Відео

Fascinating. Is this syntethic media? How did you made it?

Excellent. I will use these differing views for military operational design projects.

Thank you for this valuable video. I was looking for the meaning of 'Wind tunneling method' and how I can adopt this into real strategy from scenarios. However, from your video, I think it's not to create a new strategy, but more of assessing existing strategies based on scenarios. Unless I have existing strategies, I can't use wind tunneling method. So is there any way wind tunneling method can be used to create a new strategy?

Interesting stuffs but I suggest some more concrete contents about what we already know about future. And I say future, because for me the future is like a random variable. For example: The USA will continue to burn coal until 2035. China will continue to burn coal until 2050. India will continue to burn coal until 2060. Assuming these dates are respected, because if they continue to burn coal even beyond these dates... The ITER nuclear fusion power plant will not be operational (hopefully functional) until after 2055. UE green foolish ideas: destroying the European mechanical industry of internal combustion engines will not save planet Earth: because the rest of the world will not give up internal combustion engines. UE green foolish ideas: Destroying 30% of the dams in Italy, as part of a trend of desertification in the Mediterranean area, will not save human people on planet Earth from climate change damages UE green foolish ideas: Putting an incendiary coat of polystyrene and tar on houses, in a context of desertification in the Mediterranean area, will not save human people on planet Earth from climate change damages UE green foolish ideas: Destroying all primary sector (cattle breeding and agriculture) in Europe, to insert Soros bioreactors for synthetic meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, it will be useless: because the Second World and the Third World will not stop on using agriculture and cattle breeding, for their food production necessity. Assuming that the "know how" of the ITER project will be shared without too many legal obstacles, it will take another +35 years before other fusion power plants (ITER clones) will spread out, all around the world. Let's do some basic math: 2055+35=2090 on assuming there are no further construction delays for ITER clones power plant, all around the world. IMHO this is a very unlikely hypothesis, on assuming no construction delays in the future: just think of all future extreme weather events: those stuffs will multiply both in number and intensity. Probably the extreme weather events will have directly/indirectly impact on the construction works of all fusion power plants all around the world. It is quite reasonable to think it will be no nuclear fusion power plants on Earth, as a new and easy energy source, before the beginning of the 22nd century. So it is logical IMHO to assume that only from Jan/1st/2100 the ITER nuclear fusion power plants will be spread out all over the world. However for the early 22nd century it is highly probable that "all the geopolitical, climatic and ecosystem games" but also the problem of overpopulation on planet Earth, all those issues will have been resolved 50 years earlier (probably around 2050) with a probable WWIII in Siberia and some unavoidable Punic Wars in the Mediterranean area and a regional war around Australia. As you can see, this valuation is not fully of details: it is ceteris paribus the unknown trends of the melting of methane hydrates in Siberia with positive feedback mechanisms. Have a nice day!

Great stuff, Alex.

Emotions are an interesting one. I think to have a foresight process and practice to be trapped by particular emotions is the bias. The critical and reflective use of emotions to open up alternative ways of knowing is to my mind really helpful. But to be trapped by a single emotion, is not. In keeping with your later usage.

Very insightful.

But, how will we spread propaganda to force people to think as we feel they should if we admit that opposing futures are not only plausible but likely? The public might learn critical thinking, and then society might actually have to deal with unmanufactured diversity.

So this is an AI generated deepfake? 🤔 Interesting. The voice seems off, and for some of reason the upper teeth are never shown.

Alex, I think the media are simply treating our futures much the same way as society as a whole does. The problem with that is that current attempts to talk about our futures tend to reinforce the notion that there is "THE future." I'm not sure exactly how to make people more conscious of how we speak of our futures, but I suspect it involves challenging the social constructions we've built around time

Christ, this just makes metamodernism look like some cyberpunk self-help service. Edit: LMAO they actually characterize this as post-ideological AND neo-romantic AND paradox-resolving 😂 my bullshit detector is going wild

Alex, u got any author I HAVE to read if I wanna learn more on how to implement corporate foresight in an organisation?

can i request copy of the article? thank you so much

Fantastic lecture. well done Alex👍

What a goldmine of a channel. Thank you!

Great short clip, Alex! Thanks again for having me on the channel. You're almost at 3k!

Nope Netflix pushed lgbt woke content and families unsubscribed.

Super helpful, thank you!

This is the first step, identifying the problem. Thank you for this.

Alex, I believe that resisting main stream features of the capitalist labour market is important, a courageous minority position, not an underdog role at all.

Well said. There is nothing more to add. It's bad enough. Acknowledging it first, seems already a challenge by itself. But someone had to start doing it. You did! 👏👏👏

Riel Miller destroyed Alex not once but like 5x with clarity!

Sarah makes a great point about the importance of KPIs, which could be used in the short term to evaluate success and not necessarily only for longitudinal studies.

Great axplanation! Thanks!!

感谢分享🫶

Thanks😊

Thanks for having me on the channel, Alex!

Your videos are very clear and helpful, thanks 😊

Enjoyed it. Just a quick point, the audio visual waves are waaaay distracting and shift our focus unnecessarily

He likes Italian boyz 😂

More cultural marxist propaganda.

Astonishing job Alex, thank you for sharing.

This was awesome, great job Alex! I need to work on my presentation skills. Very nice video.

Thanks for this brilliant input. I agree at 99% of your statements, with the exception of the economic problem: at least in Germany many MNUs and MSEs are at latest now starting to build capacities in the field of foresight, often called trend management or trendscouting. I just checked recently the open jobs at Stepstone for a short research I did, and I was kind of surprised to see the magnitude and broadth of employers currently looking for employees in these fields. So maybe finally (too soon to be clear) there's a ground for professional futurists to go into (hopefully) well-paid jobs in many industries (including the evangelic church, by the way). I guess this makes a good field for some empirical research sooner or later to check if that changes something about the national economic situation in terms of resilience and/or preparedness to shocks but also opportunities?

Thanks a lot for this practical overview - I had literally asked myself the questions you're mentioning in the intro just a month ago and then stumbled upon this vid via WFSF mailing list. Thanks a lot, keep going and stay critical (I very much value your respectful clashes with charlatan and other sorts of futurists)!

You obviously have not much knowledge and experience of spirituality and inner paths. Sure, there can be transient " higher" states, but what its actually about is stages. And here I would recommend either Buddhist studies e.g. or at least theoretically lets say , Ken Wilbers 4 transpersonal stages up to non-dual. Sure enough its also a real journey to have those stabilized ( and of course never 100% , but your main stage) but its definitely not about feeling high all the time, but be awareness itself and this includes all kinds of states and " form " in their many many expressions, also not pleasant ones. Actually that ´s what spirituality and those paths are about. I find your criticism of the luminaries ( in Hanzis work) quite refreshing, but sometimes a deeper dive can bring some deeper understanding.

May I suggest to you a little good idea?! ;-) Why don't you build an applied research on using your futyure skills, about one economy sector of your country in the next 30 or 50 years in the future?! or Why don't you build an applied research on using your future tools, about your contry in the next 30 or 50 years in the future?! or instead why don't you create an applied research on using your future skills, about all the countries in Asia continent in the next 30 or 50 years?! or even why don't you create an applied research on using your future tools, about the World in the next 30 or 50 years in the future?! You could offer one of those products for FREE in Creative Commons into a UA-cam playlist: the others packages instead you could put them for sale, for your customers only! Applied research for talking about the future, it could be very useful for many people, even if for free, and in UA-cam! IMHO talking about the future, with and applied research, it trasforms the future in real and concrete stuffs, so it could be very useful for everybody, even for youtube people! That's my 2 cent opinion.

Metamodernism doesn't solve contemporary problems. Neo fascism, collective psychosis and environmental destruction is worse than ever, accelerating even faster than predicted. These last weeks over 4000 children are killed in Gaza. This year will be the hottest in 125 000 years according to scientific data. This is not metamodernism. This is the stone age.

Thank you Alex, very helpful indeed.

Thank you for sharing. Very helpful that you provide both pitfalls and way to avoid them. 🎉 Just to add, Another way foresight can be harmful is “too much of a good thing”. Organization with Hyperactive of foresight activity actually perform worst according to this study: Rohrbeck and Kum - 2018 - Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance

Promo SM

Please send me a copy

The beginning of a new paradigm always seems powerful but feels like the uncanny valley at first.

Hi Alex, this is a very nice and informative video. I have taken note of the 5 articles that you mentioned. I find the first benefit to be interesting. If i am not wrong, groups that do corporate foresight/scenario planning are more likely to rely on intuitive decision-making rather than rational decision-making and that by itself is a better process? 😮

Future is not a matter to guess how many beans are into a glass jar, because Physics says the future could be predicted or future is unpredictable: it is matter of what kind of object of study is all about. It depends by Poincaré time or in another words the Lyapunov time ua-cam.com/users/liveTJWvYkItuR0?feature=share So what is th future?! Future is not a guess on how many beams are into a glass jar Future is made by what we already know about it Future is mady by what we know about it, into on going situation so we will know one part of the future with an estimate on going process Future is made by things not knowable, but we will know everything about it, when future will be past Future is mady by all we don't know too about it As you know, scenario planning is a military know how, it was successfully applied by Pierre WacK on Shell then this method spread out in much firms. The point is that Scenario planning runs on Delphi panel: Delphi panel is not a meeting of commons and normal people, as foresight does. As you know scenarios are usually gagedd to show the unsafest or safest situations with the combinations of key variables, wildcards destroy key variables, so the wildcards have to be not present or to have very low probability events into a right planning. Otherwise planning is wrong, because planner is wrong on thinking wildcards as wildcards, because very probable wildcard are key variables not wildcards. So, on going story designs the emerging scenario. From the emerging scenarios comes out early warning signals, this stuffs show what is the history path, and what is going on day by day. Planning is good when expected events comes out from emerging scenario. Planning is not good when from emerging scenario comes out wildcards, so planning is destroyed and it is necessary to re-planning with new key variables as soon as possible. Planning is a process, OODA loop helps scenario planning. Ok, lets imagine a scenario planning is good: How much the emerging scenario may look like to the 4 scenarios planned?! .If emerging scenario is very likely to ONE scenario planned, the planner have predicted future: it is hard but it may happens .If emerging scenario looks like a sort of mix of TWO scenarios planned, because emerging scenario contains stuffs in between of a couple of scenario planned, then planner have predicted all risks of the future. .If emerging scenario looks like a sort of huge soup of the 4 scenarios planned, because emerging scenario contains small parts of the all FOUR scenarios planned, and the emerging scenario is quite in between of all 4 scenario planned, then planner have predicted all risks of the future. .If emerging scenario is only partially likely to what is planned, because vast parts of emerging scenario is not foreseen in any of the 4 scenarios planned, then the planner highlighted only small part of the risks of the future. In this case the planner catched only few elements of the future and planning is not good. Planning is not writter in the granite rock, why planner did not fix the planning, when early warning signals come out from the on going emerging scenario?! .If emerging scenario is not likely to nothing, because emerging scenario not contains any parts of the 4 scenarios planned, then the planner was totally wrong, because he did not catch anything about the future!. Same question: why planner did not replan totally a new planning, when early warning signals (in the form of wildcards) come out from the on going emerging scenario?!

Haha this one is hilarious

Thanks buddy your videos rock!