SURPRISE! Long Bond Yields Soar On Fed Rate Cut & 2025 Projections

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  • Опубліковано 19 гру 2024

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  • @DiamondNestEgg
    @DiamondNestEgg  16 годин тому +2

    📢 We want to hear from you! Let us know what topics you want us to cover in 2025: forms.gle/bwmuPMJqytUyd72aA
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    SOURCES & REFERENCED VIDEOS
    1. WEEKLY UPDATE: ua-cam.com/video/PUxnVzwwATg/v-deo.html
    2. Corporate Bond Investing Videos: ua-cam.com/play/PLsv_4H5rP97FcOfmuWfbBZ-C24vZbmbSD.html&si=cZh3uBFdIItgYXsO
    3. Agency Bond Investing Videos: ua-cam.com/play/PLsv_4H5rP97G839te4TerQ0E7jcejhnAi.html&si=MuszS2kkmkaTRL2l
    home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
    www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20241218.htm
    treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
    1. Bond Basics
    What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
    Why Invest In Bonds
    New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
    Interest Rates & Bond Prices
    Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
    Always Remember This!
    Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
    Different Types Of Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
    Seven Key Bond Risks
    Credit Risk
    Interest Rate Risk
    Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
    Inflation Risk
    Liquidity Risk
    Currency Risk & Country Risk
    Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
    Wrap-Up
    3. US Treasuries Overview
    What Are US Treasuries
    Why Invest In Treasuries
    Where Can You Buy Treasuries
    How Are Treasuries Taxed
    Wrap-Up
    4. Treasury Bills
    What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
    When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
    Where Should You Buy At Auction
    Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
    Where To Find Recent Auction Results
    High Rate vs Investment Rate
    Reopening Auctions
    Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
    Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
    Wrap-Up
    5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
    What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
    When Do Auctions Happen
    Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
    Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
    Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
    Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
    Wrap-Up
    6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
    What Are TIPS
    When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
    Nominal vs Real Yields
    Negative Yields
    How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
    Taxes On Phantom Income
    Secondary Market Liquidity
    Wrap-Up
    7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
    What Are I-Bonds
    How Does I-Bond Interest Work
    I-Bonds vs TIPS
    The Annual I-Bond Limit
    Wrap-Up
    8. Agency Bonds
    The Universe Of Bonds
    What Are Agency Bonds
    How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
    Treasuries vs Agencies
    Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
    Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
    Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    9. Municipal Bonds
    Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
    What Are Municipal Bonds
    How Safe Are Munis
    How Are Munis Taxed
    The De Minimis Rule
    Social Security & Medicare Premiums
    Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
    Who Might Want To Consider Munis
    Wrap-Up
    10. Corporate Bonds
    Our Bond Universe Is Complete
    What Are Corporate Bonds
    How Safe Are Corporates
    Corporate Bond Hierarchies
    Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
    How Are Corporates Taxed
    Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
    Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
    Wrap-Up
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
    1. Stocks vs Bonds
    Historical Performance
    Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
    Why Invest In Bonds
    Accumulation vs Decumulation
    Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
    Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
    Nominal vs Real Yields
    Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
    Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
    Wrap-Up
    3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
    Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
    What Is A Bond Ladder
    5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
    Laddering When Rates Are Rising
    Laddering When Rates Are Falling
    Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
    What Is A Bullet
    What Is A Barbell
    Wrap-Up
    4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
    Why Hold to Maturity
    When To Sell Early Before Maturity
    Tax Implications Of Selling Early
    Wrap-Up
    5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
    Why Buy Individual Bonds
    Why Buy Bond Funds
    Bond Fund Considerations
    Key Bond Fund Concepts
    CDs vs Treasuries
    Other High-Yield Investments
    Wrap-Up
    6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
    Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
    Model Portfolios In The Industry
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
    How Much Do You Need To Retire?
    How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
    Wrap-Up
    7. The Decumulation Phase
    What Is The Decumulation Phase?
    Bear Markets & Recessions
    What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
    Decumulation Tax Considerations
    The 4% Rule
    The Bucket Strategy
    The Flooring Approach
    Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
    Wrap-Up
    >>>>>>>>>>
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  • @Huntbox
    @Huntbox 11 годин тому +12

    Thanks, Jennifer. I grabbed the Jefferies Bond with a maturity date 15 years out, even though it'll probably be called early. But should it not be called earlier this maturity date suits me just fine. 20 yr and 30 year bonds do not. The time and effort you take to hunt these down is more than I have time for. So I really appreciate your work. Merry Christmas.

    • @debrabullion3766
      @debrabullion3766 4 години тому

      That one is the most favorable to me as well. I don’t want long dated bonds. 15 years is max.

  • @debrabullion3766
    @debrabullion3766 4 години тому +4

    I prefer shorter dated bonds. The corporate bonds look interesting. Just wondering how safe they are? We are in such a volatile, weird time right now. Thanks Jen. We can always count on you and your team. Merry Christmas 🎁🎄

  • @CageyLeigh
    @CageyLeigh 11 годин тому +8

    Do you have any statistics on how many callable bonds actually make it to maturity without ever being called? I seem to recall one of your videos from several years ago suggested that we never buy a callable bond.

  • @HODIUSDUDE
    @HODIUSDUDE 3 години тому +2

    My reason for moving to T-Bills was to have a monthly risk free income stream while the stock market goes through it's corrective phase. That has already started to play out with some S&P 500 companies trading at March 2020 levels. I'm not looking to lock in at 6% for the long term when stocks are down 35% or more. I'm sticking with T-Bills for now and investing the interest in carefully selected stocks that are trading well below their 200 dma.

  • @nxs0152
    @nxs0152 13 годин тому +4

    You are amazing and your enthusiasm is infectious. Thank you for sharing your vast knowledge!

  • @ScottScott-b4h
    @ScottScott-b4h 4 години тому +1

    I attended Fidelity's fixed income webinar today, and I just kept thinking," Jenns information is so much better organized and presented "

  • @meomeomeomeow
    @meomeomeomeow 14 годин тому +4

    Thank you for all you do for the investment community, happy holidays.

  • @richardtaylor4565
    @richardtaylor4565 15 годин тому +11

    I will always choose the highest coupon regardless of call date…because it softens my risk on the long end, which is risk number 2 mentioned. Short end risk is not as important in my opinion.

    • @bridgetg1916
      @bridgetg1916 4 години тому

      When a bond is called, is the idea to possibly redeem the bond well before maturity if the rate drops, in case that is not appealing to go with a lower rate? If it is redeemed way ahead of the maturity date (after the call and a potential rate/yield drop), is there a penalty for taking your money out of it? Thanks!

  • @SurfCityBill
    @SurfCityBill 14 годин тому +7

    How easy or difficult is it to sell these agency bonds partially thru maturity?

  • @selma5885
    @selma5885 11 годин тому +6

    Can you do a session on after tax investement to minmize taxes i.e. municipal bonds/muni money market and thoughts on this? Trying to minimize taxes in after tax accounts for roth conversions.

    • @bridgetg1916
      @bridgetg1916 4 години тому +1

      Just wondering why there would be any tax issue in a Roth? Do you mean the tax issues at the time you convert from a taxable account into the Roth? Thanks.

  • @avinashk400
    @avinashk400 15 годин тому +9

    Can you not just sell Federal home loan bond on open market? Is it an illiquid security?

    • @garyolsen3741
      @garyolsen3741 14 годин тому +5

      Yes, there is a secondary institutional market for FHLB bonds.

  • @ninelr222
    @ninelr222 14 годин тому +1

    Thanks! If you could also touch, even briefly, what is "Make Whole Call" and how to calculate the risk of a callable bond with this provision, that would be great!

  • @richardhay645
    @richardhay645 16 годин тому +20

    You have a GREAT channel. You are a superb teacher.

    • @ScooterOnHisWay2024
      @ScooterOnHisWay2024 16 годин тому +9

      Nobody on YT does this better than Jennifer does here.

    • @Nicole-zv7ee
      @Nicole-zv7ee 6 годин тому

      @@ScooterOnHisWay2024 Agreed. She and this channel are awesome!

    • @debrabullion3766
      @debrabullion3766 4 години тому +1

      I concur completely!

  • @mikeknoll1130
    @mikeknoll1130 14 годин тому +5

    Love the corporate information, but want to see corporates investment grade 5 years or less.

    • @Nicole-zv7ee
      @Nicole-zv7ee 6 годин тому +2

      Agreed. I prefer the shorter terms, as well. No way would I buy a corporate bond, longer than 10 years.

  • @williamstoker8027
    @williamstoker8027 6 годин тому +1

    How low will rates have to make a 6% bond to be called? What year or % do I need to look at ?

  • @danielmarchisella8895
    @danielmarchisella8895 14 годин тому +4

    Happy Holidays, thanks for all your advice

  • @Nicole-zv7ee
    @Nicole-zv7ee 6 годин тому +1

    Jen, please teach us how to invest in municipal bonds. Thank you.

  • @paulseidel5819
    @paulseidel5819 10 годин тому +3

    None of these for me. I don't want any long dated bo nds

    • @loupasternak
      @loupasternak 4 години тому

      yes, should rate go crazy upside, these are big losers in opportunity cost. They will tank in value. You will be stuck . see TLT for an example.

  • @erickanter
    @erickanter 10 годин тому +2

    The fed cannot fool the bond market.

  • @gabrielw7773
    @gabrielw7773 10 годин тому +1

    People need to start realizing that inflation occurs with economical growth. High debt with shrinking economical growth in a services economy is disinflationary not inflationary. Inflation is coming down. Only way it goes up is if oil, metals and housing go up showing economic growth or checks to households while shutting down the economy. Also don't forget the fed is still in QT process and once they realize we are in a recession they will stop and that's when bond yields will come down.

    • @brianborse3555
      @brianborse3555 10 годин тому +3

      Economic growth would mean more supply which would mean lower prices, the opposite of what you describe
      Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon because only one institution controls the supply of money

    • @gabrielw7773
      @gabrielw7773 7 годин тому

      @@brianborse3555 Nope. Prices always increase while economic growth is thriving. Jobs plentiful and expanding businesses. Deflation the exact opposite. 2000 and 2008 examples.

    • @brianborse3555
      @brianborse3555 6 годин тому

      @gabrielw7773 This might be an issue of semantics: economic growth normally refers to increased productivity and expanded supply, which should lower prices if demand remains constant. Some people conflate growth with demand-driven expansions which outpace supply and hence results in higher prices; but true growth reflects sustainable productivity gains, while inflation often arises from unsustainable factors like excessive expansion of credit and the money supply.
      P.s. Keep in mind that the United States may feel like a closed system to the people who live there, but it is part of a global financial system, which adds complexity to consumption patterns

    • @gabrielw7773
      @gabrielw7773 5 годин тому

      @@brianborse3555 So what happened that started making us complain about inflation in 2020? No problems with inflation until 1 event in 2020.

  • @elipark6105
    @elipark6105 14 годин тому +4

    Currently talks of government shutdown loom. How worried should I be about my ibonds? Thank.

  • @rango9404
    @rango9404 12 годин тому +8

    How does a rate cut make bonds go up!? This is crazy!

    • @edcooper4301
      @edcooper4301 11 годин тому +13

      The bond market vigilantes know that inflation is going to rise and is way higher than the government stats. Large US labor unions are getting double digit raises. So why should anyone accept single digit long term bond yields. Fed only controls short term rates.

    • @franciscodanconia4324
      @franciscodanconia4324 11 годин тому +4

      @@edcooper4301not to mention a number of states have pushed their state minimum wages to $15/hr or higher.

    • @gabrielw7773
      @gabrielw7773 10 годин тому

      The fed owns most of the treasuries. They continue to sell theirs due to QT. They will soon stop once they realize the recession is here. Inflation is going down due to all economic indicators like oil, metals and homebuilders are all falling. Inflation is going down as inflation lags oil, metals and homebuilders, it's just that Fed is still doing QT and will stop once the stock market starts to crash with QE. 70's we were a manufacturing economy today we are a services economy which is disinflationary when you have high debt and shrinking economic growth. You have to have manufacturing and economic growth to have inflation or checks to households again while shutting down the economy.

    • @brianborse3555
      @brianborse3555 10 годин тому +5

      Insufficient compensation for the actual rate of currency debasement, which is being priced into the future value of the dollar

    • @RockawayBeachNY
      @RockawayBeachNY 9 годин тому +7

      Do you want to lock up your money for 10 years for 4%. No, neither do other people, so going to need to pay higher rates for longer-term investors to entice investors.

  • @pinkstardiamond
    @pinkstardiamond 13 годин тому +1

    Are these also state tax free?

    • @steveclarke8169
      @steveclarke8169 11 годин тому +5

      FHLB, FFCB and TVA are exempt from state income tax. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not.

  • @johnpuccetti6019
    @johnpuccetti6019 16 годин тому +3

    Thank you!

  • @go2gym
    @go2gym 5 годин тому

    Can still get a 5.45% MYGA with a 6 yr term from an A-rated insurance carrier. Buy an amount that stays with your State Guarantor Association for it to be insured. MYGAs are the annuity/insurance industry version of a CD but with more options on how to take interest.. Can withdraw a certain amount each year (amount based on carrier), or draw some years and not others, take monthly payments for the term, take all interest and return of principal at end of the term so that it grows compounding, etc etc. No fees, no commissions. Solid, simple product. Good for the fixed income mindset.

  • @peterbedford2610
    @peterbedford2610 16 годин тому +2

    The ten year is at almost 4.6% . Shouldn't this raise MM

    • @rubicon3416
      @rubicon3416 15 годин тому +8

      No. MMs are tied to the short end yields which have been coming down. Mortgage rates are affected by the 10 year yields which are going up right now.

  • @cryptog3509
    @cryptog3509 14 годин тому +2

    My financial advisor got me cooked on TLT

    • @adange11
      @adange11 2 години тому

      I cooked myself too. What they think will take tlt higher ?