Відео

I understand your frustration with the real estate market-it’s something many people feel strongly about. The reality is that prices are shaped by economic forces, some of which, sadly, should have been addressed sooner. Lack of adequate supply to meet the substantial increase in population has played a big part. Speculation has been another major factor-first driven by foreign investment from the early 2000s to mid-2010s, and now by the capital already injected into the market. Government policies that were not collaborative towards addressing/curbing these issues amongst municipal, provincial, and federal has played a big part. The failure of transitioning governments on all levels to maintain focus on these issues, exacerbated them further . What I can tell you is that I've never wanted, or pushed for, prices to rise to these unaffordable levels either. I have clients who have been unable to move into homes that better meet their needs, because the current market makes that incredibly challenging. My focus is on helping them succeed despite these difficulties-not on perpetuating the problem. One of the ways I do that is by staying on top of the market and sharing data that helps them make informed decision. If you’d like to discuss these issues further, I’m always open to meaningful conversations about how we can all work toward a healthier, more balanced housing market

Sounds like you are looking at it purely from an investment perspective. But wouldn't you say that looking at the entire canadian market as a whole would be a generalized approach? With the risk of overlooking the nuances of all the micro markets within it?

Not buying for another year. The economy is taking a dump

When you are ready to move forward, which city(s) and property type will you be targeting?

@@RJ_331get ready to pay more

Thank you for the kind words and for taking the time to comment. I really appreciate it!

Thanks Steven. I really appreciate that 👊

Thank you. I appreciate it.

Thanks for taking the time to comment and for the compliments Tim! I really appreciate it.👊🏽

I wouldn't say most are ex airbnb ( even though many that bought for the sole purpose of airbnb are most likely selling), but the number of investor owned condos on the market has moved up dramatically since rates started to rise. I broke down how that has changed over the last few years in my video in November of last year. I'll leave a link for it here: ua-cam.com/video/1pFolZ_HWmY/v-deo.htmlsi=C1MVgg81ij9MAKwL

Thanks for taking the time to comment and for subscribing to the channel, Owen. Are you referring to the West End neighbourhood of Downtown, near English Bay? You mentioned you're not a local. Where are you currently living?

To clarify, the goal is to move out to hurt speculators?

Certain neigbhourhoods and property types are currently in a buyer's market. What type of a property and which areas are you most interested in?

Thanks TJ! I really appreciate that. Thanks for taking the time to comment and provide feedback.

They truly are! The owner didn't spare any expense, and going with large windows is just one example of that. It helps to add to the open, airy feel while showering the space with natural light.

Thanks Sara!

Yup, supply is a big issue. Especially for certain neighbourhoods and property types.

Thanks for taking the time to comment. I always appreciate an informed, constructive conversation. You've brought up some important data points, specifically mortgage renewals and delinquencies. Although I didn't explicitly address them in the video, they were built into the year to year comparisons and 2024 projections. Here's how: Despite last year’s high number of mortgage renewals (about 900,000) and increased payments, delinquency rates stayed low(based on data taken from statscan and CMHC). I made a video last year about how the Big Banks and borrowers handled the mortgage affordability challenges( with banks getting "creative" ), if you're interested in seeing that video I'll leave the link here ua-cam.com/video/CVJUi1yt-4I/v-deo.html With approximately 1.1 million mortgages coming up for renewal, a number that is close to the 900,000 of last year, and a renewal rate difference that is also within a similar range to last year's renewals, I'd expect similar results. The unemployment rate is currently at 5.7%, down from 5.8% last month, and only slightly higher than last year's 5% during the same month. It's still well below the long term average of approximately 8%. I agree with being prudent; it's wise. But even if one could time when the market hits the valley or the peak, please keep in mind that HPI data has a lag in reflecting changes in price trends. If this year's conditions remain the same as last year, as mentioned in the video, I do expect prices to rise by the percentages shared in the video. With all this being said, I'd strongly caution buyers not to generalize and make some of the biggest mistakes I see during these types of market transitions. I'm going to release a video about that shortly. You can subscribe to be notified when it's released. Please don't hesitate to reach out again, if you have any questions. Thanks again for your insightful comment.

A large majority of buyers who are looking to get into the market for the first time, specifically median income households, will not be able to afford properties above the 500 to 600K range. Especially if they have a smaller down payment. They will need to start with a small condo. Many moves are equity based, however. Those that were able to get into the market years ago, are using their equity growth to move up into the higher priced properties.

Hi Jay I always welcome a constructive conversation but please do not use discriminatory comments towards anyone. I believe in inclusiveness and we should focus on being progressive. When it comes to the City, I do agree that they have played a big part. There is no collaboration between the different levels of government when it comes to tackling the supply side. Decades of red tape and inefficiencies within the municipalities building and development departments, along with a lack of policies to temper speculation on the federal and provincial level, have been the biggest contributors to the supply and affordability crisis.

I can understand your frustrations with the challenges of building a life in Vancouver, but please do not use discriminatory comments towards anyone. I believe in inclusiveness and we should focus on being progressive.

Supply is definitely one of the biggest contributors to prices . It's one of the main points I brought up in the video.

You can deny but it is the truth

You need drugs to maintain that dreaming lol.

You're welcome!

As insane as it sounds, it is a reality for the City of Vancouver. I'll share just a couple of examples of how the benchmark prices have moved for two general markets in the City of Vancouver to illustrate. As I always say, there will be differences between property types and neighbourhoods so if you'd like stats or graphs for a certain property type and/or neighbourhood, you can call, text, or email me: 1) Vancouver West Condos HPI Change from 2013 to 2023 2013 - $427,800 2023 - $816,300 Rise of 92% = Almost doubled 2) Vancouver East Detached Homes HPI Change from 2013 to 2023 2013 - $815,300 2023 - $1,857,100 Rise of 128% = More than doubled Calculations based on change in HPI from beginning of 2013 to the end of 2023, as of Jan 7 2024.

I think that's a great idea! I don't think the City's current plan is going to be effective in creating opportunities for many first time buyers to be able to get into the market. We need a lot more condos and we will need to restrict investment in a number of those developments, if the goal is to truly provide opportunities for first time buyers.

I wouldn't say it's evidence of a recession accelerating a drop in future market value. Investors selling are more of a reflection of interest rate conditions for the time period that this video is covering. Its a cost benefit analysis for them. Since their carrying costs(mortgage payments) have risen drastically while rents have risen restrictively, the math is not making sense for some of them to continue to hold. As I mentioned in the video, we are not seeing fire sales, at least in the City of Vancouver, but there are some neighbourhoods where there are good opportunities for buyers. With that being said, the Vancouver real estate market is very dynamic, things can, and do, change quickly. The future of the market will depend on the direction of interest rates and the level of inventory. I will continue to provide updates so if you'd like to get preferred /insider access you can email or text me to join my insiders list. I always share timely information with my clients and insiders first.

I agree that Vancouver is a highly desirable, destination city. Demand will remain strong which will continue to lead to price appreciation. Increasing the supply of condos will help alleviate some of that pressure which will help those that are looking to buy their first property. Density can be green and the City of Vancouver does continue to add policies to their construction bylaws to help with that goal. As far as foreign ownership, we currently have a ban in place to prevent that. You mentioned that the rental problem is 100% due to govt interference and that there should be zoning for rental? Please share more details about your comment about Govt interference, exactly how have they interfered? In terms of zoning for rental, are you suggesting we dedicate city blocks for rental, where only rentals can be built? or only allowing rentals in certain areas regardless of them being new?

The city should built affordable condominium for key workers like paramedics, health workers , teachers, police officers, etc., that is partly owned by the city and the buyers. In this way , people can able to enter the property ladder. This is what the city of London in UK did. Instead of letting these foreigners build these condominiums without occupants 😡

100% the government denied foreign investors inflating property costs meanwhile in West van all the mansions sit empty and have for over 10 years now. They did it so they could rake in all the inflated property taxes. Now the problem is so obvious and they think the ‘empty homes tax’ is enough 😑 it’s Pennie’s to these people.

@@joycemerchadesch597They are doing that at park royal but the condos that they are selling for these people they can’t afford. What we need to do is KICK OUT all properties that the owners weren’t born here and don’t live here. China is also taking advantage of our country via bringing last term pregnant woman into Canada so that there children are ‘Canadian citizens’ imagine all the money that costs! We can’t buy property in china and even if we are born there don’t become citizens who can take advantage of their country so why the hell are we allowing it here? Oh yeah cause our PM is owned by china.

We currently have a foreign buyer ban in effect Marie Louise. But with that being said, we are still dealing with the aftermath of a large injection of foreign capital prior to. That injection of capital has contributed to another pivotal player in the substantial rise in prices, which is local speculation. Affordability and rising prices has become a worldwide issue for many major cities. We need to address the supply side to match the demand, while finding a healthy balance of allowing/limiting investment while also providing opportunities for the young generation, and for those that are immigrating/settling here, to be able to buy. Without those opportunities they may choose to move elsewhere, leaving a big void in the jobs/professions that are needed for the future health of our city and its economy.

It's true that some ignore the demand side, which is a flawed approach. I do agree with you on that, Cowabunga Dude (great name by the way!). Both supply and demand are inherently connected and should be considered together. However, the goal of this video was to share with the viewer how likely the supply plan is to succeed at providing affordable homes to match the demand. Because that’s exactly what the NDP have stated as their goal. Is the action in alignment with their goal? Is their goal realistic? Is it genuine or just lip service?

Not everything we don’t like is related to political correctness.

Yes, the average income is around that number and at the 7 min mark, I clearly state the price point that is needed for median income households. The goal of the video was to share with the viewers what can be expected under the City's current plan and what will be needed to help with affordability for median income households who are looking to buy for the first time. You say it's time for a major crash, that's a strong word. Could you elaborate, with details, on how that will happen?

Ain't gonna happen.

Thanks alot for watching, for the kind words, and for sharing! I really appreciate it 🙌

They got their cut I'm sure

Thanks Sara! I really appreciate the feedback!

I will be following the stats and conditions very closely Szymon. Spring is the busiest time of the year for sales and listing activity, so the inventory could definitely climb further. With that being said, the number of sellers who own to live vs those that are investors(in downtown) could also fall if they don't feel it makes sense for them to sell. It could counter balance the rise in investor owned condos, and keep the inventory from climbing as much as it would otherwise. Time will tell, but as I mentioned I will definitely be monitoring and continuously be updating.

@@mannygrewalrealestate Yeah the spring market is supposed to be a big one, but the fall market was supposed to be big too. If interest rates don’t drop by the spring time, it could be another 3 months of sales at 30% below seasonal average. Historically, interest rates don’t drop until right before a recession, in which case it could be totally dead. Either way, it’s not looking good.

Agreed Szymon, the fall market is the second most active time of the year. Im doubtful the variable rates will drop by a noticeable amount by the spring. The fixed rates could, especially if the Bank of Canada continues to hold rates because that should help bring down the bond yields with investors exploring stocks vs focusing on bonds mostly, as they have been lately. What I have seen with the City of Vancouver specifically, is that the sales are definitely down significantly compared to the 10 year average, but the reason prices have risen or stayed stable, for the most part, is due to the fact inventory has also been on the low side. But as I mentioned in this video, there will be opportunities for buyers in certain neighbourhoods and for certain property types, where there will be some downward pressure on pricing. You sound like a numbers guy, analytical, just as I am. Never hesitate to touchbase if you have specific questions or share your thoughts. I enjoy having these types of conversations.

The market is going to warm up mid 2024, it will catch on fire in 2025. Mark my words

I do expect the market to become more active in 2024 Demetri. In fact I just released one of my two forecast videos for 2024, a few days ago. It was on the topic of mortgage rates. The second video will be coming out in a few weeks. One of the main topics in this Hidden Shift video, was about the rise in the number of investor owned condo sales. Its reflective of the rise in carrying costs for investors, which has lead to a percentage of investors choosing to sell vs continuing to hold. This change has created opportunities for buyers in some neighbourhoods. This video was about the current state of the market vs a forecast of what's to come.

I couldn't agree more Simon. The so called "experts" keep doubling down and continue to be wrong. They also generalize which is a fundamental flaw in their analysis since real estate markets are driven by local factors. This is why I created this video to share the facts on our local market here, specifically in the City of Vancouver. Even the lower mainland has differences between its cities and furthermore, even the cities have differences between their neighbourhoods. Yes, we've had minor corrections over the years but the long term has been up. That's the way it will continue to be because while the world population continues to increase we continue to be land locked with ineffective strategies to increase supply.