The Coming Storm: How AI & Fed Changes Will Reshape Your Investments | Danielle DiMartino Booth
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- Опубліковано 7 лип 2024
- QI Research founder and former Dallas Fed adviser Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we’re barreling toward stagflation.
Danielle unpacks a litany of troubling economic data in our interview. Layoffs are spreading from tech to retail, manufacturing, and transportation. And for the first time ever, Americans are paying more to service their non-mortgage debt than their mortgage debt.
Danielle and I also cover AI’s impact on jobs, short-sighted Covid-era policies, and the coming “condo-mageddon.”
Investors, watch to the end for Danielle’s thoughtful guidance on what this all means for the markets and where to look for safe havens.
Learn about Danielle DiMartino Booth’s letter, The Daily Feather, here: dimartinobooth.substack.com/GMU
Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on LinkedIn here: / dimartinobooth
Learn more about Danielle DiMartino Booth here: quillintelligence.com
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Time stamps:
00:00 - Introduction
01:30 - The Fed’s dual mandate is back
05:23 - Are we already in a recession?
08:17 - Layoffs spread across the economy
13:08 - Essentials inflation and “condo-mageddon”
14:45 - Is stagflation coming?
16:31 - How COVID stimulus money changed Americans
22:27 - The danger of letting teachers’ unions set policy
25:26 - How investors should prepare
29:12 - Research on leading indicators
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Excellent interview! Danielle has so much knowledge and experience that she can barely talk fast enough to express all the ideas she wants to convey.
I disagree with some of her statement regarding lack of work ethic. I think that decision came from the Chamber of Commerce which drove small business out versus big business and distorted the wage structure. The wealth from business owners came from the exploitations of the employee. If employees can not earn enough to pay for food and rent why wouldnt the employee look elsewhere. The financialization industry scheming versus manufacturing industry , you know the easy money had a negative effect on job losses and incomes that policy had a greater negative effect then the working ethics that she is referring to. It's the policy of exploitation of the working folks that's the problem.
Curious. Was Teddy Roosevelt busting to save consumers from exploitation, perhaps both. Was that when said exploitation began?
How can Americans afford to drive and take the risk of an accident without car insurance? Canadians must have car insurance to renew their license.
Well done, Ed!
What triggered the pivot .. at 3.9% unemployment? Great question. A massive 😂 5% hissy fit S&P correction most likely. Keep it oiled, God forbid interest rates ever permanently going back to normal.
Why no mention of M2? Funds rate doesn’t matter as much.
You can't fix stupid. You take the debt, you learn the ramifications. Danlelle is my girl.
Question, you said that we meanig ( companines ) are forced to take on union workers.. I though the workers, made a choice ( decision ) , that they employes wanted, worker protection ! With a union...
How is there a pivot? QT is still on!
2-yr. & 10-yr. did not uninvert yet, though.
Rate cuts are bearish not bullish... look at a chart for goodness sake.
In one side the globalisation was a huge mistake. It contributed to the fact that you find all over the world the same low value mass products from shoes over clothes etc. And millions of small traditional shops which we had over generations just disapeared. Thats so sad bcz the variaty and the craftsmanship is gone forever. Go and find in a bigger town a traditional shoemaker, which is able to do more then a heel service. If you find one, its a specialist which maybe make handmade shoes as well, for a fortune. Crazy and sad.
And now comes answer for this greedy times we had. Just ask myself whatfore the banks payed Billions in Bonus for their Managers and Hedgefund Traders, when now the banks are broke. Where this money went to for what??
We have laws which benefit the wealthy and charge the working class. For how long we are willing getting ripped off??
She should be great as head of the Fed. Unfortunately, she won't be able to bend and follows other plan.
The Gov let their big donator$$$ friends remain open, and the rest of the small businesses closed.
You know what does not have revisions? - Earnings, and they are fine
Fair point! I cannot recall a time of deeper divergence of opinion among economists.
McDonald's, Nike, FedEx all "fine"
Earnings have been terrific for some companies but basically the top100 of the S&P which had 75% of all profits according to Stephanie Pomboy on a recent Thoughtful Money interview. Below the biggest 100 companies in the index, most are barely hanging on or are under water. Additionally she explained that consumer confidence is down along with savings and consumers are now in debt with credit cards at high interest and are defaulting on their debt. So it's looking like consumers will stop buying anything except essential items and this will crush demand. They said Govt is talking about opening up home equity loans through Freddie Mac which could extend the party a little longer but at some point soon it looks like everything will be exhausted and the bubble will pop. I've heard a few predictions that there will be a pretty substantial slowdown this summer.
The founding Fathers believed in the work ethic of slaves!
Talks about the number of people working multiple jobs to make ends meets... Follows that up talking about bad work ethic from the population.
Inconsistent.
Danielle seems very ignorant to the requirements put in place during the New Deal to protect the same things she's now criticized as "ESG,DEI." The progressive policies of the New Deal pulled progressives from the Republican Party and created a Democrat majority. She's just ignorant on a lot of topics tbh. She should just stick to the research and report on that.
Please, give us your unique information and knowledge.
"Founding fathers" believed in using someone else's labor for free. They definitely did not believe in a strong work ethic. Terrible start to begin the video.
So much wrong with your statement. I'll leave it at that