at night.
@@Hickalum This was the issue I was highlighting. The count of 3000 deaths over 2 years was not including the 55,000 that died from influenza and Pnuemonia. However when counting Covid deaths it was all deaths where Covid is mentioned on the Death Cert. There is obviously a big difference between Covid and influenza I dont dispute that, its far worse, but the numbers werent compared fairly.
My first symptoms were mild headache and aching all over. Also sickness. Dihria. Then that stopped. Eventually lost taste. Still haven't got it back. On day 8. No other symptoms just the no taste.
@@mrwolf1964 Yet we're not all lucky enough to understand or used to reading research papers..and understanding the stats .. We all need to start somewhere...Rather an enquiring simple mind than a closed supposed educated one...Perhaps??
Thanks for the video, very informative as always. I just have one criticism regarding the graph axis. As the scale change below 10% serves against the point you are making. A linear scale would more easily get the point across
Absolutely correct, giving support to those who claim we’re being lied to yet again. Can’t anyone simply present the data properly so we can all try to understand?
@@patrickkoelling4212 if the graph was presented as you suggest all those under 1% would be on the bottom line and the differences undicernable. The graph has been specifically designed this way so that people with no statistics training can understand the information. Hope that helps.
@@timdenton8076 In fact, that doesn't help at all. It is those with no statistics knowledge, and those who don't scrutinize such things as ordinates, who are most fooled by "mistakes" in presentation such as this.
@@patrickkoelling4212 It is not a mistake, logarithmic scales are commonplace in science. You would need a graph about 100 times higher to display on a linear scale. They also help display the important first differential.
@@adestegreenhalgh1180 I’m sorry, but you cannot use a logarithmic scale to begin, then switch to a normal scale. That is just fibbing about the proper relationships between the objects of interest. If you want to use a logarithmic scale, fine, use one. This is NOT a logarithmic scale used throughout.
Personally I think its too early to draw conclusions and comparisons when most of the ailments its being compared with have been around for years and treatment protocols have been improved. Its clear that early in the pandemic treatment protocols were rudimentary and in some cases misplaced, health policy of putting elderly infected patients into nursing homes was wrong and the backdrop of low aged mortality in 2019 had lined up a large population of susceptible elderly people. I wont mention the witholding of early treatment and prophylactic protocols that have been demonstrated as effective in many countries.
KidUKnott You’d do well to review DarkHorse and Heather Heyling’s piece on the practices in academia affecting scientific research routes. I’m afraid scientific research isn’t free of bias given the private money directing the focus thereby starving other research of merit that would challenge the narrative being funded.
Where does this 1% CFR come from? Is it cases dying from AND with C ? Cause that´s the way most countries are counting c-deaths. In the end it´s more about lost life years, isn´t it?
There we have it the "CFR" as opposed to the actual probable "IFR" because of all the either very mild or Asymptomatic infections which haven't been detected plus all those in countries/regions where testing capacity has been limited, you'd have thought Tim would have at least made the differential comparison between those 2 metrics.
Will be interesting to see how omicron shifts covid's position in this graph. My expectation, based on what we've seen so far in SA, is a dramiatic shift downwards and to the right. I really hope this is the case
It's usually the case that when Coronavirus's increase in infectiousness on average they lose some of there punch to become less lethal per infection although more people becoming infected in itself could prove to still be something of an issue, the only question remains is will healthcare capacity be able to cope with it? 🤷♂️
The graph y axis was 'stretched' from 0 to 10% which exacerbates difference between cold, flu and Covid which may not be obvious to everyone. Also, is that a poster of a line drawing of recumbent female nude? Cummon.
We had also hoped previous variants such as alpha would be more contagiois but less virulent as traditionally we've always assumed it is to the benefit of the virus to not kill too quickly but so far COVID has repeatedly proven this commonly accepted premise to be wrong, at least for the COVID variants so far. Our age old premise that viruses will evolve to become more contagious but less dangerous has always been just an assumption or rather presumption and assumes that respiratory viruses spread by the symptoms such as coughing and sneezing while well over half the spread of COVID has been asymptomatic so the severity of the disease does not impair it's spread. Certainly we hope that Omicron will be less dangerous though more contagious as we had assumed viruses would become for several decades if not a generation but once burned twice shy and this as the seventh variant of concern this is really six times burnt so how shy should you be. As to the flu, the flu is less dangeeous but still causes deaths and we've alwats had the flu as well as we're not motivated to just get rid of it though the COVID measures taken during the 2020/2021 flu season showed, we could quite effectively be rid of the flu with a few years of measures. The flu will still kill more overall because it is less dangerous and we simply won't address it. Though this may also become true of COVID as we may simply not be able to motivate enough people for long enough to deal with it.
It won't and not because its less deadly. Our measurements of 28 days of infection and the fact you can be pcr positive for four months after infection is ridiculous. We really have no way of measuring what this is like and we probably never will. Don't give a flying "F" about the fear because the science in stats tells me this is still a condition in the largely over 80 population.
The real question is: what are the median PCR cycle thresholds across all Covid19 variants and across other respiratory viruses, like the flu? This info should be widely available. I have yet to come across it. If anyone has please post links. Thank you.
Short answer is - it depends. Not all PCR tests use the same cycle values and the cycle value is linked to sensitivity. So it depends how sensitive you want your test to be and how many false positives you are prepared to accept. And the answer to that probably depends on the purpose of the test - are you trying to confirm whether a symptomatic patient has Covid or are you trying to detect Covid in people before they become infectious to others?
My father in law started with just a cold but ended up with phenomena like many others in critical care with secondary infection .He always had the flu jab every year and suffered badly every winter and didn't mix much at all .
Tim - the first graph you shared - this is helpful but a massive over simplification. It's not just about how deadly something is, but to whom. NICE considers spending on medical interventions to be considered against quality life years saved; if COVID impacts the elderly, and the flu impacts the young, then deadliness is not the right metric to use, because young people lose many more years of life than the elderly. Please can you address this.
This graph covers overall! You would create a view with further detail to answer the question of age and other factors.. then also longer impact if not fatal…
See my comment about the statistics when age is taken into account: unless a government stooge or snowflake has had it removed, in which case I'll reenter it.
I believe the point of the video was to do just that, to literally simplify the situation, for "as stated" if you are trying to point out to someone with no medical/research knowledge, the difference between a Cold/Flu and SARS COV -2 ... It needs to be just the bottom line, to get the message out there to the masses... Those who wish a more in-depth explanation will do a literature search for themselves. The general public need the bottom line ... This is NOT just a cold/flu... I think Tim did an excellent job and has clearly demonstrates this in an widely accessible manner.
The ‘information’ on this chart is totally spurious … We don’t run thousands of PCR tests for colds and flu on a daily basis … and we don’t certificate everybody who dies with a cold as a ‘cold death’.
Those figures on the flu seem a little low.. did you not mean 12,000 deaths not 1200? I was under the understanding death tolls from the flu were around 10-17,000 per year.
I'm a retired Biologist, pro-vaccination where it's appropriate (eg for me) & am wondering if this is based on people that died from the disease or a direct impact of the disease or is it based on people that died while testing positive for the disease. Is it possible to tell without an autopsy?
I'm not a scientist but would love to see the answers to your questions from someone knowledgeable. It is rarely discussed anywhere. My understanding is that autopsies were stopped, and doctors were instructed to ensure "covid" was put on death certificates whether positive by PCR test or even suspected! It has also been reported that Covid was to be recorded as the main cause of death even if a person died from old age, accident or non-covid primary illnesses. In Italy, an investigation into covid deaths last year found that (from memory) some 10-12% of people actually died due to covid (this report should be available on the internet). So the majority in Italy died from other primary causes and possibly WITH covid, although to be fair covid could have been a factor to some degree. If this were applied to the UK figure approx 18,000 would have died primarily due to covid from the start of the pandemic. That is pure conjecture but it's thought provoking none-the-less. I suspect we will never know.
@@AndrewKNI is it not enough assessing that a way larger number of people died during the pandemic related to respiratory/pulmonary disease? it doesn't take a Phd right?
If, after all this time, I had the opportunity to try to change the views of a covid sceptic, I really doubt that there is anything I could say which would be likely to alter their their views. If they have so far remained impervious to the facts, they will probably remain so.
Like some others on here who say “great video” you’ve simply lapped it up unquestioningly. On the other hand, most vax/narrative sceptics (not COVID sceptics as they are a vanishingly small group) would know that the the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate is 0.2-0.3%, not 1% which is a particular, presumably recent, case fatality rate (remember when WHO, CDC and ‘fact checkers’ were telling us the ‘fatality rate’ was 4% in March 2020? Same trick). Carefully researched papers by world-renowned epidemiologists show the infection fatality rate to be most likely 0.23-0.25%, e.g. papers by John Ionnides. He also found that the IFR for under 70s is 0.05% because that 0.23-0.25% is skewed so heavily towards the over 70s. 0.05% IFR for under 70s is less than for the flu for that age cohort. So for everyone under 70, they should be able to continue their lives as they did before COVID. The gigantic cost of lockdown for that massive majority could have been averted and about 5% of it spent on a belt and braces protection of the over 70’s. Yes, I’m one of those you are trying to persuade but you’ve just proven how woefully bereft of knowledge you are by praising this video unquestioningly. We do our research on legitimate government websites and institutional websites like the WHO (which quote a 0.2% IFR) and numerous peer reviewed papers. We’re simply light years ahead of you on this and every other aspect of the official narrative. Do better.
@@ardznails interesting you should cite Professor Ioannidis. If you search For his work ‘peer reviewed’ it seems much of his published work is criticised by his peers, both in methodology and findings, whether it’s about Covid or something else. We can all search the Internet for “facts” but will get different results based upon our own search history. Your assumption here that people who view Prof. Spector’s information as helpful, are ignorant of the matter, is also flawed thinking, based on your logarithmically controlled research. That is all I have to say on the matter.
Consider the questionable data on deaths as well please. A close friend works in ITU and earlier this year a RTA victim was classed as dying covid because he tested positive but asymptomatic at time of accident. . She says it’s madness how the deaths are reported still.
Even though he's wrong! 🤔 He completely missed the point about people comparing Covid to Flu, when people talk about seasonal Flu they aren't taking into account what vaccines and other medicines have achieved at suppressing INFLUENZA from becoming a significant "Pandemic" as opposed to an "endemic" equilibrium. If you want to know what would happen if an Influenza mutation totally bypassed the vaccines and/or modern therapeutics just go through historical data of every significant Flu pandemic there has ever been (not including the 2009 Swine Flu so-called "Pandemic" which never truly was) the results make for pretty grim reading especially when considering not just the amount of people who died but also the average number of life years lost. I'm absolutely speechless that such a supposedly well respected Epidemiologist like Tim Spector was so short sighted on this occasion when drawing such unfair comparisons!
@@adamknight7041 not sure what point you’re making here. If you have some credentials then you might like to explain what they are, but if not, whatever point you are making here doesn’t really matter.
It is without doubt the problem with Covid has been overstated and the figures massaged regarding the impact of Covid. It’s still only a very small percentage of the Global population that have succumbed and the age profile is conveniently downplayed. Most importantly two years on and still no increase in the size of our NHS , hospital numbers or staff numbers. Still a huge mystery.
@@liz9147 it does matter though doesn't it? Comparing a virus which is currently endemic to one that is currently in its pandemic era isn't a proportional comparison and very misleading.
When you consider how many people have died within 28 days of having an ingrowing toe nail, we should all be a lot more concerned about keeping those toe nails trimmed. And don't get me started on the number of people dying within 28 days of a Chicken Burrito....
There is a SERIOUS misrepresentation of information in this comparison here... VERY dishonest from Spectre... For example.. he's comparing Spanish Flu deadliness on the same as COVID... Average age of death on COVID 80 years old... Average age of death... Spanish Flu? Healthy middle aged people... That's why it was such a problem.. Phil.. you're part of the problem
Very interesting and understandable graph which confirms Covid a pandemic on it's logarithmic Ro number. But how do Zoe verify R numbers and where can I gather trust and confidence in Ro's which are spread from Downing Street?
4:44 (and earlier) That's a very interesting graph. I do have a question, though. How do Spanish 'flu and COVID-19 compare if the outbreaks were to occur in populations with the same medical technology, that is, if COVID-19 had broken out in 1918 when industrial scale oxygen, steroidal anti-inflammatories and anti-biotics for secondary infections weren't available or, alternatively, if Spanish 'flu had broken out in 2019 and all of those things were available. My guess (and I freely admit it's just that) is that the death rate for COVID-19 if we had 1918 technology is that virtually anyone whom we now put into intensive care would be dead. So that would push the death rate up to about 10%.
How do you come up with a IFR for Covid-19 of 1%? The data of Ioannidis (Stanford University) Bulletin WHO (09/2020) showed 0,23% IFR and included over 60 studies worldwide. Even more important to say, for people
Since the outbreak of delta, the cafe fatality rate is actually sitting nearer 0.4%. when you take into account almost all people who die with covid are recorded as deaths caused by covid, and conversely flu deaths are under reported, it's easy to see how they could indeed be as deadly.
Did that mini lecture frighten you? I'm sure it was meant to. What is best to do, is it live your life and be happy and take care regarding your health and if you're poorly avoid people until you've recovered and get on with life , or be frightened to death by pseudo experts and go and live out your life up in the attic wrapped in cotton wool!!! Is that living in happiness? Or living in fear. ?
Thank you Prof. Tim, I'm far less anxious after listening to your weekly podcast. My son, double jabbed has caught Covid and has been really unwell, he is diabetic and has AF, this Covid is very nasty 😒 thank you for your invaluable support with research and informative discussions👏
Hi - thank you I have several friends who use "its just like flu" to justify ignoring sensible precautions. Please can you give a link for downloading the graph of severity vs infectiousness to help spread the rational message.
Is there anywhere we can see "static" copies of your excellent graphs? I was particularly struck by the comparison between measles and Covid. The former is similarly deadly and much more transmissible. And yet, and yet... when I was a child, it was "just another" childhood disease. I guess the only reason we need so much, so very much, more intervention to prevent the spread of Covid is because we seem to be able to catch it again and again: much less conferred immunity. Is that right?
SARS-CoV-2 has a 1% fatality rate? Where is this coming from? Prof Ioannidis estimated around 0.26% in early 2020. "As of 15 July, Public Health England’s modelling group, with the MRC Biostats Unit, estimated that overall infection mortality rate is approximately 0.096%" - answer to question tabled by MP Steve Baker on 12th July 2021
Husband got covid from work, kept testing LFD and pcr negative for 4,5, days after contact, but started testing positive both on LFD, then pcr also positive, symptoms started a couple of days later, it's got worse and worse, but everyday seems to get different symptoms, got blocked nose, sore throat, cough, headache, feverish, uncontrollable shakes, sweating, hard to sleep, feeling sick, stomach pain, muscle pain, lost tests, all sorts of symptoms. He had AZ both doses in April. Nearly everyone at work got it. Strangely since he's been self isotaing, me and our 3 kids, close contacts, kept testing negative. It's just strange, we all have cold and flu symptoms, but it's been weeks and weeks, kept getting it from school.
@@wynbrown7321 Vaccines for Covid help us have reduced symptoms and are less likely to pass it on. In this case the don't stop you getting Covid. Being Less transmissible helps end pandemics sooner. Take for example other viruses we vaccinated out.
Is that graph wrongly marked? Why woul it go in an increment of .1, then 1% then 10%? That would be a relationship of ten times for that increment only. It should read .5% it would not change on the same graph.
A very interesting chart but stretching the scale of the y axis below 1 per cent is misleading, especially when it is not footnoted to explain this to readers who are not used to interpreting charts. I see why it has been done, because otherwise a whole lot of data points would bunch together, and the chart would be hard to read, but this needs to be fully explained.
The graph is misleading at best. Age and comorbidity are a huge factor. Also, mumps being in the same category as common cold is, well, there is no other way to say, but stupid.
I have to disagree Tim. I haven't caught a cold in maybe 30 years. But the years that I did the first thing I lost was my taste and smell. I was ill with covid from March 2020 and it took a year for me to recover. I never had a temperature or a cough at all. The symptoms i had, some were never mentioned. So the symptoms mentioned, mainly if not all apply to all 3 illnesses. I think i've caught the flu maybe 4 or 5 times in my 66 years. Each bout had a gap of maybe on average 15 years. I also never knew it was the flu until about the 5th or 6th day, again i used to lose my smell and taste.
I think the loss of taste and smell is different in COVID in that it attacks the cells rather than blocking them. I've seen people mention that they were surprised they couldn't smell bleach, then they felt ill.
If you haven't had smell/taste loss from COVID, it's very different to cold/flu smell/taste impairment. You literally lose ALL ability to smell or taste.
I haven’t had Covid, as far as I know & have only had flu once about 45 years ago. Used to get 3-4 colds a year & I think most people experience some loss of taste & smell temporarily. No colds for nearly 5 years but the last time I had one my taste & smell went completely for over 3 weeks to the point I wondered if it was ever coming back. Thankfully it did. It was quite unpleasant & I really feel for people who’ve lost these senses for weeks & months due to Covid.
Note the y axis!! 0-10% on deadliness scale is extended compared to the other 10% segments on the y axis. Obviously done to enable detail but nontheless misleading!
We are disappointed - the ZOE team may have unintentionally made mistakes, or you are revelling in the fear. As some smart cookies have already pointed out, your scale is off, which makes it look worse than it is. You should not switch up the increments (0%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%) to fit your graph. #DopeSick Now... Deadliness... what does that represent - case fatality rate or infection fatality rate? Well done to those who spotted that inconsistency too. The Flu has an average IFR between 0.1%-0.2%. However, in recent years the CFR has been 13.5%, and nobody batted an eyelid! COVID has a CFR of around 1% globally. But, as published on the World Health Organisations website, the global IFR is estimated at 0.2% The estimated case-fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 1.6% - 20%, depending on the interpretation of the data. The WHO has settled on 2% - 3% - 20-50 million deaths and assumes over 50% came into contact with the virus. For those asking about SARS and MERS - SARS is said to kill 1 in 10, with over 65's at greater risk. A CFR of 11% by the end of the outbreak. While MERS had a case-fatality rate of 37%. How about the infectiousness? The R0 is an estimate that doesn't hold up to reality. We started off with a potential rate of 3.4. Then as more transmissible variants came along, the potential infectiousness increased. 4-5 then 6-8, now, who knows. But in reality, the R0 is measured between 1 and 3. Some would say restrictions made a difference, while others suggest human behaviour naturally changes when we are sick. Plus, being in contact with covid doesn't mean that you will contract the disease. So, is COVID the same as the flu? No, they are clearly different diseases. COVID is a greater risk to the frail, sick, and unhealthy. No matter what you do, support your immune system because you will be in contact with SARS-CoV-2 and over 200 cold and flu viruses.
0.1 to 0.2 was the estimated CFR for the flu, if I'm not mistaken. Now, there is obviously a pretty high number of unreported cases. So the IFR of the flu should be clearly below 0.1 to my understanding. The graph was designed to separate the deadliness and just give a nice view. I think it was a good choice. But I can understand if someone does not like it.
Is it true the pcr tests use to check three markers, if positive on all you were deemed positive for covid. Is it now true you only have to test positive on two markers to get a positive result hence the surge in cases.
Is the rabies R0 value right? (Perhaps for non human animals?) Seems about an order of magnitude more than I can find elsewhere, with WHO saying human-human spread is very rare.
VT’s death rate with COVID is now 0.8% down from 0.9% as our case numbers climb. Earlier comment about death rate being highest in those over 70 years is so far correct. Does that make it less troublesome to society?
We also vaccinate people against flu which we’ve only been doing against covid for less than one year- so I think comparing mortality with flu and covid deaths is unfair
I thought you weren’t supposed to get jabbed for at least 12 weeks after catching the disease. (Though why anyone would get a vaccine … After they’ve had the disease … !!! … is beyond me).
It obviously is in terms of death however, it only seems to unfortunately take many people who had made poor lifestyle choices 'co-morbid' so is in a way a virus that has shown us how unhealthy the population is or how unhealthy we have been made by the 'offered' diets and lifestyle offerings!
I’m sure the families of all the young people who have died from Covid, who had no co morbidities will take great comfort from your view 🤦🏻♂️ What a shame all the elderly people made a poor lifestyle choice to live that long, or the pregnant women who are dying of Covid made the poor lifestyle choice to get pregnant 🙄
@@AndyC2_ which isn't very many at all, approximately only 1% of all "Covid-related" mortality has occurred in those under the age of 50 or in other words roughly 1,400 in the UK including those with co-morbidities, under 40 only just over 100 have died "from" Covid who had no known pre-existing conditions.
@@AndyC2_ That is why if you read and understand what I write I stipulate 'unfortunately take many people' and unfortunately 'truth' gives no comfort as I am not writing about any form of comfort here it is science and research. If you research you will find the average age of death in females 'DUE' to COVID 82.5 years (median age 85 COVID involved) and again, IF you research any pregnancy death it will be a PCR positive with complications present during pregnancy also pregnancy has a strong weakening effect on a person (that's why we had so many child mortalities in the past and dragged the average age of death down to 45 years old not so many decades ago) and hence many become immunosuppressed (especially if they are not on a good diet and take outside exercise). This will then guide people to conclude scientifically (not emotionally as Science and Medical Science is not emotive). Poor lifestyle choices (ex: too many sugars/fructose) are epigenetic in nature and 99.7% of people who have died from/with COVID-19 symptoms will be weakened (co-morbid) 'metabolic illness' the others if we research will unfortunately have some probably 'unknown' immunodeficiency. This virus is no different to many others, it will unfortunately take the susceptible. The 'Truth' is it is our responsibility to take care of our own health and SARS-CoV2 has highlighted this clearly by the current data, I personally have had a daughter who miscarried during the pandemic she was on medication, no medication is actually good for anyone it is a simple choice to create a better outcome based on risk. I wish you well
@@AndyC2_ That is why if you read and understand what I write I stipulate 'unfortunately take many people' and unfortunately 'truth' gives no comfort as I am not writing about any form of comfort here it is science and research. If you research you will find the average age of death in females 'DUE' to COVID 82.5 years (median age 85 COVID involved) and again, IF you research any pregnancy death it will be a PCR positive with complications present during pregnancy also pregnancy has a strong weakening effect on a person (that's why we had so many child mortalities in the past and dragged the average age of death down to 45 years old not so many decades ago) and hence many become immunosuppressed (especially if they are not on a good diet and take outside exercise). This will then guide people to conclude scientifically (not emotionally as Science and Medical Science is not emotive). Poor lifestyle choices (ex: too many sugars/fructose) are epigenetic in nature and 99.7% of people who have died from/with COVID-19 symptoms will be weakened (co-morbid) 'metabolic illness' the others if we research will unfortunately have some probably 'unknown' immunodeficiency. This virus is no different to many others, it will unfortunately take the susceptible. The 'Truth' is it is our responsibility to take care of our own health and SARS-CoV2 has highlighted this clearly by the current data, I personally have had a daughter who miscarried during the pandemic she was on medication, no medication is actually good for anyone it is a simple choice to create a better outcome based on risk. MEANING: We weaken as we get older by lifestyle choice however, we can enhance our immunity and live with fit and healthy immune systems into old age the statement 'oh well I am old I get weaker as I get older is a simple fallacious cop out' yes we weaken naturally and slow down however, at this rate we will be effecting our average life expectancy very soon. I wish you well
Polio was vaccinated out of existence? Citation needed. Polio seems to have come back in places with the reintroduction of DDT use in Africa to control mosquitos.
Citation for the sources for the graph would be great! Back of the envelope calculations puts the Spanish Flu at about 50x deadlier than COVID, killing 50m on a planet with only 1.8b in 1919... vs COVID killing 5.31m out of a population of 7.7b
My understanding is that the level of deadliness and infectiousness of a virus is a dynamic value and not a static value, i.e. generally overtime the value is decreasing on both axes. Why are you presenting these values as being a static value???
And now how many people have died from covid measures...
A lot less than 170,000.
... omicron is just a cold here in Pretoria ... we are lucky ,,, we will pray for you living with delta ..
According to UNICEF an additional 7,000,000 children are now suffering acute malnutrition … 168,000,000 children have missed an entire year of school … An additional 140,000,000 children are now living below the poverty line … All directly attributed to covid measures. (UNICEF data).
The graph is a little deceptive: the "Deadliness" axis starts logarithmic up to 10%, and then is linear. It is common to signify this by a break in the axis if there's a scale change.
Deceptive graphs is a Zoe core skill.
Yes I thought that was a bit strange too!
only deceptive if you can't read? Seems reasonable. Gap be nice but overall not an issue if you're older than the age of 10 i'd imagine.
@@danieldevine I doubt many ten year olds understand logarithms! And, of course there's the error on the scale. I'm sure you spotted it.
99.998
Good explanation.
Do you have sources for the graph? It's good to be able to share that.
I think that there is an important information that is missing here. The deadliness of the Covid virus is especially high for the over 70s, relatively moderate for 50s-70s. Yes, I know that there are younger people that die of Covid, but it is very very rare, while flu deaths distribution is different. Also polio and measles deaths are very high among children.
For those infected but have recovered, I think lingering symptoms - "long covid" - are a differentiator too. And that is spread over several age ranges.
@@lgrinaker If we discuss the entire disease not just the deaths, yes it would be relevant. But considering the long term effects of Polio and Measles survivors, Covid long term would go to the bottom.
@@allydea How can you be so sure when we don't even know how long "long covid" lasts?
That's a fair point. I also wonder how we can confidently compare Flu to Covid 19, when to the best of my understanding we have never analysed flu anything remotely like Covid. Along with questionable tests, and death numbers attributed to it.
@@shepchester3567 We know (for example) a bad flu year would cause around 650,000 global deaths. Covid, even with restrictions and social distancing is more than double.
1% infection fatality? that doesn't add up, it may be about right for those who develop a degree of disease but once we take into account asymptomatic or very mild disease I'm not convinced.
I believe 'only' about 10m people have had Covid so far in the UK, so the stats seem about right.
@@dannymurphy1779 nonsense, the number of infections is always at least 90% higher then the number of those confirmed by testing.
@@dannymurphy1779 nonsense, the number of infections is always at least 90% higher then the number of those confirmed by testing.
Next time make sure to rate flu/unvaccinated vs. flu vaccinated vs covid unvaccinated and covid vaccinated. This would be important for vaccinated hesitant. Or is the reason we don't have that information on a chart because there is little difference ?
Regarding the flu vaccine, if you have the jab and then get the flu anyway then you’re told it’s a different strain and that the jab only covers one predicted strain none of the others implying that there is 100% protection against the one strain they decided was going to be the most prevalent. 🤷🏽♀️
@@travelwell6049
I think you’ll find that the annual.’flu jab is based on the four previous worst strains. It’s not a one shot fixes all, but at the end of the day no vaccine is 💯 % effective. What works for some doesn’t work for all. That said I’ve had ‘flu jabs for almost a decade and touch wood 🪵, I haven’t caught it once.
@Will R Thomson 😆 yup, and I don't f***in want one, two or ,three
Dr Moran has done a video containing a prepress study on transmission loads and duration of infectiousness which found levels were equal in vaccinated and unvaccinated inmates.
@@brynleytalbot778 TRUE
Tim - The death rate was shown at 1% right at the beginning yet now the variants are less deadly plus our treatments are also better so how come you still show it at 1%?
It is called averaging the data is sound, but I agree error bars would have been useful.
@Can do Life and it keeps his covid app semi-relevant...
Exactly Tim, also Dr. John Ioannidis from Stanford has a much lower infection fatality rate. Which is much less than 1% and has not radically changed since the data from the Petri dish ship that was the ‘Diamond Princess’.
Have co morbidities been taken into consideration with all these illnesses?
If you are on deaths door, a cold will kill you. If you catch rabies, it would just come quicker
Rabies pays no attention to comorbidities. Kills 50k a year. If you get symptoms frim it you're dead.
yea, rabies is like 99,99+% deadly
@@baraitalo If you travel far from hospitals then you get vaccinated which gives you longer to get treatment and a fair chance to survive.
99.998
There's something odd about Tim's chart and where Rabies is on it. Tim has it as very infectious and very deadly - much more so than Covid yet there's no panic about it?
1% infection fatality rate. So with around 60k confirmed infections/day in the UK, we should expect >600 deaths/day - something wrong here.
I think this data is for pre-vaccination. We were seeing that sort of proportion a year ago but of course that has changed drastically now most people are vaccinated.
@@jareth0205 So with the vax giving >90% protection against death, that brings the fatality rate down to 0.1%, rather like flu - or am I missing something?
Divide 600 by the % unvaccinated
It's known that _at least_ 50% of the UK population have contracted Covid. So that's _at least_ 35 million people. If deaths are 1% then we would be seeing 350,000 deaths due to Covid. Where did you get this 1% figure?
The graph gives IFR = 1%, but that is with a completely naive population. Taking figures from our world in data the 7 - day rolling average for daily cases is 46k and deaths 120, so the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 0.26% with the the protection from vaccines and mitigation measures.
The number of infections is underestimated when compare with the number of cases by a factor of 2 - 3, the IFR = 0.1%, with about 120,000 infections per day.
Perhaps another big difference is your funding source. Let's show that graph!!!! 5x and 10x could also be stated .5% or 1% different. Keep the fear alive TIM, keep your funding alive Tim. Oh, you forgot to include age and comorbidities in this 10X statement!!! Is that Untreated COVID? What happened to "GET HEALTHY" as the first line of defense!!!. BTW I have had covid, been vaxed and I am proactively healthy.
I'm on Day 7 since testing positive. Started with scratchy throat and blocked nose. Didn't change much until the weekend when I lost my sense of taste and smell. (Autocorrect tried to say humour, which is also fairly accurate 🤣). Today (Day 7) I'm starting to feel feverish. Thought by now I'd be over the worst of this. Double vaccinated (AZ) and probable Covid in Jan 2019 so am hoping there's still some memory cells floating around. Lesson is: if you think it's "just a cold" get tested as other symptoms may not appear for several days. I only took the PCR because I was a contact of a positive case.
Surely getting double vaccinated should have prevented you from getting the virus.
@@wynbrown7321 They’ve never said it stops you from getting the virus…it just helps prevent serious illness
@@hayleyward9332 Seriously you gotta have algorithm bots giving thumbs up for that comment because it's completely untrue. Yes the literally said for almost a year that getting these stopped you catching it or did you live on another planet?
@@wynbrown7321 do you not listen to the thousands of news reports and this channel that explicitly explain that vaccinations help reduce risk of contracting but don’t eliminate possibility altogether what they have been good at as you can see from daily death figures and high infection rate compared to last year is reducing deaths
@@wynbrown7321 In the same way wearing a seatbelt 100% prevents you being injured in a car crash?
This is about hazard mitigation - not necessarily elimination. It's a much better idea to wear a seatbelt because it dramatically lowers your chances of hospitalization and death. Better vaccines will come out - the nasal spray vaccines will probably be very effective at preventing infection. Do you think the vaccine being 100% effective would change vaccine hesitant people's minds? The science is being honest about their efficacy, which is being used as a negative.
The best vaccine in history could come out tomorrow - and it would change NOTHING. As it stands, the vaccines are awesome at mitigating the most serious aspects of the disease, unfortunately they aren't great(but still quite good) at long term permanent protection from infection.
What if you counted cold deaths if you died within 28 days of having one?
@Tom That's not the point as some people will die 28 days after catching a cold even if it was not the cold that killed them so the stats would be skewed just as the current stats are !!
@@sichere exactly
Tom - your missing the point!
Die from (quote) "ANY REASON.... within 28 days of a positive test"
Remember that catch phrase from the Covid death count?
Usually followed by:
(Quote) "With one or more serious underlying health conditions".... (I.e. More than one actual CAUSE)
And / Or
(Quote) "Where Covid....was MENTIONED on the death certificate."
Remember those legal caveats on the BBC?
So back to the OP's original question..... what if we did EXACTLY the same for a Cold?
It is exactly the same logic as is being inverted to say there are almost no deaths from vaccination.
It’s a good point. It could make a cold seem far more deadly
I have not heard very much talk about health during this "health crisis". If the Western world wasn't so greedy and fat then there would have been much fewer deaths and we wouldn't be even thinking about vaccinating younger people. I'm tired of reading headlines about "20-something year old with no co morbidities on a ventilator" only to discover that they are 22 stone. What did the Government do? Close the parks and open McDonalds! it's YOUR body and YOUR responsibility.
Never a truer word said!
... omicron is just a cold here in Pretoria ... we are lucky ,,, we will pray for you living with delta ..
Thank you Tim for pointing this out and for all your hard work.
This 7 min video, has been more informative than ANY I have watched recently. Thanks for sharing.
I can go back decades and remember losing my sense of smell with a heavy cold or flu like symptoms, this is nothing new..
Hi Tim et al. What were your sources for the graph's data? I'll be asked this if I go on to share it.
COVID is nowhere near 10 times as deadly, based on various numbers it is 2 or three times as deadly if that, check the WHO and CDC estimates which put it between 0.1 and 0.5%. In the u.s. the numbers indicate about 0.3% using the estimates of actual infections rather than confirmed cases. There maybe other reasons to worry about covid but it is not the fatality rate. And the fatality rate with each variant appears to be reducing.
It depends if Zoe is using Case Fatality Rate or Infection Fatality Rates, as I have seen statisticians, politicians and media swap between them as if they are the same in order to create more fear. You may also note my comments above that the Covid stat is unvaccinated whereas the flu stat includes vaccinated, so it is not a true comparison.
Your other data is just that and in no way invalidates Zoe data. You are comparing apples with pears.
@@adestegreenhalgh1180 how? COVID is not 10 x more deadly, there are no apples and pears, it is simply not true.
@@justinoz06 Your data please!
@@adestegreenhalgh1180 hi Ade, I posted a reply to your request with links and it was deleted even though the links are cdc and who. The way the algorithms work for UA-cam are bizarre. I will post again today in separate posts.
I wonder who funds ZOE? Hmmmmm......
Dr. Tim: Has the prescription of Medazolam, sometimes accompanied with Morphine, in nursing homes in the U.K. had any effect on the death rate from this virus? Could it have raised the 'deadliness' rating of this virus?
Simple answer : yes. Midazolam *IS* the 'first wave'.
Apparently the government allegedly got the drug Medazolam from France, also I read it's one of the 3 drugs given to prisoners on death row in America. How bizarre and sinister
I read morphine can . They did this in Sweden in first wave in carehomes mortality rate very high.
Without using drugs to suppress respiratory rate then you have other complications that arise from someone who is is respiratory distress
I may be wrong, but surely modern treatments medicine etc, make the comparison between Spanish flu and covid flawed ? If all covid patients were not treated then the death rate must increase a lot?
We didn't have that excuse in the Flu pandemics of 1957 and '68 which both still killed more then Covid in a shorter timeframe and had a median death age of under 40 as opposed to Covid which has a median death age well over 80.
Yes the data enables you to create such information. The data is what the data is.
There is another super important factor to compare, how much life-time, on average, does the illness take away. Spanish flew is estimated to have been 45 years. Covid, I'd bet, is closer to 1 year. In Canada, the average age of covid death is higher than the average life expectancy.
A far more useful statistic would be the expected years lost for each disease by age band. This would also show why polio and measles are such disasters as they affect the young disproportionately.
I usually respect what Tim has to say but he's talking nonsense here, we're in a Coronavirus "PANDEMIC" so yes of course more people will die then an endemic virus like the predominantly winter based Flu but what he failed to take into account is that we have advanced vaccines and better therapeutics to treat and manage Flu viruses every year to help keep the death rates down, if we took those pharmaceutical measures away the death tolls would be colossal and it wouldn't necessarily be a predominantly elderly demographic succumbing to it either.
Now that we have supposedly efficacious vaccinations and oral drugs to suppress Covid's impacts healthcare systems should be able to manage it much better and refocus their attention on the huge backlog of other health conditions, anymore Government restrictions on society and people's livelihoods will be devastating for both people's mental wellbeing aswell as the economy and nobody's health benefited from becoming poorer.
If life expectancy at birth is 75, that doesn't mean life expectancy at age 76 is zero!
@@adamknight7041 3000 people died of flu in 2 years, 3819 died of covid in the last 28 days. Yes, we do have ways to mitigate its effects. Yes, it's still not the flu.
@@shaunpatrick8345 I dont think those figures are correct, I believe he may have meant 12,000 not 12 hundred.
I find the graph very surprising. I always thought that the common cold was highly infectious, whereas HIV was not that infectious (0.1% per sex act, more or less). The graph shows the common cold not that infectious at all, and HIV very infectious. Is that graph really that accurate?
I agree, I must be misunderstanding the term "infectiousness" as I understood HIV and Rabies are not usualy transmitted via aerosols (its possible but according to CDC would only really occur in labworkers).
20% of people in South Africa are HIV positive, with probably a 2x unidentified ratio. If people ignore HIV in their sex life then yes, then it is this contagious.
R0 is the number of people an infected person infects - in its entire life it remains ill …
btw, b/c there are so many HIV hosts in SA, it is actually plausible that the Omicron variant may have come from such a host.
@@owlangel7234 R0 for rabies does apply to wild animals probably. Humans are domesticated ;)
It is very infectious but evidently not as infectious as covid19 and chicken pox. Oddly I don’t believe I’ve had symptoms of chicken pox. My son had it at 21 when he went to uni and was very green for 10 days.
All the advice that reduces spread of colds and flu also work with covid19
Primary problem with Christmas parties is that once we have a few drinks we naturally get closer to people and forget to distance etc best solution is to all do lateral flow tests which free from chemists and your local library 😊 Happy Christmas
this is why nobody should never assume shit
The problem with Covid is not so much the 1% death rate but the possability of everybody getting it at once. If 30m people got it in the UK this winter then you can see that things could get very difficult. It really is just a numbers game...
Which is a very good reason to improve our early and hospital treatment regimes.
What would life be like if we spent the money that went on track and trace on state of the art hospitals and nurses and training . Bet your life it would save more lives than some phone call telling you to stay home for 10 days
According to seroprevelace studies by the WHO on the average amount of antibodies within the global population the actual estimated median IFR for Covid is only around 0.2% not "1%" which is actually nearer the CFR. Approximately 90% of all infections for a virus of this type will go undiagnosed, so in reality approximately 5 million global deaths as a result of 3 to 4 billion infections as opposed to the much lower confirmed "case's" , when you put it like that it sounds alot less scary.
deadliness of 1% is pre-vaccine though, flu deadliness is post vaccination for many years, i would suspect the 1% for SARS-cov-2 will drop dramatically as immuno-familiarity increases
I thought the 1% figure was a bit odd as well. I thought we started off at around 1% but since then we've had vaccines and all these new treatments and better management of the illness, all of which reduce the death rate. I suspect that figure must be a little out of date - it would be good to know the current percentage
It’s actually more like 0.2-0.5% pre-vaccine in reality
@@zillie8167 the axis is fine a relative value of R is not as good as an absolute value
Correction the current fatality rate of the Delta strain is 0.3% even less in most countries with low and very low vaccination rates.
Can you show us some facts to back that up?
... omicron is just a cold here in Pretoria ... we are lucky ,,, we will pray for you living with delta ..
@@jasonandlynnechambers3420 read the data supplied by the World Health Organisation and CDC who have downgraded the IFR of this virus several times since the start of the pandemic.
It would be interesting to see that same graph in the Spring if the new OmiCON variant takes off in the way everyone's saying, wipes out all other variants, and continues to fail to kill a single person....
If we PCR tested the same number of people for a Cold, as we test for Covid, the numbers of people dying with a Cold would be astronomical.
Exactly
Sars-Cov-2 ist a lot more infectious. So I don't think so. But it would be interesting for sure!
Loss of sense of taste and smell makes it difficult when you have that health issue anyway
Indeed! My old mum sneezes for England and has no sense of smell as standard.
Very interesting. It's good to see the comparison with other viruses to put it all in context. Thankyou
It would be interesting to see 1,2 and boosted vaccinations plotted on the graph alongside flue and other diseases as well as age profiles - extra work but useful in assessing personal risk profiles.
Younger and fitter is a better defence for all virus's, i'm old and knackered so i'm out of luck.
@@anthonynicholas1165 that's where you get the biggest return for your Bucks !
Are these figures based on data of people that have died with 28 days of testing +, I would really like to know how many people have died from covid alone, without poor immune systems, obesity problems or any other life threatening illnesses, It may encourage people to reevaluate their lifestyles,diet etc, rather than relying on experimental vaccines which I worry will leave us in a similar situation we are in with antibiotics,
Hear hear
Amen 🙌🙌🙌
Thank-you especially for the graph, which really clarifies the comparison
Glad it was helpful!
The graph is deliberately misleading … the scale changes from log to linear at 10%.
And the data points are spurious …
If you catch Covid .… and it turns to pneumonia and your kidneys fail. The death cert’ says Covid.
If you catch a cold …. and it turns to pneumonia and your kidneys fail. The death cert’ says pneumonia/kidney failure.
They are very clever people at Zoe … They know exactly what they are doing … I don’t know how they sleep at night.
@@Hickalum This was the issue I was highlighting.
The count of 3000 deaths over 2 years was not including the 55,000 that died from influenza and Pnuemonia.
However when counting Covid deaths it was all deaths where Covid is mentioned on the Death Cert.
There is obviously a big difference between Covid and influenza I dont dispute that, its far worse, but the numbers werent compared fairly.
@@Hickalum You clearly understand it so it is not misleading to you or me.
My first symptoms were mild headache and aching all over. Also sickness. Dihria. Then that stopped. Eventually lost taste. Still haven't got it back. On day 8. No other symptoms just the no taste.
But surely the relevant age group for each virus should be taken into consideration????
Not if the point of the video, was to clearly demonstrate the differences between a cold/flu and SARA COV -2 ... Which it was .
@@Sunnysue31 it has probably pleased people with simple minds I guess.
@@mrwolf1964 Yet we're not all lucky enough to understand or used to reading research papers..and understanding the stats .. We all need to start somewhere...Rather an enquiring simple mind than a closed supposed educated one...Perhaps??
Thanks for the video, very informative as always. I just have one criticism regarding the graph axis. As the scale change below 10% serves against the point you are making. A linear scale would more easily get the point across
Absolutely correct, giving support to those who claim we’re being lied to yet again. Can’t anyone simply present the data properly so we can all try to understand?
@@patrickkoelling4212 if the graph was presented as you suggest all those under 1% would be on the bottom line and the differences undicernable. The graph has been specifically designed this way so that people with no statistics training can understand the information. Hope that helps.
@@timdenton8076 In fact, that doesn't help at all. It is those with no statistics knowledge, and those who don't scrutinize such things as ordinates, who are most fooled by "mistakes" in presentation such as this.
@@patrickkoelling4212 It is not a mistake, logarithmic scales are commonplace in science. You would need a graph about 100 times higher to display on a linear scale. They also help display the important first differential.
@@adestegreenhalgh1180 I’m sorry, but you cannot use a logarithmic scale to begin, then switch to a normal scale. That is just fibbing about the proper relationships between the objects of interest. If you want to use a logarithmic scale, fine, use one. This is NOT a logarithmic scale used throughout.
Personally I think its too early to draw conclusions and comparisons when most of the ailments its being compared with have been around for years and treatment protocols have been improved. Its clear that early in the pandemic treatment protocols were rudimentary and in some cases misplaced, health policy of putting elderly infected patients into nursing homes was wrong and the backdrop of low aged mortality in 2019 had lined up a large population of susceptible elderly people. I wont mention the witholding of early treatment and prophylactic protocols that have been demonstrated as effective in many countries.
They are scientists but your opinion is yours.
KidUKnott You’d do well to review DarkHorse and Heather Heyling’s piece on the practices in academia affecting scientific research routes. I’m afraid scientific research isn’t free of bias given the private money directing the focus thereby starving other research of merit that would challenge the narrative being funded.
finely someone who talk some sense
Where does this 1% CFR come from? Is it cases dying from AND with C ? Cause that´s the way most countries are counting c-deaths. In the end it´s more about lost life years, isn´t it?
There we have it the "CFR" as opposed to the actual probable "IFR" because of all the either very mild or Asymptomatic infections which haven't been detected plus all those in countries/regions where testing capacity has been limited, you'd have thought Tim would have at least made the differential comparison between those 2 metrics.
Will be interesting to see how omicron shifts covid's position in this graph. My expectation, based on what we've seen so far in SA, is a dramiatic shift downwards and to the right. I really hope this is the case
It's usually the case that when Coronavirus's increase in infectiousness on average they lose some of there punch to become less lethal per infection although more people becoming infected in itself could prove to still be something of an issue, the only question remains is will healthcare capacity be able to cope with it? 🤷♂️
The graph y axis was 'stretched' from 0 to 10% which exacerbates difference between cold, flu and Covid which may not be obvious to everyone. Also, is that a poster of a line drawing of recumbent female nude? Cummon.
@@adamknight7041 ; That was predicted at the start … And seems to be happening.
We had also hoped previous variants such as alpha would be more contagiois but less virulent as traditionally we've always assumed it is to the benefit of the virus to not kill too quickly but so far COVID has repeatedly proven this commonly accepted premise to be wrong, at least for the COVID variants so far. Our age old premise that viruses will evolve to become more contagious but less dangerous has always been just an assumption or rather presumption and assumes that respiratory viruses spread by the symptoms such as coughing and sneezing while well over half the spread of COVID has been asymptomatic so the severity of the disease does not impair it's spread. Certainly we hope that Omicron will be less dangerous though more contagious as we had assumed viruses would become for several decades if not a generation but once burned twice shy and this as the seventh variant of concern this is really six times burnt so how shy should you be.
As to the flu, the flu is less dangeeous but still causes deaths and we've alwats had the flu as well as we're not motivated to just get rid of it though the COVID measures taken during the 2020/2021 flu season showed, we could quite effectively be rid of the flu with a few years of measures. The flu will still kill more overall because it is less dangerous and we simply won't address it. Though this may also become true of COVID as we may simply not be able to motivate enough people for long enough to deal with it.
It won't and not because its less deadly.
Our measurements of 28 days of infection and the fact you can be pcr positive for four months after infection is ridiculous.
We really have no way of measuring what this is like and we probably never will.
Don't give a flying "F" about the fear because the science in stats tells me this is still a condition in the largely over 80 population.
The real question is: what are the median PCR cycle thresholds across all Covid19 variants and across other respiratory viruses, like the flu? This info should be widely available. I have yet to come across it. If anyone has please post links. Thank you.
Short answer is - it depends. Not all PCR tests use the same cycle values and the cycle value is linked to sensitivity. So it depends how sensitive you want your test to be and how many false positives you are prepared to accept. And the answer to that probably depends on the purpose of the test - are you trying to confirm whether a symptomatic patient has Covid or are you trying to detect Covid in people before they become infectious to others?
My father in law started with just a cold but ended up with phenomena like many others in critical care with secondary infection .He always had the flu jab every year and suffered badly every winter and didn't mix much at all .
Tim - the first graph you shared - this is helpful but a massive over simplification. It's not just about how deadly something is, but to whom. NICE considers spending on medical interventions to be considered against quality life years saved; if COVID impacts the elderly, and the flu impacts the young, then deadliness is not the right metric to use, because young people lose many more years of life than the elderly. Please can you address this.
Excellent point 👍🏼
& also impact of Long Covid.
This graph covers overall! You would create a view with further detail to answer the question of age and other factors.. then also longer impact if not fatal…
See my comment about the statistics when age is taken into account: unless a government stooge or snowflake has had it removed, in which case I'll reenter it.
I believe the point of the video was to do just that, to literally simplify the situation, for "as stated" if you are trying to point out to someone with no medical/research knowledge, the difference between a Cold/Flu and SARS COV -2 ... It needs to be just the bottom line, to get the message out there to the masses... Those who wish a more in-depth explanation will do a literature search for themselves. The general public need the bottom line ... This is NOT just a cold/flu... I think Tim did an excellent job and has clearly demonstrates this in an widely accessible manner.
Important information. However distorting the low end scale of the y axis really dilutes this important message.
The ‘information’ on this chart is totally spurious … We don’t run thousands of PCR tests for colds and flu on a daily basis … and we don’t certificate everybody who dies with a cold as a ‘cold death’.
99.998
Those figures on the flu seem a little low.. did you not mean 12,000 deaths not 1200? I was under the understanding death tolls from the flu were around 10-17,000 per year.
A genuine mistake … Maybe.
No it is correct. For that year we had very few deaths from flu.
Deaths from a flu season can vary from about 2000 up to about 20000 in a bad year
I'm a retired Biologist, pro-vaccination where it's appropriate (eg for me) & am wondering if this is based on people that died from the disease or a direct impact of the disease or is it based on people that died while testing positive for the disease. Is it possible to tell without an autopsy?
I'm not a scientist but would love to see the answers to your questions from someone knowledgeable. It is rarely discussed anywhere. My understanding is that autopsies were stopped, and doctors were instructed to ensure "covid" was put on death certificates whether positive by PCR test or even suspected! It has also been reported that Covid was to be recorded as the main cause of death even if a person died from old age, accident or non-covid primary illnesses. In Italy, an investigation into covid deaths last year found that (from memory) some 10-12% of people actually died due to covid (this report should be available on the internet). So the majority in Italy died from other primary causes and possibly WITH covid, although to be fair covid could have been a factor to some degree. If this were applied to the UK figure approx 18,000 would have died primarily due to covid from the start of the pandemic. That is pure conjecture but it's thought provoking none-the-less. I suspect we will never know.
@@AndrewKNI is it not enough assessing that a way larger number of people died during the pandemic related to respiratory/pulmonary disease? it doesn't take a Phd right?
@@michaelciancetta6397 It matters if the deceased had no symptoms of covid, what did they really die of? Wouldn't you want to know that information?
@@AndrewKNI and 18,000 deaths would be representative of a slightly above average Flu outbreak 🤔
@@tiiimmmaaayyyy3616 so how do you explain a sudden surge in deaths related to pulmonary and respiratory disease.. coincidence?
If, after all this time, I had the opportunity to try to change the views of a covid sceptic, I really doubt that there is anything I could say which would be likely to alter their their views. If they have so far remained impervious to the facts, they will probably remain so.
Covid exists, agreed. The narrative though is pure propaganda to drive an agenda.
@Tortinwall, yup.
Like some others on here who say “great video” you’ve simply lapped it up unquestioningly. On the other hand, most vax/narrative sceptics (not COVID sceptics as they are a vanishingly small group) would know that the the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate is 0.2-0.3%, not 1% which is a particular, presumably recent, case fatality rate (remember when WHO, CDC and ‘fact checkers’ were telling us the ‘fatality rate’ was 4% in March 2020? Same trick). Carefully researched papers by world-renowned epidemiologists show the infection fatality rate to be most likely 0.23-0.25%, e.g. papers by John Ionnides. He also found that the IFR for under 70s is 0.05% because that 0.23-0.25% is skewed so heavily towards the over 70s. 0.05% IFR for under 70s is less than for the flu for that age cohort. So for everyone under 70, they should be able to continue their lives as they did before COVID. The gigantic cost of lockdown for that massive majority could have been averted and about 5% of it spent on a belt and braces protection of the over 70’s. Yes, I’m one of those you are trying to persuade but you’ve just proven how woefully bereft of knowledge you are by praising this video unquestioningly. We do our research on legitimate government websites and institutional websites like the WHO (which quote a 0.2% IFR) and numerous peer reviewed papers. We’re simply light years ahead of you on this and every other aspect of the official narrative. Do better.
@@ardznails interesting you should cite Professor Ioannidis. If you search For his work ‘peer reviewed’ it seems much of his published work is criticised by his peers, both in methodology and findings, whether it’s about Covid or something else. We can all search the Internet for “facts” but will get different results based upon our own search history. Your assumption here that people who view Prof. Spector’s information as helpful, are ignorant of the matter, is also flawed thinking, based on your logarithmically controlled research. That is all I have to say on the matter.
The relative/infectious chart is incorrect. The Y axis steps in even stages from 0 - 0.1 - 10 - 20 etc.
Consider the questionable data on deaths as well please. A close friend works in ITU and earlier this year a RTA victim was classed as dying covid because he tested positive but asymptomatic at time of accident. . She says it’s madness how the deaths are reported still.
If the RTA victim had a cold, or flu … It wouldn’t be counted as a cold, or flu death … that’s for sure.
Such an important message
Even though he's wrong! 🤔
He completely missed the point about people comparing Covid to Flu, when people talk about seasonal Flu they aren't taking into account what vaccines and other medicines have achieved at suppressing INFLUENZA from becoming a significant "Pandemic" as opposed to an "endemic" equilibrium. If you want to know what would happen if an Influenza mutation totally bypassed the vaccines and/or modern therapeutics just go through historical data of every significant Flu pandemic there has ever been (not including the 2009 Swine Flu so-called "Pandemic" which never truly was) the results make for pretty grim reading especially when considering not just the amount of people who died but also the average number of life years lost.
I'm absolutely speechless that such a supposedly well respected Epidemiologist like Tim Spector was so short sighted on this occasion when drawing such unfair comparisons!
@@adamknight7041 not sure what point you’re making here. If you have some credentials then you might like to explain what they are, but if not, whatever point you are making here doesn’t really matter.
It is without doubt the problem with Covid has been overstated and the figures massaged regarding the impact of Covid. It’s still only a very small percentage of the Global population that have succumbed and the age profile is conveniently downplayed. Most importantly two years on and still no increase in the size of our NHS , hospital numbers or staff numbers. Still a huge mystery.
@@liz9147 it does matter though doesn't it? Comparing a virus which is currently endemic to one that is currently in its pandemic era isn't a proportional comparison and very misleading.
When you consider how many people have died within 28 days of having an ingrowing toe nail, we should all be a lot more concerned about keeping those toe nails trimmed. And don't get me started on the number of people dying within 28 days of a Chicken Burrito....
😂😂😂
So true! I once had an uncle called Bill Bond.
There is a SERIOUS misrepresentation of information in this comparison here... VERY dishonest from Spectre... For example.. he's comparing Spanish Flu deadliness on the same as COVID... Average age of death on COVID 80 years old... Average age of death... Spanish Flu? Healthy middle aged people... That's why it was such a problem.. Phil.. you're part of the problem
It was when the comparison of Spanish Flu to Covid was made that I switched off.
I agree, Spanish flu deaths in 2 years from 1918 to 1920, 17m to 50m depending on who you listen too and Covid 19 deaths over 2 years 5.3m.
Head in the sands is not most peoples way of learning
Very interesting and understandable graph which confirms Covid a pandemic on it's logarithmic Ro number. But how do Zoe verify R numbers and where can I gather trust and confidence in Ro's which are spread from Downing Street?
Have you no answer ?
4:44 (and earlier) That's a very interesting graph. I do have a question, though.
How do Spanish 'flu and COVID-19 compare if the outbreaks were to occur in populations with the same medical technology, that is, if COVID-19 had broken out in 1918 when industrial scale oxygen, steroidal anti-inflammatories and anti-biotics for secondary infections weren't available or, alternatively, if Spanish 'flu had broken out in 2019 and all of those things were available.
My guess (and I freely admit it's just that) is that the death rate for COVID-19 if we had 1918 technology is that virtually anyone whom we now put into intensive care would be dead. So that would push the death rate up to about 10%.
I wondered the same thing.
How do you come up with a IFR for Covid-19 of 1%? The data of Ioannidis (Stanford University) Bulletin WHO (09/2020) showed 0,23% IFR and included over 60 studies worldwide. Even more important to say, for people
My daughter just tested positive - symptoms are runny nose and sore throat
I love how the book "Spoon fed" follows Professor around the house (in the background) 😂
Profound.... on more levels than one! 👍
I think he must have several copies 🤣
I’m based in Northern Ireland and wondering if still worthwhile taking time to log ..when you have stopped reporting NI as a region
Since the outbreak of delta, the cafe fatality rate is actually sitting nearer 0.4%. when you take into account almost all people who die with covid are recorded as deaths caused by covid, and conversely flu deaths are under reported, it's easy to see how they could indeed be as deadly.
Source of your data is?
The y axis scale on the graph is misleading. It starts off logarithmic for 0.1, 1 and 10 then goes linear.
Did that mini lecture frighten you? I'm sure it was meant to.
What is best to do, is it live your life and be happy and take care regarding your health and if you're poorly avoid people until you've recovered and get on with life , or be frightened to death by pseudo experts and go and live out your life up in the attic wrapped in cotton wool!!! Is that living in happiness? Or living in fear. ?
So True
Hong Kong Flu was pretty nasty.... 80,000 deaths.
6 million worldwide
Thank you Prof. Tim, I'm far less anxious after listening to your weekly podcast. My son, double jabbed has caught Covid and has been really unwell, he is diabetic and has AF, this Covid is very nasty 😒 thank you for your invaluable support with research and informative discussions👏
Hope he feels better soon. Stay well.
Hope your son gets better soon
Praying your Son makes a full recovery 🙏🏼
@@unatwomey7112 Thank you so much.
@@susanclapham1019 thank you so much.
I lose my sense of taste and smell every time I get a cold so it's not that rare at all.
What? Are you 100,000 people?
Hi - thank you I have several friends who use "its just like flu" to justify ignoring sensible precautions. Please can you give a link for downloading the graph of severity vs infectiousness to help spread the rational message.
I actually felt more poorly with the flu, than I did with covid
@Consuelo Patagonia Lucky you! I know people that have died from COVID.
@@georgia4407 And a number who have suffered long lasting ill effects
There is talk that omicron may have picked up a common cold gene, do we need to take action?
Is there anywhere we can see "static" copies of your excellent graphs?
I was particularly struck by the comparison between measles and Covid. The former is similarly deadly and much more transmissible. And yet, and yet... when I was a child, it was "just another" childhood disease. I guess the only reason we need so much, so very much, more intervention to prevent the spread of Covid is because we seem to be able to catch it again and again: much less conferred immunity. Is that right?
SARS-CoV-2 has a 1% fatality rate? Where is this coming from? Prof Ioannidis estimated around 0.26% in early 2020. "As of 15 July, Public Health England’s modelling group, with the MRC Biostats Unit, estimated that overall infection mortality rate is approximately 0.096%" - answer to question tabled by MP Steve Baker on 12th July 2021
Ioannidis estimates the IFR for European countries around .4 to .5. An estimate like given here (1 %) seems too high to me - doesn't it.
Husband got covid from work, kept testing LFD and pcr negative for 4,5, days after contact, but started testing positive both on LFD, then pcr also positive, symptoms started a couple of days later, it's got worse and worse, but everyday seems to get different symptoms, got blocked nose, sore throat, cough, headache, feverish, uncontrollable shakes, sweating, hard to sleep, feeling sick, stomach pain, muscle pain, lost tests, all sorts of symptoms. He had AZ both doses in April. Nearly everyone at work got it. Strangely since he's been self isotaing, me and our 3 kids, close contacts, kept testing negative. It's just strange, we all have cold and flu symptoms, but it's been weeks and weeks, kept getting it from school.
Surely getting double vaccinated should have prevented him from getting the virus.
Hope he feels better soon; maybe keep in contact with the GP. Treatment has moved along since 2020.
@@wynbrown7321 Vaccines for Covid help us have reduced symptoms and are less likely to pass it on. In this case the don't stop you getting Covid. Being Less transmissible helps end pandemics sooner. Take for example other viruses we vaccinated out.
Would it be possible to get the same graph as at 2:20 but for different Covid variants and in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations?
Is that graph wrongly marked? Why woul it go in an increment of .1, then 1% then 10%?
That would be a relationship of ten times for that increment only. It should read .5% it would not change on the same graph.
A very interesting chart but stretching the scale of the y axis below 1 per cent is misleading, especially when it is not footnoted to explain this to readers who are not used to interpreting charts. I see why it has been done, because otherwise a whole lot of data points would bunch together, and the chart would be hard to read, but this needs to be fully explained.
On the graph where do the other flu variants sit? Swine flu, bird flu, SARS and MERS.
The graph is misleading at best. Age and comorbidity are a huge factor. Also, mumps being in the same category as common cold is, well, there is no other way to say, but stupid.
deaths because of flu are also related to age and comorbidty.. what are you talking about ahahahahahahahahah
@@michaelciancetta6397 ahahaha
@@jackcroatan and your argument is.... piss off 😂
That's a strange y scale... Neither log nor linear. Is that usual?
Could be possible if cos we have a cold, we don't get covid?
I have to disagree Tim. I haven't caught a cold in maybe 30 years. But the years that I did the first thing I lost was my taste and smell. I was ill with covid from March 2020 and it took a year for me to recover. I never had a temperature or a cough at all. The symptoms i had, some were never mentioned. So the symptoms mentioned, mainly if not all apply to all 3 illnesses. I think i've caught the flu maybe 4 or 5 times in my 66 years. Each bout had a gap of maybe on average 15 years. I also never knew it was the flu until about the 5th or 6th day, again i used to lose my smell and taste.
I think the loss of taste and smell is different in COVID in that it attacks the cells rather than blocking them. I've seen people mention that they were surprised they couldn't smell bleach, then they felt ill.
If you haven't had smell/taste loss from COVID, it's very different to cold/flu smell/taste impairment. You literally lose ALL ability to smell or taste.
@@unatwomey7112 Exactly this.
I haven’t had Covid, as far as I know & have only had flu once about 45 years ago. Used to get 3-4 colds a year & I think most people experience some loss of taste & smell temporarily. No colds for nearly 5 years but the last time I had one my taste & smell went completely for over 3 weeks to the point I wondered if it was ever coming back. Thankfully it did. It was quite unpleasant & I really feel for people who’ve lost these senses for weeks & months due to Covid.
Note the y axis!! 0-10% on deadliness scale is extended compared to the other 10% segments on the y axis. Obviously done to enable detail but nontheless misleading!
We are disappointed - the ZOE team may have unintentionally made mistakes, or you are revelling in the fear.
As some smart cookies have already pointed out, your scale is off, which makes it look worse than it is. You should not switch up the increments (0%, 0.1%, 1%, 10%) to fit your graph. #DopeSick
Now... Deadliness... what does that represent - case fatality rate or infection fatality rate?
Well done to those who spotted that inconsistency too. The Flu has an average IFR between 0.1%-0.2%.
However, in recent years the CFR has been 13.5%, and nobody batted an eyelid!
COVID has a CFR of around 1% globally. But, as published on the World Health Organisations website, the global IFR is estimated at 0.2%
The estimated case-fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 1.6% - 20%, depending on the interpretation of the data. The WHO has settled on 2% - 3% - 20-50 million deaths and assumes over 50% came into contact with the virus.
For those asking about SARS and MERS - SARS is said to kill 1 in 10, with over 65's at greater risk. A CFR of 11% by the end of the outbreak. While MERS had a case-fatality rate of 37%.
How about the infectiousness? The R0 is an estimate that doesn't hold up to reality. We started off with a potential rate of 3.4. Then as more transmissible variants came along, the potential infectiousness increased. 4-5 then 6-8, now, who knows. But in reality, the R0 is measured between 1 and 3.
Some would say restrictions made a difference, while others suggest human behaviour naturally changes when we are sick. Plus, being in contact with covid doesn't mean that you will contract the disease.
So, is COVID the same as the flu? No, they are clearly different diseases. COVID is a greater risk to the frail, sick, and unhealthy.
No matter what you do, support your immune system because you will be in contact with SARS-CoV-2 and over 200 cold and flu viruses.
0.1 to 0.2 was the estimated CFR for the flu, if I'm not mistaken. Now, there is obviously a pretty high number of unreported cases. So the IFR of the flu should be clearly below 0.1 to my understanding.
The graph was designed to separate the deadliness and just give a nice view. I think it was a good choice. But I can understand if someone does not like it.
This was really helpful
Is it true the pcr tests use to check three markers, if positive on all you were deemed positive for covid. Is it now true you only have to test positive on two markers to get a positive result hence the surge in cases.
Curious about why the R0 value for rabies is so high? Wouldn't you have to bite someone to infect them? (or wipe their saliva on an open wound etc)
Theee is no treatment for rabies only vaccinations.
I agree, i don't see how that is correct. Same with the HIV position on the x axis
@@sashamellon822 Almost true. See the Milwaukee protocol.
Why doesn't Ioannidis agree with this? Why are his mortality rates so much lower? He's not the only one. Why is yours at 1%?!
Different sponsors.
I think Loannidis quotes an IFR and Tim a CFR.
Which / where is the link for that graph please?
Is the rabies R0 value right? (Perhaps for non human animals?)
Seems about an order of magnitude more than I can find elsewhere, with WHO saying human-human spread is very rare.
VT’s death rate with COVID is now 0.8% down from 0.9% as our case numbers climb. Earlier comment about death rate being highest in those over 70 years is so far correct. Does that make it less troublesome to society?
We also vaccinate people against flu which we’ve only been doing against covid for less than one year- so I think comparing mortality with flu and covid deaths is unfair
We also have more naturally acquired resistance to Flu and other Common cold versions of "Coronavirus" because they've been about for generations.
It is unfair, but since when has Tim been interested in being fair and proportionate?
The data is what the data is. Your moral argument is another matter.
@@yorkcyclist Don't know i did remember him being fair enough in the beginning...But not anymore covid is only thing making his app running
What are the death rates by SARS-COV-2 by variant? The data I am seeing implies each variant is becoming less lethal.
I am 75, I had covid just before the booster vaccine, I am struggling with the side effect?
Do you take vitamin D3??
I thought you weren’t supposed to get jabbed for at least 12 weeks after catching the disease.
(Though why anyone would get a vaccine … After they’ve had the disease … !!! … is beyond me).
Thanks. Tim, I shall keep distance from people, and have my mask on, that's for sure
It obviously is in terms of death however, it only seems to unfortunately take many people who had made poor lifestyle choices 'co-morbid' so is in a way a virus that has shown us how unhealthy the population is or how unhealthy we have been made by the 'offered' diets and lifestyle offerings!
I’m sure the families of all the young people who have died from Covid, who had no co morbidities will take great comfort from your view 🤦🏻♂️
What a shame all the elderly people made a poor lifestyle choice to live that long, or the pregnant women who are dying of Covid made the poor lifestyle choice to get pregnant 🙄
@@AndyC2_ which isn't very many at all, approximately only 1% of all "Covid-related" mortality has occurred in those under the age of 50 or in other words roughly 1,400 in the UK including those with co-morbidities, under 40 only just over 100 have died "from" Covid who had no known pre-existing conditions.
@@AndyC2_ That is why if you read and understand what I write I stipulate 'unfortunately take many people' and unfortunately 'truth' gives no comfort as I am not writing about any form of comfort here it is science and research.
If you research you will find the average age of death in females 'DUE' to COVID 82.5 years (median age 85 COVID involved) and again, IF you research any pregnancy death it will be a PCR positive with complications present during pregnancy also pregnancy has a strong weakening effect on a person (that's why we had so many child mortalities in the past and dragged the average age of death down to 45 years old not so many decades ago) and hence many become immunosuppressed (especially if they are not on a good diet and take outside exercise). This will then guide people to conclude scientifically (not emotionally as Science and Medical Science is not emotive).
Poor lifestyle choices (ex: too many sugars/fructose) are epigenetic in nature and 99.7% of people who have died from/with COVID-19 symptoms will be weakened (co-morbid) 'metabolic illness' the others if we research will unfortunately have some probably 'unknown' immunodeficiency. This virus is no different to many others, it will unfortunately take the susceptible.
The 'Truth' is it is our responsibility to take care of our own health and SARS-CoV2 has highlighted this clearly by the current data, I personally have had a daughter who miscarried during the pandemic she was on medication, no medication is actually good for anyone it is a simple choice to create a better outcome based on risk.
I wish you well
@@AndyC2_ That is why if you read and understand what I write I stipulate 'unfortunately take many people' and unfortunately 'truth' gives no comfort as I am not writing about any form of comfort here it is science and research.
If you research you will find the average age of death in females 'DUE' to COVID 82.5 years (median age 85 COVID involved) and again, IF you research any pregnancy death it will be a PCR positive with complications present during pregnancy also pregnancy has a strong weakening effect on a person (that's why we had so many child mortalities in the past and dragged the average age of death down to 45 years old not so many decades ago) and hence many become immunosuppressed (especially if they are not on a good diet and take outside exercise). This will then guide people to conclude scientifically (not emotionally as Science and Medical Science is not emotive).
Poor lifestyle choices (ex: too many sugars/fructose) are epigenetic in nature and 99.7% of people who have died from/with COVID-19 symptoms will be weakened (co-morbid) 'metabolic illness' the others if we research will unfortunately have some probably 'unknown' immunodeficiency. This virus is no different to many others, it will unfortunately take the susceptible.
The 'Truth' is it is our responsibility to take care of our own health and SARS-CoV2 has highlighted this clearly by the current data, I personally have had a daughter who miscarried during the pandemic she was on medication, no medication is actually good for anyone it is a simple choice to create a better outcome based on risk.
MEANING: We weaken as we get older by lifestyle choice however, we can enhance our immunity and live with fit and healthy immune systems into old age the statement 'oh well I am old I get weaker as I get older is a simple fallacious cop out' yes we weaken naturally and slow down however, at this rate we will be effecting our average life expectancy very soon.
I wish you well
Polio was vaccinated out of existence? Citation needed. Polio seems to have come back in places with the reintroduction of DDT use in Africa to control mosquitos.
Citation for the sources for the graph would be great!
Back of the envelope calculations puts the Spanish Flu at about 50x deadlier than COVID, killing 50m on a planet with only 1.8b in 1919... vs COVID killing 5.31m out of a population of 7.7b
I think it is too oversimplified to just use a single number for the mortality rate over all groups.
My understanding is that the level of deadliness and infectiousness of a virus is a dynamic value and not a static value, i.e. generally overtime the value is decreasing on both axes. Why are you presenting these values as being a static value???
Based on under reporting in alot of countries 17,000,000 have died globally
You need to cite the source for the graph data. I'm pretty sure that Sars-CoV-2 does not have a fatality rate of 1%.
Exactly but Tim is not interested in facts.
Your data is?
This NEEDS to be on MSM NOW 👍👍👍👍
Brilliant graph (I hope people are reading the scale properly, wish the 1% range was coloured to make it clear)