Not to flatter myself, but like Shibang, I was also very skeptical about the Politico report late last year that Qin Kong had died in some CCP hospital, but for different reasons. First, there was NEVER any evidence that Qin was a "spy," or at least I haven't seen any--all of the rumors lacked any corroboration, but more importantly, it didn't make any logical SENSE. Qin was already near the top of the CCP leadership and was only poised to rise higher, so what incentive did he have to spy for the US or any other country? What could the US or any country give Qin that CCP couldn't, especially knowing what CCP could do to him if he did turn against them? As the chief diplomat, but not necessarily connected with the military, what Qin could've revealed as a "spy" would've been of limited value, anyway. Lots of these talking head such as Little Wu from Formosa News even tried without any evidence to link Qin with the Rocket Force purges, suggesting that Qin was involved in some "espionage" that sank the Rocket Force (what super secret info would Qin know about rockets???). The other main reason is that I've read a lot of American media, and unlike what the Taiwanese or other non-American outlets believe, Politico does NOT have a great reputation for first-hand reporting. Some of them seem to think that if it's a major American or Western media, then it must be true or was based on sound sources and reporting--wrong on both counts in some cases (Politico is NOT a big outlet compared to other sources like the NYTimes, Washington Post, etc., anyway). In the US, Politico's real reputation is more like a rumor mill that panders various political or partisans rumors, leaks, and little opinion pieces, often just rehashes; most people don't even know who they are. I have never heard the Politico to make any real significant breaks in news in this past about US developments (where it has better connections), let alone some exclusives about secretive China (where I doubt it even has ONE reporter). So from the get-go I didn't like the source and therefore didn't trust the info. The only thing that lent some superficial if understandable support to all these conspiracy theories and rumors is the unexplained disappearance (or to borrow a term Chinese/Taiwanese media like to use, "evaporated"), lasting to this day (it's been what, 8 months?). Of course, CCP lies all the time also, but usually not openly this way about Qin not being dead (a dead man can't resign, based on my experience:)). There would be too much blowback and loss of face if he turns out to have died long ago. Further speculations will go toward whether he has any chance of coming back, after serving out whatever punishment he's serving for whatever offenses to the CCP or Xi he supposedly committed. This type of vague speculation is about the best that one can do about innermost CCP secrets--don't trust youtubers or other people who tell you they have special or insider "sources."
中肯，不偏不倚，不放任何情緒的分析！日本人的嚴謹態度👍。 喜歡看矢板先生報導❤❤❤
太喜欢看矢板先生的节目了
谢谢矢板先生分享专业经验，一般老百姓确实没有这样的思考能力。
他的分享是一会一变，跟风儿
感謝！
法律是用來參考的而不是板上釘釘必須執行的❤❤❤❤❤❤黑幕鐵幕❤❤❤❤❤❤只能猜測❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
是的，只有大陆出来的人才知道大陆有多封闭…对这种感悟才够深……
大陆出来的人对大陆体会才是足够深，一言难尽😂😂
矢板明夫，厲害👍👍👍👍👍
他完全可以死了，但也不耽误他现在辞去人大代表，这事对党国太简单了。
一个国家有一个国家的传统，甚至一个村都有一个村的传统。共产党当然也不例外！我不认为李克强的死是谋杀！因为中共没有暗杀高官的传统，苏共俄罗斯才有！矢板明夫也说了，中国一般不隐瞒高官的死！所以自然也不会隐瞒秦刚的死！有些人虽然死的离奇，比如徐明，但不会被隐瞒。
👍👍❤
秦刚没有露面,都很难说
中共不是苏共。苏共暗杀领导人，中共没有这个习惯！苏共隐瞒领导人去世的消息，中共也没有！所以大概率秦刚没死！
同意👍矢板明夫先生的分析, 因為中國也沒宣佈秦剛的死訊。只能說不清楚
👍👍👍
我不喜歡石板明夫，但是喜歡石板明夫實事求是的精神
矢板大大太神了 受益良多 謝謝
👍👍👍👍👍
这期节目太好了，和王剑老师早年的节目里解说自己在中国跑政治新闻的经验，有异曲同工之妙！
@RICKBLAINE-kj2nq王剑就是个垃圾，我听了半年多才发现这人实际屁都不是，就是为了赚钱
@RICKBLAINE-kj2nq 哈哈，听听而已，吸收自己觉得有用的信息就好吧。别人的嘴长别人身上 ，咱的脑子长自己头上 :D
看過失板先生的「曾經以為中國很幸福」這本書，就喜歡上了這個節目，不偏不倚，客觀分析！
你说的对
我想问问，矢板先生日文现在说得怎么样了
不，沒看到人都有可能是假的
全球80亿人，你没看到的是不是都死了？
*早上好呀，*
说到“当年勇”，石板，三天前看到一个之前你和汪浩兄一年前主持的节目。那期是探讨中共开完会后，习近平去了毛泽东的革命圣地，李克强去了邓小平的改革前沿(这两个地方我忘了是哪了)，别的人觉得是他们俩各有分工，而你的评价和其他人的观点很不一样，你说中共内部的关系要看他们的路线是否一样(你的原话不是这样，但是意思应该是一样的)。这是你在李死亡之前的分析，李是去年11月份死的吧，但是你之前就“当年勇”了，其实也不算当年，就是去年的事，所以觉得你说得很准。我咋刚发现你呢！了不起的推测，每一个都很扎实！
李克强是去年10月27日挂掉的
中共是遵守惯例的吗？
精辟
矢板明夫👍👍👍
先生，您对中国还是不太了解呢。死亡没有必要辞职声明，这不是铁定的啊。未宣布的死亡=活着，不是吗？隔壁人都知道我妈妈是什么时候去世的，但是，隔壁家谁又能确定国家主席的真实去世时间呢？
矢板先生是中國國情專家，我們的執政黨應該善用他的專長，幫助政府做政策的判斷
看下面的评论，没必要跟他们说这些，他们只相信自己想相信的。假新闻必然是有市场的。看这些评论就知道为什么。
为啥一直切镜头
看着好奇怪，跳跃，不舒服
秦刚没死和死了没什麻両様。秦刚的死活早変民間的演義故事了。
书架上那个熊是怎么回事啊？
🛋🛋🛋沙发🛋🛋🛋
中共做事讲究“传统”……比如官员去世这事，中共一般不会隐瞒不公布的！
秦刚成植物人了
你又如何确定他亲自递交辞呈的呢？太幼稚啦吧，你竟然在当今的环境谈常识……
人家说的是“秦刚死了”是假新闻
我认为秦刚死是假消息但我是凭直觉，我不认为矢板明夫的方法是正确的，不透明啥事都有可能发生，不能用正常逻辑来解释！
这事儿难说。
品香大师鉴别假新闻的能力我是拜服的,没有这种过硬的能力怎么品香?
确定已经死了，你在分析也是无法改变的事实！
Not to flatter myself, but like Shibang, I was also very skeptical about the Politico report late last year that Qin Kong had died in some CCP hospital, but for different reasons. First, there was NEVER any evidence that Qin was a "spy," or at least I haven't seen any--all of the rumors lacked any corroboration, but more importantly, it didn't make any logical SENSE. Qin was already near the top of the CCP leadership and was only poised to rise higher, so what incentive did he have to spy for the US or any other country? What could the US or any country give Qin that CCP couldn't, especially knowing what CCP could do to him if he did turn against them? As the chief diplomat, but not necessarily connected with the military, what Qin could've revealed as a "spy" would've been of limited value, anyway. Lots of these talking head such as Little Wu from Formosa News even tried without any evidence to link Qin with the Rocket Force purges, suggesting that Qin was involved in some "espionage" that sank the Rocket Force (what super secret info would Qin know about rockets???).
The other main reason is that I've read a lot of American media, and unlike what the Taiwanese or other non-American outlets believe, Politico does NOT have a great reputation for first-hand reporting. Some of them seem to think that if it's a major American or Western media, then it must be true or was based on sound sources and reporting--wrong on both counts in some cases (Politico is NOT a big outlet compared to other sources like the NYTimes, Washington Post, etc., anyway). In the US, Politico's real reputation is more like a rumor mill that panders various political or partisans rumors, leaks, and little opinion pieces, often just rehashes; most people don't even know who they are. I have never heard the Politico to make any real significant breaks in news in this past about US developments (where it has better connections), let alone some exclusives about secretive China (where I doubt it even has ONE reporter). So from the get-go I didn't like the source and therefore didn't trust the info.
The only thing that lent some superficial if understandable support to all these conspiracy theories and rumors is the unexplained disappearance (or to borrow a term Chinese/Taiwanese media like to use, "evaporated"), lasting to this day (it's been what, 8 months?). Of course, CCP lies all the time also, but usually not openly this way about Qin not being dead (a dead man can't resign, based on my experience:)). There would be too much blowback and loss of face if he turns out to have died long ago.
Further speculations will go toward whether he has any chance of coming back, after serving out whatever punishment he's serving for whatever offenses to the CCP or Xi he supposedly committed. This type of vague speculation is about the best that one can do about innermost CCP secrets--don't trust youtubers or other people who tell you they have special or insider "sources."
不是还有秦始皇的死讯被隐瞒了吗？
请问，这位主播为什么要起一个貌似日本的名字？
父亲是日本人，他在国内上的小学。
...... 除非秦刚露面 ......
自己都承認曾經有錯，當然找了個鬥爭失敗的藉口。
0:50处，我就推测，您的鉴别假新闻的方法不可靠呢，也就不往下看了。
😅憑什麼相信他們會遵守人大代表內規？
zg从来没有规则
你过去说的对、预测准确不代表这件事说的对。
苦口婆心有何用。 有的人就喜欢这样的假消息， 有的人喜欢另外的假消息。 普通有立场的百姓只看自己喜欢看到的新闻。
可以，然后你自己天天说假新闻
你又信了。矢板你也太天真了。
那你为什么当时不指出来？
@user-br8ir9uq6x 谢谢矢板先生的回复。我就是随口一说，你还当真了。期待矢板先生能开一个时间长点的自己的直播
@@蔡斌峰你的智力是有多低啊，这不是他的账号 3 个粉丝😂😂😂
矢板明夫说的很好，但是没有脖子
你怎么这么相信人大放出的消息？
所以垬随便发一个“红头文件”，就一定是真的咯？
秦刚的辞呈可能是"被辞呈" !
既然矢板自認中南海聽床功夫那麼好，你的中共高層內部消息渠道那麼多，為什麼要調離北京支局，來到台灣？這豈不是浪費資源、自廢武功嗎！
口嗨 编谎的名嘴而已！跟中国大陆境内的那些个“大师”没什么区别！可以理解为一个出了名的营销号大博主而已！
也许，真死了，做给你看而已
而且有时候就是明着演给你看，你也不敢说三道四😂😂
也可能是黨不經意的借了他的腦袋用了！🤣
秦刚都不重要，死了也没必要隐瞒
太像韩红了
胡说八道
李克强一个文官，怎么会去就任军委副主席？
这个消息完全不用采信！
哦？在下孤陋寡闻了。
多谢指教 @user-br8ir9uq6x
明显的自己给自己找台阶，敢不敢现身
薛定谔的秦刚
吹牛
接受辞呈posthumously?
郎才女貌
矢板明夫是川粉呃
假新聞？您是不是指您這次金門事件您自己說過的“大陸漁民是解放軍冒充的”這句話？ 怎麼辦，透過AI人臉識別結果表明兩個人完全不是一個人，相似度極低。那麼您節目裡張嘴就來的這個假新聞怎麼算？？
看完了，全是废话，水平不怎么样，为什么呢¿因为通篇都是按照法律，按照常识，但大陆要是能按这些来看，也不会修宪，常委人选出乎意料了，他唯一说得对的，可能就是报道没有署名很奇怪了
美国之音中文部没人啦！只好找一些阴谋论作家 造谣口嗨的名嘴！比起以前李素 卡拉那个时代水平降了不少！远不如隔壁的BBC 甚至是德国之声。更别说什么 纽约时报 新闻周刊 华盛顿邮报了
矢板明夫是非常客觀的媒體人，他分析事情都很精闢,他不會亂說。我們就姑且信之，尊重他的發言及說明
如果秦刚不辞职，怎么办？秦刚是亲美派，现在根据亲美需要，重新出山了。无人可以替代秦刚哦。
死了还能活，活的可说死。
那他被冬眠了吗？怎么不出来露个脸？
薄熙来没有露脸吗？开庭的时候他没有出来？我在美国都看到他在视频里露着脸，戴着手铐。@RICKBLAINE-kj2nq
你还是分析一下，日本的政治黑金案，是不是和美国有关吧。
方法一，就是类似仕版道明之流的嘴里说出的一般都是胡说，不可信，哎！
谢谢屎板先生😋
這個人為什麼一直在用支語
日本人评中国的事
节目别具一格，有特色。
最好笑的笑话，他们会遵守法律
既然如此能够判断假消息还总在节目里面说些捕风捉影的事情。既然如此能够判断假消息连李老师这么明显的钓鱼号都看不出来。亏你在中国当了十年记者。
都说他死了，你也说过。
👍👍👍