Sebastian puts in the work everyday!! I just wish MARA did the same. They sell shares, buy miners but they mine no additional coin. Tired of the vague “power” excuses. With over $1 billion of liquidity (which has largely come from shareholder dilution) buy some damn transformers already!! MARA stock is down nearly 50% since Dec., even worse, their monthly coin production is DOWN nearly 20%.
With all these bad things around Mara, I am not sure how Mara to Date is one of the Top of all Miners; Cash, HODL, and "yes" even operating EH/s, therefore I would re-consider the approach metrics evaluating these miners. hint; If you replace the in-put Qt-numbers of 31 Dec 2023 for Mara with numbers of 31 Dec 2022 (much worse Qt) Mara would have better or almost equal metrics in the above excel-sheet.
They're shockingly crap...I have smallish in them but alot more in riot and bitf but they're nearly as rubbish.Riot hid the fact a chunk of their pc were faulty ...misleading the market gets hard to forget ....
I hope the gpu bussinss IREN is creating is perpetual and highly sought after. I don't think it's an issue. I don't see the AI business going away... Likely growing and growing fast. This is good for IREN. Interesting projections. Grow baby grow! Really hope bitf and iren make it to 20 eh/s. I trust clsk the most, to reach their goals. Thanks Sebastian.
most compute contracts, especially those in the cloud computing sector, tend to be short-term or flexible in nature. This flexibility is a hallmark of cloud services, allowing customers to scale resources up or down as needed and only pay for what they use. The prevalent models include:
A contract extension for any amount of time is a great sign of satisfaction and trust between the contracting parties. It often indicates that the client is pleased with the services or products provided and believes in the value and reliability of continuing their relationship. For the service provider or vendor, a contract extension is a testament to their ability to meet or exceed expectations, maintain good customer relations, and deliver consistent results. It also provides an opportunity for stable revenue streams and can be a positive signal to other potential clients about the provider's reputation and the quality of their offerings
Hi, just curious about the breakeven price for Mawson. Their most recent cost of revenue ($9M per quarter) and General and Admin expenses ($4M per quarter) and debt payment ($1M per quarter). This is equivalent to expenses of $15M per quarter, or $60M per year (ignoring non-cash expenses: depreciation and share based compensation). If their hosting and other review streams stay steady, those contracts will bring in around $20M revenue a year. So they will have to makeup the shortfall (~ $40M annual) from bitcoin self-mining. After the halving they can be expected to produce around 400 bitcoins a year (about half of current self-mining production). So each bitcoin will need to be sold for $40M divided by 400, around $100K per coin breakeven.
I'm not sure as they have not come and said that they are fully funded to 32ehs. Bitfarms has also stated that they are fully funded to 21ehs. Both might still be pulling on the ATM.
That is a good average price. Mine is a bit lower, I'm current at $1.39 for my average. And maybe that is why I'm not worried in the short term. Yes there is a lot of FUD out their currently. But I like the saying "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when other are greedy". I think this currently applies to BITF.
It more about the dollar..plus some Russell price action with the miners. The FUD with the miners going into the halvening is just another market ploy ..they simply rotate out and in. Not we’ve had had three pumps and dump days..why I don’t buy on green days but it’s just pure manipulation and accumulation..if ya look say Iren ..they are trading more or less at book.
Bitcoin Cash chart is looking similar to the Bitcoin chart from 2014 to 2016. IF BCH goes on seeing gains we could be about to see something nobody is talking about, BCH to $16k a coin and the miners having to decide where to point their hash... Coindance has BCH as more profitable to mine even though it halved last week so any pump in the BCH price will attract miners especially IF BTC doesn't pump as expected. BCH sp could drop away but it feels like it wants to go higher which would be fascinating for the miners
Miners have two options to be profitable after the halving. Either cut cost, be as lean as possible or increase hashrate to add more revenue so that the cost are much lower compared to revenue.
@@SebastianOn Mara stated they average cost per bitcoin as of now is low 20k and that's including energy cost/employee/cost to run the facilities and expect after halving marginal cost per bitcoin is around 46k on average. Your math is sus, it makes no sense that after halving its gonna be 60k to break even when cost to mine is 16k. If the halving doubles the amount of energy to mine a bitcoin how does the cost to break even quadruples?
@@SebastianOn In the Bloomberg interview here ua-cam.com/video/uHCvBCh5HuY/v-deo.html, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel stated that the average cost is low $20k, including energy and operating costs, and will be $46k post-halving. Maybe you should also examine whether your calculation method is correct.
Months after the halving Bitcoin mining is going to be extremely lucrative. Rewards will be at an all time high. People are going to have sense enough to upgrade their miners to sustain the extra demand. Smart wise folks are getting their miners now while they can!! Bitcoin mining isn’t going anywhere. Folks mining Bitcoin will have a safety net of lifetime passive income!!!
HI SEBATIAN its so bad do you think we should sell blockchain mining and cover by selling gold koz the btc is really high and i had some great moves but right now i dont feel it really good on like bitfarm or riot (which have no debt it seems) but you think what you personally sell or keep koz me i can not buy again ok thanks if you answer goodbye
I'm still holding and buying more. I bought BITF and IREN today. You have to do what you think is right. I'm very agressive in my investing approach, because I still have 20 plus years before I retire. I can take a risk.
And they're mocroscopic ...and a dead man walking .And yes they were by far my biggest investment in btc miners or similar and the worst with silvergate( bust bank) and Core who went bust and is now a phoenix from the ashes ... Argo lots of debt still plus old machines that won't cut it after the halving 💀☠️💀
The Miners need Bitcoin to go to 210K sell the Bitcoin they mine to show huge profits on their Balance Sheet to have their stock prices go up 5X to 10X..Opportunity Cost waiting for this...If you Buy BITX stock 2 times leverage Spot Bitcoin ETF the stock BITX can go up 6X if Bitcoin does 3X and goes to 210K...I am still holding my Bitfarms shares and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF shares to hedge the Bitcoin Mining Stocks
The miners are pump and dumps. BITX and BITU up 14% today alone. BITX up 6x from September low. You'll do a 5-10x into cycle top with BITX and BITU, 25-50x from September low to cycle top, meanwhile HUT dropped 50% from December and dropped 60% from July as BTC doubled. HUT 23 to 9 as BTC went from 30k to 70k! When BTC tops you can also play the inverse 2x ETFs into the bear market low. Miners will no longer perform. Smart money is going into BTC and ETFs not failing miners. Long run miners dilute and go to 0. It's a business with many risks that relies on constant new capital. Miners will be around after dilution, private placements, and mergers, but the same shareholders will not. Where is smart money going? ETFs.
Bitcoin Cash chart is looking similar to the Bitcoin chart from 2014 to 2016. IF BCH goes on seeing gains we could be about to see something nobody is talking about, BCH to $16k a coin and the miners having to decide where to point their hash... Coindance has BCH as more profitable to mine even though it halved last week so any pump in the BCH price will attract miners especially IF BTC doesn't pump as expected. BCH sp could drop away but it feels like it wants to go higher which would be fascinating for the miners
The process of Bitcoin mining is truly fascinating, as miners use powerful computers to solve complex mathematical equations and secure the network. It's amazing to see how technology is revolutionizing the world of finance!
Sebastian puts in the work everyday!! I just wish MARA did the same. They sell shares, buy miners but they mine no additional coin. Tired of the vague “power” excuses. With over $1 billion of liquidity (which has largely come from shareholder dilution) buy some damn transformers already!! MARA stock is down nearly 50% since Dec., even worse, their monthly coin production is DOWN nearly 20%.
With all these bad things around Mara, I am not sure how Mara to Date is one of the Top of all Miners; Cash, HODL, and "yes" even operating EH/s, therefore I would re-consider the approach metrics evaluating these miners. hint; If you replace the in-put Qt-numbers of 31 Dec 2023 for Mara with numbers of 31 Dec 2022 (much worse Qt) Mara would have better or almost equal metrics in the above excel-sheet.
They're shockingly crap...I have smallish in them but alot more in riot and bitf but they're nearly as rubbish.Riot hid the fact a chunk of their pc were faulty ...misleading the market gets hard to forget ....
Miners are being sold onto every rally to fill ATM dilutions… we’re in a different market now because of them. Much weaker market in terms of price
CORZ and MARA with same revenue, CORZ with lower cost to operate. MARA with ~$1B more BTC on balance sheet.
CORZ $600M market cap, MARA $6B market cap
hoping once warrants exercise @ 6.81 maybe they build the hodl??
I hope the gpu bussinss IREN is creating is perpetual and highly sought after. I don't think it's an issue. I don't see the AI business going away... Likely growing and growing fast. This is good for IREN.
Interesting projections. Grow baby grow! Really hope bitf and iren make it to 20 eh/s. I trust clsk the most, to reach their goals.
Thanks Sebastian.
Iren short term contract with 500+ H100
BTBT long term contract (3 years) with 4,000+ H100
🤷♂️
Outstanding analysis and explanations. Thank you!
Much appreciated!
Amazing work man!
Thank you! Cheers!
most compute contracts, especially those in the cloud computing sector, tend to be short-term or flexible in nature. This flexibility is a hallmark of cloud services, allowing customers to scale resources up or down as needed and only pay for what they use. The prevalent models include:
A contract extension for any amount of time is a great sign of satisfaction and trust between the contracting parties. It often indicates that the client is pleased with the services or products provided and believes in the value and reliability of continuing their relationship. For the service provider or vendor, a contract extension is a testament to their ability to meet or exceed expectations, maintain good customer relations, and deliver consistent results. It also provides an opportunity for stable revenue streams and can be a positive signal to other potential clients about the provider's reputation and the quality of their offerings
Great work Sebastian thanks 🙏🏼
Thank you 🙌
great content I will also buy some Bitfarms today, good luck everyone.
Great stuff! Appreciate it!
My pleasure!
Wulf mined 379 bitcoin in March..216 were only at lake mariner site..
Hi, just curious about the breakeven price for Mawson. Their most recent cost of revenue ($9M per quarter) and General and Admin expenses ($4M per quarter) and debt payment ($1M per quarter). This is equivalent to expenses of $15M per quarter, or $60M per year (ignoring non-cash expenses: depreciation and share based compensation). If their hosting and other review streams stay steady, those contracts will bring in around $20M revenue a year. So they will have to makeup the shortfall (~ $40M annual) from bitcoin self-mining. After the halving they can be expected to produce around 400 bitcoins a year (about half of current self-mining production). So each bitcoin will need to be sold for $40M divided by 400, around $100K per coin breakeven.
Also remember that as the network hashrate goes up, they will generate less and less BTC over time. If they don't upgrade their fleet.
Has Riot not paid for the 32 hash expected by years end? They have I believe 3 shipments. Also Bitfarms has 21 hash paid for with kat offering no?
I'm not sure as they have not come and said that they are fully funded to 32ehs. Bitfarms has also stated that they are fully funded to 21ehs. Both might still be pulling on the ATM.
Will IREN come down to same break even numbers as CLSK once they employ new miners?
Also do you include AI revenue in these estimates?
Yes, as they install more machines their break even numbers will come down. Also I don't include any other revenues for this.
I love meme tokens season!
can you include GREE? They just reported Q4 with $0.36 EPS
Miners will skyrocketing after 2 to 4 weeks of halving..Institutions are waiting energy cost and btc production after halving for all these miners
i hope so because I'm having Mara and Riot currently
Hey Sebastian my avg for bitfarms is 2.29. On my way to 10,000 shares soon. So much FUD lol should we worry? You seem calm 😌
Update I now have 10,000 at 2.25
That is a good average price. Mine is a bit lower, I'm current at $1.39 for my average. And maybe that is why I'm not worried in the short term. Yes there is a lot of FUD out their currently. But I like the saying "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when other are greedy". I think this currently applies to BITF.
@@SebastianOn thanks Sebastian. I know it’s still early in the game, thanks for encouraging words 🙏
Any ideas when btc halving is over and when we will see miners going up? Thanks
I read you need 35 solar panels to power one mining rig .If only we could go backnin time 10 years
It more about the dollar..plus some Russell price action with the miners. The FUD with the miners going into the halvening is just another market ploy ..they simply rotate out and in. Not we’ve had had three pumps and dump days..why I don’t buy on green days but it’s just pure manipulation and accumulation..if ya look say Iren ..they are trading more or less at book.
Bitcoin Cash chart is looking similar to the Bitcoin chart from 2014 to 2016. IF BCH goes on seeing gains we could be about to see something nobody is talking about, BCH to $16k a coin and the miners having to decide where to point their hash...
Coindance has BCH as more profitable to mine even though it halved last week so any pump in the BCH price will attract miners especially IF BTC doesn't pump as expected.
BCH sp could drop away but it feels like it wants to go higher which would be fascinating for the miners
Bitcoin cash is trash
Was there ever any real doubt that CORZ would come out of Ch. 11?
I don't know....your numbers don't seem to add up. It would make ZERO sense to mine anything
i agree why mine a coin when it costs you like 90K to mine something... Sebastian please enlighten us
@@marbles9420 doesn't add up
Miners have two options to be profitable after the halving. Either cut cost, be as lean as possible or increase hashrate to add more revenue so that the cost are much lower compared to revenue.
@@SebastianOn Mara stated they average cost per bitcoin as of now is low 20k and that's including energy cost/employee/cost to run the facilities and expect after halving marginal cost per bitcoin is around 46k on average. Your math is sus, it makes no sense that after halving its gonna be 60k to break even when cost to mine is 16k. If the halving doubles the amount of energy to mine a bitcoin how does the cost to break even quadruples?
@@CantCookForLife I'm using all cash costs for the break even figure. From the quarterly results.
What did you think of what Thiel said a couple days ago about his break even price after having is $46k?
That only accounts for the hosting fees and electricity I believe. Does not include SG&A.
@@SebastianOn In the Bloomberg interview here ua-cam.com/video/uHCvBCh5HuY/v-deo.html, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel stated that the average cost is low $20k, including energy and operating costs, and will be $46k post-halving. Maybe you should also examine whether your calculation method is correct.
Months after the halving Bitcoin mining is going to be extremely lucrative. Rewards will be at an all time high. People are going to have sense enough to upgrade their miners to sustain the extra demand. Smart wise folks are getting their miners now while they can!! Bitcoin mining isn’t going anywhere. Folks mining Bitcoin will have a safety net of lifetime passive income!!!
HI SEBATIAN its so bad do you think we should sell blockchain mining and cover by selling gold koz the btc is really high
and i had some great moves but right now i dont feel it really good on like bitfarm or riot (which have no debt it seems)
but you think what you personally sell or keep koz me i can not buy again ok thanks if you answer goodbye
I'm still holding and buying more. I bought BITF and IREN today. You have to do what you think is right. I'm very agressive in my investing approach, because I still have 20 plus years before I retire. I can take a risk.
Hi Sebastian - no mention of Argo in today's analysis ? Is that because they didn't post their figures ? Or was there another reason ?
Yes, they still haven't released their Q4 figures.
And they're mocroscopic ...and a dead man walking .And yes they were by far my biggest investment in btc miners or similar and the worst with silvergate( bust bank) and Core who went bust and is now a phoenix from the ashes ...
Argo lots of debt still plus old machines that won't cut it after the halving 💀☠️💀
Wulf 2$
What do you think about the Paraguay mining ban proposal & BITF?
Ban only pertains to illegal btc miners.. and bitfarms is legal. I don't worry.
@@user-sw3oq4hm7k Not according to the news. They supposedly have electric grid issues.
@@user-sw3oq4hm7kWas that why the CEO resigned?
@@issenvan1050Yes. so sell BITF, I will buy this stocks 😉
@@issenvan1050could be, maybe he was being told in advance by his network as a warning
When halving is over?
What is the theory stockprice from CLSK when bitcoin hits 100.000?
19
Is it possible that Marathon is cooking the books....that they have VASTLY MORE BITCOIN than they are admitting ?????
Where is Argo?? Did you remove the miner?
I was thinking the same?
They haven't still reported their Q4 numbers.
@@SebastianOn Makes sense, cheers Seb
Question is when mining stocks investor will break even from their entry when btc was 30k lol
In do time.
as usual miners down, btc up
The Miners need Bitcoin to go to 210K sell the Bitcoin they mine to show huge profits on their Balance Sheet to have their stock prices go up 5X to 10X..Opportunity Cost waiting for this...If you Buy BITX stock 2 times leverage Spot Bitcoin ETF the stock BITX can go up 6X if Bitcoin does 3X and goes to 210K...I am still holding my Bitfarms shares and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF shares to hedge the Bitcoin Mining Stocks
The miners are pump and dumps. BITX and BITU up 14% today alone. BITX up 6x from September low. You'll do a 5-10x into cycle top with BITX and BITU, 25-50x from September low to cycle top, meanwhile HUT dropped 50% from December and dropped 60% from July as BTC doubled. HUT 23 to 9 as BTC went from 30k to 70k! When BTC tops you can also play the inverse 2x ETFs into the bear market low. Miners will no longer perform. Smart money is going into BTC and ETFs not failing miners. Long run miners dilute and go to 0. It's a business with many risks that relies on constant new capital. Miners will be around after dilution, private placements, and mergers, but the same shareholders will not. Where is smart money going? ETFs.
Bitcoin Cash chart is looking similar to the Bitcoin chart from 2014 to 2016. IF BCH goes on seeing gains we could be about to see something nobody is talking about, BCH to $16k a coin and the miners having to decide where to point their hash...
Coindance has BCH as more profitable to mine even though it halved last week so any pump in the BCH price will attract miners especially IF BTC doesn't pump as expected.
BCH sp could drop away but it feels like it wants to go higher which would be fascinating for the miners
The process of Bitcoin mining is truly fascinating, as miners use powerful computers to solve complex mathematical equations and secure the network. It's amazing to see how technology is revolutionizing the world of finance!
It is really problem for bitcoin miners and crypto traders
Ones that have older machines, yes.