Don’t Change Your Trading Strategy Until You Watch This
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- Опубліковано 27 лис 2023
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Traders often make the mistake of changing their system, strategies, or decision-making based on the wrong conclusions. The typical advice for traders about backtesting their trading systems or collecting trade data is usually wrong, and this can lead to traders making changes too soon. In this video we discuss why that happens, and what you need to do instead to find improvements in your trading.
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They make videos that look good to beginners... Nobody that's a little bit more serious takes what those channels say seriously, on the other hand your videos are here to help us, been watching you for 2 years 🙂
Thanks for watching Phillippe. Glad I've been able to help you!
really thank you for all your teachings. can't wait to see the next video
Thanks for making this available; appreciated the content.
Love it. I think this is so important to learn as a beginner trader. And you did not even get into the robustness tests one should do before going live (like Montecarlo, Forward Matrix Optimization and so on). Sample size is key. Nic, I have followed you for years, and you changed my life =) thanks mate
Thanks for those comments. What you say is totally in line with true expectation of results. I learned all of that getting my B.S. in Physics and have applied those principles to all computer simulations that I develop studying the forex market. To make this work I always use a sample size of 1000 runs; I find too much variation even on runs of 500. And when I do my final analysis after stabilizing the program, I then run each element in my test matrix through 5000 runs. Most of the simulations I develop have an average matrix of at least 2 x 2 (the one I'm working on now for staging in lots is 4 x 2). That's a lot of grinding. Then I go back and run the same simulation through a series of just 100 runs and compare each of those 100 run sets to the 5000 run set. But I don't do any of that first. First I use the ideas in real time with real money enough times to get a feeling for the practicality of the idea. Based on that experience, I can then write a valid simulation or back test model. Then I hit bid/ask with a lot of heat against it.
Sheesh dude... I don't fully understand everything you've said but I did touch on some Matrix-ing for like 2 seconds im. University (MAT103) and from what I understood from that, and comparing it with your application of the thing... well, damn. Kudos bro✊
Regarding data collection (2nd point) - Could you elaborate on that?
Do you mean something like this?
. Day
. Session
. Entry Time
. TP/SL Time
. TP/SL in PIPs
. DD Time
. DD in PIPs
. Max RR
...
-- Then pull up averages from the collected data --> analyze similar cases --> Improve --> Re-backtest with the new data (repeat until the model is profitable)
Amazing video, as always!
Thank you Nicholas!
Thanks, just bought the forex tester 5, 3 months ago. And it speeds up my trading process
I think that 10 trade example that you use would worked good NOT if you were testing for sample method, but trying to find and get rid of bad trading behavior or find out what mistkes you been making while you trade.
Very cool, thanks for the interesting video.
Thanks!
thank you, that is really helpful 😊 I didn't know I needed that many, could I ask a question though say we have a 470 trade over 5 months does that equation change because the time isn't long enough?
Changing a 15% improvement in your current strategy gives you better result of profit +50%… this is how your edge works in a better way
a sample of ten is obviously a joke but the benefit to a beginner of journalling like that would be that they actually do learn to journal and reconsider the fails, and maybe get a perspective that enables them to see that some wins are just flukey
We want videos on estimating probabilities 🔥😢
i think you should do reaction videos on these vids😁
this guy sure knows wtf he is talking about