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Why San Francisco's Earthquake Risk Is Growing
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- Опубліковано 14 сер 2024
- A U.S. Geological Survey report says that there is more than a 70 percent chance that a 6.7 magnitude or higher earthquake will hit the Bay Area in the next 30 years. Here's why San Francisco is not as ready as one may think when the next big earthquake hits.
Two major earthquakes have hit the Bay Area in modern history. In 1906, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake hit San Francisco and 80 percent of the city's buildings fell or burnt to the ground, leaving 300,000 people homeless and killing nearly 3,000. In 1989, a 6.9 magnitude quake caused the ground to liquefy in parts of the city and collapsed highways, killing more than 60 people.
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Why San Francisco's Earthquake Risk Is Growing
And just like pandemic predictions, we will do nothing to address this until it hits
Facts
Maybe a jab and booster would help ......can’t hurt .
... if it hits. It likley won't.
Pandemic?
True
As a structural engineer, I designed earthquake strengthening systems for those "soft story" type buildings at 4:30 in the video. There were no adequate products to fit into congested garages, so I invented my own. It's now patented and used in over a dozen cities in the East Bay, Peninsula, North Bay, Pleasanton..... but SF has so far allowed it in only ONE building after the system went through an independent engineering review. The reasoning behind SF's hesitancy would make a good story in itself.
If Japan can build earthquake-resistant cities, we can too. All future construction should be built to withstand strong earthquakes, liquefaction, and soil subsidence, and old buildings should be retrofitted whenever possible.
The USA is way behind Japan in many areas not just infrastructure. Americans do not think like japanese community and others above they self that’s the japanese. Americans…mmmmm.
Then all buildings will become Japanese style,
@@yogadarmawan3051 what do you mean Japanese style? You mean more resistant to earthquake style?
@@thelastdefenderofcamelot5623 skyscrapers are actually some of the most earthquake resistant buildings
Im sorry but there are too many corrupt and lazy "public servants" for any of that to be feasible
Most older San Francisco Victorian homes are built of wood. Wood gives in earthquakes as I experienced in the 1989 quake. My building twisted and turned but had no more damage than a broken bay window.
Wood frame is not going to save you from soft story exposure.
A quake on a local fault could shake with 20 times the intensity that SF experienced during the Loma Prieta quake, which was centered 60 miles away.
@@thormatteson7141 This is the thing that baffles me about SF. People think that "oh it survived the last few quakes, so the chances of it holding up the next one must be very high!"
@@walamaking .... but it's true.
@@anthonydavid5121how do you know if the prior earthquake, though did not result in a collapse, weakened a building’s support structure to make it more vulnerable to future earthquakes?
Things are going so well, I kinda forgot about the earthquakes.
Things are going well in SF?
encinobalboa I'm sure it was sarcasm
If there was a Tsunami in SF then the earthquake gotta be right around the corner.
@@encinobalboa geologically at least
@@y.e.a.h5634 Tsunami would flsuh the giant toilet that is SF ala the movie San Andreas.
I've heard that after a major earthquake, housing prices are fairly quick to recover because the chances for the next major earthquake diminish significantly.
That’s interesting, a neighborhood gets hit with an earthquake, you would think nobody would want to live there, but home prices suggest that people can’t wait to get in
The stock market knows best
@@CaptainBenjamins Nature is unpredictable.
@@forloop7713 Nature is unpredictable.
You don't think that is from housing supply going down?
And here I am living in one of those San Francisco buildings 🤦🏾♂️ Fingers crossed we stay safe !
I always find keeping a rabbits foot or 4 leaf clover is much more effective
than just keeping fingers crossed.
We will all die. Don't be sad
Wear a hard hat all the time!
3:54 yet another rerun... why is CNBC uploading all of these old videos without disclosure haha
was this 7 years old
@@shaduck06 most likely not
Same old Yak-yak from 50 years ago.
Yes noticed this as well. “When it’s built in 2018”-you mean 4 years ago? 🙄
When the earthquake hits, they want to be able to say: "I told you so !".
This ad was brought to you by the earthquake insurance companies
I literally got an email from my renters insurance around the same time reminding me I don’t have earthquake coverage.
It's been UNUSUALLY quiet lately on the earthquake front in California!
It's the "calm before the storm," so to speak, as the stress on the faults are ready to blow!
Actually, the more earth quakes happen, the more the ”pressure builds”. Thus, it being more quiet is a good thing 😊
Nothing like walking into a (usually old) building in SF that's plastered with the "you're effed if inside while earthquake" notices. Haven't seen THAT many notices but when I do, makes me think twice about entering lol
SF should be learning from Mexico City in how to build skyscrapers and buildings to withstand both earthquakes and unstable soils. We have similar effects in CDMX and ever since the 1985 quake the building codes got kncredibly tough. Recent builidngs have proven to be quake - resistant as showed in the recent 7+ quake of 2017. They are more expensive to build but they are safer in the long run; we took our lessons from japanese buildings and regulations, and they've worked.
It's like you didn't even watch the video. San Fran did learn and uses the same methods/tech that Mexico City uses. Skyscrapers are not the risk in San Fran. Little buildings are....
@@tanookimarketing I'll give you that I didn't include the word for 'other buildings' but that was my point. To follow the building codes, because medium buildings were the main focus of the revisited building code created and updated eversice the 1985 quake. Most of the collapsed buildings in CDMX were smaller scale buildings, with a few large exceptions like the Tlatelolco's Nuevo Leon tower. Since the vast majority of deaths were from medium-small buildings, the code mostly focused on regulating these typologies. So yeah, my comment stands, and no, they haven't learned altogether, but I'll highly recommend you to discharge your anger through something other than comments and not assuming 5tup1dity from everyone, especially against people attempting to give constructive criticism.
@@CogitoErgoSumFortis San Francisco didn’t need to learn from Mexico City. It learned within its own mistakes. And how to battle quakes.
Mexico City is literally sinking
@@CogitoErgoSumFortis SF homes after the 1989 earthquake are held to a higher standard, lots of lessons were learned, same way el D.F. learned a great deal after 1985 earthquake. California homes structures are built to very rigorous standards because of that great risk, and because of that and other factors as well, property is very expensive. The fact of the matter is most old structures here have withstood previous powerful earthquakes, the concern in the video is a bit overstated but that is done to make sure the public understands the risk as most tend to underestimate these kinds of risks until they happen.
One other thing to add is prior to 1989 earthquake, the geologic data on earthquakes only went to about 1890's, and there was a period between 1910's and 1980's where earthquakes were less strong and less frequent, so most experts underestimated the risk and structrures were built around that lower standard, thats why the risk exists at all. Many parts of the world expeirenced the same problems, now after more data we know a lot better, and a great deal is spent on improving infrastructure. The biggest hazard tbh in California in my opinion is probably Dams actually.
San Francisco should draw inspiration from Japanese buildings that are known to be resistant to large earthquakes
California should draw a lot of inspiration from Japan and the European Union. The infrastructure and transportation is much more efficient and improved than California
It does. Did you not watch the video? San Francisco has quake resistant skyscrapers.
@@ritvikkumar504 Very evident that you didn’t watch the movie. European buildings are not up to par with earthquake resistance capabilities compared to Bay Area buildings. Stop spreading misinformation with your myopic understanding of the subject.
The Transamerica building is arguably the safest in the city, it's not like they don't have the blueprint or like it's a new building. Something else is wrong here.
@@ritvikkumar504 ok why would Europe need to worry about earthquakes
I was here living in Emeryville at one end of the Oakland Bay Bridge and not far from the collapsed I-80 double decker freeway. That evening I was South of Market in San Francisco, an area that also saw much damage. Anyway, it was frightening. However, Emeryville is a mile or two from the overdue Hayward fault - so, joy ahead. 🤨
Thanks for sharing. I was wondering where you were when that earthquake struck.
People over paying for all this realestate wait till it comes crashing down 😂
Nothing like watching this video from 15 story building in San Francisco.
Torre Latinoamericano in Mexico city survived 3 major earthquakes since 1950s
I hate to say it, but a earthquake in SF would be a landlords dream because of the eviction moratorium.
The upscale evicted would be mixing with the no class homeless.
California is a disaster, regardless. 🤣😅😆
@@blackduk6200 so is YB 🤣🤣🤣
@@thomasauslander3757 either that or go to their other home in Belize
True
That city sucks
I'm currently in SF for the next week. Why did I watch this video 😂
that millenium tower that they have in san francisco isngoing to yeet first,,
its wild they built that after the 90s 🤖🤖
3:55: 2018? How old is this content?
Waving hi from Mission n Geneva. Family has been in the same house for 70 years ❤. Big ole Grand Victorian on 4 lots.
Wow
at 3:52 she says 5M SF of office building space is expected to be completed in 2018, how old is this video? is this a reupload?
@1:35 I squirm when I hear people use the letter 'O' as a zero. Ugh. It's nineteen-hundred six, not nineteen 'O' six.
I feel sorry for all beautiful Animals when these disasters, and the constante arson happen…Please, God, please, Universe, bless and protect them all!
I feel the same way. Those poor animals have nowhere to go and rely on humans to protect them.
dangerously beautiful san francisco america
Isn't this a problem everywhere on the West Coast , from Vancouver all the way to Tijuana?
Please don't mention this again.
I told you this was supposed to be kept secret.
That’s the scary thing. The rest of the ring of fire has been very active, from south pacific volcanoes to earthquakes up and down Asia and the central and south Americas, yet the US/Canada West Coast has been eerily absent from the activity just as our democracy fractures and our cultural divide splits wide open. One can only wonder if we’re on the way towards an epic set of disasters, from mega hurricanes up and down the east coast and one big quake after another down the west coast, striking us a mortal blow.
It is super scary! Yes, Vancouver and Victoria and the towns around the coastline are also at risk when the big one hits. After all that the world has gone through with the climate change and the pandemic, that's the last thing the world needs, that once the pandemic becomes endemic and life returns to normal that something like this might happen.
@@HaleyMary Might? Will! Worse, that 9 point subduction quake up there will level much of the urban PNW on both sides of the border, and if history is any guide, will lower mountains to let the sea in, before pushing them back up, elsewhere!!!
People could look it up but I remember the '89 earthquake was a 7.1 on the Richter Scale.
We’ve been having swarms of small quakes on the Hayward fault lately..a Big One is coming.have your shoes near when it does happen.
What if glass broke and fell? Is there something to stop that?
spider man
Hopefully they are shatter resistant like car windows
I shot a street light once when i was a kid and it smashed a car's window out. I was into physics and did all sorts of active wild stuff and i did not expect that at all it's like when water turns out to be really powerful and catches you by surprise.
The GG Bridge Cables inside the sheath remained Uninspected since the thirty's when it was built. Shameful.
Very scary.
i’m gonna go yell at my mom to buy earthquake insurance now
its a sign that God is angry
Single family 1 and 2 story homes are low risk. It's all of these condos and apts from the 60s and early across the Bay that have that soft story. There is basically zero lateral support, so they collapse.
@@AB-nv7bz the millennium tower seems like a safe bet
Millennium Tower should be very concerned with earthquakes.
Me who’s going to San Francisco tomorrow: *Hmmmmm interesting*
I also live like an hour away from San Francisco so I’m in danger 😃
Not really actually.. I don't get why everyone is sacred of a earthquake, it's not a big of a deal, well to me, since I know it's gonna happen in a couple of decades. I live in the silicon valley, 30 minutes away from SF btw
How do they know the "maximum earthquake ability" the San Andreas fault can produce ??? What if several earthquake faults fracture at the same time ??? I remember the Alaskan earthquake in 1964 that created a Tsunami, destroyed most of Anchorage Alaska by shaking, flooding, and fire. In some cases the streets opened up and there were 20 foot deep trenches in downtown Anchorage streets.
the plate boundary in Alaska is a convergent w/ a subduction element, which causes the largest earthquakes we have seen (along with hot spots like Missouri). Strike-slip plate boundaries like the ones in the Bay Area generally don't produce earthquakes greater than 8.0
So there are two cities basically waiting for the big one long time ago, one is San Francisco with all the economic support to avoid huge damages and the city of Lima in Peru waiting for an 8 or 8.5 soon for decades, fortunately cities like Mexico DF or Santiago de Chile have better understanding because of their constantly earthquakes almost every month from different intensities.
It's not a case of if' it's a case of when. No one will be ready. How does one prepare their emontions?
I mean insurance and having supplies is a way to prepare
Lots of comments on here about Japan's vs. California's building codes. They are actually quite similar, but Japan has invested more in retrofitting older buildings. Knowledge learned from major quakes is shared internationally and incorporated into building codes worldwide.
except SF
One aspect skipped over in the soft-story issue is that those are the buildings that make up much of the fabric of what makes San Francisco, San Francisco; the neighborhood shops under apartments, not just the garages. Sadly, in the push to get this done (and it has to be done) a lot of long standing businesses that have weathered all sorts of modern challenges have been put out of business when forced out for the retrofit. And that, was pre-Covid. Other, larger old buildings, like the big “brick” structure right across from the Ferry building, aren’t as they seem. Built for the Southern Pacific Rwy, that building was always a brick covered steel frame building, built on lessons learned from 1906. But it isn’t even that any more; like the former Matson building now subsumed into the PGE complex (itself no longer PGE) is a post 1906 facade, on the outside of a new concrete inner shell, with an entirely new interior floor plan, and along with that extra earthquake safety coming in, out went all the elegance of the old structure, only bits and pieces of the Matson and PGE lobbies remain, and nothing remains of the Southern Pacific’s once elegant lobby whatsoever. We need to rebuild for earthquake safety but we’re losing so much in the process that one has to wonder if we’re destroying the City to save it.
Businesses come and go. So do buildings, I guess, but nothing is being "destroyed" worse than an actual building collapsing by having businesses die in transition. Can leave families homeless.
@@snipingwes Yes, but the point is SF is just handling this badly. The choice isn’t protecting buildings or letting them fall down, it’s protecting buildings, preserving businesses, and architectural details. Our sidewalks (without even considering the homeless catastrophe) are ugly outside of our neighborhoods because of the removal of architectural detail, then, looking past that, in too many buildings (like the SP bldg) you don’t see any elegance inside, nothing to draw you in as you see in so many other American cities, from NYC to Portland and Seattle. The city only cares about social programs because that’s what the activists care about, and nobody is paying attention to the City itself, which is being whittled away to nothing.
As long as humans don't die it's ok to go to the extreme.
@@syasyaishavingfun Going to the extreme isn’t the problem, it’s doing it on the cheap. Why prop up any old building if you’re going to gut it? An old building like the Southern Pacific HQ or Matson HQ isn’t just it’s shell, it’s also its lobby and public spaces. Trashing those makes a hollow shell out of what you saved. There’s a right way and a wrong way to everything and while SF is dealing with a critical problem, it’s doing it too often the wrong way and wrecking the City in the process.
As a native-born San Franciscan myself and someone who lived through the 1989 earthquake (I was 8 years old that year), I have read and heard in the news about this "in the next 30 years" being repeated many times over the past 20 years and I doubt their accuracy. A major earthquake can happen but who can prove exactly when and how?
Pressure on tectonic plates builds over time and earthquakes are the release of that energy. They do tend to show patterns and scientists can see how cramped plates are
@@Awesumpye25 As a geologist, you can't predict when the friction will be overcome no matter how many models you run
Earth is so old humans can't really comprehend the time scale. It's like a mayfly trying to understand time in relation to humans.
Scariest part it can happen at any moment
Is this an old episode that just got uploaded?
Hope this note happens, earthquake and tsunami is really scary
A 6.9 won't likely cause a tsunami, anything above 7.5 should trigger a tsunami, so don't worry ;)
I love how they keep asking the California Earthquake Authority guy, the guy who literally makes money off of earthquake insurance, this seems like a bit of a conflict of interest
Predictive programming August 2022
how long ago was this video created? the video mentions something about 2018. is this recycled content that was just published again?
I've never been in a earthquake I live in Ohio but go every summer I've been though earthquake test and tsunami test. but I've seen videos of the 2011 earthquake in Japan and the one in California in 1989 (sorry about the bad grammar)
I live in SF in a crappy soft story building... 😬
The more prevalent threat is not in san Francisco, its in a place far more dense with skyscrapers and far more people, NYC Manhattan island. Little known fact.. Manhattan has 5 fault lines running right thru her. And earthquakes on the east coast are far more dangerous than those on the west. Obviously not to say the west has not had its fair share of nightmarish quake disasters. But the east coast has something very different due to the land, the crust of the earth being more rigid appose to that of the west coast. when a quake occurs on the east coast, that harder land transmits the force and power of the quake more intensely over far longer distances. Think of it like jumping up on down of sand appose to jumping on a plank of wood. the softer sand, dissipates the force while the harder wood plank maintains the force and strength throughout. quakes that happen in Washington dc can be felt as far away as Boston. And NYC is well overdue for a major quake.
If the Earthquake is not to far from the surface of the ground then there will be waves in the motion of the ground; if the Earthquake has a strong enough effect on the Richter scale; and the ground shakes for several minutes wouldn’t the buildings collapse; and tip over?
In other news chances of rain is growing..
Your good for 200 years or so.
you don't metion 1971 earthquake in southren california, i lived though that one high way went down hospital parts of it went down and we had so much damage the goverment paid for the repairs if i remember right that was 6.9 quake
And the northridge quake also was big also .
Here after the recent 5.1 in san jose
They'll be fine until Sacramento comes sliding into them.
But, by then no one will be living there.
At the end, it doesn't matter, even if we know it, we won't move out of danger, people love to move to places with high risk of natural disasters, we know that Florida will be underwater, we still living here and people across the country is moving to here at rate of 900 per day 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
Californias like Floridians we don't pay attention to it.
THAT VOLCANO BLOW-UP- SHOWED THAT THE EARTH IS MOVING AND ITS GONNA BE HITTING SOON!!! The leaning tower of SF is gonna plop right over when the big one hits....
It's been the greatest of cities for over 150 years and the new modern SF that will be built to replace the 18th century building will be make a great city again.
This like a movie san adreas
What about a 10.5 or 11.9 earthquake could do a city as San Francisco or New York, Norwich City UK
Anything over 10 is impossible. Large earthquakes typically happen depending on how large the fault line is (bigger the fault, bigger the earthquakes). The largest recorded was a 9.5 in 1960 in Chile. The fault line it occurred on was almost 1,000 miles long
1. quakes of 10 is nearly impossible u need a enormous fault line for that
2. if a 10 or 11 quake happen then all the volcanos including Yellowstone would come alive
3.as a new yorker if a chance of a 5 earthquake his so small y did u bring up a 10 earthquake
At least CNBC acknowledges that their SF bureau's on their own list...
the Millennium Building will be the 1st to go
And the second will be the building it falls on.
good i have watched this i was planning of moving there these past month now i have to stay here
San Francisco is overdue for one; all of those buildings old af
All of Europe:
sf housing market is like buy high sell low hahahaaa
San Fran should bring down Alaskan engineers. We have a whole mall that was built to withstand earthquakes
1:45 "Southern California"..????
It doesn’t grow it’s ever present every minute. Same applies to any city built on a flood plane.
Like Venice?
Why built office space we are all working remote 🤔
Maybe politicians will create a tax to solve this problem.
This is most likely why thatthe higest building , the Transpyramid building (which has an observation deck never opened it to the general public) and as no public building has an observation deck at all. (Some top floors do have expensive restaurants, like the Bank of America building and the St Francis Hotel. (They all may be closed by now). The only observation area is Twin Peaks with NO public transport means and no inclinator or funicular either. Even a ropeway would be nice, but the city still poo-poos the idea.
San Francisco is way too expensive for the old American building standards as we in Europe and also in Asia have much higher building and safe building standards. perhsps due to the coming of the 'Big One' no effort has been put into observation areas. the Crown Room of the Fairmont Hotel had an observayion pub and restaurant served for the general public with a clear window observation lift. That has not worked for decades, and that space is the most expensive suite in San Francisco (privatised for insatiable greed by the Fairmont Corporation).
San Francisco is essentially an expensive fire trap in California!
Oh grandpa ,pls in the next 30 years
I predict in the next 3 years!
Time to move! I already started packing!
Shame on the video editor who is guilty of committing the video atrocity of BBC (Blow-up, Blur, Crop) 4:3 aspect ratio films and video (or 4:3 films transferred to video) to fill the 16:9 frame. Doing "click to fill" may look OK on a computer screen (other than the unnaturally overly large images) but on a TV the loss of resolution is terrible. You are taking standard definition video and degrading it to substandard definition video. You are also altering/censoring the carefully composed and framed 4:3 aspect ratio images by the historical cinematographers. Leave 4:3 alone!
I was there for the 1989 earthquake and got out in 1997 to never ever go back to this hellhole which they called the Bay Area
yet here we are building skyscrapers.
wtf is that headline?
Since “ The City “ is such a toilet now ......it probably would be an improvement .
the city smells bad
At least they won't have any more worries about fixing the Millennium Tower...
San Francisco can't fix its current problems of housing and dysfunctional transit -- does ANYONE think they can pull it together to be forward thinking enough to plan for the future?
It needs it in order to have space to rebuild.
i need to understand why in the world you would build so many expensive homes in an area like this. I had 80 Acres in central CA and the last major earthqualke Our chimney left our roof and we lived in Sqauw Leap , in Hopewell junction in Calif. Why did you build on a fault.? It makes no sense to me.
I'm sorry I am no scientist but comon sense tells you that any building on a fault are vulnerable. Our planet in is in major danger. Yeah you pay all that money for a home that tomorrow your investment is gone with no help. So sad.
AT LEAST STAY PREPARED 24/7
San fransisco is a big city, and that will make alot of people die because of falling debri.
I hope I'm alive to see it.
Tech boom? Everyone is moving here to AZ not San Fran lol
San Francisco is still a growing city. Everything from Google, twitter, lyft, UA-cam and much more is still headquartered in the Bay Area lol.
You are full of crap. No one calls San Francisco 'San Fran' that knows Bay Area you fool. Realtors in any state are exaggerating.
Nevermind the structural safety of buildings, you have to worry about looting and violent criminals
Large swaying buildings and skyscrapers are not a comforting idea! Why even continue to build up so high? How L-O-N-G will it take the builders and investors to stop trying to fool Mother Nature and start getting prepared for the next BIG earthquake?!!
Thankfully, SF doesn't have many skyscrapers or towers like NY or Vancouver.
Poor heritage houses
.....and down will come down The City with techies and all...
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the above comments are fake. this is a scam
They been saying 30 years for the past 30 years. Sounds like it could happen sooner.
They were warned and didn't listen.
I’d be worried about getting stabbed or robbed
More worried about been shot or stabbed.
Whimps
Americans are weird. 1906 earthquake. Yeah let's rebuild exactly at the same place!
way to lie about the 1906 earthquake by omission. The earthquake did some damage but the gas mains ruptured and it was the fires that did a vast majority of the damage. Thanks for fear mongering.
AHHHH....IT'S ON A MAJOR FAULT LINE???
3 major faults
San Andreas, Hayward, AND Calaveras