Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024
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- Опубліковано 6 січ 2024
- The market is unpredictable and no one can reliably predict future market returns. The Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2024 is based on a statistical analysis of historical data. This outlook covers a wide range of potential outcomes - all of which carry their own uncertainty. I've never claimed to be the smartest person in the room and much prefer to listen to the smartest people in the room when it comes to economic and market forecasts. In this video, I am going to cover what the vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024 looks like and share my opinion on how your average person could approach investing in 2024 given what we know today.
03:47 - Recap of Vanguard's economic and market outlook for 2023
06:17 - Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024
32:09 - My opinion on investing in 2024
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Thanks for watching!
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Hold up a second... could you give a little bit of an explanation to the figure at the end where they're talking about flipping your 60/40 asset allocation (You didn't really reference it from what I saw so 31:53)? Because "Probability of underperforming the benchmark" sitting at 50.8% KINDA sounds like they're saying that it's a coin-flip as to whether this happens or not. How's that supposed to square with the whole "Bonds are back!" headline they gave?
Your use of clips is just one of the great things about your channel. Cheers 🍻
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100% lol love them as well.
Thank you for your video.
Thanks for watching!
another really good video, cannot wait to see more!
Thanks for the latest Vanguard analysis. I’m not concerned about Fed T-Bills (aka, government debt) and I’m not sure Vanguard is either. The Federal government has a monopoly to create T-Bills & cash, and to set interest rates, so it doesn’t work anything like a household.
Great video as always Jake! Personally, I will be dollar cost averaging every 2 weeks for the next 10 years. Time in the market will always prosper. Happy new years and God bless
Hey!! The best way to to do it! Happy New Year!!
Appreciate you uploading frequently Jake :)
Hey!! Thank you for noticing! Regardless of what I have going on, I make it a priority to upload a video every Sunday! In fact, I have not missed a single sunday since 2019!
Excellent video Jake! A very positive financial outlook... Really enjoyed the start off video!!!
Really glad you liked it!
I cut my dividend investing budget in half this year for 2024. The other half? I’m putting it into precious metals. Gold and Silver!
I figured I’d hedge my bets moving forward. If the USD rises? I win. If the USD falls? I win. 😊
Good to diversify your assets.
@@DividendGrowthInvesting Holding physical gold and silver in your hands is one helluva an experience! I highly recommend you give it a try if you aren’t already stacking! 🤑
your channel has been blasting off recently! up thousands of subs in the past month man. Happy for you. I think you found an original way to create content!
Thank you!!!
I wanna see your portfolio grow! I hope your channel blows up!
Appreciate you saying that!
May 2024 have good dividend growth and portfolio price appreciation.
Walgreens has left the chat.
You saying that you don’t post on UA-cam for money… you sure have better insight and content than 90% of the people I listen to on her that make a boat load of money off of their videos. Keep up the good work, I love your content!
Appreciate you saying that!
This my favorite investing channel. Keep up the good work, I appreciate it.
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The best intro I had ever seen. 👏👏
lol :) 🙌🙌🙌
New to the channel, but really appreciate how much you LOVE making videos. Your joy, passion, humor and enthusiasm is such a breath of fresh air in a very stuffy space (Hedge Funds, Buffet, Larry Sommers, etc.)
Hey there!! Really appreciate you saying that! Glad you found the channel!
Time to buy more schd and dgro
Yup!!!
You're a bit younger, but the Vanguard Equity Prices chart is very accurate to what I experienced back in the early 2000s. Around then, the ability to use an online broker was new and allowed us young 30-something types to quadruple our investments in a day with all the new "internet" stocks. It all crashed and returns have been relatively flat since. Dividends and high yield savings accounts are the best path today. Stocks are mostly sunk-cost garbage.
Yeah I always try and take those average return calculations with a grain of salt. I really think the lesson is time in the market vs timing the market.
Nice breakdown, I agree we shouldn’t try to time the move that bonds are more attractive now. Dividend growth stocks will still perform IMO but we probably should take a closer look at the bond proxy’s like utilities, mlps, and reits that we have in our portfolio and just make sure we have quality of quality. Are you taking a second look at SPDW after reading that report or still just don’t like the annual divy?
I personally would stay way from simi and annual dividend funds if your goal is to live off the income. I do think the SPDW index is interesting though, espeically the low expense ratio. I own VXUS in my Roth IRA for a little international exposure, but it only makes up 10% of my Roth IRA portfolio.
I’m holding bitcoin
Great video! I would personally prefer more of these types of videos and maybe individual stocks as opposed to ETFS
Thanks for the feedback!
Couldn't resist slipping in "that's what she said" 😂
Lololol
That intro is great 😂
Thank you!
I am adding High Interest Savings Accounts ETFs in Canada 5%+ and looking into Bond ETFs for income buckets. I will be in the decumulation mode in 2025.
Best time in decades to do that! Great time to have cash.
Hi Jake. 🌊
hey there!!
Thanks for covering this.
However, I must say that a great deal of the Vanguard predictions feel more like expecting reversion to the mean in all sorts of areas, which may not be true if some of the fundamentals have also changed over time (like demographics and populations aging out.) Remember why we had such low interest rates in the first place? Because we couldn't get UP to our inflation targets, and so really loose monetary policy was in place to try to avoid deflation and get some growth. What has changed over the past few years that would change this going forward once the current inflation works its way through the system? Heck, if AI really becomes a thing then productivity could skyrocket, and we could face even stronger deflationary pressures.
Also, economic growth in international developed markets looks really weak going forward, so I would expect those regions to have really low interest rates to spur growth. US has better growth and so they may keep somewhat higher rates, and Vanguard themselves look to be predicting higher US rates then we saw the past decade. But if that happens, how will the US dollar drop so much as they expect?
For years now people have predicting small caps to finally dominate because large caps are so overvalued in comparison. But these megacap companies can get massive self-investment because of their gargantuan free cash flows, and so if rates are indeed higher they'll have a big advantage when it comes to borrowing/investing, and they may continue to grow strongly whereas the smaller companies may suffer from the higher rates. Plus they keep branching out and entering/buying up all the actual growth industries.
Anyway it just seems like Vanguard has been really wrong with these predictions over the years because they keep expecting things to revert, and they haven't been.
Yeah I was thinking in a similar direction as you. It really feels like the boy who cried wolf... One of these times its going to be real but no one will listen.
Hey Jake! Great video - at 23:00 there’s a paragraph below the one you highlighted where Vanguard makes an interesting claim: because HYSA rates will be high, people will be more likely to save instead of spend money on luxury items. They say this also means people will shy away from cryptocurrency in the next few years. What do you think about this?
Great catch! I don’t agree with that. Rates will be at historic highs kinda… but If rates go down more people will take risk and allocate money to riskier assets. But I guess time will tell.
The only Bond I trust is James Bond 😅
Lol I see what you did there 😃
What, why did I not get a notification for this video! Hello!
Weird…. Well glad you saw it!
@@DividendGrowthInvestingyou’re up to 59k subs! Nice!
I had to watch the intro again 😂🎉
Lolololol
Is the total returns “real” meaning after inflation taken out I.e. 5%+ 3%? That would make more sense
Total returns in this case is the capital appreciation + the dividend.
@@DividendGrowthInvesting pretty hard to believe unless they are thinking another 2008 situation
is guess it is time for SCHD to shine again
Yup!!
Hi
Hi!!!
This intro makes me want to watch lotr again
Best movies ever!
Do you also repair watches?!?!
lol nope
@@DividendGrowthInvesting you sound so much like the guy on the ‘wristwatch revival’ channel.
@@troyka86 lol well Ill have to check it out
@@DividendGrowthInvesting it is also very interesting to watch. Hopefully you agree and don’t think I am crazy.
We can’t be in a recession if we just change the definition.
2024 is an election year. Regardless of the economic situation, there will be a number of rate cuts. (See above).
When did people have trust in the government? 😂😂😂
lol :D
Take a second look at Bitcoin
That’s the Democrats for you. Change the rules
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