Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michelle Manook, CEO of FutureCoal, for an insightful discussion on coal from a global perspective - an important yet often overlooked topic. Michelle joined FutureCoal in 2019 and previously held senior roles at Orica, Archer Energy, Brockman Mining, and Woodside. As CEO, she leads FutureCoal’s mission to support key players across the coal value chain and advocates for balanced and inclusive international energy policies that respect the sovereign rights of coal-producing and coal-consuming nations. We were delighted to visit with Michelle.
We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, beginning with an overview of FutureCoal, the significance of their rebrand from the “World Coal Association,” and Michelle’s path to the coal industry, driven by a commitment to the humanitarian aspects of energy access and poverty alleviation as well as a keen drive for a challenge. We discuss technological advancements in coal, including the improved efficiency and emissions control in modern coal plants compared to older facilities, coal’s multifaceted role beyond power generation, and the need for balanced energy policies that give coal fair access to technology investment and funding. We explore potential outcomes from COP 29 for coal, the need to expand the definition of abatement to include any emissions reduction efforts, and the impact of High-Efficiency Low-Emissions (HELE) technology and improved energy efficiency as significant contributors to emissions reductions. We cover investment trends in coal, global coal dynamics, Michelle’s views on coal’s importance for national security and international competitiveness, and the investment case for sustainable coal technologies. Michelle also emphasizes the needs and aspirations of developing nations for equitable energy access. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we can’t thank Michelle enough for sharing her time and insights with us.
As you’ll hear, Michelle references data from a few reports in our conversation. FutureCoal’s report entitled “Clean Coal Technology in ASEAN: Balancing Equity, Security & Sustainability” is linked here 21668442.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/21668442/Weblinks/FutureCoal%20Limited%20ACE_Clean_Coal_Technology_in_ASEAN_Report%20(1).pdf and FutureCoal’s report entitled “Addressing UN Sustainable Development Goals in the ASEAN Coal Value Chain” is linked here 21668442.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/21668442/Addressing-UN-Sustainable-Development-Goals-in-the-ASEAN-Coal-Value-Chain.pdf.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that many markets have rallied since Trump’s election as the 47th President of the United States. Since the election, the 10-year bond yield rose from ~4.25% to ~4.45% driven by concerns that Wednesday’s CPI report could print hotter than expected and cause the FED to head towards a temporary rate cut pause. Interest rates and the US dollar look to be moving higher on a belief that Trump’s trade policies (higher tariffs) and a push towards less regulations will lead to higher real growth and higher US deficits. On the crude oil market front, since the election, WTI has fallen roughly $4/bbl to ~$68/bbl due to optimism that Trump could quickly move towards peace negotiations in the Middle East & Ukraine. He noted that while Trump’s slogan of “Drill Baby Drill” proved to be a good campaign slogan, the reality is that US producers are laser focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns and that’s unlikely to change.
Mike further noted that some believe Trump could move to implement Iranian oil sanctions early in his term, which would be offset by ample OPEC spare capacity. On the broader equity market front, since the election the DJIA, S&P 500 & Nasdaq are all up ~4-5%, the Russell 2000 is up ~7% and Bitcoin is up ~30%. Broader equity markets are technically overbought and could easily pull back in the weeks ahead. On the energy equity front, since the election the S&P Energy sector is up ~5% with Oil Services leading (+10%) and Alternative Energy lagging (-11%). Investors are currently penalizing Alternative Energy stocks on a belief that they could be poor investments during a second Trump Presidency; however, this thesis could be flawed because during the Biden Presidency, Alternative Energy underperformed Traditional Energy by over 200% and during the first Trump Presidency, Alternative Energy outperformed Traditional Energy by over 300%. He ended by highlighting that the COP 29 Conference (United Nations Climate Change Conference) started this week in Baku, Azerbaijan, and that it could take on a whole different tone this year given the current global political backdrop. Arjun Murti emphasized that while there’s widespread belief that coal demand will decline in net-zero forecasts, the reality is that coal demand is likely to grow in emerging economies where it remains a cheap, abundant, and domestically sourced energy optio