We Will Never Run Out of Minerals
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- Опубліковано 23 гру 2020
- One of the most popular arguments against mining is that we are depleting a non renewable resource and consequently we will one day run out. Despite it's popularity, that argument just doesn't stand up to factual analysis.
I love that guys like this are making videos, sharing their wisdom.
I love how UA-cam makes it possible to share knowledge with almost anyone on the planet who is interested to learn.
Nicely put Nick. Over time the grade mined for a particular commodity decreases as the value increases. Gold was mined at 1/2 to 1 ounce per ton 100 years ago and now it is 1-3 grams per tonne (0.03-0.10 ounces per ton). As all the high grade deposits get mined the slightly lower grade ones start getting developed. There are hundreds of billions of tonnes of porphyry copper deposits around the world at 0.2 to 0.5% Cu - just waiting for the right conditions (higher prices and depletion of higher grade/more profitable mines).
Yep, that is the big picture. That picture is substantially warped by political and social pressures, but demand wins in the end.
"Higher prices" crush demand. At some point economic activity just dwindles away along with demand.
This isn't the first mining cycle in the history of civilization.
"Never" is a very long time. While it is correct that the elements will not leave the earth and drift off into space, price is not merely a matter of money. Price should be measured in terms of the energy required to obtain the concentration of minerals we need to make products. The deeper a deposit or the more disseminated the ore, the greater the energy required to concentrate it for our use. Discounting recycling, we will definitely get to a point where the energy needed will not be economically justified, regardless of the desire for the mineral/metal.
For the reasons you just described, that is not a point, but a very wide and elastic boundary.
That mean we can keep our jobs as geologist
Absolutely! We will run out long before minerals do!
An excellent little video. What people fail to do is to read the footnotes of those USGS surveys that talk about "mineral reserves"- they misunderstand what the word "reserves" means. The actual appendix to those surveys defines reserves properly, and uses the copper example. In 1970 we had reserves of copper of X million tonnes. By 2000 we had mined more than X, and still had reserves of 2X! Because reserves mean "amount available at a certain price, with a certain technology", as you properly point out. Excellent job!
Thanks very much. The devil is always in the details, but few people ever read the footnotes. Hopefully this video will help, although it does exceed the 2 minute attention span of most UA-cam viewers :(
Thanks for making this video, it's always nice to learn something new - Cheers Ja 🍻
Thank you for confirming a statement of my friends grandfather who was a geologist for oil companies.
He said the same thing about oil. We have more than we need.
It's kind of ironic that the poster child of the run out theories "Peak Oil" will actually happen but not because we run out. We just found more efficient ways to move vehicles around. Oil will soon be used almost entirely as specialist lubricants and chemical industry feedstock at a fraction of the current volume and a price that reflects it's value in those uses.
We have run out cyclically for 10,000 years. The time between Rome running out and our modern civilization opening up new supply with new technology was ~1400 years.
No one is going to pay $1,000,000 for a car on a $100k a year salary.
You nailed it with "economic cut off". Which we are basically at right now.
Even after the Roman empire, humans didn't stop using minerals and society didn't fall apart. Consumption simply changed to reflect the price of each commodity. That will be the future also. It will look different, but we wont go back to the stone age.
@@GeologyUpSkill you should probably title it "we won't go back to the stone age". Roman mines closed enmasse despite high (unpayable) metal prices while Western Civilization experienced cripling hyperinflation. Post Roman Brittain almost lost the ability to make pottery. That's very close to the stone age from an industrial market economy in one generation.
I'd say "investing in exploration is important" might be a better message.
Hello Nick, I'm eager about learning how the mining companies work and how they do get money, especially if we're talking about mining in other foreign countries with a nonlocal mining company, it would be great if you could make a video targeting this topic and explaning it to us young geologist students
That's a very big subject that would probably need a whole series of videos, but it is also much misunderstood so it would be a good subject for a video to clarify. I'll add it to the list.
Great point about the availability of arable land and freshwater being at greater risk of impacting society.
If the energy transition continues to proceed I think the supply and demand issues for many minerals will be problematic over the coming decades. Also it takes a lot of energy to mine and produce metals so pressures to decarbonise mining may have impacts if fuel costs become exorbitant.
I am much less optimistic that some unknown new technology will save us.
Increasing fuel costs will make new energy resources more valuable so they will still be minable.
"We need to de-carbonize"
Okay, lets switch to nuclear.
"NOT LIKE THAT!"
Stuff your fake concern where there's no direct dialing.
Very interesting !!!
Thanks. Reality is in the rocks.
Super eloberativ explanation...
Well said ...the average media person as well as politicians should watch your videos and get much better educated!
Many of the predictions of doom are motivated by ulterior motives. Those people already know that they are lying...
Let's take Cobalt as an example. Cobalt is used in batteries for everything we use. Smartphones, tablets, cars. What happens when we've dug all of it up? Does it reproduce? Or is that it?
Cobalt is a good example because there are very large resources that have already been mined, but were discarded in the tailings because the demand and price did not justify extraction. Now that the demand and price have increased, some of that waste will become economically viable ore. The total amount of cobalt in the earth's crust far exceeds what we could ever use so there will always be a balance between price and mineable grade. We will never dig it all up.
@@GeologyUpSkill Do any of these minerals like Cobalt regenerate over time? Because if it's not like a vault where once you take it out, it's out then surely it builds back up.
@@justinsolomita9283 You're just being obtuse.
Also, there is a "vault" full of free cobalt. It's in space. It's called the asteroid belt.
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I feel like there's a fallacy here. "X will run out" and "X will become so scarce with such low ore grades that it will become prohibitively expensive" might not be the same sentence, but the implications are similar. Global GDP growth and the growth of the global mining industry are basically in lock-step, it follows that if the global economy continues to grow, the minerals will become more and more scarce. Your video does a good job of explaining what that process will actually look like, but it doesn't relieve my fears of the ultimate destiny of our civilization. Where am I wrong here?
It depends how you define ultimate. Geologists have a quite different time horizon to regular humans.
Fair enough. So how long do u give it until copper (or insert the pillar of modern civilization of your liking) runs scarce enough (with demand growing 2-3% per year on avg) to triple in price or whatever price makes it become a hindrance to growth.
@@freeston1 There are so many factors influencing supply and demand that the only certainty is that predictions of price will be wrong.
Exactly mate well said......... likewise According to Al Gore our coasts should be underwater by now !
Doomsaying has been a popular way to get "followers" since Adam was a boy. Mr Gore no doubt had good intentions, and he may even be correct in the long term, but as they say in the futures markets: if you're not right in 90 days, you're wrong!
Does this apply to the minerals on these EV battery minerals?
Absolutely. It applies to all metals and minerals derived from the earth.
Great to hear that. 😄
Its just common sense really!
Is it the same case for cobalt or rare earths ? I hope so 🙏
Exactly. We are seeing a boom in exploration for those elements right now motivated by demand and price. New discoveries are being made on a all over the world weekly basis. The market will be amply supplied when the successful discoveries become mines.
@@GeologyUpSkill Ic 🙏
That guy's cool he can come to any of my parties and tell it like it is cuz that's the way it should be
Thaks Mark. The great thing about UA-cam is that it can reach the world's biggest party!
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The economy depends on exponential growth and exponential growth can't continue forever.
Whatever sweet dream you have for the future is false.
True but minerals supply won't be the limiting factor that grinds it to a halt.
is crude oil a mineral and can crude oil run out ?
Oil is not a mineral since it doesn't have a crystal structure. But it will never run out because it is subject to all of the same economic factors that govern mineral supply and demand.
@@GeologyUpSkill so we can always use oil than ?
Yes. In the future we probably wont be burning it for fuel and it will be more expensive, but we will never run out.
hey but the club of rome says that civilization will collapse in 2030 or 2040 not because crude oil or gas will run out but because there will not be enough to grow the economy and because that eroi or eroei would become to high and they say humanity would die of to 0.5 or 1 billion of the current population i am really scared from that future ?
Makes me wonder why we want to mine asteroids and other planets.
Only idiots do.
switzerland ran out , no mines there
Switzerland mined coal salt and copper in the past and still has deposits available, but finds it cheaper to buy resources from other countries now. That is very different from running out. If imports became more expensive or impossible, they could easily restart mining.
You talk but you donot show us practically. thanks
I am speaking from 35 years of experience working on mineral exploration projects at every stage in the development ladder. The iron deposit I showed in this video is one practical example. There are literally thousands of others all over the world.
ok thanks I appreciate your beatful job . lol
@@wadefreeman7340 and he is definitely lying about minerals not being run out lol