Agreed. It's modeling and can give us some ideas based on different assumptions, but will never factor in the huge number of variables for a truly accurate prediction.
@@WriteLikeALegend I'm not optimistic since George hasn't worked out how he wants the story to go. Too many characters have drifted too far. I suspect that the TV show was based on all of, if not most of what he had planned but then he decided to rewrite his original plot after the backlash.
I agree, but also think there is hope. I think the big challenge is the story has relied on subverting classic fantasy tropes, which has been quite delightful. The problem with subversion, is it can put you in a catch 22 situation. If you give your main characters a really happy epic fantasy ending, it feels totally out of place. But if you give your most beloved characters a bitter, subverted ending, it feels very unsatisfying. I don't Martin had fully thought this through, and is now realizing it as he moves towards the end. I think the hope is that this is exactly the complex problem he's been dealing with in Winds, because the ending needs to be set up way out. I really hope he's on course to work out the ending which treads that narrow path and finds the bitter sweet, subversive yet satisfying ending the story needs.
Greetings... Allow me to introduce myself, I am the Tolkienesque novelist D L Lindeman. In my past, as a Literary Consultant, I have worked with aspiring "Gardener type" authors like George. I know from that experience that "Gardeners" have a really tough time re-immersing themselves in an abandoned narrative. George would have to step away from all of these projects, spend time "standing in Westros", and start anew from where he left off. A herculean task for someone with his seemingly "pampered child" personality.
Great insight, thank you. I have to say even as a plotter there is a "re-immersion" period I need to get back into the actual drafting of new content - finding the voice of the characters etc - so can definitely see how this would be even tougher for a gardener
I highly doubt he hasn’t written anything for ADOS, he’s admitted Tyrions chapters for winds is done and he loves writing them so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few chapters for ADOS written. Also in fairness he did release a few novellas and a 700 page fake history book since Dance. I think he put off writing winds for a while when the show was on I just hope he finishes it soon so we can get more dunk and egg novellas
I love the optimism and hope you are right! I'm sure he will have some material stashed away for ADOS - scarily he already had some from dance as a a head start on winds! I have a more hopeful video coming so stay tuned.
This is my favorite video I've ever seen on this subject. I am optimistic personally. I also feel that the last book is easier to write than this one. He's had the end of the story pretty well explored since the beginning. Getting the ducks in a row from the ballooning storylines is by far the biggest task. I think the series gets finished and we get at least 2 more Dunk and Eggs.
While I enjoy these videos, in the end theyre just for fun because i dont think we can truly predict asoaif based on math. And like a lot of things, there are several reasons delaying WoW. 1) his own professed loss of interest when outlining a story and knowing exactly how its going to end 2) simultaneously, his lack of planning amd his gardening style means hes written himself into a very complex corner 3) distractions, distractions, distractions + getting rich late in life, etc. 4) etc etc etc
I don't really think he's only written 85 pages/year. My guess is that he's been rewriting many of those 1,300 pages. GRRM said he wants to end Asoiaf in 7 books, so the whole Winds is a basket of Mareenese knots. Dreams will be easier to write as many of the POVs will be dead and the story will be reaching its end.
I agree totally! There is a video where he said that explicitly. With any novel that can be the case (I'm in the throws of editing mine for the 4th time) but for grrm it's worse because with such a complex story and no outline he's probably rewriting chapters from scratch rather than just incremental edits - and every edit made necessitates another elsewhere in the book
George is having serious problems writing Winds of Winter because of all the PoV characters and complex plot points and character interactions. A Dream of Springs will be easier for him, I hope
@@WriteLikeALegend Yeah, he needs to start killing characters off quickly to maintain a good flow when writing aDoS. I honestly believe that a Feast for Crows was his procrastination in full swing. He just didn't want to get down to the plot points that would really move the story along
I don't think he cares enough to finish his series. The show left a bad taste in his mouth, but only he has himself to blame. He greenlit the show before his story wasn't even finished. He should have sold the film rights of his work when he finished the story not beforehand. That is the one major thing I learned. I am writing a book series myself, and I learned that If my series ever becomes popular. I will never sell the film rights until the series is done, and then maybe consider.
In practice that's going to be very hard to extract. The worst they could do is threaten to sue to get his advance back. Well, that's going to be tiny compared to his existing fortune, and would end the contract, which means he can then sell the rights to another publisher, where he will get much more. His last publishing contract will probably have been signed before GoT became the biggest show on TV.
2027 is pretty based for Winds. It certainly won't come out this year and quite possibly not in the next year. But 2027? Yes... Assuming George has/will overcome all the problems with the ever expanding plotlines. And it would also mean a positive news for Dream. Sure, I am an optimist by nature but I really really think that he is already setting up all the pieces to come up with a satisfying conclusion and therefore writing the Dream will be much easier. And now excuse me, I'll have more copium to inhale to get me going...
Thanks for the comment! I would hope that winds is the hardest book - the one where he reconciles where his gardening has got him with the ending he wants to get to. The one where he starts pruning the garden, ending plot lines and killing off characters. If that's the case I think dream will be quite a fast book for him to write (I have a video on that).
Haha you are not the first person to mention this! It was just to be able to get the icons and book art to fit and line up nicely in the landscape orientation. I do accept it's heresy though, so do feel free to burn efiges of me for new year!
@@WriteLikeALegend If he'd ever had an ending in mind, he'd have got there long ago. When the next book comes out, it will be so long people will die before they can finish reading it.
Lmao maybe true. Although my suspicion is he did have an ending in mind (he's said said) but his gardener writing has made him go in such tangents he's now struggling to make that ending work. I've been thinking about this for a video but not there with it yet - but he has a real challenge. His books have subverted genre expectations, but that makes an ending hard to find. A classic fantasy good guys conquer bad guys endings would feel like a hollow betrayal, while a nihilistic ending where nothing gets better and beloved characters fail or are tarnished is not going to resonate. Adding more magical elements like Euron will have made this challenge worse. He treads a fine line.
@ He said he knows where things are going but that doesn't mean he has an all encompassing ending in mind. In 2013, he gave D&D the fate of some of the main characters but not of all. He said it would be "bittersweet" as Tolkien's "scouring of the Shire" and my guess is that he does not intend to leave people happy with it but thoughtful.
Since I've been making grrm videos again I've really been thinking about the story and how to resolve it, and I can see how he's gotten so stuck. You can't do a traditional fantasy ending because it's out of the tone he's established, but that makes it hard to make the ending feel satisfying for the beloved characters. If I was in his position and already had hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank maybe I'd give up too!
@@WriteLikeALegend That's totally fine, I don't think most people have a problem with him giving up per se, it's the lack of communication and honesty. It's how he keeps stringing along the fans, and keeping us in the dark, that's what the people have a problem with, if he was honest and said 'You know guys, at my advanced age, I just don't have the drive anymore, I won't be finishing the series, I just wanna enjoy the rest of my life in peace.' I don't think most people would give him crap for any of that and he could just ride into the sunset enjoying what is left of his life. And also I don't see how this series can be wrapped up in a satisfying manner in just 2 books, I would say it needs 4 more books at least to finish the story properly, but Martin doesn't have the fire anymore for such an undertaking, he should just write a rough outline and name a successor writer that can take over ASOIAF after he passes, but of course he doesn't care about the fans to do that.
I definitely agree he should write a kind of treatment style outline for the rest of the story. I think I'd be fairly happy to know what happens to the main characters and the overall conflict with the Others if he fails to finish. It could be packaged up with whatever chapters he has finished. I'd be less of a fan of reading another authors interpretation of grrm's outline than just the outline itself tbh
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](/img/n.gif)
Us Berserk fans know how it feels.
Wtf is a berserk?
@@HOTD108_ you must check it out. Unfortunately the author of the manga has died like, 3 years ago.
Ah thanks for clarifying
@@HOTD108_looked into it yet??
@@HOTD108_a manga/japanese comic about a dark hero seeking revenge against demons and monsters
This wasn't depressing at all... 😟
I'm so sorry! If you watch to the end the final model gives the hopeful version
It's impossible to predict. Not even George knows when he's going to finish. It may never be finished .
Agreed. It's modeling and can give us some ideas based on different assumptions, but will never factor in the huge number of variables for a truly accurate prediction.
@@WriteLikeALegend I'm not optimistic since George hasn't worked out how he wants the story to go. Too many characters have drifted too far.
I suspect that the TV show was based on all of, if not most of what he had planned but then he decided to rewrite his original plot after the backlash.
I agree, but also think there is hope. I think the big challenge is the story has relied on subverting classic fantasy tropes, which has been quite delightful. The problem with subversion, is it can put you in a catch 22 situation. If you give your main characters a really happy epic fantasy ending, it feels totally out of place. But if you give your most beloved characters a bitter, subverted ending, it feels very unsatisfying. I don't Martin had fully thought this through, and is now realizing it as he moves towards the end. I think the hope is that this is exactly the complex problem he's been dealing with in Winds, because the ending needs to be set up way out. I really hope he's on course to work out the ending which treads that narrow path and finds the bitter sweet, subversive yet satisfying ending the story needs.
Greetings... Allow me to introduce myself, I am the Tolkienesque novelist D L Lindeman. In my past, as a Literary Consultant, I have worked with aspiring "Gardener type" authors like George. I know from that experience that "Gardeners" have a really tough time re-immersing themselves in an abandoned narrative. George would have to step away from all of these projects, spend time "standing in Westros", and start anew from where he left off. A herculean task for someone with his seemingly "pampered child" personality.
Great insight, thank you. I have to say even as a plotter there is a "re-immersion" period I need to get back into the actual drafting of new content - finding the voice of the characters etc - so can definitely see how this would be even tougher for a gardener
He just signed on to work on a game of thrones movie too :(
I highly doubt he hasn’t written anything for ADOS, he’s admitted Tyrions chapters for winds is done and he loves writing them so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few chapters for ADOS written. Also in fairness he did release a few novellas and a 700 page fake history book since Dance. I think he put off writing winds for a while when the show was on I just hope he finishes it soon so we can get more dunk and egg novellas
I love the optimism and hope you are right! I'm sure he will have some material stashed away for ADOS - scarily he already had some from dance as a a head start on winds! I have a more hopeful video coming so stay tuned.
I just want to see Stannis defeat Ramsay Bolton in WoW
My big hope is to find out something about the true origins of the others
Wtf have world of warcraft do with this?😂 😂😂😂😂😂
I just want to see what becomes of Jon and Lady Stoneheart...
This is my favorite video I've ever seen on this subject. I am optimistic personally. I also feel that the last book is easier to write than this one. He's had the end of the story pretty well explored since the beginning. Getting the ducks in a row from the ballooning storylines is by far the biggest task. I think the series gets finished and we get at least 2 more Dunk and Eggs.
Thank you so much for your kind words - and your optimism! I really hope you are correct, I'd love some more Dunc and Egg
While I enjoy these videos, in the end theyre just for fun because i dont think we can truly predict asoaif based on math. And like a lot of things, there are several reasons delaying WoW.
1) his own professed loss of interest when outlining a story and knowing exactly how its going to end
2) simultaneously, his lack of planning amd his gardening style means hes written himself into a very complex corner
3) distractions, distractions, distractions + getting rich late in life, etc.
4) etc etc etc
Totally agree.
I don't really think he's only written 85 pages/year. My guess is that he's been rewriting many of those 1,300 pages.
GRRM said he wants to end Asoiaf in 7 books, so the whole Winds is a basket of Mareenese knots. Dreams will be easier to write as many of the POVs will be dead and the story will be reaching its end.
I agree totally! There is a video where he said that explicitly. With any novel that can be the case (I'm in the throws of editing mine for the 4th time) but for grrm it's worse because with such a complex story and no outline he's probably rewriting chapters from scratch rather than just incremental edits - and every edit made necessitates another elsewhere in the book
You must have some serious faith in medical technology to think it could keep George alive long enough to finish ASOIAF haha
I spent so long trying to do an illustration of a zombie grrm
George is having serious problems writing Winds of Winter because of all the PoV characters and complex plot points and character interactions. A Dream of Springs will be easier for him, I hope
Thanks, I'm working on a follow-up video going into this exact point!
@@WriteLikeALegend Yeah, he needs to start killing characters off quickly to maintain a good flow when writing aDoS. I honestly believe that a Feast for Crows was his procrastination in full swing. He just didn't want to get down to the plot points that would really move the story along
That's the great hope for the next book - a much more streamlined affair with a single main plot as all the threads come together
You monster! Who puts "time" on the Y-axis!
Forgive me your honour! I know what I did was wrong, I just wanted my little icons to line up all pretty like! 😭
It’s coming for Christmas
Only if Santa takes over the writing. They do look similar...
Santa is here: ua-cam.com/users/shortsLPXYjBXMauU?feature=share
I don't think he cares enough to finish his series. The show left a bad taste in his mouth, but only he has himself to blame. He greenlit the show before his story wasn't even finished. He should have sold the film rights of his work when he finished the story not beforehand. That is the one major thing I learned. I am writing a book series myself, and I learned that If my series ever becomes popular. I will never sell the film rights until the series is done, and then maybe consider.
Thanks for the post! May I ask the genre of your own writing?
Simple answer to all this - his various publishers need to step in and bring the danse macabre to an end soon.
But do they have any power over him anymore?
@@WriteLikeALegend some contractual obligation
In practice that's going to be very hard to extract. The worst they could do is threaten to sue to get his advance back. Well, that's going to be tiny compared to his existing fortune, and would end the contract, which means he can then sell the rights to another publisher, where he will get much more. His last publishing contract will probably have been signed before GoT became the biggest show on TV.
Ps not wanting to argue, I wish there was a way out too, I just don't see one without grrm deciding to make it happen
@@WriteLikeALegend By the Seven, what an impasse.
2027 is pretty based for Winds. It certainly won't come out this year and quite possibly not in the next year. But 2027? Yes... Assuming George has/will overcome all the problems with the ever expanding plotlines. And it would also mean a positive news for Dream. Sure, I am an optimist by nature but I really really think that he is already setting up all the pieces to come up with a satisfying conclusion and therefore writing the Dream will be much easier. And now excuse me, I'll have more copium to inhale to get me going...
Thanks for the comment! I would hope that winds is the hardest book - the one where he reconciles where his gardening has got him with the ending he wants to get to. The one where he starts pruning the garden, ending plot lines and killing off characters. If that's the case I think dream will be quite a fast book for him to write (I have a video on that).
Would it ever get finnished......
Why aren’t the years on the X axis?
Haha you are not the first person to mention this! It was just to be able to get the icons and book art to fit and line up nicely in the landscape orientation. I do accept it's heresy though, so do feel free to burn efiges of me for new year!
We're all going to die before he finishes 😞
I'm hoping he might go before me, so at least I have some years without waiting in vein :p
In all seriousness though I hope he's written down his desired ending even as a brief summary in case of the worst!
@@WriteLikeALegend If he'd ever had an ending in mind, he'd have got there long ago.
When the next book comes out, it will be so long people will die before they can finish reading it.
Lmao maybe true. Although my suspicion is he did have an ending in mind (he's said said) but his gardener writing has made him go in such tangents he's now struggling to make that ending work. I've been thinking about this for a video but not there with it yet - but he has a real challenge. His books have subverted genre expectations, but that makes an ending hard to find. A classic fantasy good guys conquer bad guys endings would feel like a hollow betrayal, while a nihilistic ending where nothing gets better and beloved characters fail or are tarnished is not going to resonate. Adding more magical elements like Euron will have made this challenge worse. He treads a fine line.
@ He said he knows where things are going but that doesn't mean he has an all encompassing ending in mind. In 2013, he gave D&D the fate of some of the main characters but not of all.
He said it would be "bittersweet" as Tolkien's "scouring of the Shire" and my guess is that he does not intend to leave people happy with it but thoughtful.
George doesn't have the work ethic, he'll never finish TWOW, let alone ADOS. This series is screwed.
Since I've been making grrm videos again I've really been thinking about the story and how to resolve it, and I can see how he's gotten so stuck. You can't do a traditional fantasy ending because it's out of the tone he's established, but that makes it hard to make the ending feel satisfying for the beloved characters. If I was in his position and already had hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank maybe I'd give up too!
@@WriteLikeALegend That's totally fine, I don't think most people have a problem with him giving up per se, it's the lack of communication and honesty. It's how he keeps stringing along the fans, and keeping us in the dark, that's what the people have a problem with, if he was honest and said 'You know guys, at my advanced age, I just don't have the drive anymore, I won't be finishing the series, I just wanna enjoy the rest of my life in peace.' I don't think most people would give him crap for any of that and he could just ride into the sunset enjoying what is left of his life. And also I don't see how this series can be wrapped up in a satisfying manner in just 2 books, I would say it needs 4 more books at least to finish the story properly, but Martin doesn't have the fire anymore for such an undertaking, he should just write a rough outline and name a successor writer that can take over ASOIAF after he passes, but of course he doesn't care about the fans to do that.
I definitely agree he should write a kind of treatment style outline for the rest of the story. I think I'd be fairly happy to know what happens to the main characters and the overall conflict with the Others if he fails to finish. It could be packaged up with whatever chapters he has finished. I'd be less of a fan of reading another authors interpretation of grrm's outline than just the outline itself tbh
George needs to lock in fr
Fr?
Maybe you should write the books
Aren't we all secretly working on our fanfiction ending?
Needs to take some tips from Mr Sanderson 🤔
Yup, just power through
And also buy a laptop so he can work when he's travelling!
Stormlight is nowhere near as complex as ASOIAF though
It’ll come out in 2028, mark
My words.
Inside information?
@ Na I wish, lol. 2028 just feels right.
Any prediction on dream of spring?