Sea-Level Science: Above the Water by Prof Benjamin Horton

IAS@NTU Discovery Science Seminar by Prof Benjamin Horton (11 Sept 2023). Here’s a depressing fact: sea-level rise through to 2050 is fixed. No matter how quickly nations lower emissions now, the world is looking at about 15 to 30 centimetres of sea level rise through the middle of the century, given the long-drawn impact of global warming on the oceans and ice sheets. Even under a stable climate, sea-level rise is expected to continue slowly for centuries. Beyond 2050, sea-level rise becomes increasingly susceptible to the world’s emission choices. If countries choose to continue their current paths, greenhouse gas emissions will likely result in 3-4°C of warming by 2100, and a sea-level rise of up to 0.8 metres. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, rapid ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica could lead to a sea-level rise approaching 2 metres by the end of this century and over 5 metres by 2150.
Using case studies from Singapore and Southeast Asia, Prof Horton illustrated the ways in which current methodologies and historical data sources can constrain future projections, and how accurate projections can motivate the development of new sea-level research questions to adapt and mitigate to climate change.