If you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing to my newsletter on www.logicofwar.com. And remember to be careful about attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section where someone uses my profile picture from a different account. I will never ask you to contact me on private platforms like Telegram or WhatsApp.
Serious question: would it be considred illegal if for example ukraine would target russias cotton supply on kazhachstans & usbekistans fields with cotton specific pathogens?
Wow you are extremely optimistic for Ukraine to survive. Intelligence from NATO saying Russia is producing tanks/armoured vehicles/artillery ammunition faster now than what they are losing in 2024 . I support Ukraine 100% but in the long view Russia's tactics even if it looks clumsy will eventually work if the West don't drastically up their game. France know what's coming long term that's why they are eager to send troops. US aid is a drop in the bucket unfortunately to what it would take to just hold the line long term.
It's the same kind of mechanic and perceptions that underlined the appeasement politics pre-ww2. When europe isn't DIRECTLY threatened (invaded even) there's this sense that it's not really necessary. "We live in peace and we'll continue to live in peace".... no need to change to war industry, no need to prepare for war.... until suddenly one day catastrophy hit and everyone woke up and realized Hitler were never going to stop at the de facto abolishment of democracy and change into dictatorship and totalitarianism, massive secret rearmament of offensive weaponry, the annexation of Austria, Sudetenland/Checkoslovakia, part of Lithuania, The Free City of Danzig.....
@@blafonovision4342 Today? No. Basically nonexistent. US has one, small scale production of high-cost high-tech weapons, but Europe has almost nothing. 80 years of relative peace and reliance on the US protection made its job.
Anders as a Vietnam Veteran that now lives in Ukraine I am pee'od that the US is forcing Ukraine to fight the same why I had to fight in Vietnam. Just enough to survive but not enough to win. Western aid here arrives slowly and in small qualities and often after its need has passed. So rather than bore you my point is the West just wants Ukraine to survive and NOT win because the West, collectively, is scared of Russia losing and what that entails of a post war Russia.
That’s an interesting parallel. I’d say you were handicapped more by being given the ability to engage the total warfare doctrine and Ukraine is being restricted from both total warfare and enough systems. That’s what left our men and women (99% men) in Vietnam high and dry.
Vc está mentido n falto equipamento militar para voces dos EUA na guerra do viatnam vcs foram massacrados por q saber luta na selva e viatmin sairão vitoriosos
You are suggesting I think that "The West" is the U.S.A. which it is not. The West is NATO of which the U.S.A. is the big brother, but there is a difference. In NATO countries, except the U.S. and Canada, within living memory, have been invaded, or at least suffered from conflict with their nations and they know the consequences of such actions, in the form of destruction of cities and killing of civilians. Europe does not want a repeat of those consequences, but they cannot ignore, nor do they believe, that all Russia wants is Ukraine, and after Russia has that, everything will revert back to niceties, caviar, and Russian stackable dolls for all. The solution is for NATO as a whole, to supply money, arms, reconstruction, and a whole host of other assistance, to the best of their ability. America with its huge population and economy has the funds to offer. Canada has a much smaller population, but masses of raw material to assist. Failure to stop Putin and his dictatorship from looking east with salivating jaws will mean more and more danger to all, beginning with Ukraine and the rest of Europe, then North America. This nasty man and his dictatorship has to be stopped now!
Three months later, we can see what happened. The game changing weapons made no real difference. Many were neutralized outright, others did somewhat increase casualties and bitterness. One can say the influx of weapons without a reasonable endgame strategy only made the defeat more punishing.
Anders, I always appreciate your thoughtful and informed analysis of events on the ground in the Ukraine War. I consider your channel a go-to resource for understanding developments on the tactical and strategical levels, as well as the political and socioeconomic levels. Keep up the good work.
@@umahanov1 I wonder if people that comment what is essentially "nuh uh" realize how silly they sound responding to a well reasoned argument with nothing of substance.
Thank you Anders for your videos. You articulate very complex things in a way that a normal person can understand and learn from these, it is hugely valuable. BIg love from Finland.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Biggest takeaway is that the russian army is the joke of the world at this point. At this point, Poland could defeat the russian army. They're a complete and utter joke.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Anders> Russia can not win< For one military analyst to erase any possibility for Russia to win , means that he its very smart and can predict future, or he only speak what hes proukrainian audience want to hear.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
@@tomasescalante2987 and? Your point I guess is that 'he's spewing western propaganda'? If no, sorry for the assumption, otherwise go away. But thanks to your comment, I looked it up and Denmark joined Nato in 1949, so it's damn right that his college contributes to the alliance.
I had heard of the "failed state" PoV, but hadn't really thought about it. Thanks for pushing it forward. THAAAAKs, Nielsen, now I have more to think about!
“When Russia began this war their aim was to take all of Ukraine” What a load of bollox! That was never their 1) stated aims 2) perceived aim 3) theoretical aim 4) profesised aim 5) imagined aim. The handful of people who say this, coincidently are the same people getting paid by the three letter agencies.
It has been said by Putin many times over and Putin wrote it down to letter he sent to all world leaders too in the beginning of the war so you would be wrong my friend. I suggest you spend some time to study this topic.
@@PamweChete2503 Just search any news paper article about it, can't be that hard now can it? I mean if you are not capable of that, then how can you make any claims about anything at all?
@@KaosNova2 I don't have to, it is there if you want to read it, if you don't want to, then you come here to make these excuses of yours for your own lazyness.
This video represents focused junk full of subjective nonsense. But, as ever, lying brings clicks, and most people are so removed from this subject, they have no point of reference. Like you, for example.
@@jackofswords7Given proper support, Ukraine would have one. They still will win, if given proper support - I am informed that the europeans are now scared enough to ramp up aid. They are bigger idiots than the US.
Vielen Dank, lieber Anders! Really helpful video. I was listening up especially when you explained the russian war aims. Please keep up the good work! Mange tak!
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
@@brianrasmussen2956 Actually about 25% at least do want close relations with Russia. They mostly live in the East and South. Russia will take these regions, which have zero to do with any historic 'Ukraine'.
A bit optimistic to say that long term prospects favour Ukraine, no? Russia running out of stored equipment will likely stall their ability to advance, but in a static attritional fight they would seem to have an advantage due to higher internal production of equipment and a stronger economy allowing them to finance the battle "out of pocket" vs Ukraine requiring external aid or financing.
I think he implied that Europe would pull its fingers and provide a constant reliable source of military aid to Ukraine. Problem is that if China does the same, we essentially get nowhere.
You don’t have to wait for them to get more weapons. Once the Ukranians knew more was coming, they could stop rationing what munitions they have. You saw an immediate step up in Ukrainian offensive actions the day after the bill was signed.
@@masterlightjames950 …And a bunch of missile strikes on refineries. The US is not sending MEN. Just missiles, shells and some systems. The Ukrainian tactics are planned to conserve their men. They have retreated a dozen times in the past year, and then decimated the Russians that fill that void. You would think the Russians would figure that out… but they haven’t. Their losses are still double to triple Ukrainian losses. Russia’s military is a Potemkin village.
Their support of Russia gives us another reason to pull out of China. There are other reasons. Certainly, helping China is the biggest bothersome thing for me. The intellectual theft was a valid reason, as well. I also thought that the quality cheating was another valid reason.... The coupling of the army with industry is another valid reason. I don't think that decoupling with China because they are taking our jobs is valid, unless they are making people work in unsafe conditions and not paying them enough, since this is usually the case here in the US, and this gets very fuzzy. Plus, we want to lift everyone out of poverty. Also, isolationist countries always fall hopelessly behind in technology and into poverty. China cheating with free shipping and other trade advantages is a valid reason to decouple. Just because they make less doesn't mean that they can't buy just as much as we can, with less money.
@@dennisgarber As an authoritarian state oppressing minorities like uyghurs, there is always the possibility of workers being forced into un(der)paid work in unsafe conditions. But I don't enough to say if or how much that's a thing in every field of industry.
@@pRahvi0 Good point and good reason. Now, were I president Trump, I would use this Russian help as leverage against them, after I fully divested my self in russian money, per the Constitution's Foreign Emoluments clause, which he had waived in his first term. (how the f can you waive the Constitution of the Land?)
The average Russian wage is $400 but to coerce someone to fight in Ukraine, MOD has to pay them $2000 a month, 5* median income. This creates a shortage of labor in the real economy which causes inflation in wages and the cost of consumer goods. This is how Russia's war moblization has harmed Russia itself.
The average wage is above $600. Cost of consumer goods in Russia are still some of the lowest in the world. Despite predictions, Russia's economy has improved and is estimated to continue to grow faster than western countries many of which have entered a recession. That's not to say that your point is false. There is a shortage of labour but it's effects are miniscule. Higher wages are attracting expatriates and foreigners to come work in Russia.
then with the collapse of the Russian economy, which was promised 2 years ago, it never came? Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
@@leetster6303 The "growth" in Russian economy is purely artificial. Putin has made an extreme effort to mitigate the effects of the sanctions trying to ride the wave. In some months that bill will have to be payed. So what will happen then? The decline is happening, it might no be visible to normal people, but it decimates Russian economy if they don't do something different than they are today.
with the bleakness of the Russian long term strategic plan. I wish the us would build an Iron dome like air defense with in Ukraine. as an American I think it is vital we support Ukraine. thank you as always for your amazing analysis
Kirill Budanov said that the next Two months will be difficult, but there will be no Armageddon. According to Russian analyste Michael Nucki in his new UA-cam vidéo, the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing a spécial opération on the Crimean bridge in the near future.
Not the Crimean bridge again, that old trout has had its day, if blowing a bridge could end a war there wouldn't be any war, Russia has escalatory dominance, Ukraine never stood a chance, the Pentagon knew this and tried to talk Biden Neuland excetra out of it but they wouldn't listen now Ukraine is the fall guy, theyll try to keep some semblance of UKraine still fighting up to the election then it will be all over to Ukraines cost im afraid.
Unfortunately it's way more than one mans ego. While I completely agree that Putins ego is the catalyst of the Russian fascism, he wouldn't be able to do the things that Russia is doing without massive support among the military leadership, industry and business leaders and not least in the Russian population.
Thank You Anders for once again giving a brilliant summary of where we are at ..,.. the West had it's opportunity and wasted it alongside tens of thousands of lives..,..Slava Ukraine
🙏🕊🌻🔱 Excellent Analysis! Ukraine is Stronger with ATACMS, GLSDB, SCALP EG and Storm Shadow! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! The World Needs to Stand Unwaveringly Committed with Ukraine's Quest for Democracy and Retribution! 🔱🌻🕊🙏
You have good videos, and I often but not always agree with you, my biggest disagreement was in the video where you talked about Finnish Lapland as a weakly defended area, because in reality the defense of Finnish Lapland is better than the defense of the Baltic countries combined'. and I say this as a Finnish reservist with experience myself about the defense of Lapland and the arrangements that are there. But in general, I have been of almost the same opinion, but the ammunition situation in Ukraine will improve quickly, the first of the Czech initiative ammunition will start flowing into Ukraine next week, as well as the first parts of the US support package...one thing that all western countries must intervene is the Russian propaganda and disinformation machine, sharing it should be made illegal and punishable, it cannot and should not be justified by freedom of speech because it is literally the false propaganda of the enemy, Russia itself has declared itself the enemy of the entire collective West
And what organ is gonna judge what is and what isn't rus propaganda? How can we be sure it won't be abused to control or censor critics in general and not just the ones who propagate those lies? It's a slippery slope isn't it?
@@puraLusa well, at least you are relatively clearly, if not a direct troll, then at least a useful idiot, I have seen your comments in videos of several different channels, and almost all of them have been direct repetitions of the Kremlin's points. In Finland and Sweden, even in primary schools these days, from elementary school onwards, classes on the topic "how to recognize Russian propaganda" are organized, I recommend other countries to follow suit. your own comments, at least to a large extent, fulfill the hallmarks perfectly, because you immediately took a stand on the issue of freedom of speech, in Finland there is a saying"that dog is barking that was hit by a block of wood" your comment is a great example of how the old sayings are true, because whether that disinformation was shared due to stupidity or malice should not matter, but the fact that it is shared at all, it must be stopped, and preventing the spread of enemy propaganda is not interfering with anyone's freedoms, unless you support a rogue state and their views, then it doesn't even matter to you effect so how is it?
@@Finnishguy777 so, u are the ultimate judge of peoples position. U just made my case. Not only I'm pro-ukraine, I've been steadily placing 300 euros monthly to the cause which is a lot for a citizen of a poor country like me. By now, I would have a new car and where I live there isn't a public transport alternative, so yes, I've abdicated basic confort for ukraine. But u very fast named me a rus bot - this phenomenon is called witch hunt and it's outcome is inocent being attacked. Something u just did. Makes one wonder how easily people defend fascism to combat fascism 🤔.
In my opinion, even if some NATO countries decide to send troops and airforce to support Ukraine, Russia will win this one, Right now Both sides fight with o hand tied behind to not escalate the war, but Russia has bigger hand... And when i compare Russian army today and Russian army 2022 there is huge diffirence...
9:46. Somehow, this man has to bring these two contradictory issues together: 1) Ukraine has a man power shortage and 2) a long war of attrition works in Ukraines favour. Now, I’m not really sure how the side with less stuff, which is the same side that is loosing more stuff, is winning a war of attrition.
@@kjj26k Yes. The army with less weapons, no air superiority that is shooting less ammunition IS LOSING LESS STUFF. Get your head out of your propaganda space and look at reality.
Your mentality compares to that of the United States of America during the Vietnam War...the United States of America thought at that time that it just had to prolonged the war,,,because they had the money,,manpower,,weaponry,,technology,,,expertise etc to literally destroy Vietnam....si they didn't mind prolonging the war .. The result of the war showed that was very stupid thinking !!! The United States of America is making the same mistake in Ukraine right now !!! Because,,,,unlike Vietnam,,,Russia has the most nuclear weapons,,,the most powerful,,deadly,,and sophisticated also !!! It is the only country in the world that has the capacity to destroy the American fleet...with all its aircraft carriers !!! No other country in the world has that capacity !!! The Chinese can't do it,,the Indians can't do it ..only Russia can do it !!!
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 Anders has a ton of videos where he says over and over that Russia is running out of men and equipment (ie see title below). Meanwhile NATO just announced that Russia has more men and bombs now than they did at the start of the war - but Anders keeps saying Russia is running out of men / equipment even in the the video from today ua-cam.com/video/s8mTWexL8bs/v-deo.html
Europe will be at level with russia next year . Russias issues has just started…. The one there is winning here is China, they will get north east manchuria back after 200 years
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo russia isn't outproducing USA with like 1/100 of military budget, and US is just ONE country, it's very obvious putin isn't immortal, and the only question we have is if he will fight to the last russian, or keel over while a few of them still remain.
And they have exported those industries to nations like China and India which are in BRICKS and are nations with little interest in seeing America maintain its economic hegemony. It’s all good though, those politicians got paid really well to sell out their country so they may be able to ride the fallout. Sucks to be everyone else though 🤔
I’m with you on this , Russia does not seem to be fighting the war as if it’s in for the long run. So many bodies thrown into the grinder taken from their industrial base.
They relied on blitz in 2022, and since then, rely on fairy coming and blocking all aid to Ukraine, now the entire population of russia is praying that tRump will overthrow US government and save them, I AM NOT KIDDING, if you see russian chats, they legitimately thought USA will change its foreign policy and were surprised that aid got through. Their entire nation's existence depends on a foreign politician forcing America to do a 180 in its ways... Seriously.
How does a long game favor anyone but Russia in this war? Ukraine doesn't have the population to support a war of attrition and America has an absolutely terrible track record of supporting its allies. Russia is one of the largest resource producers in the world and being forced into an alliance with the greatest industrial power. NATO can't supply Ukraine, Israel and defend Taiwan simultaneously. The best Ukraine can hope for is support until the next election then everything will go towards and Israel/Iran war and defending Taiwan and Ukraine will be abandoned like Afghanistan or the South Vietnamese.
Its virtually impossible to know what is going on with the ukranian military. We have no idea how significant their casualties are, or what their equipment losses are. Ukraine, given its population should be able to put 2 - 3 million men into the field. So we dont actually know what is going on. All we have is guesses, and a portion of those will be proven to be wrong
There's open source tracking of UA losses too. Russians will post footage whenever they can. Drone footage shows vehicle wrecks, by using dating and geolocation you can find wrecks that were not on that place in previous videos.
Ukraine casualties are 31,000 Zelensky said and Ukranian MOD posting over 500,000 Russians killed I mean it kinda makes sense if you watch Marvel movies and believe that World Peace can be done Those are the guidelines that 90% of Baboons are trusting sk there you go ….
Q: We have no idea how significant their casualties are, or what their equipment losses are... A: Quite the opposite, OSINT gives an idea of Ukrainian losses comparing with Muscovite ones, which is 1:6 for now. And it also gives an idea of how much the Ukrainians are outnumbered and outgunned by the Muscovites.
@@robkit6681 the world where Russia is running around with tanks from the 50s (and now apparently building sheds on top of them), where their conscripts are constantly going into the battle with older obsolete gear, where the Russians STILL don’t have air supremacy almost 3 years into a major conventional war with a country 1/10th their own size, and one where the Russians have lost most of their Black Sea fleet in a land war to a country with no navy. So, I live in reality.
"There is slim chance of Russia's success in 2024" - I better frame it. That long ramble about Russia not being able into the long game did not ooze with confidence.
On paper it looks like a reasonable stance though. 2023 was a favorable stalemate for Ukraine, and it didn't cost much to the West. Whereas the other side is quickly burning through its cash and its soviet equipment. All we had to do was to keep this flow for a few more years.
@@yyyy-uv3po I always find russian proverbs to be the window into their soul. So they are saying "While the fat one dries, the thin one dies". I guess what I think that means is Uke doesn't have enough men to outlast Russia. And the West doesn't have enough resources nor the will to feed and arm 30 million people forever. Simple math. It worked in 1942 it will work this time.
Saying 'Ukraine's current manpower shortages' makes it sound as if this is a temporary problem that will get better, but it won't it will get worse. I think you need to address this directly because I think it's Ukraine's greatest problem
They have mobilized. So... It kind of is. It really depends on how doctrine shifts as drones become more and more impactful. If we see the operator list drones or one drone operator can service squadron of drones, manpower becomes much less of an issue.
@@Giganfan2k1 The Ukrainians have lost most of their well trained soldiers, if you keep up withat's happening on the frontline you'll see that Ukraines soldiers are starting to retreat without orders and the whole situation is becoming more and more chaotic, look out for mass surrenders in the next few days. Drones are useful but they cant replace manpower artillery and FABs, very sad but im afraid Ukraine is very near the end.
@@tedstewart114 Your defeatism reeks of Kremlin talking points. In case you're not a ru supporter, check yourself. And chin up. Ukraine will win... In case you are, enjoy your potato.
Ukraine has not really mobilized yet, they have made attempts but have had massive issues , they also need to lower the age from 27 to 18 like all other western nations. They have the manpower they just need to conscript them and stop the corruption which they claim they have.
But Russia is doing so little. It has so far accomplished less than Ukraine accomplished in its "failed" summer offensive (both lasting about the same amount of time).
@@DdiafwlL I added up the square km provided by the DeepStateMAP after Avdiivka was captured. Russia still has a long way to go to catch up with Ukraine's summer offensive gains. Don't be so naive. Do some research before posting.
@@tomk3732 I also heard in the news today that Ukrainians are running - towards the Russian excuses for soldiers. Easy pickings for them I guess. Have you noticed how Russian casualty figures are jumping to new highs lately? Their tiny advances are coming at a huge cost. How do Russians cope with two years of major territory losses and just occasional minor territory gains?
„The long term trend favours Ukraine“ ? How so? Looking at ukr. demographics, its dependence on forigne aid, the loss of its industrial base and the sell out of its most fertile land to forgine investors, etc. , one might beg to differ. Go fight yourself if the „long term future“ looks so rosy.
@@RobertMartin-ru2lx And that favours Ukraine in the long term? A country that never left „the wild 90‘s“. Never puttet a leash on its Oligarch class and ultimately gave up its independence in 2014. Remember Vic Nudelman‘s „Yatz is the man.“ Now lets talk demographics… No war -> no Shengen. Those who left wint return
@@asscandy9082 Yes. Russia has a far larger oligarchy correct? Demographics are very similar, and it's certainly true that both countries have more blood to spare.
Problem is: the military aid is only one piece of the puzzle. The other piece is mobilization of 300K extra soldiers and that has not happened so those weapons won't completely stop Russia.
@@youuuuuuuuuuutubeshame for the families of these guys as they won’t be alive very long. Why are Ukrainians fighting for western politicians and specifically the yanks who you can’t trust.
It kind of bugs me people saying "Russia is playing the long game" as if they had slick short term option. Like "Yea we could have gone for the cool blitzkrieg option, but we chose to run a WW1 reenactment instead". The statement implies agency on the part of Russia, but what agency do they really have in the strategic game? * Endure the long game * Nuclear roulette * Withdraw Something like that?
Simple, they want to grind down the Ukrainian military and humiliate Nato, seems to be going to plan as far as i can see, once they take Odessa they might talk.
What is actually happening is that the Russian production is already ramped up, they are capable of refurbishing and producing weapons at a rate higher than they are losing it ... I do not see why this is the peak and why in a few years they would run out ... China, Iran and North Korea are supplying them but they are already building this more not depending on these imports solely ... the opposite is true for Ukraine, its manufacturing capacity is down right now it is losing its energy generating capacity and all of its factories are in missile range it cannot build new equipment what you said about running out of the former Soviet stockpile happened, even with all former Eastern European stocks depleted. What is arriving now, MRAPs, Humvees, Javelins and Stingers, no Abrams tanks in the package, this will not stabilize the front, Stingers are short range, the Russian aviation is dropping the FABs well outside this range ... this just prolongs the war kills more Ukrainians for nothing the war will end the same way ... just maybe a bit later with more deaths.
What I don't understand is why Ukraine isn't targeting the substations that supply electricity for the rail network inside Russia. Two thirds of the freight is powered by overhead electricity. One substation can be easily fixed but take out a bunch of transformers and they will have a hard time replacing them quickly.
Transformers are not so difficult to replace, which I understand is why Russia targeted Ukraine transformers last year, but now have been forced to up the damage
Because it’s impossible for drones to cause any damage to a power plant, and the Zelensky regime doesn’t have anything more serious for attacks inside Russia? Haven't thought about it, idiot?
Apart from the fact (look back at his old videos) he has never got anything right. Compare him to Brian at the new Atlas, who has been bang on from the start. Anders sounds convincing but compared to Brian he is seriously out of his depth.
Look at his background. His income is funded by NATO money. He's been mostly wrong about everything because he's just spewing propaganda. He probably doesn't believe most of what he says.
What weapons? There are no reports of any sizeable munitions or weapons being delivered. The aid package was basically an order for restocking depleted US stores already delivered to Ukraine. Or am I missing something here?
As Perun just discussed today, there are billions of dollars of new Presidential Drawdown authority to send existing stocks of munitions to Ukraine. Indeed, more ATACMS have already been sent, and it won't surprise me if there were shipping containers of 155 mm artillery ammunition prepositioned in Poland poised to be driven across the border. It is true, however, that a lot of the aid will go to replenish the stocks of ammunition that America is allowed to give away, as well as expanding existing production capacity for those munitions.
@@ABCBCNMthey can’t even mobilize 500,000 that they are looking for this year, let alone other 2-3 years. Ukraine is falling apart it doesn’t have the personnel to support that type of long war.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Western forces could go in with an air defense mission and guard the flanks for Ukraine. That could free up tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops as well as their weapons and ammunition. By patrolling the Black Sea coast, the borders with Transnistria, and Belarus for Ukraine. h/t article I saw at Foreign Affairs
@ujenix1 Not necessarily, it's a normal response to a conflict of this kind. It would surely boost the morale. Putin is brittle. Let them see that their invasion is unwinnable.
@@eddiemerten3381 LOL. "Putin is brittle". So NATO soldiers cross into Ukraine and Russia just hits them with Iskandars. What then? WWIII? Or NATO backs down. Russia isn't going to back down so escalation either means WWIII or NATO backs down. You really haven't thought this through have you?
I'm in Kyiv right now and I can confirm that people are being hired on the street, often in the underground of metro stations (just before the exits), but not only. For that reason, a lot of men decide to walk on foot (where it's possible to "clear the path"), and also decided to live "za misto", so, like the suburbs. 8:45 That's what Tucker Carlson thinks lol, that Russia WILL win whatever happens, but actually indeed if Ukraine keeps getting support, then Russia is going to lose the war of attrition because they will run out of money.
Whatever, don't get me wrong,both Russia and Ukraine made big mistakes, Ukraine,for breaking the 014 deal signed by both country's,to respect citizens who wanted to remain Russian,while living in the Dondas region,but Ukrainian Nazis Azov bridge,kept bombing the area with the blessings of the USA puppet, Zelinsky,who by the way,is also a dictator,on the same scale as Putin, Arresting his political opponents, shutting down the media,only allowing, Pro Joe and zelensky reporting, And😂seeing young Ukrainian male's, stopped from crossing into neighbouring countries to dodge getting thrown into the force's,while they starve while Zelensky gets Rich on western money's,and never seen on the war front, Only with his begging bowl at the UN,or in Europe,grow some ball's Zeny grab a gun and go to the warfront,and fight,not grab a plane and flight 😅
What Anders fails to understand is that money is not the same as equipment and production capabilities. You do not win an artillery war when you lack artillery grenades. Ukraine is losing, and by proxy so is NATO.
Ukraine is far from loosing, i mean feel free to look at the development of the war map as a whole. But you are right, Ukraine can't keep fighting without steady supply of means to fight with. West should stop screwing around and start sending modern systems to Ukraine, that would fix the production issues. F-16 will help a lot as it enables West to send all sorts of missiles to Ukraine and Ukraine can also use them, which is something they couldn't with their Migs. This as an one example.
It seems delusional to expect Ukraine to subscribe to a long-term war. There are no people to fight the long war. The "manpower shortage" is not merely a weakness. It is an Achilles heel, which makes the whole "steady supply of weapons" versus Russians past the peak conjecture bitterly moot.
And on top of that, it looks like a relatively small % of Ukrainian men of fighting age are actually willing to fight in this existential war. I wonder what % of able men are in their military? If it's a small %, what hope can there possibly be?
@@legrandfromage6450 I think gaslighting might be a better way of explaining it. Most of the people with the experience and the hard numbers know which way the war was going to go short of some way of convincing Russia to stop. So it's basically propaganda to maintain morale and international support because as soon as the conventional wisdom becomes a Ukrainian loss much of the support dries up and instead we get a push for a diplomatic end to the conflict---which is what should have happened years ago.
@@jlpowell51 Wrong. I think you'll find the people with the experience are saying take the gloves off & take it to Russian soil with everything they have.
@@RocketPropelledWombat With everything they have? What is that they have that they're not using? It's pretty obvious what Russia has and isn't using but would use if pushed hard enough.
If you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing to my newsletter on www.logicofwar.com.
And remember to be careful about attempts at impersonation scams in the comments section where someone uses my profile picture from a different account. I will never ask you to contact me on private platforms like Telegram or WhatsApp.
Serious question: would it be considred illegal if for example ukraine would target russias cotton supply on kazhachstans & usbekistans fields with cotton specific pathogens?
@@UnfollowYourDreams Yes. That would not be a legitimate military target. At least I don't have enough knowledge about it to see how it would be.
@@UnfollowYourDreams Is Ukraine going to declare war to these independent countries ? Extremely stupid question
@@anderspuck it's a basic resource in explosives production for artillery shells. Nitrocellulosis and stuff.
Wow you are extremely optimistic for Ukraine to survive. Intelligence from NATO saying Russia is producing tanks/armoured vehicles/artillery ammunition faster now than what they are losing in 2024 . I support Ukraine 100% but in the long view Russia's tactics even if it looks clumsy will eventually work if the West don't drastically up their game. France know what's coming long term that's why they are eager to send troops. US aid is a drop in the bucket unfortunately to what it would take to just hold the line long term.
I don’t understand why the European industrial complex hasn’t spun up yet. It’s been 2 years now.
"Spin it up" with what? Millions of illiterate 80-IQ immigrants and a bunch of second-hand Russian fossil fuels at a 30% markup? Lol
It's the same kind of mechanic and perceptions that underlined the appeasement politics pre-ww2. When europe isn't DIRECTLY threatened (invaded even) there's this sense that it's not really necessary. "We live in peace and we'll continue to live in peace".... no need to change to war industry, no need to prepare for war.... until suddenly one day catastrophy hit and everyone woke up and realized Hitler were never going to stop at the de facto abolishment of democracy and change into dictatorship and totalitarianism, massive secret rearmament of offensive weaponry, the annexation of Austria, Sudetenland/Checkoslovakia, part of Lithuania, The Free City of Danzig.....
Because it doesn't exist.
@@true_xander Europe. All those wars. All those millennia. No military industrial complex? Please.
@@blafonovision4342 Today? No. Basically nonexistent. US has one, small scale production of high-cost high-tech weapons, but Europe has almost nothing. 80 years of relative peace and reliance on the US protection made its job.
Thanks!
Anders as a Vietnam Veteran that now lives in Ukraine I am pee'od that the US is forcing Ukraine to fight the same why I had to fight in Vietnam. Just enough to survive but not enough to win. Western aid here arrives slowly and in small qualities and often after its need has passed. So rather than bore you my point is the West just wants Ukraine to survive and NOT win because the West, collectively, is scared of Russia losing and what that entails of a post war Russia.
It's ironic really because the West should be much more scared by the prospect of a victorious Russia. That's the real threat.
That’s an interesting parallel. I’d say you were handicapped more by being given the ability to engage the total warfare doctrine and Ukraine is being restricted from both total warfare and enough systems. That’s what left our men and women (99% men) in Vietnam high and dry.
Vc está mentido n falto equipamento militar para voces dos EUA na guerra do viatnam vcs foram massacrados por q saber luta na selva e viatmin sairão vitoriosos
@@The_ZeroLine That's a bit oblique. What is "total war doctrine", and "enough systems"?
You are suggesting I think that "The West" is the U.S.A. which it is not. The West is NATO of which the U.S.A. is the big brother, but there is a difference. In NATO countries, except the U.S. and Canada, within living memory, have been invaded, or at least suffered from conflict with their nations and they know the consequences of such actions, in the form of destruction of cities and killing of civilians. Europe does not want a repeat of those consequences, but they cannot ignore, nor do they believe, that all Russia wants is Ukraine, and after Russia has that, everything will revert back to niceties, caviar, and Russian stackable dolls for all. The solution is for NATO as a whole, to supply money, arms, reconstruction, and a whole host of other assistance, to the best of their ability. America with its huge population and economy has the funds to offer. Canada has a much smaller population, but masses of raw material to assist. Failure to stop Putin and his dictatorship from looking east with salivating jaws will mean more and more danger to all, beginning with Ukraine and the rest of Europe, then North America. This nasty man and his dictatorship has to be stopped now!
Wauv, that was a brillant and informative video. Thank you so much Anders 🙏
Thank you for your analysis. Great video.
Three months later, we can see what happened. The game changing weapons made no real difference. Many were neutralized outright, others did somewhat increase casualties and bitterness. One can say the influx of weapons without a reasonable endgame strategy only made the defeat more punishing.
Som altid tak for en meget realistisk analyse 👍
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Va snackar du om? Ryssland är inte irak . 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Urealistisk
Hvilken analyse? Anders Cuck Nielsen er stadig en praktikant når det kommer til geopolitik.
Tack!
Anders you are as always really interesting to listen to. Keep up the good work. Hälsningar från Malmö ❤
Yes, Anders, it is all quite simple in the end.
You are the one to make us see the essentials, the bare geopolitical bones.
Thank you for your posts
Anders, I always appreciate your thoughtful and informed analysis of events on the ground in the Ukraine War. I consider your channel a go-to resource for understanding developments on the tactical and strategical levels, as well as the political and socioeconomic levels. Keep up the good work.
I greatly appreciate your unique and high-quality analyses!
High quality copium
@@umahanov1
To cope means to deal successfully with a problem. Ukraine is certainly coping with its problem neighbor.
It’s propaganda mate must be getting paid by US tax payees
@@umahanov1 I wonder if people that comment what is essentially "nuh uh" realize how silly they sound responding to a well reasoned argument with nothing of substance.
@@oryxland3994 i couldn’t have said it better myself 👏
Thank you Anders!
Thanks for your work Anders!
Thank you Anders for your videos. You articulate very complex things in a way that a normal person can understand and learn from these, it is hugely valuable. BIg love from Finland.
Thank you! Very interesting as always :)
1st time here. Great job Thank You.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Very sensible analysis - thank you for sharing your thoughts Anders, it is much appreciated in a tabloid world...
Delusional more like it
Thank you.
Love your videos, Anders. Regular viewer here. Always insights and pearls of wisdom.
The biggest takeaway is this: The russian military is a complete joke.
Biggest takeaway is that the russian army is the joke of the world at this point. At this point, Poland could defeat the russian army. They're a complete and utter joke.
Pearls of wisdom 😂😂😂
@@jetserbbetter than the nuggets of poop you feed upon.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Thank you Anders. I am afraid you are right.
You my friend are brilliantly deep and insightful. I love the “no bs” analysis you always provide. Keep it up. ☘️🇮🇪☘️👍
😂😅😂 what nonsense
In 2 years he has got nothing correct. He just talks the narrative and gullible people get wet listening to the fantasy.
@@thomasspeight3797 LOL sure comrade - enjoy your free speech here - you DON'T have it in Moscow!
Anders> Russia can not win<
For one military analyst to erase any possibility for Russia to win , means that he its very smart and can predict future, or he only speak what hes proukrainian audience want to hear.
Reckon the assertion that "Russia will run out of money in 2 to 3 years" is not BULLSHIT!?
Thank you for a good analysis.
Incredibly interesting and helpful ! Thank you for sharing !
Good comments, I appreciate your perspective. Thank you.
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
@@tomasescalante2987That bodes well for NATO if it’s supported by such high calibre academic institutions.
@@tomasescalante2987 and? Your point I guess is that 'he's spewing western propaganda'? If no, sorry for the assumption, otherwise go away. But thanks to your comment, I looked it up and Denmark joined Nato in 1949, so it's damn right that his college contributes to the alliance.
Solid analysis of the current situation as always, Anders.
Very interesting and well thought out.
I had heard of the "failed state" PoV, but hadn't really thought about it. Thanks for pushing it forward. THAAAAKs, Nielsen, now I have more to think about!
“When Russia began this war their aim was to take all of Ukraine”
What a load of bollox! That was never their 1) stated aims 2) perceived aim 3) theoretical aim 4) profesised aim 5) imagined aim.
The handful of people who say this, coincidently are the same people getting paid by the three letter agencies.
It has been said by Putin many times over and Putin wrote it down to letter he sent to all world leaders too in the beginning of the war so you would be wrong my friend. I suggest you spend some time to study this topic.
@@duhni4551then giving me a link or directing me to just one of those speeches should be an easy task for you. I give you 24 hours…I’m waiting.
I’m calling it. You won’t get the proof.
@@PamweChete2503 Just search any news paper article about it, can't be that hard now can it? I mean if you are not capable of that, then how can you make any claims about anything at all?
@@KaosNova2 I don't have to, it is there if you want to read it, if you don't want to, then you come here to make these excuses of yours for your own lazyness.
As usual, consistently good and realistic analysis. Thank you.
Thanks again, Mr. Nielsen! You always clear away a lot of the junk and give it to us straight.
This video represents focused junk full of subjective nonsense. But, as ever, lying brings clicks, and most people are so removed from this subject, they have no point of reference. Like you, for example.
Valid points here. Thanks for the update!! 👍
@sergelecluse0001: not valid points, unless you have been manipulated by pro-Ukrainian western media and analysts like Anders Puck Nielsen
Youre videos are always a great source of insight, thank you!
Nice tie!
It is not a tie, Ukraine will win😉
@@lobsterboy4436 😆😅🤣😂 Dream on.
@@jackofswords7Given proper support, Ukraine would have one. They still will win, if given proper support - I am informed that the europeans are now scared enough to ramp up aid. They are bigger idiots than the US.
@@jackofswords7 Oh hi ivan. Long time no see.
I agree, nice tie! It's a nice pattern and the color goes well with the shirt.
Another awesome video, thank you.
Vielen Dank, lieber Anders! Really helpful video. I was listening up especially when you explained the russian war aims.
Please keep up the good work!
Mange tak!
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
This is the US war against Russia. Call a spade a spade
@@evgeniya7853 вонючка
Of course Russia is playing the long game. When you've lost the short game then the long game is the only game available.
And he will lose the long game also. People of Ukraine want nothing of Putin. Absolutely nothing.
@@brianrasmussen2956Russia also don't want anything from Ukrainian . Ukrainian should just leave Ukraine.
@@rmgeneral8554 🤡🤣
@@rmgeneral8554
Russia got 4 mln people + the land and the resistance there is = to zero.
Only the western part would resist.
@@brianrasmussen2956 Actually about 25% at least do want close relations with Russia. They mostly live in the East and South. Russia will take these regions, which have zero to do with any historic 'Ukraine'.
Good stuff Anders. Thanks!
very clear and informative, as each time
Thank you, Anders Puck Nielsen, for your analysis, very much appreciated.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
😢 Wonderful cope chanel
A bit optimistic to say that long term prospects favour Ukraine, no? Russia running out of stored equipment will likely stall their ability to advance, but in a static attritional fight they would seem to have an advantage due to higher internal production of equipment and a stronger economy allowing them to finance the battle "out of pocket" vs Ukraine requiring external aid or financing.
I think he implied that Europe would pull its fingers and provide a constant reliable source of military aid to Ukraine.
Problem is that if China does the same, we essentially get nowhere.
@@yyyy-uv3po You're not going to get anywhere anyway
Stored equipment, haha.
Thanks for this perspective. I watch lots of posts by and about Ukraine. These were some different ideas.
You don’t have to wait for them to get more weapons. Once the Ukranians knew more was coming, they could stop rationing what munitions they have. You saw an immediate step up in Ukrainian offensive actions the day after the bill was signed.
That bill surprised Putin that was good!!!!!
I saw an immediate retreat. The Ukrainian military leader just announced it.
@@masterlightjames950 …And a bunch of missile strikes on refineries. The US is not sending MEN. Just missiles, shells and some systems. The Ukrainian tactics are planned to conserve their men. They have retreated a dozen times in the past year, and then decimated the Russians that fill that void. You would think the Russians would figure that out… but they haven’t. Their losses are still double to triple Ukrainian losses. Russia’s military is a Potemkin village.
"Ukrainian offensive actions" where are you getting your news? Russia is advancing faster now that at any time after the first month of the war.
Where is that on CNN or BBC ?
Always a useful, informative and balanced approach. Thanks 🙏 so much. SLAVA UKRAINI!! ❤️🙏🇬🇧🇬🇧🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇬🇧🇬🇧🙏❤️
slava urine!
@blenderoffender … oh dear. 😢 Spelling problems? Or is autocorrect being a bitch? SLAVA UKRAINI!!!
@@blenderoffender9004 … oh dear 😢. Spelling difficulties? Or is autocorrect being a bitch? SLAVA UKRAINI!!
@@mickigarvey7608 I don't do nazi slogans
Anders, does the West have anything to counter the continuous use of Glide Bombs?
The West must increase defense budget and production, creating work places in our countries and not in China.
Their support of Russia gives us another reason to pull out of China.
There are other reasons. Certainly, helping China is the biggest bothersome thing for me. The intellectual theft was a valid reason, as well. I also thought that the quality cheating was another valid reason.... The coupling of the army with industry is another valid reason. I don't think that decoupling with China because they are taking our jobs is valid, unless they are making people work in unsafe conditions and not paying them enough, since this is usually the case here in the US, and this gets very fuzzy. Plus, we want to lift everyone out of poverty. Also, isolationist countries always fall hopelessly behind in technology and into poverty. China cheating with free shipping and other trade advantages is a valid reason to decouple. Just because they make less doesn't mean that they can't buy just as much as we can, with less money.
@@dennisgarber Thank You for commenting Dennis.
@@dennisgarber As an authoritarian state oppressing minorities like uyghurs, there is always the possibility of workers being forced into un(der)paid work in unsafe conditions. But I don't enough to say if or how much that's a thing in every field of industry.
@@pRahvi0 Good point and good reason. Now, were I president Trump, I would use this Russian help as leverage against them, after I fully divested my self in russian money, per the Constitution's Foreign Emoluments clause, which he had waived in his first term. (how the f can you waive the Constitution of the Land?)
Thank you
Great analysis!
🇺🇦🙏👏
By far the most in depth, intelligent assessment of the war from all the channels I know. Thanks!
I'm guessing you don't watch The Duran or Judging Freedom.
The average Russian wage is $400 but to coerce someone to fight in Ukraine, MOD has to pay them $2000 a month, 5* median income.
This creates a shortage of labor in the real economy which causes inflation in wages and the cost of consumer goods.
This is how Russia's war moblization has harmed Russia itself.
The average wage is above $600. Cost of consumer goods in Russia are still some of the lowest in the world. Despite predictions, Russia's economy has improved and is estimated to continue to grow faster than western countries many of which have entered a recession. That's not to say that your point is false. There is a shortage of labour but it's effects are miniscule. Higher wages are attracting expatriates and foreigners to come work in Russia.
so epic. The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 - less than half of the Russian monthly output.
then with the collapse of the Russian economy, which was promised 2 years ago, it never came? Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
@@leetster6303 The "growth" in Russian economy is purely artificial. Putin has made an extreme effort to mitigate the effects of the sanctions trying to ride the wave. In some months that bill will have to be payed. So what will happen then? The decline is happening, it might no be visible to normal people, but it decimates Russian economy if they don't do something different than they are today.
Check facts countries going into recession russian ain't even near it
with the bleakness of the Russian long term strategic plan. I wish the us would build an Iron dome like air defense with in Ukraine. as an American I think it is vital we support Ukraine. thank you as always for your amazing analysis
Half of the population of Ukraine absolutely does not care about your wishes about their Homeland. They don't need American INTERVENTION
HAHAHHAHA pay taxes and stf
Excellent assessment
Sharp analysis, Anders. Thanks for sharing your expertise!
Your analysis is wonderful. Thank you as always for sharing your insights.
Kirill Budanov said that the next Two months will be difficult, but there will be no Armageddon. According to Russian analyste Michael Nucki in his new UA-cam vidéo, the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing a spécial opération on the Crimean bridge in the near future.
Not the Crimean bridge again, that old trout has had its day, if blowing a bridge could end a war there wouldn't be any war, Russia has escalatory dominance, Ukraine never stood a chance, the Pentagon knew this and tried to talk Biden Neuland excetra out of it but they wouldn't listen now Ukraine is the fall guy, theyll try to keep some semblance of UKraine still fighting up to the election then it will be all over to Ukraines cost im afraid.
There is no such analyst in Russia
that bridge is coming down at one point or another.
At your ignorance you can aswel just listen to Ghos of Kiev.
So much death already, and so much more to come just because of 1 guy's ego. Sad.
Unfortunately it's way more than one mans ego. While I completely agree that Putins ego is the catalyst of the Russian fascism, he wouldn't be able to do the things that Russia is doing without massive support among the military leadership, industry and business leaders and not least in the Russian population.
Yes, Zelensky's ego ans his doggish loyalty to that super senior citizen sitting across the Atlantic
Agree with your assessment. TY
Thank You Anders for once again giving a brilliant summary of where we are at ..,.. the West had it's opportunity and wasted it alongside tens of thousands of lives..,..Slava Ukraine
The western indecisiveness has wasted almost as many opportunities as Russian incompetence has created.
🙏🕊🌻🔱 Excellent Analysis! Ukraine is Stronger with ATACMS, GLSDB, SCALP EG and Storm Shadow! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! The World Needs to Stand Unwaveringly Committed with Ukraine's Quest for Democracy and Retribution! 🔱🌻🕊🙏
Yea, Ukraine is so democratic, they don't even need elections any more.
GLDSB proved useless against EW but sure😂😂😂
Very insightful, as always. Thanks Anders
You have good videos, and I often but not always agree with you, my biggest disagreement was in the video where you talked about Finnish Lapland as a weakly defended area, because in reality the defense of Finnish Lapland is better than the defense of the Baltic countries combined'. and I say this as a Finnish reservist with experience myself about the defense of Lapland and the arrangements that are there. But in general, I have been of almost the same opinion, but the ammunition situation in Ukraine will improve quickly, the first of the Czech initiative ammunition will start flowing into Ukraine next week, as well as the first parts of the US support package...one thing that all western countries must intervene is the Russian propaganda and disinformation machine, sharing it should be made illegal and punishable, it cannot and should not be justified by freedom of speech because it is literally the false propaganda of the enemy, Russia itself has declared itself the enemy of the entire collective West
Well said welcome aboard NATO
And what organ is gonna judge what is and what isn't rus propaganda? How can we be sure it won't be abused to control or censor critics in general and not just the ones who propagate those lies?
It's a slippery slope isn't it?
@@puraLusa well, at least you are relatively clearly, if not a direct troll, then at least a useful idiot, I have seen your comments in videos of several different channels, and almost all of them have been direct repetitions of the Kremlin's points. In Finland and Sweden, even in primary schools these days, from elementary school onwards, classes on the topic "how to recognize Russian propaganda" are organized, I recommend other countries to follow suit. your own comments, at least to a large extent, fulfill the hallmarks perfectly, because you immediately took a stand on the issue of freedom of speech, in Finland there is a saying"that dog is barking that was hit by a block of wood" your comment is a great example of how the old sayings are true, because whether that disinformation was shared due to stupidity or malice should not matter, but the fact that it is shared at all, it must be stopped, and preventing the spread of enemy propaganda is not interfering with anyone's freedoms, unless you support a rogue state and their views, then it doesn't even matter to you effect so how is it?
@@Finnishguy777 so, u are the ultimate judge of peoples position.
U just made my case. Not only I'm pro-ukraine, I've been steadily placing 300 euros monthly to the cause which is a lot for a citizen of a poor country like me. By now, I would have a new car and where I live there isn't a public transport alternative, so yes, I've abdicated basic confort for ukraine.
But u very fast named me a rus bot - this phenomenon is called witch hunt and it's outcome is inocent being attacked. Something u just did.
Makes one wonder how easily people defend fascism to combat fascism 🤔.
In my opinion, even if some NATO countries decide to send troops and airforce to support Ukraine, Russia will win this one, Right now Both sides fight with o hand tied behind to not escalate the war, but Russia has bigger hand... And when i compare Russian army today and Russian army 2022 there is huge diffirence...
9:46. Somehow, this man has to bring these two contradictory issues together: 1) Ukraine has a man power shortage and 2) a long war of attrition works in Ukraines favour. Now, I’m not really sure how the side with less stuff, which is the same side that is loosing more stuff, is winning a war of attrition.
Last gasp of the "narrative".
Ukraine is not losing more stuff, simple as.
@@kjj26k Yes. The army with less weapons, no air superiority that is shooting less ammunition IS LOSING LESS STUFF. Get your head out of your propaganda space and look at reality.
Your mentality compares to that of the United States of America during the Vietnam War...the United States of America thought at that time that it just had to prolonged the war,,,because they had the money,,manpower,,weaponry,,technology,,,expertise etc to literally destroy Vietnam....si they didn't mind prolonging the war ..
The result of the war showed that was very stupid thinking !!!
The United States of America is making the same mistake in Ukraine right now !!!
Because,,,,unlike Vietnam,,,Russia has the most nuclear weapons,,,the most powerful,,deadly,,and sophisticated also !!!
It is the only country in the world that has the capacity to destroy the American fleet...with all its aircraft carriers !!!
No other country in the world has that capacity !!!
The Chinese can't do it,,the Indians can't do it ..only Russia can do it !!!
@@kjj26k They don't have all that much stuff left to lose, as it's already been pounded into a smoldering pile of junk.
As always, very much appreciated. Thanks for clear explanation and your insight.
Anders has been saying Russian military is "at a peak right now" for the past 2 years
Could you provide videos titles and time-stamps ?
@@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 Anders has a ton of videos where he says over and over that Russia is running out of men and equipment (ie see title below). Meanwhile NATO just announced that Russia has more men and bombs now than they did at the start of the war - but Anders keeps saying Russia is running out of men / equipment even in the the video from today ua-cam.com/video/s8mTWexL8bs/v-deo.html
the long term trends favor Russia. the truth is Russia is far out producing the US, which has exported its manufacturing capacity.
Europe will be at level with russia next year . Russias issues has just started…. The one there is winning here is China, they will get north east manchuria back after 200 years
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo russia isn't outproducing USA with like 1/100 of military budget, and US is just ONE country, it's very obvious putin isn't immortal, and the only question we have is if he will fight to the last russian, or keel over while a few of them still remain.
Yes, and the more the West supplies, the more China supplies to Russia!
And they have exported those industries to nations like China and India which are in BRICKS and are nations with little interest in seeing America maintain its economic hegemony. It’s all good though, those politicians got paid really well to sell out their country so they may be able to ride the fallout. Sucks to be everyone else though 🤔
Where do you get this bullshit? We produce more manufactured goods than any other economy, still.
I’m with you on this , Russia does not seem to be fighting the war as if it’s in for the long run.
So many bodies thrown into the grinder taken from their industrial base.
What are you drinking?
@@dshaw8356
Logic, you should try it, feels better than alcohol or fear.
They relied on blitz in 2022, and since then, rely on fairy coming and blocking all aid to Ukraine, now the entire population of russia is praying that tRump will overthrow US government and save them, I AM NOT KIDDING, if you see russian chats, they legitimately thought USA will change its foreign policy and were surprised that aid got through. Their entire nation's existence depends on a foreign politician forcing America to do a 180 in its ways... Seriously.
@@kjj26k Thanks, being on drugs is not good for your health, mental in particular )
How does a long game favor anyone but Russia in this war? Ukraine doesn't have the population to support a war of attrition and America has an absolutely terrible track record of supporting its allies. Russia is one of the largest resource producers in the world and being forced into an alliance with the greatest industrial power. NATO can't supply Ukraine, Israel and defend Taiwan simultaneously. The best Ukraine can hope for is support until the next election then everything will go towards and Israel/Iran war and defending Taiwan and Ukraine will be abandoned like Afghanistan or the South Vietnamese.
I dont carw who says what but ukraine will never win this war ever!
It looks you don't care what you say yourself.
Good analysis - I subscribed.
Its virtually impossible to know what is going on with the ukranian military. We have no idea how significant their casualties are, or what their equipment losses are. Ukraine, given its population should be able to put 2 - 3 million men into the field. So we dont actually know what is going on. All we have is guesses, and a portion of those will be proven to be wrong
In a war you don't tell everything. Why help the enemy?
You are 100% correct sir. But it renders everything into pure speculation
There's open source tracking of UA losses too. Russians will post footage whenever they can. Drone footage shows vehicle wrecks, by using dating and geolocation you can find wrecks that were not on that place in previous videos.
Ukraine casualties are 31,000 Zelensky said and Ukranian MOD posting over 500,000 Russians killed I mean it kinda makes sense if you watch Marvel movies and believe that World Peace can be done
Those are the guidelines that 90% of Baboons are trusting sk there you go ….
Q: We have no idea how significant their casualties are, or what their equipment losses are...
A: Quite the opposite, OSINT gives an idea of Ukrainian losses comparing with Muscovite ones, which is 1:6 for now. And it also gives an idea of how much the Ukrainians are outnumbered and outgunned by the Muscovites.
“Russia won’t have enough equipment and they will run out of money…. The long term trend favors Ukraine”. This man is a propaganda talking head. Sad.
yeah, people don't like to understand this
No, it’s just the facts
@@nobodyherepal3292
Facts?
What world are you from?
@@robkit6681 the world where Russia is running around with tanks from the 50s (and now apparently building sheds on top of them), where their conscripts are constantly going into the battle with older obsolete gear, where the Russians STILL don’t have air supremacy almost 3 years into a major conventional war with a country 1/10th their own size, and one where the Russians have lost most of their Black Sea fleet in a land war to a country with no navy.
So, I live in reality.
@@nobodyherepal3292
Yeah sure
Thanks for your great videos. 🇦🇺👴🏻
Russia will no doubt get better shovels and continue to gain territory.
"There is slim chance of Russia's success in 2024" - I better frame it. That long ramble about Russia not being able into the long game did not ooze with confidence.
On paper it looks like a reasonable stance though.
2023 was a favorable stalemate for Ukraine, and it didn't cost much to the West.
Whereas the other side is quickly burning through its cash and its soviet equipment.
All we had to do was to keep this flow for a few more years.
😂😂
you are listening to a propaganda piece.
@@yyyy-uv3po the problem with that is that ukraine will lose its military manpower first long before russia loses all its tanks.
@@yyyy-uv3po I always find russian proverbs to be the window into their soul. So they are saying "While the fat one dries, the thin one dies". I guess what I think that means is Uke doesn't have enough men to outlast Russia. And the West doesn't have enough resources nor the will to feed and arm 30 million people forever. Simple math. It worked in 1942 it will work this time.
I think your analysis is correct. Thank you
You are wishful thinking
Saying 'Ukraine's current manpower shortages' makes it sound as if this is a temporary problem that will get better, but it won't it will get worse. I think you need to address this directly because I think it's Ukraine's greatest problem
They have mobilized. So... It kind of is.
It really depends on how doctrine shifts as drones become more and more impactful. If we see the operator list drones or one drone operator can service squadron of drones, manpower becomes much less of an issue.
@@Giganfan2k1 The Ukrainians have lost most of their well trained soldiers, if you keep up withat's happening on the frontline you'll see that Ukraines soldiers are starting to retreat without orders and the whole situation is becoming more and more chaotic, look out for mass surrenders in the next few days. Drones are useful but they cant replace manpower artillery and FABs, very sad but im afraid Ukraine is very near the end.
Let's meet back here in a few days and see if you're right komrade 😂 @@tedstewart114
@@tedstewart114 Your defeatism reeks of Kremlin talking points. In case you're not a ru supporter, check yourself. And chin up. Ukraine will win... In case you are, enjoy your potato.
Ukraine has not really mobilized yet, they have made attempts but have had massive issues , they also need to lower the age from 27 to 18 like all other western nations. They have the manpower they just need to conscript them and stop the corruption which they claim they have.
Anders should comment about what Russia is doing now on the Avdivka front instead of what Russia would do when Ukraine gets more wonder weapons.
But Russia is doing so little. It has so far accomplished less than Ukraine accomplished in its "failed" summer offensive (both lasting about the same amount of time).
@@cloudpoint0 Completely wrong. Is it dishonesty, or ignorancy ?
Russia is advancing and in front of victorious Russian panzer there is a lot of Ukrainians running.
@@DdiafwlL
I added up the square km provided by the DeepStateMAP after Avdiivka was captured. Russia still has a long way to go to catch up with Ukraine's summer offensive gains. Don't be so naive. Do some research before posting.
@@tomk3732
I also heard in the news today that Ukrainians are running - towards the Russian excuses for soldiers. Easy pickings for them I guess.
Have you noticed how Russian casualty figures are jumping to new highs lately? Their tiny advances are coming at a huge cost. How do Russians cope with two years of major territory losses and just occasional minor territory gains?
As always, excellent analysis and presentation Anders.
„The long term trend favours Ukraine“ ?
How so? Looking at ukr. demographics, its dependence on forigne aid, the loss of its industrial base and the sell out of its most fertile land to forgine investors, etc. , one might beg to differ.
Go fight yourself if the „long term future“ looks so rosy.
How is it wrong to say the Russian economy and Soviet inheritance is limited?
@@RobertMartin-ru2lx
And that favours Ukraine in the long term? A country that never left „the wild 90‘s“. Never puttet a leash on its Oligarch class and ultimately gave up its independence in 2014. Remember Vic Nudelman‘s „Yatz is the man.“
Now lets talk demographics…
No war -> no Shengen. Those who left wint return
@@asscandy9082 Yes. Russia has a far larger oligarchy correct?
Demographics are very similar, and it's certainly true that both countries have more blood to spare.
He is a fool don`t take him to serious. The scary thing is i belive our elite make much of their desitions based on crap like this.
Problem is: the military aid is only one piece of the puzzle. The other piece is mobilization of 300K extra soldiers and that has not happened so those weapons won't completely stop Russia.
It's happening. Since a week ago about, a lot of men are being recruited. I can confirm this (I'm in Kyiv).
@@youuuuuuuuuuutubeshame for the families of these guys as they won’t be alive very long.
Why are Ukrainians fighting for western politicians and specifically the yanks who you can’t trust.
500k lol
@@youuuuuuuuuuutube too little, too late just like the West's weapon supplies.
Very interesting and clear
It kind of bugs me people saying "Russia is playing the long game" as if they had slick short term option. Like "Yea we could have gone for the cool blitzkrieg option, but we chose to run a WW1 reenactment instead". The statement implies agency on the part of Russia, but what agency do they really have in the strategic game?
* Endure the long game
* Nuclear roulette
* Withdraw
Something like that?
Simple, they want to grind down the Ukrainian military and humiliate Nato, seems to be going to plan as far as i can see, once they take Odessa they might talk.
They can end the war tmrw if they really wanted to but it would leave Russia really fucking vulnerable
Good point.
What is more bugging is russia is so weak it only becomes a threat when zelesnky needs more money
Well said.
What is actually happening is that the Russian production is already ramped up, they are capable of refurbishing and producing weapons at a rate higher than they are losing it ... I do not see why this is the peak and why in a few years they would run out ... China, Iran and North Korea are supplying them but they are already building this more not depending on these imports solely ... the opposite is true for Ukraine, its manufacturing capacity is down right now it is losing its energy generating capacity and all of its factories are in missile range it cannot build new equipment what you said about running out of the former Soviet stockpile happened, even with all former Eastern European stocks depleted. What is arriving now, MRAPs, Humvees, Javelins and Stingers, no Abrams tanks in the package, this will not stabilize the front, Stingers are short range, the Russian aviation is dropping the FABs well outside this range ... this just prolongs the war kills more Ukrainians for nothing the war will end the same way ... just maybe a bit later with more deaths.
Unfortunately I think your analysis is largely correct.
Thanks for your excellent work. ❤
Thanks Anders.
What I don't understand is why Ukraine isn't targeting the substations that supply electricity for the rail network inside Russia. Two thirds of the freight is powered by overhead electricity. One substation can be easily fixed but take out a bunch of transformers and they will have a hard time replacing them quickly.
They've been concentrating on oil refiineries, and densely populated civilian areas in Donetsk, Belgorod instead.
Transformers are not so difficult to replace, which I understand is why Russia targeted Ukraine transformers last year, but now have been forced to up the damage
@@legrandfromage6450 Well. If your enemy hides their troops inside towns, then civilians will be hit. Same as for the Ukrainians.
Because it’s impossible for drones to cause any damage to a power plant, and the Zelensky regime doesn’t have anything more serious for attacks inside Russia? Haven't thought about it, idiot?
I had the same thought.
Excellent analysis
Thank you Anders for your videos
Apart from strategic reports of USA and GB we need such reports here.
Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪
American equipment just arrived to Moscow yesterday, but there's a caveat 😀
Ha ha, good one Ivan. Here's your 50 rubles!
@@siriusmain1763 happy victory day, comrade 🤜🏻
Detached observation and analysis. What a relief.
I think this analysis is solid.
Apart from the fact (look back at his old videos) he has never got anything right. Compare him to Brian at the new Atlas, who has been bang on from the start. Anders sounds convincing but compared to Brian he is seriously out of his depth.
Look at his background. His income is funded by NATO money. He's been mostly wrong about everything because he's just spewing propaganda. He probably doesn't believe most of what he says.
He's NATO funded...
He doesn't seem at all fazed or concerened about the rapidly deteriorating situation for the VSU, Ill give him that.
What weapons? There are no reports of any sizeable munitions or weapons being delivered.
The aid package was basically an order for restocking depleted US stores already delivered to Ukraine.
Or am I missing something here?
Tat's the reality but people don't bother looking at the detail unfortunately
It resets the presidential drawdown authority since the credit has been paid off. Now Biden can give orders for presidential drawdowns again.
Yes you are missing something. Presidential drawdown authority. This has now been paid off. It is free to proceed.
As Perun just discussed today, there are billions of dollars of new Presidential Drawdown authority to send existing stocks of munitions to Ukraine. Indeed, more ATACMS have already been sent, and it won't surprise me if there were shipping containers of 155 mm artillery ammunition prepositioned in Poland poised to be driven across the border. It is true, however, that a lot of the aid will go to replenish the stocks of ammunition that America is allowed to give away, as well as expanding existing production capacity for those munitions.
@@kemarisite Bots will not recognise eloquent answers like that. They will keep on pretending to be neutral observers, spreading their FUD
Just found your channel. Definitely will be watching more. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇺🇦
The long term trend favours Ukraine? Hmm... doubtful, mate.
Care to share your background and ideas ?
@@ABCBCNMthey can’t even mobilize 500,000 that they are looking for this year, let alone other 2-3 years. Ukraine is falling apart it doesn’t have the personnel to support that type of long war.
They will just continue to win. Thats because ukraine's issues are not with bullets but air defense and morale and man power
Cause Tuvan alcoholics are full of fighting spirit? Does not sound plausible.
Thank you very much for your videos. They bring clarity in the middle of the fog of war
Anders works for the Royal Danish Defense College which states on their website "we contribute to the development of NATO doctrine and research projects"
Western forces could go in with an air defense mission and guard the flanks for Ukraine. That could free up tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops as well as their weapons and ammunition. By patrolling the Black Sea coast, the borders with Transnistria, and Belarus for Ukraine.
h/t article I saw at Foreign Affairs
Then nato troops will be a target. Then what?
@ujenix1 Not necessarily, it's a normal response to a conflict of this kind. It would surely boost the morale. Putin is brittle. Let them see that their invasion is unwinnable.
@@eddiemerten3381 LOL. "Putin is brittle". So NATO soldiers cross into Ukraine and Russia just hits them with Iskandars. What then? WWIII? Or NATO backs down. Russia isn't going to back down so escalation either means WWIII or NATO backs down. You really haven't thought this through have you?
No they cannot. War could spread to Asia and NATO would loose it.
Wow. If you haven't realized the repercussions if that happened, I'd have to say that you have a very shortsighted viewpoint. It's nonsense, at best.
I'm in Kyiv right now and I can confirm that people are being hired on the street, often in the underground of metro stations (just before the exits), but not only. For that reason, a lot of men decide to walk on foot (where it's possible to "clear the path"), and also decided to live "za misto", so, like the suburbs.
8:45 That's what Tucker Carlson thinks lol, that Russia WILL win whatever happens, but actually indeed if Ukraine keeps getting support, then Russia is going to lose the war of attrition because they will run out of money.
Run out of money how?😂
Did you not listen to the video at the start?
@@masterlightjames950 Do you understand Russian economics? It doesn't seem so.
Whatever, don't get me wrong,both Russia and Ukraine made big mistakes, Ukraine,for breaking the 014 deal signed by both country's,to respect citizens who wanted to remain Russian,while living in the Dondas region,but Ukrainian Nazis Azov bridge,kept bombing the area with the blessings of the USA puppet, Zelinsky,who by the way,is also a dictator,on the same scale as Putin,
Arresting his political opponents, shutting down the media,only allowing, Pro Joe and zelensky reporting,
And😂seeing young Ukrainian male's, stopped from crossing into neighbouring countries to dodge getting thrown into the force's,while they starve while Zelensky gets Rich on western money's,and never seen on the war front, Only with his begging bowl at the UN,or in Europe,grow some ball's Zeny grab a gun and go to the warfront,and fight,not grab a plane and flight 😅
😂😂😂 you not in Ukraine or else they would of had took your ass to the front line the Russians taking over town by town like a dominoe effect
What Anders fails to understand is that money is not the same as equipment and production capabilities. You do not win an artillery war when you lack artillery grenades. Ukraine is losing, and by proxy so is NATO.
Ukraine is far from loosing, i mean feel free to look at the development of the war map as a whole. But you are right, Ukraine can't keep fighting without steady supply of means to fight with. West should stop screwing around and start sending modern systems to Ukraine, that would fix the production issues. F-16 will help a lot as it enables West to send all sorts of missiles to Ukraine and Ukraine can also use them, which is something they couldn't with their Migs. This as an one example.
Putin " All Russian bots must report to the frontline "
Loser talk!
@HauntedHistoryChannel Loser talk!
@HauntedHistoryChannel Your a loser!
@HauntedHistoryChannel I think they are they are already talking about Alaska next t
It seems delusional to expect Ukraine to subscribe to a long-term war. There are no people to fight the long war. The "manpower shortage" is not merely a weakness. It is an Achilles heel, which makes the whole "steady supply of weapons" versus Russians past the peak conjecture bitterly moot.
"Delusional" is a good way to describe a lot of the Western commentary on this war.
And on top of that, it looks like a relatively small % of Ukrainian men of fighting age are actually willing to fight in this existential war.
I wonder what % of able men are in their military?
If it's a small %, what hope can there possibly be?
@@legrandfromage6450 I think gaslighting might be a better way of explaining it. Most of the people with the experience and the hard numbers know which way the war was going to go short of some way of convincing Russia to stop. So it's basically propaganda to maintain morale and international support because as soon as the conventional wisdom becomes a Ukrainian loss much of the support dries up and instead we get a push for a diplomatic end to the conflict---which is what should have happened years ago.
@@jlpowell51 Wrong. I think you'll find the people with the experience are saying take the gloves off & take it to Russian soil with everything they have.
@@RocketPropelledWombat With everything they have? What is that they have that they're not using?
It's pretty obvious what Russia has and isn't using but would use if pushed hard enough.