"Im still here" certanly will be nominated by best internacional picture. So, Fernanda Torres is the favorite for the best five actress. After her golden globe to best actress in drama movie.
@@samsimple31 well atm I’d say Demi Moore has the best chance- just cause she also has the golden globe win and the substance is likely to get more nominations than I’m still here. But yeah I can still see Torres making it in - it was very difficult to just pick 5 out of an amazing 14 contenders. X
I myself am an Editor. And basically 10 minutes into "The Substance", I turned to my boyfriend with the words "The editing is AMAZING!" He's a Writer and he was like "The writing is PHENOMENAL!" Plus, he has a crush on Demi since forever. Needless to say, we have a clear winner in our household. "The Substance" is the best film I have seen since "Parasite".
@@nikitaaverin yay!! I really really really hope the substance gets the editing nom. It is so incredibly stitched together. And I agree with you with what you said about parasite - one of the best movies or recent times. You think Demi might be able to win in Best Actress now? X
@ I am also crossing my fingers for Margaret Qualley. Directing, Movie, Costume Design, Sound(!), Production Design, Music. And of course Make-Up. This movie blew me off my socks.
Anora is my personal choice for editing it was so seamlessly smooth and interesting without feeling flashy. But the Substance is a banger as well
15 днів тому
FERNANDA TORRE IS THE BEST ACTRESS.
15 днів тому+3
FERNANDA TORRES DESERVES TO WIN THE OSCAR!!! FERNANDA'S PERFORMANCE IS THE BEST!!!!!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
@@janechoy2073 sometimes long shots do happen and given that Jamie Lee Curtis has a good chance of getting in for BSA - it would almost be a bit odd if Curtis got in without Anderson (when it’s Anderson’s movie). X
I really believe in Fernanda Torres' nomination, mainly because she has been standing out a lot in the press, besides the fact that the film is wonderful and really deserves these nominations❤
I think the substance is kinda undeniable at this point, not that there’s voter overlap, but when has a film gotten screenplay, director and picture at the globes and not gotten a best picture nomination? I do think the thing that’ll keep us on the edge on of our seats is *how* well it performs. I stand by the fact that if the movie’s in picture, it’s exactly the type of film that gets director, but is it getting supporting actress and editing? I honestly hope it gets editing, it’s so incredible and honestly win worthy, ( sound would have been too, but we know how that played out)
I don’t think you need to worry about The Substance showing up in BP. I would actually place it above Dune: Part Two in terms of strength. For whatever reason, The Substance isn’t being considered a big tech player, so it not showing up in most of the shortlists isn’t all that surprising or concerning. It’s a near lock for director, screenplay, makeup, and actress, with small potential for supporting actress and editing, whereas Dune will be lucky to get into adapted screenplay in above the line recognition.
@@rileyniedermann yeah it’s got everything working in its favour. I’m still gonna be holding my breath that it shows up in pictures, actress, sup A tress, editing and director. It also deserves production design and costumes in my opinion. Screenplay and makeup feel guaranteed now.
My Coralie Fargeat is 100% Angelina Jolie in Maria. Her performance gave me chills! Like you, when I first watched it, I had a gut feeling she'd be an awards darling this season, and I'm shocked to see how things have turned out!
@@jeffbassin630 that would be one of the best best actress wins of all time and I hope the acamdey would be cool enough to do it. Having said that, if mikey madison ends up winning - I won’t be upset at all. It’s a deserved win x
Has there ever been a time where the GG winner for Best Actress in a Drama, ended up getting snubbed of an Oscar nomination? It’s practically unheard of! Statistically, the GG winner is most likely to get the Oscar nomination, even if their film is not very competitive. (Ex. Andra Day in “The People vs Billie Holliday” and Isabelle Hubert in “Elle”.
@ excellent argument. I think it’s just an exceptionally tough year for best actress and while statistically you’re correct and she’s probably more likely to get in than say Jolie, sometimes you had to go with what your gut is saying- so that’s what I’m doing with the 5th spot. Stats are safer but not always reliable. X
@@LukeHearfield I'm trying to figure out a scenario that gets Anderson in there. I do think there is something to the idea that a few voters might think they will vote for Erico next year. Sadly, I also think there's been enough push back on Emilia Perez that may matter in such a tight race
I've been saying the same thing about Angelina following the same path as Kristen Stewart. But Kristen and Spencer made the BAFTA longlist, which Angelina and Maria didn't. Now, they put 15 actresses on the longlist in 2022 and only 10 this year, so it's hard to say how meaningful that is. But I have Fernanda in my 5th slot, and I only have Maria getting in for Cinematography (& even that seems a risk!).
@@ImmortalBroken yeah predicting Maria for any Oscar noms is a risk at this point but sometimes you have to take a risk. Glad we see eye to eye on cinematography- even if we’re not 100 correct. X
I would certainly keep an eye on SEPTEMBER 5, as I have a feeling about this film in particular pulling off some surprises. Also, it is worth noting that we have had at least one surprise acting nominee that no one really sees coming, and is usually someone who wasn’t nominated at any major precursor or only got Critics Choice (America Ferrara, Andrea Riseborough, Judi Dench (BELFAST), Lakeith Stanfield, Judd Hirsch are recent examples).
@@georgialerangis2123 are those your wish picks too? 😁 I’m quite confident about Demi but Coralie is the one I’m most nervous for. I will be holding my breath when they announce the noms on Thursday x
@@LukeHearfieldLet’s keep PRAYING for them both❤Love me some Pamela Anderson too❤very interesting analysis there on the help that her co-star JLC might provide❤
I had Felicity Jones in supporting actress but since I read that some voting members could not finish The Brutalist, decided to put Monica Barbaro and yes it's embarrasing that anyone that votes could not make time to watch a film.
I have to say as a trans woman there isn't a problematic part of the film Emilia Pérez that I can think of, maybe Mexicans have a problem with the film, but the trans "identity" is not a monolith, many of us relate to this movie and found it to be very relatable, and found a lot of meaning behind this film, from not wanting to lose your family because your past, to wanting to make good on your past mistakes, and having that all wrap into (compliated-wise) into your identity and current life. Perhaps because Gascón had such a huge part in the creation of the character and storytelling in this film many of us feel staunch in our support behind it.
1:09:10. It's very common for the academy to give the visual effects Oscar nominations to best picture nominees. There's at least two best picture nominees in there. Since wicket is being nominated for best picture, I can see if being made of visual effects and possibly win. When it used actual practical stunts, practical sets that were built over the course of 20 years, real stunt choreography done by the actors themselves and very minimal CGI. Just like Dune, they blended the effects in with the story rather than show them off immensely. I can actually see it winning over Dune since June. Part 2 is a sequel and the original already won the Oscar for visual effects among the five others.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 I wasn’t saying best picture contenders can’t get in but I was just saying that vfx is a category like costumes where they often favour films that’s aren’t necessarily best picture contenders x
@ respectfully, dune part 1 lost to Cruella that year for costumes. But it’s cool. I’m not saying best picture films can’t be nominated or even win in costumes or vfx- all I’m saying is the academy doesn’t feel the need to give every slot to a film that’s contesting for best picture. They often acknowledge other films that’s wouldn’t be nominated like; Mrs Harris goes to Paris, Emma,Cyrano, etc hope that makes sense. Thanks for watching anyway and leaving your thoughts. X
I went rogue with my last spots in Actress (Pamela Anderson), Supporting Actress (JLC) and Supporting Actor (Jonathan Bailey)... Don't know what's really come over me with predicting Jonathan, ever since he got that SAG nom I've believed he has a chance. I think we'll get A LOT of surprises this year though!
My Best Film Top 10 are: 1. Anora 2. The Brutalist 3. Emilia Perez 4. Conclave 5. A Complete Unknown 6. Wicked 7. Dune: Part Two 8. The Substance 9. A Real Pain 10. Nosferatu I went with Nosferatu at 10 because I couldn’t come to a decision… But I do think it will do very well in Tech & Below the line categories (Cinematography, Score, Production, Costume, Hair & Makeup), so it might have a chance.
@@Cameronofdune if Nosferatu shows up in best picture I would be elated! 😁 but at this point I would be so happy with one horror film in th lineup: the substance x
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE: The Brutalist Anora Conclave Emilia Perez A Complete Unknown Wicked The Substance Sing Sing Nickel Boys Challengers BEST DIRECTOR: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist Sean Baker - Anora Coralie Fargeat - The Substance RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys Luca Guadagnino - Challengers & Queer LEAD ACTRESS: Demi Moore - The Substance Mikey Madison - Anora Cynthia Erivo - Wicked Pamela Anderson - The Last Showgirl Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths LEAD ACTOR: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown Ralph Fiennes - Conclave Colman Domingo - Sing Sing Hugh Grant - Heretic SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana Grande - Wicked Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez Isabella Rossellini - Conclave Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl Felicity Jones - The Brutalist SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain Yura Borisov - Anora Guy Pierce - The Brutalist Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown Stanley Tucci - Conclave ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anora The Brutalist A Real Pain The Substance Challengers ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave Emilia Perez A Complete Unknown Sing Sing Nickel Boys ANIMATED FEATURE: Flow The Wild Robot Inside Out 2 Memoir of a Snail Wallace & Grommit: Vengeance Most Fowl CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist Dune: Part Two Better Man Conclave Nickel Boys EDITING: Challengers Wicked Dune: Part Two The Brutalist Anora SCORE: Challengers The Brutalist Conclave Emilia Perez Wicked SONG: "El Mal" - Emilia Perez "Never Too Late" - Elton John: Never Too Late "Compress/Repress" - Challengers "Harper and Will Go West" - Will & Harper "Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot
I'm excited to point out that James Cameron didn't win for Directing Titanic in 1997 (the year the movie came out) he won in 1998, so not so long ago after all. It would be interesting to have five first-time nominees this time. But I wonder how long it will be before we have the first all-female director five. Bigelow, Campion, Coppola, Gerwig, Zhao, Fennell and Triet spring to mind as previous nominees but there seem to be lots of great upcoming voices, and one year maybe the stars will align for five of them.
In regards to the Critics Choice Awards, Mikey Madison has the most wins in Best Actress with 27, Colman Domingo has the most in Best Actor with 22, and Margaret Qualley has slightly more wins in Best Supporting Actress with 13 while Zoe Saldaña has 12. Does that mean those three could win at the upcoming ceremony?
I have mixed feelings, because I find Karla’s performance so weak that I’d wish to see her snubbed in favor of Marianne or Angelina (assuming my fave Fernanda will take that 5th spot). I truly don’t think both Cynthia and Karla should made it, it’s one or the other
@@pedroaugustopinheiro it very well could be that one of them stumbles as the last hurdle but it’s just hard to argue with the fact they’ve placed at all the big precursors. I’m still predicting Jolie gets in but I don’t feel confident about it x
Dovecote is pretty bad, but not the worst prediction. The whole thing is shot as if it were one long take, so I can see some members of the Academy being impressed. A Lien is very much something the Academy would nominate, about a hot topic American subject (American shorts often do well so I expect at least one to make it).
Almost half of the nominated shorts are available online. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent definitely should be nominated, as should A Lien (=Alien), not just because it's about ICE arresting people when they come to apply for a green card, but because it's really well done.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva I wished I had more time before the noms announcement to watch the shorts. once I get back to London I will seek them out but sadly I simply didn’t have the time in the short space of time I had at home between coming back from Australia and leaving for Switzerland to watch them all. Wish I could’ve been more helpful with the shorts this year. X
I've now watched all of those I could find. I also absolutely recommend Incident, a 30 minute documentary about a police shooting of a black man (that happens a lot in the US). It really stands out from the others, I like the format (no score, no voiceovers, everything is footage from security and body cameras, very well edited to give you a chronological look at what happened, and the only commentary is the text giving you facts on screen. And it's very powerful. Out of the live shorts, aside from the two I mentioned, I also liked I'm Not a Robot -(which is like an really good episode of Black Mirror but half the length), and The Last Ranger. All of these can be watched online for free.
I wonder if Edward Berger could be snubbed from best director because they snubbed him for all quiet on the Western front. It's safe to say even if he is a great director, his directing would not be Academy friendly.
My best picture ten 1. Anora 2. The brutalist 3. A complete unknown 4. Conclave 5. Dune 2 6. Emilia Perez 7. Sing sing 8. Nickel boys 9. The substance 10. A real pain or queer Director 1. Sean baker 2. Coralline fargain 3. Brady corbet 4. Edward burger 5. Jacque ardeard Actor lead 1. Brody 2. Timmy 3. Coleman 4. Daniel Craig 5. Ralph Lead actress 1. Demi 2. Mikey 3. Erivo 4. Pamela 5. Karla Supporting actor 1. Kieran 2. Guy 3. Clarence Divine eye 4. Edward 5. Yura Supporting actress 1. Ariana grande 2. Zoe Saldana 3. Selena Gomez 4. Margaret qualley 5. Anjenue Ellis
If "Magalopolis" does not receive a nomination for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Cinematography I will not be watching the Oscars this year. It was easily the best movie I've seen in the past 10 years. It was way better than all these others.
@@tonyg76 do you mean for the bets picture win? Weirdly I could see it pulling off a win even though it’s not a anything substantial yet, it’s the type of film you can see placing well on a preferential ballot. I still think I’m leaning more towards Anora but it’s a very open race.
The disrespect to Jacques Audiard has gone too far. 😂 He's one of the greatest filmmakers alive and arguably the most transcendent one of those who are chasing this year's nominations.
Despite people's misgivings, I still have faith that Ariana Grande can pull off the win for the best supporting actress Oscar. This is just my own personal opinion, but just because Zoe Saldana is the veteran actress and has paid her dues it doesn't guarantee her the win. Considering the backlash that Emilia Perez has been getting lately with how the director has chosen to portray the Hispanic/Mexican culture and its depiction of the LGBTQ community with the trans character, that might diminish her chances in winning. For example, actresses like Glenn Close, Amy Adams, and Michelle Williams have paid their dues, have been nominated for how many Oscars and they have never won. A recent example of this, is Glenn Close. Everyone was predicting her to win the Oscar in 2019 for her role in The Wife and the Oscar went to Olivia Coleman for The Favorite who wasn't that well known in the American film industry. Glenn Close at least is well known internationally. Emilia Perez was NOT a good film and personally I don't understand people's fascination with it. It truly is a racist film with all due respect to people who are rooting for it to win and that includes Zoe Saldana as much as I love her as an actress. When the interviewer was asking the director I don't know if it was recently, that what research did he have to do for the film, he stated that he didn't have to do much research. That shows his lack of empathy and ignorance towards the culture and the LGBTQ community. If you are going to do a movie that is going to portray the Hispanic/Mexican culture and the LGBTQ community, one has to do their thorough amount of research on the culture while at the same time being sensitive in how you are going to choose to portray the trans character. By the director just giving that statement only hurts its chances of winning and that includes in the supporting actress category. This may sound harsh, but I hope it goes home empty handed. Yes, I understand that Ariana Grande is a new comer and she's competing against a veteran and I think its bullshit that people want to hold that against her, in her not winning. You just have to look at the performance. For better or for worse, for the time being Zoe Saldana is the frontrunner to win the Oscar but I hope not. Let's hope and pray that Ariana Grande can overcome the backlash that she getting is in the meantime working against her that she's a newcomer and win this well deserved Oscar for playing Glinda the Good Witch. 🤞🤞🤞💖💚💖💚💖
The academy says they're opting for feel-good and fun film to win best picture. Even a real pain doesn't fit this criteria since it deals with incredibly dark themes and is also a drama. Despite also being a drama, Wicked is also a musical comedy that feels like the safest of these options and made everyone feel so happy despite the tough times of the LA fires. After winning SAG Ensemble, Wicked will feel like the more obvious choice to win this picture because it's the ultimate feel-good film of the year. That's also the ultimate surprise of the year that over exceeded and blew away everyone's expectations. I can see Wicked actually winning best picture simply because it's doing with these other genre, films and other IP films. Aren't, it's acting like an actual Oscar film. On top of that, older Academy members will have it as number one on a preferential ballot because they've known in loved the show for years and years. On top of that, they might just nominate the director for an Oscar as well, considering how the feel-good film of the year doesn't even have a director nomination. They might swap out Mangold for Chu Because his film was better received with sag and is predicted to win Ensemble. Not only is it predicted to, it was always expected to. It might be the best option to win best picture anyway, since all the other films have something lurking against them. Every film is either too long, too boring or too controversial. Wicked will be the perfect option to win best picture and the sequel will do the same. It's not what the academy usually goes for, I totally get them. However, it will be a nice change of pace considering the tragedy that has gone on in the world and how people need an escape from that. This film provided the perfect escape from all on that and made people cry and made people cry. Happy tears so that they can enjoy it over and over again. A best picture winner refers to a filming that one could watch over and over again, this film will be remembered for forever and will be the perfect option to win the Oscars. It really is the feel-good film that voters will gravitate towards because it's the safest and least problematic option.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 excellent analysis. There’s a very plausible argument that if Wicked wins SAG ensemble that it goes the distance and wins best picture - especially in a year as wide open as this one. X
@LukeHearfield Thanks. The tragedy of the fires put people in polarizing positions. Wicked could go all the way. It will definitely surprise in the next few weeks.
U r useless bc ur review of A Complete Unknown was stupid, careless & insulting to the movie cast & crew Try to redeem yourself. Rewatch & research ur subject
Respectfully, in my opinion, I understand the backlash on it. Whether it’s “deserved” or not, that’s debatable. I personally did not care for the film at all. Being a fan of the art of cinema though, I always respect what a filmmaker is trying to do, even if there’s instances where I don’t care for the film. I think it’s hard for people to not give respect for what they’re TRYING to do, and they instead just immediately s*** on it and disregard it. For me, the film didn’t particularly land. The best part for me was Zoe Saldana’s number El Mal. I found the rest boring and unnecessary. I know some complaints have also been the accents and depiction of Mexico. I can’t speak to those though, because I am not Hispanic. The sex change operation number also received a decent amount of hate. Personally, I thought it was a bit too tacky. If you liked the film though, that’s ok! I agree that the hate has been a bit extreme. People can dislike the film I think, but they don’t need to trash and hate on it. Respect the work the artists put in at least!
I did not like “Emilia Perez”. The script lacked a major plot and the characters feel very one-dimensional, unlikeable, and their diversity being the most important character defining trait. I also did not like the director’s filmmaking style and overall the creative choices he made. Turning the movie into a musical only made the story worser to follow and the musical numbers (especially the penis to vagina song during the sex change operation) are really bad and cringey that took me out of the movie! It was the direction that really turned me off to the movie because I can feel the director’s smugness and that the movie was trying to make a profound socially conscious message about the trans community to the audience. But in reality, that message did not translate very well with the audience and especially the trans community, who found the movie to be offensive to them.
This movie is terrible imo. Emilia Perez is one of the most selfish characters I've ever seen in movie history. Then pushing her off on us as a 'hero' is just gross. If she was portrayed as the villain she really is, the movie would have been better. I'd give the movie 1.5/10. The opening music number was excellent and Zoe was good in the movie. The rest was trash.
@@ikanghelpmyself0912I think the hate is necessary when it comes to open the eyes of the academy voters. As Hispanic I think is a full disrespect the director’s lack of study around the country he’s representing as an internacional feature. The amount of stereotyped plots and scnearios is so big that just confirms the fail of the internalization attempt and the hypocritical progressiveness of Hollywood critics' taste.
"Im still here" certanly will be nominated by best internacional picture. So, Fernanda Torres is the favorite for the best five actress. After her golden globe to best actress in drama movie.
@@samsimple31 well atm I’d say Demi Moore has the best chance- just cause she also has the golden globe win and the substance is likely to get more nominations than I’m still here. But yeah I can still see Torres making it in - it was very difficult to just pick 5 out of an amazing 14 contenders. X
Fernanda Torres is playing a real life person. I hope she will be nominated.
Fernanda Torres ❤❤❤
Love seeing all the love for Fernanda Torres ❤ be cool to see her finally get her first Oscar nom. X
I hope she won't win! It's not the best movie, anyway!
In an ideal world Dune Part II would get 13 nominations including best director and best supporting actress for Rebecca Ferguson
I myself am an Editor. And basically 10 minutes into "The Substance", I turned to my boyfriend with the words "The editing is AMAZING!"
He's a Writer and he was like "The writing is PHENOMENAL!"
Plus, he has a crush on Demi since forever. Needless to say, we have a clear winner in our household. "The Substance" is the best film I have seen since "Parasite".
@@nikitaaverin yay!! I really really really hope the substance gets the editing nom. It is so incredibly stitched together. And I agree with you with what you said about parasite - one of the best movies or recent times.
You think Demi might be able to win in Best Actress now? X
@ I am also crossing my fingers for Margaret Qualley.
Directing, Movie, Costume Design, Sound(!), Production Design, Music. And of course Make-Up.
This movie blew me off my socks.
@ And yes. I think that Demi has it in her bag.
Anora is my personal choice for editing it was so seamlessly smooth and interesting without feeling flashy. But the Substance is a banger as well
FERNANDA TORRE IS THE BEST ACTRESS.
FERNANDA TORRES DESERVES TO WIN THE OSCAR!!! FERNANDA'S PERFORMANCE IS THE BEST!!!!!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Long shot, but I really REALLY REALLY want Pam Anderson. I honestly believe that she's more deserving than Karla Sofia Garscon.
@@janechoy2073 sometimes long shots do happen and given that Jamie Lee Curtis has a good chance of getting in for BSA - it would almost be a bit odd if Curtis got in without Anderson (when it’s Anderson’s movie). X
I really believe in Fernanda Torres' nomination, mainly because she has been standing out a lot in the press, besides the fact that the film is wonderful and really deserves these nominations❤
I think the substance is kinda undeniable at this point, not that there’s voter overlap, but when has a film gotten screenplay, director and picture at the globes and not gotten a best picture nomination? I do think the thing that’ll keep us on the edge on of our seats is *how* well it performs. I stand by the fact that if the movie’s in picture, it’s exactly the type of film that gets director, but is it getting supporting actress and editing? I honestly hope it gets editing, it’s so incredible and honestly win worthy, ( sound would have been too, but we know how that played out)
@@kashoot4782 I agree, it deserves the win for editing but I’ll be happy if it simply gets the nom. It’s
I don’t think you need to worry about The Substance showing up in BP. I would actually place it above Dune: Part Two in terms of strength. For whatever reason, The Substance isn’t being considered a big tech player, so it not showing up in most of the shortlists isn’t all that surprising or concerning. It’s a near lock for director, screenplay, makeup, and actress, with small potential for supporting actress and editing, whereas Dune will be lucky to get into adapted screenplay in above the line recognition.
@@rileyniedermann yeah it’s got everything working in its favour. I’m still gonna be holding my breath that it shows up in pictures, actress, sup A tress, editing and director. It also deserves production design and costumes in my opinion. Screenplay and makeup feel guaranteed now.
Even though Stanley Tucci has not been campaigning, I could see him sneaking in if Conclave over performs
My Coralie Fargeat is 100% Angelina Jolie in Maria. Her performance gave me chills! Like you, when I first watched it, I had a gut feeling she'd be an awards darling this season, and I'm shocked to see how things have turned out!
I believe that Demi Moore will win the best actress Oscar for her outstanding performance in "The Substance."
@@jeffbassin630 that would be one of the best best actress wins of all time and I hope the acamdey would be cool enough to do it. Having said that, if mikey madison ends up winning - I won’t be upset at all. It’s a deserved win x
Fernanda Torres ❤
@@viniciusmarques2288 if she surprises I won’t be all that surprised. That golden globe win is substantial x
Has there ever been a time where the GG winner for Best Actress in a Drama, ended up getting snubbed of an Oscar nomination? It’s practically unheard of! Statistically, the GG winner is most likely to get the Oscar nomination, even if their film is not very competitive. (Ex. Andra Day in “The People vs Billie Holliday” and Isabelle Hubert in “Elle”.
@ excellent argument. I think it’s just an exceptionally tough year for best actress and while statistically you’re correct and she’s probably more likely to get in than say Jolie, sometimes you had to go with what your gut is saying- so that’s what I’m doing with the 5th spot. Stats are safer but not always reliable. X
Excellent point Luke. I admit, it’s a really competitive and unpredictable year for Best Actress and stats are always broken!
I hope Fernanda Torres and Marianne Jean-Baptiste take the 4th and 5th spot nominations.
@@user-CatherineDodd who would you bump out for those 2? Erivo? gascon? Jolie?
@@LukeHearfieldGascon. She and Zoe should trade categories.
@@LukeHearfield I would bump out Gascon but I know that won't happen. LOL.
@@LukeHearfield Gascon. She is Not a lead.
@@TonyRocha-gp3cv how do you figure that? 😄The title kind of implies she’s a central character.
My top 5 are 1. The Brutalist 2. Conclave 3.Anora 4. A Complete Unknown 5. Wicked
@@lennysadofsky7956 solid picks
You are my favorite youtube oscar pundit! Your analysis are so well thought out,
My five for best actress Madison, Moore, Jean Baptiste, Torres, Erivo
@@joeymac2 would be an incredible lineup if that was our 5. I think the 2 everyone agrees on is Moore and Madison. X
@@LukeHearfield I'm trying to figure out a scenario that gets Anderson in there. I do think there is something to the idea that a few voters might think they will vote for Erico next year. Sadly, I also think there's been enough push back on Emilia Perez that may matter in such a tight race
@@LukeHearfield also the fires may have given that extra little bit of time for an Anderson narrative to build
FERNANDA TORRES IS THE BEST ACTRESS. IF THERE IS JUSTICE, FERNANDA TORRES WILL WIN THE OSCAR.
Best director being first time nominees will. Be insane
@@gabrielcastaneda9700will be like the 2023 best actor lineup when it was all first timers - only every more impressive (if it happens of course) x
@@gabrielcastaneda9700 last year we almost had a best actress 5 that were all in best picture but then Annette benning showed up for Nyad hahahaha
@@LukeHearfield I could see the academy surprise with seed of the sacred fig as a we support you to the director
@@LukeHearfieldEmma Stone was on her 4th that year as well
I've been saying the same thing about Angelina following the same path as Kristen Stewart. But Kristen and Spencer made the BAFTA longlist, which Angelina and Maria didn't. Now, they put 15 actresses on the longlist in 2022 and only 10 this year, so it's hard to say how meaningful that is. But I have Fernanda in my 5th slot, and I only have Maria getting in for Cinematography (& even that seems a risk!).
Our Cinematography five are the same! ❤
@@ImmortalBroken yeah predicting Maria for any Oscar noms is a risk at this point but sometimes you have to take a risk.
Glad we see eye to eye on cinematography- even if we’re not 100 correct. X
I would certainly keep an eye on SEPTEMBER 5, as I have a feeling about this film in particular pulling off some surprises. Also, it is worth noting that we have had at least one surprise acting nominee that no one really sees coming, and is usually someone who wasn’t nominated at any major precursor or only got Critics Choice (America Ferrara, Andrea Riseborough, Judi Dench (BELFAST), Lakeith Stanfield, Judd Hirsch are recent examples).
@@axr7149 excellent examples of surprise nominees in the acting categories. I can’t wait to see who the random surprise ends up being this year. X
@ Maybe John Magano or Peter Sarsgaard for instance?
@ either of those would be a huge reveal moment. Massive respect to anybody that’s predicting either of them x
Rooting for Coralie, Demi and Margaret ✨🕯️🧪
I am rooting for Coralie Fargeat AND DEMI too!❤
@@georgialerangis2123 are those your wish picks too? 😁 I’m quite confident about Demi but Coralie is the one I’m most nervous for. I will be holding my breath when they announce the noms on Thursday x
@@LukeHearfieldLet’s keep PRAYING for them both❤Love me some Pamela Anderson too❤very interesting analysis there on the help that her co-star JLC might provide❤
@ hopefully it made sense and might help some viewers make a decision on BSA. 😁
FERNANDA TORRES' PERFORMANCE IS THE BEST, INDISCUTIBLE!
Both Angelina and Fernanda Torres are playing women who have already existed.
I just saw “The last showgirls” and WOW!! Pam Anderson needs to be nominated definitely! She’s amazing!
My fifth spot nominees are:
Sebastian Stan, Fernanda Torres, and Jamie Lee Curtiss 😬 ... the former being my Coralie pick.
I had Felicity Jones in supporting actress but since I read that some voting members could not finish The Brutalist, decided to put Monica Barbaro and yes it's embarrasing that anyone that votes could not make time to watch a film.
I have to say as a trans woman there isn't a problematic part of the film Emilia Pérez that I can think of, maybe Mexicans have a problem with the film, but the trans "identity" is not a monolith, many of us relate to this movie and found it to be very relatable, and found a lot of meaning behind this film, from not wanting to lose your family because your past, to wanting to make good on your past mistakes, and having that all wrap into (compliated-wise) into your identity and current life. Perhaps because Gascón had such a huge part in the creation of the character and storytelling in this film many of us feel staunch in our support behind it.
1:09:10. It's very common for the academy to give the visual effects Oscar nominations to best picture nominees. There's at least two best picture nominees in there. Since wicket is being nominated for best picture, I can see if being made of visual effects and possibly win. When it used actual practical stunts, practical sets that were built over the course of 20 years, real stunt choreography done by the actors themselves and very minimal CGI. Just like Dune, they blended the effects in with the story rather than show them off immensely. I can actually see it winning over Dune since June. Part 2 is a sequel and the original already won the Oscar for visual effects among the five others.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 I wasn’t saying best picture contenders can’t get in but I was just saying that vfx is a category like costumes where they often favour films that’s aren’t necessarily best picture contenders x
@LukeHearfield It's fascinating that you said that. Dune was also nominated for costume design. I believe it won.
@ respectfully, dune part 1 lost to Cruella that year for costumes. But it’s cool. I’m not saying best picture films can’t be nominated or even win in costumes or vfx- all I’m saying is the academy doesn’t feel the need to give every slot to a film that’s contesting for best picture. They often acknowledge other films that’s wouldn’t be nominated like; Mrs Harris goes to Paris, Emma,Cyrano, etc hope that makes sense. Thanks for watching anyway and leaving your thoughts. X
Watch the lead of all we imagine as light slide into actress if the director and movie make it in
Any movie that reminds the audiences of another film should not be qualified for award nominations. Yes, I am talking about Anora.
Challengers had better get best score nom.
I went rogue with my last spots in Actress (Pamela Anderson), Supporting Actress (JLC) and Supporting Actor (Jonathan Bailey)... Don't know what's really come over me with predicting Jonathan, ever since he got that SAG nom I've believed he has a chance. I think we'll get A LOT of surprises this year though!
I really hope Jonathan Bailey will be nominated 🙏
New Category: Best Stunt Work - Dune Part II
We love Fernanda Torres ❤
I’m still here ‼️‼️
Fernanda Torres best actress ‼️‼️
Ele colocar The Girl with the Needle e depois ficar na dúvida se coloca Ainda Estou Aqui é LOUCURA!
Ent. Emilia Perez, Ainda estou aqui e The seed of the sagre fig são basicamente certos de aparecerem
My Best Film Top 10 are:
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Emilia Perez
4. Conclave
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Substance
9. A Real Pain
10. Nosferatu
I went with Nosferatu at 10 because I couldn’t come to a decision… But I do think it will do very well in Tech & Below the line categories (Cinematography, Score, Production, Costume, Hair & Makeup), so it might have a chance.
@@Cameronofdune if Nosferatu shows up in best picture I would be elated! 😁 but at this point I would be so happy with one horror film in th lineup: the substance x
Felicity Jones did not miss at BAFTA - she was nominated there. :)
@@bn5271 yep my bad. Was getting her confused with Qualley
And Isabella Rossellini was also nominated by BAFTA!!!
Such a huge list! Well done, loved the “popular” moment hehe
@@nelg54 had to be done 😁✨🩷 thanks for watching. You got any hot takes or predictions you’re dying to see happen?
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
The Brutalist
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Wicked
The Substance
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Challengers
BEST DIRECTOR:
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Sean Baker - Anora
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys
Luca Guadagnino - Challengers & Queer
LEAD ACTRESS:
Demi Moore - The Substance
Mikey Madison - Anora
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Pamela Anderson - The Last Showgirl
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
LEAD ACTOR:
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Hugh Grant - Heretic
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Yura Borisov - Anora
Guy Pierce - The Brutalist
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Stanley Tucci - Conclave
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
Challengers
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Flow
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Grommit: Vengeance Most Fowl
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Better Man
Conclave
Nickel Boys
EDITING:
Challengers
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Anora
SCORE:
Challengers
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
SONG:
"El Mal" - Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late" - Elton John: Never Too Late
"Compress/Repress" - Challengers
"Harper and Will Go West" - Will & Harper
"Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot
I'm excited to point out that James Cameron didn't win for Directing Titanic in 1997 (the year the movie came out) he won in 1998, so not so long ago after all. It would be interesting to have five first-time nominees this time. But I wonder how long it will be before we have the first all-female director five. Bigelow, Campion, Coppola, Gerwig, Zhao, Fennell and Triet spring to mind as previous nominees but there seem to be lots of great upcoming voices, and one year maybe the stars will align for five of them.
In regards to the Critics Choice Awards, Mikey Madison has the most wins in Best Actress with 27, Colman Domingo has the most in Best Actor with 22, and Margaret Qualley has slightly more wins in Best Supporting Actress with 13 while Zoe Saldaña has 12. Does that mean those three could win at the upcoming ceremony?
If Jamie lee Curtis gets in, she will most likely drag Pamela Anderson along with her to the Oscars ❤️
I have mixed feelings, because I find Karla’s performance so weak that I’d wish to see her snubbed in favor of Marianne or Angelina (assuming my fave Fernanda will take that 5th spot).
I truly don’t think both Cynthia and Karla should made it, it’s one or the other
@@pedroaugustopinheiro it very well could be that one of them stumbles as the last hurdle but it’s just hard to argue with the fact they’ve placed at all the big precursors. I’m still predicting Jolie gets in but I don’t feel confident about it x
You should add the timecodes in the description before the text first, so it automatically breaks the video in chapters.
Dovecote is pretty bad, but not the worst prediction. The whole thing is shot as if it were one long take, so I can see some members of the Academy being impressed. A Lien is very much something the Academy would nominate, about a hot topic American subject (American shorts often do well so I expect at least one to make it).
The one nomination I’m praying for is for Best Original Song- Twisters , “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson
Almost half of the nominated shorts are available online.
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent definitely should be nominated, as should A Lien (=Alien), not just because it's about ICE arresting people when they come to apply for a green card, but because it's really well done.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva I wished I had more time before the noms announcement to watch the shorts. once I get back to London I will seek them out but sadly I simply didn’t have the time in the short space of time I had at home between coming back from Australia and leaving for Switzerland to watch them all. Wish I could’ve been more helpful with the shorts this year. X
But also thanks for the shorts recommendations. 😄 I will defo seek out A Lien and TMWCNRS. X
I've now watched all of those I could find.
I also absolutely recommend Incident, a 30 minute documentary about a police shooting of a black man (that happens a lot in the US). It really stands out from the others, I like the format (no score, no voiceovers, everything is footage from security and body cameras, very well edited to give you a chronological look at what happened, and the only commentary is the text giving you facts on screen. And it's very powerful.
Out of the live shorts, aside from the two I mentioned, I also liked I'm Not a Robot -(which is like an really good episode of Black Mirror but half the length), and The Last Ranger.
All of these can be watched online for free.
Isabella Rossellini got nominated at the Baftas. The only place she missed were at the SAG awards.
"Wojtek" is read "voyteck" :)
Felicity Jones did get nominated at BAFTA.
Sorry my mistake, I think I might’ve been thinking of Margret Qualley 🤪
I put Angelina Jolie in my predictions - I hope we’re right. I love Maria.
@@keth77 it’s by no means a safe prediction but to me it always seemed like a logical one. It’s a no guts no glory pick x
Im curious to see the Cesar’s cuz you have the substance vs Emilia Perez
Marianne JeaN Baptiste
...being a musical does not negate being a serious film....😤😮💨
Unfortunately “Emilia Perez” did a huge disservice to try to change people’s minds about musicals!
I wonder if Edward Berger could be snubbed from best director because they snubbed him for all quiet on the Western front. It's safe to say even if he is a great director, his directing would not be Academy friendly.
Or maybe he gets in this time precisely because he was snubbed last time 🙃
My best picture ten
1. Anora
2. The brutalist
3. A complete unknown
4. Conclave
5. Dune 2
6. Emilia Perez
7. Sing sing
8. Nickel boys
9. The substance
10. A real pain or queer
Director
1. Sean baker
2. Coralline fargain
3. Brady corbet
4. Edward burger
5. Jacque ardeard
Actor lead
1. Brody
2. Timmy
3. Coleman
4. Daniel Craig
5. Ralph
Lead actress
1. Demi
2. Mikey
3. Erivo
4. Pamela
5. Karla
Supporting actor
1. Kieran
2. Guy
3. Clarence Divine eye
4. Edward
5. Yura
Supporting actress
1. Ariana grande
2. Zoe Saldana
3. Selena Gomez
4. Margaret qualley
5. Anjenue Ellis
FERNANDA TORRES babe
If "Magalopolis" does not receive a nomination for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Cinematography I will not be watching the Oscars this year. It was easily the best movie I've seen in the past 10 years. It was way better than all these others.
Such a weak year. Maybe conclave?
@@tonyg76 do you mean for the bets picture win? Weirdly I could see it pulling off a win even though it’s not a anything substantial yet, it’s the type of film you can see placing well on a preferential ballot. I still think I’m leaning more towards Anora but it’s a very open race.
@@LukeHearfield Yes. I am just looking forward to next years oscars. No passion picks this year.
Conclave and Anora are both very good!
@jonathan conclave is fine, anora is terrible.
The disrespect to Jacques Audiard has gone too far. 😂 He's one of the greatest filmmakers alive and arguably the most transcendent one of those who are chasing this year's nominations.
Despite people's misgivings, I still have faith that Ariana Grande can pull off the win for the best supporting actress Oscar. This is just my own personal opinion, but just because Zoe Saldana is the veteran actress and has paid her dues it doesn't guarantee her the win. Considering the backlash that Emilia Perez has been getting lately with how the director has chosen to portray the Hispanic/Mexican culture and its depiction of the LGBTQ community with the trans character, that might diminish her chances in winning. For example, actresses like Glenn Close, Amy Adams, and Michelle Williams have paid their dues, have been nominated for how many Oscars and they have never won. A recent example of this, is Glenn Close. Everyone was predicting her to win the Oscar in 2019 for her role in The Wife and the Oscar went to Olivia Coleman for The Favorite who wasn't that well known in the American film industry. Glenn Close at least is well known internationally. Emilia Perez was NOT a good film and personally I don't understand people's fascination with it. It truly is a racist film with all due respect to people who are rooting for it to win and that includes Zoe Saldana as much as I love her as an actress. When the interviewer was asking the director I don't know if it was recently, that what research did he have to do for the film, he stated that he didn't have to do much research. That shows his lack of empathy and ignorance towards the culture and the LGBTQ community. If you are going to do a movie that is going to portray the Hispanic/Mexican culture and the LGBTQ community, one has to do their thorough amount of research on the culture while at the same time being sensitive in how you are going to choose to portray the trans character. By the director just giving that statement only hurts its chances of winning and that includes in the supporting actress category. This may sound harsh, but I hope it goes home empty handed. Yes, I understand that Ariana Grande is a new comer and she's competing against a veteran and I think its bullshit that people want to hold that against her, in her not winning. You just have to look at the performance. For better or for worse, for the time being Zoe Saldana is the frontrunner to win the Oscar but I hope not. Let's hope and pray that Ariana Grande can overcome the backlash that she getting is in the meantime working against her that she's a newcomer and win this well deserved Oscar for playing Glinda the Good Witch. 🤞🤞🤞💖💚💖💚💖
Nosferatu should be nominated for best picture. It's way better than the overrated Emilia Perez.
I agree. Emilia Perez is a horrible movie.
Not very happy bout Carla and Zoe being locked in for that atrocious movie let alone Emilia Perez being nominated for best picture and director
The academy says they're opting for feel-good and fun film to win best picture. Even a real pain doesn't fit this criteria since it deals with incredibly dark themes and is also a drama. Despite also being a drama, Wicked is also a musical comedy that feels like the safest of these options and made everyone feel so happy despite the tough times of the LA fires. After winning SAG Ensemble, Wicked will feel like the more obvious choice to win this picture because it's the ultimate feel-good film of the year. That's also the ultimate surprise of the year that over exceeded and blew away everyone's expectations. I can see Wicked actually winning best picture simply because it's doing with these other genre, films and other IP films. Aren't, it's acting like an actual Oscar film. On top of that, older Academy members will have it as number one on a preferential ballot because they've known in loved the show for years and years. On top of that, they might just nominate the director for an Oscar as well, considering how the feel-good film of the year doesn't even have a director nomination. They might swap out Mangold for Chu Because his film was better received with sag and is predicted to win Ensemble. Not only is it predicted to, it was always expected to. It might be the best option to win best picture anyway, since all the other films have something lurking against them. Every film is either too long, too boring or too controversial. Wicked will be the perfect option to win best picture and the sequel will do the same. It's not what the academy usually goes for, I totally get them. However, it will be a nice change of pace considering the tragedy that has gone on in the world and how people need an escape from that. This film provided the perfect escape from all on that and made people cry and made people cry. Happy tears so that they can enjoy it over and over again. A best picture winner refers to a filming that one could watch over and over again, this film will be remembered for forever and will be the perfect option to win the Oscars. It really is the feel-good film that voters will gravitate towards because it's the safest and least problematic option.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 excellent analysis. There’s a very plausible argument that if Wicked wins SAG ensemble that it goes the distance and wins best picture - especially in a year as wide open as this one. X
@LukeHearfield Thanks. The tragedy of the fires put people in polarizing positions. Wicked could go all the way. It will definitely surprise in the next few weeks.
U r useless bc ur review of A Complete Unknown was stupid, careless & insulting to the movie cast & crew
Try to redeem yourself. Rewatch & research ur subject
Why don't you like Latinos and Brazilians?
The hate for Emilia Perez is so undeserved! It’s honestly baffling
Respectfully, in my opinion, I understand the backlash on it. Whether it’s “deserved” or not, that’s debatable. I personally did not care for the film at all. Being a fan of the art of cinema though, I always respect what a filmmaker is trying to do, even if there’s instances where I don’t care for the film.
I think it’s hard for people to not give respect for what they’re TRYING to do, and they instead just immediately s*** on it and disregard it.
For me, the film didn’t particularly land. The best part for me was Zoe Saldana’s number El Mal. I found the rest boring and unnecessary. I know some complaints have also been the accents and depiction of Mexico. I can’t speak to those though, because I am not Hispanic.
The sex change operation number also received a decent amount of hate. Personally, I thought it was a bit too tacky.
If you liked the film though, that’s ok! I agree that the hate has been a bit extreme. People can dislike the film I think, but they don’t need to trash and hate on it. Respect the work the artists put in at least!
It’s the ‘cool’ bandwagon of the year to hate on it.
I did not like “Emilia Perez”. The script lacked a major plot and the characters feel very one-dimensional, unlikeable, and their diversity being the most important character defining trait. I also did not like the director’s filmmaking style and overall the creative choices he made. Turning the movie into a musical only made the story worser to follow and the musical numbers (especially the penis to vagina song during the sex change operation) are really bad and cringey that took me out of the movie! It was the direction that really turned me off to the movie because I can feel the director’s smugness and that the movie was trying to make a profound socially conscious message about the trans community to the audience. But in reality, that message did not translate very well with the audience and especially the trans community, who found the movie to be offensive to them.
This movie is terrible imo. Emilia Perez is one of the most selfish characters I've ever seen in movie history. Then pushing her off on us as a 'hero' is just gross. If she was portrayed as the villain she really is, the movie would have been better. I'd give the movie 1.5/10. The opening music number was excellent and Zoe was good in the movie. The rest was trash.
@@ikanghelpmyself0912I think the hate is necessary when it comes to open the eyes of the academy voters. As Hispanic I think is a full disrespect the director’s lack of study around the country he’s representing as an internacional feature. The amount of stereotyped plots and scnearios is so big that just confirms the fail of the internalization attempt and the hypocritical progressiveness of Hollywood critics' taste.