Will NVIDIA Stock Crash? [When AI Demand Dries Up]

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  • Опубліковано 5 жов 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 111

  • @Nanalyze
    @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

    You need to be subscribed to this channel before reading the below comments. Sorry, we don't make the rules.👮
    ua-cam.com/users/nanalyze

  • @FoundingFathersUSA
    @FoundingFathersUSA 7 місяців тому +12

    They said no one would want a computer in their home. Around 1983. An investment in Intel at that point…

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Sounds like you might enjoy our piece on "the next Intel": ua-cam.com/video/HHrHDbMzlQw/v-deo.html

  • @zeroz88
    @zeroz88 7 місяців тому +20

    "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
    -Peter Lynch

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Good point. It's why investors ought to have rules that dictate when they sell as opposed to trying their hand at market timing.

    • @KrustyKlown
      @KrustyKlown 7 місяців тому +1

      @@Nanalyze as long as your "Selling Rules" aren't based on perceptions of market timing.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Rules imply objectivity which reduces market timing risk

  • @rxshred
    @rxshred 7 місяців тому +29

    Wrong! NVIDIA is NOT over priced. It’s trading at 35 forward PE and growing over 100% yoy!! Your analysis sounds like every other so call analysts who doesn’t read the financial statement!! It’s frustrating to keep hearing people make the SAME FALSE statement over and over again!

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +13

      We got you covered chief. Here's a video we did recently that shows how one might go about demonstrating NVIDIA is fairly valued. (Spoiler alert - it doesn't involve screaming at people in YT comments sections). ua-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/v-deo.html

    • @patric1337
      @patric1337 7 місяців тому +1

      alright boss whatever you say

    • @gabrielschwarz5457
      @gabrielschwarz5457 7 місяців тому +1

      Believing Nvidia might be overpriced is blasphemy. Where is that point in the hype cycle ? Right. Nowhere. Lets go long nvidia

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      @@gabrielschwarz5457 Hero or zero is ultimately how wealth gets created AND preserved.

    • @kurniawanms2
      @kurniawanms2 7 місяців тому

      NVDA will be $3000 by the end of the year. Bigger than MSFT. All in NVDA now

  • @azulsimmons1040
    @azulsimmons1040 7 місяців тому +3

    I wonder how high the valuation can go and what revenues will be needed to maintain it once the growth slows.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Wonder what the "new normal" will be for data center revenues

  • @ckishore234
    @ckishore234 7 місяців тому +7

    NVIDIA is the leader of AI, there are no buts and ifs 😊. AI is not in the hype cycle.. it’s at the verge of breakout into real world.. unlike other fads, SORA and plethora of other breakthroughs showed potential of it already..

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +2

      So this time it's different?

    • @patric1337
      @patric1337 7 місяців тому +1

      heard the same story with crypto at its peak during the last bull run

    • @GrindThisGame
      @GrindThisGame 7 місяців тому +2

      The internet was a lasting positive change but it went through a bubble. I agree AI will be amazing as well but I think we're a bit over extended right now.

    • @ckishore234
      @ckishore234 7 місяців тому

      @@patric1337 Have you seen major mainstream companies trying to spend Billions to reinvent themselves in crypto space!!? I guess not.. there may be short term pullbacks.. but I feel bad for most retail investors selling out of their NVDA stock just because some Joe who held it since many years trying to trim it. Every stock has risk, I think holding NVDA for long term is worth the risk

  • @jrsands
    @jrsands 7 місяців тому +2

    There’s no hype in Nvidia stock price. It’s free cash flow is a torrent. Its customers are some of the strongest companies on the planet. Nvidia has clear vision into the next year.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      This video helps explain how one can easily make the NVIDIA valuation argument in either direction just based on inputs. (ua-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/v-deo.html) Gartner's hype cycle didn't feature NVIDIA, it was referring to generative AI. Microsoft user? Go give the largest tech company in the world's AI product a try. Beyond worthless. That's immaturity. AI has tremendous potential but is seeing a lot of hype right now. Notice how suddenly "AI stocks" are coming out of the woodwork? There are many other reasons to believe AI is hyped beyond just NVIDIA's valuation which can be argued as high or low depending in how you torture the data.

  • @IATotal
    @IATotal 6 місяців тому +2

    And yet, this time is different; there is nothing in history to compare with what is happening now, not even the Industrial Revolution. We are facing a technology that will replace millions of jobs, and it is already doing so-graphic designers, photographers, filmmakers, writers, drivers, programmers, lawyers, accountants, and a long etcetera, even financial UA-camrs. It may soon encompass all possible human professions. And where is all that money going to end up? Precisely with the companies that lead the field of AI. We must remember that we are only seeing the beginning, and what AI does today is the worst it will ever do-it can only get better and better. As humans, we have no way to compete against that. Why do companies like Meta and many others, which by definition are technology companies, grow despite massive layoffs of tech staff? Here is the answer.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  6 місяців тому

      Nobody is denying the potential of AI. We're merely pointing out that it will go through a hype cycle like every other technology before it. That's human nature.

    • @IATotal
      @IATotal 6 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze I disagree, we are not seeing a hype cycle, we are seeing only the begining of this revolution, and as I said I think we can't compare this to anything in human history

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  6 місяців тому +1

      @@IATotal This video points to some very specific examples of extremely hyped AI stocks, some of which aren't even AI stocks. (ua-cam.com/video/CK8u0wytjEQ/v-deo.html) Expect pretenders to come out of the woodwork. Blindly moving forward without being able to identify hype isn't going to bode well for people's portfolios.

    • @IATotal
      @IATotal 6 місяців тому

      ​@@Nanalyze Thnks, I will check it

  • @bpolat
    @bpolat 7 місяців тому +4

    At the end, more companies will produce custom chips for training for AI. When you are making billions, other companies are not going to sit and watch. If Nvidia would be a hardware manufacturer like Intel or Taiwan semiconductor then would have stronger moat as soon as someone else design faster, better, cheaper chip then net sales will do down. I think, for next 12 months it is still bullish for Nvidia but long term it is bearish.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Hard to say on the competition side. All eyes on AMD, something we covered here: ua-cam.com/video/SGOumcdPtLw/v-deo.html

    • @bpolat
      @bpolat 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze Thank you.

    • @RajDeelish
      @RajDeelish 7 місяців тому +1

      That's hilarious. Competition is soooooo far behind. NVDA has been at this for decades. You don't just decide to design a chip and start selling it overnight. How many years did it take other EVs to chase down Tesla? 6-8 years and Tesla still owns the market.

    • @bpolat
      @bpolat 7 місяців тому +1

      ​@@RajDeelish Google already using their own chips and Microsoft deploying this year their custom design chips manufactured by Intel and AMD is much older company than Nvidia. Tesla is producer of EV not only design them. Design is much more easy to do than manufacture.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      @@RajDeelish "What about Tesla" arguments don't hold water. Please try to add more value with comments as we run a tight ship and already have enough vapid remarks on this video. When you're a high-margin leader, that's when you should be worried about competition the most.

  • @MrMentalpuppy
    @MrMentalpuppy 7 місяців тому +1

    Between the hype and the perfect concoction of hardware needs, Nvidias price makes sense for now, albeit probably a bit overvalued. It is normally the case that where there is money, competitors will follow. Asml or Tsm may be the exception due to the large barriers of entry, but I don't believe Nvidia tech has the same staying power. Just an uninformed mans opinion, but I think the market is overweight in future expectations for Nvidia. Perhaps one final hype wave before things start taking a break. We are in the trillions now, its not very easy to keep the price sustained.
    Great vids, as always. Keeping things simple is clever. Also, saw your comment on the PEG ratio, informed as always.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Sensible comment. We've come to expect them from @MrMentalpuppy ;) And thank you for the kind words. Our guiding light is simplicity. Investing doesn't need to be complex.

  • @mikebuchanan7610
    @mikebuchanan7610 7 місяців тому +2

    Anybody can go over the numbers from quarter to quarter. I do that, too, but what do you know about the company? Obviously not much if you think Omniverse has anything to do with gaming. Your understanding of the company is about as deep as puddle. It's not vague. You're just making assumptions without doing your homework.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +4

      Excellent hard-hitting critical analysis of our piece. Are you looking for employment by chance? We're actually hiring for an armchair quarterback type whose main strengths include leaving drive by criticisms without fully comprehending the material that was presented and responding to it in a manner that benefits our sophisticated audience of investors. Let us know if you're interested and we'll put you in touch with Gwyneth in HR. Lots of great benefits including Hawaiian shirt Fridays.

    • @mikebuchanan7610
      @mikebuchanan7610 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze Were you sophisticated enough to understand the opportunity you had in 2022, or do you just like complaining after the fact?

    • @mikebuchanan7610
      @mikebuchanan7610 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze Let me guess. You were the "don't fight the Fed, bro" type, right?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Looks like you just enjoy arguing with people so we'll leave this one alone. Anyone who is the slightest bit familiar with our firm knows our past record with NVIDIA.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      @@mikebuchanan7610 You don't have to say the same thing over and over. We heard you the first time. If you were reading Nanalyze you wouldn't have been so late to the game mate: www.nanalyze.com/2016/11/artificial-intelligence-stock/

  • @matthew.m.stevick
    @matthew.m.stevick 7 місяців тому +3

    This time it literally is different. It’s backed up by reality and fundamentals. Nvidia shouldn’t be mixed up with a Bored Ape now kids

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      If promising technologies were a night club, NFTs wouldn't even be allowed in the queue

    • @thusomatejane
      @thusomatejane 6 місяців тому

      I agree with you 100 %

  • @donchernoff2856
    @donchernoff2856 7 місяців тому

    On a not quite related topic, what about Apple? Are they at or past their peak? When they cancelled their car they said they would devote those resources to AI and make some kind of announcement at their next big event in a few months. Will they get a huge bump up because of the AI hype, or not?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Hey Don. We haven't covered Apple here though that might be something we look to do in the future.

  • @ram_the_goat4680
    @ram_the_goat4680 7 місяців тому +1

    Nvidia conducts GTC summit every year where they unveil their new products. Their products released gives a pretty good idea of their goal, are the products enterprise focused( data centers) etc. This year, they have it on March 18. They are claim in their developer newsletter that they are releasing products with huge bump in performance and It’ll be data center focused. This event is a good point to decide to sell Nvidia.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      We exit disruptive tech stocks for two reasons - if revenue growth stalls or if our thesis changes. Both are highly subjective. You can see our thought process in pieces such as this one (www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/nvidias-growth-stalling/) where we analyze revenue stalls and try to understand what's happening. Selling a stock is not a binary event, and we also trim overweights so that we're capturing alpha as time goes on.
      Lots of companies do the razzle dazzle during product intros but we look for traction in the form of revenue growth - the ultimate ground truth. Thank you for the comment and heads up on March 18th! Very useful info.

    • @ram_the_goat4680
      @ram_the_goat4680 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze Very insightful. Nvidia’s gaming sector has taken a backseat for now. In the last iteration of Nvidia’s new product release, their products for gaming sector was an after thought. From their claims this year, most of which is directed towards their Grace CPU and Hopper GPU, which is their High Performance Computing systems for Data Centers and towards LLMs. Gaming sector doesn’t need ultra high end performance devices. It needs affordable GPU with decent performance, which has not been Nvidia’s priority now. For now, I agree that data centers are where Nvidia could cull their revenue growth.

  • @JustStartingOut-nt8ve
    @JustStartingOut-nt8ve 7 місяців тому

    I started to really like your contents. Could you explain the key difference between your free contents and the premium contents?
    JFYI. In the past when I paid to subscribe other newsletters, their premium contents did not really have huge advantage over free contents. Figuratively speaking, these free contents had the man tree trunk and large branches, and the premium contents had details of small branches and leaves, but these small branches and leaves weren't good firewood (significant source of energy or wealth). The most interesting parts were the big ideas that were in the free contents. So, I'd like to understand what kind of value your premium contents provide over free contents.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +3

      Great question. So we produce about 3 new research pieces a week (added to about 2,400 pieces already produced). We provide paying subscribers with "article summaries" that follow each article. These supplement our flagship Nanalyze Tech Stock Portfolio report which contains our own 30-plus tech stock portfolio which we review every quarter with annual subscribers.
      Our flagship report is supplemented by an Excel tech stock catalog which contains over 460 tech stocks with our simple proprietary ratings, valuation ratio including historical date, essentially lots of useful data. Our New Money report contains 10 disruptive tech stocks and 10 dividend growth stocks we find most compelling. All subscribers have access to our Discord server and we run a tight ship to make sure value is being added.
      As a bonus, we have our Quantigence dividend growth stock report where most of our own money is invested - in 30 dividend growth stocks. For Premium annual subscribers, we offer trade alerts that cover over 100 stocks (sent on drops of 15% or more or also discretionary). Every week or so you'll receive our Premium newsletter where we talk about new products and reports under development.
      Paying subscribers drive our product roadmap and we have over 100 testimonials that we're presently compiling on a single page. The subscription products are fairly priced so everyone can have access to tools that help them become better investors. And probably the biggest value is that we talk directly with our customers - constantly - and make sure they have what they need to become better investors. (Takes sales hat off.) In short, our UA-cam videos are simply a small taste of what we offer. ;)
      Questions? Drop us an email anytime. We're here to help. Joe P.
      www.nanalyze.com/subscription-plans/

  • @shefudgrupa
    @shefudgrupa 7 місяців тому +3

    i also understood they are interested in building a custom ASIC division (maybe in preparation for the "inference" market).

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Interesting. Didn't know this. I think it was Synopsys that said eventually all these AI factories (for large companies at least) will have custom built AI chips. That might help explain the move into ASICs. Joe P.

    • @shefudgrupa
      @shefudgrupa 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze if you check their job listings ( at least in the past year, when I did), they were hiring a lot of ASIC design and verification engineers for SoC.

  • @GrindThisGame
    @GrindThisGame 7 місяців тому +1

    Nanalyze, I love your spicy sarcastic replies :)

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Good feedback, thank you. People derive as much value from the comments section as they do the video. Our channel is unique in that respect. We want to keep things informative and entertaining, just like our videos ;) Joe P.

  • @gabrielschwarz5457
    @gabrielschwarz5457 7 місяців тому

    Great video ! Like suggesting Microsoft might be overpriced in 2000 👍👍 took them 15 years to get back to those levels

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      The video was was about the company strategy, not the stock. This was our piece on the stock's valuation: ua-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/v-deo.html But before you watch our valuation video, watch this one first ;)

  • @josephpeter2000
    @josephpeter2000 7 місяців тому +1

    Next milestones are chip below 1 nm

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +3

      At some point quantum physics has to keep us from going any smaller, no?

    • @GrindThisGame
      @GrindThisGame 7 місяців тому

      lightmatter (for inference) photonics is probably next. @@Nanalyze

  • @thestockfiend9967
    @thestockfiend9967 7 місяців тому

    Can u do big lots?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Can u be more specific?

  • @patric1337
    @patric1337 7 місяців тому +1

    This comment section is wild. The irony of all these comments being generated by Nvidia bull AI bots 😂

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +2

      Ain't it though? Many of the NVIDIA bulls you see coming around leaving shallow comments are the bog standard cheerleader types who get caught up in the hype and who (some at least) don't really want to become better investors by debating the merits of a stock. Your biggest position should be the one you're most critical about, which is precisely why we made this video :) Joe P.

  • @KrustyKlown
    @KrustyKlown 7 місяців тому +4

    "When AI Demand Dries Up" ??? ... that's a REALLY STUPID Assumption, based on total ignorance of AI. Such comments remind me of the Internet back in the 80's, when most people could not envision computers shifting from "computing" to being connected communication devices engaged in Trillions of dollars of commerce.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +4

      You're right. AI chip demand will continue until infinity. We're all much wiser because of the time and thought you put into this insightful comment.

    • @bpolat
      @bpolat 7 місяців тому

      Maybe AI chip demand goes up but more companies will produce.

    • @patric1337
      @patric1337 7 місяців тому +2

      the internet and AI are two very different things.

    • @pandoorapirat8644
      @pandoorapirat8644 7 місяців тому

      As a Treckie i would say if our civilisation looked like the borg....

  • @Sicksociety334
    @Sicksociety334 7 місяців тому

    I still have my doubts about “AI” and how it’s continuing to be redefined. Right now and last year the work on AI propped up markets and now the big 7 are running the financial boat. Who said AI is possible. Maybe there are limits to what we can achieve. What happens when we realize these limits have been reached ? There is a lot of emotion in many of these comments, many long stances just short of “ moon “ comments. I’d say if you made your money you’d want out ( the nanalyze guys have done that ) if you are currently buying expecting to make money …. Good luck but I wouldn’t own it outside of indexes. Emotion and the stock market are not great combinations. Anyhow I hope the best and will be looking for your color of Pom poms

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      Good thoughtful comment @sicksociety334. We've been covering for several decades and have lost track of how many hype cycles there have been. AI is no different. The ultimate potential of AI is extremely promising, but when everything becomes an "AI company" or an "AI stock" then there will be a phase when the real offerings break away from the pretenders. We've been meeting with AI startups across the globe for the past seven years and saw many promising business models. For retail investors, they need to tread carefully. Those looking at NVIDIA now as a possible investment need to believe that NVIDIA will be expanding beyond just data center revenues because that will allow them to sustain their size over time and maximize the value they extract from the opportunity. Another 50% rise and this will be the largest company in the world. They won't stay that way if they're a one-trick pony. And you have correctly noticed the number of cheerleaders coming around. Many of these two-sentence wonders are being told "add value" and their comments deleted because our audience deserves better. It's never a good omen. Once they learn that waving pom poms doesn't create wealth they'll then be able to become investors, not speculators.

  • @jeffrose5622
    @jeffrose5622 7 місяців тому +6

    NVIDIA will easily double from here. Those not buying now will regret it!

    • @zeroz88
      @zeroz88 7 місяців тому +1

      You speak like a fool.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +16

      @jeffrose5622 This type of comment isn't useful at all. We're reported you to Gwyneth in HR and she'll be in touch.

    • @thusomatejane
      @thusomatejane 6 місяців тому

      Thats true

  • @davidp252
    @davidp252 7 місяців тому

    NVDA has been in peak optimism for 3 years

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Indeed. To be fair, Gartner says that in the next 2-3 years it will crest the peak. We remain cautiously optimistic.

    • @mikebuchanan7610
      @mikebuchanan7610 7 місяців тому

      Forgetting the crash in 2022? If you understand a company, and the stock is down, that's called opportunity. Did you take hold of it? I did.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      You're kind of late to the game there sir. ;) Maybe you should have been subscribed to Nanalyze so you'd be reading pieces like this gem from 2018, "NVIDIA Stock Price Hits a 52-Week Low - Buy More?" (Hint: we did)
      www.nanalyze.com/2018/11/nvidia-stock-price/

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis 7 місяців тому +1

    ❤❤❤Nvda🎉

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Tell us how you really feel ;)

    • @midwestcannabis
      @midwestcannabis 7 місяців тому +1

      ​​@@NanalyzeI love that Girl. One of the few winners over my time. I feel that it would be hard for me to sell this decade. I can't see them stopping to innovate. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️✌️✌️✌️

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      Set objective rules about when you plan to exit any stock so you don't get caught up in the hype. Don't fall in love with stocks, invest in companies.

    • @midwestcannabis
      @midwestcannabis 7 місяців тому +1

      @@Nanalyze you're right...I need to live life and look at my portfolio ten years from now and see what is looking back at me. (Just Kidding, but maybe🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️) I'll be 60! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🤟🤟🤟👌👌✌️✌️

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      @@midwestcannabis You sound like a fun character. Can we task you with bringing party favors to Nanalyze meetups? :)

  • @jesseholliday3480
    @jesseholliday3480 7 місяців тому

    Crapto? Me sitting on 5x gains in a year

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      (Armchair BSD enters room)

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      You're an absolute legend. Unfortunately, that's not how things end up for the vast majority of people dabbling in that crap. When the annual amount scammed of an "investment opportunity" is measured in hundreds of billions, dabbling is a real bad idea.

  • @pandoorapirat8644
    @pandoorapirat8644 7 місяців тому

    Stop loss... simple.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      If you invest in a company because you believe in their long-term potential, price drops are where you add, not sell.

    • @pandoorapirat8644
      @pandoorapirat8644 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyzestop loss at 50%, then nvidia fall from 50K to to 25K (withouth the splitt).

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому

      @@pandoorapirat8644 Everyone will have their own unique situation and cost basis. Perhaps when trimming you might use a trailing stop loss to capture more but we invest in companies, not stocks. We want to stick with talking about the company.

    • @pandoorapirat8644
      @pandoorapirat8644 7 місяців тому

      @@Nanalyze I believe in AI since i was little child. Thats why only some big disaster would be bad for my NVIDIA Stocks (or reall bubble would happen like FPE 150 ). I will then buy back later if the disaster settles.

  • @30ra
    @30ra 7 місяців тому

    🙏

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +1

      You/re most welcome

  • @mbeliv3763
    @mbeliv3763 7 місяців тому +1

    Hahaha can't stop laughing In your dreams maybe What a lost of time Some people just don't get it Get a life man

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 місяців тому +2

      This is the sort of quality banter that makes it all worthwhile. We do "lost" a lot of time making these videos and yes, some of our MBAs don't have a life. Fair comment.