2:00 PM CST UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma thanks to increasing confidence in significant damaging winds (gusts greater than 70 mph), particularly between 3am and 6am CST Monday morning. A few embedded tornadoes remain possible, as well.
Kinematics are nuts! Very interesting potential cold core set up. I appreciate your explanation of that, it really helps it make sense! Will be looking forward to seeing what happens from Kansas! Thanks for another great video
Northeast OK might be just out of range of the most favorable ingredients for the overnight setup, but there could be some isolated severe gusts or a spinup tornado as the remnants of the line move through tomorrow
I am quite sure with getting suggestions for videos, articles, and books to read on storms there are not enough hours in the day // however I had to suggest this, as I was not familiar with it // and this was a very wild one that hit the Pacific Northwest called the “1962 Columbus Day storm” // the damage was just incredible and how the set up occurred is even more interesting
They better have their weather radios ready for that early in the morning. It kind of resembles the early part of November with storms two mornings in a row. I am not used to any of this. I thought it was rare, but I am finding out that it's not.
I had a question about the term “dry line” / how far east is it possible for what I consider the “New Mexico-Texas-Oklahoma” dry line to move? For example, has the line ever made it to Eastern Arkansas? And also the further east in the US, would it be possible for a dry line to develop in Western Tennessee, for what they would consider a dry line and move east? Thank you for all of your information.
The dryline can travel pretty far east...often times, it'll be diluted as it moves east, or some sort of cold front/Pacific front will overtake it before it can get too far east, but there have been events in the Southeast that have featured dryline or pseudo-dryline features. For example, the infamous April 27, 2011 event had a pseudo-dryline feature that helped initiate some of the storms; it was situated over the Mississippi River region.
Still another great video /thank you // adding more rain to our record November total of 10.13 inches so far // we had almost 2 inches October 30 so it has been wild
Related topic.....re: Day 2 outlook for South LA/MS: do you think that the remnants of Hurricane Sara bringing in its moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico into the northern Gulf Coast will have any impacts on possible severe development? I see 70° dewpoints may penetrate into LA/MS just before the front rolls through late Monday; wouldn't that be enough to warrant a bit more than a Marginal Risk?
While the moisture will be extremely rich, there just won’t be a ton of forcing to allow for persistent, robust convection, as the main trough will be ejecting well off to the north of the region.
2:00 PM CST UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma thanks to increasing confidence in significant damaging winds (gusts greater than 70 mph), particularly between 3am and 6am CST Monday morning. A few embedded tornadoes remain possible, as well.
We are doubtful to get a Tornado with this storm in OKC. Likely just wind and thunderstorms.
ua-cam.com/video/XxLJZfBXPlQ/v-deo.html
Kinematics are nuts! Very interesting potential cold core set up. I appreciate your explanation of that, it really helps it make sense! Will be looking forward to seeing what happens from Kansas! Thanks for another great video
Thank you! This setup certainly isn’t lacking in the kinematic department. Some of the most impressive hodographs in quite some time!
Yay Trey!! You're the man! Thank you for another clutch discussion.
Woooow that hodograph west of DFW at 6am tomorrow is scary!
It's EXTREMELY windy here right now.
The sounding at 28:38 reminds me of ones you'd see in and around a tropical cyclone
Wow! Wasn’t expecting much with NE OK in November but here we are 😅
Northeast OK might be just out of range of the most favorable ingredients for the overnight setup, but there could be some isolated severe gusts or a spinup tornado as the remnants of the line move through tomorrow
Thanks 👍🤗
I am quite sure with getting suggestions for videos, articles, and books to read on storms there are not enough hours in the day // however I had to suggest this, as I was not familiar with it // and this was a very wild one that hit the Pacific Northwest called the “1962 Columbus Day storm” // the damage was just incredible and how the set up occurred is even more interesting
Interesting; I will check it out!
Fantastic Video
Thank you!
They better have their weather radios ready for that early in the morning. It kind of resembles the early part of November with storms two mornings in a row. I am not used to any of this. I thought it was rare, but I am finding out that it's not.
This kind of setup is not too uncommon during the secondary (fall) severe weather season
🎉🎉hope you have a great day my man
Thank you, you too!
Seen from Marcus Reynolds and Andrew Berrington comparing this setup to Feb 26, 2023, and Dec 15, 2021
Yes, those are decent analogs
I had a question about the term “dry line” / how far east is it possible for what I consider the “New Mexico-Texas-Oklahoma” dry line to move? For example, has the line ever made it to Eastern Arkansas? And also the further east in the US, would it be possible for a dry line to develop in Western Tennessee, for what they would consider a dry line and move east? Thank you for all of your information.
The dryline can travel pretty far east...often times, it'll be diluted as it moves east, or some sort of cold front/Pacific front will overtake it before it can get too far east, but there have been events in the Southeast that have featured dryline or pseudo-dryline features. For example, the infamous April 27, 2011 event had a pseudo-dryline feature that helped initiate some of the storms; it was situated over the Mississippi River region.
Still another great video /thank you // adding more rain to our record November total of 10.13 inches so far // we had almost 2 inches October 30 so it has been wild
Thank you! We should get a lot more rain with this system too; some spots in Oklahoma may see over 4-5” when all is said and done.
Related topic.....re: Day 2 outlook for South LA/MS: do you think that the remnants of Hurricane Sara bringing in its moisture fetch from the Gulf of Mexico into the northern Gulf Coast will have any impacts on possible severe development? I see 70° dewpoints may penetrate into LA/MS just before the front rolls through late Monday; wouldn't that be enough to warrant a bit more than a Marginal Risk?
While the moisture will be extremely rich, there just won’t be a ton of forcing to allow for persistent, robust convection, as the main trough will be ejecting well off to the north of the region.
Hey, Trey. Have you considered doing an in-depth? Case study on D 1998 hurricane Mitch.
It’s on my list!
@ConvectiveChronicles Okay, I am gonna do my study in the future on Hurricane Mitch and post it on UA-cam.
i feel bad, trey always uploads right before they upgrade the risk
Extreme Western AR, in the day 2 marginal. Main hazards are wind and spin up?
Correct
@@ConvectiveChroniclesalright, thanks for your amazing forecasting!
Eek! Hope Austin doesn't get any of the bad stuff.
The threat is low but I’d definitely keep an eye out
are u texas weather center aswell
That is Texas Storm Chasers’ channel, and I do work with them to do Texas-specific severe weather discussions. Today’s should be airing now over there
@ ohhhh ok got it
Have a great day and week Trey. God bless ya!!🙏
@@janledford3010 Thank you, same to you!