Inside the Deal: How the EU Got Brexit Done
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- Опубліковано 28 гру 2023
- On Thursday, November 30, we welcomed back our former visiting researchers, Stefaan De Rynck, currently Head of the European Commission's Representation in Belgium, for a discussion of his new book: Inside the Deal: How the EU Got Brexit Done. De Rynck was a close aide to Michel Barnier during the Brexit negotiations, and here he tells the EU's side of the story leading up to the final deal. The event was moderated by Vivien Schmidt, Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration at Boston University.
De Rynck was a Visiting Researcher at the Center for the Study of Europe in 2013-14. He has worked as an EU civil servant on financial regulation, the single market, transport policy, sustainable urban development and on EU Treaty changes. He has a PhD in political and social sciences from the European University Institute in Florence and teaches at the Public Governance Institute of the University of Leuven in Belgium.
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So our representatives in the EU had analyzed the consequences of Brexit quickly and thoroughly when the British side didn’t. The Barnier team knew where this could end, had different scenarios covering each possible routes. The British government was just blind, somehow arrogant and believed it would be resolved by last minutes concessions from the EU side.
They basically took the two mottos “ Brexit means Brexit and we will make the most of it” as well as “het Brexit done” as their own. And it worked: the EU has so far made the most of that lose lose situation and got Brexit done mainly by protecting the EU member states interests.
Though lesson for our British friends and Allies and a stark reminder to other big blocks that the EU institutions are a partner that needs to be taken seriously.
The saddest thing - for the British people - is that Brexit cannot be reversed. The UK may come back in the future but never on the same terms.
The thing that hits me most of all is the difference in quality between the two teams. Sunday versus premier league.
In other words, the British negotiators/Tory politicians/Brexiteers/etc .. were completely outclassed. I still remember ........ we have all the cards ..........
My favourite part of these negotiations was when UK (with Boris) said it would break the agreement (over Nothern Ireland) in a "specific and limited way" .
Yes, irredeemably idiotic. Every diplomat in every country that has a dispute over anything with the UK learnt by heart that phrase the following day.
Good presentation but let me add one point. Of all EU countries...only one, Ireland - and so often overlooked by media and commentators, certainly British ones, and EVEN European ones...Ireland was way ahead in its planning for Brexit...very simply because it was/is the only one that knew what the REAL sticking point would be - Northern Ireland! Plus, of all EU members, Ireland, and over many centuries, has had most 'history' in dealing with 'the Tory mindset' ...therefore, it was Ireland, its ambassadors and diplomats, who were told to go quietly, Capital to Capital, to explain what the biggest issue would be. Ireland knows its history v. well, esp. ESPECIALLY! vis-a-vis the Tory Brexit 'entitled-exceptionalist' mindset, and so worked diligently behind the scenes to explain that to our fellow europeans. It was due to that long hard back-work that the REAL challenge was understood and finally inserted as the 3rd issue, 1, money, 2, peoples rights and 3. N. Irl. That is the reason the Conservatives were so affronted, indeed some Tories were shocked, by the steadfast-EU stance by the Govt in Dublin...indeed, if they thought about it at all, they presumed Ireland would simply roll-over...but those roll-over days are long gone. It needs to be recognised that, early-on, it was Ireland which played the crucial role, and that includes Leo Varadkar's meeting with B. Johnson in Liverpool.
You are correct, but don't worry. We have learnt the lesson you taught us. Greetings from Finland where we also know a thing or two about difficult neighbours.
Great post. Ireland played a very strong game from the day after the Brexit vote. UK did very little over the summer but Ireland got themselves into every EU capital before the British ever stirred themselves. They also arranged to reroute their trade by ship and ferry from the old 'landbridge'.
@@rentregagnant Yes, and everything the Brits can do about it by now is to complain.
Different thing with the Russians over here, but hey ho, nothing anybody wasn't expecting... When one has difficult neighbours the story is always the same.
For some weird reason the British keep expecting the French to take their refugees. Their illusions are so entertaining.
The biggest issue was always denying British banks passporting rights in the EU while also securing tariff free trade for EU goods in the UK. And this way minimizing the worst dangers of Brexit to our own economy and banking system. Northern Ireland was a welcome smoke screen. Despite the enormous importance of the financial sector to the British economy, it never made much headlines, because there was always Northern Ireland to talk about.
Very true.
An assumption of power when there is equality creates weakness. Also, the people capable of negotiating Brexit were against it. Britain did a terrible job of deciding what it wanted and negotiating to get it.
Brilliant explanation!
It was easing for my mind to watch this adult contribution to the Brexit lessons learned.
Great talk. Stefaan De Rynck is correct when explaining that UK negotiators (and many of the British public) didn’t understand how the single market operated. How could a country expect to participate without agreeing to common standards including biological just because they had been members previously
Because they think they are exceptional and that 27 countries cannot manage without them.
But you now see the underlying problem.
The UK has not had a foreign trade competency for 40+ years. That was all outsourced to the EU.
So no the UK negotiators were definitely not up to scratch when they negotiated the EU FTA.
In fact to even do what they did they had to second some people from Australia and NZ.
But now they have a trade competency, still building up skills of course, now just 3 years after transition.
Now they are directly operating 40+ FTAs, they are working closely with negotiators in the CPTPP.
Exports are now EU 41.3% and reducing and have been reducing for 2 decades, Non-EU 58.7% and increasing. This will probably accelerate due to EU barriers.
Imports EU 47.2% and non EU 52.8
Too early to tell yet but I expect the EU to fall a little now the UK has had to put up some checks.
But the interesting one is food supply
The ratio of EU to Non EU to local UK supply is
26%:20%:54%
Now non tariff barriers are going up in front of the EU, tariffs are dropping to non-EU and food production technology is offering the UK new ways to produce food that are more environmentally friendly and efficient.
So if you consider all this in a strategic timeframe I.E. The next 10 to 20 years, the UK is now in a better place to still trade with the EU market of 450 million people but also trade with the Non-EU market of 7.5 billion people places where growth, and needs are much higher than the EU.
This is Churchill's 3 circles plus.
So now the UK has it's own trade competency, it's still limited in experience, but that is growing as the manage and promote existing trade deals 40+ and keep expanding with more negotiations.
The trends are now strongly to Non EU, but still strong in the EU.
As I said only 3 years after transition. They will be in a much better place in say 7 years 2030.
@@peterclareburt4594 Sorry, that made absolutely no sense and did not use the current ONS figures. Try again.
@@samhartford8677 ONS quarterly trade April to June 2024
This is for the import and export of goods and services.
Can't find the food imports I found before though there are several government sites that have total food imports at 46% or 48% which match my figures.
Not sure what figures you have. But the imports and exports were from ONS.
There are any number of sources th at show the UK exports to the EU are in decline relative to the rest of the world.
So you perhaps need to do some more research.
And I guess you know the UK had to outsource its trade competency to the EU for the last 40+ years, that is common.knowledge and goes with membership.
@@peterclareburt4594o dear! Anyway I wish you luck
Fantastic video! As a British/American, I was shocked and appalled by the UK's decision to leave the EU.
I have friends who genuinely believed that EU would acquiesce to whatever demands the Brits would make - we really thought we were exceptional. I applaud how the EU handled the Brexit divorce process.
Why as an American you want the Brits in the eu. Would you like Mexico or Canada setting your laws and having open migration. To me as an American I cannot see why the uk ever joined the eu in the first place. Only skilled people should be able to move country like they do in the rest of the world. Really the eu was nothing but a race to the bottom unskilled migration on minimum wage.
@@terryj50 My friend, you speak as though the EU is a alien body. The UK was an integral part of the EU. The UK had judges on the top courts and had Commissioners serving in the executive - the UK had vetoed major legislation in the past that it didn't like.
It's going on 80 years since a western-European country fought another - it's no co-incidence that the EU/EEC has existed for much of this time.
At little reading and a little research goes a long way.
@@brioquery Since my time in the UK, I've observed a consistent decline in the country's participation within the EU. Since its departure, there have been noticeable improvements. The UK seemed to lack significant influence within the EU, losing fishing rights and experiencing the departure of several companies that relied on EU funds. While more people arrived in the UK from the EU than left for it, it's worth noting that most British citizens tend to migrate to countries like the USA, New Zealand, and Australia rather than within the EU.
From my perspective, the UK's exit from the EU has brought about positive changes. Visa regulations now govern entry, limiting access to benefits, while those arriving, like myself, are required to contribute through visa fees, NHS surcharges, taxes, and National Insurance payments. There's a misconception that the 4 million EU citizens previously employed by the NHS, but in reality, the majority of overseas NHS workers come from India and the Philippines. Some British individuals lament the loss of their Freedom of Movement (FOM), and I can understand their sentiment. However, it's important to note that having skills would enable them to pursue opportunities in the EU through visa programs. The main issue with people that want to go to the EU and claim to be smart are not smart enough to obtain visas.
@@brioquery But again to my question would you want open migration from 26 countries to the USA? why do you think its ok for the USA and the other 200 countries in the world not in the EU to have skilled migration visas and not the UK?
@@terryj50 The US has freedom of movement with 50 states and with more rights than EU citizens have.
Very interesting!
Very good read.
Fascinating! Will definitely get a copy of his book.
How true, it is a travesty
Einfach unglaublich.
Brilliant
He said Britain were always the odd one out in Europe. That we didn't fit in with Europe. And then says he was shocked by our vote to leave...
Just think about that.
Maybe because in 1975 67% of you voted in favor of the European project and that vote was trusted, though since then you've been always the stick in the wheel, always wanting to have a special status over the rest, always the exception. Farage and his clownish inflamatory and very offensive ways in the EP are hard to forget.
@@viquiben4919 yes i know they didn't want us but my point was he knew this fact, you knew, and i knew it. So why was he still shocked when we left. Why was anyone shocked? It was always going to happen at some point.
@@lovelybitofbugle219 Let's say that a bit of British exceptionalism and main role character complex was expected but not that the UK went straight forward against its own interests nor the lack of knowledge about what Brexit meant and what consequences would bring. Frankly nobody expected in Europe the leave vote to win, not even Cameron or Johnson did. But it won indeed, and now what? The EU is not collapsing wich I think was one of the goals behind Brexit, on the contrary is getting stronger, and the UK is on their own in a world that it's increasingly setting up in blocs and superpowers, like a fish in a tank of sharks. And the EU did want you in, don't doubt it, it was England that wanted you out.
@@viquiben4919 Mate i hear you, but every single European I've spoken to was glad to see the back of us.
And they all basically agree with you that the reason we left was because we think we're exceptional.
I never really know how to address that. I apologise i suppose.
@@lovelybitofbugle219 no apologies needed, just know that general opinion is that you'd be welcome back. Meanwhile I really wish you the best.
UK sold NI down the river 😂😂😂...lol the Union
Any introduction for a speaker which lasts 2 min 30 seconds is 2 minutes too long...
We were always the odd one out because we have an overwhelming attachment to democracy. To us democracy has always been there whereas with other eu states it was just another form of government.
Oh my God what pompous ridiculousness. You have no constitution and you are always one election away from dictatorship because of it. Your absolute PM Queen/King had to be told that the sovereign parliament had to give them the right to leave the EU and that it was not possible to ignore the parliament by preroging it. What did your absolute quasi-dictator PMs do? Moved to deny the courts the right to limit his power and demand Henry the VIII powers to avoid the parliament.
GB has an attachment to democracy? Really? You think your way of government is democratic? Really? Well, that explains a lot
And yet, here we are now, January 24 and the UK is growing (slightly) Germany is in recession, the eu in decline and floundering. The eu negotiated a very bad deal for its members. Too eager to punish Britain even at a cost to itself. Be because of Brexit the UK can move quickly and is more agile whereas the eu is a massive, slow, clumbersome blob.
Very proud to be once again the only genuine fully democratic sovereign country in the whole of Western Europe.
You have been fed shit and you think it's a King's lunch.
First, the fact that Germany kicked itself in the foot with its energy policy is not proof that Brexit is working. Most of the people in charge of earning the UK money through international trade are demanding that the TCA be renegotiated (and the unionists demand the same regarding the WA/NIP).
So, our EU negotiators, according to you, got us such a bad deal that it made you pay the monies, accept ECJ and citizens ' rights, put a customs border inside your country and gave your service providers little rights to provide services inside the EU whilst giving us the best deal on goods we've negotiated. Sure. Why do you think the EU is saying we think the deal is good for us and we aren't renegotiating it?
And you have an uncontrolled minority government based on 43.6% of the vote. In my county that would be called undemocratic.
UK "growth" is entirely down to the export of N Sea gas,as for moving quickly,not looking great is it.The country is in real financial trouble and Brexit has contributed a negative 5% of GDP (govt figures OBR).As for being a sovereign democracy ? we always were,sadly all we have to show is a blue passport and diminished influence on the World stage,we are now law takers instead of law makers.Just look around you and you can see which way the Country is heading,crumbling infrastructure is everywhere you look,thousands of foodbanks many of which are feeding people who are in work.I am one of "Thatchers children" and it looks to me as if we are back in the 1970s,a sort of self inflicted nightmare loss of 40 + years,very sad.✌
Oops. Turns out the UK was in recession. Who would have guessed...
Interesting! A Brit thinking the EU negotiated very badly for itself suggests we could get even more out of future deals/agreements with the UK. I had no idea and would've been open to ease some Brexit requirements. But now I'm thinking, what else could we possibly demand next time?
@@jansix4287 He's dreaming. He thinks getting the UK to pay the monies, include ECJ for citizens' rights, put a customs border inside the UK and getting basically no deal on services meant the EU negotiating badly for itself. 🤣
Good god that man sounds like Putin when he talks. Also remember the party he represents wanted Putin to be the president of the EU back in 2004
Stefaan de Rynck does not represent any party. He's a civil servant. You should really check your facts before you open your gob.
@@samhartford8677 Straight to the abuse? You think civil servants don't back party politics? Listen to the names he drops, all S and D members. He admits that the Euro deal was a battle against the British. Shame they didn't have the brains to negotiate elsewhere and use that to lever Europe. EU shuffles closer to the policies of the 3rd Reich.
He sounds professional and mature, UK was outclassed in every way from day one
@@papi8659 Outclassed ike all those in Burkina Faso?
Classic exiter rethoric. Funny that you don't mention the EUSSR? In fact there's only a city in Europe that is known for wearing a russian suffix in its name and that is Londongrad.
Eu got brexit done lol then why are all the remainers crying.
Exactly for that reason.
@@samhartford8677so it never got brexit done then did it as every remainer thinks they are hard dumby.
@@samhartford8677if it was done then remainers would not be sad and crying all the time.
@@terryj50 Sorry, that is not logical at all. Remainers would not cry if Brexit never happened, leavers would cry in that situation. You should take a class or two on logic.
@@samhartford8677 if remainers were smart they would be able to get visas like the rest us they are crying as they are too thick to leave for the eu.