Відео

@@SphereofTime When I win, I feel I could have bet more. After I lose, i feel that I should have bet less 😂

Still here. I was looking at propoganda/media/news and UA-cam was/is not a safe space? So rumble seems to be better that way, though banned in France? Some crazy law in Ireland where government can go to your house and insist you give passwords to find false news, though defined by who? I am/was school level on that front being more maths/science though covid suggests science not what supposed to be? Is this tradable? Betting on trump to win since so far ahead in the polls though will a proper election occur? Science/quant needs stats/data to provide insight but what is the relevant data? I've got bitcoin and gold so trading the situation?

As that professor on Tucker Carlson said, science is able questions we cannot answer as opposed to giving answers that we cannot question? This seems to effect people/channels once they cross a certain scale so don't think I would be in the danger zone. As the Duran put it, the inverse iron curtain where you have 90% of the world on one side and the we are the kings living in the past with ageing populations and unimaginable debts as outlined in the book breaking the code of history which mentioned a while back and later by Ray Dallios book, why nations succeed and fail?

What would you consider? Recently I was looking at some teams who nearly always have less than 3 goals which are mispriced by the market. No fancy analysis BUT got multiple excellent wins. This is pretty robust so I like it for smaller teams in non major league who I know noting about BUT where I can use this to give me something. Football has a lot of noise, you can't be that precise? I had looked at this book where they fit different distributions to different teams which made sense. So I'd need to get the goals for each team, which can get and then compare that approach to poisson? I wanted to use bivalent poisson which was more hassle than had time for. There are other ways. Maybe just a neural net?

@@quantchannel9922 hmm, I don't want to share 13 years of research on here. I hope you understand. So yr new idea is to bet on under 3.5 goals? Right, you can't be precise as it says read in the 1996 book I just started reading 'Football Fortunes': "In football results prediction there can be no certainties and it is futile to seek any. There are however, degrees of likelihood, or probabilities." Distributions is something I need to learn more about. One thing I DO know is that the exact same system used on identical teams, but in different leagues produces significantly different results. I believe this could be due to different country's culture (open vs conservative for example). It seems some leagues provide a suitable environment for goals so these are consistent and reliable leagues. I would be very happy to talk more on a different format because it's not often ppl are interested in discussing spreadsheet formulas and football goal stats!

@@ianrjm969 I'm on holidays at the moment but am back in action in a week?

@@quantchannel9922 no worries. Enjoy yourself and let me know how to get in touch. 👍

I am reading some interesting books at the moment and will take stock after. I imagine republicans will get a huge win with the high inflation. I'll see if there are any methods for that like stock market moves being the best for presidential ones? I'll see if can find anything about Brazil as well.

@@tysabri9Excellent! Thank you so much.

Good to hear from you! Not a topic that familiar with but wanted to kind of gather my thoughts in a series of videos which I can then look at and analyze since you automatically notice what looks silly and think of what should perhaps look at. I heard from mcgregor I think, that the same thing happens again and again. So i subscribed to the NY times which lets me access old copies. So I can read what was said in early/mid/late stories for Vietnam and other events. Others have said that the same thing happens all the time but wanted to actually read older newspapers to verify. That is a huge amount of content which would take far too long to read so I think I'll take a sample and see how that goes. It's not perfect BUT most of the reporting is not ideal. I remember hearing how the general mood from polls in Russia was far more enraged with the deaths of the Russian community in Ukraine and so the government has to kind of hold back the outrage which is exactly what that propaganda slide says. You use propaganda to get the people to demand what you wanted to do. Same in China, about Taiwan and I have to assume me in Europe. I am doing this mainly on rumble since that is the place which there is less censorship. The nice thing is that no one watches when you start, when you are still learning and making mistakes. BUT, if you stick at is, it does grow exponentially and suddenly the community is where there is far more wisdom than any expert and the original creator gets to learn from it?

@@quantchannel9922 you can apply a simple word2vec and look at the vector space (3d plot)

I remember getting option prices in excel, with VBA. There has to be a poisson random number generator there, since i used random numbers to price options. So you can simulate 100k games to estimate what is going to happen based on what has. I scaled the goals to what I thought made sense since if a team averages scoring 2 goals a game plays against a side that lets in half as many goals a average then I feel that the team is probably going to score 1 goal and not 2? ua-cam.com/video/yRyUKM8QpKQ/v-deo.html

Hi. Does the other code work? Is the code text corrupt or is it not running?

@@quantchannel9922 Think the code is corrupted, or something else is wrong I just can´t make it to work???

@@quantchannel9922 maybe it´s about "dplyr" file who is missing and taken away from RStudio???

@@mn8231 the football poisson model doesn't use dply, off the top of my head, since it would simulate many games using the averages data that you give in as inputs to then analyse to see what the typical score should be. So we could check how often various results occured from 100,000 simulated games or how often both sides scores or how often 3 or more goals were scored etc I'll create a vid showing what I do tomorrow and we can see if that helps or what to do next?

Been busy trading bitcoin and following what's going on. I'll create some more when I get a window? Learning lots so there is much to discuss. Apologies.

@@quantchannel9922 Hope to hear from you soon. I miss your videos.

Haven't done it. Know about Black Scholes pricing and there is volatility there but arbitrage...maybe if can buy at the same price but buy lower vol/risk and see higher. For which asset class?

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It was profitable. It did better than experts. The same size though was small and from what I've read people have had years which went well and years when it didn't? If use with multiple small bets then should be good though discipline and patience required so no huge bet on what is a sure thing? I like using in smaller markets where can find misprices for under/over 2.5 goals though I haven't for a while since focused on bitcoin?

I'll put one together. Off on holidays for a week but by the end of the month most likely.

Have one! Made it before the z-score one. Should be on my channel vids or something? I'll put them in a playlist later.

ua-cam.com/video/P0R2b5A_WFM/v-deo.html is my Pi cycle vid.

William daily signal is top rated and one of the best you could get when it comes to trading crypto.. bitcoin to the moon 🌙

I was able to grow my portfolio from 4 btc to 6tc, Gerald Edgar told me I could have made more though, my work has just been so demanding... truly crypto has changed it all and i'm loving this race .

This guy is no joke, he is a genius when it comes to technical analysis... Love him .

This is an opportunity for newbies and some old holder to capitalize on, It's quite a shame people can't see this, tradlng is everything right now .

If you have the code for the function. Then I think you have to click source in the part where the code is. Once it has been run that way, R knows what poisson_soccer_model() is and so you can run it in the console? just type in like you did and then press enter, which gets to trigger it.

especially dgb is nice to technically analyse

There's room for many. Bitcoin is store of value due to its limited number. It's technology is proven whole others are more asperational? I'm low leverage bitcoin with a basket of potentials. Could never have imagined the scale of printing. I do have a 10 trillion note from zimbabwe from ebay, though a 100 billion note came out later but will do 😃

Have you been in crypto long? I only got invested last year, though at below 10000 🥳

@@quantchannel9922 So crypto got my interest back 2017, but even earlier, I could get in into bitcoin when it was at 300€, also when ehtereum was an the same price. But I dont regrett this, Im more like a value investor. To mean presures metals have a lot of value, also some crypto projects. But the era of bitcoin/ethereum is about to end. Bitcoin is an old dinosaurs in case of technology, but sure it will go to 100k in my opinion. Ethereum fees are rediculas and it takes months or years to fix. Im also into some shitcoins. But I can really good analyse the projects, because Im a software developer.

@@quantchannel9922 Best way to learn about crypto is telegram groups. But dont forget, never share your mnemonics phrase or your private key. To nobody!!! And never on any site, create bookmarks for web wallet and use only them

1.25x

Fair point. There is so much to talk about that it's overload. So I thought better to get something out rather than wait for perfection (which this for sure was not). I wanted to have this and then in a years time be able to say, I could predict this trade and show why(which will do in the next video). It's more technical analysis than quant though I'll see how machine learning does and maybe use R or python to do blockchain analysis since they have the tools there which could be interesting, though I've no idea how big a project that is and so perhaps?

I've been focused on bitcoin the last year, spending hours every day falling down the rabbit hole as they say in the bitcoin world. It's already by far the best trade I've ever made and the main move is about to start since you always end bull markets in a blow out move where it over shoots. I try and cover the essentials in 3 videos 🥳

What does for two stocks mean? Oddly I got thinking about what impact negative interest rates would have on BS as a result of this question. My focus at the moment is on cryptos and bitcoin which should make some posts about soon since it took me a while to get my head around it and take the leap.There is SO MUCH going on in that space!!!

​@tysabri9 the problem becomes more involved when you have a basket of stocks, cause the option price V is a function of S1, S2, S3, ...Sn, and t

I look at sites like this:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings for elo ratings of countries since I would only know some big countries and that might be based on how they were rather than they are? That's not historic though since those plots on clubelo let's me compare and note that this Liverpool side were objectively better than my great arsenal sides. Perhaps could construct such a plot myself as a project if could build an internationals result database and then compute the elo ratings myself? Someone has probably done this so there should be a site somewhere, though I don't know it.

Apologies. Thanks for pointing that out. I'm working on a kaggle contest with machine learning at the moment but will see if I can plug that gap. I'm also trading bitcoin and learning about blockchain which is bigger than I'd expected and super hot. Breton woods 2 has been called by the IMF as well so the world is changing. I'll see what I can do 🤞

@@quantchannel9922 thanks. looking forward to the next video on this topic.

@@quantchannel9922 Any update on the follow up to this video?