Fair rankings. Maybe would move NC to C tier just because governor was so lopsided and the state looks like it’s gonna be more competitive in the future than say Arizona
@@endrocreactive He was, but democrats also usually win the governorship in NC anyway. The real shining examples were democratic gains in the legislature and attorney general seat.
I would put Iowa in the F tier. They have no major statewide Democrat there They hold no house seats and have lost the last 3 presidential elections by wide margins.
Sounds good, it's all about what you want to put weight on. I try to just keep the standard 5 tiers each time to make it simple, but sometimes it does have some very borderline calls.
I feel like the F tier could be split in two or some moved to D (because it's so big). States like Ohio and Florida have about a third of their house of reps from democrats, while others like Arkansas and Oklahoma don't even have one.
You're not wrong, that works. I know if I did that, then some people would freak out about how there's some states in D that are too different, but I hear you.
I agree with most of these rankings, but I'd bump Georgia down to D because Kemp has a trifecta and I'd put Minnesota in A. It's been nearly 19 years since Minnesota last elected a Republican governor. You could make the case for Nebraska going in D because of the 2nd district, but other than that and Alaska, there's not much to debate about honestly. Could that change in a few years? Absolutely, but now, this is almost objectively how it is.
I would put Virgina in the B tier. Ok the Republicans did well there in 2021 which is why it doesn't get an A but downgraded it down to a C over one election cycle is an overreaction.
The real only ones I would change is New Jersey, New Mexico, and maybe New York into B tier. They are strong dems but have shown a lot of movement of late. I would also move Virginia and maybe, only maybe Michigan to B
I agree even when you put NJ at the top, because it will still take a lot to make a red governor there the math is just to short for the republicans there. Good video 👍
The math is there. In the last governor election, the Republican lost due to the northern area, and he performed very well in the southern and middle area. Trump over performed in the northern areas but didn’t make much progress in the south and middle. Combine these two results and you get a unlikely but possible Republican win
I mean technically every swing state besides Arizona and Nevada trended to the left this time. But to support your point, there are different reasons for it. For example, the rust belt was close because it’s always close. High turnout region, very steady purple. On the other hand, Georgia only voted the way it did because Trump had a great night. I don’t know if that makes sense or not. It’s like trump can hold his own in any of the swing states, but Georgia definitely seemed like he needed the favorable national environment to carry him over the line.
NM AND NJ should be in b with MN because they all fit the same category of how you were ranking Minnesota before. If not in B then keep them together in A
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Fair rankings. Maybe would move NC to C tier just because governor was so lopsided and the state looks like it’s gonna be more competitive in the future than say Arizona
Very correct as an NC resident
I have family in NC and they say it’s looking like the state will be competitive now.
Maybe, mark robinson was just a terrible candidate though.
@@endrocreactive He was, but democrats also usually win the governorship in NC anyway. The real shining examples were democratic gains in the legislature and attorney general seat.
Sounds good, you can make a case for that.
I would put Iowa in the F tier. They have no major statewide Democrat there They hold no house seats and have lost the last 3 presidential elections by wide margins.
the state trended to the left relative to the nation and also the trump effect 2028 will tell us whether it will last or not
@@longliveJimmyCarter I don't know what you are smoking. Trump won it by 9 in 2020 and won it by 13 in 2024. It's not trending left.
That fair, it's very borderline given Dems do have the Auditor's office but nothing else.
@PoliticalExcess the auditors office is a trivial office it's not like Kentucky where they hold the governorship.
I agree, but that statewide win is why I just barely bumped it up.
Pretty good ranking, but I'd put North Carolina in C, Montana in D.
If i was making this, I'd add other tiers
Sounds good, it's all about what you want to put weight on. I try to just keep the standard 5 tiers each time to make it simple, but sometimes it does have some very borderline calls.
No NC would be D and Montana would be F.
I feel like the F tier could be split in two or some moved to D (because it's so big). States like Ohio and Florida have about a third of their house of reps from democrats, while others like Arkansas and Oklahoma don't even have one.
You're not wrong, that works. I know if I did that, then some people would freak out about how there's some states in D that are too different, but I hear you.
Pretty gud rankings.
Side note, cant wait for the guy saying he has TDS to show up
Oh, that guy is a piece of work. Republican TDS.
Sounds good
I agree with most of these rankings, but I'd bump Georgia down to D because Kemp has a trifecta and I'd put Minnesota in A. It's been nearly 19 years since Minnesota last elected a Republican governor. You could make the case for Nebraska going in D because of the 2nd district, but other than that and Alaska, there's not much to debate about honestly. Could that change in a few years? Absolutely, but now, this is almost objectively how it is.
Good stuff, hard to really disagree with those few tweaks.
I'm not sure you could make the case for Nebraska in D, it only belongs in F because Dems have no statewide offices.
Id put North Carolina C because they did good downballot and flipped a couple downballot seats
Very true. We did great on the local level too!
I would put Virgina in the B tier. Ok the Republicans did well there in 2021 which is why it doesn't get an A but downgraded it down to a C over one election cycle is an overreaction.
That's fair.
@@dvferyance It's not an overreaction since republicans have been gaining in recent years. The C tier is perfect.
The real only ones I would change is New Jersey, New Mexico, and maybe New York into B tier. They are strong dems but have shown a lot of movement of late.
I would also move Virginia and maybe, only maybe Michigan to B
Yeah as far as trends or overall dominance outside of election wins, I'm with you.
I agree even when you put NJ at the top, because it will still take a lot to make a red governor there the math is just to short for the republicans there. Good video 👍
Chris Christie could do it.
The math is there. In the last governor election, the Republican lost due to the northern area, and he performed very well in the southern and middle area.
Trump over performed in the northern areas but didn’t make much progress in the south and middle.
Combine these two results and you get a unlikely but possible Republican win
Thanks for the comment!
Actually the math isn't that short, since they only lost by 2 percent last gubernatorial election.
Decent rankings. However, the voiceover makes me say, for the first time ever, that I prefer an AI voice over a human voice.
Even if that's the case, that's not something you would want to admit.
Georgia is left trending
Yeah
Pennsylvania and New Jersey are right trending though
until MTG is out georgia's a lost cause
Yeah, seems like it.
I mean technically every swing state besides Arizona and Nevada trended to the left this time. But to support your point, there are different reasons for it. For example, the rust belt was close because it’s always close. High turnout region, very steady purple. On the other hand, Georgia only voted the way it did because Trump had a great night. I don’t know if that makes sense or not. It’s like trump can hold his own in any of the swing states, but Georgia definitely seemed like he needed the favorable national environment to carry him over the line.
Someone’s gotta add up the populations of A and B and compare them to D and F
That'd be interesting.
A and B have about 131 million.
D and F have about 142 million.
@wahguy6293 Pretty similar!
Political do fun video in April fools called Goldwater vs Wallace 1964 election
I would do more of those if I didn't think they would bring in a low amount of views being from so far back with non current candidates.
NM AND NJ should be in b with MN because they all fit the same category of how you were ranking Minnesota before. If not in B then keep them together in A
Yeah there were some real borderline calls on there, MN has a split US House delegation as to why see it slightly different.
No those are different cases because MN has split government and NM, NJ has everything for dems (unified state gov).
Virginia B
Gotcha
Virginia C, objectively.