Відео

Is there any chance you could do opeechee platinum 2023 2024 hockey?

Yeah I haven’t been able to do the work and the hobby has become somewhat unaffordable for me. Can’t even join breaks at these prices

Hobby.

I'm thinking of buying into a break, for the NY Rangers.

That’s very unfortunate. I hate manufactured memorabilia swatches.

Great question. I think the sheer number of autos in this product oversaturate the results with less profitable autos. You could certainly add a margin of error to my analysis. But realistically, its just hard to hit big. In the 200 cases, there were 29 breaks with Reds autos, equalling 45 total Reds autos. There were some Elly autos, 8 to be exact, one of which is Red Ink. The rest were 16 Andrew Abbott, 5 Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 8 Johnny Bench, 8 Spencer Steer. That's how it shook out. There is a lot of value in Elly autos, but with the thousands and thousands of other autos available, its hard to hit any one player.

@@sportscardanalysis maybe it’s just valuation of the cards then. I think even eight Elly autos alone might equal out to the total case x 200 value, so that could be my bias. Interesting, thanks for sharing the numbers!

Believe me, I know. Im in southwest Ohio. But PSA 10 1st bowman Elly autos are selling for 1500-2000. Heritage is no where close to Bowman, let alone 1st bowman. You’ll likely see Heritage Elly autos selling between $250 and $400. I’m not sure what “total case x 200” means, but a 1/1 Elly auto could pay for a case. I agree there.

Thank you!

The Average return on investment is calculated by adding all the values together, then dividing by the number of items. The 23 you are referencing is the number of cases there were Avalanche autos in. There were 2 cases with multiple Avalanche autos and 21 with one, totaling 25 av autos. The sum of all auto values for the Avalanche is $12618.52 (USD) 12618.52 divided by 25 = 504.74 So what I am saying here is that 23 cases yielded an average Avalanche return of $504.74 per case with one or more successful Avalanche "hit"

Thank you!

No problem 👍

Ah dang. Terrible oversight on my part. Crap. I reran the analysis and some things wound up a little different. Here are the updated ROI top 10. Thanks for pointing this out. Return on Investment (ROI) for 200 Breaks by Team (TOP 10) TEAM NAME | AVG ROI PER CASE FOR 200 CASES | CAD AVG ROI PER CASE FOR 200 CASES | FULL PRODUCT STRENGTH Chicago Blackhawks | 156.58 | 211.38 | 2 Boston Bruins | 137.72 | 185.92 | 7 Edmonton Oilers | 112.76 | 152.23 | 8 Buffalo Sabres | 102.12 | 137.86 | 1 Pittsburgh Penguins | 79.35 | 107.12 | 14 Colorado Avalanche | 71.94 | 97.12 | 15 Toronto Maple Leafs | 51.92 | 70.09 | 11 Seattle Kraken | 50.23 | 67.81 | 18 New Jersey Devils | 49.7 | 67.1 | 17 Detroit Red Wings | 41.31 | 55.77 | 5 Average by Only Cases Containing Hits (out of 200 simulated breaks) (TOP 10) TEAM NAME | HIT TYPE | AVG ROI WHEN HIT | CAD AVG ROI WHEN HIT | NUMBER OF CASES WITH HITS Colorado Avalanche | Autographs | $504.74 | $681.4 | 23 Edmonton Oilers | Autographs | $374.34 | $505.36 | 64 Buffalo Sabres | Autographs | $247.72 | $334.42 | 118 Carolina Hurricanes | Autographs | $190.42 | $257.07 | 43 New Jersey Devils | Autographs | $154.85 | $209.05 | 64 Seattle Kraken | Autographs | $148.01 | $199.81 | 93 Chicago Blackhawks | Autographs | $142.94 | $192.97 | 133 Edmonton Oilers | Memorabilia | $141.31 | $190.77 | 138 Pittsburgh Penguins | Autographs | $140.17 | $189.23 | 40 Toronto Maple Leafs | Autographs | $138.18 | $186.54 | 72

@@sportscardanalysis Wow I really appreciate the update. Again, great work. I know it's not an exact science.

Thanks!

I checked a week ago for the Black Diamond checklist and didn't see it. Have you seen it posted anywhere?

I think it just came out yesterday!?

Becket does have the SP and SSP autos called out. Not sure about the base and parallels. If there are hidden SPs in the base set, they are not accounted for unfortunately

Do you just assume SP is a half print and SSP is a quarter?

It’s a slippery slope with many addicts losing lots of money. For every boom, there’s dozens of busts. I started this channel because of this very fact. I bought a lot of boxes and wasn’t seeing the return. When I stepped back and analyzed the risk, I realized I was a fool. Breaks reduce the risk, which makes it a better gamble, but it’s still a gamble Please link my videos in your descriptions. I appreciate you mentioning my channel, but with the amount of my content that you cover, I’d appreciate being linked.

@@sportscardanalysis Well, you are very generous to share your homework with others. Similarly, I started a channel to convey some basic math so others would not get killed. I wanted to provide an alternative to the established culture focused solely on card value, in some imaginary world, while ignoring actual odds, sunk cost, and methodology. I equally wanted to underscore sentimental attachment and hockey community over venting, mockery, or whatever else the algos push for engagement. It's been a slow burn. But, I love the comments on my threads, and the idea we work toward more knowledge together. Anyways, to my mind you do invaluable work.

I wish I could quantify “sentimental attachment” and add it to the simulation, but that would be very imbalanced.

Awesome, thank you!

I was just working on print runs last night.

@@sportscardanalysis awesome 👌

Thanks Andy!

Great question and I appreciate the view and comment. Maybe I missed a key detail somewhere (which happens more than I wish it would). Where are you seeing 58,000 assessed print run? I didn't see anything that indicated that. What I did in lieu of that info was watched some prior Five Star breaks and figured out how and when base autos were injected into packs. It seems like there were between 8-12 base plus base parallels per case. From there I looked at how these would match against non-base and base parallels in building cases and settled on 100, assuming that some players would have more and some would have less. By setting the base autos to /100 and assuming 8 base and/or base parallels per case, the rough case count is ~6,000. I liked that round number and went with it. Not a very scientific conclusion, but the build up was fun.

@@sportscardanalysis I looked at the 1/1 odds and multiplied it out. Like the 1/1 celebrity cut signatures 10 cards, 1:2921 packs, 2 cards per pack 10*2921*2= 58420 Some of the 1/1 calculations are a little higher than 60,000 but most are around 58000 or 59000... They definitely do different amounts of base cards for different guys. I'm sure some of the cheaper rookies have like 400 print runs and the more expensive guys would be way less.... Interesting stuff!

Oh no, you're right, the Canadian conversion is off on that table. Thanks for pointing that out. Looking back at the code, I accidentally calculated the Canadian exchange rate before having the full US ROI calculated, resulting in an incomplete calculation. Sorry about that

Thank you!

I've been a little busy lately, but I do intend on adding some probability metrics in eventually. Great comment and thanks again for the thorough review

Thanks Pepperoni!

Working on one. It’s been slow, but I’m nearly done with the display of my data forms shown here. I’m also trying to code in the simulator so people can use it

@@sportscardanalysisdo you have Twitter or instagram? Think your name and work should be out there and could really impact the hobby community if more were aware

Yep. If I’m seeing this right, it comes out on the 14th. I’ll have that video hopefully end of this week or this weekend

Hey sorry for the delayed response, I got really busy at work. I had highly anticipated at /170 from the pack odds math, but wound up increasing it in the simulation slightly due to what they claimed per hobby box. For the unannounced, I can’t anticipate it. So there’s a margin of error there. Luckily SPs are so limited that they don’t really affect the analysis much.

Thanks, I want people to trust me, and that takes effort. I hope transparency helps with that

My pleasure, keep up the good work!

Well Beam Team cards are 1 per box, so somewhat rare. Corbin Carroll is a good one to hit

@@sportscardanalysis 1/30 Mariano Rivera pearl chrome!

This is incredible feedback and exactly what I hoped for. If I can help consumers, then I consider it "mission accomplished". Thank you so much for returning to reveal your results. I really appreciate the viewership and the feedback

@@sportscardanalysis No problem. The volume of cards I got was unreal. Hit a total of like 16 autos too.

Damn!!

Please let me know how you did in those breaks. I wasn't able to make a video for Sapphire, but still love that product. How'd you do in Bowman's Best?

@@sportscardanalysis so it was 14 case of sapphire 2023 draft. I had Braves players and lot. Jackson chourio and Paul Skenes. All in about 1k I hit a black out of 10 prospect for Braves. Mostly base for Braves and chourio Big hit was Green auto / 99 for Skenes. Looks pretty sharp. Will arrive this week I did pick up Skenes again for their 4 case bowman best jumbo nut waiting to fill. Might scoop Braves again but depends. Quit pricey

Thanks! Good luck

Great point. Like you mentioned, Upper Deck does this a lot and includes different pack odds for different levels of players and I love that they do that. I agree that the distribution of quality is varied between set types. Its frustrating and I have to make some assumptions, but largely I think the print runs aren't widely different within the same set. There's not really any way to account for this, so I just assume its equal. If you have any ways you'd like me to try and show this disparity, I'd love to hear ideas.

@@sportscardanalysis I'll be honest I don't think you can really show the discrepancy without real life data, and your broad strokes are still sound (Yankees, M's, and Dodgers all do great with several good prospects with great pull rates). I can say though that the mega prospects and rookies propping up Baltimore, Texas, and Boston are very tough hits - tougher than the raw odds suggest. I think I saw one Salas, one Anthony, one Clark, and one Langford auto over ten cases vs 5+ of several more middling prospects - purely base and base parallel autos not even considering inserts. Rookie autos felt like 1-2 a case (no Gunnar or Adley, in fact I don't even think non numbered autos of them exist in non inserts ). None of this we can know but I think it makes sense for folks to take your exceptional data and then look at some break recaps and see how it aligns. I've found your info to feel right often and on teams that don't rely on a couple massive names it works here too. I'd much rather drop my money on the Yankees than Sox for instance and I'm a Sox fan! Your method is sound, don't change a thing, just a caution for folks that Fanatics and Panini don't tell us that there may be 20 Kenni Gomez autos for every Tommy Troy and we can't know til others find out.

Thanks for the additional context. I agree there isn’t much I can do to show the discrepancy. I also caution folks to watch break recaps, as there might be some funny business and numbers might be off a little. Thanks for the excellent dialog

Thank you so much! Arizona is a good one in this product Good luck in your breaks. Drop back in to share your hits

Thanks Ziggy! I can look at the rookie qbs for sure. Let me get back to you on that. I’ll paste it in the replies when I have something. Might take some work to filter I am building a webpage that I am constructing the simulation tool into, but I’ve been distracted with work projects lately. I’m excited about that tool hopefully coming in spring

@@sportscardanalysis Do you need help? What can I do? Would really like to chat live. So much to say. LOVE THIS and THANK YOU

Nope, I can take care of it. I really REALLY appreciate the offer. I am looking forward to making the website/tool myself as another achievement in this journey. This has been fun to grow and hear from the community, who are all so willing to help. I will for sure reach out if I need it