More Signals For An OZ Rate Hike Incoming?
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- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- The New Deputy Governor at the RBA said last week, that when it comes to a rate decision, they look at many different measures, apart from the recently released monthly series which showed a lift to 4% last time around in May.
So now, in May, so before any tax cuts or other Government help has hit, Australian retail sales rose by more than expected with spending largely driven by discounts in the face of elevated borrowing costs, an outcome that further strengthens the case for an interest rate hike this year.
As a result, yields on policy-sensitive two-year bonds rose to 4.289% as rates traders boosted the odds for an interest rate hike this year. Stocks pared gains, with the ASX 200 closing still in the green, at 7,739.90.
Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in May 2024, according to seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), making it the biggest increase in four months, The outcome, which was double the pace that analysts forecast, follows a 0.1% gain in April and a 0.4 per cent fall in March 2024.
We should highlight that with population growth of around 600,000 in the past year, and inflation running circa 4%, we should absolutely be expecting to see retail turnover lifting, as people pay more the things they buy, and more people buy them.
All up, to me while there is a better tone to this numbers, many consumers remain under intense pressure, while strong population growth is working its “magic” in cushioning retailers from the worst impacts and are allowing them to retain and build margin. Other data suggests more vehicle sales slowed into the financial year end. The tax cuts might well given a further boost to sales, but potentially also to inflation.
The ASX Rate tracker is now seeing a high of 4.47% in November, and back to 4.35% in June next year. The bottom line is I think markets are correct in reading this as a reinforcing sign that rates may need to go higher to snuff out inflation. But is not definitive, yet as there is more data water to go under the bridge.
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A bit late. Should hv hiked 3 months ago
Only 3 months ago 🤦, the hikes should have continued when they started hiking
Doing us slowly.
The real-estate industry and the media dictates when rates rise and fall.
ASIC just dirtied its pants today! JA will be happy!
Dead Right!!!
Rate cuts by end of 2023….
🤣
Inshallah
Now that everyone got that $1 pay rise, should be able to handle anything that comes there way.
Suppliers don’t cut prices when costs go up
The more time goes on, the more convinced that “the recession we have to have” Paul Keating ex Federal Treasurer AUSTRALIA Nov 1990 is again necessary.
The intervention is what concerns me, not the actual recession.
Time and time again government intervention gets it wrong, that’s my fear.
“Helicopter money”, QE (Quantitive Easing), call it what you will.
I agree that this sounds nuts-it is. The ultra low interest rate period for so long was less than ideal.
@@HML-it7teYep, I would say it was insanity except that I know it was planned and orchestrated from influences outside of our country for an agenda we did not agree to.
Australia is in recession *already* dude..
My comments seem to be censored !
We don’t have recessions anymore, we have CRISIS,
Not according to what old mate leith van osland wrote today. He says rates will stay paused. Do you honestly think prices will fall here, never!
Indeed, LVO has been calling it lower, we will see as the data arrives... (and how independent the RBA really is)!
@@jessekoch3480 RBA waiting for FED to cut. Meanwhile inflation and housing prices keep going up
@@jessekoch3480 RBA waiting for FED to cut. Meanwhile inflation and housing prices keep going up
Very good presentation thank you compulsory listening
So nice of you
They did say rates were going back up in 2024 😂
At least someone is talking some sence.
Interest rates have to increase and by more than the 0.25% at a time the gentle skipping down the path doesn't cut the mustard. At the rate we are going its short term gain for long term pain
Just raise the interest rates already we are already suffering 😅
Why is no one asking how much the cost of packaging is impacting the increase in prices
Raising rates? are u kidding me! Wrong. Victoria is already in recession and being one of largest state economies - if the RBA hikes, Victoria will drag the entire economy into the doldrums with it.... the RBA would be foolish to hike. They've got to get down to Vic and wake up! Its a basket case! Want the RBA to hike? You've got to be joking! Be careful what you wish for.... Just MO
Aus treasuries suggest higher.
🤫 landlords hint: stopping buying another 🏡 every 6 months or they w ill keep going until you have to have your primary residence liquidated.....
@@andrewmackenzie325 So what? they're wrong too... Victoria is a complete basket case (and is a significant part of the Australian economy). My guess is NSW isn't far behind - so there you have more than 50% of the Australian economy ...rates are coming DOWN... and fast....not going up.. These politicians and bureaucrats have got to get out of Canberra and visit the Southern states. they are really struggling. Why? they are 95% services....and nobody is spending. What are people cutting back on? SERVICES! . Anybody would be CRAZY to fix their mortgages or get a car loan loan now.. Utterly mad...We are in recession NOW ... All this rate rise talk is just scaremongering jawboning... Rates are coming down.. Just MO!!!
@@leonie563 that is the rba's plan , why people can not see this
@@grizzz6884 don't tell anyone it's fun watching them get drunk when the party has finished
I don't know anyone who is planning on spending their tax cuts on discretionary spending. I'd consider our household to be doing well, no mortgage, double income, but our tax cuts of 7k are already consumed by rising costs in rates, food, and insurance.
cost of living killing consumption.....imagine my shock....
Hello Martin 🙂
HI
Of course its going to be spent lol, what sort of a stupid question is that??
Gotta get inflation down to ZERO ... 😊🇦🇺
I don't know whether YT or this channel
yet I have experienced censorship
Not me...
It's YT. The most innocuous comments can get the chop if the algorithm decides so.
Vote one nation
Martin I was watching latest in the interest of the people video couldn't post and checked notifications showed as deleted about an hour after it was posted.
Its back now! ua-cam.com/video/uF8Sviw7-TU/v-deo.html
@@WalkTheWorldDFA Thank you Martin and well done to the both of you in all your efforts corruption busting in the interest of the people.