You folks repeatedly say that Soviets copied Nazi technology heavily, but you never mention that Americans did the same and were one notch ahead in this copy business than the Soviets.
DF-16 is already quite behind. 10 year old technology. Cap I would rather you focus on quality than getting these out fast. I haven't seen a UA-camr covering Chinese missiles not talk about DF-17, DF-21, DF-26 and the YJ-21
When it comes to first strike, experience doesn’t apply. An overwhelming alpha strike with simultaneous blitz might preempt reinforcement once relief forces realize there’s no safe harbor for re-supply. With this in mind, it’s up to Taiwanese to have the porcupine defense fighting tooth-and-nail to stymie Chinese invaders long enough for relief forces to arrive. I fear the rescue time won’t be short enough to save them IFF the alpha strike goes according to plan.
Worth mentioning that those ballistic missiles can also be fired from submarines (obviously) but also from the 055 destroyers, and some can be air launched as well.
understanding the history and reason why the USA (and who else) is in the missile treaty and why it exists would have been a useful addition. great video, totally new news to me!
Hey Cappy! Thanks a lot for the info/video. Its greatly appreciated. I'm really writing this because I notice over the last few months you're not your usual chipper self. I truly hope you're OK and things in your life are not too difficult. Many times I watch as much for your humor as well as the info. (no pressure, lol) I just want you to know we like your content but it would be nothing without your shining smile. IF you're having struggles I pray things will work out well for you. Thank you for all the hard work you put into this channel.
Cappy these videos recently have been awesome and I feel like I have learned a lot. I really like the unbiased fog of war videos about Ukraine that show off the Russian victories as well because you only ever see positive news about the Ukrainian army which doesn’t always paint the whole picture.
@@wes11bravo now Ukraine is winning, but we have no idea what the Russians would do next. They could very well make a strong comeback during winter for all we know
Well at the moment Russia isn't getting many victories but yes people are too optimistic thinking Russia already lost, we have to send a little more weapon and overcome the winter, after that it will be much easier
he’s got the timeline wrong. Soviet Union retreated all the aid before the cultural revolution, during which Chinese missile program had the first major success.
If Russia intends to hit back before winter they need to move NOW. Very soon the wet autumn (Fall) will make movement impossible. Soon after the intense cold will stop everything. Rutted ground like concrete is impassable- if you can get your engines running. Troops will need the best winter equipment. All stuff Russia does not have. Ukraine will win in Kherson by simply laying siege mediaeval style. Right now they are digging in around the occupied areas. Probably waiting for those Russians to collapse for lack of winter equipment.
Thats the smart thing to do, its the same reasoning with Germanys(back in the Day) and Soviet Unions/Russias Obsession with Submarines. "No Chance to compete with the Enemys Surface Fleet, so even bother to try?"
Not just DF-16, DF-11, DF-15, DF-16, DF-20(equivalent to 9K720 Iskander, original DF-12), those are for Taiwan and possible for Japan, DF-17, DF-21D, DF-26B, those are for US, so called A2/AD.
Incredible videos, I found you from your Ukraine update videos from a week or so ago, you are pushed hard by the algorithm rn so just know your doing something right. Clicked thru your AD link just to show appreciation for such high quality content, please keep it up. Also you may have already done a video on this and I need to just find it but I feel like exploring why the marines got rid of its armor and what that means for the future of armored warfare
Love his videos too! And yes he does have one on why the marines ditched their tanks, probably searchable with some keywords. The gist is that the marines were getting to be a bit too much like an army 2.0, and the logistics/support associated with tanks didn't really fit into their traditional doctrine of highly mobile and amphibious assault. Twas a good video 👍🏻
The INF treaties were designed to prevent false positives. Remember when the US thought the USSR had launched an all-out pre-emptive nuclear strike because of a software mistake at NORAD? We were very close to launching real missiles and bombers armed with nuclear weapons. It's dangerous. Sandia Labs has a great video on the controls & safety features built into the US arsenal over the years through incidents like this, among other things. Another example is the US deciding to take the nuclear sharing program with NATO out of the hands of individual military commanders, especially foreign control of US nukes. In the 1950s, West Germany could've theoretically nuked someone if a relatively low level player like a Brigadier General decided it was the time. The US, UK, and France are the most responsible nuclear-armed nations by far in the way they control the use of them.
UK and France maybe, but not my country. Earlier on in the cold war we tried to keep our nukes in the air as often as possible do to an early lead in strategic weaponry the soviets had. We had pilots with nuclear payloads passing out in-flight, accidentally releasing their payloads over the continental US and allied territories like Greenland, and this happened an uncomfortable number of times. Fortunately, as far as I know, none of these were ever primed to blow in these incidents, although its believed one of those bombs is still lost within the ice and snow of Greenland to this day. Although our insistence on basing our nuclear weapons in other NATO states, I think is incredibly reckless. Once that strategic shortcoming was resolved, those flights ended. However, submarine based nuclear weaponry is probably the area in which all parties are somewhat irresponsible. The idea of putting such weapons onboard craft that can often end up cut off from communication, lead to some dire scenarios. Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov was in command of a sub during the Cuban Missile Crisis and prevented such a scenario from taking place, when tensions, mixed with a loss of communications, led many aboard his submarine to believe the worst. That man's cool head is why we're alive today, but its scary to think that its not a given that every submarine will be crewed with at least one person like him in a position to make such an important decision.
@@QueenMooSuko US have lost nuclear warheads near spain in the 70. Funny to see in newspaper some title like "USA finally find his nuclear weapons" like it was a lost car ^^.
Multiple Payload Reentry weapons are so terrifying. I’m glad to finally hear them mentioned. They’re essentially what has made all nuclear arms race advances remain at a cold stalemate, regardless of missile defense tech. The warheads (up to 6 typically) come down from low orbit at the speed of a meteor. Upon impact they have more individual destructive power than the bombs dropped on Japan. Considerably more. When we talk about ICBMs, this is what we are talking about. The only real defense against these weapon systems (which are employed by every nuclear armed nation) have to be used in space. The “Star Wars” program was that. The USA apparently has some interception systems on satellites that use small devices fitted with retro thrusters to swarm the reentry vehicle and destroy it before it is over top the target area and releases its black cones of biblical destruction. Once they are released, all bets are off.
Maybe if we humans stop using our respective militaries and tax money to find new ways to annihilate eachother, and instead spent the money on actually useful stuff (Jimmy’s voice) i-i-i-i mean c- -c-c-com oon
would you like to living in the world where nukes are flying under you heads? No weaponizing of space! The “Star Wars” program makes your dream come true
@@qwertyqwerty-zi6dr oh yeah Americans never escalate or spend more money on their military than like the next five countries behind it ti keeps its empire for their billionaires. Russia and China are Just refusing to bend the knee to American world hegemony. And we’ll see if the US is willing to accept this, or start ww3 over it. Ffs America cant even provide their own population with a decent and free health care system, yet every other modern nation managed? Id rather have a child or get a chronic disease in China ir Russia than the US. Amazing how the Americans in power convinced their own population that free healthcare is not a demand you should make if your government. Actually laughable. And their own people are committing terrorism aka mass murders with guns bought legally. Yet thats impossible to fix
also Mr, DF21 is the older version of carrier killer, the new DF26 with ultra high speed glider warhead, that is the new carrier killer, and with all respect you also missed DF4, DF5, DF5A/B ,DF31 ,DF41, and SLBM, all of those missiles can reach to US mainland with only DF4 being the exception(range of 8000Km, but it can reach Guam)
They spend more money shilling out to UA-camrs to plug their game than actually developing their game. Every UA-camr is sponsored by Raid Shadow Legends, yet I know exactly ZERO people who play it.
@@MrHav1k Its not that bad a game, apart from the constant pop ups wanting you to shell out RL money and horrendous odds of getting anything decent until you can beat at least NM clan boss. Ive never spent ANY rl money on this game, but still have some of the most sought after characters (not the infamous Lydia shown on the ad though, if you have never played Raid before, Lydia is pretty much THE endgame reward, once you have got her you have beaten the game and unless you are a big pvp arena fan you might as well delete it)
Great content. I'm not an expert but the argument I've heard is that the Chinese could overwhelm a carrier groups defenses with the sheer volume of inbound missiles. After seeing Russia's performance in Ukraine, there's a big unknown factor in terms of how much corruption impacts their actual combat power. I don't think it's safe to assume China will have the same issues though. Technologically it seems like missle and drone based weapon systems are getting cheaper and easier to produce. This will have profound impacts on how conflicts are fought in the future. Just like how aircraft carriers spelled the end of the battleship.
You're correct, China is a much much bigger industrial power. (Which is equivalent to the next 2nd 3rd 4th 5th combined and more while Russia today is only equivalent to their 5%) That will help how to think about how many crazy weapons and technology they have.
Each of these missiles is a hundred million a pop. A hundred or so, you are reaching the same cost as a carrier. That is also IF they work anywhere near intended. The first half is a ballistic missile, though hypersonic fast it locks on to location, not target and flies at a predictable trajectory. The glider that pops off is driven by momentum. IF it can lock on target and make turns, it loses speed for every turn not to mention it might have to hold on to that speed for a couple hundred miles between the initial break off of the ballistic missile.
When you were talking about the difficulty of transporting over and launching from off-road positions, all I could think about was the incredible success HIMARS.
@@onlyplaysveigar7241 yes himars show just how important missle vehicles are just 16 of them obliterated Russian logistics even tho China has worse quality missle systems having 1200 would be extremely useful
@@ChristoffelTensors Only 1 hour and you've been ratioed. Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth shut and let people think your an idiot rather than opening it and removing all doubt.
Why did you not talk about the DF-26 for long? The U.S. Naval fleet must worry about these... YJ-21 (Ship Launched Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile) DF-26 (Guam/Carrier Killer) DF-21 (Carrier Killer)
YJ-21 is a joke. Its easy picking from AEGIS system and it is barely classified as "manuverable". 2.5MOA at cruise speed and a predicable re-entry arc. They are just throwing there money down the toilet.
I agree I am really shocked. DF-16 is already quite behind. 10 year old technology. I haven't seen a UA-camr covering Chinese missiles not talk about DF-17, DF-21, DF-26 and the YJ-21
Just wanted to bump this. The only good news is that it's technically challenging to mass produce these things for a prolonged conflict. The bad news is and has always been that if you launch more than just a few at a nuclear capable nation, it's instant Apocalypse because that nation can't tell if the missiles are carrying nukes. Heck, if the CCP launched a few at Japan it might still be the end because they counterattack (most likely a conventional one) might leave them desperate enough to lob missiles at a nuclear capable nation (in this scenario the US).
Digital processing of satellite images has come a long way since then (practically real time) and scud launchers are smaller than some of the current Chinese ones.
@@LondonSteveLee Yea, you're probably right. DS seems like yesterday to me. It's the equivalent of 1960 tech vs 1990 tech. Then 1990 tech vs 2020 tech. Geez, I'm getting old...
Great video Cappy In Australia we have been concerned by their missile development for some time, but not much has been spoken about countering the threat.
No we havn't been afraid as only their long range Nuclear can reach Australia and JORN gives us days notice of a invading force for all these shorter range to hit us. Also you have no clue on what Australia is doing about it as is kept pretty secretive. but if search will find we are starting very big in Domestic ballistic missiles and rocket systems in Australia, And because of Ray Stalker and his scramjet technology we are going really big in Hypersonics. Robotic painting and sanding systems for Hypersonic missiles. Doemestic rocket fuels etc. Australias small population means our military is going big in AI drones and missiles. Well LNP were but knowing Labor past they will cut our military and destroy it all.
Ned yes I’m aware or JORN and anyone with half a brain knows that no one is going to invade Australia, just carry out activities to keep us out of the game. As for the rest of your comments - it’s all research. There is nothing concrete that can be deployed today. Finally as for your comments on the LNP yep we have handed over billions of dollars to foreign owned companies to provide equipment designed to fight a war in Europe and to counter insurgents. We still not have developed the infrastructure in northern Australia to sustain operations in our north! Our near neighbours can legitimately allow a foreign power to base shorter range missiles to our north and except for invading them there is little we can do! And you can blame all of that on the LNP who tried to screw one of our new near neighbours out of oil and gas and another which has been allowed to run extremely loose! While we were spending billions on wars in far away places we also cut aid and therefore influence to our near neighbours! Like I said nobody wants to invade us - why would they we sell them what they need. All anyone would want to do to us is keep us away from the main game. Cheers Ned
This largely depends whether their surveillance, target and targeting kill chain is up to scratch. That's harder to quantify without any combat experience.
What do you think they do all day. Play cards and drink tea? No they practice every single day in real life scenarios. They abre firing their missiles almost every day and test them against every scenario.
@@danwelterweight4137 do they practice with an opponent actively engaging in electronic warfare, hostility to recon assets in the area, jamming etc? Maybe they do, I don't know, but its very hard to conduct actual combat exercise these days without be detected. Yet stories of live exercise is very rare, excluding high profile events like ones involving Nancy
@@Baz.007 when is the last time that any country has ever engaged in electronic Reconicense and Such kinds situation i don't remember uncle sam fighting any Democracy unloving nation that had any or few such sophisticated systems
@Baz N I think your point is spot on, regarding China's lack of combat experience. I am also skeptical of claimed military capabilities in any totalitarian regime. I suspect one of the reasons Russian troops fared so badly in trying to take Kyiv early in the war is that Russian generals were afraid to be open and honest about Russian ground forces' limitations. Not that it kept them from being relieve of duty then jailed; it merely delayed the inevitable. The U.S. did the same in Afghanistan. Every commander over there said we were "making progress" and it was a complete lie. When General Shinseki recommended 200K troops for OIF-1 in 2002, he was fired by Rumsfeld. None of the other Joint Chiefs resigned in protest. Building solid, integrated combat arms capabilities is a lengthy, difficult and costly process. This process must be evaluated using objective measures, to ensure that there isn't a gap between stated and actual capabilities. I'm not a China analyst, but it seems apparent to me that today's Chinese society and political culture is not one that readily lends itself to frank assessments of its military capabilities and limitations.
The point of limiting short range missiles is this: In the event of nuclear launch, say Russia and America both think the other launched first and both launch within a minute of each other - the air is filled with the end of civilisation and if no-one does anything, civilisation across the globe ends. Long range missiles are in the air for long enough to negotiate both side turning their missiles into harmless ballistic lumps of metal that crash into the sea or burn up in the atmosphere - still not pretty but it’s not the apocalypse. Short range missiles are in the air for just a few minutes. Do you really think, even with interpreters already in place and the phone calls being made the second the launch happens, that 6 minutes is long enough to broker an agreement and send the command to deactivate all the missiles in the air? Russia and America certainly didn’t think so!
If you are curious about trucking over harsh terrain but don't want to do it yourself and get actually stuck, there's a game called snow runner which is basically that, driving semi trucks over muddy icy rocky wet steep terrain to get cargo to places. Tldr trucks like those will be slow and get stuck easily.
unfortunately i lost an SUV driving in muddy terrain, it got stuck in lowland when the tide was rising and by the time i got unstuck the tide had already started coming up, i had to make a mad dash for the other side of the beach where the road came around the marsh. but the tide had already climbed to high, i was stuck. with the tide coming in fast i made a mad dash for the other side, driving as fast as i possibly could, but i didnt have enough momentum to make it to the other side of the beach, my car got swept away. unfortunetly i took a $25,000 hit that day and it was probably the saddest day of my life. i ended up floating for a couple minutes and was rescued by some mexican fishermen, they didnt speak english and i was soaking wet with salt water, i nearly died, and i ended up going through a seriously sketching city in mexico soaking wet with only 1 shoe, i didnt even have a shirt, i was wrapped up in a fisherman's blanket, luckily i managed to find a guy with a van who agreed to drive me to the border after i payed him $100, i crossed into USA at the border at Brownsville Texas. also the area where i lost my SUV was Boca Chica Beach, Starship looks great... im still never going back, fk that place.
@@kitkat47chrysalis95 one of the things you learn in snow runner is you gotta be careful about deep water if you dont have the right equipment your engine could drown or you could start floating away etc. even if you are already good at off roading you could learn a thing or two without a real consequence, in that sense its practically a simulator. playing it ive done that where i was say crossing a river and the current flips my vehicle over and carries it to deeper water where there is no coming back.
The point at the end about not having been used in theatre - I suspect that may be more significant than most think, I'd not thought of it before (usually we think only of test cycles). Having to counter tracking, drones, ECM (if such things affect missiles, I'm presuming there's some electo-shenanigans pouring out of a Growler or similar)... The flat and smooth firing requirement can't be an easy one to satisfy either. If there's a SHTF situation and they do decide to light them then I'd suspect it would be in some haste and with a degree of disorganisation (usually from a political imperative driven by a severe internal sense of insecurity). TBH though I've only got what I see on discussion panels, etc. to go on here but it seems logical.
The himars system is definitly doing damage in Ukraine against Russia. If that's any indication of how effective these systems are. It makes sense why China is prioritizing these types of weapons.
@@YTStopCensoringFreedomOfspeech so it's the accuracy and shoot'n'scoot elements which make that thing so effective? It sounds like an impressive device indeed
@@davocc2405 Look at the list of generals killed so far by the Ukrainians. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=During%20the%202022%20Russian%20invasion,two%20general%20officers%20is%20rare. Almost all the deaths have been attributed to artillery stikes from the himars
Well China has had 2 successful hits at shooting at a full-size American Carrier >> In the desert Not moving as made of wood No defences from the mock-up Carrier Lol They fired at a mock up wooden carrier by the Spratley Islands I think it was But the video only shows the target blowing up There is no video of following in the missile to the target Funny as in the desert target, the video shows “a missile”. Flying into the mock-up wooden Carrier But the attempt to hit a mock-up by the Islands in the South China Sea, Only shows the explosion No video of the missile track as it hits ….. Hmm, Oh & don’t forget the EW that the Carrier can do itself Lol Creating multiple artificial Carriers for any incoming missiles to detect & have to make a choice on which one is the real Carrier & which one’s r just spooky images :)
I think that we must not comfort ourselves from knowing that "China has not fought any war for decades..." History suggests that we should not underestimate.... See how the newly-built and untested Imperial Japanese Navy of the late 1800s destroyed the Beiyang Fleet and Tzarist Navy.... Nice video as always Cappy👌
Japan had a history of warfare. They fought also in WW1 so that argument is invalid. On top of that China was bad at fighting and Russian empire and then Soviet Union were not so great in military doctrine
@@SaviourSword995 I was referring to the Battles of Tsushima and the Battle of Yellow Sea, which happened even before WW1... It was the first time that the Empire of Japan used a Modern Navy. The Russians underestimated their foe....
China's entire defense is literally designed for defense. If China were to use these missle systems to attack another nation. It would require mobilization of a occupying force. China does not have that capability. They could probably occupy Taiwan but that's it. The backlash of this action would be catastrophic. Look at what is going on in Russia internally since the Ukraine invasion.
@@SaviourSword995 Obviously do not understand the history of East Asia. China's war history is much greater than Japan's. The greatest novels and movie games in Japan have the history of "Three Kingdoms", but "Three Kingdoms" records the war in China. Japan before the Qing Dynasty , has always been China's underdog. Japan takes China as a teacher.
Soviet strategists underscored the importance of missile and rocket forces decades ago. China understood that it would be futile to try and catch up to America's advantage in aircraft carriers. Better to focus on technologies that could potentially counter them. It should go without saying that the PLA's explicit goal is to have the capability to defeat America in a global conflict. If not by themselves, then at least with support from other communist bloc countries.
China's goal is just to defeat the US over taiwan, and banking on the fact that it doesnt need to match US's global might but the US might the local region.
Hey Cappy, I have been very keenly interested in your videos since you last made an Indian Armed Forces video.. and I loved your unbiased analysis on Russia-Ukraine war too. There has been intriguing developments these days in Indian military, can you please make a video based on these. There is also a plan on rocket force too.. love from India 🇮🇳
@Tanim Islam common brother 1/3 Rd of your country is under water , and India is helping you way more than your irin biradaaar . And here you are , still begging in front of imf or your irin biradaaar. Iaf uses 40 Tejas and are deployed at your border . We have projects with budgets more than your entire economy so rather than just poking Indians in every comments section look into your country for once . Ram ram
@@michaelcondon8286 he is talking about the projects which will be done by the foreign defence coorporations...we don't anything by our own as govt has no intentions to revive the small industries so that it could help to boost up the domestic production capability...
The Chinese rocket force concerns me. They have a lot of varieties, the CSS-11, the DF-16, but one worries me more than the others, cause I don't wanna get hit by No Dong.
Good show, I hope this the start of a series. Without good coverage of DF17, DF21 and DF26 it won’t be complete. On top of missals the PLA also has its long range rockets. It is reportedly to have range of 250KM and more. It also has guided heads with accuracy of meters. These rockets are equipped with the PLA army, not RF. For Taiwan, rockets are mostly be used to wipe out large areas of targets. Recently they also reported using drones together to attack ships with rockets. Rockets are very low cost.
A great recap Chris, your efforts are really appreciated! As far as measuring China's new missiles capabilities are concerned I think that would be especially difficult for those of us in "CivLand" to do as there isn't much info available in the open source area. The fear that our carriers are "too big to lose" (from missiles) is obviously a huge concern but again w/out performance data who can really say. One thing is clearly obvious and that is given China's massive investments in their military and other related fields (not to mention their recent history with Hong Kong & Taiwan) I think that an "assume the worst" approach on our part is more than justified. I do have a concern with our own systems development efforts and that is the time and resources we've squandered in questionable weapons & doctrines, but perhaps that's better left for another time.
It seems China's weapons are of defensive posture, i.e., denying the US from its coastal waters, except it also would deter Taiwan from gaining independence. So, the real question is how much Uncle Sam would risk helping Taiwan gaining that independence. While Biden is providing tens of billions of dollars to help Ukraine, the US dilapidated airports will get 62 million in upgrade funding. What a joke!
I agree, I think you have to prepare for the worst while realizing that China is probably just as much if not more of a paper tiger than Russia. Great skepticism should be shown to their claims.
Solid content my friend, i just found you and I appreciate the extensive in depth research and passion poured into your work. This truly is very high quality stuff and I thank you for looping us in. Keep it coming.
Very good and informative video. China is modernizing and increasing its forces at an alarming rate. They have also completed a new aircraft carrier within three years, something that surprised the US. However, according to American analysts, they are still about 5 years away from their goal in the region.
they have "modernized" but stealing civilian grade tech. now that's done, and all the tech companies hate them, there is going to be a halt in Chinese improvements. China hasn't taken part in any wars, because they can't afford to. there economy is still flimsy.
@@charlespk2008 China has taken part in the Korean war, forcing the UN forces in to signing a cease fire that is in effect since then. They have also fought in a very short war (or large border incident) against the Soviet Union in the late '60s. They were also many serious border incidents with India, and I think they also fought a short war with Vietnam. The stealing civilian tech part is ridicules, western corporations moved their production lines to China in the past decades, and by doing this thy transferred significant know how to the Chinese. The civilian tech is not the only thing transferred to Cina, there were many military equipment, mostly Russian and Western European that are being produced under license in China, while the technology of other military systems was stolen. Also, China improved the technology it acquired by using its own scientists. You see, contrary to the American beliefs, there are other people in the world with brains in their heads. The Chinese being 1.3 billion people have a large pool of people to find the ones with high IQ.
Nuclear deterrence is extremely different in this situation. The need to accurately hit a carrier at sea at speed goes down considerably if you consider a quick conversion of a tactical warhead to a tactical nuclear warhead which could near miss snd take out an entire carrier group. The key vulnerability is that nuking a carrier group in the middle of an Pacific is vastly different from nuking a Population center on terra firma. The response to a nuclear strike in the Pacific is restricted in that the retaliatory strike would have to be against the population center. Thus the responder is the one creating the escalation where mass casualties are usually the nuclear deterrent.
No, I think that the carrier task force would only be in a vulnerable position if Chinese forces were massing to invade Taiwan. Hence , the response would be to use nuclear weapons on the massed invasion force
@@alfredopampanga9356 you both should never be near The Button. The appropriate response to a nuclear strike is to nuke: no one. Period. Nuclear weapons use is a positive feedback loop, and as the line goes, the only winning move is not to play. No matter what. (Front all you want, that's pretty much fine- but don't actually ever do it)
you need a near direct hit to destroy a naval ship with a nuke. navy formations are specifically spread out enough to avoid multiple kills. and the amassed interceptors in such a fleet is a massive risk to nukes.
We Chinese take immense pride in these missile systems. All those military bloggers in Weibo(Chinese twitter) sing the praises million times a day, saying that we can take Taiwan in one day with our missile force, or that we can kill every single US super carriers anytime we like with our missiles. Unsurprisingly, much like the talking points on Russian Telegram before the war, same song different singer: all world leading, world conquering weapons that scared the capitalist NATO shitless. Look how that turned out for Russia. We are not dumb. In public, We HAVE to sing the praises and clap our hand like a sea lion. However, people could tell that these propagandas are not adding up. In such a complex weapon industrial exercises, no one could go from zero to hero in ten years no matter how much money you throw at it. People won’t say things that could get them arrested but they are getting their backup plans ready in the back and prepare for the worst. Edit: I’m not saying that our rockets are bad. No one knows and I hope we never find out (like Russia). I’m just saying that even middle class Chinese people take ANYTHING the government said with a moon-sized grain of salt. I don’t see how our military get an exception.
@@lukevin5941 ' Look how that turned out for Russia' ? They have destroyed majority of Ukrainian weapons depot and ammunition sites with their missiles. Even with all the weapons provided by nato, Russia caused a significant damage to Zelensky's boys. Looks like you only watch the one sided news from the western media. Also since when did your government forced you to write positive twitter/weibo posts about your missile capabilities? Also aren't your rocket manufacturing more than 'ten' years old?
Unfortunately, if the decision makers and intelligence services swallow their own propaganda, they may make unsound decisions. In Putin's Russia, the FSB was providing rosy estimates of how well the Russian economy could handle potential sanctions, and rosy estimates of how easy it would be to take over Ukraine. Why? Because of the system - either you provided estimates that said, "Yes, Russia can do anything!" or you get scrutiny. Obviously, it's not so important when they force ordinary people who aren't part of the decision making process to sing the praises. But when it applies to the analysts responsible for the reports informing the decision making process ... well, obviously bad decisions can happen. I hope the CCP leadership sees this risk, comprehends this risk, and does what is necessary to deal with this risk. My family is Taiwanese, so obviously I hope Chinese missiles do not rain down upon them. But it would be particularly tragic, to me, if such a decision was made based on flawed analysis.
Would you consider doing a video on the Wagner group? I can’t really find much information on them, like how many soldiers do they have, what’s their equipment like, how are they different tactically and strategically, what’s their pay vs a regular Russian soldier, what kind of crazy stuff do they have going on behind the scenes? Etc. Thanks!
The “Wagner Group” is mostly a western propagandamedia concoction myth. They had to create a “Russian boogeyman” after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict when *TRUE* *STORIES* and information about the Azov Battalion and other *REAL* *NAZI* groups in Ukraine began to reach the west and cause people to take pause and question why exactly the government and media are pushing support for them so hard. 💩🔥🇺🇦🔥💩✅🤦♂️
Personally, I was scared of Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine. After seeing how poorly they handle actual war, I am not scared of any country that buys hand-me-downs from them. China LOVES to talk big but the fact that they bark but never bite is very telling.
That seems pretty narrow-minded. All it takes is some of their nukes to work for them to be a serious threat. There is no real defense for nukes, despite what some would say about anti-missile systems, they dont seem to be very effective.
Lets see Ukraine is getting money, supplies, and weapons from NATO and other countries while Russia is not wonder how long they would last without that aid 🤔🤔🤔🤔.
China are very different than Russia, china have 4 times more military budget than Russia and it's growing year over year, while Russia itself have way smaller military budget than china and it's declining. And also china is the largest industrial country on earth while Russia civillian industry are almost non existence.
before Ukraine war, many people are very overestimated Russia military capabilities just because they have largest army and nuclear in the world. While forgot that before the invasion, Russia military budget are decline from 88 billion dollar in 2013 to only just 65 billion dollar in 2021. With that declining military budget, rather than spend their money on cheap but effective weapon like drone. Russia military are invested in "wonder weapon" Such as T-14 Armata, SU-57,hypersonic missile etc. And yet we don't even see their "wonder weapon" In Ukraine war
China used to be exactly like Russia with those hand me downs 10,20 and 30 years ago. But now? China is a completely different beast that makes their own stuff and unlike Russia when they “make” something 90% of the budget doesn’t go into some Oligarchs’s budget thanks to Xi’s anti-corruption campaigns. Still more corrupt than the US but nowhere near as bad as Russia
How so? Then why does the USA spend more on the military than the next 10 nations combined? If China is overcompensating, USA is that on steroids (This is just to show how your point is a value judgement and has no truth to it, I personally support US military spendingas deterrence, but all nations deserve their own deterrence)
I think it is because Chinese defence strategy is largely defensive rather than offensive. If you attack, you need carriers. Missals are perfect for defence.
The US has been workin on countermeasures fore the DF16 and DF17 for at least 15 years. I suspect they can be defeated with patriot or SM-2 for DF16 and THAD or SM-1 for DF17 as long as there are not so many in a single volume as to saturate the system.
I think we give WAAAYY too much credit to China. They are not competent and extremely corrupt, likely even more so than Russia. Further in Chinese culture, they will say things are much better than it is.
Not competent how? Exactly how? In what ways are you personally more competent than Chinese? They can develop missiles with unlimited ranges due to USA and Russia being limited by INF.. If USA Quits INF, so will Russia (if they haven't already in secret). Also given how many underground facilities chinese have built you never know their true numbers.
I'm dubious that the mobile launcher would be damaging to the missile. There's lots of suspension systems using active airbags that would absorb most if not all of the transport shocks if driven with care. One would assume the PLA thought of this prior to production.
it would atleast make the maintenance requirements higher if the missiles are very sensitive to disruption from normal vehicle use. At anyrate, I think the concerns about reliability are overblown. These missiles are solid rockets. Solid fuels are incredibly low maintenance compared to their liquid fueled counterparts.
There’s only so much suspension can do with a vehicle with such a long wheel base. It’s not about the ability of the suspension to absorb shock, but the fact that the vehicle will just bottom out of it tries to cross a large obstacle. That limits what kind of terrain it can cross. But let’s not just assume that Chinese vehicles can do something well just because they thought of it. Surely they thought of the sun drying out their tires, but there those tires are falling apart on Russian vehicles.
@@bluemarlin8138 yeah, being long and heavy obviously limits where a vehicle can go but, modern active air suspension systems would definitely allow that MML to go off road on relatively flat terrain. It definitely is not relegated to paved roads. Tires cracking in the sun is a simple maintenance issue, China is not Russia and has plenty of money to maintain they're equipment.
Any concerns about China mobile rocket platforms on difficult terrain still make it worth it since any mobility is better than no mobility with a silo. Easy peasey.
@@madensmith7014 These mobile platforms are deployed from a very large system of underground tunnels built into the sides of mountains. There is likely no reliable way to attack them.
Great video! However, there are a couple really important facts you left out that really deserve to be discussed or at least mentioned: 1. Qian Xuesen - "The Father of Chinese Rocketry". This dude was literally a scientist working for the U.S. who was absolutely brilliant and innovative. Then, the U.S. kicked him out of the country for unfounded reasons and forced him to return to China where he kick-started their rocket program. A huge part of China's rocket development is a direct result of poor American politics. 2. The DF-ZF or Chinese hypersonic missile. America has nothing compare against and even senior military and Pentagon leadership admitted that we have no counterpart and have fallen behind the Chinese in hypersonic missile development. The Chinese will absolutely overtake us in terms of technology if for no other reason than basic arithmetic. They have substantially more researches, scientists, and engineers working to develop these kinds of capabilities, further more, they are pouring massive amounts of money into these programs starting at university. But that's OK. It's OK because there is little likelihood they would be used against us unless there was an all out war. Chinese policy at the moment is a defensive posture, and they also suck at foreign policy and soft power. The Chinese people are growing increasingly weary of their own government, and the government officials at the head of the politburo are mostly incapable old men. That said, China domestically, is in a very similar situation as we are. They have growing discontent, their government has sucked for a while now, they have large groups of people who would be more than willing to create civil war, and they continue to make one poor economic decision after another.
In fact, in China's political system, if you want to become a national leader, you must gradually stand out from the leadership at the county, municipal, and provincial levels. Therefore, to become a high-level leader, you must be at least 50 years old.
that goes for all treaties, regulations, and laws. Besides, the treaty was a relatively successful USSR - USA treaty. That's much better than pointless.
"Good Faith" and "China" are kind of mutually exclusive terms. Which is hilarious for a culture that still bandies about the word Honor. Clearly, we have different dictionaries. To them it means social status and getting your way, to the West it means just or ethical.
I am noticing you have ignored their missile trains that lurk in specially built railroad tunnels that also connect to regular railroad lines. Your animation shows an ablative shield heating up on re-entry. That can be hard to see on a radar screen.
I think you should make Missile videos about the midrange capabilities of following: 1. Saudi Arabia: China has already transferred large quantities of missile to Saudi Arabia and are currently building out factories that can produce these missiles on Saudi soil. 2. Pakistan with its midrange missiles and 100 rouge nuclear warheads 3. Iran with significant variety of missiles and so far no nuclear warheads, but they have tested missiles with multiple reentry warheads 4. Israel with significant variety of missiles with approximately 100 rouge nuclear warheads
I don’t see how any of that is true when just months ago, a Chinese rocket headed to space quickly changed direction and landed on a village. They were quick to cover it up but not after the video was shared online. I don’t expect their war missiles to be all that different.
If they were actively doing tests during peacetime, the kinks would mostly be worked out in the future. The US had their fair share of tracking systems that went for the wrong target, China is still in the process of development.
Would a weak point in the targeting systems be the Satelites? Theoretically would there be a way for the US to just turn them off or shut them down without creating dangerous amounts of space debris? Did I just find out how Space Force could actually be useful? Find out next time on Dragon Ball Z Sorry
Theoretically and scientifically yes, as GPS signals are fairly weak and can be blocked although with high flying objects the need would be to scramble the signals, however, all that would really do would be to reduce a missiles terminal precision. Sometimes that's a really big deal, like saving a specific bunker or arty battery from being hit, but not enough to save a large logistics base, airbase, etc. Ballistic missiles with inertial guidance are pretty serious bad news if an enemy has them in abundance. One thing worth noting is that such large TEL vehicles would not hide easily from suitable munitions dropped from advanced stealth bombers. Also note that US Marines don't readily give kudos to the over-priced Air Force boys in blue, but this one just did.
Well. Awhile ago there was a certain space craft being used by the air force before space force came into existent. Many theories around the secret spacecrafts uses.
@@mundylunes7755 I think we should be wary about them being wasteful, but useful or not remains to be seen. At any rate, even if they do nothing they are a million times a better investment than the wealth thrown away on climate fear-mongering. Who knows, in the future we might have ballistic HALO troopers like those imagined by Robert Heinlein. Such a thing would be a nightmare for China.
The recent PLA drills around Taiwan seems to show their missiles are pretty inaccurate. Many missiles missed thier intended targets and fell into Japanese waters.
@@damianodonnell5844 they were intended to land close to Taiwan. Hitting Japanese waters would only make their already bad relationships with their neighbors even worse.
@@leileijoker8465 You imagine they were intended to land close to Taiwan, but the fact is they drew dangerous zone in the disputed EZZ between Japan and Taiwan days before lunching them. China hitting those waters is also a message to Japan that China claim those waters as EZZ geographically extended from Taiwan island.
Cappy I also want to know the other countries ballistic missile capabilities. Like USA, Russia, Iran, India, France and so on. That way we have a idea of how countries doctrine works
SM-2 and SM-6 SAM can also act as anti-ship ballistic missile. Although its warhead is small, it will come down vertically so even if it doesn't sink the ship, it will put it out of fight. Not to mention the new PrSM with its anti-ship capabilities
a HE frag warhead will fail to penetrate even the most basic armour on a warship. so unless you get extremely lucky, it won't really do anything. Also. at freefall speeds, the warhead is too light and will loose alot of momentum once the rocket engines cut out.
@@miraphycs7377 modern warship hulls have minimal armour but enough to withstand artillery shrapnel. thats why all antiship weapons still use semi-armour piercing warheads.
The reason the DF 21 is not scary is because of a combination of the increased capability of SM 6 and SM 3. Continuing to bolster the fleet with the SM3 and SM6 is the way to ensure fleet safety. DF 21 is a non-proven system That has many hurdles before it can be called a carrier killing ballistic missile.
The targeting needs to be continuous - the time between launch and the guidance system being able to search on the way down means that continuous tracking while the missile is in flight is necessary. Aircraft and submarines are too vulnerable, so the best bet would be a satellite - Most likely a RORSAT (Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite) which are big, low orbit satellites, which means that each sat is taking about 90 minutes per orbit, and at best would be able to spot a Carrier Group on one or two passes. One of the "built-ins" of AEGIS, since it was first conceived in the 1960s is anti-satellite - which it has demonstrated. The RORSAT is a weak link - its path and schedule are essentially fixed - it can change its orbital height, but not its plane - which makes it a relatively easy target.
@@peterstickney7608 A carrier is a huge target. It can be easily spotted from 35,000km up in GEO. But it's so big it can be spotted with over the horrizon low freq ground based radar. The missile itself will have a radar to locate the target once it's at a high enough altitude. It'll also have inertial guidance which will take over once its very close (enough so the ship can't change course). And it will make one or two evasive manuevers when it's 20km away (and about 5 sec to impact). But whether it can be intercepted will depend on details that we'll never learn about for a few decades. But will a US admiral want to put his carrier group < 1500km when the shooting starts?
@@mgronich948 Yea and how many countries have a big over the radar system to do what you say it does.. These are big and haven't heard China has one. Australia has the biggest and most advanced one.
@@peterstickney7608 Not the only way to spot a carrier, long range OTH radars work as well, geo-sync satellites and they even have recon drones that would do the trick.
It’s a calculated risk. However, a kill chain is a complex chain of events. It’s a moving target and a Ford class actual speed is classified. By the time a rocket gets in the vicinity, a carrier can be 100s of miles away. The US Navy holds its cards close to their chest. Furthermore, in a short time said Navy will count with lasers just in case.
@@diegodelavega1883 that's what satellites, awacs, and using the good old bait tactic is for, with final stage adjusting ability, the chances of hit is high, if they can track they can guide any missile near the target either precisely or near enough for the missile to search and track on its own.
Also makes me wonder what China Really sees as the biggest threat. A Chinese populace with lots of people who know how to use basic firearms (from military service) has revolutionary, anti-totalitarianism potential. A bunch of missile techs, drivers and vehicle crewmen pose virtually no threat to the state whatsoever.
@@paulrevere2379 Chinese populace are banned from owning firearms and the few that manage to know how to use basic rifles are lack training to perform with what they had consistently.
@@memenadekhanh3992 Do you know what a Chinese militia is? Are there military training in high schools and universities in China? And reserve troops! Check it out when you have time! Sir, China's Civilian Military Qualities
@Space Lizard Are they really ? It's not like political struggle are common in the party and that there's no transparency allowing us to see the real situation. Oh wait, it's absolutely the situation. They're fine now but if they're ever forced to limit spending in their armed forces or affect their lifestyle (officers/soldiers) it WILL breed discontent.
Really enjoy your content and analysis! Just a detail the US also snatched everything they could from the German rocket program, also scientists who received no punishment aka operation Paperclip! Just saying keep it up 🤠 greetings from Greece
Underrated coment. Many US-americans dont know operation Paperclip and other things like the internment camp for people with asian descent in ww2, because there own "propaganda" don´t tell them stuff like that. The winner still writes the history.
@@Lord0irgendwas have you been to America? because the internment of japanese is pretty common in history classes and there are states from washington to the southwest with museums dedicated to the internment camps. it also appears quite a bit in media, the famous band Fort Minor even had a song "Kenji" dedicated to it and politicians ad high se the president himself publically apologized for it. I see it mentioned on trivia websites, history channels, history UA-cam channels, and stuff like that all the time. Paperclip is as well documented in media or history classes but still gets brought up alot too. it's in the public consciousness and gets brought up quite a bit in conversations about history. paper clip was big but people tend to forget that: 1. the soviets did the same, 2. info got shared with European allies, and 3. that the US already had it's own aerospace industry that was BETTER than germanys, it's just that Germany had done more research into rockets and jet engines specifically. To be effective though they built jets with American planes, Anglo american radar, american fuel mixtures, and flew with Anglo american electronics. similar story with rockets, the US and UK had better computers and electronics so they used their guidance systems (in missiles the guidance systems are arguably one of if not the most important part since a smaller more accurate missile is better than a poorly aimed larger missile.
@@arthas640 @Arthas Menethil Hi Arthas, yes i was many times in America mostly in South America and Middle America, but also in the USA if you meant that by America. Its more than 20 yeahr, ago but then the US-Citizens i met where mostly not aware of the "dark" sides of US-history. Its nice to hear that its maybe change to a more reflected view on history. After banning books among other things mathbooks in schools becouse they have "critical race theory" in it, i´am not to sure about it. The people i meet where keen to tell me "USA greates land on earth and so on...no no there was no genocide on the native people here in the USA!" Also Werner von Braun a committed nazi and antisemite was in the 50th and 60th a folk hero in the USA. He personly monitored the manufacturing of the V2. The only weapon that killed more humans bulding it than enemys in the war. So really hope that, subjects like that get discussed nowadays. Thanks for the musik hint i will give it a look, never heard of them befor. Jorge Augustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana sayed same true and matching words: "Those who do not remember their past are doomed to repeat it."
Wasn't just nazi scientists set free, but only 100 nazis were ever sentenced for anything in the west, less than the number of blacks disproportionately locked up DAILY in US for drug possession, and the rest were promoted to Nato. This video also gets the chinese rocket program history entirely wrong. You're not going to develop a modern rocket from a primitive v2. The father of their rocket program Qian Xuesen was a founder of the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab who was locked up under house arrest in the US during the Korean War just like the japanese were interned during ww2. China traded for him with American prisoners of war, and needless to say he was looking for some sweet payback.
How do you do a video about the PLARF (great acronym, "plarf") and not mention the DF-17? Also, many of these designs now have ship launched variants thanks to the Type 055 DDG's extra thicc VLS.
wait, isnt this outside your usual upload hours? you uploaded a ukraine war video earlier this day havent you? i mean, i appreciate the work, so im not complaining. yes, i do like to get my defense information from a guy in his sweatpants, can i get an unironic hooah?
PSA: Every Silver Tail and Triple Whistler rocket you popped off last 4th of July to celebrate 'Murica....was made in China. YoU fEeD thEiR WaR mAcHinE.
So many people do not know where China is. I am 65 and Nixon went to China. My dad thought that China would become a good democracy with social growth/ a free market system . I was 14 or so at that time and told my dad the story of the Leopard changing his spots.
True, new systems that are untested in combat commonly don't live up to all expectations, but to think that way is dangerous, you might underestimate your foe.
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You folks repeatedly say that Soviets copied Nazi technology heavily, but you never mention that Americans did the same and were one notch ahead in this copy business than the Soviets.
DF-16 is already quite behind. 10 year old technology. Cap I would rather you focus on quality than getting these out fast. I haven't seen a UA-camr covering Chinese missiles not talk about DF-17, DF-21, DF-26 and the YJ-21
@[ HAL9000 ] ZIGZAG [ Ground ZERO ] Commie agent spotted
Russinese will rule the world as 1nation under 1 dictatorship!
When it comes to first strike, experience doesn’t apply. An overwhelming alpha strike with simultaneous blitz might preempt reinforcement once relief forces realize there’s no safe harbor for re-supply. With this in mind, it’s up to Taiwanese to have the porcupine defense fighting tooth-and-nail to stymie Chinese invaders long enough for relief forces to arrive. I fear the rescue time won’t be short enough to save them IFF the alpha strike goes according to plan.
Cappy spoils us with 2 releases in 24 hours, my life couldn't be better
Spoils us silly
Great name Carl !
Two spicy videos. had to double check it wasnt my birthday today.
He couldn't just keep us feeling nice with that last video, he's gotta keep us scared!!
Yeah I was like "what"
Worth mentioning that those ballistic missiles can also be fired from submarines (obviously) but also from the 055 destroyers, and some can be air launched as well.
The air launch version is Hypersonic...launch from PLA AF H6K.
@@shimadwan8251 of course it is
@@shimadwan8251 we don’t tend to refer to ballistic missiles as hypersonic missiles. Generally that refers to hypersonic and highly maneuverable.
yes, the ship-carry export version of DF-21(YJ-21E) has been shown in this year's ZhuHai air show
Could be decoy subs. Subs purposely emit lot of noise.
understanding the history and reason why the USA (and who else) is in the missile treaty and why it exists would have been a useful addition. great video, totally new news to me!
Probably one of the most important aspects that would’ve given the context of whatever active treaties and who is party to them.
It was even newer new news to me.
And we are in a contract with a government that doesn't even exist anymore. ?
The INF treaty is now defunct, since Trump and then Putin pulled out.
He mentions it around 10min in the video
Hey Cappy! Thanks a lot for the info/video. Its greatly appreciated. I'm really writing this because I notice over the last few months you're not your usual chipper self. I truly hope you're OK and things in your life are not too difficult. Many times I watch as much for your humor as well as the info. (no pressure, lol) I just want you to know we like your content but it would be nothing without your shining smile. IF you're having struggles I pray things will work out well for you. Thank you for all the hard work you put into this channel.
It isn't strange at all the early DongFengs were fueled by alcohol. The Soviet R-2 and German V-2 it was derived from were also alcohol fueled.
The Germans also made jet aircrafts, rudderless bombers... They were good!
The Soviets used them until they found the soldiers were drinking the fuel. JK.
Then went to solid.
Cappy these videos recently have been awesome and I feel like I have learned a lot. I really like the unbiased fog of war videos about Ukraine that show off the Russian victories as well because you only ever see positive news about the Ukrainian army which doesn’t always paint the whole picture.
@@wes11bravo now Ukraine is winning, but we have no idea what the Russians would do next. They could very well make a strong comeback during winter for all we know
Well at the moment Russia isn't getting many victories but yes people are too optimistic thinking Russia already lost, we have to send a little more weapon and overcome the winter, after that it will be much easier
he’s got the timeline wrong.
Soviet Union retreated all the aid before the cultural revolution, during which Chinese missile program had the first major success.
If Russia intends to hit back before winter they need to move NOW. Very soon the wet autumn (Fall) will make movement impossible. Soon after the intense cold will stop everything. Rutted ground like concrete is impassable- if you can get your engines running. Troops will need the best winter equipment. All stuff Russia does not have.
Ukraine will win in Kherson by simply laying siege mediaeval style. Right now they are digging in around the occupied areas. Probably waiting for those Russians to collapse for lack of winter equipment.
@@Dave5843-d9m isn't the winter traditionally Russia's best friend?
Here in Iran, in absence of a decent airforce we have developed an obsession with drones and missiles.
cause iran captured one of the american drone and copied cause you clueless nation ..always trying to buy some other nations tech like china
@@DuraStop oh I can totally see how developed nations like UK don't beg US for F-35.
@@behroozkhaleghirad lets talk about your terrorist country
@@behroozkhaleghirad russia russia we need nukes to bomb israel we cant fight them))))
Thats the smart thing to do, its the same reasoning with Germanys(back in the Day) and Soviet Unions/Russias Obsession with Submarines.
"No Chance to compete with the Enemys Surface Fleet, so even bother to try?"
Not just DF-16, DF-11, DF-15, DF-16, DF-20(equivalent to 9K720 Iskander, original DF-12), those are for Taiwan and possible for Japan, DF-17, DF-21D, DF-26B, those are for US, so called A2/AD.
Incredible videos, I found you from your Ukraine update videos from a week or so ago, you are pushed hard by the algorithm rn so just know your doing something right. Clicked thru your AD link just to show appreciation for such high quality content, please keep it up.
Also you may have already done a video on this and I need to just find it but I feel like exploring why the marines got rid of its armor and what that means for the future of armored warfare
Love his videos too! And yes he does have one on why the marines ditched their tanks, probably searchable with some keywords.
The gist is that the marines were getting to be a bit too much like an army 2.0, and the logistics/support associated with tanks didn't really fit into their traditional doctrine of highly mobile and amphibious assault. Twas a good video 👍🏻
The INF treaties were designed to prevent false positives. Remember when the US thought the USSR had launched an all-out pre-emptive nuclear strike because of a software mistake at NORAD? We were very close to launching real missiles and bombers armed with nuclear weapons. It's dangerous.
Sandia Labs has a great video on the controls & safety features built into the US arsenal over the years through incidents like this, among other things. Another example is the US deciding to take the nuclear sharing program with NATO out of the hands of individual military commanders, especially foreign control of US nukes. In the 1950s, West Germany could've theoretically nuked someone if a relatively low level player like a Brigadier General decided it was the time. The US, UK, and France are the most responsible nuclear-armed nations by far in the way they control the use of them.
UK and France maybe, but not my country. Earlier on in the cold war we tried to keep our nukes in the air as often as possible do to an early lead in strategic weaponry the soviets had. We had pilots with nuclear payloads passing out in-flight, accidentally releasing their payloads over the continental US and allied territories like Greenland, and this happened an uncomfortable number of times. Fortunately, as far as I know, none of these were ever primed to blow in these incidents, although its believed one of those bombs is still lost within the ice and snow of Greenland to this day. Although our insistence on basing our nuclear weapons in other NATO states, I think is incredibly reckless.
Once that strategic shortcoming was resolved, those flights ended. However, submarine based nuclear weaponry is probably the area in which all parties are somewhat irresponsible. The idea of putting such weapons onboard craft that can often end up cut off from communication, lead to some dire scenarios. Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov was in command of a sub during the Cuban Missile Crisis and prevented such a scenario from taking place, when tensions, mixed with a loss of communications, led many aboard his submarine to believe the worst. That man's cool head is why we're alive today, but its scary to think that its not a given that every submarine will be crewed with at least one person like him in a position to make such an important decision.
@@QueenMooSuko US have lost nuclear warheads near spain in the 70.
Funny to see in newspaper some title like "USA finally find his nuclear weapons" like it was a lost car ^^.
12:22 i'm pretty sure the entire truck is longer than 5 meters, as that's your average family car. Maybe 15m would be more accurate.
Multiple Payload Reentry weapons are so terrifying. I’m glad to finally hear them mentioned. They’re essentially what has made all nuclear arms race advances remain at a cold stalemate, regardless of missile defense tech. The warheads (up to 6 typically) come down from low orbit at the speed of a meteor. Upon impact they have more individual destructive power than the bombs dropped on Japan. Considerably more. When we talk about ICBMs, this is what we are talking about. The only real defense against these weapon systems (which are employed by every nuclear armed nation) have to be used in space. The “Star Wars” program was that. The USA apparently has some interception systems on satellites that use small devices fitted with retro thrusters to swarm the reentry vehicle and destroy it before it is over top the target area and releases its black cones of biblical destruction. Once they are released, all bets are off.
Maybe if we humans stop using our respective militaries and tax money to find new ways to annihilate eachother, and instead spent the money on actually useful stuff (Jimmy’s voice) i-i-i-i mean c- -c-c-com oon
would you like to living in the world where nukes are flying under you heads? No weaponizing of space! The “Star Wars” program makes your dream come true
@@lampegutt123 talk with Putin and Xi about this
@@qwertyqwerty-zi6dr oh yeah Americans never escalate or spend more money on their military than like the next five countries behind it ti keeps its empire for their billionaires.
Russia and China are Just refusing to bend the knee to American world hegemony. And we’ll see if the US is willing to accept this, or start ww3 over it.
Ffs America cant even provide their own population with a decent and free health care system, yet every other modern nation managed? Id rather have a child or get a chronic disease in China ir Russia than the US.
Amazing how the Americans in power convinced their own population that free healthcare is not a demand you should make if your government. Actually laughable.
And their own people are committing terrorism aka mass murders with guns bought legally. Yet thats impossible to fix
@@qwertyqwerty-zi6dr and America
also Mr, DF21 is the older version of carrier killer, the new DF26 with ultra high speed glider warhead, that is the new carrier killer, and with all respect you also missed DF4, DF5, DF5A/B ,DF31 ,DF41, and SLBM, all of those missiles can reach to US mainland with only DF4 being the exception(range of 8000Km, but it can reach Guam)
You failed to mention the important role that Qian Xuesheng played in China’s Rocket development (well, as well as US’s).
I'll give you kudos for making downloading Raid almost feel like my patriotic duty
I'd rather eat glass than download that digital cancer.
They spend more money shilling out to UA-camrs to plug their game than actually developing their game. Every UA-camr is sponsored by Raid Shadow Legends, yet I know exactly ZERO people who play it.
@@MrHav1k Its not that bad a game, apart from the constant pop ups wanting you to shell out RL money and horrendous odds of getting anything decent until you can beat at least NM clan boss. Ive never spent ANY rl money on this game, but still have some of the most sought after characters (not the infamous Lydia shown on the ad though, if you have never played Raid before, Lydia is pretty much THE endgame reward, once you have got her you have beaten the game and unless you are a big pvp arena fan you might as well delete it)
Great content. I'm not an expert but the argument I've heard is that the Chinese could overwhelm a carrier groups defenses with the sheer volume of inbound missiles.
After seeing Russia's performance in Ukraine, there's a big unknown factor in terms of how much corruption impacts their actual combat power. I don't think it's safe to assume China will have the same issues though.
Technologically it seems like missle and drone based weapon systems are getting cheaper and easier to produce. This will have profound impacts on how conflicts are fought in the future. Just like how aircraft carriers spelled the end of the battleship.
You're correct, China is a much much bigger industrial power. (Which is equivalent to the next 2nd 3rd 4th 5th combined and more while Russia today is only equivalent to their 5%) That will help how to think about how many crazy weapons and technology they have.
Each of these missiles is a hundred million a pop. A hundred or so, you are reaching the same cost as a carrier. That is also IF they work anywhere near intended. The first half is a ballistic missile, though hypersonic fast it locks on to location, not target and flies at a predictable trajectory. The glider that pops off is driven by momentum. IF it can lock on target and make turns, it loses speed for every turn not to mention it might have to hold on to that speed for a couple hundred miles between the initial break off of the ballistic missile.
When you were talking about the difficulty of transporting over and launching from off-road positions, all I could think about was the incredible success HIMARS.
How many wars has the US won with them
HIMARS is significantly lighter then most of chinese BM launchers.. Tho they're a huge threat no doubt about that
@@ChristoffelTensors that's not the right question to ask. It's better to ask, has the HIMARS accomplished what it was designed to do
@@onlyplaysveigar7241 yes himars show just how important missle vehicles are just 16 of them obliterated Russian logistics even tho China has worse quality missle systems having 1200 would be extremely useful
@@ChristoffelTensors Only 1 hour and you've been ratioed. Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth shut and let people think your an idiot rather than opening it and removing all doubt.
Chris your delivery and humor is too funny and so informative at the same time. Such a joy to watch these videos
Never underestimate your enemy. Over confidence is a military killer.
Why did you not talk about the DF-26 for long?
The U.S. Naval fleet must worry about these...
YJ-21 (Ship Launched Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile)
DF-26 (Guam/Carrier Killer)
DF-21 (Carrier Killer)
YJ-21 is a joke. Its easy picking from AEGIS system and it is barely classified as "manuverable". 2.5MOA at cruise speed and a predicable re-entry arc. They are just throwing there money down the toilet.
I agree I am really shocked. DF-16 is already quite behind. 10 year old technology. I haven't seen a UA-camr covering Chinese missiles not talk about DF-17, DF-21, DF-26 and the YJ-21
Where is the DF-17?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-17
The Slava class cruiser called "Moscow" had the same nickname: "Carrier Killer."
All used to say - There are no better missiles than S-300 and S-400!
@@Maderum I didn't know if DF-17 was a missile that would be used in Pacific fleet warfare. I assumed it was ground launched to ground target.
Scud launchers during Dessert Storm. They were almost impossible to find.
Just wanted to bump this. The only good news is that it's technically challenging to mass produce these things for a prolonged conflict. The bad news is and has always been that if you launch more than just a few at a nuclear capable nation, it's instant Apocalypse because that nation can't tell if the missiles are carrying nukes. Heck, if the CCP launched a few at Japan it might still be the end because they counterattack (most likely a conventional one) might leave them desperate enough to lob missiles at a nuclear capable nation (in this scenario the US).
Digital processing of satellite images has come a long way since then (practically real time) and scud launchers are smaller than some of the current Chinese ones.
@@LondonSteveLee Yea, you're probably right. DS seems like yesterday to me. It's the equivalent of 1960 tech vs 1990 tech. Then 1990 tech vs 2020 tech. Geez, I'm getting old...
Great video Cappy In Australia we have been concerned by their missile development for some time, but not much has been spoken about countering the threat.
Never trust CCP , the biggest terrorist contery
No we havn't been afraid as only their long range Nuclear can reach Australia and JORN gives us days notice of a invading force for all these shorter range to hit us.
Also you have no clue on what Australia is doing about it as is kept pretty secretive. but if search will find we are starting very big in Domestic ballistic missiles and rocket systems in Australia,
And because of Ray Stalker and his scramjet technology we are going really big in Hypersonics.
Robotic painting and sanding systems for Hypersonic missiles.
Doemestic rocket fuels etc.
Australias small population means our military is going big in AI drones and missiles.
Well LNP were but knowing Labor past they will cut our military and destroy it all.
Ned yes I’m aware or JORN and anyone with half a brain knows that no one is going to invade Australia, just carry out activities to keep us out of the game. As for the rest of your comments - it’s all research. There is nothing concrete that can be deployed today.
Finally as for your comments on the LNP yep we have handed over billions of dollars to foreign owned companies to provide equipment designed to fight a war in Europe and to counter insurgents. We still not have developed the infrastructure in northern Australia to sustain operations in our north!
Our near neighbours can legitimately allow a foreign power to base shorter range missiles to our north and except for invading them there is little we can do!
And you can blame all of that on the LNP who tried to screw one of our new near neighbours out of oil and gas and another which has been allowed to run extremely loose! While we were spending billions on wars in far away places we also cut aid and therefore influence to our near neighbours!
Like I said nobody wants to invade us - why would they we sell them what they need. All anyone would want to do to us is keep us away from the main game.
Cheers Ned
@@nedkelly9688 Nope both LNP and labor are increasing military spending the only one that want a reduction is the greens and nobody likes the greens.
@@ipman3249 Labor has always cut military spending everytime they get elected actually.
No one believed that anyone would take the Maginot Line until Guderian made his way through the Ardennes
Just discovered this channel and wow! Gotta give it up to Cappy. You just got a new subscriber.
This largely depends whether their surveillance, target and targeting kill chain is up to scratch.
That's harder to quantify without any combat experience.
What do you think they do all day. Play cards and drink tea?
No they practice every single day in real life scenarios. They abre firing their missiles almost every day and test them against every scenario.
@@danwelterweight4137 do they practice with an opponent actively engaging in electronic warfare, hostility to recon assets in the area, jamming etc?
Maybe they do, I don't know, but its very hard to conduct actual combat exercise these days without be detected. Yet stories of live exercise is very rare, excluding high profile events like ones involving Nancy
@@Baz.007 carrier groups are huge and noisy both acoustically and on the EMF spectrum. it'd be pretty easy to figure out roughly where they are.
@@Baz.007 when is the last time that any country has ever engaged in electronic Reconicense and Such kinds situation i don't remember uncle sam fighting any Democracy unloving nation that had any or few such sophisticated systems
@Baz N I think your point is spot on, regarding China's lack of combat experience. I am also skeptical of claimed military capabilities in any totalitarian regime.
I suspect one of the reasons Russian troops fared so badly in trying to take Kyiv early in the war is that Russian generals were afraid to be open and honest about Russian ground forces' limitations. Not that it kept them from being relieve of duty then jailed; it merely delayed the inevitable.
The U.S. did the same in Afghanistan. Every commander over there said we were "making progress" and it was a complete lie. When General Shinseki recommended 200K troops for OIF-1 in 2002, he was fired by Rumsfeld. None of the other Joint Chiefs resigned in protest.
Building solid, integrated combat arms capabilities is a lengthy, difficult and costly process. This process must be evaluated using objective measures, to ensure that there isn't a gap between stated and actual capabilities.
I'm not a China analyst, but it seems apparent to me that today's Chinese society and political culture is not one that readily lends itself to frank assessments of its military capabilities and limitations.
I don't see point of limiting short range missiles?! You would think the long range ones would be the problem
The point of limiting short range missiles is this: In the event of nuclear launch, say Russia and America both think the other launched first and both launch within a minute of each other - the air is filled with the end of civilisation and if no-one does anything, civilisation across the globe ends. Long range missiles are in the air for long enough to negotiate both side turning their missiles into harmless ballistic lumps of metal that crash into the sea or burn up in the atmosphere - still not pretty but it’s not the apocalypse.
Short range missiles are in the air for just a few minutes. Do you really think, even with interpreters already in place and the phone calls being made the second the launch happens, that 6 minutes is long enough to broker an agreement and send the command to deactivate all the missiles in the air? Russia and America certainly didn’t think so!
If you are curious about trucking over harsh terrain but don't want to do it yourself and get actually stuck, there's a game called snow runner which is basically that, driving semi trucks over muddy icy rocky wet steep terrain to get cargo to places. Tldr trucks like those will be slow and get stuck easily.
Snowrunner is strangely the most boring and fun game I've played in awhile, It's addicting.
unfortunately i lost an SUV driving in muddy terrain, it got stuck in lowland when the tide was rising and by the time i got unstuck the tide had already started coming up, i had to make a mad dash for the other side of the beach where the road came around the marsh. but the tide had already climbed to high, i was stuck. with the tide coming in fast i made a mad dash for the other side, driving as fast as i possibly could, but i didnt have enough momentum to make it to the other side of the beach, my car got swept away. unfortunetly i took a $25,000 hit that day and it was probably the saddest day of my life. i ended up floating for a couple minutes and was rescued by some mexican fishermen, they didnt speak english and i was soaking wet with salt water, i nearly died, and i ended up going through a seriously sketching city in mexico soaking wet with only 1 shoe, i didnt even have a shirt, i was wrapped up in a fisherman's blanket, luckily i managed to find a guy with a van who agreed to drive me to the border after i payed him $100, i crossed into USA at the border at Brownsville Texas.
also the area where i lost my SUV was Boca Chica Beach, Starship looks great... im still never going back, fk that place.
@@kitkat47chrysalis95 one of the things you learn in snow runner is you gotta be careful about deep water if you dont have the right equipment your engine could drown or you could start floating away etc. even if you are already good at off roading you could learn a thing or two without a real consequence, in that sense its practically a simulator. playing it ive done that where i was say crossing a river and the current flips my vehicle over and carries it to deeper water where there is no coming back.
@@kitkat47chrysalis95 isn't boca chica in USA?
@@moonasha yeah it's in USA, right on the border with Mexico
Thank you for the content updates on everything Chris
Commies do love their purges…
All the best to everyone
The point at the end about not having been used in theatre - I suspect that may be more significant than most think, I'd not thought of it before (usually we think only of test cycles). Having to counter tracking, drones, ECM (if such things affect missiles, I'm presuming there's some electo-shenanigans pouring out of a Growler or similar)... The flat and smooth firing requirement can't be an easy one to satisfy either. If there's a SHTF situation and they do decide to light them then I'd suspect it would be in some haste and with a degree of disorganisation (usually from a political imperative driven by a severe internal sense of insecurity). TBH though I've only got what I see on discussion panels, etc. to go on here but it seems logical.
I don’t think the growler is in use any more. They use that modified super hornet (f18). But great point about the electro jamming
The himars system is definitly doing damage in Ukraine against Russia. If that's any indication of how effective these systems are. It makes sense why China is prioritizing these types of weapons.
@@YTStopCensoringFreedomOfspeech so it's the accuracy and shoot'n'scoot elements which make that thing so effective? It sounds like an impressive device indeed
@@davocc2405 Look at the list of generals killed so far by the Ukrainians.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=During%20the%202022%20Russian%20invasion,two%20general%20officers%20is%20rare.
Almost all the deaths have been attributed to artillery stikes from the himars
Well China has had 2 successful hits at shooting at a full-size American Carrier >>
In the desert
Not moving as made of wood
No defences from the mock-up Carrier
Lol
They fired at a mock up wooden carrier by the Spratley Islands I think it was
But the video only shows the target blowing up
There is no video of following in the missile to the target
Funny as in the desert target, the video shows “a missile”. Flying into the mock-up wooden Carrier
But the attempt to hit a mock-up by the Islands in the South China Sea,
Only shows the explosion
No video of the missile track as it hits …..
Hmm,
Oh & don’t forget the EW that the Carrier can do itself Lol
Creating multiple artificial Carriers for any incoming missiles to detect & have to make a choice on which one is the real Carrier & which one’s r just spooky images :)
I think that we must not comfort ourselves from knowing that "China has not fought any war for decades..."
History suggests that we should not underestimate....
See how the newly-built and untested Imperial Japanese Navy of the late 1800s destroyed the Beiyang Fleet and Tzarist Navy....
Nice video as always Cappy👌
Japan had a history of warfare. They fought also in WW1 so that argument is invalid. On top of that China was bad at fighting and Russian empire and then Soviet Union were not so great in military doctrine
@@SaviourSword995
I was referring to the Battles of Tsushima and the Battle of Yellow Sea, which happened even before WW1...
It was the first time that the Empire of Japan used a Modern Navy.
The Russians underestimated their foe....
Great point.Modern warfare isnt about expirience.Its about communications,AI,missiles ....
China's entire defense is literally designed for defense. If China were to use these missle systems to attack another nation. It would require mobilization of a occupying force. China does not have that capability. They could probably occupy Taiwan but that's it. The backlash of this action would be catastrophic. Look at what is going on in Russia internally since the Ukraine invasion.
@@SaviourSword995 Obviously do not understand the history of East Asia. China's war history is much greater than Japan's. The greatest novels and movie games in Japan have the history of "Three Kingdoms", but "Three Kingdoms" records the war in China. Japan before the Qing Dynasty , has always been China's underdog. Japan takes China as a teacher.
Soviet strategists underscored the importance of missile and rocket forces decades ago. China understood that it would be futile to try and catch up to America's advantage in aircraft carriers. Better to focus on technologies that could potentially counter them. It should go without saying that the PLA's explicit goal is to have the capability to defeat America in a global conflict. If not by themselves, then at least with support from other communist bloc countries.
you mean............North Korea and Cuba?
Well they are trying to catch up to America in carriers.
China's goal is just to defeat the US over taiwan, and banking on the fact that it doesnt need to match US's global might but the US might the local region.
China is Just defending their home waters from US..just like Malaysia
@@shimadwan8251 taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines all want to defend their waters as well as the international space from China lol
Thanks Cappy Inc! Two vids a few hours apart. Hey “Inc”…keep making The Grunt shine!!
The PLA I know has a "+" after it and works in my garage making G19/Scorpion lowers. Still love the content.
Hey Cappy, I have been very keenly interested in your videos since you last made an Indian Armed Forces video.. and I loved your unbiased analysis on Russia-Ukraine war too.
There has been intriguing developments these days in Indian military, can you please make a video based on these. There is also a plan on rocket force too.. love from India 🇮🇳
What intriguing developments are you speaking of?
@Tanim Islam Be glad we aren’t talking about your Junk Fighter 11 Gen Spacecraft.
Ya, a video on INS Vikrant would be great!
@Tanim Islam common brother 1/3 Rd of your country is under water , and India is helping you way more than your irin biradaaar . And here you are , still begging in front of imf or your irin biradaaar. Iaf uses 40 Tejas and are deployed at your border . We have projects with budgets more than your entire economy so rather than just poking Indians in every comments section look into your country for once .
Ram ram
@@michaelcondon8286 he is talking about the projects which will be done by the foreign defence coorporations...we don't anything by our own as govt has no intentions to revive the small industries so that it could help to boost up the domestic production capability...
As it is intended to be deployed inside their own country they probably already have a list of pre-set sites to be used for launch at any time.
With it only being like 4 minutes since release. I feel like Cappy's talking to me in person.
My sincere respect and support for your efforts, not for the American government.
Truly appreciate, from Nigeria
Top work Capster. Carry on.
The Chinese rocket force concerns me. They have a lot of varieties, the CSS-11, the DF-16, but one worries me more than the others, cause I don't wanna get hit by No Dong.
ما يجب أن تقلق بشأنه هو ، هل حكومتك تعمل بنشاط وبشكل متكرر على استفزاز الحكومة والجيش الصينيين؟
Good show, I hope this the start of a series. Without good coverage of DF17, DF21 and DF26 it won’t be complete.
On top of missals the PLA also has its long range rockets. It is reportedly to have range of 250KM and more. It also has guided heads with accuracy of meters. These rockets are equipped with the PLA army, not RF. For Taiwan, rockets are mostly be used to wipe out large areas of targets. Recently they also reported using drones together to attack ships with rockets. Rockets are very low cost.
Rockets are cost effective counter to US air power
Except when US air power just dabs on the rockets anyway.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Haha HARM GO BRRRRRR
My favourite part of the day lv when the notification bell goes I know cappy dropped another sweet sweet video
Keep up the good work Cappe
A great recap Chris, your efforts are really appreciated! As far as measuring China's new missiles capabilities are concerned I think that would be especially difficult for those of us in "CivLand" to do as there isn't much info available in the open source area.
The fear that our carriers are "too big to lose" (from missiles) is obviously a huge concern but again w/out performance data who can really say. One thing is clearly obvious and that is given China's massive investments in their military and other related fields (not to mention their recent history with Hong Kong & Taiwan) I think that an "assume the worst" approach on our part is more than justified.
I do have a concern with our own systems development efforts and that is the time and resources we've squandered in questionable weapons & doctrines, but perhaps that's better left for another time.
It seems China's weapons are of defensive posture, i.e., denying the US from its coastal waters, except it also would deter Taiwan from gaining independence. So, the real question is how much Uncle Sam would risk helping Taiwan gaining that independence. While Biden is providing tens of billions of dollars to help Ukraine, the US dilapidated airports will get 62 million in upgrade funding. What a joke!
你根本不了解中国，你理解的中国在UA-cam上面。自己来中国看看
@@jinfengjiang6759 嘈捏马歌机趴
I agree, I think you have to prepare for the worst while realizing that China is probably just as much if not more of a paper tiger than Russia. Great skepticism should be shown to their claims.
Solid content my friend, i just found you and I appreciate the extensive in depth research and passion poured into your work. This truly is very high quality stuff and I thank you for looping us in. Keep it coming.
Very good and informative video. China is modernizing and increasing its forces at an alarming rate. They have also completed a new aircraft carrier within three years, something that surprised the US. However, according to American analysts, they are still about 5 years away from their goal in the region.
So we squich now? So we squich now.
@@alanfernandez854 If you say so, I guess you are...
@@FLORATOSOTHON I don't say, I ask if we squich now, before Russia 2.0. I think we squich now.
they have "modernized" but stealing civilian grade tech.
now that's done, and all the tech companies hate them, there is going to be a halt in Chinese improvements.
China hasn't taken part in any wars, because they can't afford to. there economy is still flimsy.
@@charlespk2008 China has taken part in the Korean war, forcing the UN forces in to signing a cease fire that is in effect since then.
They have also fought in a very short war (or large border incident) against the Soviet Union in the late '60s.
They were also many serious border incidents with India, and I think they also fought a short war with Vietnam.
The stealing civilian tech part is ridicules, western corporations moved their production lines to China in the past decades, and by doing this thy transferred significant know how to the Chinese.
The civilian tech is not the only thing transferred to Cina, there were many military equipment, mostly Russian and Western European that are being produced under license in China, while the technology of other military systems was stolen.
Also, China improved the technology it acquired by using its own scientists.
You see, contrary to the American beliefs, there are other people in the world with brains in their heads. The Chinese being 1.3 billion people have a large pool of people to find the ones with high IQ.
Thanks for the videos
Chris, unlike those that brag to be…you truly are fair and balanced. Please work your ass off to get a journalism gig!! I’m not kidding!
the US has learned a lot from the decades long wars it's been involved in..so has her rivalries
Man all the wars that your country fought were against No real threat nation
Another video?!!??! Heck yeah - thanks cappy. Bring more Russia-Ukraine coverage. I really like your coverage.
Nuclear deterrence is extremely different in this situation. The need to accurately hit a carrier at sea at speed goes down considerably if you consider a quick conversion of a tactical warhead to a tactical nuclear warhead which could near miss snd take out an entire carrier group. The key vulnerability is that nuking a carrier group in the middle of an Pacific is vastly different from nuking a Population center on terra firma. The response to a nuclear strike in the Pacific is restricted in that the retaliatory strike would have to be against the population center. Thus the responder is the one creating the escalation where mass casualties are usually the nuclear deterrent.
No, I think that the carrier task force would only be in a vulnerable position if Chinese forces were massing to invade Taiwan. Hence , the response would be to use nuclear weapons on the massed invasion force
@@alfredopampanga9356 you both should never be near The Button. The appropriate response to a nuclear strike is to nuke: no one. Period.
Nuclear weapons use is a positive feedback loop, and as the line goes, the only winning move is not to play. No matter what.
(Front all you want, that's pretty much fine- but don't actually ever do it)
@@lzero6235 Your advice is going to ensure the likelihood of the destruction of our society. Pacifism does not work against totalitarian leaders
@@alfredopampanga9356 cool, let's nuke em then
you need a near direct hit to destroy a naval ship with a nuke.
navy formations are specifically spread out enough to avoid multiple kills.
and the amassed interceptors in such a fleet is a massive risk to nukes.
You are on fire cappy. Keep and good cheers from Argentina. irish italian here. Ciao caro.
14:22 this is a great point, you should clip the next 30ish seconds for a YT Short... equipment vs experience
Are you going to make a video about the conflict with Azerbaijan attacking Armenia?
We Chinese take immense pride in these missile systems. All those military bloggers in Weibo(Chinese twitter) sing the praises million times a day, saying that we can take Taiwan in one day with our missile force, or that we can kill every single US super carriers anytime we like with our missiles. Unsurprisingly, much like the talking points on Russian Telegram before the war, same song different singer: all world leading, world conquering weapons that scared the capitalist NATO shitless. Look how that turned out for Russia.
We are not dumb. In public, We HAVE to sing the praises and clap our hand like a sea lion. However, people could tell that these propagandas are not adding up. In such a complex weapon industrial exercises, no one could go from zero to hero in ten years no matter how much money you throw at it.
People won’t say things that could get them arrested but they are getting their backup plans ready in the back and prepare for the worst.
Edit: I’m not saying that our rockets are bad. No one knows and I hope we never find out (like Russia). I’m just saying that even middle class Chinese people take ANYTHING the government said with a moon-sized grain of salt. I don’t see how our military get an exception.
I don't think you're Chinese
@@barakaobombervsronaldraide3098 how can you tell? 何以见得？
@@lukevin5941 ' Look how that turned out for Russia' ? They have destroyed majority of Ukrainian weapons depot and ammunition sites with their missiles. Even with all the weapons provided by nato, Russia caused a significant damage to Zelensky's boys. Looks like you only watch the one sided news from the western media. Also since when did your government forced you to write positive twitter/weibo posts about your missile capabilities? Also aren't your rocket manufacturing more than 'ten' years old?
Unfortunately, if the decision makers and intelligence services swallow their own propaganda, they may make unsound decisions. In Putin's Russia, the FSB was providing rosy estimates of how well the Russian economy could handle potential sanctions, and rosy estimates of how easy it would be to take over Ukraine. Why? Because of the system - either you provided estimates that said, "Yes, Russia can do anything!" or you get scrutiny.
Obviously, it's not so important when they force ordinary people who aren't part of the decision making process to sing the praises.
But when it applies to the analysts responsible for the reports informing the decision making process ... well, obviously bad decisions can happen.
I hope the CCP leadership sees this risk, comprehends this risk, and does what is necessary to deal with this risk.
My family is Taiwanese, so obviously I hope Chinese missiles do not rain down upon them. But it would be particularly tragic, to me, if such a decision was made based on flawed analysis.
@@lukevin5941 你住在美國？
Would you consider doing a video on the Wagner group? I can’t really find much information on them, like how many soldiers do they have, what’s their equipment like, how are they different tactically and strategically, what’s their pay vs a regular Russian soldier, what kind of crazy stuff do they have going on behind the scenes? Etc. Thanks!
The “Wagner Group” is mostly a western propagandamedia concoction myth. They had to create a “Russian boogeyman” after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict when *TRUE* *STORIES* and information about the Azov Battalion and other *REAL* *NAZI* groups in Ukraine began to reach the west and cause people to take pause and question why exactly the government and media are pushing support for them so hard.
💩🔥🇺🇦🔥💩✅🤦♂️
The Chechen Tik-Tok warriors?
@@jacksoncronin9540 No, not the Kadyrovites. I’m taking about a shady private military contractor based in Russia.
@@seanmcdonald4686 i want to know are there any americans in WAGNER group
@@ChoongaLoonga Did you actually have a point, or did you just want to say something incredibly stupid for no reason at all?
Thanks cappy another great video
great video, very in depth.
Personally, I was scared of Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine. After seeing how poorly they handle actual war, I am not scared of any country that buys hand-me-downs from them. China LOVES to talk big but the fact that they bark but never bite is very telling.
That seems pretty narrow-minded. All it takes is some of their nukes to work for them to be a serious threat. There is no real defense for nukes, despite what some would say about anti-missile systems, they dont seem to be very effective.
Lets see Ukraine is getting money, supplies, and weapons from NATO and other countries while Russia is not wonder how long they would last without that aid 🤔🤔🤔🤔.
China are very different than Russia, china have 4 times more military budget than Russia and it's growing year over year, while Russia itself have way smaller military budget than china and it's declining. And also china is the largest industrial country on earth while Russia civillian industry are almost non existence.
before Ukraine war, many people are very overestimated Russia military capabilities just because they have largest army and nuclear in the world. While forgot that before the invasion, Russia military budget are decline from 88 billion dollar in 2013 to only just 65 billion dollar in 2021.
With that declining military budget, rather than spend their money on cheap but effective weapon like drone. Russia military are invested in "wonder weapon" Such as T-14 Armata, SU-57,hypersonic missile etc. And yet we don't even see their "wonder weapon" In Ukraine war
China used to be exactly like Russia with those hand me downs 10,20 and 30 years ago. But now? China is a completely different beast that makes their own stuff and unlike Russia when they “make” something 90% of the budget doesn’t go into some Oligarchs’s budget thanks to Xi’s anti-corruption campaigns.
Still more corrupt than the US but nowhere near as bad as Russia
Am I the only one who's first thought is that China is overcompensating?
They lack ships, especially carriers and submarines, so it makes sense they're compensating with missiles and rockets.
How so? Then why does the USA spend more on the military than the next 10 nations combined? If China is overcompensating, USA is that on steroids (This is just to show how your point is a value judgement and has no truth to it, I personally support US military spendingas deterrence, but all nations deserve their own deterrence)
@@magnusbjarni They have plenty of ships. Not necessarily large warships, but small craft and civilian vessels that are appropriated for military use.
All solid points but I was referring to something else.
I think it is because Chinese defence strategy is largely defensive rather than offensive. If you attack, you need carriers. Missals are perfect for defence.
The US has been workin on countermeasures fore the DF16 and DF17 for at least 15 years. I suspect they can be defeated with patriot or SM-2 for DF16 and THAD or SM-1 for DF17 as long as there are not so many in a single volume as to saturate the system.
China has bigger SAMs, cruise missiles, and ASATs that can reach higher.
Nice video Sir.
Besides DF-16 go search DF-17, that's the world's first deployed actual hypersonic missile
Can they reach Kalifonia and Portland?
Yes.
Supposedly one of theirs missiles rotated entire globe but then failed to hit target ahahah
I think we give WAAAYY too much credit to China. They are not competent and extremely corrupt, likely even more so than Russia. Further in Chinese culture, they will say things are much better than it is.
Not competent how? Exactly how? In what ways are you personally more competent than Chinese? They can develop missiles with unlimited ranges due to USA and Russia being limited by INF.. If USA Quits INF, so will Russia (if they haven't already in secret). Also given how many underground facilities chinese have built you never know their true numbers.
Always the young Americans that have no knowledge of Chinese culture yet are too upset to budge
Gee I don't know Cappy, why is the people who invented rockets still obsessed with them lmao
Love the double upload
Always love the videos. Keep up the good work.
For such an average infantry man you seem to know about a lot that isn’t average knowledge 👀
The CCP shills would assume he's like Joseph Allen from COD an average infantry man but works as CIA in the shadows
I'm dubious that the mobile launcher would be damaging to the missile. There's lots of suspension systems using active airbags that would absorb most if not all of the transport shocks if driven with care. One would assume the PLA thought of this prior to production.
it would atleast make the maintenance requirements higher if the missiles are very sensitive to disruption from normal vehicle use.
At anyrate, I think the concerns about reliability are overblown. These missiles are solid rockets. Solid fuels are incredibly low maintenance compared to their liquid fueled counterparts.
@@6ixpool520 Agreed
There’s only so much suspension can do with a vehicle with such a long wheel base. It’s not about the ability of the suspension to absorb shock, but the fact that the vehicle will just bottom out of it tries to cross a large obstacle. That limits what kind of terrain it can cross. But let’s not just assume that Chinese vehicles can do something well just because they thought of it. Surely they thought of the sun drying out their tires, but there those tires are falling apart on Russian vehicles.
@@bluemarlin8138 yeah, being long and heavy obviously limits where a vehicle can go but, modern active air suspension systems would definitely allow that MML to go off road on relatively flat terrain. It definitely is not relegated to paved roads. Tires cracking in the sun is a simple maintenance issue, China is not Russia and has plenty of money to maintain they're equipment.
Any concerns about China mobile rocket platforms on difficult terrain still make it worth it since any mobility is better than no mobility with a silo. Easy peasey.
Bunker silos are way more sturdy and defensible than mobile platforms. There are pros and cons
the mobile platform can not launch a very large rocket, which limits the range of the missile.
@@madensmith7014 I would guess they have silos as well, they just won't show them on TikTok because .. that would be pretty stupid.
@@madensmith7014 These mobile platforms are deployed from a very large system of underground tunnels built into the sides of mountains. There is likely no reliable way to attack them.
Dude, you are awesome. I’ve learned so much from your channel
Chris you can't be a real youtuber without a Raid: Shadow Legends promo spot. Congratulations on achieving the dream!
Great video! However, there are a couple really important facts you left out that really deserve to be discussed or at least mentioned:
1. Qian Xuesen - "The Father of Chinese Rocketry". This dude was literally a scientist working for the U.S. who was absolutely brilliant and innovative. Then, the U.S. kicked him out of the country for unfounded reasons and forced him to return to China where he kick-started their rocket program. A huge part of China's rocket development is a direct result of poor American politics.
2. The DF-ZF or Chinese hypersonic missile. America has nothing compare against and even senior military and Pentagon leadership admitted that we have no counterpart and have fallen behind the Chinese in hypersonic missile development.
The Chinese will absolutely overtake us in terms of technology if for no other reason than basic arithmetic. They have substantially more researches, scientists, and engineers working to develop these kinds of capabilities, further more, they are pouring massive amounts of money into these programs starting at university.
But that's OK. It's OK because there is little likelihood they would be used against us unless there was an all out war. Chinese policy at the moment is a defensive posture, and they also suck at foreign policy and soft power. The Chinese people are growing increasingly weary of their own government, and the government officials at the head of the politburo are mostly incapable old men.
That said, China domestically, is in a very similar situation as we are. They have growing discontent, their government has sucked for a while now, they have large groups of people who would be more than willing to create civil war, and they continue to make one poor economic decision after another.
In fact, in China's political system, if you want to become a national leader, you must gradually stand out from the leadership at the county, municipal, and provincial levels. Therefore, to become a high-level leader, you must be at least 50 years old.
These treaties are kinda pointless when the opposition doesn't care.
that goes for all treaties, regulations, and laws. Besides, the treaty was a relatively successful USSR - USA treaty. That's much better than pointless.
"Good Faith" and "China" are kind of mutually exclusive terms. Which is hilarious for a culture that still bandies about the word Honor.
Clearly, we have different dictionaries. To them it means social status and getting your way, to the West it means just or ethical.
@Space Lizard except we sign onto most meaningful treaties and even the ones we don’t sign onto we have adhered to in large part
I am noticing you have ignored their missile trains that lurk in specially built railroad tunnels that also connect to regular railroad lines. Your animation shows an ablative shield heating up on re-entry. That can be hard to see on a radar screen.
I think you should make Missile videos about the midrange capabilities of following:
1. Saudi Arabia: China has already transferred large quantities of missile to Saudi Arabia and are currently building out factories that can produce these missiles on Saudi soil.
2. Pakistan with its midrange missiles and 100 rouge nuclear warheads
3. Iran with significant variety of missiles and so far no nuclear warheads, but they have tested missiles with multiple reentry warheads
4. Israel with significant variety of missiles with approximately 100 rouge nuclear warheads
Hey man I thought knife guy was giving his analysis.
Who's this Chris Cappy guy and what do he do with knife guy?
This cuts me to the core.
I don’t see how any of that is true when just months ago, a Chinese rocket headed to space quickly changed direction and landed on a village. They were quick to cover it up but not after the video was shared online. I don’t expect their war missiles to be all that different.
If they were actively doing tests during peacetime, the kinks would mostly be worked out in the future. The US had their fair share of tracking systems that went for the wrong target, China is still in the process of development.
What you described was from 1996
Would a weak point in the targeting systems be the Satelites? Theoretically would there be a way for the US to just turn them off or shut them down without creating dangerous amounts of space debris? Did I just find out how Space Force could actually be useful? Find out next time on Dragon Ball Z
Sorry
Theoretically and scientifically yes, as GPS signals are fairly weak and can be blocked although with high flying objects the need would be to scramble the signals, however, all that would really do would be to reduce a missiles terminal precision. Sometimes that's a really big deal, like saving a specific bunker or arty battery from being hit, but not enough to save a large logistics base, airbase, etc.
Ballistic missiles with inertial guidance are pretty serious bad news if an enemy has them in abundance.
One thing worth noting is that such large TEL vehicles would not hide easily from suitable munitions dropped from advanced stealth bombers. Also note that US Marines don't readily give kudos to the over-priced Air Force boys in blue, but this one just did.
"Space Force actually be useful?" you really don't know what you're talking about.
Well. Awhile ago there was a certain space craft being used by the air force before space force came into existent. Many theories around the secret spacecrafts uses.
@@mundylunes7755 I think we should be wary about them being wasteful, but useful or not remains to be seen. At any rate, even if they do nothing they are a million times a better investment than the wealth thrown away on climate fear-mongering.
Who knows, in the future we might have ballistic HALO troopers like those imagined by Robert Heinlein. Such a thing would be a nightmare for China.
LOL, you animal!
The recent PLA drills around Taiwan seems to show their missiles are pretty inaccurate. Many missiles missed thier intended targets and fell into Japanese waters.
I mean China hates Japan so they probably did that on purpose but I could be wrong
Obviously they weren’t intended to hit Taiwan , that would cause an all out war
@@damianodonnell5844 they were intended to land close to Taiwan. Hitting Japanese waters would only make their already bad relationships with their neighbors even worse.
@@leileijoker8465 You imagine they were intended to land close to Taiwan, but the fact is they drew dangerous zone in the disputed EZZ between Japan and Taiwan days before lunching them. China hitting those waters is also a message to Japan that China claim those waters as EZZ geographically extended from Taiwan island.
Respect Mr. Cappy!
Cappy I also want to know the other countries ballistic missile capabilities. Like USA, Russia, Iran, India, France and so on. That way we have a idea of how countries doctrine works
SM-2 and SM-6 SAM can also act as anti-ship ballistic missile. Although its warhead is small, it will come down vertically so even if it doesn't sink the ship, it will put it out of fight. Not to mention the new PrSM with its anti-ship capabilities
a HE frag warhead will fail to penetrate even the most basic armour on a warship. so unless you get extremely lucky, it won't really do anything. Also. at freefall speeds, the warhead is too light and will loose alot of momentum once the rocket engines cut out.
@@hughmungus2760 naive of u to think modern warships are armored
@@miraphycs7377 modern warship hulls have minimal armour but enough to withstand artillery shrapnel.
thats why all antiship weapons still use semi-armour piercing warheads.
The reason the DF 21 is not scary is because of a combination of the increased capability of SM 6 and SM 3. Continuing to bolster the fleet with the SM3 and SM6 is the way to ensure fleet safety. DF 21 is a non-proven system That has many hurdles before it can be called a carrier killing ballistic missile.
The targeting needs to be continuous - the time between launch and the guidance system being able to search on the way down means that continuous tracking while the missile is in flight is necessary. Aircraft and submarines are too vulnerable, so the best bet would be a satellite - Most likely a RORSAT (Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite) which are big, low orbit satellites, which means that each sat is taking about 90 minutes per orbit, and at best would be able to spot a Carrier Group on one or two passes. One of the "built-ins" of AEGIS, since it was first conceived in the 1960s is anti-satellite - which it has demonstrated. The RORSAT is a weak link - its path and schedule are essentially fixed - it can change its orbital height, but not its plane - which makes it a relatively easy target.
@@peterstickney7608 A carrier is a huge target. It can be easily spotted from 35,000km up in GEO. But it's so big it can be spotted with over the horrizon low freq ground based radar. The missile itself will have a radar to locate the target once it's at a high enough altitude. It'll also have inertial guidance which will take over once its very close (enough so the ship can't change course). And it will make one or two evasive manuevers when it's 20km away (and about 5 sec to impact). But whether it can be intercepted will depend on details that we'll never learn about for a few decades. But will a US admiral want to put his carrier group < 1500km when the shooting starts?
@@mgronich948 Yea and how many countries have a big over the radar system to do what you say it does.. These are big and haven't heard China has one.
Australia has the biggest and most advanced one.
@@peterstickney7608 Not the only way to spot a carrier, long range OTH radars work as well, geo-sync satellites and they even have recon drones that would do the trick.
@@MGZetta Iknow about the artificial islands.. they aren't very big so their over the hoizon can't be that powerful
It’s doubtful that the Chinese can complete the “kill chain” needed to sink a Carrier
Yeah, if the carrier is 3000 miles away. Try 1000.
@@rs-dp6pr do you even understand what is the “kill chain”? Range has nothing to do with it.
But would you risk a carrier to find out?
It’s a calculated risk. However, a kill chain is a complex chain of events. It’s a moving target and a Ford class actual speed is classified. By the time a rocket gets in the vicinity, a carrier can be 100s of miles away. The US Navy holds its cards close to their chest. Furthermore, in a short time said Navy will count with lasers just in case.
@@diegodelavega1883 that's what satellites, awacs, and using the good old bait tactic is for, with final stage adjusting ability, the chances of hit is high, if they can track they can guide any missile near the target either precisely or near enough for the missile to search and track on its own.
Good info
8:22 small french recon 4x4 armored car used by german, didn't know they where used by them
They have the number of missiles and forces on paper, but again, I'd be curious to know their status based on state of repair and training.
Also makes me wonder what China Really sees as the biggest threat. A Chinese populace with lots of people who know how to use basic firearms (from military service) has revolutionary, anti-totalitarianism potential.
A bunch of missile techs, drivers and vehicle crewmen pose virtually no threat to the state whatsoever.
@@paulrevere2379 vehicle drivers are a threat due to them knowing how the CCP would deploy their armor/artillary.
@@paulrevere2379 Chinese populace are banned from owning firearms and the few that manage to know how to use basic rifles are lack training to perform with what they had consistently.
@@memenadekhanh3992 Do you know what a Chinese militia is? Are there military training in high schools and universities in China? And reserve troops! Check it out when you have time! Sir, China's Civilian Military Qualities
@Space Lizard Are they really ? It's not like political struggle are common in the party and that there's no transparency allowing us to see the real situation. Oh wait, it's absolutely the situation.
They're fine now but if they're ever forced to limit spending in their armed forces or affect their lifestyle (officers/soldiers) it WILL breed discontent.
Really enjoy your content and analysis! Just a detail the US also snatched everything they could from the German rocket program, also scientists who received no punishment aka operation Paperclip! Just saying keep it up 🤠 greetings from Greece
Underrated coment. Many US-americans dont know operation Paperclip and other things like the internment camp for people with asian descent in ww2, because there own "propaganda" don´t tell them stuff like that. The winner still writes the history.
@@Lord0irgendwas have you been to America? because the internment of japanese is pretty common in history classes and there are states from washington to the southwest with museums dedicated to the internment camps. it also appears quite a bit in media, the famous band Fort Minor even had a song "Kenji" dedicated to it and politicians ad high se the president himself publically apologized for it. I see it mentioned on trivia websites, history channels, history UA-cam channels, and stuff like that all the time.
Paperclip is as well documented in media or history classes but still gets brought up alot too. it's in the public consciousness and gets brought up quite a bit in conversations about history.
paper clip was big but people tend to forget that: 1. the soviets did the same, 2. info got shared with European allies, and 3. that the US already had it's own aerospace industry that was BETTER than germanys, it's just that Germany had done more research into rockets and jet engines specifically. To be effective though they built jets with American planes, Anglo american radar, american fuel mixtures, and flew with Anglo american electronics. similar story with rockets, the US and UK had better computers and electronics so they used their guidance systems (in missiles the guidance systems are arguably one of if not the most important part since a smaller more accurate missile is better than a poorly aimed larger missile.
@@arthas640 @Arthas Menethil Hi Arthas, yes i was many times in America mostly in South America and Middle America, but also in the USA if you meant that by America. Its more than 20 yeahr, ago but then the US-Citizens i met where mostly not aware of the "dark" sides of US-history.
Its nice to hear that its maybe change to a more reflected view on history.
After banning books among other things mathbooks in schools becouse they have "critical race theory" in it, i´am not to sure about it. The people i meet where keen to tell me "USA greates land on earth and so on...no no there was no genocide on the native people here in the USA!"
Also Werner von Braun a committed nazi and antisemite was in the 50th and 60th a folk hero in the USA. He personly monitored the manufacturing of the V2. The only weapon that killed more humans bulding it than enemys in the war.
So really hope that, subjects like that get discussed nowadays.
Thanks for the musik hint i will give it a look, never heard of them befor.
Jorge Augustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana sayed same true and matching words:
"Those who do not remember their past are doomed to repeat it."
We needed scientist to go to the Moon. There would be no progress if we killed the smartest people.
Wasn't just nazi scientists set free, but only 100 nazis were ever sentenced for anything in the west, less than the number of blacks disproportionately locked up DAILY in US for drug possession, and the rest were promoted to Nato.
This video also gets the chinese rocket program history entirely wrong. You're not going to develop a modern rocket from a primitive v2. The father of their rocket program Qian Xuesen was a founder of the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab who was locked up under house arrest in the US during the Korean War just like the japanese were interned during ww2. China traded for him with American prisoners of war, and needless to say he was looking for some sweet payback.
How do you do a video about the PLARF (great acronym, "plarf") and not mention the DF-17? Also, many of these designs now have ship launched variants thanks to the Type 055 DDG's extra thicc VLS.
No, 055 DDG have the same type of VLS as all other 052D DDG. You should expect they share the same missile inventory.
Love the back to back content Chris! When are you quitting your day job to pump out daily vids? I might quit mine so I never miss one
Very intriguing.
wait, isnt this outside your usual upload hours? you uploaded a ukraine war video earlier this day havent you? i mean, i appreciate the work, so im not complaining. yes, i do like to get my defense information from a guy in his sweatpants, can i get an unironic hooah?
hooah
PSA: Every Silver Tail and Triple Whistler rocket you popped off last 4th of July to celebrate 'Murica....was made in China.
YoU fEeD thEiR WaR mAcHinE.
So many people do not know where China is. I am 65 and Nixon went to China. My dad thought that China would become a good democracy with social growth/ a free market system . I was 14 or so at that time and told my dad the story of the Leopard changing his spots.
Good and informative video👍
True, new systems that are untested in combat commonly don't live up to all expectations, but to think that way is dangerous, you might underestimate your foe.
missiles are fairly easy to test. They either hit a target or they dont