Scott Reilly
Scott Reilly
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The market update desk September 12th - Wholesale inflation report and Corelogic equity report
The Market update Desk September 12th
- yesterday's 10 year bond auction went very well and should carry over to todays 30 year auction.
- the Yen carry trade effect may not yet be over
- PPI headline +.2% and year over year falls to 1.7%. Core up .3% but negative revision to July number. year over year up to 2.4%
- Jobless claims rise slightly
- Core logic reports homeowners WITH mortgages had their equity INCREASE in 2023 by $1.3T! Average homeowner with a mortgage has $315,000 in equity! Homeownership CREATES wealth!
- 10 year bond at a very important resistance level
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The Market Update Desk September 11th - CPI breakdown and Home appreciation forecasts10:14The Market Update Desk September 11th - CPI breakdown and Home appreciation forecasts
The Market Update Desk September 11th - CPI breakdown and Home appreciation forecasts
Переглядів 72 години тому
The Market Update Desk September 11th - "Let's Roll" Todd Beamer"... - CPI report shows a healthy decline in headline CPI from 2.9% to 2.5% year over year. Core comes in hotter than expected at .3%. The 3 month annualized rate of core is now at 2.02%, right at FED goals. - Shelter again gives us headwinds, up to .5% and now 5.2% year over year. Motor Vehicle Insurance is still up, but has start...
The Market Update Desk September 6th - BLS SWINGS and misses!6:19The Market Update Desk September 6th - BLS SWINGS and misses!
The Market Update Desk September 6th - BLS SWINGS and misses!
Переглядів 1014 годин тому
The Market Update Desk September 6th - BLS JOBS....swings, and misses! BLS kept the job trend showing much weaker job growth than expected. 20,000 jobs miss for the month AND -85k downward revision to last 2 months. 20% of the jobs THIS YEAR were overstated. U3 unemployment declined by .1% BUT all in U6 increased .1 to 7.9%. 438k full time jobs LOST... part time jobs 527k. This shows deeper wea...
The Market Update Desk September 5th - BIG missed on ADP and other jobs reports4:34The Market Update Desk September 5th - BIG missed on ADP and other jobs reports
The Market Update Desk September 5th - BIG missed on ADP and other jobs reports
Переглядів 716 годин тому
The Market Update Desk September 5th - ADP payroll comes in WAY UNDER expectations! under 100k new jobs - Challenger job cuts 50k MORE than expected - Initial jobless claims slightly under expectations - 10 year bond breaks under 3.80, closing in on 3.7s tomorrow BLS .....what will we see??? Act now on the low rates that we have now. #themarketupdatedesk #experience #knowledge @themarketupdatedesk
The Market Update Desk September 4th - JOLTS report JOLTS3:19The Market Update Desk September 4th - JOLTS report JOLTS
The Market Update Desk September 4th - JOLTS report JOLTS
Переглядів 819 годин тому
The Market Update Desk September 4th - JOLTS report shows a significant decrease in job openings AND 330k downward revision to last months report. The quit rate stayed flat at 2.1% - 10 year bond broke beneath 3.80% level of resistance. MBS's move upward, helping mortgage rates #themarketupdatedesk #knowledge #experience @themarketupdatedesk
The market update desk Sept 3rd Jobs week starts!5:48The market update desk Sept 3rd Jobs week starts!
The market update desk Sept 3rd Jobs week starts!
Переглядів 421 годину тому
The Market Update Desk Sep 3rd - Jobs week kicks off! - We got some clues for the JOLTS report (Wednesday) from a report from Lighcast data. This showed slowdown in job openings. - We get ADP on Thursday and BLS on Friday. ADP expectations are 145k jobs added and BLS is 165k jobs. If it comes in under, we have some room to get better on mortgage rates. 10 year bond is back to the low to mid 3.8...
The market Update Desk August 30th - PCE report, UofM cons sentiment and past FED President comments6:51The market Update Desk August 30th - PCE report, UofM cons sentiment and past FED President comments
The market Update Desk August 30th - PCE report, UofM cons sentiment and past FED President comments
Переглядів 9День тому
The Market Update Desk August 30th - PCE inflation report breakdown. Headline and Core come in at expected. Year over year core declines by .2%. Consumer spending metric in report shows consumers continue to spend. - U of M end of month final report on consumer sentiment revised slightly higher. Future expectations of inflation grow by .2% - Past St Louis FED president James Bullard gives a gre...
The Market Update Desk August 27th - FED primary Dove helps us5:20The Market Update Desk August 27th - FED primary Dove helps us
The Market Update Desk August 27th - FED primary Dove helps us
Переглядів 514 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 27th - The FED favorite Dove Austin Goolsbee helps talk up rate cuts. He says "it doesn't matter if it's a 1/4 or a 1/2... we just need to start. - Home Appreciation upward - Rent concessions now trend higher. The increase in inventory is pressuring landlords. MBS's fight above resistance level of 100.79. We also have a rising trend line. #themarketupdatedesk #know...
The Market Update Desk August 26th - Durable Goods Orders look good, BUT lets go deep in the data4:21The Market Update Desk August 26th - Durable Goods Orders look good, BUT lets go deep in the data
The Market Update Desk August 26th - Durable Goods Orders look good, BUT lets go deep in the data
Переглядів 814 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 26th - Durable good orders come in hot, BUT when you look deeper its actually a very weak report. - 10 year bonds keep fighting downward resistance of 3.80 - this week ramps up the end of the week with important inflation data and the stock market focuses in on NVIDIA earnings report #themarketupdatedesk #experience #knowledge @themarketupdatedesk
The Market Update Desk August 23rd The Time Has ComeWhere will the FED lead us to??7:45The Market Update Desk August 23rd The Time Has ComeWhere will the FED lead us to??
The Market Update Desk August 23rd The Time Has ComeWhere will the FED lead us to??
Переглядів 1114 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 23rd - FED Chair Powell MUCH anticipated speech from Jackson Hole confirmed, The Time Has Come! He indicated upside risk to inflation is now secondary to upside risk in employment. FED futures now indicating a full 1 point drop by end of year! what will the pace be to get to 1 point is the big question. - New homes sales BLOW AWAY the expected number. up 20% in the...
The Market Update Desk August 21st - JOBS COME IN -818k lower than reported8:18The Market Update Desk August 21st - JOBS COME IN -818k lower than reported
The Market Update Desk August 21st - JOBS COME IN -818k lower than reported
Переглядів 1421 день тому
The Market Update Desk August 21st - BLS annual benchmark revision on jobs for preceding 12 months shows a SHOCKING negative revision of -818,000 JOBS!! This means 30% of the data was WRONG! It was the largest revision since 2009! This bad data cost home buyers a lot of money with higher rates than they should have been subject to! The run up in bonds was from "supposed" strong job creation. - ...
The market update desk August 19th - Its all about Jackson Hole this week6:12The market update desk August 19th - Its all about Jackson Hole this week
The market update desk August 19th - Its all about Jackson Hole this week
Переглядів 1121 день тому
The Market Update Desk August 19th - Preparing for a very important week. Annual BLS benchmark revisions report (2023). This will show jobs were OVERSTATED by 600,000- 1MM jobs last year (per Goldman Sachs). QCEW for Q1 looks also to show jobs were massively over stated. - Thursday starts the annual KC FED symposium in Jackson Hole. Breakdown of Aug 23' numbers vs Aug 24' numbers on inflation. ...
The Market Update Desk August 16th - Builders slow important week next week6:09The Market Update Desk August 16th - Builders slow important week next week
The Market Update Desk August 16th - Builders slow important week next week
Переглядів 621 день тому
The Market Update Desk August 16th - Builder headwinds show up in Starts and permits. Restricted monetary policy, onerous govt mandates and local permitting costs/design add not only to the high cost of housing but also to lack of inventory. - The week has had major ups and downs in both equities and bonds...in the end it looks like we will end up fairly even on the week. Next Wednesday will be...
The Market Update Desk August 15th - Retail sales come in Hot5:37The Market Update Desk August 15th - Retail sales come in Hot
The Market Update Desk August 15th - Retail sales come in Hot
Переглядів 928 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 15th - Home builders index shows a mixed bag. BUT with rates dropping this should change in next months report - Stocks are on a torrid pace today! - Jobless claims come in cooler than expected - Retails sales HOT numbers! 10 year bond and mortgage backed securities pull back today from the retail sales numbers #themarketupdatedesk #experience @themarketupdatedesk
The Market Update Desk August 14th - CPI shows continued decline look at the non rounded numbers0:48The Market Update Desk August 14th - CPI shows continued decline look at the non rounded numbers
The Market Update Desk August 14th - CPI shows continued decline look at the non rounded numbers
Переглядів 1228 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 14th - CPI shows continued decline look at the non rounded numbers
The Market Update Desk August 13th - PPI comes is cool6:42The Market Update Desk August 13th - PPI comes is cool
The Market Update Desk August 13th - PPI comes is cool
Переглядів 628 днів тому
The Market Update Desk August 13th - PPI comes is cool
The Market Update Desk August 12th - FED Gov Bowman Hawks it up and misrepresents data6:08The Market Update Desk August 12th - FED Gov Bowman Hawks it up and misrepresents data
The Market Update Desk August 12th - FED Gov Bowman Hawks it up and misrepresents data
Переглядів 9Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk August 12th - FED Gov Bowman Hawks it up and misrepresents data
The market update desk august 9th multiple FED members give comments and stock move to the positive5:19The market update desk august 9th multiple FED members give comments and stock move to the positive
The market update desk august 9th multiple FED members give comments and stock move to the positive
Переглядів 8Місяць тому
The market update desk august 9th multiple FED members give comments and stock move to the positive
The Market Update Desk August 8th - Stocks come back bonds retreat unemployment stays "sticky"5:26The Market Update Desk August 8th - Stocks come back bonds retreat unemployment stays "sticky"
The Market Update Desk August 8th - Stocks come back bonds retreat unemployment stays "sticky"
Переглядів 11Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk August 8th - Stocks come back bonds retreat unemployment stays "sticky"
The market Update Desk August 7th FED cut could enhance carry trade volatility. inventory up6:24The market Update Desk August 7th FED cut could enhance carry trade volatility. inventory up
The market Update Desk August 7th FED cut could enhance carry trade volatility. inventory up
Переглядів 386Місяць тому
The market Update Desk August 7th FED cut could enhance carry trade volatility. inventory up
The Market Update Desk August 6th - Currency Carry Trades add volatility to the market0:26The Market Update Desk August 6th - Currency Carry Trades add volatility to the market
The Market Update Desk August 6th - Currency Carry Trades add volatility to the market
Переглядів 12Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk August 6th - Currency Carry Trades add volatility to the market
The Market Update Desk Aug 5th Rates continue to decline3:47The Market Update Desk Aug 5th Rates continue to decline
The Market Update Desk Aug 5th Rates continue to decline
Переглядів 68Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk Aug 5th Rates continue to decline
The Market Update Desk August 2nd HUGE jobs miss plus neg revision BIG mortgage rate drops!9:12The Market Update Desk August 2nd HUGE jobs miss plus neg revision BIG mortgage rate drops!
The Market Update Desk August 2nd HUGE jobs miss plus neg revision BIG mortgage rate drops!
Переглядів 20Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk August 2nd HUGE jobs miss plus neg revision BIG mortgage rate drops!
The Market Update Desk August 1st - FED notes....lower rates are here! more unemployment8:43The Market Update Desk August 1st - FED notes....lower rates are here! more unemployment
The Market Update Desk August 1st - FED notes....lower rates are here! more unemployment
Переглядів 67Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk August 1st - FED notes....lower rates are here! more unemployment
The Market Update Desk July 31st - ADP miss FED decision Treasury Refunding6:15The Market Update Desk July 31st - ADP miss FED decision Treasury Refunding
The Market Update Desk July 31st - ADP miss FED decision Treasury Refunding
Переглядів 36Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 31st - ADP miss FED decision Treasury Refunding
The Market Update Desk July 29th - CRITICAL week ahead!4:08The Market Update Desk July 29th - CRITICAL week ahead!
The Market Update Desk July 29th - CRITICAL week ahead!
Переглядів 64Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 29th - CRITICAL week ahead!
The Market Update Desk July 26th _ PCE report shows good numbers for inflation6:13The Market Update Desk July 26th _ PCE report shows good numbers for inflation
The Market Update Desk July 26th _ PCE report shows good numbers for inflation
Переглядів 7Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 26th _ PCE report shows good numbers for inflation
The Market Update Desk July 25th - 296,000 few jobs in Q4 of 2023!5:41The Market Update Desk July 25th - 296,000 few jobs in Q4 of 2023!
The Market Update Desk July 25th - 296,000 few jobs in Q4 of 2023!
Переглядів 9Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 25th - 296,000 few jobs in Q4 of 2023!
The Market Update Desk July 19th - Global tech outage! Jobless claims grow to more states4:43The Market Update Desk July 19th - Global tech outage! Jobless claims grow to more states
The Market Update Desk July 19th - Global tech outage! Jobless claims grow to more states
Переглядів 16Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 19th - Global tech outage! Jobless claims grow to more states
The Market Update Desk July 18th - unemployment claims continue to increase3:52The Market Update Desk July 18th - unemployment claims continue to increase
The Market Update Desk July 18th - unemployment claims continue to increase
Переглядів 8Місяць тому
The Market Update Desk July 18th - unemployment claims continue to increase