Відео

So his answer to all imperfections of those strategies is to "Call me"?

What is most suspect is the recommendation of 2/3 international stocks. That is a recipe for disaster. International stocks usually underperform the US market.

Thanks for the analysis. I think the paper is basically useless. Why didn’t they include more asset classes like gold, commodities, international bonds . I don’t trust Monte Carlo at all, historical data or otherwise.

I followed Dave Ramsey advice and my portfolio has averaged 42% from the last 3 years. Better than the sandp average so I’m just gonna stick to his advice.

2/3 international? 😂

Max out the go go years. Break even at 78 or later? 78 is the slow go years. Kicking the bucket and letting the government keep the crumbs from the table we all built doesn't seem fun.

Thanks for the great video. I also enjoy reading all the comments here. What I’m getting from this discussion is: people who don’t have a lot of retirement savings and will be relying primarily on SS to fund their retirement should wait til 70. For them, each year they delay collecting pays off as a significant increase in standard of living for the rest of their lives. Delaying is the conservative/safer option. Other people who have considerable savings, such that SS will be a fraction of their retirement money, and will be retiring before age 62…the purple and blue chart in this video gives them help deciding when to start collecting. For those people, collecting at 62 might be the conservative/safer option because they probably have a diversified/balanced portfolio, and nobody knows how long they’ll live. For them, delaying won’t break even until they’re quite old. Lots of other people will fall in between those two extreme groups. For me, I want to be confident I’ll be comfortable and cared for til I die, with a basic level of money in my extreme old age. But once that’s pretty well in place, then I’ll greatly weight the importance of my EARLY years of retirement.

With a Roth IRA, the money you contribute has already been taxed, allowing you to withdraw your contributions tax-free and penalty-free at any time for any reason. Additionally, any investment earnings can also be withdrawn tax-free and penalty-free under certain conditions. I'm still trying to decide how much to contribute, as I'm at a crossroads about whether to liquidate my $338K stock portfolio.

What were the results of the 10-year projections made 10 years ago? Did you analyze the rolling 10-year projections to see how accurate the projections were from Vanguard and others?

This tells me 2025 will most likely be flat to down. Wall Street “forecasters” rarely get it right. Thank you for posting these videos. I enjoy the content

That’s burn 😂

Old Fitz 😅

Not a great presentation because you don’t define the IRR or show examples. I’m a numbers nerd. I did multiple spreadsheets when I turned 67, and could see that invested early dollars clearly outcompeted waiting until 70 as long as I could achieve 4%. I ended up taking SS at age 68 and 7 months. This was only 8% less than my maximum benefit at 70 ( the 8% compresses as you get closer to 70, and isn’t 2/3 % per month as before). In simple dollars, my break even age is 84. In invested dollars it is 105!

way up from 2 years ago...was 2.7%

2.0% is the 100% (not 90%) success rate from Morningstar. This is half of the 4% rate that has always worked historically for a balanced portfolio and lower than a 100% stock portfolio bought right before the Great Depression.

Great info, thanks!

How can the 30-year SWR rate be 3.7% when you can build a 30-year TIPS ladder that has a 4.6% SWR?

A good analysis of the current environment. I would add, though, that I think it's "easier" to take a safe withdrawal rate when valuations are so high, because that safe rate results in so much more money than a couple of years ago. I realize it depends on asset allocation, but planning and running the numbers on, say, 4% a few years ago might have resulted in less money than withdrawing at 3% does today. Lower withdrawal rate, but more money being withdrawn. So imo, it's not necessarily a bitter pill to swallow.

Inflation, thanks Biden.

Why on earth would you want a high ending balance? While you can't pricesely pin your asset values to your death.. you need to get as close as possible. If you are projecting that your portfolio at death will be worth 30-40-50% of your original portfolio value at the time of your retirement you have made a serious, serious tactical error in your spending. Ideally, you want only enough assets left to put your ashes into the ground... Anyone leaving millions to their kids is foolish... the fruits of your forced austerity will pay for your kids fancy cars, vacations and houses... let them earn their own nest egg... Fixed income is dead.... equities are where its at for growth. Just have three years worth of income in near cash assets... draw down on this portion of your portfolio if the stock market has had a bad year, or two or three... do not draw down on your equity portfolio in down years. Once the market has recovered - replenish your near cash asset balance - for the next three year period.

US Economy is designed for the Oligarchs to do well, not for the rest of us to retire.

A big part of the reason why international has underperformed is the currency exchange. That and the fact that the big tech companies that are driving the market are US. I wouldn't go over 20% international either. You can improve the valuation of your portfolio by shifting away from the overvalued names into more value assets as well.

thanks for the video. one strategy I rarely hear talked about wrt safe withdrawal rates is lowering your investment fees. What about moving from an expensive bank mutual fund to a lower cost Vanguard, for example, solution? could you not add potentially 1% or so to your SWR by keeping more of your money in your account rather then paying it to the bank? is the logic sound here? or am i missing something?

If you spend down your savings and retirement monies to delay SS then die the money that was spent is no longer available to heirs and SS dies with you.

Scott.... I'm cutting your vid OFF at the 39 second mark because I am gunna spare my ears the BS argument you will obviously spew forward. I am not sorry for my tone.... it's a 1st Amendment thing. And I am open-minded to being WRONG..... BUT!!!...for me to be WRONG you must BUST my simple argument which is this ==> taking SS at 62 is the ONLY smart strategy if you are a SINGLE MAN THAT WILL DIE AT AGE 80. GO AHEAD SCOTT.... BREAK THAT ARGUMENT..... ya can't.... and you know it.... so park your pseudo-intellectual arguments and try walking the path the path of simple transparent honesty. The simple honest truth==> SS is a government scam and the more you defer the more the scam escalates.... hence, the only victory is in taking it early at 62.......done n DONE.

When they cut 30% of your SS in 2033 or sooner, where will waiting leave you?

4% is the magic number on my spreadsheet. I took it at 68 and 7 months. If I earn 4% or greater, then robbing from my investments makes no practical sense

What are the odds that Dave is worth millions of dollars?

Yes, please use tweets as a valid source of information to justify outrageous claims. Please, if you want to know more about mutual funds and how they ACTUALLY work, use at least three different, verifiable sources of information and speak with a registered representative who works WITH MUTUAL FUNDS. Investment advisors are great, but have a different understanding of other types of investments (they can easily be spotted labeling themselves as “wealth managers”). If you’re going to take advice from someone on a subject, let it be from an expert on that subject, NOT an expert on a SIMILAR subject.

9-10% is not that easy especially at these higher PEs stock market.

At 1:18 you accidentally said "you receive Amazon's match..." I think you meant Microsoft's match...

Just got my offer letter and looking to maximize this opportunity thanks so much for letting these out. Super excited to explore the HSA option.

My father is 86. My mother 77. My siblings are around my age. I'm 52. Younger is almost 50 and older is 55. None of us have a history of illness in the family. Nothing is guaranteed, but plan accordingly. Also, AUM management costs erode one's portfolio. Many advisors will caution the public not to take distributions and instead claim SS ASAP. Just sayin.

Except Social Security is not an “investment” It’s an insurance. The vast majority of people who draw Social Security need it to past bills. They are not investing it anywhere. The “opportunity cost” for a lot of people who take it early will effectively be reducing their overall income for life. Their opportunity cost is loss of income from their job when they quit to retire at 62, then the SS benefit they are leaving on the table monthly because they chose a reduced check. Now if a person is in bad health and knows there is a high probability they won’t live very long, or they are independently wealthy to begin with and are living on the interest of their investments, sure. Take social security early. If you’re sick, spend it. If you’re wealthy, invest it and take advantage of that opportunity to grow that money. For the rest of us who have bills to pay, it is likely best to keep the job a few more years and take a larger social security payment later. If you live into your 80s or 90s and eggs cost $10 per dozen, you may be happy you did.

Actually, I’m more concerned with having enough monthly income to cover my expenses, adjusted for inflation, for the rest of my life. Not so much with a break even point. For me, it’s not about looking at Social Security as an “investment to maximize.” For this reason, I don’t plan to take social security at 62. I will wait until I will receive a larger monthly payout unless, between now and then, I get diagnosed with something that will shorten my life. If that happens, of course I will take it at 62. Otherwise, longevity runs in my family and I will delay taking SS for a while.

People have paid into Social Security Trust fund for a lifetime !! We the people want our monthly payment during the Golden Years if not we want our hard earned money back !!! Government officials should keep their hand out of the Social Security trust fund instead they should WORK TOGETHER TO make it solvent for future generations.

sometimes i need an in person bank so use keybank with capital one works for me

Thanks for your outstanding content in 2024 Sophos Wealth Management. I can't wait to see what's in store for 2025!

Not a very good analysis. You get _guaranteed_ 8%/yr growth on your SS benefit and its is _tax free_. That is much better than you can expect when investing your own money, especially when you are old and should be investing conservatively. Moreover, if you take the SS benefit early, you will likely have to pay taxes on it -- which is a big hit. I'd say the best advice is this: if you need the SS benefit to have a decent standard of living OR you think you will probably die young, better to take it early. If you don't need it to support your living expenses AND you think you will live long, better to let the benefit grow for a few years. The decision depends on how long you expect to live. Lot of uncertainty there, so it is a tough decision.

do you have to be a bad person to give bad advice?

one of them has to be....stupidity...

how long would you want to live if you were broke from bad advice or bad choices....?

I think he's getting that return, but I think theres another layer beyond simply investing. There's strategies you can do with mutual fund shares to increase returns.

Makes sense for the surviving spouse to move out of state. Say to CA where there is no estate tax

Great content. My plan is to withdraw 4% a year, from age 59, without adjusting for inflation. If inflation is high in the early years of retirement I'll simply withdraw social security at that point in order to keep a sensible 4% withdrawal rate from my portfolio.

Waiting 30 days for funds to settle ain't it chief. I think CMA is good, but fidelity is shitting the bed at the moment. I went with ETrade instead. I usually have a buffer of 5k so the Max Rate checking works for me.

Thanks for your helpful video!

I like his points on how to diversify the funds, but the 4% withdrawl still is the safest even against his beliefs. He's got the right idea on getting out of Debt and using your income for wealth development. But I'd still prefer to listen to the other 10,000+ millionaires as well. The reality is you'll develop wealth. Developing a 12% return every year is the unbelievable part.

The 70/20/10 works so well. 70% is needs and wants. 20% is savings and investments. 10% is charitable donation to church

You're doing a fantastic job! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How can I transfer them to Binance?