Yes! Soccer is a completely different beast but to apply this concept would simple rule out the "public" side and then play either the draw or opposite side of the fade.
Average margin of victory in NBA is 11 points. So, +3 +6 or whatever the spread line is statistically offers very little value. And, you have to win close to 55% to profit just playing spreads - very difficult to do. With ML dogs it decreases your break even point and therefore makes it easier to profit playing ML dogs.
I just don’t play public teams. Any team getting over 53% of the tickets I deem public. On order to benefit from fading the public you have to commit to it 100% to benefit from it a majority of the time.
Do you think there will come a time when fading the public wont work? Say the public becomes more educated on sports betting so the public % and sharp % become diluted. If that makes sense.
I think you will have more sharps. The ole adage was only 2% of people that wager on sports turn a profit. I think it’s already above that now - maybe 5%.
teach me please dad!
teach me please dad!
You got to pick your spots
Do you do soccer at all? How do you fade soccer for most value between teams and the draw since soccer has 3 options; 2 teams and a draw.
Yes! Soccer is a completely different beast but to apply this concept would simple rule out the "public" side and then play either the draw or opposite side of the fade.
Why not just say “play all ML underdogs that are +120 or higher”?
I agree!
How would you apply this formula for NFL?
For NFL and NCAAF, if public is on a team I'm considering, I just pass on the play.
hi ? Why do you bet moneyline on the nba instead of getting the points
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Average margin of victory in NBA is 11 points. So, +3 +6 or whatever the spread line is statistically offers very little value. And, you have to win close to 55% to profit just playing spreads - very difficult to do. With ML dogs it decreases your break even point and therefore makes it easier to profit playing ML dogs.
What type of nba fading the public strategy do you use thanks
I just don’t play public teams. Any team getting over 53% of the tickets I deem public. On order to benefit from fading the public you have to commit to it 100% to benefit from it a majority of the time.
@@mgcovers thank you.
@@mgcovers thanks
how do you know which side the public is on? by looking at the odds change?
Do you think there will come a time when fading the public wont work? Say the public becomes more educated on sports betting so the public % and sharp % become diluted. If that makes sense.
I think you will have more sharps. The ole adage was only 2% of people that wager on sports turn a profit. I think it’s already above that now - maybe 5%.