I don’t see mortgage rates dropping very much anytime soon. And would be very surprised if they fall below 6.5% by the end of the year. And if they do that would mean that the economy would be struggling, mitigating demand. In many markets, especially in the South, buyers and sellers are in a standoff. My guess is that sellers will relent first by dropping prices a bit. In other areas, fairly priced homes will sell. Homeowners that have owned for five years have substantial equity. Aging and other life circumstances will bring homes to the market. And these owners, many without mortgages, are not locked in. To me four million existing home sales per year is close to a floor. Households buy homes due to life circumstances. So we’ve been bouncing around on the floor the past two years, I don’t fundamentally see this changing. And multi-family supply continues to come online, limiting or even reducing rents, and thereby delaying home purchases by financially stretched young households. Mortgages aren’t moving much. Incomes will not surge. The moving factor in the home market will be declining or stagnating prices. Considering the soaring pandemic appreciation, this would not be a hardship for homeowners.
Basically, I just made my first $300,000 in crypto trading. years of grinding, pivoting and failure, ideas not working out multiple consecutive times, depression, anxiety... but oh man once I saw the balance was over 300,000 - it really made it clear that all those years were worth it and has paid off. Looking forward to achieving financial freedom soon. And by the way, awesome content, brother!
Can't share much here, I take guidance from ‘Evelyn Infurna’ a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
It is more economical to rent in majority of markets. In my city, yes there is a housing shortage, but they are building apartments at 5x the rate and it is a race to the bottom to get new leasees.
Housing shortage of 4 million homes? Where did you come up with that number? 4 million homes more than what we have now and we'd have more homes for sale than any time during the great financial crisis.
@@NotAvailableForSale Barring a drop in prices it will be that way for a while. The landlord has 2.5% mortgage. He can offer rents that are well below what you'd pay to own in this current environment. We can thank the Fed for screwing a generation of Americans out of housing.
I'm not sure how many displaced people from PacPalisades would move to Boise. More likely they will push prices up between San Diego and Santa Barbara. Some of these people might already have second homes to live in.
By my own crude calculation as a long-time Los Angeleno, I can't see more than 250 displaced families landing in Boise. That might move the needle a little bit for a few months, imo. So basically a micro covid.
I agree, most of the upward price distortions are going to be felt between SB and SD. Maybe a few oldsters throw in the towel and move out to Palm Springs.
Thanks Mike. Always appreciate your take.
I don’t see mortgage rates dropping very much anytime soon. And would be very surprised if they fall below 6.5% by the end of the year. And if they do that would mean that the economy would be struggling, mitigating demand.
In many markets, especially in the South, buyers and sellers are in a standoff. My guess is that sellers will relent first by dropping prices a bit. In other areas, fairly priced homes will sell. Homeowners that have owned for five years have substantial equity. Aging and other life circumstances will bring homes to the market. And these owners, many without mortgages, are not locked in.
To me four million existing home sales per year is close to a floor. Households buy homes due to life circumstances. So we’ve been bouncing around on the floor the past two years, I don’t fundamentally see this changing.
And multi-family supply continues to come online, limiting or even reducing rents, and thereby delaying home purchases by financially stretched young households. Mortgages aren’t moving much. Incomes will not surge. The moving factor in the home market will be declining or stagnating prices. Considering the soaring pandemic appreciation, this would not be a hardship for homeowners.
Nothing changes until affordability improves by 40%
i made a RE video last week on IG saying prices could stagnate or lower. i felt iffy but now more confident about my prediction after this report.
Basically, I just made my first $300,000 in crypto trading. years of grinding, pivoting and failure, ideas not working out multiple consecutive times, depression, anxiety... but oh man once I saw the balance was over 300,000 - it really made it clear that all those years were worth it and has paid off. Looking forward to achieving financial freedom soon. And by the way, awesome content, brother!
Absolutely. It's an exciting time to be in crypto. Strap in and enjoy the journey.
Congratulations, do you mind sharing how you did it...
Sound good, How do you do that?I'm interested, how do I go about getting started?
Can't share much here, I take guidance from ‘Evelyn Infurna’ a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
SHE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.
Logan must have finally listened to me about rates. 😂
Restricted inventory in LA County - Watching for the "Boom Towns" / migration this. may create. Sad state of affairs for all affected by the LA fires.
Dang sounds sort of bearish. But we have a housing shortage of 4 million homes?
It is more economical to rent in majority of markets. In my city, yes there is a housing shortage, but they are building apartments at 5x the rate and it is a race to the bottom to get new leasees.
@ I agree
Housing shortage of 4 million homes? Where did you come up with that number? 4 million homes more than what we have now and we'd have more homes for sale than any time during the great financial crisis.
@ i read it on the internet
@@NotAvailableForSale Barring a drop in prices it will be that way for a while. The landlord has 2.5% mortgage. He can offer rents that are well below what you'd pay to own in this current environment. We can thank the Fed for screwing a generation of Americans out of housing.
I'm not sure how many displaced people from PacPalisades would move to Boise. More likely they will push prices up between San Diego and Santa Barbara. Some of these people might already have second homes to live in.
Awwww, sorry! Looks like the party is over
By my own crude calculation as a long-time Los Angeleno, I can't see more than 250 displaced families landing in Boise. That might move the needle a little bit for a few months, imo. So basically a micro covid.
I agree, most of the upward price distortions are going to be felt between SB and SD. Maybe a few oldsters throw in the towel and move out to Palm Springs.
Rates will not stay at 7% for long
yes they will
So you think recession is around the corner then?
@@Zoooomanno
@@Zooooman no